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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?

    One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.

    To my knowledge, we've had 1,818 polls since the previous election.
    I've estimated that between now and Election Day we will have just 200 Westminster VI polls.

    So 2,000 in this parliament
    200 more EMICIPM??... may God have mercy on our souls.
    Iff the The Ashcroft poll was a harbinger then it will be 200 EMICAWNBPM (Ed Miliband is crap and will never be Prime Minister)
    Ah Ashcroft, the new Gold Standard.
    I'm prepared to upgrade Ashcroft to the Platinum Standard.
    ELBOW showing Ed as PM is the Unobtanium Standard
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:

    Aberdeen North
    Ayrshire North & Arran
    Dunbartonshire East
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    Edinburgh West
    Glasgow North
    Glasgow East
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
    Kilmarnock & Loudoun
    Stirling

    That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.

    Actually, thinking aout this a bit more I'd want a poll of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Various results It would say a lot about the SNP, the Lib Dems, and the Conservatives.
    Seconded. I've got a bet on the Tories for that. I fear I may lose.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:

    McMurphyism

    Like it.

    "Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the violent, extremists known as the SNP? Well, we'll let you off if you give us your vote.'

    I wonder whether the hearings will be held in public? McMurphyism is a play on both McCarthyism and Blairism, so you can add Old SLAB to the question above. Anyone unwilling to swear allegiance to New SLAB, will be exiled to the SNP. After GE2015 I expect New SLAB will attempt to takeover the London Head Office, the hearings will then recommence.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, so we know your views on Roxburgh & Selkirk, but what about Peebles? Will all the realms of the Black Adder fall to the SNP?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704

    O/T - I'm not sure about Flick Drummonds latest campaign poster for Portsmouth South:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/01/flick-drummond/

    Her opponents are going to be out with the Tippex.....
    I know a few Tories who were tempted to umlaut Huhne in Eastleigh at the last election, and the one before.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704

    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, so we know your views on Roxburgh & Selkirk, but what about Peebles? Will all the realms of the Black Adder fall to the SNP?

    Went to school for a few years in Peebles actually, but almost 20 years ago now! If it was in England it'd be a very Tory middle-England market town. Fairly wealthy too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    May 2015 website now forecasting that Con would win most seats if the GE was held today - ie based on today's polls, making no allowance for projected changes between now and May 7th.

    They predict Con 284, Lab 269 based on vote shares of Con 32.6, Lab 32.4.

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MikeL said:

    May 2015 website now forecasting that Con would win most seats if the GE was held today - ie based on today's polls, making no allowance for projected changes between now and May 7th.

    They predict Con 284, Lab 269 based on vote shares of Con 32.6, Lab 32.4.

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

    Lab most votes, Con most seats is available at 20/1 with Paddys. Possibly a smidgen of value.
  • MikeL said:

    May 2015 website now forecasting that Con would win most seats if the GE was held today - ie based on today's polls, making no allowance for projected changes between now and May 7th.

    They predict Con 284, Lab 269 based on vote shares of Con 32.6, Lab 32.4.

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

    Lab most votes, Con most seats is available at 20/1 with Paddys. Possibly a smidgen of value.
    I'm on that bet at 100/1.

    If it comes off, I won't mention it. Much.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?

    One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.

    To my knowledge, we've had 1,818 polls since the previous election.
    I've estimated that between now and Election Day we will have just 200 Westminster VI polls.

    So 2,000 in this parliament
    200 more EMICIPM??... may God have mercy on our souls.
    Iff the The Ashcroft poll was a harbinger then it will be 200 EMICAWNBPM (Ed Miliband is crap and will never be Prime Minister)
    Ah Ashcroft, the new Gold Standard.
    I'm prepared to upgrade Ashcroft to the Platinum Standard.
    ELBOW showing Ed as PM is the Unobtanium Standard
    I've still yet to calculate ELBOW for this week, including the Ashcroft. More this weekend!

    What I can say is that if you ELBOW just the Ashcroft and the Populus, the Blue team are just ahead!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Terror threat highest since 9/11 with up to 5,000 fanatics at large after returning from Syria, warns Europe's police chief

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908147/Major-security-alert-triggered-jihadists-boasted-killed-British-soldier-amid-growing-fears-ISIS-style-attacks-UK.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Former Liberal Party donor dies.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30803931
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    May 2015 website now forecasting that Con would win most seats if the GE was held today - ie based on today's polls, making no allowance for projected changes between now and May 7th.

    They predict Con 284, Lab 269 based on vote shares of Con 32.6, Lab 32.4.

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

    Lab most votes, Con most seats is available at 20/1 with Paddys. Possibly a smidgen of value.
    Funny isn't it - we were told for years that:

    - The boundaries were unfair
    - Turnout is far higher in Con seats
    - Lab's vote is far more efficient.

    ........ so if they are equal on votes then Lab must be miles ahead on seats.

    Of course some of the above is true to some degree but it's not the whole story.

    eg One thing never mentioned by anyone on here is that the part of the UK with the fastest growing population by miles over the last 15 years has been Inner London - where almost all seats are Lab.

  • Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo
  • Do we now refer to Nigel Farage as "an unpronounceable symbol"

    also known as the "Love Symbol"

    Nigel's new symbols/name letter "W" followed by an "anchor" symbol.
    I think you've confused him with that nice Mark Reckless.
    I'll send you a vanilla message in a few minutes.

    Which will amuse you.
    I can confirm I have bet now on both Burnley and Sunderland.

    Hedged.
  • What is it with people on Fox News?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    It's funny how the Guardian cut out one of the list of three things he mentioned in its subtitle:

    He claimed that big ghettos had been allowed to develop, and the authorities in the UK and elsewhere were turning a blind eye to issues including the sexual exploitation scandals in Rotherham and Rochdale, female genital mutilation and the application of sharia law.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
  • Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    I feel really sorry for the likes of Richard Tyndall.

    Their worst fears are coming true.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    RodCrosby said:

    Terror threat highest since 9/11 with up to 5,000 fanatics at large after returning from Syria, warns Europe's police chief

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908147/Major-security-alert-triggered-jihadists-boasted-killed-British-soldier-amid-growing-fears-ISIS-style-attacks-UK.html

    When was the last time the terror threat was "normal". Has it ever been so since 9/11? And will it ever return there?

    The security services don't exactly have an incentive to do that given their budgets and empires depend on it continuing to be 'substantial', 'severe', 'critical', 'apocalyptic' or whatever other hyperbole they use these days.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    Of course - discussing the lack of integration in European society should never be mentioned after several French citizens attacked their own country. The only appropriate conversation after such an event is the exploitation of the tragedy to expand the powers of the state in ways that wouldn't have helped.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    "Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen.

    At all events, the discussion of future grave but, with effort now, avoidable evils is the most unpopular and at the same time the most necessary occupation for the politician. Those who knowingly shirk it deserve, and not infrequently receive, the curses of those who come after."
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    That's one approach to campaigning I suppose.

  • John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 2m2 minutes ago
    Greens should be in TV debates, & Cameron is a coward: ComRes for ITVNews
    http://t.co/tY1UGS6hWA
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    "Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen.

    At all events, the discussion of future grave but, with effort now, avoidable evils is the most unpopular and at the same time the most necessary occupation for the politician. Those who knowingly shirk it deserve, and not infrequently receive, the curses of those who come after."
    Is this the latest round of "Powell or Hitchens"?

    I'm going to go with Powell for this one. It's too eloquent to be Hitchens.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    "Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen.

    At all events, the discussion of future grave but, with effort now, avoidable evils is the most unpopular and at the same time the most necessary occupation for the politician. Those who knowingly shirk it deserve, and not infrequently receive, the curses of those who come after."
    Is this the latest round of "Powell or Hitchens"?

    I'm going to go with Powell for this one. It's too eloquent to be Hitchens.

    Enoch saying 47 years ago what people like TSE realised last week
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    Socrates said:

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    Of course - discussing the lack of integration in European society should never be mentioned after several French citizens attacked their own country. The only appropriate conversation after such an event is the exploitation of the tragedy to expand the powers of the state in ways that wouldn't have helped.
    Farage does need to watch the tone and balance of his comments though. If he becomes too toxic we might not win the referendum for EU withdrawal.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    ISIS release video of a child executing two "Russian spies"
    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=259_1421161182

    [Warning, graphic: Debate over whether fake or real]
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    "Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen.

    At all events, the discussion of future grave but, with effort now, avoidable evils is the most unpopular and at the same time the most necessary occupation for the politician. Those who knowingly shirk it deserve, and not infrequently receive, the curses of those who come after."
    Is this the latest round of "Powell or Hitchens"?

    I'm going to go with Powell for this one. It's too eloquent to be Hitchens.

    Enoch saying 47 years ago what people like TSE realised last week
    Yay! I'm in the lead!

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 2m2 minutes ago
    Greens should be in TV debates, & Cameron is a coward: ComRes for ITVNews
    http://t.co/tY1UGS6hWA

    Cameron is considered to be acting cowardly by more than two to one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    MikeL said:

    May 2015 website now forecasting that Con would win most seats if the GE was held today - ie based on today's polls, making no allowance for projected changes between now and May 7th.

    They predict Con 284, Lab 269 based on vote shares of Con 32.6, Lab 32.4.

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

    Lab most votes, Con most seats is available at 20/1 with Paddys. Possibly a smidgen of value.
    I'm on that bet at 100/1.

    If it comes off, I won't mention it. Much.
    I'm also on, some at 100-1 - but it is a net loser for me if it comes off. Filled a £500 betting hole mind.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    Nigel stoking the fires.
    "Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen.

    At all events, the discussion of future grave but, with effort now, avoidable evils is the most unpopular and at the same time the most necessary occupation for the politician. Those who knowingly shirk it deserve, and not infrequently receive, the curses of those who come after."
    Is this the latest round of "Powell or Hitchens"?

    I'm going to go with Powell for this one. It's too eloquent to be Hitchens.

    Enoch saying 47 years ago what people like TSE realised last week
    TSE and his fellow Tories are just getting upset because Farage is calling out the double standards of the establishment and breaking the conspiracy of silence they've managed to maintain by throwing around the racist card wherever possible.

    What really shows their panic is that the establishment centre-left started giving up on that tactic a couple of years ago, and tried arguing their case instead. In the last six months, they've realised that they lost that argument, and are now playing the racist card more than ever before. It's truly desperate.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,034
    Plato said:

    I've recently bought a Kindle and downloaded Call Of The Wild by Jack London for free - what are your titles called - will give them a try.

    I still prefer paper, but sure I can get used to the electronic format with a bit of willpower.

    Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].

    The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."

    Shamelessly...
    Ms Plato, if you enjoy political intrigue around things like the debates and election campaigns, feel free to try the free samples of "The Fourth Lectern" and "The Fifth Lectern", available at all good Amazons everywhere :-)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Nigel tells it like it is. There are many areas, especially in Paris outskirts, where non moslems dare not stray. Sad but true.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited January 2015
    YouGov/TimesRedBox asked similar debate questions today and found similar answers.

    75% expect debates to happen 14% No
    54% Cameron should take part regardless of Greens 27% No
    22% think Cameron genuinely wants debates.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Very surprising that all the Jewish victims of the French killers are to be buried in Israel. It rather shows where their loyalties lie and also their relationship with the french state. In England I would be very surprised if any Jew would have made the same choice and those that might-the ultra Orthodox-wouldn't be able to because they'd have to be buried within 24 hours.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    Mehdi Hassan arguing that we should censor speech on the grounds of "decency". This from the guy that called non-Muslims unthinking animals. What an odious little twerp.

    Of course, being a left-wing bigot is acceptable among the media establishment. Also see Abbott, Diane.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Roger said:

    Very surprising that all the Jewish victims of the French killers are to be buried in Israel. It rather shows where their loyalties lie and also their relationship with the french state. In England I would be very surprised if any Jew would have made the same choice and those that might-the ultra Orthodox-wouldn't be able to because they'd have to be buried within 24 hours.

    the superspy "Maxwell"?
  • Roger said:

    Very surprising that all the Jewish victims of the French killers are to be buried in Israel. It rather shows where their loyalties lie and also their relationship with the french state. In England I would be very surprised if any Jew would have made the same choice and those that might-the ultra Orthodox-wouldn't be able to because they'd have to be buried within 24 hours.

    Roberty Maxwell?
  • Roger said:

    Very surprising that all the Jewish victims of the French killers are to be buried in Israel. It rather shows where their loyalties lie and also their relationship with the french state. In England I would be very surprised if any Jew would have made the same choice and those that might-the ultra Orthodox-wouldn't be able to because they'd have to be buried within 24 hours.

    Roberty Maxwell?
    Blimey, I didn't know him that well!

    Robert Maxwell

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Socrates said:

    Mehdi Hassan arguing that we should censor speech on the grounds of "decency". This from the guy that called non-Muslims unthinking animals. What an odious little twerp.

    Of course, being a left-wing bigot is acceptable among the media establishment. Also see Abbott, Diane.

    I'll be watching QT with him and Starkey this week.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    Given the latest opinion polls, the TV channels have now got very strong grounds to go ahead. The vast majority think they should happen, and by a 2-to-1 margin, feel Cameron is being cowardly. If they empty chaired him, people would blame Cameron, not them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Socrates, some years ago (I'd guess around 2009, but could be off a bit) Hasan was on an Any Questions edition hosted by a mosque. He claimed, to applause, that Muslims were treated like Jews in 1930s Germany.

    Now, modern history isn't my forte, as you know, but that's so unforgivably inaccurate it makes Mr. Eagles' assessment of Caesar appear objective and insightful.

    Incidentally, the sensei of censorship will be appearing on Question Time. Alongside David Starkey. Shame Douglas Murray isn't on, but there we are.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:

    Given the latest opinion polls, the TV channels have now got very strong grounds to go ahead. The vast majority think they should happen, and by a 2-to-1 margin, feel Cameron is being cowardly. If they empty chaired him, people would blame Cameron, not them.

    Why is everyone getting so hot under the collar?
    The broadcasters simply invite the Greens... end of story. Unless, of course, Miliband is too frit to debate with them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015

    Socrates said:

    Given the latest opinion polls, the TV channels have now got very strong grounds to go ahead. The vast majority think they should happen, and by a 2-to-1 margin, feel Cameron is being cowardly. If they empty chaired him, people would blame Cameron, not them.

    Why is everyone getting so hot under the collar?
    The broadcasters simply invite the Greens... end of story. Unless, of course, Miliband is too frit to debate with them.
    Did you hear the real reason Dave wants the Greens on?

    He thinks Natalie Bennett droning on will turn the whole thing into such a bore fest that it will neutralise the Farage effect

    Ah democracy
  • Pulpstar said:

    Socrates said:

    Mehdi Hassan arguing that we should censor speech on the grounds of "decency". This from the guy that called non-Muslims unthinking animals. What an odious little twerp.

    Of course, being a left-wing bigot is acceptable among the media establishment. Also see Abbott, Diane.

    I'll be watching QT with him and Starkey this week.
    I'll probably give it a miss - any decent films on TV this Thursday? Last Thursday, "Total Recall" was on ITV4 :)
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    antifrank said:

    I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:

    Aberdeen North
    Ayrshire North & Arran
    Dunbartonshire East
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    Edinburgh West
    Glasgow North
    Glasgow East
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
    Kilmarnock & Loudoun
    Stirling

    That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.

    A good cross-section, I wonder if Gordon would be worth including. Even though its a dead cert for the SNP, it would be good to tease out tactical voting appetite among the Unionist supporters.

    For some bizarre reason SLAB have put up a chap called Braden Davy as their candidate. He is a 22 year old Englishman, whose only experience outside off politics was working as a cleaner in McDonalds. It appears that SLAB lack good candidates as well as supporters. His facebook page is worth a look:

    https://www.facebook.com/BradenDavyforGordon/timeline?ref=page_internal
  • What is it with people on Fox News?

    Quoting Sandi Toksvig: "It's called 'Fox News' because it does"
  • ashleyashley Posts: 19
    Socrates said:

    Mehdi Hassan arguing that we should censor speech on the grounds of "decency". This from the guy that called non-Muslims unthinking animals. What an odious little twerp.

    Of course, being a left-wing bigot is acceptable among the media establishment. Also see Abbott, Diane.

    you call it censoring free speech.

    others might call it common decency.

    unless for some reason it really flicks your switch to deliberately and needlessly offend certain people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    edited January 2015
    So voters polled by Comres think the Greens should be in the debates by 50% to 24%, Cameron was right to refuse to go ahead without them https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/555063734394425344?lang=en-gb
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Interestingly Canada has had debates in the past including the Bloc Quebecois, despite reservations they only stand in Quebec, plus the main parties the Tories, Liberals and NDP and sometimes the Greens and Reform too. So there is precedent for the UK having at least 1 debate with the 3 main parties, UKIP, the Greens and SNP
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_leaders_debates
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What happened to @Hugh?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Ashley, that's the nub. If we ban things that aren't 'decent' then we don't have free speech.

    Freedom includes the freedom to deride, offend, insult and parody. If you impose a gate marked 'decency' through which utterances must pass, then the gatekeeper (in this instance three dead men with machine guns) determines what is permitted to be said.

    That's not freedom.

    The imposition of one culture or religion's social rules upon those not of that faith is the antithesis of a free society.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Plaid may need to be added too. As the main parties have no MPs in Northern Ireland it may make sense for NI to have its own debate broadcast only there at the same time as the UK debate featuring the DUP, SF, SDLP, UUP and Alliance.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    So voters polled by Comres think the Greens should be in the debates by 50% to 24%, Cameron was right to refuse to go ahead without them https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/555063734394425344?lang=en-gb

    Except an even bigger number think Cameron is a coward for doing so. Hard luck!

    When danger raised its ugly head,
    he bravely turned his tail and fled...
  • ashleyashley Posts: 19

    Mr. Ashley, that's the nub. If we ban things that aren't 'decent' then we don't have free speech.

    Freedom includes the freedom to deride, offend, insult and parody. If you impose a gate marked 'decency' through which utterances must pass, then the gatekeeper (in this instance three dead men with machine guns) determines what is permitted to be said.

    That's not freedom.

    The imposition of one culture or religion's social rules upon those not of that faith is the antithesis of a free society.

    who said anything about bans?

    there are certain things I wouldn't say or do to people despite them being perfectly legal.

    because I'm not a complete ahole who wants to needlessly offend certain people for some reason.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2015
    ashley said:

    Socrates said:

    Mehdi Hassan arguing that we should censor speech on the grounds of "decency". This from the guy that called non-Muslims unthinking animals. What an odious little twerp.

    Of course, being a left-wing bigot is acceptable among the media establishment. Also see Abbott, Diane.

    you call it censoring free speech.

    others might call it common decency.

    unless for some reason it really flicks your switch to deliberately and needlessly offend certain people.
    "Common decency" is not walking into a church service and start up a muslim call to prayer mid service, or reading a book about Hitler in front of a synagogue or waving a Hebdo magazine about in a mosque.

    It is NOT about restricting the free press.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:

    HYUFD said:

    So voters polled by Comres think the Greens should be in the debates by 50% to 24%, Cameron was right to refuse to go ahead without them https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/555063734394425344?lang=en-gb

    Except an even bigger number think Cameron is a coward for doing so. Hard luck!

    When danger raised its ugly head,
    he bravely turned his tail and fled...
    Ah, a timely reminder of the day Nigel Farage did a runner from UKIP's 'Mini Carnival' in Croydon, the big old scaredy cat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    The interesting question is not whether Cameron is frit, it is why he is frit. He did okay last time.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    edited January 2015
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting question is not whether Cameron is frit, it is why he is frit. He did okay last time.

    Why is Milliband frit to debate with the Greens?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Also, is anyone aware that according to the English Democrats' chairman, Robin Tillbrook, their position is now for full English independence, not just an English Parliament and for English exit from the UK and EU. So the English now have their very own nationalist party to match the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26583314
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    edited January 2015
    Socrates Well of course his motivation was partly cowardice that UKIP would split his vote, just as Miliband's is that the Greens will split his vote, does not change the fact voters want both UKIP and the Greens in the debates!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting question is not whether Cameron is frit, it is why he is frit. He did okay last time.

    He thinks the debates almost cost him the election in 2010GE, and were to blame for him failing to win a majority.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    HYUFD said:

    Also, is anyone aware that according to the English Democrats' chairman, Robin Tillbrook, their position is now for full English independence, not just an English Parliament and for English exit from the UK and EU. So the English now have their very own nationalist party to match the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26583314

    francis will be delighted!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Ashley, offence is not merely given, it must also be taken.

    We cannot have a world whereby 'offence' alone is sufficient for condemnation to be heaped upon an utterance because we then hand the keys to freedom of speech to the most ridiculously over-sensitive drama queens. People take offence at all kinds of things. Why should they have the whip hand? Why should they be able to curtail what others can say?

    I'm a free man, should I not be able to express my own thoughts without submitting them for approval to a committee of the over-sensitive and potentially violent?

    I'm not arguing that people insult others for the sake of it, merely that freedom of speech necessarily means they have that right. Freedom means the right to say things others disagree with.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    Socrates said:
    Please tell me the Tories aren't still pushing that one. Good way to add a further 75k a year to the net immigration figures.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550

    Roger said:

    Very surprising that all the Jewish victims of the French killers are to be buried in Israel. It rather shows where their loyalties lie and also their relationship with the french state. In England I would be very surprised if any Jew would have made the same choice and those that might-the ultra Orthodox-wouldn't be able to because they'd have to be buried within 24 hours.

    Roberty Maxwell?
    Blimey, I didn't know him that well!

    Robert Maxwell

    He lives on in posterity due to giving his name to the maxwellisation procedure (cf Iraq enquiry process).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,034
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting question is not whether Cameron is frit, it is why he is frit. He did okay last time.

    The balance of benefit-versus-loss probably doesn't look good to him.
    On one side, he might make ground against Miliband, but the chance of a UKIPgasm would probably have him very very nervous.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    If the Greens do not take part Cameron should insist he will only debate in a head to head with Miliband
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015

    Socrates said:
    Please tell me the Tories aren't still pushing that one. Good way to add a further 75k a year to the net immigration figures.
    He was pushing it just before Christmas:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html

    People need to get it out their heads that the Tories want to reduce immigration. They don't. They just want headline initiatives to pretend they're doing something about it.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    So voters polled by Comres think the Greens should be in the debates by 50% to 24%, Cameron was right to refuse to go ahead without them https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/555063734394425344?lang=en-gb

    YouGov poll on the debates which shows 53% for Sturgeon inclusion:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ph2go8efpw/RedBoxResults_150109_leaders_debates_Website.pdf

    Perhaps SNP inclusion could be another redline for Dave. At the end of the day he has nothing to lose, but Ed has the whole of Scotland to lose, Sturgeon at the table with no Murphy would be a blow for SLAB.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Roger said:

    Very surprising that all the Jewish victims of the French killers are to be buried in Israel. It rather shows where their loyalties lie and also their relationship with the french state. In England I would be very surprised if any Jew would have made the same choice and those that might-the ultra Orthodox-wouldn't be able to because they'd have to be buried within 24 hours.

    Roberty Maxwell?
    Blimey, I didn't know him that well!

    Robert Maxwell

    He lives on in posterity due to giving his name to the maxwellisation procedure (cf Iraq enquiry process).
    He lives on in notoriety for a lot more than that!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Greens tied with Tories amongst 18-24 year olds

    Labour 32%, Tories 22%, Greens 22%, UKIP 13%, LDs 5%
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/13/greens-tied-conservatives-among-young-people/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    ashley said:

    Socrates said:

    Mehdi Hassan arguing that we should censor speech on the grounds of "decency". This from the guy that called non-Muslims unthinking animals. What an odious little twerp.

    Of course, being a left-wing bigot is acceptable among the media establishment. Also see Abbott, Diane.

    you call it censoring free speech.

    others might call it common decency.

    unless for some reason it really flicks your switch to deliberately and needlessly offend certain people.
    Governments banning speech does not fall under any sense of decency. The autocrats are out in force today...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    HYUFD said:

    Greens tied with Tories amongst 18-24 year olds

    Labour 32%, Tories 22%, Greens 22%, UKIP 13%, LDs 5%
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/13/greens-tied-conservatives-among-young-people/

    If only the buggers voted!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2015
    @‌Neil

    He's fat,
    He's round,
    He's never at The Ground,
    Captain Bob,
    Captain Bob.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?

    One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.

    To my knowledge, we've had 1,818 polls since the previous election.
    I've estimated that between now and Election Day we will have just 200 Westminster VI polls.

    So 2,000 in this parliament
    200 more EMICIPM??... may God have mercy on our souls.
    Iff the The Ashcroft poll was a harbinger then it will be 200 EMICAWNBPM (Ed Miliband is crap and will never be Prime Minister)
    Ah Ashcroft, the new Gold Standard.
    I'm prepared to upgrade Ashcroft to the Platinum Standard.
    ELBOW showing Ed as PM is the Unobtanium Standard
    I've still yet to calculate ELBOW for this week, including the Ashcroft. More this weekend!

    What I can say is that if you ELBOW just the Ashcroft and the Populus, the Blue team are just ahead!
    I eagerly await the appearence of Sunil the Alchemist, turning unobtainium into gold.....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    edited January 2015
    Calum I agree, and Canada sets a precedent as I pointed out earlier for including a regional nationalist party, the BQ in a general election debate. Indeed, the 2008 Canadian General election debate included Harper for the Tories, Dion for the Liberals, Layton for the NDP, Duceppe for the BQ and May for the Greens. Reform Party Leader Preston Manning, the Canadian version of Farage, took part in the 1993 Canadian election debate
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_leaders_debates
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:
    Please tell me the Tories aren't still pushing that one. Good way to add a further 75k a year to the net immigration figures.
    He was pushing it just before Christmas:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html

    People need to get it out their heads that the Tories want to reduce immigration. They don't. They just want headline initiatives to pretend they're doing something about it.
    Christ on a bike. Well, there's an open goal for UKIP to kick at there.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    calum said:

    HYUFD said:

    So voters polled by Comres think the Greens should be in the debates by 50% to 24%, Cameron was right to refuse to go ahead without them https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/555063734394425344?lang=en-gb

    YouGov poll on the debates which shows 53% for Sturgeon inclusion:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ph2go8efpw/RedBoxResults_150109_leaders_debates_Website.pdf

    Perhaps SNP inclusion could be another redline for Dave. At the end of the day he has nothing to lose, but Ed has the whole of Scotland to lose, Sturgeon at the table with no Murphy would be a blow for SLAB.
    Have three debates:

    - One for all parties
    - One for all four major parties
    - One for the big two
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    I doubt Murphy's absence would make much difference, ironically Sturgeon's ratings are so high in Scotland relative to Miliband's, if Miliband only manages to stay breathing he may improve his rating and if Sturgeon slips up so much the better for him
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Christ on a bike.

    Surely in the interests of free speech you should be saying 'Mohamed' on a bike...

    Je suis Charlie
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Neil Well if the Greens are excluded from the debates that will only hit youth turnout even more
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    edited January 2015

    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, so we know your views on Roxburgh & Selkirk, but what about Peebles? Will all the realms of the Black Adder fall to the SNP?

    Went to school for a few years in Peebles actually, but almost 20 years ago now! If it was in England it'd be a very Tory middle-England market town. Fairly wealthy too.
    It's a fine burgh with a still pretty good high street of shops. I've always thought that it was the then LD's incumbent Jeremy Purvis's advocacy of the big supermarkets and his opposition to the SNP large supermarket levy that was one reason for him losing - if you can call it losing to be rewarded for failure with a peerage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    calum said:

    antifrank said:

    I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:

    Aberdeen North
    Ayrshire North & Arran
    Dunbartonshire East
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    Edinburgh West
    Glasgow North
    Glasgow East
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
    Kilmarnock & Loudoun
    Stirling

    That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.

    A good cross-section, I wonder if Gordon would be worth including. Even though its a dead cert for the SNP, it would be good to tease out tactical voting appetite among the Unionist supporters.

    For some bizarre reason SLAB have put up a chap called Braden Davy as their candidate. He is a 22 year old Englishman, whose only experience outside off politics was working as a cleaner in McDonalds. It appears that SLAB lack good candidates as well as supporters. His facebook page is worth a look:

    https://www.facebook.com/BradenDavyforGordon/timeline?ref=page_internal
    Ah, that name rings a bell ... yes, how not to get your vote:

    http://misssymartin.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/still-working.html

    And it's not his first party either, as he is the founder of the Northumbria Party, dedicated to fighting the pampered Scots (or the pampering of Scots), it seems:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-cream-of-the-crop/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:
    Please tell me the Tories aren't still pushing that one. Good way to add a further 75k a year to the net immigration figures.
    He was pushing it just before Christmas:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html

    People need to get it out their heads that the Tories want to reduce immigration. They don't. They just want headline initiatives to pretend they're doing something about it.
    Christ on a bike. Well, there's an open goal for UKIP to kick at there.
    Indeed. Compare to the last two that joined

    Population:

    Romania: 20 million
    Bulgaria: 7 million
    Turkey: 75 million

    Speaking of Romania and Bulgaria, I see more than 100k have signed up for new National Insurance numbers in the 12 months to September, 2014. It's bound to be further north of that in the 12 months to December (the first full year of them having free movement).

    And MigrationWatch were accused of "scaremongering" when they predicted 50,000 a year...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Socrates said:
    I had thought the Turks themselves were less keen on the idea in recent years. Indeed, they seem to be moving further from the possibility, though I have no idea how the glacially moving, if at all, process is officially going.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    calum said:



    For some bizarre reason SLAB have put up a chap called Braden Davy as their candidate. He is a 22 year old Englishman, whose only experience outside off politics was working as a cleaner in McDonalds. It appears that SLAB lack good candidates as well as supporters. His facebook page is worth a look:

    What's wrong with his experience being a cleaner in McDonalds? I thought the consensus was we needed more "normal people" in politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Carnyx Gordon could be a surprise LD hold if the Tories and Labour vote tactically for the local LD candidate to keep Salmond out. Gordon voted No in the referendum comfortably. Salmond may have been better advised to stand in Yes voting Glasgow or Dundee where Labour is facing wipe-out
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx Gordon could be a surprise LD hold if the Tories and Labour vote tactically for the local LD candidate to keep Salmond out. Gordon voted No in the referendum comfortably. Salmond may have been better advised to stand in Yes voting Glasgow or Dundee where Labour is facing wipe-out

    Surely the Lib Dems would be needing an INCREASE in their vote to hold Gordon? Even if they do exceedingly well with tactical votes, that will surely be out of their reach.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,704
    taffys said:

    Christ on a bike.

    Surely in the interests of free speech you should be saying 'Mohamed' on a bike...

    Je suis Charlie

    I'm not sure a bike would be his style. I'm trying to find somewhere I can buy Charlie Hebdo this week.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Socrates said:

    Nigel Farage: no-go zones for non-Muslims in most French cities

    Ukip leader speaks on Charlie Hebdo attack on Fox News, insisting UK turning blind eye to FGM and sharia law

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/nigel-farage-ukip-no-go-zones-non-muslim-france-charlie-hebdo

    It's funny how the Guardian cut out one of the list of three things he mentioned in its subtitle:

    He claimed that big ghettos had been allowed to develop, and the authorities in the UK and elsewhere were turning a blind eye to issues including the sexual exploitation scandals in Rotherham and Rochdale, female genital mutilation and the application of sharia law.
    What's weird is how Nigel Farage or any politician outside "the mainstream" uttering statements of the blindingly obvious is considered intolerable
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    ashley said:

    Mr. Ashley, that's the nub. If we ban things that aren't 'decent' then we don't have free speech.

    Freedom includes the freedom to deride, offend, insult and parody. If you impose a gate marked 'decency' through which utterances must pass, then the gatekeeper (in this instance three dead men with machine guns) determines what is permitted to be said.

    That's not freedom.

    The imposition of one culture or religion's social rules upon those not of that faith is the antithesis of a free society.

    who said anything about bans?

    there are certain things I wouldn't say or do to people despite them being perfectly legal.

    because I'm not a complete ahole who wants to needlessly offend certain people for some reason.
    Nor do I. But, nor do I think extremists should be allowed to stipulate what is and is not acceptable speech.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx Gordon could be a surprise LD hold if the Tories and Labour vote tactically for the local LD candidate to keep Salmond out. Gordon voted No in the referendum comfortably. Salmond may have been better advised to stand in Yes voting Glasgow or Dundee where Labour is facing wipe-out

    On the other hand, he's deploying his name where it can make a difference in a dangerous area - you can't accuse him of playing for safety.

    I'd like to see polling in the seat too ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    Danny565 said:

    calum said:



    For some bizarre reason SLAB have put up a chap called Braden Davy as their candidate. He is a 22 year old Englishman, whose only experience outside off politics was working as a cleaner in McDonalds. It appears that SLAB lack good candidates as well as supporters. His facebook page is worth a look:

    What's wrong with his experience being a cleaner in McDonalds? I thought the consensus was we needed more "normal people" in politics.
    I get the impression it was more a break, resting between elections, than a proper career as a cleaner ...

This discussion has been closed.