"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
More detail:
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
According to this less than impartial source 27% of those who end up in prison are from ethnic minorities which is highly disproportionate. So, my guess is that this policy is to try and ensure that courts do consider alternatives to custody in relation to ethnic minorities.
I am not comfortable with this: to me the solution is to appoint less racist judges, but I think I can see where they are coming from.
Given that most criminals are aged 16-30, that overall figure does not seem disproportionate, in light of the older age profile of the white population.
Obviously, as Malmesbury points out, there are striking disparities between different ethnic groups.
Like others, I do not see that ethnicity or religion can be considered mitigating factors, when it comes to sentencing.
It's not, I agree. But it shouldn't be an aggravating factor either and historically, at least, it has been. Your point about the proportions of population in the most likely to offend band is a really interesting one. I have not seen any statistics that adjust for that. Lies, damned lies and statistics, huh?
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Well you could certainly benefit from a little Rory Stewart "explainer" on most topics before posting about them.
"Little Rory Stewart" is a good name for him. Ludicrous, narcissistic, diddy-sized gargoyle that he is
I just think your stuff would be better if you widened your sources beyond far right spaces. There's a lot of lies and misinformation there - and bigotry - and some of it rubs off despite your best efforts. Anyway, I see you're off fulminating against ethnic minorities again, so we can leave it there for now.
Your stuff would be better if you could, on occasion, say something interesting
But you are a retired accountant who likes golf so I am asking a lot, I get that. It's the reason I am so nice to you - a form of pity
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
"There's a lot of ruin in a nation," as Adam Smith said, is quite right.
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
More detail:
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
How is this justifiable ?
What makes being a minority and being religious a mitigating factor for any crime ?
I’d like to know the rationale for this as on the surface it seems barmy.
Of course it means anyone who commits a crime can simply claim to be religious to get a lower sentence.
But you have to be a member of a faith minority so I imagine this only applies to Muslims, Sikhs, Jews, Jedis, Pagans, and Satanists - yet not Christians, even though practising Christians ARE a minority
Or maybe it applies to everyone apart from atheists and agnostics?
The whole thing is ludicrous and shameful and comes straight from Critical Race Theory where EQUITY - equality of outcome - is the poisonous doctrine that rules all others, and therefore any perceived disadvantage for non whites MUST arise from systemic racism by whites, and can therefore only be addressed by legally disfavouring whites. As we se here
Males are MINORITY in the UK!
ONS 2022 population estimates (Scotland's Census was in 2022, instead of 2021 you see):
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
More detail:
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
How is this justifiable ?
What makes being a minority and being religious a mitigating factor for any crime ?
I’d like to know the rationale for this as on the surface it seems barmy.
Of course it means anyone who commits a crime can simply claim to be religious to get a lower sentence.
Surely this is only one of our sentencing problems. For a start, why do we send so many people to prison anyway? Does it actually reduce crime? Would we better to spend more (much more) time, money and effort on rehab?
Also why send so many people away for short sentences ?
What is the point of sending someone away for a few months which,effectively, can be halved twice.
Why jail someone for a few weeks ?
One problem is sentences have got longer and longer over the years for little obvious effect on the crime rate.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
"There's a lot of ruin in a nation," as Adam Smith said, is quite right.
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Well you could certainly benefit from a little Rory Stewart "explainer" on most topics before posting about them.
Does “centrist dad” actually mean “not a ravening conspiracy theorist fascist anti-democrat”?
It's what Blair called "Middle England".
I am not sure that is true. Middle England can be represented by prestige German car driving patriots who look and vote like a younger Jeremy Clarkson. Centrist Dads are craven commie leftovers like Lineker (and myself for that matter).
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Blamelessly watching Cricinfo when suddenly my own photo appeared on the page.
I should stress, I haven't started playing cricket - it was an advert for a tutoring agency I work for!
Do you get a fee for your modelling work?
Only if people like the Triplanes I've built.
My sons were for years on a Bridgend County glossy brochure sledging down the dunes at Merthyr Mawr, they didn't get a bean. A wealthy friend of ours had a child modelling for a Welsh Office reading programme brochure and they got thousands.
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
More detail:
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
According to this less than impartial source 27% of those who end up in prison are from ethnic minorities which is highly disproportionate. So, my guess is that this policy is to try and ensure that courts do consider alternatives to custody in relation to ethnic minorities.
I am not comfortable with this: to me the solution is to appoint less racist judges, but I think I can see where they are coming from.
Given that most criminals are aged 16-30, that overall figure does not seem disproportionate, in light of the older age profile of the white population.
Obviously, as Malmesbury points out, there are striking disparities between different ethnic groups.
Like others, I do not see that ethnicity or religion can be considered mitigating factors, when it comes to sentencing.
It's not, I agree. But it shouldn't be an aggravating factor either and historically, at least, it has been. Your point about the proportions of population in the most likely to offend band is a really interesting one. I have not seen any statistics that adjust for that. Lies, damned lies and statistics, huh?
The other difficulty is when you factor in poverty/deprivation, you sometimes find all other factors are barely significant. But because white people tend to be richer, you end up with Daily Mail headlines.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
"There's a lot of ruin in a nation," as Adam Smith said, is quite right.
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
No one votes to get poorer.
They just did.
They got poorer under Biden, because inflation rose faster than wages: that's why people voted for Trump* despite his myriad issues. They thought he would be a better steward of the economy.
* Plus, under Biden the Southern border really was a mess. Also pronouns.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
More detail:
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
How is this justifiable ?
What makes being a minority and being religious a mitigating factor for any crime ?
I’d like to know the rationale for this as on the surface it seems barmy.
Of course it means anyone who commits a crime can simply claim to be religious to get a lower sentence.
Surely this is only one of our sentencing problems. For a start, why do we send so many people to prison anyway? Does it actually reduce crime? Would we better to spend more (much more) time, money and effort on rehab?
Also why send so many people away for short sentences ?
What is the point of sending someone away for a few months which,effectively, can be halved twice.
Why jail someone for a few weeks ?
One problem is sentences have got longer and longer over the years for little obvious effect on the crime rate.
The sentences imposed have been but the actual time in jail will show a smaller effect. In Scotland certain categories of prisoner serving less than 4 years for something not involving domestic violence now only serve 40% of their sentence.
The one exception to this rule is punishment periods for the most serious crimes such as murder. These have undoubtedly been going up. Some of our prisons are looking like geriatric wings.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
"There's a lot of ruin in a nation," as Adam Smith said, is quite right.
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
Blamelessly watching Cricinfo when suddenly my own photo appeared on the page.
I should stress, I haven't started playing cricket - it was an advert for a tutoring agency I work for!
Do you get a fee for your modelling work?
Only if people like the Triplanes I've built.
My sons were for years on a Bridgend County glossy brochure sledging down the dunes at Merthyr Mawr, they didn't get a bean. A wealthy friend of ours had a child modelling for a Welsh Office reading programme brochure and they got thousands.
You are underselling yourself.
In my 40's and early 50's I was several times pictured on Liberal Party material without any advantage accruing whatsoever!
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
The West isn't collapsing: it's changing. The US and USSR teamed up against Britain and France over Suez so this situation isn't even unprecedented post-WW2.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
More detail:
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
According to this less than impartial source 27% of those who end up in prison are from ethnic minorities which is highly disproportionate. So, my guess is that this policy is to try and ensure that courts do consider alternatives to custody in relation to ethnic minorities.
I am not comfortable with this: to me the solution is to appoint less racist judges, but I think I can see where they are coming from.
Given that most criminals are aged 16-30, that overall figure does not seem disproportionate, in light of the older age profile of the white population.
Obviously, as Malmesbury points out, there are striking disparities between different ethnic groups.
Like others, I do not see that ethnicity or religion can be considered mitigating factors, when it comes to sentencing.
It's not, I agree. But it shouldn't be an aggravating factor either and historically, at least, it has been. Your point about the proportions of population in the most likely to offend band is a really interesting one. I have not seen any statistics that adjust for that. Lies, damned lies and statistics, huh?
The other difficulty is when you factor in poverty/deprivation, you sometimes find all other factors are barely significant. But because white people tend to be richer, you end up with Daily Mail headlines.
Both Chinese and Indian minorities are wealthier than white British on average. But then they will probably have lower recidivism rates too. It is, however, a mistake to assume minorities are necessarily deprived or economically disadvantaged.
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Certainly not. But this was the one and only "Fuse Energy". The cognescenti will know how exciting that was to see.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
"There's a lot of ruin in a nation," as Adam Smith said, is quite right.
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
No one votes to get poorer.
I think votes to get poorer are not unusual. Trump is an obvious one, but so was Brexit and Starmer. Sometimes voters vote to be poorer because of what else is on offer, such as Culture War or wanting a change of leadership.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Today is over course the 72nd anniversary of the death of Stalin.
Did Mr Eagles ever clarify if we can now use the word Vasiliy said he would try not to use to describe Trump, Vance and Muskovite?
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
The West isn't collapsing: it's changing. The US and USSR teamed up against Britain and France over Suez so this situation isn't even unprecedented post-WW2.
What is The West if we no longer even share fundamental values?
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
The West isn't collapsing: it's changing. The US and USSR teamed up against Britain and France over Suez so this situation isn't even unprecedented post-WW2.
What is The West if we no longer even share fundamental values?
There has always been conflict about fundamental values. It’s only a few years since abortion was legalised within part of the UK, for example.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
The West isn't collapsing: it's changing. The US and USSR teamed up against Britain and France over Suez so this situation isn't even unprecedented post-WW2.
Fair point. Both Britain and France backed down on that occasion, and British opinion was very divided. The Conservative British Government had thousands of National Servicemen to send into the Canal Zone though, so initially it wasn't too bothered.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
I don't think it's essential that politicians issue statements every time anything happens in the world. Badenoch is doing ok, and Jenrick, to a degree, demonstrating why she was the wiser choice.
Not always the most reliable of sites and too much editorial discretion exercised but yes, a very valuable asset.
I find it difficult to believe someone, somewhere won't set up something similar.
The bigger problem will be reliable polling in Trump's America, given the likely increasing (further) impediments to vote for his opponents.
Everyone is running scared of retaliations from the Trump regime. ABC can't risk 538 discussing polls showing Trump falling any more than Jeff Bezos can allow the Washington Post – the paper that exposed Watergate – to run columns critical of the Trump White House.
They are running scared, indeed. I disagree that they cannot risk upsetting Trump (although I'm sure that's what their owners and execs believe).
But truth will out, one way or another - and people will remember who told it and who said the emperor was beautifully clothed.
I think David Herdson's characteristicly good judgment may have been too kind here. I think that huge numbers of people in the media of all sorts have good reason to think that upsetting Trump is a sub-optimal move and for some even dangerous. This will have both conscious and unconscious effects.
I cannot think of a properly authoritarian state with a properly free media.
Things change fast. In December 2024, 10 weeks ago, Canada, Greenland and Denmark were exceedingly boring democracies with no enemies and our Suffolk airfields were full of the planes and forces of an unambiguously friendly power.
What happens in the next 10 weeks? No idea. But a Reichstag Fire moment sometime in the next 18 months is not out of the question.
My guess is on a US/Russia-backed coup against Zelensky or his assassination.
I rather doubt that. It's not as though Russia hasn't been making strenuous efforts for several years.
Unless Europe is about to abandon Ukraine, there's no good motivation to turn anyone who hadn't already been turned.
It would suit the US as much as the Russian for Zelenskyy to be out of the way. And the Americans have much better intelligence on his movements. After all, they were a key Ukrainian ally until a few weeks ago.
For the last 6-12 months the Ukrainians haven’t been sharing information with the Americans. They found that there were leaks to the media and/or Russians
Not always the most reliable of sites and too much editorial discretion exercised but yes, a very valuable asset.
I find it difficult to believe someone, somewhere won't set up something similar.
The bigger problem will be reliable polling in Trump's America, given the likely increasing (further) impediments to vote for his opponents.
Everyone is running scared of retaliations from the Trump regime. ABC can't risk 538 discussing polls showing Trump falling any more than Jeff Bezos can allow the Washington Post – the paper that exposed Watergate – to run columns critical of the Trump White House.
They are running scared, indeed. I disagree that they cannot risk upsetting Trump (although I'm sure that's what their owners and execs believe).
But truth will out, one way or another - and people will remember who told it and who said the emperor was beautifully clothed.
I think David Herdson's characteristicly good judgment may have been too kind here. I think that huge numbers of people in the media of all sorts have good reason to think that upsetting Trump is a sub-optimal move and for some even dangerous. This will have both conscious and unconscious effects.
I cannot think of a properly authoritarian state with a properly free media.
Things change fast. In December 2024, 10 weeks ago, Canada, Greenland and Denmark were exceedingly boring democracies with no enemies and our Suffolk airfields were full of the planes and forces of an unambiguously friendly power.
What happens in the next 10 weeks? No idea. But a Reichstag Fire moment sometime in the next 18 months is not out of the question.
My guess is on a US/Russia-backed coup against Zelensky or his assassination.
I rather doubt that. It's not as though Russia hasn't been making strenuous efforts for several years.
Unless Europe is about to abandon Ukraine, there's no good motivation to turn anyone who hadn't already been turned.
It would suit the US as much as the Russian for Zelenskyy to be out of the way. And the Americans have much better intelligence on his movements. After all, they were a key Ukrainian ally until a few weeks ago.
For the last 6-12 months the Ukrainians haven’t been sharing information with the Americans. They found that there were leaks to the media and/or Russians
Do you have a source for that? Google is currently filled with the current American stoppage.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
I don't think it's essential that politicians issue statements every time anything happens in the world. Badenoch is doing ok, and Jenrick, to a degree, demonstrating why she was the wiser choice.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Well you could certainly benefit from a little Rory Stewart "explainer" on most topics before posting about them.
"Little Rory Stewart" is a good name for him. Ludicrous, narcissistic, diddy-sized gargoyle that he is
I just think your stuff would be better if you widened your sources beyond far right spaces. There's a lot of lies and misinformation there - and bigotry - and some of it rubs off despite your best efforts. Anyway, I see you're off fulminating against ethnic minorities again, so we can leave it there for now.
Your stuff would be better if you could, on occasion, say something interesting
But you are a retired accountant who likes golf so I am asking a lot, I get that. It's the reason I am so nice to you - a form of pity
Chartered.
And I'm about to write a book as it happens.
"Conning the Clueless: The grooming of poorly educated white men by the populist right"
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Although it was started by a Mr Gregg, so I'm sure I'm right...
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Stewart and Campbell made their names serving American interests so you can see why they might feel particularly betrayed, but it does cast doubt on their ability to analyse the situation rationally.
I'd recommend listening to the conversation, and drawing your own conclusion.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Note the technical detail above is probably wrong, but the basic argument isn't.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
Santander has taken to emailing customers about betting transactions, even profitable ones.
What next? Lloyds wondering why you've not paid for an Uber to church each Sunday? NatWest warning you about spending too much on Greggs and Fuse Energy? Coutts debanking you for being Nigel Farage?
"Captain America 4: Brave New World" is falling off fast. It might crawl over $400 million worldwide, but that's a bit of a stretch. It was cheap by Marvel standards (budget $180 mill) but when you include worldwide marketing costs it's not going to make a big profit. I assume @Roger or @MarqueeMark knows more about how to calculate profit/loss than me,
"Captain America 4: Brave New World" is falling off fast. It might crawl over $400 million worldwide, but that's a bit of a stretch. It was cheap by Marvel standards (budget $180 mill) but when you include worldwide marketing costs it's not going to make a big profit. I assume @Roger or @MarqueeMark knows more about how to calculate profit/loss than me,
So Trump also disabled weapons already inside Ukraine, like HIMARS.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
The West isn't collapsing: it's changing. The US and USSR teamed up against Britain and France over Suez so this situation isn't even unprecedented post-WW2.
Suez was a useful distraction for the USSR from what they were doing to Hungary in 1956.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
Will be one of the last, I think. But you never know.
As a religous minority I welcome the new changes to sentencing! Indeed I am oiling up my crossbow for a good old murder death kill spree as we speak in the full expectation I will only get community service
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
The West isn't collapsing: it's changing. The US and USSR teamed up against Britain and France over Suez so this situation isn't even unprecedented post-WW2.
Suez was a useful distraction for the USSR from what they were doing to Hungary in 1956.
There was a certain amount of vitriol directed at Eden because of Hungary. But because of the gung-ho attitude of the right-wing Empire Loyalists in the British Press it was drowned out.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
I agree the chasm is getting wider.
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
So Trump also disabled weapons already inside Ukraine, like HIMARS.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
Santander has taken to emailing customers about betting transactions, even profitable ones.
What next? Lloyds wondering why you've not paid for an Uber to church each Sunday? NatWest warning you about spending too much on Greggs and Fuse Energy? Coutts debanking you for being Nigel Farage?
I bank with the Co-op. Fortunately they only have the only ATM locally. Not that we have much use for cash these days!
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
Personally I find your posts on politics some of the least analytical and most partisan on the board - though I appreciate I am probably not the ideal audience for them.
The above post for example - what is this if it isn't absurdly overthought ephemera? It's lovely that you feel that one of your political enemies has goofed in an interview - good stuff. But still 'analysing it' today?
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
I agree the chasm is getting wider.
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
I think you are looking at this in the wrong way. This isn't about what the USA gets, it is about what Trump and his cabal get. They don't care about the medium to long term effect on the USA. All they care about is their own self serving agenda.
So Trump also disabled weapons already inside Ukraine, like HIMARS.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
Utterly despicable. Why isn’t there more outrage in what is in effect the US being complicit in the deaths of Ukrainians .
I am speechless, and sure there is outrage but also a feeling of despair at just how impotent we and others seem to be able to counter these ongoing outrages
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
"There's a lot of ruin in a nation," as Adam Smith said, is quite right.
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
No one votes to get poorer.
I think votes to get poorer are not unusual. Trump is an obvious one, but so was Brexit and Starmer. Sometimes voters vote to be poorer because of what else is on offer, such as Culture War or wanting a change of leadership.
"There is a lot of ruin in a nation" is a quote I use a lot, and to be clear I am not forecasting the fall of the US, at least not yet. However the damage that Trump has already done will lead to material changes in the US. Apple is a closed system that is one product failure away from becoming Nokia. Alphabet´s Google is now a dead duck after Deepseek, and they wasted over $40 billion on the wrong AI. Meta has totally failed to morph into WeChat/WePay and WhatsApp is facing serious competition. Musk wasted over $30 billion and counting on TwiX and Tesla is seeing its valuation collapse as sales wilt because wrong technology and under invested even compared to China, not just because Musk is a c**t. So US Tech sector looks fundamentally pretty sick.
Meanwhile the "move fast, break things" approach is certainly going to break things and is going to smash up US fed government revenue as well as costs. Meanwhile any determined attempt to destroy the Fed will lead to a substantially increased risk premium on US currency assets in general because of the new uncertainty.
On top of all of this, the EU is finally talking seriously (and including the UK) about the kind of finance and capital market changes that can bring more capital into the local start ups and at least some catch up now seems pretty clear. So the combo is very nasty for the US, and to a degree is already happening. US assets are mispriced and a correction of some size is already underway. Where it stops, no one knows, but tariffs and capricious law making ought to lead to a derating. Is that 20% from here? Is that 40%?. Thing is, once there is a failure of confidence then there could be a real overshoot.
The US Treasuries are most liquid market in the world, but if people feel that the US reneges on their security commitments, why would (possibly former) allies hold Treasuries at a discount. Its not a AAA market risk, its a AA+, maybe even lower, so again a derating risk.
So Yes, the US just voted to get poorer. Its how much poorer that we don´t know yet.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
I dislike this podcast for a different reason to Leon's flailings.
It's engaging with Vance's attempt to flood the zone, otherwise known as trolling the UK and France. Don't waste your attention on it. Vance (who my autocorrect keeps trying to change to cancer, draw your own conclusions) has proven he is not worth listening to.
Santander has taken to emailing customers about betting transactions, even profitable ones.
What next? Lloyds wondering why you've not paid for an Uber to church each Sunday? NatWest warning you about spending too much on Greggs and Fuse Energy? Coutts debanking you for being Nigel Farage?
I bank with the Co-op. Fortunately they only have the only ATM locally. Not that we have much use for cash these days!
I use cash only for tipping the fish & chip shop staff once a week (the other days I use Deliveroo). Even charity collectors these days prefer cards to cash.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
I agree the chasm is getting wider.
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
I think you are looking at this in the wrong way. This isn't about what the USA gets, it is about what Trump and his cabal get. They don't care about the medium to long term effect on the USA. All they care about is their own self serving agenda.
Yes. Nothing that Trump is doing actually helps the USA.
It’s all about a bunch of psychopathic man-children, who are in charge of the USA, working off their grudges, and sating their appetites.
I believe.
The other possibility is that they are in Russia’s pocket.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Note the technical detail above is probably wrong, but the basic argument isn't.
Your basic argument is wrong Nige. The pressure put on is not to get Minerals deal, as materially there is no assurance from old surveys the minerals are there, what you are sure is there costs lot of energy in mining and processing taken from profit margin, and lead times to any sort of profit is decades, whilst the political context is the Minerals deal did not come from MAGA brain cells, but from Z’s Government who wrote it ages ago to Biden Admin, who didn’t fall for what the offer was trying to do.
This hideous pressure - an appalling legacy for USA in the history books being done in the name of every single American citizen - is designed to remove Zelenskyy. That’s the aim of it.
Even once signed, the Mineral Deal will fall apart on basis US companies won’t sign up. Yet the pressure to remove Z will continue apace.
So Trump also disabled weapons already inside Ukraine, like HIMARS.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
Utterly despicable. Why isn’t there more outrage in what is in effect the US being complicit in the deaths of Ukrainians .
I am speechless, and sure there is outrage but also a feeling of despair at just how impotent we and others seem to be able to counter these ongoing outrages
Starmer and Macron and Merz need a call to Trump.
"Reinstate the intelligence - and the weapons deiveries - or we use all the Russian money currently frozen to go and buy weapons for Ukraine.
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Although it was started by a Mr Gregg, so I'm sure I'm right...
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
I'm with you Omnium. I was deliberating over this very question in a text to a daughter fifteen minutes ago and reached the conclusions you did, for the same reason.
So Trump also disabled weapons already inside Ukraine, like HIMARS.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
Jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
It really is deeply shocking.
Authorities must *explain* why they want to put an ethnic minority person in gaol.
It's not shocking, it's a social media dog whistle.
It's a guy Sam Bidwell from the Adam Smith Institute quoting a tweet from Jenrick, which includes himself making a point in the Commons.
Both the tweet and the video clip of Bobby G, including the allegation of "two tier justice" are full of quite a lot of garbage afaics - such as Jenrick featuring himself asking his finger-jabby question with a very questionable allegation about Sentencing Guidelines, and not featuring the verbal answer given by the Minister.
The research quoted in the consultation on the proposal does not afaics support the claim.
Sam Bidwell's tweet compares Muslim defendants to a case of a woman posting on facebook and calls the sentences "similar".
He quotes the Muslim defendants as receiving 32 months each, and says "Julie Sweeney, 53, from Cheshire, received a similar sentence last year for an inflammatory Facebook post. "
Her crime was not "posting on Facebook"; she published a call for a Mosque to be burnt down with the people inside it, in the midst of a period of street rioting.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.
However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.
What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
The Loser loses a big court case: "A sharply divided Supreme Court on Wednesday denied the Trump administration’s request to block a lower court order on foreign aid funding, clearing the way for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development to restart nearly $2 billion in payments." source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/05/supreme-court-usaid-spending-freeze/
I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in constitutional law, so I won't comment on the legal issues. But I can say I am happy this aid is flowing, both for the people it helps, and the ways it makes America stronger. (For example, we are better off if we can stop new diseases in Africa and Asia, which is where most of them originate, before they ever reach us.)
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
I agree the chasm is getting wider.
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
I think you are looking at this in the wrong way. This isn't about what the USA gets, it is about what Trump and his cabal get. They don't care about the medium to long term effect on the USA. All they care about is their own self serving agenda.
Yes. Nothing that Trump is doing actually helps the USA.
It’s all about a bunch of psychopathic man-children, who are in charge of the USA, working off their grudges, and sating their appetites.
I believe.
The other possibility is that they are in Russia’s pocket.
As TSE said the other day, if Trump WAS a Russian asset, what would he have done differently?
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
I agree the chasm is getting wider.
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
I think you are looking at this in the wrong way. This isn't about what the USA gets, it is about what Trump and his cabal get. They don't care about the medium to long term effect on the USA. All they care about is their own self serving agenda.
That's how it usually is with autocrats and dictators. Trump's interests are no more aligned to America's than Putin's are to Russia's. They're both about satisfying their 'urges' not making life better for their respective populations.
So Trump also disabled weapons already inside Ukraine, like HIMARS.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Although it was started by a Mr Gregg, so I'm sure I'm right...
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
I'm with you Omnium. I was deliberating over this very question in a text to a daughter fifteen minutes ago and reached the conclusions you did, for the same reason.
Do send your account details as agreed
Oddly when I first wrote the post I had the apostrophe after the s and then moved it. I moved it precisely because it was Mr Gregg's shop, but I do now see that really I was wrong to do so.
I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.
No objections were minuted.
This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.
It is being presented as a win for Jenrick and fair play to him, that is his job. However, as he knows, the Justice Secretary had already ruled it out in their Commons exchange this afternoon. Shorn of most of their exchange, we are left with:-
Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.
However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.
What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
All that their hard balling is doing is getting people killed to work off their grudges and satisfy their greed.
Not always the most reliable of sites and too much editorial discretion exercised but yes, a very valuable asset.
I find it difficult to believe someone, somewhere won't set up something similar.
The bigger problem will be reliable polling in Trump's America, given the likely increasing (further) impediments to vote for his opponents.
Everyone is running scared of retaliations from the Trump regime. ABC can't risk 538 discussing polls showing Trump falling any more than Jeff Bezos can allow the Washington Post – the paper that exposed Watergate – to run columns critical of the Trump White House.
They are running scared, indeed. I disagree that they cannot risk upsetting Trump (although I'm sure that's what their owners and execs believe).
But truth will out, one way or another - and people will remember who told it and who said the emperor was beautifully clothed.
I think David Herdson's characteristicly good judgment may have been too kind here. I think that huge numbers of people in the media of all sorts have good reason to think that upsetting Trump is a sub-optimal move and for some even dangerous. This will have both conscious and unconscious effects.
I cannot think of a properly authoritarian state with a properly free media.
Things change fast. In December 2024, 10 weeks ago, Canada, Greenland and Denmark were exceedingly boring democracies with no enemies and our Suffolk airfields were full of the planes and forces of an unambiguously friendly power.
What happens in the next 10 weeks? No idea. But a Reichstag Fire moment sometime in the next 18 months is not out of the question.
My guess is on a US/Russia-backed coup against Zelensky or his assassination.
I rather doubt that. It's not as though Russia hasn't been making strenuous efforts for several years.
Unless Europe is about to abandon Ukraine, there's no good motivation to turn anyone who hadn't already been turned.
It would suit the US as much as the Russian for Zelenskyy to be out of the way. And the Americans have much better intelligence on his movements. After all, they were a key Ukrainian ally until a few weeks ago.
For the last 6-12 months the Ukrainians haven’t been sharing information with the Americans. They found that there were leaks to the media and/or Russians
Do you have a source for that? Google is currently filled with the current American stoppage.
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Although it was started by a Mr Gregg, so I'm sure I'm right...
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
I'm with you Omnium. I was deliberating over this very question in a text to a daughter fifteen minutes ago and reached the conclusions you did, for the same reason.
Do send your account details as agreed
Oddly when I first wrote the post I had the apostrophe after the s and then moved it. I moved it precisely because it was Mr Gregg's shop, but I do now see that really I was wrong to do so.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Your Trump projection is a bit of a giveaway though. The only enemies inside our democracy are those that express such contempt for our democracy,
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
Ironically this kind of wishcasting about America collapsing in a similar way to Russia in the 1990s is a staple of Kremlin propaganda.
America isn't collapsing: it's changing. The West is collapsing. Starmer is trying to build a bridge across a chasm that is getting wider.
I agree the chasm is getting wider.
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
I think you are looking at this in the wrong way. This isn't about what the USA gets, it is about what Trump and his cabal get. They don't care about the medium to long term effect on the USA. All they care about is their own self serving agenda.
Yes. Nothing that Trump is doing actually helps the USA.
It’s all about a bunch of psychopathic man-children, who are in charge of the USA, working off their grudges, and sating their appetites.
I believe.
The other possibility is that they are in Russia’s pocket.
As TSE said the other day, if Trump WAS a Russian asset, what would he have done differently?
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.
However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.
What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
I wonder if Trump will give the mineral rights to some of his Russian oligarch mates, or at least companies owned by said mates. It would be right up their street.
When it all goes to pot I do wonder how long it will be before he is seizing 'foreign assets' in the US. Does everyone think their S&P portfolio is safe?
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Today is over course the 72nd anniversary of the death of Stalin.
Did Mr Eagles ever clarify if we can now use the word Vasiliy said he would try not to use to describe Trump, Vance and Muskovite?
Put Vasiliy on all the door nobs, so the buggers can’t get in?
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Although it was started by a Mr Gregg, so I'm sure I'm right...
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
I'm with you Omnium. I was deliberating over this very question in a text to a daughter fifteen minutes ago and reached the conclusions you did, for the same reason.
Do send your account details as agreed
Oddly when I first wrote the post I had the apostrophe after the s and then moved it. I moved it precisely because it was Mr Gregg's shop, but I do now see that really I was wrong to do so.
Greggs were wrong. We were not ;-)
The thing I think is to deploy nets against these nasty @viewcode midges.
To be know as the Grand viewcodes' midges' ne'ts program'me
Re TRIP, before I forget, whilst mooching around Highgate today (athletic gait rather than creative) I wandered into one of those discreet alleyways/courtyards that N6 specialises in and I stumbled across the offices of "Fuse Energy". There it was, right there in front of my eyes, I could actually see the people working through the windows. Genuine thrill.
Do you take photos of Gregg's branches?
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
Greggs branches. Or Greggs' branches. But not Gregg's branches. The company is "Greggs" not "Gregg". https://www.greggs.com/
Although it was started by a Mr Gregg, so I'm sure I'm right...
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
I'm with you Omnium. I was deliberating over this very question in a text to a daughter fifteen minutes ago and reached the conclusions you did, for the same reason.
Do send your account details as agreed
Oddly when I first wrote the post I had the apostrophe after the s and then moved it. I moved it precisely because it was Mr Gregg's shop, but I do now see that really I was wrong to do so.
Greggs were wrong. We were not ;-)
Over eighty years ago, John Gregg started out with one goal, to deliver (by pushbike) fresh eggs and yeast to the families of Newcastle. Greggs on legs, if you will… Ten years later, he chained up his bike and opened Greggs of Gosforth. https://www.greggs.com/about
As can be seen in the photo, there never was an apostrophe.
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
I guess Russia isn't going to be in a hurry, then.
The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday. https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1897294656314253351
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.
However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.
What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
All that their hard balling is doing is getting people killed to work off their grudges and satisfy their greed.
You may think that that is the overriding concern, but the broad points I've outlined are a real outcome, whether Trump, Vance and Zelensky intend it, or not.
The political realities within Ukraine are nicely summarised by Svitlana Morenetz in this Speccie podcast (which is a week or so old, but interesting nonetheless):
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
You've said that to at least a dozen people. Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
I guess Russia isn't going to be in a hurry, then.
The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday. https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1897294656314253351
Well Russia is truly fucked if Europe actually sticks its weight behind Ukraine. It won't of course happen, but if it did that'd give Putin 18 months.
US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision. https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Trump is going to bully the rest of the world into giving the US favourable deals on this, that and the other, picking us off one at a time.
The only way to stand up for this is for the non-US world to stand together.
I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.
No objections were minuted.
This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.
Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win
Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
I guess Russia isn't going to be in a hurry, then.
The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday. https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1897294656314253351
Giving them more time to take more territory and kill Ukrainians. The US isn’t even bothering to try and look like it gives a fig about Ukraine. Soon they’ll be shipping weapons to Putin .
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
You've said that to at least a dozen people. Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
Lol. I go where the analysis leads.
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
Says the person who didn't understand secondary school maths the other day..
Comments
But you are a retired accountant who likes golf so I am asking a lot, I get that. It's the reason I am so nice to you - a form of pity
The US has some of the world's best educated people, many of the world's best firms and brands, is rich in natural resources, and has relatively healthy demographics.
So, I don't think the US in on the verge of an economic collapse, or anything like that. However, if tariffs result in inflation whittling away at consumers' purchasing power in the US, then I think President Trump could well find himself very unpopular, very quickly.
No one votes to get poorer.
ONS 2022 population estimates (Scotland's Census was in 2022, instead of 2021 you see):
Males 33,104,780
Females 34,491,501
Miller marmalises the bowling, which is obviously just what Santner needs immediately before facing india.
You are underselling yourself.
Edit: And thus I mean 'why?'
* Plus, under Biden the Southern border really was a mess. Also pronouns.
The one exception to this rule is punishment periods for the most serious crimes such as murder. These have undoubtedly been going up. Some of our prisons are looking like geriatric wings.
Just not wittingly.
So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276
Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.
Did Mr Eagles ever clarify if we can now use the word Vasiliy said he would try not to use to describe Trump, Vance and Muskovite?
And I'm about to write a book as it happens.
"Conning the Clueless: The grooming of poorly educated white men by the populist right"
That's the hard bit done already.
Authorities must *explain* why they want to put an ethnic minority person in gaol.
(aka I accept the criticism entirely, but wanted to find a slight mitigating factor)
The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.
Will you be?
https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/major-concerns-raised-over-high-street-bank-santanders-alerts-to-punters-for-high-gambling-activity-acQmC0N3x5Q3/
Santander has taken to emailing customers about betting transactions, even profitable ones.
What next? Lloyds wondering why you've not paid for an Uber to church each Sunday? NatWest warning you about spending too much on Greggs and Fuse Energy? Coutts debanking you for being Nigel Farage?
A bit like the oil industry, where each succesful exploration oil well has to carry maybe 6 or 7 failures, a success has to carry the duds.
America cut crucial link for intel alerts at 2pm Kyiv. Before that: targeting data for HIMARS stopped working. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes. “Trump wanted a thank you,” says a source. “We will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians”
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1897338573097169227
There's always been a disconnect, though. The US is more religious society than Europe, and it has a legacy of slavery that Europe lacks.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see what -in the abstract- the US gets from abandoning Europe, and cosying up to Russia.
Russia is a middle income country, with terrible demographics, that is dependent on the sale of fossil fuels at a time when fossil fuels share of the energy mix is only going in one direction.
It's never going to be a big market for American exports. It's *possible* that American mining companies get contracts in Russia... But it's hard to see how that could make more than chump change for the US.
By contrast, trashing the US brand name in Europe has the potential to do long-term damage to American exports.
The above post for example - what is this if it isn't absurdly overthought ephemera? It's lovely that you feel that one of your political enemies has goofed in an interview - good stuff. But still 'analysing it' today?
https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132
The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.
Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.
I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169
The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.
I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.
No objections were minuted.
This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.
Meanwhile the "move fast, break things" approach is certainly going to break things and is going to smash up US fed government revenue as well as costs. Meanwhile any determined attempt to destroy the Fed will lead to a substantially increased risk premium on US currency assets in general because of the new uncertainty.
On top of all of this, the EU is finally talking seriously (and including the UK) about the kind of finance and capital market changes that can bring more capital into the local start ups and at least some catch up now seems pretty clear. So the combo is very nasty for the US, and to a degree is already happening. US assets are mispriced and a correction of some size is already underway. Where it stops, no one knows, but tariffs and capricious law making ought to lead to a derating. Is that 20% from here? Is that 40%?. Thing is, once there is a failure of confidence then there could be a real overshoot.
The US Treasuries are most liquid market in the world, but if people feel that the US reneges on their security commitments, why would (possibly former) allies hold Treasuries at a discount. Its not a AAA market risk, its a AA+, maybe even lower, so again a derating risk.
So Yes, the US just voted to get poorer. Its how much poorer that we don´t know yet.
It's engaging with Vance's attempt to flood the zone, otherwise known as trolling the UK and France. Don't waste your attention on it. Vance (who my autocorrect keeps trying to change to cancer, draw your own conclusions) has proven he is not worth listening to.
It’s all about a bunch of psychopathic man-children, who are in charge of the USA, working off their grudges, and sating their appetites.
I believe.
The other possibility is that they are in Russia’s pocket.
This hideous pressure - an appalling legacy for USA in the history books being done in the name of every single American citizen - is designed to remove Zelenskyy. That’s the aim of it.
Even once signed, the Mineral Deal will fall apart on basis US companies won’t sign up. Yet the pressure to remove Z will continue apace.
"Reinstate the intelligence - and the weapons deiveries - or we use all the Russian money currently frozen to go and buy weapons for Ukraine.
From China."
It's a guy Sam Bidwell from the Adam Smith Institute quoting a tweet from Jenrick, which includes himself making a point in the Commons.
Both the tweet and the video clip of Bobby G, including the allegation of "two tier justice" are full of quite a lot of garbage afaics - such as Jenrick featuring himself asking his finger-jabby question with a very questionable allegation about Sentencing Guidelines, and not featuring the verbal answer given by the Minister.
The research quoted in the consultation on the proposal does not afaics support the claim.
Sam Bidwell's tweet compares Muslim defendants to a case of a woman posting on facebook and calls the sentences "similar".
He quotes the Muslim defendants as receiving 32 months each, and says "Julie Sweeney, 53, from Cheshire, received a similar sentence last year for an inflammatory Facebook post. "
Her crime was not "posting on Facebook"; she published a call for a Mosque to be burnt down with the people inside it, in the midst of a period of street rioting.
Actually her sentence was 15 months, so she would be out in 7 or 8 months. That's hardly "similar".
https://www.cheshire.police.uk/news/cheshire/news/articles/2024/8/woman-jailed-for-hate-related-communications/
Leon is an intelligent man; I don't know why he snuffles up this horse shit.
However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.
What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
"A sharply divided Supreme Court on Wednesday denied the Trump administration’s request to block a lower court order on foreign aid funding, clearing the way for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development to restart nearly $2 billion in payments."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/05/supreme-court-usaid-spending-freeze/
I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in constitutional law, so I won't comment on the legal issues. But I can say I am happy this aid is flowing, both for the people it helps, and the ways it makes America stronger. (For example, we are better off if we can stop new diseases in Africa and Asia, which is where most of them originate, before they ever reach us.)
Oddly when I first wrote the post I had the apostrophe after the s and then moved it. I moved it precisely because it was Mr Gregg's shop, but I do now see that really I was wrong to do so.
Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?
Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
When it all goes to pot I do wonder how long it will be before he is seizing 'foreign assets' in the US. Does everyone think their S&P portfolio is safe?
To be know as the Grand viewcodes' midges' ne'ts program'me
Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
Ten years later, he chained up his bike and opened Greggs of Gosforth.
https://www.greggs.com/about
As can be seen in the photo, there never was an apostrophe.
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1897340639668498566
You call people names and run away
Let the reader decide.
The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday.
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1897294656314253351
The political realities within Ukraine are nicely summarised by Svitlana Morenetz in this Speccie podcast (which is a week or so old, but interesting nonetheless):
https://youtu.be/qMgHGxouv84?si=b60aTEYD0dsm3vbZ
Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
The only way to stand up for this is for the non-US world to stand together.
And ?