More bad news out of America – politicalbetting.com
More bad news out of America – politicalbetting.com
For gamblers 538 was an essential website as it allowed you deal with the plethora of polls that are published in America and see the trends and the historical trends.
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I find it difficult to believe someone, somewhere won't set up something similar.
The bigger problem will be reliable polling in Trump's America, given the likely increasing (further) impediments to vote for his opponents.
That's a lot of paid Democrat activists, JD....
Be worried, wifey...
But truth will out, one way or another - and people will remember who told it and who said the emperor was beautifully clothed.
‘Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’
- Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947.
And what a shocker - MAGA think that dissenters in Congress should be legally sanctioned. How do you ensure that you have a majority in the rump parliament? Remove the people who disagree with you!
Then you can abolish it. With Trump already ruling by decree there is little purpose left in having it.
It doesn't look like the Constitution survives Trump 2. He owns Scotus and Congress already so Government by Executive Order it is.
Trump has already excluded some mainstream news organisations from White House press briefings, and taken direct control of the White House press pool, as Putin did in Moscow. Press conferences are increasingly dominated by questions from once-fringe MAGA supporting outlets, in a move presaged by Little Britain (40 seconds video):-
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/d9CQRinbxLo
Unless you are the sort willing to bet on Kim Jong-un's favourability rating.
I suspect Trump's model of Government is Sicily in the 1970s.
Nate Silver started The Silver Bulletin after he left 538.
And it has the same election model, but not currently the same visible polling database. That said, given he has to collect the polling data for the model, I presume it's only a small amount of work for him to add them to the site.
The big one, for Bezos, is AWS and it’s usage by the Federal Government.
I cannot think of a properly authoritarian state with a properly free media.
Things change fast. In December 2024, 10 weeks ago, Canada, Greenland and Denmark were exceedingly boring democracies with no enemies and our Suffolk airfields were full of the planes and forces of an unambiguously friendly power.
What happens in the next 10 weeks? No idea. But a Reichstag Fire moment sometime in the next 18 months is not out of the question.
https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725
Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.
Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.
They say events shape politics but if we cast our minds back to 2019 and Johnson's win we have since had Brexit, covid, war in Ukraine and now Trump
These events have huge implications for politics, economics, and even the peace and personally I am struggling with so much that apart from Reform, who I have absolutely no time for, I believe we should strive for more concensus going forward and seek to support our leaders and our country
Starmer has done well and should gain in the polls, but it remains to be seen just how this all effects Farage and Reform
I expect a Labour poll bounce and certainly an improvement in Starmer's ratings, but as has been said the next election is 4 years away and goodness knows where we will be by then
Maybe we just need to wish Starmer, Macron and other leaders well as they struggle with a dangerous narcissistic Trump who is attempting to change the world order to a frightening degree and with unknown consequences
What a time to be alive (care off my pacemaker. !!!! )
I suspect that the Triple Lock will go!
It's not as though Russia hasn't been making strenuous efforts for several years.
Unless Europe is about to abandon Ukraine, there's no good motivation to turn anyone who hadn't already been turned.
On that score, we had better resist, as and when this comes.
Wait for it, Trump will be twisting Europe’s arms to abandon Ukraine as well entirely...
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1897275086442504310
New Zealand on course to win the Champions Trophy semi final so a nice bet landed at Evens.
My 22/1 play on Williamson and van der Dussen to be the respective top scorers fails because although Williamson scored 102, Ravendra scored 108.
I hope that's the end of my misfortune with Cheltenham next week....
...I have always been clear that we need to ensure that the US, the UK, Europe and Ukraine, are working together, but we must not choose between the US and Europe.
We never have historically, and we’re not going to do so now...
Beautiful beautiful day - actually feels fairly warm in the shade and not just behind a window facing the sun.
They only beat England and Afghanistan - the match against Australia was rained off without a ball bowled. The Afghans looked to be on the wrong end of it against Australia when the rain came.
New Zealand did really well in defeat against India and with the final in Dubai on a pitch which will suit the Indian spinners, they face a big ask.
But I wouldn't be surprised if that was attempted.
And which is why I believe that European support for Ukraine is so essential. The Ukrainians have to feel that there's a path to victory, even if the US is not involved.
Plus, the more support we give to Ukraine, and the more likely they are to win, the harder it is for Trump to back Russia. Because above all, he doesn't want to be a loser. To withdraw support, to lose the minerals deal, and then for Russia to fail... Well, he would be shown to be on the losing side.
These are not incompatible. Murica thinks Europe should defend itself more, so Europe stepping up should be welcomed by MAGA. But it won't be as Europe will be planning to spend money on its own defence industries.
MAGA thinks it can cut Europe off and dismember NATO - which will scare Europe into buying more weapons from America. That is not going to happen.
"New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.
Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..
This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."
Details in the tweet
https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1897299597610938846
Jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless
There is a conflict in style between Putin's gas-lighting with his assassinations and, I'd presume, the US not wanting to be implicated in any way.
But not with the CIA telling Moscow where he is...
A Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) means that probation has assessed an offender and done their best to consider options for that person to serve a sentence in the community (ie not in prison). It gives a judge options beyond jail. Often, there will be an argument between the prosecution and defence lawyers over whether a pre-sentence report should be ordered. The defence lawyers will know that a PSR will more likely lead to a non-custodial sentence. If a PSR is not ordered by a judge, a custodial sentence will follow in many cases. The judge is basically saying there is no option beyond custody so there is no need for probation to assess options for a community sentence. If, therefore, you are more likely to get a PSR if you are a member of a minority community, it means you have a better shot at a non-custodial sentence for any particular offence than somebody who is not a member of that community. The same goes for if you are female, and the following extract states explicitly that custody for women of minority cultural or religious beliefs may be ‘particularly acute’ meaning that it should be avoided in more cases than for women who do not belong to those minorities.
Just ask him, or any of his devoted followers.
What a repulsive farce. We need a British Trump and I don't give a fuck if he imposes 9000% tariffs on Finland
To game it the other way, suppose a liberal / neutral outlet decides that its best bet is to transform into USPravda. Where does that take it? It loses much of its existing custom, gains very little new (as MAGA stays tuned to Fox and the like), and trashes its credibility. It might survive as a shell but it's never coming back to what it was: short-term survival and medium-term failure. So even at the risk of short-term failure, the better option for those firms is still to do the right thing and prepare for the hit.
Blamelessly watching Cricinfo when suddenly my own photo appeared on the page.
I should stress, I haven't started playing cricket - it was an advert for a tutoring agency I work for!
No, of course it is not
Yet this will make it a part of the legal system that white people - especially men - by definition will get a harder time and are more likely to go to prison. It enshrines racism in law
https://www.sentencingacademy.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Ethnicity-and-Custodial-Sentencing-1.pdf
However, to you that unfairness appears to be a feature not a bug. Or likely you’ll dismiss it altogether.
The reason that these PSRs are asked for is expressly to address the fact that black males, especially, are sentenced to prison more than their white counterparts. The disingenuous nonsense you copy paste misstates the purpose of PSRs - they are certainly not an attempt by the probation service to consider options other than prison. That’s for the judge. They’re essentially a background report. They are a small attempt to fix a problem.
How will the courts determine this ethnicity? Perhaps they can use a pencil test to check the frizziness of the hair
However, given that the official state position is that race "is a social construct" and has no biological reality whatsoever, I guess we can all claim we are Romanian Zulus, and get no jail time at all
Lots of questions are being asked about *why* there is such a discrepancy.
'Tsk! Sich behaviour on the Lord's day,' she said disdainfully, and turning to her grandchildren said, 'A righteous man regardeth the life of his beast: but the tender mercies of the wicked are cruel, Proverbs 12: 10.'
Soon after galloping hooves are heard, and the minister of the kirk overtakes them. He's lashing his beast furiously and the poor horse is in a lather, nearly spent, as it tries to keep up with the demands of the rider.
'Ah,' she breathes, 'see how that noble man desires to worship Our Lord!' And turning to her grandchildren she says, 'Let us go speedily to pray before the LORD, and to seek the LORD of hosts: I will go also, Zechariah, 8:21.'
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
What makes being a minority and being religious a mitigating factor for any crime ?
I’d like to know the rationale for this as on the surface it seems barmy.
Of course it means anyone who commits a crime can simply claim to be religious to get a lower sentence.
"Captain America 4: Brave New World" is falling off fast. It might crawl over $400 million worldwide, but that's a bit of a stretch. It was cheap by Marvel standards (budget $180 mill) but when you include worldwide marketing costs it's not going to make a big profit. I assume @Roger or @MarqueeMark knows more about how to calculate profit/loss than me,
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Captain-America-The-First-Avenger/Captain-America-The-Winter-Soldier#tab=day_by_day_comparison
https://prisonreformtrust.org.uk/project/race/#:~:text=There is a clear direct association between ethnicity,be sent to prison at the Crown Court.
According to this less than impartial source 27% of those who end up in prison are from ethnic minorities which is highly disproportionate. So, my guess is that this policy is to try and ensure that courts do consider alternatives to custody in relation to ethnic minorities.
I am not comfortable with this: to me the solution is to appoint less racist judges, but I think I can see where they are coming from.
However I think we are already seeing the first breath of a storm that within the year could see the US bond and equity markets come crashing down, and quite possibly the USD as a reserve currency with it.
The level of failure will be so extraordinary that the US may well be unrecognisable, and the name Trump will be down with Quisling, Mussolini or Goebbels in the annals of crime.
So choose wisely: after this anyone who expressed approval for Trump in the way that you have done will either have to account for that mistake or be derided and shunned.
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-and-the-law/policing/number-of-arrests/latest/
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/ethnicity-and-the-criminal-justice-system-statistics-2020/ethnicity-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2020
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a75928440f0b6360e475224/bame-disproportionality-in-the-cjs.pdf
I advocate a form of democracy which is a perfect mixture of PR and FPTP. The entire electorate votes on every single government decision.
What is the point of sending someone away for a few months which,effectively, can be halved twice.
Why jail someone for a few weeks ?
Or maybe it applies to everyone apart from atheists and agnostics?
The whole thing is ludicrous and shameful and comes straight from Critical Race Theory where EQUITY - equality of outcome - is the poisonous doctrine that rules all others, and therefore any perceived disadvantage for non whites MUST arise from systemic racism by whites, and can therefore only be addressed by legally disfavouring whites. As we se here
Obviously, as Malmesbury points out, there are striking disparities between different ethnic groups.
Like others, I do not see that ethnicity or religion can be considered mitigating factors, when it comes to sentencing.