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Punters largely unmoved by J.D. Vance’s recent [redacted adjective] behaviour – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,657
    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    That Glen track is really rather good. I had no idea he had done that one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    I am bored of this film now
    it's going to be a long long 4 years. And beyond, one way or another.

    And that's assuming we don't enter into a new world of war and recession.
    I think a recession is inevitable - although we might get spared the worst of it by lots of military investment. As to war, it looks to me to be toss up between a war between Europe (including us) and Russia or a Civil War in the US. Maybe both.
    Time for everyone to go hide out on an oil rig or something.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,657
    eek said:

    pm215 said:

    FF43 said:

    I still don't really get the Canada tariff thing. I totally get Mexico, Chayna, and even the EU to an extent. I am actually open to there being an end game - there has often been method in the madness previously. I'm also open to it being pure caprice, but I usually think Trump is after 'a deal' of some sort.

    Trump sees tariffs as a source of revenue, which also boosts domestic industry. Win/win. Which contradicts a further supposed third aim of tariffs as leverage. In the first two cases you want to keep them permanently and therefore have no leverage.
    Yes, I think Trump is a genuine mercantilist -- he's happy to use tariffs as leverage in deals, but he also thinks they're good for the US in themselves, so he's happy to go ahead and impose them. (And I suspect a lot of ordinary Americans who aren't particularly interested in the finer points of modern economic consensus would agree with him. Mercantilism makes a kind of intuitive sense, which I think is why it was standard behaviour for many countries for so long.)
    Hey if you thought inflation was bad when Biden was in power - look how much (higher) I've improved it...
    He'll obviously close the agencies that provide inflation data soon.

    But voters will of course still be able to read the price increases on the shop stickers.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,146
    Another of those random thoughts.

    Can the King really receive Trump if he is involved in a massive attempt to break one of the King's dominions, and presumably nick it off him?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,146

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,186
    Ratters said:

    I still don't really get the Canada tariff thing. I totally get Mexico, Chayna, and even the EU to an extent. I am actually open to there being an end game - there has often been method in the madness previously. I'm also open to it being pure caprice, but I usually think Trump is after 'a deal' of some sort.

    His end game is Canada being the 51st state. And will apply economic pressure in the hope they submit.

    He tells us this frequently. Believe him.
    Sure. But I don't buy that. If anything, his insistence on using the terminology of the 51st State makes that far less likely to happen.

    I do think he's obsessed with all trade deficits and hates that the USA has one with Canada. Perhaps the mockery has a personal aspect on top of that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,146
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    I am bored of this film now
    it's going to be a long long 4 years. And beyond, one way or another.

    And that's assuming we don't enter into a new world of war and recession.
    I think a recession is inevitable - although we might get spared the worst of it by lots of military investment. As to war, it looks to me to be toss up between a war between Europe (including us) and Russia or a Civil War in the US. Maybe both.
    Time for everyone to go hide out on an oil rig or something.
    I don't think we are predicted to last very long in the event of hostilities.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    On the plus side Netflix have released the latest in their $100 million deal with Harry and Meghan to deliver solid gold rating winners.

    With Love……Meghan

    Something to cheer you up in a troubled world

    Whilst I did watch the previous stuff out of car crash curiousity this new one sounds dull as dishwater, still got the rest of future president Jimmy Donaldson's gameshow to get through
    Someone described it as perfect filler material for Saturday Kitchen.

    I do wonder if Netflix will ever get a return on their investment ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    What Trump does have in his favour of whatever the final settlement, he will proclaim it a great win, and his supporters will therefore proclaim it a great win and another success for Trump.

    So it doesnt really matter to Trump if we have two months of turbulence followed simply by an attempt to return to the status quo (in practice we can't as trust has evaporated which will take decades to rebuild). It will still be a GREAT SUCCESS that justified the short term pain.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243

    Another of those random thoughts.

    Can the King really receive Trump if he is involved in a massive attempt to break one of the King's dominions, and presumably nick it off him?

    The first state visit didn't happen until the summer of 2019.

    My working assumption is that Charles has a very busy schedule for the next 3.5 years. Unfortunately he is then unwell for a short period around the planned trip and no new date can be found...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,146
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    You send a token force to Canada and prioritise the Baltics. Trump will have enough trouble with his own states seceding in that circumstance.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    Ferry's cover of "It Ain't Me, Babe" is wonderful.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,186
    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    We seem to have quite widely different music tastes. I've never been a fan of that song.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
    I saw him about ten years ago at (whisper it) Colston Hall. Brilliant!

    Arc of a Diver remains a hard to beat album. Not keen on ELO mind.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    What Trump does have in his favour of whatever the final settlement, he will proclaim it a great win, and his supporters will therefore proclaim it a great win and another success for Trump.

    So it doesnt really matter to Trump if we have two months of turbulence followed simply by an attempt to return to the status quo (in practice we can't as trust has evaporated which will take decades to rebuild). It will still be a GREAT SUCCESS that justified the short term pain.
    Some people are about to make a huge amount of money trading the volatility.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,821
    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    One thing in Canadas favour . The government will step into help businesses effected . Will the US government step in to help businesses there ? Doubtful as that would imply tariffs are hurting and seeing as Trump started the trade war it might be a bit difficult to explain .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Taz said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    What Trump does have in his favour of whatever the final settlement, he will proclaim it a great win, and his supporters will therefore proclaim it a great win and another success for Trump.

    So it doesnt really matter to Trump if we have two months of turbulence followed simply by an attempt to return to the status quo (in practice we can't as trust has evaporated which will take decades to rebuild). It will still be a GREAT SUCCESS that justified the short term pain.
    Some people are about to make a huge amount of money trading the volatility.
    Yesterday I suggested on here it was time to start placing some puts on the market before it started tanking. Did I get round to doing anything about it.........of course not.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Does it come with the proverbial army revolver?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,821

    Taz said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    What Trump does have in his favour of whatever the final settlement, he will proclaim it a great win, and his supporters will therefore proclaim it a great win and another success for Trump.

    So it doesnt really matter to Trump if we have two months of turbulence followed simply by an attempt to return to the status quo (in practice we can't as trust has evaporated which will take decades to rebuild). It will still be a GREAT SUCCESS that justified the short term pain.
    Some people are about to make a huge amount of money trading the volatility.
    Yesterday I suggested on here it was time to start placing some puts on the market before it started tanking. Did I get round to doing anything about it.........of course not.
    I was thinking of trying to make some quick money out of defence shares . It seemed so obvious , I faffed around and didn’t get round to it and then saw them rise sharply .
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
    I’ve seen ELO twice. Fantastic both times. Richard Tandy was not playing the second time.

    Great back catalogue and I liked the Album Discovery, when it came out.

    Steve Winwood, phenomenal talent.

    As for the best cover, maybe not the best but I love Dave Clark Five’s version of Everybody Get Together.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Dust of the Foreign Office’s plans for the Yalta Conference and hope the other two are mad enough not to realise we weren’t on their side this time.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    You send a token force to Canada and prioritise the Baltics. Trump will have enough trouble with his own states seceding in that circumstance.
    Agree.

    Russia can be brought to a standstill, as we have seen, by military means.

    America, there is more recourse to political means. Hell, the Republicans might even impeach him!!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    What Trump does have in his favour of whatever the final settlement, he will proclaim it a great win, and his supporters will therefore proclaim it a great win and another success for Trump.

    So it doesnt really matter to Trump if we have two months of turbulence followed simply by an attempt to return to the status quo (in practice we can't as trust has evaporated which will take decades to rebuild). It will still be a GREAT SUCCESS that justified the short term pain.
    Some people are about to make a huge amount of money trading the volatility.
    Yesterday I suggested on here it was time to start placing some puts on the market before it started tanking. Did I get round to doing anything about it.........of course not.
    I was thinking of trying to make some quick money out of defence shares . It seemed so obvious , I faffed around and didn’t get round to it and then saw them rise sharply .
    Depends if you think there is more to come with them. This may just be the beginning of a great run
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    China moves north into Siberia (at least the bit that used to be Chinese).

    Still, there's peace in the Middle East, right? Right?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
    He was touring the US, backing Eric last year. All you needed for Blind Faith were the ghosts of Ric Grech and Ginger Baker.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,860
    Taz said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    What Trump does have in his favour of whatever the final settlement, he will proclaim it a great win, and his supporters will therefore proclaim it a great win and another success for Trump.

    So it doesnt really matter to Trump if we have two months of turbulence followed simply by an attempt to return to the status quo (in practice we can't as trust has evaporated which will take decades to rebuild). It will still be a GREAT SUCCESS that justified the short term pain.
    Some people are about to make a huge amount of money trading the volatility.
    Would piss myself if one of them was Soros.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Mornington Crescent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,983
    edited March 4

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
    I saw him about ten years ago at (whisper it) Colston Hall. Brilliant!

    Arc of a Diver remains a hard to beat album. Not keen on ELO mind.
    There was a loose grouping in Brum in the 80's called the E Numbers. They only did random gigs, never any publicity, purely word of mouth. Always packed. Various members of ELO were in the line up. As good as you could want.

    The guy on the tall bongos used to be able to skin up whilst playing.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    You focus on Russia and then liberate Canada later. Supply the resistance as well plus host the government in exile
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,657
    American auto dealer.

    "We built our entire business around free trade...now it's turned on a dime"

    $80K SUV truck now $100K. Customers walking away.


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1897000260573995155
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    Not exactly, as Canada is no longer a colony. Certainly awkward for Charies, though.
    What will he say about this during the state visit, I wonder ? He's traditionallg much less reticent about giving his own views than his mother was, with here there also being a lot at stake for Britain.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672
    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    One thing in Canadas favour . The government will step into help businesses effected . Will the US government step in to help businesses there ? Doubtful as that would imply tariffs are hurting and seeing as Trump started the trade war it might be a bit difficult to explain .
    Completely undermines the narrative about DOGE too, president Elon won't allow it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    That Glen track is really rather good. I had no idea he had done that one.
    Isn't it? So casually done, apparently, yet it rocks - that guitar break alone is sublime
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
    I saw him about ten years ago at (whisper it) Colston Hall. Brilliant!

    Arc of a Diver remains a hard to beat album. Not keen on ELO mind.
    There was a loose grouping in Brum in the 80's called the E Numbers. They only did random gigs, never any publicity, purely word of mouth. Always packed. Various members of ELO were in the line up. As good as you could want.

    The guy on the tall bongos used to be able to skin up whilst playing.
    I utterly despise Mr Blue Sky and Don't bring me down.

    Perhaps it was simply that Jeff Lynn and Bev Bevan were big Tory donors back in the day. Although of course Steve Winwood's older daughter ( not Lily) is married to a Tory Grandee/ Treasurer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,657
    MAGA Cult starting to say online that things economic could be getting quite bad shortly, but that this is a short term thing, a bumpy blip, whilst the Donald flushes the last of Biden's sick economics out of the system.

    Then the glory days of America will appear.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,370

    American auto dealer.

    "We built our entire business around free trade...now it's turned on a dime"

    $80K SUV truck now $100K. Customers walking away.


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1897000260573995155

    Minor point: Tariffs are applied on the wholesale value at import, minus transport costs. So it doesn't increase the retail price by 25%. 15% maybe.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    edited March 4
    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    One thing in Canadas favour . The government will step into help businesses effected . Will the US government step in to help businesses there ? Doubtful as that would imply tariffs are hurting and seeing as Trump started the trade war it might be a bit difficult to explain .
    Also, Canada mostly exports raw materials to the US.

    Will it be painful, time consuming and costly to find new export markets? Sure.

    But will it eventually happen when Canada has a choice of every other country in the world? Definitely. And government financial aid to companies is the right thing to do in such circumstances to give companies time to respond to such a dramatic change in trading rules.

    And it will be dramatically quicker to do so than it will be for the US to find and mine equivalent raw materials.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054
    Microsoft majorana quasi-particle paper possibly poor: https://youtu.be/bJTsFZtD7xE
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863
    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Starmer key to it, if it happens. The thinking is obviously to bind the U.S. in to Ukraine as far as possible, whatever that might be.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,186

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    It's not losing it that would be the problem, it's the 99 years of rent money Starmer would commit us to paying.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Phew, Zelenskyy windows won't be smashed in tonight now he's paying the hood for protection.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    carnforth said:

    American auto dealer.

    "We built our entire business around free trade...now it's turned on a dime"

    $80K SUV truck now $100K. Customers walking away.


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1897000260573995155

    Minor point: Tariffs are applied on the wholesale value at import, minus transport costs. So it doesn't increase the retail price by 25%. 15% maybe.
    Indeed although businesses may use tariffs to increase profits.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't think Donalt Trump has ever adhered to the 'wait an hour before responding' principle

    Hasn't Canada said 25% tariff on 30billion of stuff? So what's Trump going do - make his tariff 50%?

    Will the US military obey an order to invade Canada?
    Canada's response was 25% tariffs on $30bn of goods immediately and on an additional $125bn in 21 days' time.

    I assume Trump will increase his to 50%.

    Then Canada either increases to 50% or does something more incentive.

    If it gets painful enough maybe Trump caves with some token 'win'. That's the best case outcome.
    One thing in Canadas favour . The government will step into help businesses effected . Will the US government step in to help businesses there ? Doubtful as that would imply tariffs are hurting and seeing as Trump started the trade war it might be a bit difficult to explain .
    Completely undermines the narrative about DOGE too, president Elon won't allow it.
    I suspect he may be quite willing as long as Tesla gets its share of the handouts.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    An interesting theory, albeit a little conspiratorial, about why Trump is acting as he is with regards to the financial markets.

    Basically it’s a genius move to drive down the cost of the 10 year so to make refinancing of debt considerably less costly.

    https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1896972241415344477?s=61
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,186

    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Phew, Zelenskyy windows won't be smashed in tonight now he's paying the hood for protection.
    Any Ukrainian leader who signs any kind of surrender deal is going to be as popular as a dose of the clap in Ukraine. It's highly possible that the White House contretemps was staged to give Zelensky cover to sign the deal - he will now be vaguely seen as having shown some pluck in the face of Trump's demands rather than just rolling over and accepting them.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,821

    MAGA Cult starting to say online that things economic could be getting quite bad shortly, but that this is a short term thing, a bumpy blip, whilst the Donald flushes the last of Biden's sick economics out of the system.

    Then the glory days of America will appear.

    They really are pathetic . They’ll stay in denial and hold onto the cult for as long as possible , even as Trump screws them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,983

    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Starmer key to it, if it happens. The thinking is obviously to bind the U.S. in to Ukraine as far as possible, whatever that might be.
    Do the weapons start flowing again upon signature?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Phew, Zelenskyy windows won't be smashed in tonight now he's paying the hood for protection.
    Dude, that just means the hood comes back for more.

    https://youtu.be/3XGAmPRxV48?si=pC8abXdN_BK-91Hq
    Wait. Hang on. I’ve seen this. Canada is in trouble and no one else can help, so if it can find them, perhaps it should hire the A-Team?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,768
    edited March 4
    OK, PB Brains trust. Today £1 GBP = $1.28 USD approx. Where will it be on Dec 31st?
    • Under $1.20
    • $1.20 to 1.2499
    • $1.25 to 1.2999
    • $1.30 to 1.3499
    • $1.25 or more
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Leon said:

    A lot of bad news around at the moment, so if anyone needs cheering up, try this. Unbeknownst to most, country legend Glen Campbell made an absolutely superb cover version of Green Day's "Time of Your Life"

    To my mind maybe one of the best cover versions of any song ever, he took it and made it perfect


    https://youtu.be/jkORS34Lep0?si=EHAaiL3g-RN90PdI

    And if that's not enough, while searching for this video, I found another cover version of the same song, which - tho not quite as good - does feature a ravishingly pretty girl with a gorgeous voice.


    https://youtu.be/LMlIgyhR-N8?si=DGz6Cihrzv46N0l7

    Courage. We shall endure

    On covers Bryan Ferry does a lovely version of Back to Black in Jazz age fashion. Heresy but I get more from BF and Roxy than I do from Bowie nowadays.

    Bob Dylan's Hard Rains A' Gonna Fall was one of Ferry's better covers. I hated his version of Jealous Guy.

    Best cover? Reg Dwight's version of Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds.
    Bryan Ferry's These Foolish Things is a fab cover. For me the best covers of any song are either Tedeschi Trucks' cover of Angel from Montgomery, originally written by John Prine or Bonnie Raitt's cover of Can't Find My Way Home by Steve Winwood.
    All good calls. I am a big fan of Winwood . Valerie is one of my favourite songs, but yeah, Bonnie Raitt's version is great. I discovered her when she was one of the Artists United Against Apartheid. I am also a big Cat Stevens fan and Sheryl Crow's version of First Cut is the Deepest is great.

    But I am going to replace my Elton choice. John and the Beatles version of Twist and Shout is sublime, and I am not a big Beatles man.
    I am due to see Steve Winwood at Hyde Park on 13th July as he is one of the support acts for the last ever ELO concert.
    I saw him about ten years ago at (whisper it) Colston Hall. Brilliant!

    Arc of a Diver remains a hard to beat album. Not keen on ELO mind.
    This is a perfect PB conversation, on the one hand, the potential end of the world in a nuclear meltdown driven by a lunatic American president, and yet, seamlessly interwoven, a discussion of the best cover versions of beloved songs, with a sub-dialogue about the way to profit from put options on Doomsday

    By the way Arc of a Diver is one of my fave albums too, and While You See A Chance is in my top ten tracks of all time, without question

    Indeed I love it so much, and it means so much to me, I listen to it sparingly, so I don't dilute its magic

    It has become my go-to song when something really amazing and wonderful has happened in life - either for me or for those I love

    eg As many know I was accused of rape in the late 1980s and went to prison for several months, then did months on bail, and jumped bail to live like a fugitive in London, and then finally I came to trial, and I had my trial at the Old Bailey - this taking a year out of my life, when I was continuously paralysed by the fact "Shit in a month I could be doing 7 years in jail and yet I am innocent..."

    So the trial came and after four days of torment I was unanimously acquitted in short order and I literally leapt out of the dock - and then I ran out of the court, and out of the lobby, and all my family was crying and all my friends were shooting champagne in the sun outside the Old Bailey - and then this turned into a twelve hour riot of a party where even my Dad got involved in a foam fight and we had a £3 billion dinner in Soho for about forty people (paid for by the Sun who had become friends) and my God I went to bed at about 6am and when I woke up in the bright May snshine at about noon I had a few seconds of fear- thinking as normal, shit shit shit, my rape trial is looming - but then I realised WAIT NO YESTERDAY I WAS ACQUITTED, THAT'S IT, I AM FREE, IT'S ALL OVER, MY LIFE BEGINS AGAIN

    And THEN I put on Steve Winwood's "While You See a Chance" on volume 11 and OMG that was a moment, and that was THE song for that moment
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897

    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Starmer key to it, if it happens. The thinking is obviously to bind the U.S. in to Ukraine as far as possible, whatever that might be.
    Do the weapons start flowing again upon signature?
    Doubt it
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    nico67 said:

    MAGA Cult starting to say online that things economic could be getting quite bad shortly, but that this is a short term thing, a bumpy blip, whilst the Donald flushes the last of Biden's sick economics out of the system.

    Then the glory days of America will appear.

    They really are pathetic . They’ll stay in denial and hold onto the cult for as long as possible , even as Trump screws them.
    Well a lot of the US maturing debt is very front loaded to 2025 and they increased the money supply on the way out too.

    So they may have something here. Of course Trumps policies may be making it worse.

    However here is the rationale.

    https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1896972241415344477?s=61
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,657
    edited March 4
    The press are idiots. They claimed we moved hotel which is stupid because we did move hotel. I mean come on folks?



    JD Vance
    @JDVance
    These people are such idiots. We had a great time during our weekend in Vermont. We barely noticed the protesters and almost everyone we met was kind and generous. And Vermont is beautiful.

    This headline about being moved to an “undisclosed location” is that we moved our hotel so the kids could have more privacy. We didn’t disclose it because the secret service doesn’t like when we advertise my location.


    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1897002913278648397

    https://x.com/allahliker/status/1896416138613203033
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,260
    Taz said:

    An interesting theory, albeit a little conspiratorial, about why Trump is acting as he is with regards to the financial markets.

    Basically it’s a genius move to drive down the cost of the 10 year so to make refinancing of debt considerably less costly.

    https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1896972241415344477?s=61

    Yeah I've heard that too. Seems implausible as a recession also blows out the deficit. If it makes the US debt trajectory look sufficiently bad it could even drive up long end rates.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    viewcode said:

    OK, PB Brains trust. Today £1 GBP = $1.28 USD approx. Where will it be on Dec 31st?


    • Under $1.20
    • $1.20 to 1.2499
    • $1.25 to 1.2999
    • $1.30 to 1.3499
    • $1.25 or more
    Given the rate of current developments, its a bit brave expecting both the GBP and USD to still exist that far ahead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,657

    Donald Tusk
    @donaldtusk
    ·
    52m
    To all the European leaders:
    KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830

    eek said:

    pm215 said:

    FF43 said:

    I still don't really get the Canada tariff thing. I totally get Mexico, Chayna, and even the EU to an extent. I am actually open to there being an end game - there has often been method in the madness previously. I'm also open to it being pure caprice, but I usually think Trump is after 'a deal' of some sort.

    Trump sees tariffs as a source of revenue, which also boosts domestic industry. Win/win. Which contradicts a further supposed third aim of tariffs as leverage. In the first two cases you want to keep them permanently and therefore have no leverage.
    Yes, I think Trump is a genuine mercantilist -- he's happy to use tariffs as leverage in deals, but he also thinks they're good for the US in themselves, so he's happy to go ahead and impose them. (And I suspect a lot of ordinary Americans who aren't particularly interested in the finer points of modern economic consensus would agree with him. Mercantilism makes a kind of intuitive sense, which I think is why it was standard behaviour for many countries for so long.)
    Hey if you thought inflation was bad when Biden was in power - look how much (higher) I've improved it...
    He'll obviously close the agencies that provide inflation data soon.

    But voters will of course still be able to read the price increases on the shop stickers.
    It would be more American to apply the tariff when you get to the till
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    edited March 4
    ...

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    It's not losing it that would be the problem, it's the 99 years of rent money Starmer would commit us to paying.
    Starmer has forced Zelenskyy into a really shit deal. The USA handed over a couple of hundred old Ford F-350s and a hundred F15s, replacing them with two hundred new Abrams tanks and a hundred new F35s and charging Ukraine for the cost of the new price in minerals rather than the weigh in values.

    Starmer "the Art of the Deal. W*****!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 4
    viewcode said:

    OK, PB Brains trust. Today £1 GBP = $1.28 USD approx. Where will it be on Dec 31st?


    • Under $1.20
    • $1.20 to 1.2499
    • $1.25 to 1.2999
    • $1.30 to 1.3499
    • $1.25 or more
    I think there’s a typo in there, but anyhow I’d go with the bottom end of the range
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    edited March 4
    viewcode said:

    OK, PB Brains trust. Today £1 GBP = $1.28 USD approx. Where will it be on Dec 31st?


    • Under $1.20
    • $1.20 to 1.2499
    • $1.25 to 1.2999
    • $1.30 to 1.3499
    • $1.25 or more
    You’ve got a typo so I’m going to use it and say $1.25 or more
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863

    ...

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    It's not losing it that would be the problem, it's the 99 years of rent money Starmer would commit us to paying.
    Starmer has forced Zelenskyy into a really shit deal. The USA handed over a couple of hundred old Ford F-350s and a hundred F15s, replacing them with two hundred new Abrams tanks and a hundred new F35s and charging Ukraine for the cost of the new price in minerals rather than the weigh in values.

    Starmer "the Art of the Deal. W*****!
    And yet the alternative may have been even worse. The U.S. with no material interest in the Ukraine, and so no reason to maintain political interest.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054
    Everything DOGE has said is a lie, more or less. Liz Dye on DOGE: https://youtu.be/71hKowGIpHM
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,600

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    It wouldn't happen.
    Ange has emptied the bottle already.
    Plenty left over from the last administration but, erm, let me count, two I think. Just work through the fridges?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,741
    Ratters said:


    Donald Tusk
    @donaldtusk
    ·
    52m
    To all the European leaders:
    KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

    On that front, it looks like Germany is going to essentially have no constitutional limit on deficit defence spending...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/

    BERLIN — Europe’s most powerful economy is poised to take a major step to bolster its defense capabilities, with Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announcing a plan to partly exempt defense spending from the country’s constitutional fiscal restraints.

    Merz proposed that defense spending above 1 percent of gross domestic product be exempted from the restrictions of Germany’s constitutional debt brake, which limits the structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product, except in emergencies.

    Merz announced the deal to unlock defense spending alongside the leaders of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with whom his conservatives are currently in talks to form a governing coalition.

    The conservative and SPD leaders also announced a proposed €500 billion special fund to finance infrastructure projects outside of normal budgetary spending over the next decade — a plan that seems aimed at left-leaning lawmakers who otherwise might oppose loosening debt rules to enable defense spending alone.
    Merz is looking like a real operator. He may be the next leader of Europe and hopefully a lot smarter than his predecessor Merkel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    Everything DOGE has said is a lie, more or less. Liz Dye on DOGE: https://youtu.be/71hKowGIpHM

    Are you saying they're a Doge-y lot?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553

    ...

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    It's not losing it that would be the problem, it's the 99 years of rent money Starmer would commit us to paying.
    Starmer has forced Zelenskyy into a really shit deal. The USA handed over a couple of hundred old Ford F-350s and a hundred F15s, replacing them with two hundred new Abrams tanks and a hundred new F35s and charging Ukraine for the cost of the new price in minerals rather than the weigh in values.

    Starmer "the Art of the Deal. W*****!
    And yet the alternative may have been even worse. The U.S. with no material interest in the Ukraine, and so no reason to maintain political interest.
    I just don't see it. I'm with Lucky.

    Starmer is standing on the steps at Heston waving his appeasement treaty. Trump has taken him for a mug, and he has strong armed Zelensy into doing the same. Not good.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,975
    edited March 4
    When will Lineker realise that he is so last year and noone gives a fuck what he thinks
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863

    ...

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    It's not losing it that would be the problem, it's the 99 years of rent money Starmer would commit us to paying.
    Starmer has forced Zelenskyy into a really shit deal. The USA handed over a couple of hundred old Ford F-350s and a hundred F15s, replacing them with two hundred new Abrams tanks and a hundred new F35s and charging Ukraine for the cost of the new price in minerals rather than the weigh in values.

    Starmer "the Art of the Deal. W*****!
    And yet the alternative may have been even worse. The U.S. with no material interest in the Ukraine, and so no reason to maintain political interest.
    I just don't see it. I'm with Lucky.

    Starmer is standing on the steps at Heston waving his appeasement treaty. Trump has taken him for a mug, and he has strong armed Zelensy into doing the same. Not good.
    Well, i wouldn't personally see how the minerals deal precludes European involvement in the future.
    The thinking from Starner and Macron must be gain whatever possible, which is pretty reasonable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    edited March 4
    ...

    ...

    Taz said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Have another.
    If Starmer were to lose a colony like Canada to a foe, he has to fall on his sword.
    It's not losing it that would be the problem, it's the 99 years of rent money Starmer would commit us to paying.
    Starmer has forced Zelenskyy into a really shit deal. The USA handed over a couple of hundred old Ford F-350s and a hundred F15s, replacing them with two hundred new Abrams tanks and a hundred new F35s and charging Ukraine for the cost of the new price in minerals rather than the weigh in values.

    Starmer "the Art of the Deal. W*****!
    And yet the alternative may have been even worse. The U.S. with no material interest in the Ukraine, and so no reason to maintain political interest.
    I just don't see it. I'm with Lucky.

    Starmer is standing on the steps at Heston waving his appeasement treaty. Trump has taken him for a mug, and he has strong armed Zelensy into doing the same. Not good.
    Well, i wouldn't personally see how the minerals deal precludes European involvement in the future.
    The thinking from Starner and Macron must be gain whatever possible, which is pretty reasonable.
    They are buying protection from racketeers. I hate it.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    DavidL said:

    Ratters said:


    Donald Tusk
    @donaldtusk
    ·
    52m
    To all the European leaders:
    KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

    On that front, it looks like Germany is going to essentially have no constitutional limit on deficit defence spending...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/

    BERLIN — Europe’s most powerful economy is poised to take a major step to bolster its defense capabilities, with Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announcing a plan to partly exempt defense spending from the country’s constitutional fiscal restraints.

    Merz proposed that defense spending above 1 percent of gross domestic product be exempted from the restrictions of Germany’s constitutional debt brake, which limits the structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product, except in emergencies.

    Merz announced the deal to unlock defense spending alongside the leaders of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with whom his conservatives are currently in talks to form a governing coalition.

    The conservative and SPD leaders also announced a proposed €500 billion special fund to finance infrastructure projects outside of normal budgetary spending over the next decade — a plan that seems aimed at left-leaning lawmakers who otherwise might oppose loosening debt rules to enable defense spending alone.
    Merz is looking like a real operator. He may be the next leader of Europe and hopefully a lot smarter than his predecessor Merkel.
    Yep. Especially as Germany had far more headroom to spend more €/£/$ in debt sustainability terms than pretty much every other developed nation combined. People were expecting a special fund but this is far more open ended in nature.

    Sounds like a big rearmament of Germany is ahead of us.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,768
    eek said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, PB Brains trust. Today £1 GBP = $1.28 USD approx. Where will it be on Dec 31st?


    • Under $1.20
    • $1.20 to 1.2499
    • $1.25 to 1.2999
    • $1.30 to 1.3499
    • $1.25 or more
    You’ve got a typo so I’m going to use it and say $1.25 or more
    It's one of those "you have three wishes but you have to word it really carefully" things, isn't it... :(
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,975
    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405

    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Starmer key to it, if it happens. The thinking is obviously to bind the U.S. in to Ukraine as far as possible, whatever that might be.
    Do the weapons start flowing again upon signature?
    Doubt it
    The weapons start flowing, but to Moscow instead of Kiev.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405

    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new

    Have you priced in the 25% tariff?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    ...

    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new

    Costco aren't normally cheap, and the address looks odd.

    That looks as dodgy as a Trump Social post, although I could be wrong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553

    Taz said:

    Reuters reporting the minerals deal will be signed before the presidential address.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1897003595381530904?s=61

    Starmer key to it, if it happens. The thinking is obviously to bind the U.S. in to Ukraine as far as possible, whatever that might be.
    Do the weapons start flowing again upon signature?
    Doubt it
    The weapons start flowing, but to Moscow instead of Kiev.
    If Trump can offload his end of life military hardware for half Russia's mineral wealth, I would say that's the Art of the Deal.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,397
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    An interesting theory, albeit a little conspiratorial, about why Trump is acting as he is with regards to the financial markets.

    Basically it’s a genius move to drive down the cost of the 10 year so to make refinancing of debt considerably less costly.

    https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1896972241415344477?s=61

    I have an alternative theory.

    That he's a fucking imbecile who doesn't understand finance, economics, taxation or trade.
    Here's another theory.

    What he, Musk and so on really care about is the huge tax cut that is going through Congress, and that is what really matters to them.

    It's very unpopular, but they got it through the election by promising to reduce taxes on tips and other irritants for working class Americans at the same time. Now, mysteriously, all that has disappeared from the bill, and you're just left with huge and unpopular tax cuts for the very rich.

    And now all the crap about invading Canada and Greenland, starting trade wars and so on is just to distract from the big tax cut they're proposing.

    So called "flooding the zone".

    It's not an original thought (e.g. see here https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/flood-the-zone-donald-trump/) but it makes a lot of the otherwise inexplicable make sense. Maybe Trump is stupid and dangerous enough to buy the crap he spouts, but not everybody who supports him is.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,274
    This just came across my YouTube feed:

    1990(1 Aug) NatWest cricket Quarter-Final highlights, Hampshire (Hants) v Yorkshire

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVZJunlto1M

    I remember watching this at the time.

    Why ? Because a few hours later Iraq invaded Kuwait.

    Funny the associations your mind makes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,600

    ...

    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new

    Costco aren't normally cheap, and the address looks odd.

    That looks as dodgy as a Trump Social post, although I could be wrong.
    Looking at the actual Costco site, they don't even sell Samsung tablets of any kind ... or at least the Samsung things are the ones you put washing tablets in ...



  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    An interesting theory, albeit a little conspiratorial, about why Trump is acting as he is with regards to the financial markets.

    Basically it’s a genius move to drive down the cost of the 10 year so to make refinancing of debt considerably less costly.

    https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1896972241415344477?s=61

    I have an alternative theory.

    That he's a fucking imbecile who doesn't understand finance, economics, taxation or trade.
    Here's another theory.

    What he, Musk and so on really care about is the huge tax cut that is going through Congress, and that is what really matters to them.

    It's very unpopular, but they got it through the election by promising to reduce taxes on tips and other irritants for working class Americans at the same time. Now, mysteriously, all that has disappeared from the bill, and you're just left with huge and unpopular tax cuts for the very rich.

    And now all the crap about invading Canada and Greenland, starting trade wars and so on is just to distract from the big tax cut they're proposing.

    So called "flooding the zone".

    It's not an original thought (e.g. see here https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/flood-the-zone-donald-trump/) but it makes a lot of the otherwise inexplicable make sense. Maybe Trump is stupid and dangerous enough to buy the crap he spouts, but not everybody who supports him is.
    So either Trump is a 12D Grand Master or an idiot. Can I come back to you...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    ...

    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new

    Costco aren't normally cheap, and the address looks odd.

    That looks as dodgy as a Trump Social post, although I could be wrong.
    Gkznh comes up on a Trustpilot search replete with the Costco screen grab, and no reviews.

    I wouldn't go near it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,260
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    An interesting theory, albeit a little conspiratorial, about why Trump is acting as he is with regards to the financial markets.

    Basically it’s a genius move to drive down the cost of the 10 year so to make refinancing of debt considerably less costly.

    https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1896972241415344477?s=61

    I have an alternative theory.

    That he's a fucking imbecile who doesn't understand finance, economics, taxation or trade.
    Here's another theory.

    What he, Musk and so on really care about is the huge tax cut that is going through Congress, and that is what really matters to them.

    It's very unpopular, but they got it through the election by promising to reduce taxes on tips and other irritants for working class Americans at the same time. Now, mysteriously, all that has disappeared from the bill, and you're just left with huge and unpopular tax cuts for the very rich.

    And now all the crap about invading Canada and Greenland, starting trade wars and so on is just to distract from the big tax cut they're proposing.

    So called "flooding the zone".

    It's not an original thought (e.g. see here https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/flood-the-zone-donald-trump/) but it makes a lot of the otherwise inexplicable make sense. Maybe Trump is stupid and dangerous enough to buy the crap he spouts, but not everybody who supports him is.
    The trade wars have another purpose - to raise tariff revenue (taxes on imported goods paid disproportionately by the less well off) to fund the tax cuts for the rich.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    There is a lot of sane washing going on. Desperate attempts to find a rationale that delivers hope.

    It isn’t there. They’re only just getting started. It’s going to get worse before it gets better and we have to hunker down.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,768

    ...

    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new

    Costco aren't normally cheap, and the address looks odd.

    That looks as dodgy as a Trump Social post, although I could be wrong.
    Too early to tell: it's only 12 days old. Give it a month or two...

    https://www.scamvoid.net/check/gkznh.shop/
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,975
    edited March 4
    Thank you all for confirmation of what I thought.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,600
    viewcode said:

    ...

    Does anyone know if this is a scam website. The price seems too good to be true.....
    https://www.gkznh.shop/comments/samsung-galaxy-tab-a9-plus-11-inch-wifi-tablet-64-gb-4gb-ram-2023-brand-new

    Costco aren't normally cheap, and the address looks odd.

    That looks as dodgy as a Trump Social post, although I could be wrong.
    Too early to tell: it's only 12 days old. Give it a month or two...

    https://www.scamvoid.net/check/gkznh.shop/
    Ah what the hell, let's encourage Squareroot2 to bell the cat and let us all know the results. It's not as if Costco haven't been around for decades.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment.

    Putin moves West into the Baltic states
    Trump moves North into Canada

    You’re sitting in no10, what do you after you’ve had a glass of whisky.

    Move SE and take the Low Countries.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,553
    Jonathan said:

    There is a lot of sane washing going on. Desperate attempts to find a rationale that delivers hope.

    It isn’t there. They’re only just getting started. It’s going to get worse before it gets better and we have to hunker down.

    For a man who apparently can't read, his 4D chess brilliance is remarkable.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,030
    Best cover that takes a plodder of a song and spins it into sonic gold is Without You by Harry Nilsson.

    Well, best cover that isn't Aretha, at least.
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