Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON
Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period – Jan 9-11th. The only difference is that the Populus survey was online and Ashcroft by phone.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Truly shocking.
A new innovation?
Shame on you.
Lord Ashcroft comments:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/ashcroft-national-poll-con-34-lab-28-lib-dem-8-ukip-16-green-8/
Main change is UKIP prompt - which has seen their poll rating fall!
Labour polling lower than they did in 2010.
Where's your Lib Dem Firewall now?
(I expect the Lord Ashcroft poll is as much an outlier as the Populus was
But it is great to say sleazy broken Labour and UKIP on the slide.)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/554623413676175360
It'll be interesting to see if this puts some 'poll pressure' on Ed Miliband and his team.
Populus (according to Baxter) results in a Labour majority of 64. Ashcroft results in the Conservatives just 2 short of a majority (in practice, I think the Conservatives would just scrape a majority on 34/28%).
TI at $46.48
and "new innovation" is tautologous.
Ashcroft's polls were initially all over the place with dramatic changes from one to the next but they had stabilised quite a bit in the last few months. This is back to the swing hard days. It is also slightly odd that the tories do so much better with Ashcroft when UKIP are doing better too. Presumably the greens are really hurting Labour in his poll.
The current polls remind me of the Greenspan quote
"If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said"
By the way - is it illegal for a Tory donor and / or the Tory party to spend their whole election budget once on themeselves and once again as a donation to the Greens? Looking like every Green vote these days is a straight 'not Labour' vote. Could be an effective strategy!
I am sure I read that somewhere...
Both look outliers and if you assume the reality is somewhere in the middle you probably have Lab and Con tied.
Is it possible that Miliband/Labour continually saying how rubbish the NHS is reflects very negatively on Labour in Wales?
He thinks he's criticising Cameron and the Tories, but it's stupidly counter-productive in Wales.
Odd, innit?
And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.
Shares in SSE and Centrica have fallen after Ed Miliband said regulator Ofgem should be given new powers to force firms to cut energy bills.
The Labour leader told the BBC he would demand fast-track legislation on energy in a Commons debate.
SSE shares were down 2.6% while Centrica, the company which owns British Gas, fell 2.3%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30775940
I stick with my forecast of:
Greens 31%
UKIP 29%
SNP 24%
Others nowhere
(TCP LabGE Rule 1)
As regards Rotherham, I always thought that MPs avoided libel/slander cases on politics unless absolutely necessary. I can see why they'd like it made plain they knew nuffin, but if it drags out the "did he, didn't he know" aspect, it won't be good politics.
The former MP, Mr McShane, has already admitted that he should have done more. Even if the current MPs win the case, the washing could be dirty.
(^_-)
If haruspication were an exact science then there would should be no profit or loss in betting.
Without populus we would have a "save Ed re-launch" campaign.
http://tinyurl.com/npdxx63
Does anyone know when the case would likely be? If after the GE then I could see why they would if it silences UKIP. Having watched Jane Collin's speech at the Doncaster conference I didn't see anything particularly scandalous.
Maybe the voters have a sense of humour after all
Needless to say, the rather subdued response among the Conservative supporters on here after the morning Populus poll has been replaced by something akin to euphoria over the Ashcroft poll this afternoon.
Ho hum...Ashcroft has pitched around quite a bit in preceding months so to suddenlu assume this one poll is completely and utterly accurate seems absurd at best. Populus is not without its flaws either so we have two very different polls from two very different pollsters compiled in two very different ways.
The reactions of the partisans are to be expected as will the reaction to the next Conservative lead on YouGov (tonight perhaps ?). The terrible events of last week may be having an impact - times of crisis (perceived or actual) are always good for leaders as they can appear statesmanlike on the world stage while the LOTO is left powerless on the sidelines.
There are, I would guess, perhaps another 150-200 polls to digest before the only one that counts (roughly one and a bit per day as there will be multiple daily polls from dissolution onward). If some people are getting excited about these two, they won't make it to May 7th.
Ashcroft 28 (phone)
Ipsos 29 (phone)
Comres 32 (phone)
Yougov 32 (online)
ICM 33 (phone)
Survation 33 (online)
Opinium 33 (online)
Comres 34(online)
Populus 37 (online - 34 Friday)
On the other hand, I want to see fieldwork during first week of February to see the way the wind is blowing. If the Tories go into February with anything like a 6% lead over Labour then it's game over.
So am I. The MPs could get a pay-out but the party wouldn't thank them.
Ukip could make a tactical decision to defend it and do it before May. Call Denis McShane as a witness and question him about his admission that Labour was wedded to political correctness. It may be unfair but the publicity would be worth a lot to Ukip.
Has Bobajob_ done a runner again?
"And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings."
Do you think Populus were just being deferential their ennobled client?
I wonder if voters have worked out Ed Miliband is the only thing standing between them and much cheaper gas.
However, the 'window' of working outcomes is small, unless UKIP can get 20 seats or so, which looks like a tough ask at present.
@VickiYoung01: Yvette Cooper says further counter terrorism legislation will be needed before 2016.
EDIT: Tory-LD-DUP might just work.
Disclaimer: I sold all my holdings in UK utilities (other than National Grid), oil companies, and oil service companies some months ago.
16 hours 16 minutes 16 seconds
1. UKIP would demand an early referendum (a bit like with AV :-))
2. UKIP would not be able to de demand that the Conservatives campaigned against membership of the EU, but they could get Cameron to agree to individual MPs and Ministers campaigning as they see fit
3. UKIP could get a cabinet post, but given they'd have maybe a fifth of the number of seats the LibDems got in 2010, they probably wouldn't get more than 1 or 2 - Chief Secretary to the Treasury Farage?
Frit, Frit, Frit!
Any value in the Hampstead constituency market ?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/the-seven-green-taxes-that-put-112-on-your-energy-bill-and-which-of-them-ed-miliband-brought-in/
Miliband's a one man cost of living crisis.
But I don't see it. UKIP will have about 6 MPs. There's a limit to how much that is worth to the Tories in terms of offering a coalition deal. And a limited offer to UKIP isn't worth much in terms of the electoral cost of going in with the toxic Tories. If UKIP had 20 MPs, it'd be a different matter, but I don't see it this time round.
I know his recent Brighton Pavillion poll was carried out at the ICM Bedford polling centre.
More seriously, I cannot see this sort of scenario happening. Why now of all times? I can see the Tories getting that high, but Labour that low? Before the 'proper' Ed M affect we've been told to wait until the proper campaign to wait for?
In some ways Cameron will have a bigger headache if he pulls this off by a narrow squeak, but I think he will go 30 odd clear or more.
Of course, this could be, as Lord A says, MoE apart from the rise in the Cons share. Or it could be the sign of a trend. To use the cliche, only time will tell.
I just don't think when faced with the choice people are going to rate Miliband as prime ministerial, and whatever Mike says about constituency voting, which is on the surface true, we all think about where that cross may lead and who we want leading the country.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21638111-conservatives-former-deputy-chairman-lord-ashcroft-thriving-pollster-above-fray
Very well worth a read.
The Tories do not have the excellent Chris Philip, so I would expect them to fall back.
The LibDem candidate is outstanding, but they won't buck their downward fall. They won't lose two-thirds of their vote, as they will in the rest of the country, but they'll lose a lot of votes to Labour.
So, I predict a fairly comfortable Labour hold.
The other thought I have is that all the messages are about why you should NOT vote for other parties - the winning team might just be the one which comes up with a solid optimistic reason why people should vote FOR them.
Could you please link me to your sources for Hisham, Khalikan and al-Baghdadi? I'm genuinely interested.
I wondered whether Maajid Nawas's recent high media profile might have provided some scope?