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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period – Jan 9-11th. The only difference is that the Populus survey was online and Ashcroft by phone.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Ashcroft is the gold standard

felix

The Ashcroft poll is clearly the start of a trend while the Populus poll still has the xmas decs up:)

CD13

Mr Smithson,

Truly shocking.

A new innovation?

Shame on you.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ashcroft is the gold standard

Or Rose Tinted?

Lord Ashcroft comments:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/ashcroft-national-poll-con-34-lab-28-lib-dem-8-ukip-16-green-8/

Main change is UKIP prompt - which has seen their poll rating fall!

TheScreamingEagles

There's your swingback Bobajob

Labour polling lower than they did in 2010.

Where's your Lib Dem Firewall now?

(I expect the Lord Ashcroft poll is as much an outlier as the Populus was

But it is great to say sleazy broken Labour and UKIP on the slide.)

JWisemann

Both clearly outliers consistent with a tiny lab lead. What is clear is that even polls showing a con lead have a low con share (just lower lab), the opposite isnt true however.

Sunil_Prasannan

The first ELBOW of the new year for last week has Labour only 0.8% ahead (they were 2.6% ahead in the last ELBOW of 2014).

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/554623413676175360

felix

CD13 said:

Mr Smithson,

Truly shocking.

A new innovation?

Shame on you.

He's clearly moving to the right - old innovations are always the best ones.

TheScreamingEagles

Baxtering the Ashcroft poll puts the Tories two short of a majority, and a technical majority if the Shinners continue not to take up their seats.

chestnut

Tories 8 point lead in England - 37-29.

kjohnw

felix said:

The Ashcroft poll is clearly the start of a trend while the Populus poll still has the xmas decs up:)

it took populus until today to take the 15/12/14 poll off their homepage, so i suspect you are correct

NickPalmer

Very odd! If we average the two we get a virtual tie, which fits with recent YouGovs. Averaging polls with different methodologies is a bit naughty but it seems the default guess on what's happening.

felix

JWisemann said:

Both clearly outliers consistent with a tiny lab lead. What is clear is that even polls showing a con lead have a low con share (just lower lab), the opposite isnt true however.

I see you've grabbed Carlotta's rose -tinted glasses.

taffys

ories 8 point lead in England - 37-29.

It'll be interesting to see if this puts some 'poll pressure' on Ed Miliband and his team.

glw

chestnut said:

Tories 8 point lead in England - 37-29.

The Murphy effect?

A_Man_Called_Horse

"Sleezy broken Gabble on the slide" -- ah, those were the days!

Sean_F

Both of them are extreme outliers.

Populus (according to Baxter) results in a Labour majority of 64. Ashcroft results in the Conservatives just 2 short of a majority (in practice, I think the Conservatives would just scrape a majority on 34/28%).

Bond_James_Bond

now trading at $47.60 having been as low as $47.18.

TI at $46.48

and "new innovation" is tautologous.

chestnut

Populus and Ashcroft consistent in having Tories ahead in all age groups from 45 upwards.

felix

chestnut said:

Populus and Ashcroft consistent in having Tories ahead in all age groups from 45 upwards.

And they are the ones who actually turn out and vote.

AndyJS

It's always more interesting on PB when the polls don't agree with each other.

DavidL

Wow. That is a difference.

Ashcroft's polls were initially all over the place with dramatic changes from one to the next but they had stabilised quite a bit in the last few months. This is back to the swing hard days. It is also slightly odd that the tories do so much better with Ashcroft when UKIP are doing better too. Presumably the greens are really hurting Labour in his poll.

The current polls remind me of the Greenspan quote

"If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said"

kjohnw

if yougov show crossover tonight it'll be squeaky bum time at labour HQ

AndyJS

And pollsters are probably more reliable at polling older age groups, for obvious reasons.

chestnut said:

Populus and Ashcroft consistent in having Tories ahead in all age groups from 45 upwards.

Sean_F

JWisemann said:

Both clearly outliers consistent with a tiny lab lead. What is clear is that even polls showing a con lead have a low con share (just lower lab), the opposite isnt true however.

Populus is the only company that frequently gives Labour high vote shares.

TheWatcher

DavidL said:

Wow. That is a difference.

Ashcroft's polls were initially all over the place with dramatic changes from one to the next but they had stabilised quite a bit in the last few months. This is back to the swing hard days. It is also slightly odd that the tories do so much better with Ashcroft when UKIP are doing better too. Presumably the greens are really hurting Labour in his poll.

The current polls remind me of the Greenspan quote

"If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said"

Greens hurting Labour? Perhaps Ed would like to argue his point with them, in a TV debate...

NickPalmer

Looking at the Ashcroft entrails, something that stands out is the complete disappearance of Red Liberals - indeed, among 2010 LibDems, the Tories are now ahead of Labour in this poll, while the Greens are ahead of both of them, which is very different from not just Populus but every other poll we've seen. The other factor that drives the result is much higher Tory certainty to vote - before allowing for that, the lead is 2.

[Deleted User]

Interesting that everyone is saying the Tories are in the low 30s but that Labour is all over the place. How firm is the 'put Ed in No.10' vote?

By the way - is it illegal for a Tory donor and / or the Tory party to spend their whole election budget once on themeselves and once again as a donation to the Greens? Looking like every Green vote these days is a straight 'not Labour' vote. Could be an effective strategy!

DavidL

Sean_F said:

JWisemann said:

Both clearly outliers consistent with a tiny lab lead. What is clear is that even polls showing a con lead have a low con share (just lower lab), the opposite isnt true however.

Populus is the only company that frequently gives Labour high vote shares.

Yes and it is all about the Labour vote. The other differences for the other parties are all comfortably in MoE territory. But a 9 point difference for Labour is extraordinary.

Scott_P

NickPalmer said:

among 2010 LibDems, the Tories are now ahead of Labour in this poll

But they were an un-breachable firewall!!

I am sure I read that somewhere...

GIN1138

Not sure Populus and Lord Ashcroft are really that strange. One give's Labour a 5% lead the other gives the Tories a 6% lead.

Both look outliers and if you assume the reality is somewhere in the middle you probably have Lab and Con tied.

DavidL

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

Wow. That is a difference.

Ashcroft's polls were initially all over the place with dramatic changes from one to the next but they had stabilised quite a bit in the last few months. This is back to the swing hard days. It is also slightly odd that the tories do so much better with Ashcroft when UKIP are doing better too. Presumably the greens are really hurting Labour in his poll.

The current polls remind me of the Greenspan quote

"If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said"

Greens hurting Labour? Perhaps Ed would like to argue his point with them, in a TV debate...

Or perhaps he wouldn't for the exactly the same reasons that Cameron is not particularly thrilled about debating with Farage. Lots of potential downsides and not a lot of up.

chestnut

The Ashcroft number for Labour in Wales is decidedly lower than they have been getting in Wales-only polls.

Is it possible that Miliband/Labour continually saying how rubbish the NHS is reflects very negatively on Labour in Wales?

He thinks he's criticising Cameron and the Tories, but it's stupidly counter-productive in Wales.

NickPalmer

Scott_P said:

NickPalmer said:

among 2010 LibDems, the Tories are now ahead of Labour in this poll

But they were an un-breachable firewall!!

I am sure I read that somewhere...

Indeed. And in the Populus poll the 2010 LibDems break 31% to Labour, 13% to Tories and 8% to Greens.

Odd, innit?

Sean_F

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

taffys

This poll is the first for me that reflects what we see when voters turn up and cast ballots in real elections since 2014.

Financier

The Voice of Death

Shares in SSE and Centrica have fallen after Ed Miliband said regulator Ofgem should be given new powers to force firms to cut energy bills.

The Labour leader told the BBC he would demand fast-track legislation on energy in a Commons debate.

SSE shares were down 2.6% while Centrica, the company which owns British Gas, fell 2.3%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30775940

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

LOL!

I stick with my forecast of:

Greens 31%
UKIP 29%
SNP 24%
Others nowhere

RobD

Holy swingback batman!

TCPoliticalBetting

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour polling lower than they did in 2010.

Labour always lose votes at the first GE after the GE where they have lost power.
(TCP LabGE Rule 1)

CD13

So overall, a near-tie?

As regards Rotherham, I always thought that MPs avoided libel/slander cases on politics unless absolutely necessary. I can see why they'd like it made plain they knew nuffin, but if it drags out the "did he, didn't he know" aspect, it won't be good politics.

The former MP, Mr McShane, has already admitted that he should have done more. Even if the current MPs win the case, the washing could be dirty.

DavidL

The difference is, to put it into perspective, that 1 in 4 of those who are supposedly going to vote Labour in the internet poll are going to vote for someone else in the phone poll. 1 in 4. From the same company. It is ridiculous.

RodCrosby

I'm saying nothing...

(^_-)

Toms

Speaking of tautologies here's one:

If haruspication were an exact science then there would should be no profit or loss in betting.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

Is it really done by Populus, doesn't say so anywhere on the table.

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's your swingback Bobajob

They seek him here...they seek him there...

Artist

If a 5% Labour lead is an outlier then there were a lot of outliers in November and December.

kjohnw

how susceptible are online polls to gerrymandering by political parties in order to set the political weather?

Flightpath

TheScreamingEagles said:

Baxtering the Ashcroft poll puts the Tories two short of a majority, and a technical majority if the Shinners continue not to take up their seats.

Is the Goldilocks scenario for the nation a single figure tory majority with Danny Alexander as Deputy PM? ;-)

TCPoliticalBetting

At last some cheer.
Without populus we would have a "save Ed re-launch" campaign.
http://tinyurl.com/npdxx63

MP_SE

CD13 said:

So overall, a near-tie?

As regards Rotherham, I always thought that MPs avoided libel/slander cases on politics unless absolutely necessary. I can see why they'd like it made plain they knew nuffin, but if it drags out the "did he, didn't he know" aspect, it won't be good politics.

The former MP, Mr McShane, has already admitted that he should have done more. Even if the current MPs win the case, the washing could be dirty.

I am really struggling to see what Labour has to gain from this.

Does anyone know when the case would likely be? If after the GE then I could see why they would if it silences UKIP. Having watched Jane Collin's speech at the Doncaster conference I didn't see anything particularly scandalous.

taffys

Looking at the numbers, is a tory kipper alliance completely out of the question?

Maybe the voters have a sense of humour after all

TCPoliticalBetting

MP_SE said:

CD13 said:

So overall, a near-tie?

As regards Rotherham, I always thought that MPs avoided libel/slander cases on politics unless absolutely necessary. I can see why they'd like it made plain they knew nuffin, but if it drags out the "did he, didn't he know" aspect, it won't be good politics.

The former MP, Mr McShane, has already admitted that he should have done more. Even if the current MPs win the case, the washing could be dirty.

I am really struggling to see what Labour has to gain from this.

Does anyone know when the case would likely be? If after the GE then I could see why they would if it silences UKIP. Having watched Jane Collin's speech at the Doncaster conference I didn't see anything particularly scandalous.

She misspoke. A court case with 3 Labour MPs defending their work in the abuse scandal may not be that smart.

Tissue_Price

Interesting that betfair rates Lord Ashcroft over Populus. Betfair barely budged earlier (in fact there was an odd trade backing the Tories after Populus came out, which in retrospect looks inside-informationy).

Sunil_Prasannan

RodCrosby said:

I'm saying nothing...

(^_-)

Populus?

audreyanne

As I've always said, Lord Ashcroft is the gold standard of polling.

stodge

Afternoon all

Needless to say, the rather subdued response among the Conservative supporters on here after the morning Populus poll has been replaced by something akin to euphoria over the Ashcroft poll this afternoon.

Ho hum...Ashcroft has pitched around quite a bit in preceding months so to suddenlu assume this one poll is completely and utterly accurate seems absurd at best. Populus is not without its flaws either so we have two very different polls from two very different pollsters compiled in two very different ways.

The reactions of the partisans are to be expected as will the reaction to the next Conservative lead on YouGov (tonight perhaps ?). The terrible events of last week may be having an impact - times of crisis (perceived or actual) are always good for leaders as they can appear statesmanlike on the world stage while the LOTO is left powerless on the sidelines.

There are, I would guess, perhaps another 150-200 polls to digest before the only one that counts (roughly one and a bit per day as there will be multiple daily polls from dissolution onward). If some people are getting excited about these two, they won't make it to May 7th.

AlastairMeeks

If you take individual polls seriously, you will go mad. Me, I keep an empty mind.

audreyanne

taffys said:

Looking at the numbers, is a tory kipper alliance completely out of the question?

Maybe the voters have a sense of humour after all

Who needs an alliance? 6% would only be about 1% shy of outright, especially when you consider the LD to Cons English seats (and Lab to SNP in Scotland though that doesn't add to Cons of course).

TCPoliticalBetting

Financier said:

The Voice of Death

Shares in SSE and Centrica have fallen after Ed Miliband said regulator Ofgem should be given new powers to force firms to cut energy bills.

The Labour leader told the BBC he would demand fast-track legislation on energy in a Commons debate.

SSE shares were down 2.6% while Centrica, the company which owns British Gas, fell 2.3%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30775940

If the main energy companies re-based to $50 their charges, it might finish Miliband off. Maybe one of them has to be bold and grab market share?

AlastairMeeks

stodge said:

Afternoon all

Needless to say, the rather subdued response among the Conservative supporters on here after the morning Populus poll has been replaced by something akin to euphoria over the Ashcroft poll this afternoon.

Ho hum...Ashcroft has pitched around quite a bit in preceding months so to suddenlu assume this one poll is completely and utterly accurate seems absurd at best. Populus is not without its flaws either so we have two very different polls from two very different pollsters compiled in two very different ways.

The reactions of the partisans are to be expected as will the reaction to the next Conservative lead on YouGov (tonight perhaps ?). The terrible events of last week may be having an impact - times of crisis (perceived or actual) are always good for leaders as they can appear statesmanlike on the world stage while the LOTO is left powerless on the sidelines.

There are, I would guess, perhaps another 150-200 polls to digest before the only one that counts (roughly one and a bit per day as there will be multiple daily polls from dissolution onward). If some people are getting excited about these two, they won't make it to May 7th.

What a clever way of culling political wonks. It saves all the effort of building an Ark B.

chestnut

Labour latest scores:

Ashcroft 28 (phone)
Ipsos 29 (phone)
Comres 32 (phone)
Yougov 32 (online)
ICM 33 (phone)
Survation 33 (online)
Opinium 33 (online)
Comres 34(online)
Populus 37 (online - 34 Friday)

audreyanne

taffys said:

This poll is the first for me that reflects what we see when voters turn up and cast ballots in real elections since 2014.

Yep. It could be the first sign of people actually facing up to the real question of how they will actually vote in the actual election.

On the other hand, I want to see fieldwork during first week of February to see the way the wind is blowing. If the Tories go into February with anything like a 6% lead over Labour then it's game over.

CD13

"I am really struggling to see what Labour has to gain from this."

So am I. The MPs could get a pay-out but the party wouldn't thank them.

Ukip could make a tactical decision to defend it and do it before May. Call Denis McShane as a witness and question him about his admission that Labour was wedded to political correctness. It may be unfair but the publicity would be worth a lot to Ukip.

Sean_F

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

Is it really done by Populus, doesn't say so anywhere on the table.

I'm pretty sure that Populus gather the raw data for Lord Ashcroft.

john_zims

'How does swingback work?'


Has Bobajob_ done a runner again?

Roger

SeanF

"And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings."

Do you think Populus were just being deferential their ennobled client?

taffys

Maybe one of them has to be bold and grab market share?

I wonder if voters have worked out Ed Miliband is the only thing standing between them and much cheaper gas.

rcs1000

taffys said:

Looking at the numbers, is a tory kipper alliance completely out of the question?

Maybe the voters have a sense of humour after all

If the Conservatives get 320-odd seats, and the Kippers (say) 10, then it's possible.

However, the 'window' of working outcomes is small, unless UKIP can get 20 seats or so, which looks like a tough ask at present.

Scott_P

To all those saying Cameron has put them off voting Tory with the "snooper's charter"...

@VickiYoung01: Yvette Cooper says further counter terrorism legislation will be needed before 2016.

Socrates

audreyanne said:

taffys said:

Looking at the numbers, is a tory kipper alliance completely out of the question?

Maybe the voters have a sense of humour after all

Who needs an alliance? 6% would only be about 1% shy of outright, especially when you consider the LD to Cons English seats (and Lab to SNP in Scotland though that doesn't add to Cons of course).

You still need about 20 seats north of a majority to run a government. Not that UKIP would be enough to get you there. The only viable parliamentary maths here is Con-SNP or grand coalition, and the SNP have ruled out the former.

EDIT: Tory-LD-DUP might just work.

Richard_Nabavi

taffys said:

Maybe one of them has to be bold and grab market share?

Trouble is that an increased market share increases your losses if Ed starts meddling in the way he has said he will.

Disclaimer: I sold all my holdings in UK utilities (other than National Grid), oil companies, and oil service companies some months ago.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

16 hours 16 minutes 16 seconds

rcs1000

Re Conservative-UKIP, the question is what would be on the table:

1. UKIP would demand an early referendum (a bit like with AV :-))
2. UKIP would not be able to de demand that the Conservatives campaigned against membership of the EU, but they could get Cameron to agree to individual MPs and Ministers campaigning as they see fit
3. UKIP could get a cabinet post, but given they'd have maybe a fifth of the number of seats the LibDems got in 2010, they probably wouldn't get more than 1 or 2 - Chief Secretary to the Treasury Farage?

Scott_P

@DanHannanMEP: Miliband tries to weaponise the Paris atrocity by claiming - absurdly, tastelessly - that Euroscepticism costs lives. http://t.co/mLIbw65D34

peter_from_putney

If OGH is confused, then so too are Sporting ...... with their GE Seats Spread Market closed yet again.
Frit, Frit, Frit!

JackW

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

LOL!

I stick with my forecast of:

Greens 31%
UKIP 29%
SNP 24%
Others nowhere

Repeat request from earlier today.

Any value in the Hampstead constituency market ?

TheWatcher

taffys said:

Maybe one of them has to be bold and grab market share?

I wonder if voters have worked out Ed Miliband is the only thing standing between them and much cheaper gas.

As well as the price freeze, he bears responsibility for the best part of £80 on everyone's annual bill from his time at DECC.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/the-seven-green-taxes-that-put-112-on-your-energy-bill-and-which-of-them-ed-miliband-brought-in/

Miliband's a one man cost of living crisis.

audreyanne

By the way, re. the wrong direction I wouldn't expect anything less in early January.

Socrates

rcs1000 said:

Re Conservative-UKIP, the question is what would be on the table:

1. UKIP would demand an early referendum (a bit like with AV :-))
2. UKIP would not be able to de demand that the Conservatives campaigned against membership of the EU, but they could get Cameron to agree to individual MPs and Ministers campaigning as they see fit
3. UKIP could get a cabinet post, but given they'd have maybe a fifth of the number of seats the LibDems got in 2010, they probably wouldn't get more than 1 or 2 - Chief Secretary to the Treasury Farage?

A genuine reduction in immigration could be supported by both sides.

But I don't see it. UKIP will have about 6 MPs. There's a limit to how much that is worth to the Tories in terms of offering a coalition deal. And a limited offer to UKIP isn't worth much in terms of the electoral cost of going in with the toxic Tories. If UKIP had 20 MPs, it'd be a different matter, but I don't see it this time round.

MikeSmithson

Sean_F said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

Is it really done by Populus, doesn't say so anywhere on the table.

I'm pretty sure that Populus gather the raw data for Lord Ashcroft.

When I met him before Christmas Lord A said that he uses a range of phone pollsters to carry out his fieldwork. Given his constituency polling alone since last May has an overall sample of 150k then it is hard to see how any one firm can meet his demands .

I know his recent Brighton Pavillion poll was carried out at the ICM Bedford polling centre.

Flightpath

TheWatcher said:

taffys said:

Maybe one of them has to be bold and grab market share?

I wonder if voters have worked out Ed Miliband is the only thing standing between them and much cheaper gas.

As well as the price freeze, he bears responsibility for the best part of £80 on everyone's annual bill from his time at DECC.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/the-seven-green-taxes-that-put-112-on-your-energy-bill-and-which-of-them-ed-miliband-brought-in/

Miliband's a one man cost of living crisis.

I hope the tories make that clear. After all if you can't kick a man when he's down when else can you kick him?

kle4

FPT:

Tissue_Price said:

Jesus, 11 point swingback since lunch. Labour will be on 0% by dawn.

Who only knows where they could fall from there?!

More seriously, I cannot see this sort of scenario happening. Why now of all times? I can see the Tories getting that high, but Labour that low? Before the 'proper' Ed M affect we've been told to wait until the proper campaign to wait for?

audreyanne

Socrates said:

audreyanne said:

taffys said:

Looking at the numbers, is a tory kipper alliance completely out of the question?

Maybe the voters have a sense of humour after all

Who needs an alliance? 6% would only be about 1% shy of outright, especially when you consider the LD to Cons English seats (and Lab to SNP in Scotland though that doesn't add to Cons of course).

You still need about 20 seats north of a majority to run a government. Not that UKIP would be enough to get you there. The only viable parliamentary maths here is Con-SNP or grand coalition, and the SNP have ruled out the former.

EDIT: Tory-LD-DUP might just work.

I agree with you on that, and I think, honestly think not just trolling, that the Conservatives will win a clear majority with enough to govern i.e. north of 20.

In some ways Cameron will have a bigger headache if he pulls this off by a narrow squeak, but I think he will go 30 odd clear or more.

Of course, this could be, as Lord A says, MoE apart from the rise in the Cons share. Or it could be the sign of a trend. To use the cliche, only time will tell.

I just don't think when faced with the choice people are going to rate Miliband as prime ministerial, and whatever Mike says about constituency voting, which is on the surface true, we all think about where that cross may lead and who we want leading the country.

AlastairMeeks

By the way, if anyone missed the Economist's interview of Lord Ashcroft in last week's issue, here it is:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21638111-conservatives-former-deputy-chairman-lord-ashcroft-thriving-pollster-above-fray

Very well worth a read.

JackW

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

Is it really done by Populus, doesn't say so anywhere on the table.

I'm pretty sure that Populus gather the raw data for Lord Ashcroft.

When I met him before Christmas Lord A said that he uses a range of phone pollsters to carry out his fieldwork. Given his constituency polling alone since last May has an overall sample of 150k then it is hard to see how any one firm can meet his demands .

I know his recent Brighton Pavillion poll was carried out at the ICM Bedford polling centre.

Mike, do you know the timeline on the Lord A Scottish constituency polling ?

isam

If Labour do sue Jane Collins re Rotherham it would be like UKIP having a free election leaflet in every local newspaper going further than they would have done had they paid for their own material in the lead up to the election

Sean_F

If the Conservatives finished on 324, they could probably govern well enough. Removing 5 Sinn Fein MPs and the Speaker would give them an effective majority of 2. Suppose you had 8 DUP, 5 UKIP, and Sylvia Hermon, they could probably get their budgets through.

rcs1000

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

LOL!

I stick with my forecast of:

Greens 31%
UKIP 29%
SNP 24%
Others nowhere

Repeat request from earlier today.

Any value in the Hampstead constituency market ?

No.

The Tories do not have the excellent Chris Philip, so I would expect them to fall back.
The LibDem candidate is outstanding, but they won't buck their downward fall. They won't lose two-thirds of their vote, as they will in the rest of the country, but they'll lose a lot of votes to Labour.
So, I predict a fairly comfortable Labour hold.

stodge

For what little it's worth, the "campaign" so far has been the equivalent of baseline tennis. At some point, either Cameron or Miliband is going to have to go to the net to try to force the winner. That won't be for some time so we have the negative knockback of comments, claims, polls, counter-claims, tweets, retweets and the rest which will rapidly bore most of the British public (if it hasn't done so already).

The other thought I have is that all the messages are about why you should NOT vote for other parties - the winning team might just be the one which comes up with a solid optimistic reason why people should vote FOR them.

isam

Scott_P said:

@DanHannanMEP: Miliband tries to weaponise the Paris atrocity by claiming - absurdly, tastelessly - that Euroscepticism costs lives. http://t.co/mLIbw65D34

Yeah free movement of terrorists must make it a lot easier to deal with

TheKingofLangley

Labour losing support to UKIP appears to be the main difference between the two polls?

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

If the Conservatives finished on 324, they could probably govern well enough. Removing 5 Sinn Fein MPs and the Speaker would give them an effective majority of 2. Suppose you had 8 DUP, 5 UKIP, and Sylvia Hermon, they could probably get their budgets through.

Doesn't Lady Sylvia Hermon usually vote with Labour? She left the UUP because it linked up with the Conservatives.

Flightpath

Scott_P said:

@DanHannanMEP: Miliband tries to weaponise the Paris atrocity by claiming - absurdly, tastelessly - that Euroscepticism costs lives. http://t.co/mLIbw65D34

It does not matter if Miliband said it or not (I think everyone knows he did - but no matter) - the fact is he has given the tories a slogan they would never have thought of themselves and probably could never have used if they had. The fact that the quite emotive word came from Miliband himself makes it a very potent ... er, weapon.

MikeSmithson

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

Is it really done by Populus, doesn't say so anywhere on the table.

I'm pretty sure that Populus gather the raw data for Lord Ashcroft.

When I met him before Christmas Lord A said that he uses a range of phone pollsters to carry out his fieldwork. Given his constituency polling alone since last May has an overall sample of 150k then it is hard to see how any one firm can meet his demands .

I know his recent Brighton Pavillion poll was carried out at the ICM Bedford polling centre.

Mike, do you know the timeline on the Lord A Scottish constituency polling ?

Certainly before May 8th

Sean_F

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

Is it really done by Populus, doesn't say so anywhere on the table.

I'm pretty sure that Populus gather the raw data for Lord Ashcroft.

When I met him before Christmas Lord A said that he uses a range of phone pollsters to carry out his fieldwork. Given his constituency polling alone since last May has an overall sample of 150k then it is hard to see how any one firm can meet his demands .

I know his recent Brighton Pavillion poll was carried out at the ICM Bedford polling centre.

Okay, thanks.

MarkSenior

taffys said:

ories 8 point lead in England - 37-29.

It'll be interesting to see if this puts some 'poll pressure' on Ed Miliband and his team.

Why should it when Populus has Labour ahead by 5% in England

SouthamObserver

rcs1000 said:

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

LOL!

I stick with my forecast of:

Greens 31%
UKIP 29%
SNP 24%
Others nowhere

Repeat request from earlier today.

Any value in the Hampstead constituency market ?

No.

The Tories do not have the excellent Chris Philip, so I would expect them to fall back.
The LibDem candidate is outstanding, but they won't buck their downward fall. They won't lose two-thirds of their vote, as they will in the rest of the country, but they'll lose a lot of votes to Labour.
So, I predict a fairly comfortable Labour hold.

If there is a Green surge then Hampstead and Highgate is one of the places where it is likely to register. But I reckon you are right.

Socrates

bondegezou said:

Socrates said:

@bondegezou

Can you find one source mentioning Aisha as being older than nine at the age of consumation from before the 20th Century?

Yes. Ibn Hisham, writing in the early 9th century, thought she was probably ten at consummation. Ibn Khallikan in the 13th century and Ibn Sa'd al-Baghdadi also in the early 9th century said she was 12 at consummation.

And none of those and none of the sources saying she was 9 constitute reliable historical sources. They are all religious writers working with scripture. They do not produce historical fact. You cannot one day rail against scriptural literalism and then, the next, argue something is historical fact based purely on scriptural sources.

A modern, rational view is to say we don't know what age Aisha was (she might have been that young, she might not). Most Western historians dismiss most of the hadith as being unreliable and written much later than tradition claims.

Here's a quote from another hadith:

SNIP

So, do you believe that Muhammed miraculously re-filled the water bags? Or do you only believe hadith that suit your political arguments? Aisha's age at consummation is not historical fact. It's like Mary being a virgin in the New Testament. It is a matter of religion.

I believe the hadith when they are (a) the closest historical record to the event and (b) are not making scientifically ridiculous claims. Herodotus obviously made some crazy claims in his works, but for the plausible claims, I would still believe it over work written several centuries later.

Could you please link me to your sources for Hisham, Khalikan and al-Baghdadi? I'm genuinely interested.

JackW

rcs1000 said:

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

And, both polls were conducted by Populus, albeit one by 'phone and one online, and with different weightings.

LOL!

I stick with my forecast of:

Greens 31%
UKIP 29%
SNP 24%
Others nowhere

Repeat request from earlier today.

Any value in the Hampstead constituency market ?

No.

The Tories do not have the excellent Chris Philip, so I would expect them to fall back.
The LibDem candidate is outstanding, but they won't buck their downward fall. They won't lose two-thirds of their vote, as they will in the rest of the country, but they'll lose a lot of votes to Labour.
So, I predict a fairly comfortable Labour hold.

Thank you.

I wondered whether Maajid Nawas's recent high media profile might have provided some scope?