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Meanwhile in Canada – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,428

    a

    Under current law, state nurseries (which exist, to a certain degree) have to follow exactly the same rules on staffing.

    The idea that this will be substantially cheaper is simply incorrect. Acquiring/building facilities will create borrowing which will take decades to pay off.

    The issues are

    1) Child/carer ratios.
    2) The state pays or not.
    Its the ratios. The nursery that my son goes to (handily at the Uni) could take another 12-16 children a day for minimal extra cost (the food, basically) if the ratio was relaxed by just one extra child per carer.

    Stroke of a pen in government could do that today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    We spent a fortune helping not just Russia, but all the ex-Soviet states, if they accepted that help.

    The myth that we did nothing or little is just that - a myth.

    Russia had a massive opportunity from the mid-nineties onwards. It chose to squander that opportunity. That was Putin's choice.
    I'm not pushing that myth or blaming the West. I know efforts were made, political and financial.

    However it didn't work. The project was rushed and corrupted. A small number of people, inside and outside Russia, profited massively at the expense of a population already scarred by communism.

    So I think, clock back, we and they could and should have done better. I don't buy the idea there's something in the Russian 'waters' that makes it compulsory for them to be an impoverished autocracy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439
    https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1893952661843501513

    NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:

    The gender gap continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung very sharply left.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948

    How many of these American candy stores are legit?

    One has popped up in my town in recent weeks and I've never seen a single person in it.

    If they're not legit, then why don't the authorities do something about it?

    It's to do with dodging business rates/NDR, according to my Albanian taxi driver. The tenant folds and the council can't collect any revenue from them, and the property owner avoids the tax they'd pay on an empty shop.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,063
    10 weeks. 40% = a month of porridge.
  • HYUFD said:

    Amesbury gets 10 week jail sentence, so as it is less than a year he can still technically remain an MP for now but a recall petition is likely as he received a custodial sentence

    The recall petition would be pretty sure to pass so depends if he does the decent thing and resigns
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    HYUFD said:

    Amesbury gets 10 week jail sentence

    Good.

    What he did was out of order, especially as the guy posed no threat at the time and had his hands in his pockets.
  • novanova Posts: 747
    edited February 24

    How many of these American candy stores are legit?

    One has popped up in my town in recent weeks and I've never seen a single person in it.

    If they're not legit*, then why don't the authorities do something about it?

    I read an article a couple of years ago about the ones on Oxford Street in London. The difficulty was proving they weren't legit, when they often only stayed open for a few months.

    The people working there didn't know who owned them, and the laws weren't in place to take quick action. Trading Standards could only guess they were dodgy, so have to jump through hoops to get to the people running them, and by the time they did, the money would have gone through the shop, and it would be closed, or ownership changed.

    I'd have thought there was some kind of money laundering legislation that allowed a quicker response, but it didn't appear to be the case (or it wasn't a priority).

    *and of course, just because a shop doesn't do well, doesn't mean it's not a legitimate attempt to start a business.
  • How many of these American candy stores are legit?

    One has popped up in my town in recent weeks and I've never seen a single person in it.

    If they're not legit, then why don't the authorities do something about it?

    Probably not many.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/oxford-street-candy-shop-investigation-b1082733.html

    Two big problems.

    Landlords prefer bottom-feeders like this to a totally empty shop.

    The relevant authorities are local councils, and they now only exist to provide social services.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,915
    nico67 said:

    The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
    It can be done at a national level to (a) include us and (b) avoid vetoes. slow walking etc by the recalcitrant within the EU. The problem is that Germany, the biggest single contributor, doesn't have a government as of today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,495
    edited February 24

    The recall petition would be pretty sure to pass so depends if he does the decent thing and resigns
    Reform will certainly hope so, Reform were second to Labour in his Runcorn seat last year and got 18% of the vote ie more than they did nationally. So a probable by election there now will likely be heavily targeted by Farage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001455
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145

    Probably not many.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/oxford-street-candy-shop-investigation-b1082733.html

    Two big problems.

    Landlords prefer bottom-feeders like this to a totally empty shop.

    The relevant authorities are local councils, and they now only exist to provide social services.
    Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795

    Its the ratios. The nursery that my son goes to (handily at the Uni) could take another 12-16 children a day for minimal extra cost (the food, basically) if the ratio was relaxed by just one extra child per carer.

    Stroke of a pen in government could do that today.
    It's been tried a couple of times. The most serious attempt was, IIRC, under the Coalition. Which was beaten back with cries of "They want to kill all the toddlers!"

    The suggestion, then, was to align the ratios with that well known hell hole of social provision, Sweden.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,098
    kinabalu said:

    I'm not pushing that myth or blaming the West. I know efforts were made, political and financial.

    However it didn't work. The project was rushed and corrupted. A small number of people, inside and outside Russia, profited massively at the expense of a population already scarred by communism.

    So I think, clock back, we and they could and should have done better. I don't buy the idea there's something in the Russian 'waters' that makes it compulsory for them to be an impoverished autocracy.
    IMV there were bad actors, mainly within Russia, who would have sought to take advantage of whatever we did.

    "I don't buy the idea there's something in the Russian 'waters' that makes it compulsory for them to be an impoverished autocracy."

    That's been their state for hundreds of years. Despite their great human and natural resources.
  • HYUFD said:

    Reform will certainly hope so, Reform were second to Labour in his Runcorn seat last year and got 18% of the vote ie more than they did nationally. So a probable by election there now will likely be heavily targeted by Farage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001455
    The Electoral Calculus prediction based on current polls would be Lab 37%, Ref 30%, Con 15%, LD 10%, Green 9% so Ref need to throw the kitchen sink at it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,495
    edited February 24

    The Electoral Calculus prediction based on current polls would be Lab 37%, Ref 30%, Con 15%, LD 10%, Green 9% so Ref need to throw the kitchen sink at it
    With some Tory tactical votes to beat Labour Reform could win it
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    TimS said:

    Does it discuss the potential impact on house prices?
    I have a theory that a major deterrent to attack on this country is the threat of the CGT bill, if someone nukes all the places like Slough.

    "You turned the place into a wasteland of radioactive zombies. So you are responsible for a 250% increase in property values."
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145

    I have a theory that a major deterrent to attack on this country is the threat of the CGT bill, if someone nukes all the places like Slough.

    "You turned the place into a wasteland of radioactive zombies. So you are responsible for a 250% increase in property values."
    Drop the bomb on Wolverhampton, I doubt people would notice much difference.
  • novanova Posts: 747
    Taz said:

    Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
    There are a lot of Turkish Barbers that will be hugely busy, and they provide a great service.

    They're also a large part of Turkish culture, and when I lived in London, Turkish female friends would consider it a night out to go and get their hair done. For the men, the barber's seemed to be similar to the typical African-American barbers you see on TV, where people will go regularly, and hang out. Probably makes a lot more sense in a culture where so many people don't drink alcohol.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,063
    Taz said:

    Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
    There's a legit one in Worksop - been going since 2017: https://shorturl.at/UT49s
  • I’m always an advocate of Global Thermonuclear War.
    "Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess???"
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    nova said:

    There are a lot of Turkish Barbers that will be hugely busy, and they provide a great service.

    They're also a large part of Turkish culture, and when I lived in London, Turkish female friends would consider it a night out to go and get their hair done. For the men, the barber's seemed to be similar to the typical African-American barbers you see on TV, where people will go regularly, and hang out. Probably makes a lot more sense in a culture where so many people don't drink alcohol.
    And there are a lot that aren't.

    A fair few of the ones local to me are staffed by Albanians and rarely ever seem busy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,675
    edited February 24

    I have a theory that a major deterrent to attack on this country is the threat of the CGT bill, if someone nukes all the places like Slough.

    "You turned the place into a wasteland of radioactive zombies. So you are responsible for a 250% increase in property values."
    Think of the IHT liabilities on agricultural property after all those forced successions too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439
    Why the AfD probably won the gay vote:

    https://x.com/lukasdegutis/status/1893971556054786361
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Pulpstar said:

    There's a legit one in Worksop - been going since 2017: https://shorturl.at/UT49s
    Just like American Sweet Stores (Candy FFS !!!) I am sure some are legit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,764

    The Daily Mail seems to have taken it upon themselves to cheer us all up by having a huge in depth article about how we’ll all die in a nuclear attack.

    The Rant spreading joy and happiness as usual... 😂
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,583

    I would be very interested to see why/how the cost of borrowing was handled like this.

    The only fig leaf I can think of is -
    “Borrowing costs are absurdly low. If they vaguely return to normal in the next year.. we should allow for that”.

    But a decade plus of that is an enormous fuckup.
    Basically it was an enormous fuck up

    Essentially they started from the borrowing costs in the last five year period and then reviewed based on their external view of the market to come up with an initial perspective. They then negotiated this with the utilities.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,063
    Taz said:

    Just like American Sweet Stores (Candy FFS !!!) I am sure some are legit.
    Must annoy the legit stores no end that (Along with barbers and nail bars) money laundering shop of choice seems to involve sweets from the States as a facade.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795

    Basically it was an enormous fuck up

    Essentially they started from the borrowing costs in the last five year period and then reviewed based on their external view of the market to come up with an initial perspective. They then negotiated this with the utilities.
    When you say "negotiated", it reminds me of PJ O'Rourke likening such transactions to doing real estate deals with your dog.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,098
    nova said:

    There are a lot of Turkish Barbers that will be hugely busy, and they provide a great service.

    They're also a large part of Turkish culture, and when I lived in London, Turkish female friends would consider it a night out to go and get their hair done. For the men, the barber's seemed to be similar to the typical African-American barbers you see on TV, where people will go regularly, and hang out. Probably makes a lot more sense in a culture where so many people don't drink alcohol.
    We would not cut our son's hair for a while before he goes to Turkey, as my F-i-L loved taking him to his barber's to see his friends. AIUI it is much more of a cultural thing over there than it is here.

    My F-i-L sadly died in December, but Mrs J took my son over there last week and they went back to the same barbers, where they met up again with some of my F-i-L's friends.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,583
    nico67 said:

    A state visit legitimizes Trump . And what if he becomes even more of a Putin arselicker before that .
    You cancel it. It’s something he wants that is in the near future but he has to behave to get it.

    And - looking for a silver lining here - Charles’s cancer means that you can cancel it because of the King’s health if you need to.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,691

    We would not cut our son's hair for a while before he goes to Turkey, as my F-i-L loved taking him to his barber's to see his friends. AIUI it is much more of a cultural thing over there than it is here.

    My F-i-L sadly died in December, but Mrs J took my son over there last week and they went back to the same barbers, where they met up again with some of my F-i-L's friends.
    Two Middle Eastern barbers have recently opened in my home sub-suburb - Crown Barbers and Luxury Barbers. They are both garish as fuck and there is never a soul in either.

    Vape shops are equally dodgy. There is a side street in Cheetham Hill with at least 30 on, and no other businesses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,495

    Why the AfD probably won the gay vote:

    https://x.com/lukasdegutis/status/1893971556054786361

    Probably as the AfD is most anti militant Islam
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    GIN1138 said:

    The Rant spreading joy and happiness as usual... 😂
    Joy and happiness doesn't drive clicks or engagement or make money.

    Doom, gloom and reality TV does.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Cookie said:

    Two Middle Eastern barbers have recently opened in my home sub-suburb - Crown Barbers and Luxury Barbers. They are both garish as fuck and there is never a soul in either.

    Vape shops are equally dodgy. There is a side street in Cheetham Hill with at least 30 on, and no other businesses.
    Although in my local town we do have a Vape shop that doubles up as a craft beer bar.

    That one seems okay. The landlord seems a nice guy albeit a Shitcoin fanatic.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,559
    Cookie said:

    Two Middle Eastern barbers have recently opened in my home sub-suburb - Crown Barbers and Luxury Barbers. They are both garish as fuck and there is never a soul in either.

    Vape shops are equally dodgy. There is a side street in Cheetham Hill with at least 30 on, and no other businesses.
    I'll bet they're all banking thousands every day in used £20s, though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    HYUFD said:

    With some Tory tactical votes to beat Labour Reform could win it
    I think with this seat Reform simply have to win if they want to be a credible force in British Politics rather than shouting from the sidelines.

    If they fail then I would think it highly likely that we hit peak Reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,495
    Taz said:

    I think with this seat Reform simply have to win if they want to be a credible force in British Politics rather than shouting from the sidelines.

    If they fail then I would think it highly likely that we hit peak Reform.
    Indeed, certainly if they want to be getting the kind of swing they need to win most seats or a majority
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Ex Reform UK Leader in Wales in a little bit of legal trouble.

    Russia is not a problem for Reform at the moment.

    It could become one

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ex-reform-uk-leader-in-wales-in-court-over-alleged-favourable-russia-statements/ar-AA1zFt0h?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=13cf0b6214554ecae52d3539590d5882&ei=18
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,268
    Taz said:
    Reform’s problem is that after the post-Ukraine settlement there will be a lot of movement in Europe around common security policy. Reform will have to either make the argument that this policy isn’t required and the UK should stay in splendid isolation (their Brexit tendencies), or they will have to justify the increased defence spending etc that they have always supported Trump in calling for, hence shooting their fox somewhat.

    I suspect Farage will find it hard to resist the urge to wave his magic wand and suggest closer ties and defence co-operation with the US and a FTA with Trump will magically solve all this and we shouldn’t be dealing with the nasty Europeans, but in a world that marches on, and in a Trump WH that is not going to be popular among the general public in the UK, that is going to be an increasingly difficult line to tread while still trying to build your popularity.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439
    Stonewall were getting significant funding from the US government and may now have to cut half their staff:

    https://x.com/journalismseen/status/1893788836263579841
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    This deep constitutional principle, articulated at the height of WWII, is likely at stake under the current administration.

    The "Fixed Star in Our Constitutional Constellation"
    https://www.stevevladeck.com/p/126-the-fixed-star-in-our-constitutional
    "...It seems trite but necessary to say that the First Amendment to our Constitution was designed to avoid these ends by avoiding these beginnings. There is no mysticism in the American concept of the State or of the nature or origin of its authority. We set up government by consent of the governed, and the Bill of Rights denies those in power any legal opportunity to coerce that consent. Authority here is to be controlled by public opinion, not public opinion by authority.

    ...freedom to differ is not limited to things that do not matter much. That would be a mere shadow of freedom. The test of its substance is the right to differ as to things that touch the heart of the existing order.

    If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein. If there are any circumstances which permit an exception, they do not now occur to us."

    Barnette was written in the context of compelling speech by schoolchildren, but its broader point—written at a time in which the American public was becoming increasingly aware of the terrible atrocities that the Nazis were committing in the name of national unity—was as powerful as Jackson’s prose was elegant. Ideological pluralism isn’t just a feature of our culture; it is a constitutionally protected reality. And enforced orthodoxy, whether in the name of national unity, fealty to a particular religion, or obeisance to a specific political leader, is a corruption of our most fundamental constitutional ideals. It’s why, among lots of other things, federal employees and officers take an oath to support the Constitution, not the President.

    Jackson, who would go on to serve as the lead U.S. prosecutor at the International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg, was exactly right in Barnette. We ignore him at our peril...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,691
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, certainly if they want to be getting the kind of swing they need to win most seats or a majority
    10 weeks seems a lot for a minor ruckus, based on the in-depth knowledge of sentencing I have gleaned from Police Interceptors. Can't help feeling a little sorry for him there - I don't know for sure but I strongly suspect he was goaded into what he did. And now his career is over.

    Anyway, I'd say Reform have been chomping at the bit for a seat *like* this - but probably not *this* seat. The Labour bit is too Scouse, the Tory bit too Cheshire. Neither, I would say, are subect to much more squeezing.

    And immigration, where Reform score well, has fallen down the agenda; and Ukraine, where they score badly, has risen up it. Of course, we don't yet have a date for a BE, so that may have flipped again by the time the election comes around.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,473
    HYUFD said:

    With some Tory tactical votes to beat Labour Reform could win it
    Does your knowledge of the Conservative Party suggest that there would be widespread tactical voting for Reform in order to defeat Labour? Asking for a betting account.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,535
    Taz said:
    I was not aware that it is illegal to accept payment for making an otherwise perfectly legal statement. You learn something every day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,495
    edited February 24
    Cookie said:

    10 weeks seems a lot for a minor ruckus, based on the in-depth knowledge of sentencing I have gleaned from Police Interceptors. Can't help feeling a little sorry for him there - I don't know for sure but I strongly suspect he was goaded into what he did. And now his career is over.

    Anyway, I'd say Reform have been chomping at the bit for a seat *like* this - but probably not *this* seat. The Labour bit is too Scouse, the Tory bit too Cheshire. Neither, I would say, are subect to much more squeezing.

    And immigration, where Reform score well, has fallen down the agenda; and Ukraine, where they score badly, has risen up it. Of course, we don't yet have a date for a BE, so that may have flipped again by the time the election comes around.
    Though given by election swings tend to be even bigger than nationally and the LDs, by election protest specialists, were not even in the top 4 in Runcorn at the GE Reform will hope to squeeze the protest vote to beat Labour
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,675

    I was not aware that it is illegal to accept payment for making an otherwise perfectly legal statement. You learn something every day.
    That’s essentially cash for questions isn’t it? The same thing that brought down Neil Hamilton.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,930
    edited February 24

    How many of these American candy stores are legit?

    One has popped up in my town in recent weeks and I've never seen a single person in it.

    If they're not legit, then why don't the authorities do something about it?

    From anecdotage from my own town centre, the Sunak ministry told the local councils to get companies in shops by any means necessary, and they did. It was, along with the opening of lots of new minor railway stations, one of the successes of his regime. But as me, thee, and the dogs in the street know, a lot of them are hooky and/or money laundering. Given the choice is that or the death of the town centre, I imagine nobody is checking too closely.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 879
    Taz said:
    Taken a long while for that to come to court!! Offences committed pre-2020, possibly as far back as 2014, and initially arrested in 2021. It should be noted that he'd have been an MEP for the Farage-led party at the time of the alleged offences, whatever it was called at the time, so dissembling about whether he is/was a supporter or member of Reform is irrelevant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,115
    Taz said:

    I think with this seat Reform simply have to win if they want to be a credible force in British Politics rather than shouting from the sidelines.

    If they fail then I would think it highly likely that we hit peak Reform.
    Disagree. This is not a particularly good area for Reform because of the Merseyside influence. Almost anywhere near the east coast of England would be far better for them. So it wouldn't be terrible for them if they didn't win.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,930

    I’m always an advocate of Global Thermonuclear War.
    Inevitably...

    Girl in a jacket
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Andy_JS said:

    Disagree. This is not a particularly good area for Reform because of the Merseyside influence. Almost anywhere near the east coast of England would be far better for them. So it wouldn't be terrible for them if they didn't win.
    I do not disagree that there are far better places for them to target, certainly where you say is prime Reform territory. The seat I live in is one too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    Eabhal said:

    It's to do with dodging business rates/NDR, according to my Albanian taxi driver. The tenant folds and the council can't collect any revenue from them, and the property owner avoids the tax they'd pay on an empty shop.
    So why don't authorities immediately swoop and close them down when they open up?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,977

    So why don't authorities immediately swoop and close them down when they open up?
    Maybe they’re all working from home.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    nova said:

    I read an article a couple of years ago about the ones on Oxford Street in London. The difficulty was proving they weren't legit, when they often only stayed open for a few months.

    The people working there didn't know who owned them, and the laws weren't in place to take quick action. Trading Standards could only guess they were dodgy, so have to jump through hoops to get to the people running them, and by the time they did, the money would have gone through the shop, and it would be closed, or ownership changed.

    I'd have thought there was some kind of money laundering legislation that allowed a quicker response, but it didn't appear to be the case (or it wasn't a priority).

    *and of course, just because a shop doesn't do well, doesn't mean it's not a legitimate attempt to start a business.
    Change the law.

    This seems to be one of those scams where everyone knows what's going on but no-one can do anything due to due process.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    edited February 24

    I was not aware that it is illegal to accept payment for making an otherwise perfectly legal statement. You learn something every day.
    The issue isn't with the statements it's that someone with a public duty receives an advantage from someone else that could influence the way they carry out their duties. He might have made the same pro Russia statements without being bribed. But the fact of accepting the money is enough for this to be an offence under the 2010 Bribery Act. Someone in his position should be well aware of this.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin . I hope to see that on campaign literature in the upcoming by-election .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    Taz said:

    Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
    Our town has five Turkish Barbers, and a car wash at the station.

    Also, I just popped into the Mediterranean Steakhouse and had a minute steak for lunch: they were all Albanian and speaking Albanian to each other. I was the only one in there.

    Didn't tell them this, obviously, but the first thought that crossed my mind walking out: have I just directly financed organised crime?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933

    Our town has five Turkish Barbers, and a car wash at the station.

    Also, I just popped into the Mediterranean Steakhouse and had a minute steak for lunch: they were all Albanian and speaking Albanian to each other. I was the only one in there.

    Didn't tell them this, obviously, but the first thought that crossed my mind walking out: have I just directly financed organised crime?
    More importantly was the minute steak good ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,115
    Taz said:

    Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
    3 or 4 Turkish barbers have opened in a medium-sized town in my area recently. Seems odd because you'd think one might open and then perhaps another one 5 years later, not so many in a short time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278

    Indeed. This is fascism.
    What’s the difference between this and “l’etat, c’est moi” or indeed Fauci’s “I am the SCOIENCE”
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    A quid pro quo: there a number of white British men of working age (30s to 50s) walking round in hoodies and trainers who have terrible teeth and vocabulary and stink of fags, buying junk with cash at offlicences and Iceland.

    Today, is like a microcosm of Britain in a small provincial town.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795

    I was not aware that it is illegal to accept payment for making an otherwise perfectly legal statement. You learn something every day.
    Bribery is bribery. Even if the thing you do in return for the bribery is unexceptional. Or even something you might have done anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    viewcode said:

    From anecdotage from my own town centre, the Sunak ministry told the local councils to get companies in shops by any means necessary, and they did. It was, along with the opening of lots of new minor railway stations, one of the successes of his regime. But as me, thee, and the dogs in the street know, a lot of them are hooky and/or money laundering. Given the choice is that or the death of the town centre, I imagine nobody is checking too closely.
    I get that but I'd prefer a residential conversion to a fake shop and money laundering outfit, I think.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    Taz said:

    Just like American Sweet Stores (Candy FFS !!!) I am sure some are legit.
    Who here ever buys American candy?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,869
    If the Tories have any sense (which, in itself, is a question), they'll hit any by election with everything to stop Reform.
    They'd prefer a Labour hold.
    Too Scouse and too Cheshire.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    edited February 24

    No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.

    As a Leaver I have to agree with this

    Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted

    We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview

    That’s not a bad deal for both sides

    It’s time to think BIGLY
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    nico67 said:

    More importantly was the minute steak good ?
    It was.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    viewcode said:

    Inevitably...

    Girl in a jacket
    The inevitable consequence of dabbling in bridge. No Trumps notwithstanding.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,383
    edited February 24
    HYUFD said:

    With some Tory tactical votes to beat Labour Reform could win it
    Just so I’m clear - if you were knocking on doors in a future Runcorn and Helmsby by election, would you be suggesting to Conservative inclined voters they should vote Reform tactically to defeat Labour?

    Which is more important - Labour losing or Reform winning?

    I find this attitude curious at a time when in both Germany and Austria conservative parties are going into coalition with social democratic parties to keep out populist parties.

    Were Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives to be in a position to support either a minority Labour Government or a minority Reform Government after the next General Election, are there any circumstances in which you would advocate supporting a minority Labour administration?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145

    Who here ever buys American candy?
    My local Sainsburys sells them too.

    My mate's wife is from Colorado, she is a buyer.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,428

    Our town has five Turkish Barbers, and a car wash at the station.

    Also, I just popped into the Mediterranean Steakhouse and had a minute steak for lunch: they were all Albanian and speaking Albanian to each other. I was the only one in there.

    Didn't tell them this, obviously, but the first thought that crossed my mind walking out: have I just directly financed organised crime?
    My first thought would have been "why is my steak so small?"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    nico67 said:

    More importantly was the minute steak good ?
    Too small.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1894011292387574094

    EXCLUSIVE:

    The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg

    US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows

    US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine

    US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”

    Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”

    Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798

    Bribery is bribery. Even if the thing you do in return for the bribery is unexceptional. Or even something you might have done anyway.
    Indeed. Not all bribery is Robert Jenrick style: give me a few thousand and I'll make sure you get your planning certs and avoid millions of tax. Other people have a bit more sophistication.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333

    The recall petition would be pretty sure to pass so depends if he does the decent thing and resigns
    He's going to appeal the sentence. So it's possible that he wins and gets a sentence light enough not to trigger a petition... possible, but not very likely. However, am I right in thinking that an appeal stops the petition going forward while it's being considered?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,818
    WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1894011292387574094

    EXCLUSIVE:

    The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg

    US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows

    US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine

    US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”

    Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”

    Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US

    If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    algarkirk said:

    WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?

    Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    Andy_JS said:

    3 or 4 Turkish barbers have opened in a medium-sized town in my area recently. Seems odd because you'd think one might open and then perhaps another one 5 years later, not so many in a short time.
    The weird thing is, this is a pan European phenomenon

    Probably “worse” in the UK but I’ve also seen it in Germany France and Spain - “Turkish” barbers with no customers

    Same goes for American candy stores, seen them in France, Italy and Spain. Empty

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    edited February 24
    Leon said:

    If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
    As that noted PB wit and satirist put it not so long ago (gaining precisely one "like" in the process):

    "Even people as dumb as @kamski can work out your and other PB posters' bleatings [about how dweadful that nasty Donald is] are simply the wailings of sulky student leftists being told that the Barclays branch in the Student Union will remain open."

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5129501#Comment_5129501
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,818

    He's going to appeal the sentence. So it's possible that he wins and gets a sentence light enough not to trigger a petition... possible, but not very likely. However, am I right in thinking that an appeal stops the petition going forward while it's being considered?
    Yes. (See the Recall Act sections 1-4.)

    If he succeeds only to the extent of suspending the sentence, that does not help him (Section 2).

    FWIW I think the sentence was a bit on the high side given the provocation.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,340

    Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
    The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,535

    Bribery is bribery. Even if the thing you do in return for the bribery is unexceptional. Or even something you might have done anyway.
    I looked up the Bribery Act 2010, apparently it is illegal to accept money for carrying out some duty in an inappropriate way. I presume as he was an MEP that would extend to making public statements. Not sure if that would extend to Joe Public
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933
    Leon said:

    If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
    The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,268
    edited February 24

    Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
    Yes. It’s close to a “must win”, but I think if they get within 1-2k votes that will make them happy enough as it will add credence to the surge narrative. They should really be challenging for the seat though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    nico67 said:

    A state visit legitimizes Trump . And what if he becomes even more of a Putin arselicker before that .
    Tough tits. We should have considered the possibility that the American's might just elect someone that we might find unseemly before we decided it was a whizzbang idea to become a vassal state.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,739

    My first thought would have been "why is my steak so small?"
    Or, why do I have to eat it so quickly?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    I mean, Amesbury.

    Yes he should be jailed because an MP can't be going around banging out their constituents. Then again, he said words to the effect of "that's the last time you will threaten [an MP]."

    So maybe he was pre-empting/worrying about an Amess-type event. Dodgy lot up there in Cheshire or wherever it was.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    nico67 said:

    The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
    Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous

    But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    Leon said:

    The weird thing is, this is a pan European phenomenon

    Probably “worse” in the UK but I’ve also seen it in Germany France and Spain - “Turkish” barbers with no customers

    Same goes for American candy stores, seen them in France, Italy and Spain. Empty

    There's a whole international network of shady shit that goes on that we're all blind to.
  • Leon said:

    As a Leaver I have to agree with this

    Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted

    We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview

    That’s not a bad deal for both sides

    It’s time to think BIGLY
    How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.

    If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    eek said:

    We are hearing completely different stories from the 2 sides.

    Personally were I Ukrainian I wouldn’t trust Trump as far as I could throw him.
    Which would be the right view to take of any other sovereign state. People seem to forget the whole interests not friends thing when they talk about in particular the US.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491
    TOPPING said:

    As that noted PB wit and satirist put it not so long ago (gaining precisely one "like" in the process):

    "Even people as dumb as @kamski can work out your and other PB posters' bleatings [about how dweadful that nasty Donald is] are simply the wailings of sulky student leftists being told that the Barclays branch in the Student Union will remain open."

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5129501#Comment_5129501
    You are showing your age there - nowadays the only banking related item will be a cashpoint if the student union has rented space to Tesco / one stop or the Co-op
  • Leon said:

    If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
    The Putin man-love is strong with this one...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    eek said:

    You are showing your age there - nowadays the only banking related item will be a cashpoint if the student union has rented space to Tesco / one stop or the Co-op
    My point was, given the age demographic on PB, and in particular the posters this was aimed at, in their minds they are still back in the day protesting against Barclays.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.

    If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
    Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439
    edited February 24

    How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.

    If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
    They make up the countries that matter so if they all agree to replace the ECHR with something different then it would happen.
This discussion has been closed.