The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
However leaving it would place the UK in a small group of none ECHR countries alongside Russia and Belarus so it would probably have significant impacts on our relationship with EU and other European countries
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
Yes. It’s close to a “must win”, but I think if they get within 1-2k votes that will make them happy enough as it will add credence to the surge narrative. They should really be challenging for the seat though.
If the Fukkers don't win this then we have passed peak Fukker. Candidates are always a problem for them though. They type of person attracted to the Fukker prospectus is likely to be a fucking idiot, that's a given. However, on top of that they seem to choose fucking idiots who have spent the last ten years posting on Facebook about chemtrails and other malevolent nonsense providing the opposition with much ammunition.
Yes he should be jailed because an MP can't be going around banging out their constituents. Then again, he said words to the effect of "that's the last time you will threaten [an MP]."
So maybe he was pre-empting/worrying about an Amess-type event. Dodgy lot up there in Cheshire or wherever it was.
That bit of his speech seemed a bit tacked on because the red mist was clearing and he realised he'd potentially ended his career.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
As that noted PB wit and satirist put it not so long ago (gaining precisely one "like" in the process):
"Even people as dumb as @kamski can work out your and other PB posters' bleatings [about how dweadful that nasty Donald is] are simply the wailings of sulky student leftists being told that the Barclays branch in the Student Union will remain open."
You are showing your age there - nowadays the only banking related item will be a cashpoint if the student union has rented space to Tesco / one stop or the Co-op
My point was, given the age demographic on PB, and in particular the posters this was aimed at, in their minds they are still back in the day protesting against Barclays.
Where I went Barclays was in a building owned by the university - I don’t think there was any bank in the students union itself
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
However leaving it would place the UK in a small group of none ECHR countries alongside Russia and Belarus so it would probably have significant impacts on our relationship with EU and other European countries
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
If memory serves, David Cameron advocated for leaving the ECHR (whilst in the EU). It might possibly even have been in the manifesto in the GE before the coalition. That spared Cameron a lot of blushes reneging on things he didn't really want to do.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
Actually no. Whilst we were in the EU membership of the ECHR was a treaty obligation for all EU members. Once we left it stopped being so.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
This is something that could be interpreted many ways. Be interesting to see what comes of it and also if we start getting cheap Russian gas into Europe again.
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Those who wish to leave the ECHR largely want to do so in order to escape the asylum obligations defined after WW2 and which are no longer fit for purpose.
There’s probably a workaround which avoids leaving the ECHR outright.
As for the ECJ, any involvement in the single market must require a judicial body to enforce breaches of those arrangements. The EFTA court, if I understand correctly, looks largely to the ECJ for case law.
Again, it is probably more useful to revise rather than reject the ECJ. Cameron’s negotiation for example seemed to secure an opt-out that the ECJ should not rule in favour of “ever-closer union”.
This moment in time is ripe for British statecraft, but I worry that the British state has simply lost the will and capacity.
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
Yes he should be jailed because an MP can't be going around banging out their constituents. Then again, he said words to the effect of "that's the last time you will threaten [an MP]."
So maybe he was pre-empting/worrying about an Amess-type event. Dodgy lot up there in Cheshire or wherever it was.
That bit of his speech seemed a bit tacked on because the red mist was clearing and he realised he'd potentially ended his career.
Ah well I'd have to look at it again - interesting if so.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
As that noted PB wit and satirist put it not so long ago (gaining precisely one "like" in the process):
"Even people as dumb as @kamski can work out your and other PB posters' bleatings [about how dweadful that nasty Donald is] are simply the wailings of sulky student leftists being told that the Barclays branch in the Student Union will remain open."
You are showing your age there - nowadays the only banking related item will be a cashpoint if the student union has rented space to Tesco / one stop or the Co-op
My point was, given the age demographic on PB, and in particular the posters this was aimed at, in their minds they are still back in the day protesting against Barclays.
Where I went Barclays was in a building owned by the university - I don’t think there was any bank in the students union itself
I mean I can do the samba if you do the bossa nova once we're up on the pin.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
Alternatively the 10% of PB who temporarily went into bat for Putin will look like a bunch of whoppers
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
Actually no. Whilst we were in the EU membership of the ECHR was a treaty obligation for all EU members. Once we left it stopped being so.
We could have left the ECHR when we were in the EU. If we had deemed that we wanted to leave it, and all that that entailed, including leaving or being ejected from the EU (can't see the exact wording of the obligation but I'll take your word for it), then we could have done so.
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
If memory serves, David Cameron advocated for leaving the ECHR (whilst in the EU). It might possibly even have been in the manifesto in the GE before the coalition. That spared Cameron a lot of blushes reneging on things he didn't really want to do.
Was it not the perennial favourite (a bit like the “migration in the tens of thousands” pledge) of introducing a “British Bill of Rights”, rather than leaving the ECHR completely.
As I understand it the primary lens this should all be looked through is the Human Rights Act and not the ECHR, because the former allows domestic courts to consider the ECHR and its compatibility with domestic law.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.
Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.
But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
There's an explainer on the Amnesty International site and how the ECHR and the UK version of it, interact i.e. if you leave the ECHR there is still UK legislation. Again it's a question not necessarily the will to do it, but the support to do it along with the impact on other legislation.
Which of the 18 Articles do you think should be scrapped. How about 12 - the right to marry. Seems redundant now.
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
Very much so, but until someone stumps up for real polling (or releases what they’ve done already!) the flawed GE MRP estimate is the closest thing we have.
Those who wish to leave the ECHR largely want to do so in order to escape the asylum obligations defined after WW2 and which are no longer fit for purpose.
There’s probably a workaround which avoids leaving the ECHR outright.
As for the ECJ, any involvement in the single market must require a judicial body to enforce breaches of those arrangements. The EFTA court, if I understand correctly, looks largely to the ECJ for case law.
Again, it is probably more useful to revise rather than reject the ECJ. Cameron’s negotiation for example seemed to secure an opt-out that the ECJ should not rule in favour of “ever-closer union”.
This moment in time is ripe for British statecraft, but I worry that the British state has simply lost the will and capacity.
You're overlooking one thing. We have someone who is the very personfication of British statecraft working for us right now. Cometh the hour, cometh the Mandy!
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
Actually no. Whilst we were in the EU membership of the ECHR was a treaty obligation for all EU members. Once we left it stopped being so.
We could have left the ECHR when we were in the EU. If we had deemed that we wanted to leave it, and all that that entailed, including leaving or being ejected from the EU (can't see the exact wording of the obligation but I'll take your word for it), then we could have done so.
I was simply pointing out that membership of the EU meant we could not legally leave the ECHR.
I will avoid getting into analysing your very strange views on sovereignty yet again.
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
They make up the countries that matter so if they all agree to replace the ECHR with something different then it would happen.
Turkey, Switzerland, Ukraine, Albania, Serbia, Georgia and others might disagree on the countries that matter.
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.
1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet 2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
And in the context of Merz's comments immediately post-election, it's not obviously 'ridiculous', either.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
Provide some very interesting data for astronomers. Many of whom were quite keen that it would happen (seems a bit less likely now).
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.
1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet 2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
There’s also the issue of who will be the Labour candidate. They lost a couple of big names at the GE.
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.
1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet 2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
That is how I see it and I think it is must win for them too to maintain their momentum.
A reminder from three decades ago that there is no one zeitgeist.
...Oasis were one of the biggest bands in Britain at the time and were asked to appear on the soundtrack. Noel Gallagher said no, however, later admitting “I honestly thought it was about trainspotters. I didn't know.”.. https://x.com/ATRightMovies/status/1893609407289659505
It seems to me that turning the USA into a proper gangster oligarchy has to face the problem of the USA's remarkable addiction to free speech and media diversity/freedom.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
Landlords prefer bottom-feeders like this to a totally empty shop.
The relevant authorities are local councils, and they now only exist to provide social services.
Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
Our town has five Turkish Barbers, and a car wash at the station.
Also, I just popped into the Mediterranean Steakhouse and had a minute steak for lunch: they were all Albanian and speaking Albanian to each other. I was the only one in there.
Didn't tell them this, obviously, but the first thought that crossed my mind walking out: have I just directly financed organised crime?
My first thought would have been "why is my steak so small?"
The solution to a minute steak not filling you up is surely to order a second steak?
The world may be going to hell in a handcart but the Apple three-pin UK plug with folding pins has to be one of the 21st century's design triumphs, just saying*. It's a beautiful, clever object. Just like me really.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
Assuming an impact on the visible side - you'd see a flash, on impact. There might be a minor "asteroid shower" on Earth sometime later - just a few streaks in the sky at night.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
Landlords prefer bottom-feeders like this to a totally empty shop.
The relevant authorities are local councils, and they now only exist to provide social services.
Presumably the same applies to Turkish Barbers and Pop up Car Washes.
Our town has five Turkish Barbers, and a car wash at the station.
Also, I just popped into the Mediterranean Steakhouse and had a minute steak for lunch: they were all Albanian and speaking Albanian to each other. I was the only one in there.
Didn't tell them this, obviously, but the first thought that crossed my mind walking out: have I just directly financed organised crime?
My first thought would have been "why is my steak so small?"
The solution to a minute steak not filling you up is surely to order a second steak?
At Pope's Eye in Brook Green they only sell steaks. I was there with somewhat of a gourmand friend and he had a 6oz filet to start, followed by a 12oz sirloin.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
Not much, its potential impact is more along the lines of a couple of Castle Yankee nukes rather than a hundred teraton Chicxulub drop. It'd just add another smallish crater.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
Last posted on the morning after the US election, apparently.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Amesbury gets 10 week jail sentence, so as it is less than a year he can still technically remain an MP for now but a recall petition is likely as he received a custodial sentence
The recall petition would be pretty sure to pass so depends if he does the decent thing and resigns
Reform will certainly hope so, Reform were second to Labour in his Runcorn seat last year and got 18% of the vote ie more than they did nationally. So a probable by election there now will likely be heavily targeted by Farage
The Electoral Calculus prediction based on current polls would be Lab 37%, Ref 30%, Con 15%, LD 10%, Green 9% so Ref need to throw the kitchen sink at it
With some Tory tactical votes to beat Labour Reform could win it
I think with this seat Reform simply have to win if they want to be a credible force in British Politics rather than shouting from the sidelines.
If they fail then I would think it highly likely that we hit peak Reform.
Indeed, certainly if they want to be getting the kind of swing they need to win most seats or a majority
10 weeks seems a lot for a minor ruckus, based on the in-depth knowledge of sentencing I have gleaned from Police Interceptors. Can't help feeling a little sorry for him there - I don't know for sure but I strongly suspect he was goaded into what he did. And now his career is over.
Anyway, I'd say Reform have been chomping at the bit for a seat *like* this - but probably not *this* seat. The Labour bit is too Scouse, the Tory bit too Cheshire. Neither, I would say, are subect to much more squeezing.
And immigration, where Reform score well, has fallen down the agenda; and Ukraine, where they score badly, has risen up it. Of course, we don't yet have a date for a BE, so that may have flipped again by the time the election comes around.
Though given by election swings tend to be even bigger than nationally and the LDs, by election protest specialists, were not even in the top 4 in Runcorn at the GE Reform will hope to squeeze the protest vote to beat Labour
Many would scoff at the notion of LD>Ref swing, but I agree this will be a factor for the reasons you say. Though possibly a bigger factor will be apparent LD to Ref swing which is really LD to Con (disillusioned Con voters returning home) coupled with Con to Ref.
Either way, my view is a Lab win as an 80% probability.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
Last posted on the morning after the US election, apparently.
Perfectly understandable to require some time to get one's head around that.
The other question is how big will the Europeans' aid package be for Ukraine today? Will it be enough to see them through another 6 months? If so, Trump will have lost such control as he has and Russia will start to panic as their economic crisis intensifies.
Ideally, we are looking for something close to $20bn with roughly 10% of that from us.
The traitorous scum Orbán is going to block that . They refuse to approve any more arms sales .
Its interesting how effective Hungary, a small recipient country, is in causing disruption in the EU.
Compared to how ineffective the UK, a large contributor country, was in EU negotiations.
Perhaps if the UK leaders had done a little more vetoing and a little less posturing and surrendering then the UK would still be in the EU.
EU needs to get its act together and kick out Hungary. Time for countries to pick a side.
They can’t . There’s no actual mechanism to kick them out . You can suspend their voting rights in the EP and put in other measures but need unanimous agreement from the remaining members and Fico another Putin puppet will block those .
Europe needs to start replacing the carrots with sticks. If some countries want to cause difficulties that are contrary to the security of the whole group, then a way can be found to politely remind them that if they’d like to be outside the club at the mercy of Russia and without access to the benefits, the door is over there.
Europe really has to start remaking itself as a security-first collective. I think Merz, and perhaps increasingly Macron, are starting to get this.
It's also not impossible that such a security collective overlaps but is distinct from the EU. And indeed NATO. That would get around the vetos of the semi-detached (or worse) members, and allow the participation of non EU members (ie the UK and Norway).
QMV is possible in the Council of the EU on Common Foreign and Security Policy - Article 31 of Lisbon. So there is no veto on such matters (unless somebody important like France objects). Orban didn't vote in favour of EU association for Ukraine but it still passed.
You've misread it.
If a member of the Council says they will oppose a decision, a vote will not take place. A member can abstain and "check out" on a matter; that means it will not be bound by any decision made by the rest but it also agrees it will not obstruct the Union in pursuing it.
The Council can only decide to act by QMV on a matter if the European Council first unanimously agrees.
In any event, EU structures are hardly conducive to rapid decision making, which is probably what's required here, if it's to make any contribution to resolving our current difficulties.
Any European defence alliance will have to be taken outside of EU structures.
Tissues and hugs for the federalists.
The likely outcome to all this is More Europe, not less.
It's more European defence cooperation. Not for your sordid dream.
No sordid dream here, just the reality. The increased security co-operation will inevitably create incentives to tie European nations closer together. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a significant shift in how Europe deals with border policy and external threats. So we will get a different Europe, perhaps a multi-speed Europe, perhaps not the federalist dream but not the dream of eurosceptics either. But certainly more Europe than we had before.
As a Leaver I have to agree with this
Indeed I reckon there is now a chance for the UK to make the kind of EU we always wanted
We should say to them: we will unite in common European security and defence - for those willing - France, Holland, Nordics, Poland, Balts, maybe Germany Italy or Spain? - and offer a nuclear guarantee, but in return we want a Single Market with limited Free Movement and the end of the ECHR and an ECJ severely curtailed in its purview
That’s not a bad deal for both sides
It’s time to think BIGLY
How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.
If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
However leaving it would place the UK in a small group of none ECHR countries alongside Russia and Belarus so it would probably have significant impacts on our relationship with EU and other European countries
Russia is the only country to withdraw from the ECHR/Council of Europe (after having been suspended). Belarus applied to join, but the Council of Europe said no.
In terms of countries with territory in Europe, Kazakhstan and Kosovo have applied to join the Council of Europe, but haven't been accepted yet. That leaves the Vatican as the only other European country not in the Council of Europe and they have observer status.
WRT Runcorn possible by-election. Is there now anyone in politics who will welcome one? Reform would have until their best mates started backing Russia; but now?
Reform UK were (a distant) second at the general. This is a prime target for them.
The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.
1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet 2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
That their Welsh leader was taking bribes from the Russians, back when he was an MEP, says it all.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.
Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."
You: "Um, yes ok."
Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.
No, because one doesn't turn on the person who is getting their pockets turned over by the school bully. One still turns on the school bully for the extortion and theft.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
Apparently a 1% chance and still rising of it hitting the moon. From the pov of an observer sitting on the asteroid, it will now most likely pass the earth outside it's orbit, approaching above the Indian Ocean, and with the moon showing behind the earth on that same side, on for any collision about an hour after passing earth. I'm guessing best visibility from earth would be somewhere far east, such as China or the Philippines.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
Last posted on the morning after the US election, apparently.
Perfectly understandable to require some time to get one's head around that.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.
Without any doubt whatsoever. Not least most everyone on PB.
Just because you're utterly cynical and partisan doesn't mean the rest of us are.
It's the most rational approach. Cynical, at least. Much as it might be wonderful to walk the earth seeing events through the eyes of a five-year old, reality has taught us that oftentimes our most cynical take on something will still underestimate the nature of that thing.
An option for the first EuTO naval base in the Eastern Med.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the shutdown of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, according to Greek newspaper Dimokratia.
According to Greek media, Trump’s decision to dismantle the military presence in Alexandroupoli came after a joint request from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The base in Alexandroupoli has been a key logistical hub for U.S. and NATO operations in southeastern Europe. Its presence had been a point of contention, particularly with Turkey, which has long opposed U.S. military operations in the region.. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1893976303906271406
'With Volodymyr Zelenskyy offering to resign in exchange for NATO membership, a new YouGov survey has shown that 62% of Britons would support Ukraine being admitted to NATO.'
'While 68% of Britons say the UK should keep its NATO collective defence obligations in principle, this willingness changes depending on the country being attacked
If [X] were being attacked... 🇫🇷 France: 65% of Britons say UK should defend 🇩🇪 Germany: 62% 🇸🇪 Sweden: 62% 🇫🇮 Finland: 61% 🇵🇱 Poland: 60% 🇬🇷 Greece: 57% 🇭🇷 Croatia: 50% 🇺🇦 Ukraine*: 49% 🇱🇻 Latvia: 48% 🇷🇴 Romania: 45% 🇺🇸 USA: 42% 🇹🇷 Turkey: 37%'
If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.
Without any doubt whatsoever. Not least most everyone on PB.
Just because you're utterly cynical and partisan doesn't mean the rest of us are.
It's the most rational approach. Cynical, at least. Much as it might be wonderful to walk the earth seeing events through the eyes of a five-year old, reality has taught us that oftentimes our most cynical take on something will still underestimate the nature of that thing.
That's like something Kamala Harris would come out with.
Of course it's rational. The surrender in Singapore '42 was rational.
RACHEL RILEY IS NO LONGER ON COUNTDOWN (CHANNEL 4)!
Duh duuuh, duh duuuh, dubble di do, piping
AI struggled with this:
"Oh, you mean that iconic, anxiety-inducing sound from the 30-second countdown clock? Alright, here’s my best attempt at spelling it out in both words and ridiculous letter sounds:
DOO-DOO… DOO-DOO… DOO-DOO… (deep, ominous buildup sounds) Duh-DUH! Duh-DUH! Duh-DUH! (it’s getting serious now, uh-oh!) DEEEEHHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRRR!! (final moment of pure panic as the clock screams at you to decide!) BZZZT!! (and now you’re out of time, fool!)
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.
Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."
You: "Um, yes ok."
Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
....and one evening in walks Dinsdale with a couple of big lads, one of whom was carrying a tactical nuclear missile. They said I had bought one of their fruit machines and would I pay for it.
2nd Interviewer: How much did they want?
Vercotti: They wanted three quarters of a million pounds.
2nd Interviewer: Why didn't you call the police?
Vercotti: Well I had noticed that the lad with the thermonuclear device was the chief constable for the area.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.
Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."
You: "Um, yes ok."
Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
This again comes from your rather naive, if touching expectation that it is beholden upon the US to defend the West. You may think that is exactly what the US must do. But the American voters and the current president apparently don't think of it in those terms. For them, it is more transactional. Sitting miles away from the conflict they wonder what's in it for them. And they elected a president who is asking just such a question directly.
It's precisely what they voted for.
All your precious value judgements count for diddly squat and illustrate, more, a misunderestimation of how geopolitics works.
We have agreed that you are out of your depth on this forum, and you seen intent on proving this time and time again.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
Last posted on the morning after the US election, apparently.
Perfectly understandable to require some time to get one's head around that.
Either that, or he's in Guantanamo ...
I do fondly imagine him to have joined The Liberal Resistance.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.
Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.
But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
I think it's reasonable to call racketeering out for what it is and to suggest that it isn't in the American interest beyond what's conflated with Trump's own interest, while recognising extortion does actually happen. The Mafia is still in business after all.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
I will believe this when I see it. Trump's word has been proven again and again to be meaningless, and the terms of the 'deals' offered have been so extortionate as to be unsignable.
Now, maybe someone has put forward a Molotov-Ribbentrop arrangement, though if that is de facto on the table then it's a major concession from Putin, who wants Ukraine as - at the minimum - a satellite state. Massive American investment, even for their own ends, would of necessity mean a US security interest in the country, one that could only be guaranteed by US force. In effect, that's NATO arriving in Kyiv.
But Ukraine's population can't be ignored in this. They've proven themselves well-capable of revolutions and to hand over the resources of the country to someone else, after all they've been through, undefeated, might well provoke another one. Zelensky must know that.
Personally, I remain sceptical. But if it is true, it's very much not a cause for celebration. It will not be the end of the story.
'With Volodymyr Zelenskyy offering to resign in exchange for NATO membership, a new YouGov survey has shown that 62% of Britons would support Ukraine being admitted to NATO.'
'While 68% of Britons say the UK should keep its NATO collective defence obligations in principle, this willingness changes depending on the country being attacked
If [X] were being attacked... 🇫🇷 France: 65% of Britons say UK should defend 🇩🇪 Germany: 62% 🇸🇪 Sweden: 62% 🇫🇮 Finland: 61% 🇵🇱 Poland: 60% 🇬🇷 Greece: 57% 🇭🇷 Croatia: 50% 🇺🇦 Ukraine*: 49% 🇱🇻 Latvia: 48% 🇷🇴 Romania: 45% 🇺🇸 USA: 42% 🇹🇷 Turkey: 37%'
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
An option for the first EuTO naval base in the Eastern Med.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the shutdown of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, according to Greek newspaper Dimokratia.
According to Greek media, Trump’s decision to dismantle the military presence in Alexandroupoli came after a joint request from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The base in Alexandroupoli has been a key logistical hub for U.S. and NATO operations in southeastern Europe. Its presence had been a point of contention, particularly with Turkey, which has long opposed U.S. military operations in the region.. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1893976303906271406
Turkey opposes US military operations of its fellow NATO member.
Looking at the numbers (US - $920bn) Europe really does have to have a conversation with itself to understand whether it is willing to "get its arse into gear", defence spending-wise.
And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.
Looking at the numbers (US - $920bn) Europe really does have to have a conversation with itself to understand whether it is willing to "get its arse into gear", defence spending-wise.
And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.
Well, Europe has no interest in projecting power; the vast bulk of any defence capability is going to be land based, and defensive. The goal is to deter Russia (or someone else) from fucking around at the edges of the continent.
So, I would argue that at least what it needs to do is fairly simple - with the massive proviso being that we need to learn the lessons of Ukraine, and about what works and what doesn't.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.
Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.
But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
I think it's reasonable to call racketeering out for what it is and to suggest that it isn't in the American interest beyond what's conflated with Trump's own interest, while recognising extortion does actually happen. The Mafia is still in business after all.
This = similar to calling him Hitler. He is doing what he was elected to do. You all seem to have a huge blind spot when it comes to US politics which is strange, given the nature of this website.
An option for the first EuTO naval base in the Eastern Med.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the shutdown of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, according to Greek newspaper Dimokratia.
According to Greek media, Trump’s decision to dismantle the military presence in Alexandroupoli came after a joint request from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The base in Alexandroupoli has been a key logistical hub for U.S. and NATO operations in southeastern Europe. Its presence had been a point of contention, particularly with Turkey, which has long opposed U.S. military operations in the region.. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1893976303906271406
Turkey opposes US military operations of its fellow NATO member.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....
By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
A new smallish crater. Nothing more.
It wouldn’t be Shoemaker–Levy, but with a bit of notice we might be able to get some nice video and other observations. The might, for instance, be some interesting data to be gathered about how the impact's shockwaves propagate in the moon’s crust and core.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.
Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.
But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
No, I agree. It seems that Trump sees an alliance with Putin as a way to simultaneously weaken the EU, and prize Russia away from China. Taking the mantle of 19th Century Duplicitous Albion from us, and projecting it into the 21st Century.
Looking at the numbers (US - $920bn) Europe really does have to have a conversation with itself to understand whether it is willing to "get its arse into gear", defence spending-wise.
And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.
Well, Europe has no interest in projecting power; the vast bulk of any defence capability is going to be land based, and defensive. The goal is to deter Russia (or someone else) from fucking around at the edges of the continent.
So, I would argue that at least what it needs to do is fairly simple - with the massive proviso being that we need to learn the lessons of Ukraine, and about what works and what doesn't.
When you "unpick" that, you end up on a war footing and associated expenditure. Because how else are you going to "deter Russia (or someone else [?]) from fucking around at the edges of the continent"?
I mean we - Europe - are nuclear powers. Do you think that's relevant?
Never ignore the bit after any "and" in the constituency name.
Once upon a time a good showing in Spen saved Starmer Labour, perhaps Helsby in Remainian but quite Tory Cheshire could do the same.
I'll crunch some relevant looking numbers some time.
Helsby is comfortable but not really posh. Actually the sort of place Ref do quite well. Frodsham (where Mike Amesbury had his fight) OTOH, and the bits of Delamere Forest in the constituency, are much more Tory in tone and I would say rather more Remainian.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
I will believe this when I see it. Trump's word has been proven again and again to be meaningless, and the terms of the 'deals' offered have been so extortionate as to be unsignable.
Now, maybe someone has put forward a Molotov-Ribbentrop arrangement, though if that is de facto on the table then it's a major concession from Putin, who wants Ukraine as - at the minimum - a satellite state. Massive American investment, even for their own ends, would of necessity mean a US security interest in the country, one that could only be guaranteed by US force. In effect, that's NATO arriving in Kyiv.
But Ukraine's population can't be ignored in this. They've proven themselves well-capable of revolutions and to hand over the resources of the country to someone else, after all they've been through, undefeated, might well provoke another one. Zelensky must know that.
Personally, I remain sceptical. But if it is true, it's very much not a cause for celebration. It will not be the end of the story.
It will be a time to discover whether the continuous back channel communications are being conducted by sensible people.
Who will then explain to Trump what is going to happen.
As for Trump's word - look at his "Hamas must release every hostage" rhetoric. Release every hostage Hamas didn't and the world kept turning.
Looking at the numbers (US - $920bn) Europe really does have to have a conversation with itself to understand whether it is willing to "get its arse into gear", defence spending-wise.
And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.
Well, Europe has no interest in projecting power; the vast bulk of any defence capability is going to be land based, and defensive. The goal is to deter Russia (or someone else) from fucking around at the edges of the continent.
This morning at Dept of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) HQ in DC as mandatory return to office began, this video played on loop for ~5 mins on screens throughout the building, per agency source.
Building staff couldn’t figure out how to turn it off so sent people to every floor to unplug TVs.
The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent, according to a recent draft text seen by Bloomberg
US will agree a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, texts shows
US will signal intent to invest in Ukraine
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages”
Person familiar says a new draft has almost been agreed and is awaiting a reply from the US
If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
The text looks like a load of waffle . Best await the detail before declaring victory !
Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous
But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.
Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."
You: "Um, yes ok."
Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
This again comes from your rather naive, if touching expectation that it is beholden upon the US to defend the West. You may think that is exactly what the US must do. But the American voters and the current president apparently don't think of it in those terms. For them, it is more transactional. Sitting miles away from the conflict they wonder what's in it for them. And they elected a president who is asking just such a question directly.
It's precisely what they voted for.
All your precious value judgements count for diddly squat and illustrate, more, a misunderestimation of how geopolitics works.
We have agreed that you are out of your depth on this forum, and you seen intent on proving this time and time again.
Yet I often feel I have to dumb down down to talk to you. Because extreme cynicism, I have to tell you, is adjacent to naivety. The old horseshoe in operation again.
It's well illustrated by the notion that "geopolitics" is nothing more than the powerful exploiting the needy for short term £££ gain. There's plenty of that, of course there is, but it is not exclusively how "it" works. That's a noddy view.
I think you're straining to stand out from a "PB consensus" and in the process to look worldly. Plus I think you're too impressed by Donald Trump and are reading too much into that election win. It doesn't justify everything he does.
Comments
US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
There’s probably a workaround which avoids leaving the ECHR outright.
As for the ECJ, any involvement in the single market must require a judicial body to enforce breaches of those arrangements. The EFTA court, if I understand correctly, looks largely to the ECJ for case law.
Again, it is probably more useful to revise rather than reject the ECJ. Cameron’s negotiation for example seemed to secure an opt-out that the ECJ should not rule in favour of “ever-closer union”.
This moment in time is ripe for British statecraft, but I worry that the British state has simply lost the will and capacity.
Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
As I understand it the primary lens this should all be looked through is the Human Rights Act and not the ECHR, because the former allows domestic courts to consider the ECHR and its compatibility with domestic law.
Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.
But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
Which of the 18 Articles do you think should be scrapped. How about 12 - the right to marry. Seems redundant now.
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/what-is-the-european-convention-on-human-rights?
I will avoid getting into analysing your very strange views on sovereignty yet again.
1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet
2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
Many of whom were quite keen that it would happen (seems a bit less likely now).
If they fail to win we could see peak Reform.
...Oasis were one of the biggest bands in Britain at the time and were asked to appear on the soundtrack. Noel Gallagher said no, however, later admitting “I honestly thought it was about trainspotters. I didn't know.”..
https://x.com/ATRightMovies/status/1893609407289659505
So this from the Guardian this afternoon should be noted:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/24/trump-free-speech-media-attack
(* As I unbox a new Home Hub mini)
Cracking place.
https://www.popeseye.com/
Either way, my view is a Lab win as an 80% probability.
In terms of countries with territory in Europe, Kazakhstan and Kosovo have applied to join the Council of Europe, but haven't been accepted yet. That leaves the Vatican as the only other European country not in the Council of Europe and they have observer status.
I wouldn’t trust any guarantees from the USA but he might need to sign it to buy time and give Trump his win .
It’s up to Europe now to get its arse into gear .
Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."
You: "Um, yes ok."
Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
I mean, we are all utterly cynical and partisan, but not because TOPPING is.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the shutdown of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, according to Greek newspaper Dimokratia.
According to Greek media, Trump’s decision to dismantle the military presence in Alexandroupoli came after a joint request from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The base in Alexandroupoli has been a key logistical hub for U.S. and NATO operations in southeastern Europe. Its presence had been a point of contention, particularly with Turkey, which has long opposed U.S. military operations in the region..
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1893976303906271406
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967198009397379
'Support for the UK's membership of NATO among...
Lib Dem voters: 82%
Labour voters: 76%
Conservative voters: 74%
Reform UK voters: 57%'
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967202753069515
'While 68% of Britons say the UK should keep its NATO collective defence obligations in principle, this willingness changes depending on the country being attacked
If [X] were being attacked...
🇫🇷 France: 65% of Britons say UK should defend
🇩🇪 Germany: 62%
🇸🇪 Sweden: 62%
🇫🇮 Finland: 61%
🇵🇱 Poland: 60%
🇬🇷 Greece: 57%
🇭🇷 Croatia: 50%
🇺🇦 Ukraine*: 49%
🇱🇻 Latvia: 48%
🇷🇴 Romania: 45%
🇺🇸 USA: 42%
🇹🇷 Turkey: 37%'
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967207329145259
Of course it's rational. The surrender in Singapore '42 was rational.
ABOLISH THE TRIPLE LOCK for starters.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/benefits-and-foreign-aid-cuts-needed-to-fund-extra-defence-spending-labour-mps-say/ar-AA1zCL0O?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=19a4750268cf490df3c7c5c08a65be13&ei=20
"Oh, you mean that iconic, anxiety-inducing sound from the 30-second countdown clock? Alright, here’s my best attempt at spelling it out in both words and ridiculous letter sounds:
DOO-DOO… DOO-DOO… DOO-DOO… (deep, ominous buildup sounds)
Duh-DUH! Duh-DUH! Duh-DUH! (it’s getting serious now, uh-oh!)
DEEEEHHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRRR!! (final moment of pure panic as the clock screams at you to decide!)
BZZZT!! (and now you’re out of time, fool!)
Letters-wise? Something like:
"DOO DOO... DOO DOO... DOO DOO... DUH-DUH! DUH-DUH! DUH-DUH! DEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRR!! BZZZZZT!!""
Nah.
....and one evening in walks Dinsdale with a couple of big lads, one of whom was carrying a tactical nuclear missile. They said I had bought one of their fruit machines and would I pay for it.
2nd Interviewer: How much did they want?
Vercotti: They wanted three quarters of a million pounds.
2nd Interviewer: Why didn't you call the police?
Vercotti: Well I had noticed that the lad with the thermonuclear device was the chief constable for the area.
REACH Media can get a few days clickbait/engagement farming out of this.
"Rachel Riley no longer on COUNTDOWN, click here for full story"
It's precisely what they voted for.
All your precious value judgements count for diddly squat and illustrate, more, a misunderestimation of how geopolitics works.
We have agreed that you are out of your depth on this forum, and you seen intent on proving this time and time again.
Now, maybe someone has put forward a Molotov-Ribbentrop arrangement, though if that is de facto on the table then it's a major concession from Putin, who wants Ukraine as - at the minimum - a satellite state. Massive American investment, even for their own ends, would of necessity mean a US security interest in the country, one that could only be guaranteed by US force. In effect, that's NATO arriving in Kyiv.
But Ukraine's population can't be ignored in this. They've proven themselves well-capable of revolutions and to hand over the resources of the country to someone else, after all they've been through, undefeated, might well provoke another one. Zelensky must know that.
Personally, I remain sceptical. But if it is true, it's very much not a cause for celebration. It will not be the end of the story.
Never ignore the bit after any "and" in the constituency name.
Once upon a time a good showing in Spen saved Starmer Labour, perhaps Helsby in Remainian but quite Tory Cheshire could do the same.
I'll crunch some relevant looking numbers some time.
OK...
And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.
Be worth it, tbh.
So, I would argue that at least what it needs to do is fairly simple - with the massive proviso being that we need to learn the lessons of Ukraine, and about what works and what doesn't.
It's depressing but entirely believable.
I mean we - Europe - are nuclear powers. Do you think that's relevant?
Sad when this happens.
Who will then explain to Trump what is going to happen.
As for Trump's word - look at his "Hamas must release every hostage" rhetoric. Release every hostage Hamas didn't and the world kept turning.
The rest, do not.
This morning at Dept of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) HQ in DC as mandatory return to office began, this video played on loop for ~5 mins on screens throughout the building, per agency source.
Building staff couldn’t figure out how to turn it off so sent people to every floor to unplug TVs.
https://bsky.app/profile/marisakabas.bsky.social/post/3liwlwvvq6k2s
It's well illustrated by the notion that "geopolitics" is nothing more than the powerful exploiting the needy for short term £££ gain. There's plenty of that, of course there is, but it is not exclusively how "it" works. That's a noddy view.
I think you're straining to stand out from a "PB consensus" and in the process to look worldly. Plus I think you're too impressed by Donald Trump and are reading too much into that election win. It doesn't justify everything he does.