PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com

System · February 22

PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com

For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200, and the average of all entries is 137 (rounded). There’s not long to wait to see how we all fared on that question.

Read the full story here

rkrkrk · February 22

Thanks for doing this!

FrancisUrquhart · February 22

Even 12 year olds now building businesses ontop of LLMs....

DeepTutor by Opennote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_J4XbFRRqw

kamski · February 22

AfD seats I'd guess around 150, but a fairly wide range is possible depending on how many of the 3 parties close to 5% in the polls make the cut, and on how accurate the polling is.

150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.

Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.

Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.

If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.

Foxy · February 22

kamski said:
AfD seats I'd guess around 150, but a fairly wide range is possible depending on how many of the 3 parties close to 5% in the polls make the cut, and on how accurate the polling is.

150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.

Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.

Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.

If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.

Not much in the way of betting markets for tomorrow, at least not in the UK.

I think Linke will do well, they seem to genuinely have momentum.

Ratters · February 22

Foxy said:

kamski said:
AfD seats I'd guess around 150, but a fairly wide range is possible depending on how many of the 3 parties close to 5% in the polls make the cut, and on how accurate the polling is.

150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.

Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.

Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.

If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.
Not much in the way of betting markets for tomorrow, at least not in the UK.

I think Linke will do well, they seem to genuinely have momentum.

I'm hoping FDP and BSW don't make it, just because it makes the major parties stronger and will make it easier to get a deal through on Ukraine.

CDU may even have a choice between SDP and Greens as coalition partners. If all parties make the threshold it may need to be a 3-way coalition.

kamski · February 22

Ratters said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:
AfD seats I'd guess around 150, but a fairly wide range is possible depending on how many of the 3 parties close to 5% in the polls make the cut, and on how accurate the polling is.

150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.

Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.

Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.

If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.
Not much in the way of betting markets for tomorrow, at least not in the UK.

I think Linke will do well, they seem to genuinely have momentum.
I'm hoping FDP and BSW don't make it, just because it makes the major parties stronger and will make it easier to get a deal through on Ukraine.

CDU may even have a choice between SDP and Greens as coalition partners. If all parties make the threshold it may need to be a 3-way coalition.

Also because the BSW is a Putin-friendly personality cult, and the FDP are an opportunistic lobby group for the very wealthy who wrecked the last government.

bondegezou · February 22

“Nigel Farage has hailed Donald Trump as the “bravest man that I know” hours after contradicting the US president’s claim that Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a “dictator”.”

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/02/21/donald-trump-is-the-bravest-man-that-i-know-says-nigel-farage/

Nigelb · February 22

Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.

Theuniondivvie · February 22

Racketeer news.

https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1893118619258610168?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

kamski · February 22

Nigelb said:
Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.

South Korea and Taiwan must also be horrified looking at this, and be looking for alternative partners for all the things they are currently dependent on the US for.

Benpointer · February 22

bondegezou said:
“Nigel Farage has hailed Donald Trump as the “bravest man that I know” hours after contradicting the US president’s claim that Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a “dictator”.”

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/02/21/donald-trump-is-the-bravest-man-that-i-know-says-nigel-farage/

And there was me thinking that Farage didn't do comedy.

Ratters · February 22

kamski said:

Ratters said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:
AfD seats I'd guess around 150, but a fairly wide range is possible depending on how many of the 3 parties close to 5% in the polls make the cut, and on how accurate the polling is.

150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.

Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.

Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.

If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.
Not much in the way of betting markets for tomorrow, at least not in the UK.

I think Linke will do well, they seem to genuinely have momentum.
I'm hoping FDP and BSW don't make it, just because it makes the major parties stronger and will make it easier to get a deal through on Ukraine.

CDU may even have a choice between SDP and Greens as coalition partners. If all parties make the threshold it may need to be a 3-way coalition.
Also because the BSW is a Putin-friendly personality cult, and the FDP are an opportunistic lobby group for the very wealthy who wrecked the last government.

Yep that too.

If by some miracle there is a polling error that brings SPD above AfD that'd be even better. Helps change the narrative around the results, even if it has limited impact on the seats.

Benpointer · February 22

I'll try to keep an eye on this thread today for any questions on the Competition entries but feel free to PM me if you want to be certain I see your query.

Thanks to all those who entered!

Foxy · February 22

kamski said:

Nigelb said:
Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.
South Korea and Taiwan must also be horrified looking at this, and be looking for alternative partners for all the things they are currently dependent on the US for.

Their biggest threat is their falling fertility rate. There won't be enough young men in either country in 20 years time to have a military.

In the meantime the Chinese Navy is causing mischief in the Tasman Sea.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-21/chinese-warship-pilot-hazard-east-coast/104966826?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Nigelb · February 22

Benpointer said:

bondegezou said:
“Nigel Farage has hailed Donald Trump as the “bravest man that I know” hours after contradicting the US president’s claim that Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a “dictator”.”

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/02/21/donald-trump-is-the-bravest-man-that-i-know-says-nigel-farage/
And there was me thinking that Farage didn't do comedy.

Or fellatio.

Jonathan · February 22

See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

Foxy · February 22

Benpointer said:
I'll try to keep an eye on this thread today for any questions on the Competition entries but feel free to PM me if you want to be certain I see your query.

Thanks to all those who entered!

Thanks for your work on this. Mine was derived by Number Wang.

Nigelb · February 22

kamski said:

Nigelb said:
Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.
South Korea and Taiwan must also be horrified looking at this, and be looking for alternative partners for all the things they are currently dependent on the US for.

I don’t think Taiwan uses Starlink.
Prior experience of being ratfucked, I guess.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/not-starlink-taiwan-wants-amazon-to-fight/
.. Starlink is not currently available in Taiwan, as earlier discussions reportedly broke down over Taiwan’s requirement that any joint venture include a local entity holding a majority share.

Taiwanese officials explained that they could not proceed with Starlink because Musk’s company refused to agree to a partnership in which a Taiwanese entity, such as Chunghwa Telecom, would hold at least 50% ownership, as mandated by Taiwan’s government….

CD13 · February 22

So Trump's grand ambition was always to establish himself as a Mafia Don. Perfect for his mixture of arrogance and ignorance. I never thought an American President would out-Putin Putin.

Nigelb · February 22

“My friend Benny” is one of the one of ones on Putin’s payroll.

FOX NEWS: MSNBC said "Pam Bondi brings politics back to the AG office." They go after you for thinking it was a good idea to attend CPAC and record a podcast with Ted Cruz. How do you respond?

BONDI: Well, I had a great time yesterday with Sen. Cruz and my friend Benny Johnson who was there. I recorded something for him if they want to see that also ... they don't know the team that's hit them.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1893020278382342590

Foxy · February 22

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.

FF43 · February 22

Another thing about JD Vance. Who goes to Dachau, declares they are very moved by it and it must never happen again, and of course Germany needs to start re-electing Nazis?

My prediction was 166 AFD. I'm hoping to be surprised on the downside.

ydoethur · February 22

Foxy said:

kamski said:

Nigelb said:
Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.
South Korea and Taiwan must also be horrified looking at this, and be looking for alternative partners for all the things they are currently dependent on the US for.
Their biggest threat is their falling fertility rate. There won't be enough young men in either country in 20 years time to have a military.

In the meantime the Chinese Navy is causing mischief in the Tasman Sea.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-21/chinese-warship-pilot-hazard-east-coast/104966826?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Although critical mass may mitigate this to some extent, it’s worth remembering that’s a very serious problem for China too.

Jonathan · February 22

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.

I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.

SandyRentool · February 22

I see that my 88 / "HH" is the low-side outlier.

So almost everyone will be hoping I get the points!

FF43 · February 22

Theuniondivvie said:
Racketeer news.

https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1893118619258610168?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

It's the pleasure they take in screwing over allies that's the most galling.

kamski · February 22

Foxy said:

kamski said:
AfD seats I'd guess around 150, but a fairly wide range is possible depending on how many of the 3 parties close to 5% in the polls make the cut, and on how accurate the polling is.

150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.

Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.

Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.

If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.
Not much in the way of betting markets for tomorrow, at least not in the UK.

I think Linke will do well, they seem to genuinely have momentum.

The Left have run quite a good campaign I think, with clear messaging, unlike the Greens for example. The Left have in a way benefited from the splitters finally splitting off to form the BSW, as they can now appear a lot more united.

It looked last year like the BSW might be the last nail in the coffin for the Left. They were down to 3% in the polls, in the state elections in new Bundesländer they were partly replaced by the BSW. Eg in Thüringen they dropped from first place to 4th.

But the BSW have looked increasingly like an incompetent personality cult, and their success in those elections means that they are now in coalition governments with the SPD in Brandenburg, and with a CDU-led government in Thüringen, which must have annoyed quite a lot of their voters.

kamski · February 22

SandyRentool said:
I see that my 88 / "HH" is the low-side outlier.

So almost everyone will be hoping I get the points!

I'd be very pleasantly amazed

nico67 · February 22

The most disturbing aspect of the AFD policies is the deportation of Afghan women . Add to that German citizens can also be deported .

And these are the people JD Vance thinks would be great for Germany .

kamski · February 22

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.

It's being talked about A LOT here in Germany. People very worried.

boulay · February 22

Foxy said:

kamski said:

Nigelb said:
Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.
South Korea and Taiwan must also be horrified looking at this, and be looking for alternative partners for all the things they are currently dependent on the US for.
Their biggest threat is their falling fertility rate. There won't be enough young men in either country in 20 years time to have a military.

In the meantime the Chinese Navy is causing mischief in the Tasman Sea.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-21/chinese-warship-pilot-hazard-east-coast/104966826?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Pity Australia.

Morris_Dancer · February 22

Signs America's going a bit nuts: the French far right leader cancels a meeting because of Nazi saluting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2glydm3gmo

Jonathan · February 22

The challenge of our day is how to deal with social media misinformation bubbles. So many Americans on Twitter talking BS about the U.K. due to propaganda.

nico67 · February 22

I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .

Can’t they kick the can down the road or alternatively just send the King to Washington .

Scott_xP · February 22

...

Nigelb · February 22

Net Approval of Trump's Handling of the Economy:

January 26: +4%
February 18: -8%

- Ipsos -
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1893073177107923098

FrancisUrquhart · February 22

Scott_xP said:
...

They missed a trick there, it should have been Bezos in the directors chair, but Trump telling him I want the that one (Putin) to be the new Bond from a line-up of Damien Lewis, Idris Elba, etc.

kamski · February 22

Scott_xP said:
...

Groundbreaking to have 2 Bond villains at the same time. Makes up for the absence of a Bond.

Scott_xP · February 22

So what Bond will Bezos create in a post-Trump world, when Disney and Netflix have binned their DEI teams and learnt the ratings war lesson of “go woke, go broke”? A Bond unapologetic about his libido, surrounded by babes, certainly. But what of the villain: a Chinese or Russian dictator, a renegade US president or a global trillionaire with limitless power, accountable to no one and who even owns James Bond?

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/amazon-licence-to-kill-james-bond-jeff-bezos-nc6t9gsvz

Richard_Tyndall · February 22

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.

Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

kinabalu · February 22

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .

Can’t they kick the can down the road or alternatively just send the King to Washington

We can be "transactional". A state visit if he brings Ukraine into NATO, forces Israel to recognise a free and sovereign Palestine, forgets about tariffs, and sacks Elon Musk.

Malmesbury · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Jim_Miller said:
Robert - If you are interested in revitalizing the UK economy, let me suggest you learn from the example of Levittown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York
Note that it was "semi-manufactured".

In principle, the UK -- and the US -- could have better, and cheaper, housing for most by moving toward manufactured housing. The money saved could be used for investment in factories, research, education and, in the US, better security for "marginalized" people.

Is this politically possible? I think so, if done in the right way, begining with an experimental community having a variety of homes from different manufacturers.
The problems of house building are a long, long way from *how* to build them.

We could massively increase construction rates before running into issues of materials or labour.

The issue is actually getting the building started.
I thought we were already running into issues of materials and labour even at the rates we are currently building?

The bottlenecks are down to incompetent management in the large firms and supply chain stupidities.

The smaller firms find that the cost of labour has gone up - they pay it. The big corporates try “but policy is to pay brick layers 2p a week” - and find no brick layers.

In the supply chain, you get idiots trying to ramp prices. Often in concert.

Last year, you had an attempt to ramp the price of marble tiles - several outlets (by strange coincidence) increased their prices, together. They then whined when some enterprising chaps sent a lorry or two to Spain and Italy to pick up loads directly. There was a ramp attempted on RSJ previously - which the previous government killed by refusing to limit imports.

Jonathan · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

That’s rubbish. I wonder if we all have to stop biting our tongues and flood the zone. Normally it’s just not worth it, but being polite and/or holding back has led to this place.

I wonder if we could make it necessary to put some kind of guardrails on social media. A one pound fee to join might stop the bots.

kamski · February 22

I

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

I have a friend who offered to send me links to YouTube videos that would explain to me the truth of how Putin is the good guy. I said thanks very much, but could you please send links to written arguments, because I find videos tend to be short on facts, long on manipulation, harder to check sources and so on.

I haven't heard back.

TimS · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

There are a lot of them out there. But maybe there always were, they’re just more emboldened now? My in laws are similar (though I’m not sure they’ve gone for Trump).

stodge · February 22

Afternoon all from a thundery Singapore

Fair to say the Chinese “live fire” exercises in the Tasman have alarmed both Australia and New Zealand and both Governments are using the incident as justification to increase defence spending.

In truth, the Chinese were doing nothing wrong as they were in international waters and NZ Defence Minister Judith Collin’s admitted both Australia and New Zealand had done the same in the South China Sea but this projection of power by Beijing reminds us the new global disorder is multi-faceted.

With Beijing diplomatically very active in the Southwest Pacific currently, both Canberra and Wellington are feeling fragile given the sense Washington is no longer the ally it was and with the European powers coming to terms with the new US-Russian rapprochement and its implications.

Dura_Ace · February 22

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .

SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.

agingjb2 · February 22

agingjb2: Competition, January 31

nico67 · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

It’s very difficult and much harder if it’s family .

Jonathan · February 22

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.

The Open at Turnberry.

nico67 · February 22

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.

He can offer to buy more US manufactured weapons . I don’t want the government legitimising a Putin puppet with a state visit .

kle4 · February 22

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:

Nigelb said:
Fingers crossed that Merz is the next Chancellor, as he isn’t completely useless on European security.

Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.

(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944

It will take years, so we need to start now.
South Korea and Taiwan must also be horrified looking at this, and be looking for alternative partners for all the things they are currently dependent on the US for.
Their biggest threat is their falling fertility rate. There won't be enough young men in either country in 20 years time to have a military.

In the meantime the Chinese Navy is causing mischief in the Tasman Sea.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-21/chinese-warship-pilot-hazard-east-coast/104966826?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
Although critical mass may mitigate this to some extent, it’s worth remembering that’s a very serious problem for China too.

Which is why this decade is critical before it begins to bite and after military reforms completed?

kle4 · February 22

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.

Wasnt there something about windmills near one of his golf courses that could be 'sorted out'?

rkrkrk · February 22

Jonathan said:
The challenge of our day is how to deal with social media misinformation bubbles. So many Americans on Twitter talking BS about the U.K. due to propaganda.

Yes. One helpful counterbalance in the UK is the BBC I suspect.
But ultimately perhaps certain platforms will need to be banned if they can't stop extremism.

Dura_Ace · February 22

stodge said:
Afternoon all from a thundery Singapore

Fair to say the Chinese “live fire” exercises in the Tasman have alarmed both Australia and New Zealand and both Governments are using the incident as justification to increase defence spending.

In truth, the Chinese were doing nothing wrong as they were in international waters and NZ Defence Minister Judith Collin’s admitted both Australia and New Zealand had done the same in the South China Sea but this projection of power by Beijing reminds us the new global disorder is multi-faceted.

With Beijing diplomatically very active in the Southwest Pacific currently, both Canberra and Wellington are feeling fragile given the sense Washington is no longer the ally it was and with the European powers coming to terms with the new US-Russian rapprochement and its implications.

The RAN, USN and RNZN have been doing FONOPS in China's backyard for years so they can hardly get the arsehole when China does it. I doubt Australia will ever get any of their Virginias while Trump is around. He'll just take their money and tell them to fuck off. The Australian political class is probably stupid or desperate enough to keep giving it to him because to do otherwise is to risk the accusation of being "soft" on China.

Scott_xP · February 22

@Billbrowder

This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that

https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854

kle4 · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

My dad went hardcore corbynista (his latest wife was always quite hard left), and im wondering if the Trump stuff might get them to realise Starmer is not an evil tory who should be killed.

Theuniondivvie · February 22

Jonathan said:

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.
The Open at Turnberry.

Trump would have to be able to enter and cameras off as his caddy kicks his ball out of bunkers etc.

A golf pro friend visits the US fairly regularly and met someone who plays with Trump occasionally; he says the cheating thing is accurate though at that level of rich guy golf it's not uncommon. The big tips for caddies are for 'helping' your player with ball tampering rather than club selection.

Jonathan · February 22

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:
The challenge of our day is how to deal with social media misinformation bubbles. So many Americans on Twitter talking BS about the U.K. due to propaganda.

Yes. One helpful counterbalance in the UK is the BBC I suspect.
But ultimately perhaps certain platforms will need to be banned if they can't stop extremism.

The BBC was created in the 1920s to solve the problem of propaganda and misinformation on the wireless . We need a BBC for the 2020s to counter misinformation on the Internet. Hard to do, but not impossible.

It’s definitely time to regulate the platforms, just make them as legally accountable as publishers.

kle4 · February 22

Scott_xP said:
@Billbrowder

This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that

https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854

We can buy Chinese EVs instead.

But seriously, it feels like all niceties are being dropped for thuggish exercises of power. That has to be worrying, the niceties kept the world a little safer.

noneoftheabove · February 22

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.
The Open at Turnberry.
Trump would have to be able to enter and cameras off as his caddy kicks his ball out of bunkers etc.

A golf pro friend visits the US fairly regularly and met someone who plays with Trump occasionally; he says the cheating thing is accurate though at that level of rich guy golf it's not uncommon. The big tips for caddies are for 'helping' your player with ball tampering rather than club selection.

One of Trumps tactics was to play the club championship on a completetly different course to everyone else. It was over 1000 yards shorter and easier. He won.

kle4 · February 22

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.
The Open at Turnberry.
Trump would have to be able to enter and cameras off as his caddy kicks his ball out of bunkers etc.

A golf pro friend visits the US fairly regularly and met someone who plays with Trump occasionally; he says the cheating thing is accurate though at that level of rich guy golf it's not uncommon. The big tips for caddies are for 'helping' your player with ball tampering rather than club selection.

I wish Trump was playing more golf. I feel like during his bitter interregnum he was concerned if he never got back in power one he'd go to prison, but two he would not have a good enough legacy as president. So he wants to ride the world hard and leave a mark.

StillWaters · February 22

FF43 said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Racketeer news.

https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1893118619258610168?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
It's the pleasure they take in screwing over allies that's the most galling.

They don’t see them as allies

That’s a geopolitical term. They are just people who needs something from them and will pay for it

Essentially they are raping America by extracting all of the goodwill value from generations of partnership and taking it for themselves

Dura_Ace · February 22

Jonathan said:

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:
The challenge of our day is how to deal with social media misinformation bubbles. So many Americans on Twitter talking BS about the U.K. due to propaganda.

Yes. One helpful counterbalance in the UK is the BBC I suspect.
But ultimately perhaps certain platforms will need to be banned if they can't stop extremism.
The BBC was created in the 1920s to solve the problem of propaganda and misinformation on the wireless . We need a BBC for the 2020s to counter misinformation on the Internet. Hard to do, but not impossible.

This was one of Corbo's ideas in 2019 but the tories on here said we couldn't afford it.

Richard_Tyndall · February 22

Jonathan said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
That’s rubbish. I wonder if we all have to stop biting our tongues and flood the zone. Normally it’s just not worth it, but being polite and/or holding back has led to this place.

I wonder if we could make it necessary to put some kind of guardrails on social media. A one pound fee to join might stop the bots.

I find it particularly difficult because of course there are elements of the overall anti-establishment position that I have long supported. For many years I was in lockstep with my friends and relations on issue like Brexit and the need for a smaller State. Classically Libertarian positions which I still maintain. But there came a point at the time of the first Trump election, and ever increasing with the anti-Ukraine stuff that has bubbled away on the Right ever since the Invasion, where I could no longer agree with many of these people. Sadly some of my family and friends have been unable to discriminate between positions on individual issues and the overall 'movement'. For them it is all or nothing. Hence the fracture.

I have been fortunate that I have been offshore almost continuously since the inauguration so have not had to face these people across the dinner table. I find myself looking for excuses to continue that distancing as I would not want a permanent rift with family members or decades old friends.

Scott_xP · February 22

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.
The Open at Turnberry.
Trump would have to be able to enter and cameras off as his caddy kicks his ball out of bunkers etc.

A golf pro friend visits the US fairly regularly and met someone who plays with Trump occasionally; he says the cheating thing is accurate though at that level of rich guy golf it's not uncommon. The big tips for caddies are for 'helping' your player with ball tampering rather than club selection.
I wish Trump was playing more golf. I feel like during his bitter interregnum he was concerned if he never got back in power one he'd go to prison, but two he would not have a good enough legacy as president. So he wants to ride the world hard and leave a mark.

@RpsAgainstTrump

Trump accused federal workers of playing golf—after spending Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday on the course himself.

You can’t make this shit up.

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1892459440541970942

CD13 · February 22

What's the worst that Trump can do? Think Don Corleone on a bad day. How does Vance compare? Does anyone know?

DavidL · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.

Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

kamski · February 22

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
It's being talked about A LOT here in Germany. People very worried.

Also, I've heard a few people express some grim satisfaction that Tesla's market share in Germany has fallen from 14% a year ago to 4% last month.

Dura_Ace · February 22

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:
@Billbrowder

This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that

https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854
We can buy Chinese EVs instead.

I had a BYD rental car in Italy a few weeks ago when I was trying to get a 996 with a cooked IMS back from Malta (impulse buy!). Good powertrain (although who knows how long it will last). The interior was shit garbage and it was fitted with the cheapest tyres known to the Far East automotive supply chain - although that could have been a rental car thing. Definitely wouldn't have one over a Renault 5 or even a Pug E208.

StillWaters · February 22

Scott_xP said:
@Billbrowder

This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that

https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854

I’d never thought I’d suggest this, but there is a point where you begin to wonder whether the solution that Edward Heath rejected in Northern Ireland might be the best option

Tres · February 22

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.

meanwhile everyone i speak to in america knows someone who works for an obscure government department that has just been unjustly fired

MarqueeMark · February 22

Nigelb said:
Net Approval of Trump's Handling of the Economy:

January 26: +4%
February 18: -8%

- Ipsos -
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1893073177107923098

Musk's numbers have plummeted far more.

Scott_xP · February 22

DavidL said:
What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

There may be a complex Geopolitical framework in which the actions of Trump/Musk et al make sense, but there is much simpler explanation

They are white supremacist criminals, whose agenda is to enrich themselves at the expense of others.

I don't really think it's any more complicated than that.

FF43 · February 22

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

Richard_Tyndall · February 22

CD13 said:
What's the worst that Trump can do? Think Don Corleone on a bad day. How does Vance compare? Does anyone know?

After Trump won in November I had initially switched to a position that I hoped he would survive his term because he was/is a self serving buffoon but at least he didn't have the crazed ideological beliefs that have been seen in his VP. Now I am not so sure. Trump has been so utterly awful in the last month that I am wondering if Vance could actually be any worse and that maybe Vance's position on many issues, expecially foreign affairs, might be more nuanced and palatable.

I will never advocate political violence but I am starting to hope that all those years of bad diet and self abuse bring about a sudden end to the Trump presidency.

Malmesbury · February 22

Scott_xP said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
I really hope Starmer in the end will decide not to offer a state visit to Trump .
SKS doesn't exactly have a lot else to offer does he? It's never something for nothing with DJT.
The Open at Turnberry.
Trump would have to be able to enter and cameras off as his caddy kicks his ball out of bunkers etc.

A golf pro friend visits the US fairly regularly and met someone who plays with Trump occasionally; he says the cheating thing is accurate though at that level of rich guy golf it's not uncommon. The big tips for caddies are for 'helping' your player with ball tampering rather than club selection.
I wish Trump was playing more golf. I feel like during his bitter interregnum he was concerned if he never got back in power one he'd go to prison, but two he would not have a good enough legacy as president. So he wants to ride the world hard and leave a mark.
@RpsAgainstTrump

Trump accused federal workers of playing golf—after spending Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday on the course himself.

You can’t make this shit up.

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1892459440541970942

Wrong.

You can make this shit up. Trump does, on a minute by minute basis.

Scott_xP · February 22

FF43 said:
When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.

Theuniondivvie · February 22

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

The thing about self interest though is that the USA pumped Europe full of airbases, armoured divisions and the expensive products of their military-industrial complex for decades largely out of self interest, not selflessness. Their perception may have been mistaken but the idea that it was the boundless generosity of an altruistic USA is for the birds and the lying rsoles of the Trump GOP.

kle4 · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
That’s rubbish. I wonder if we all have to stop biting our tongues and flood the zone. Normally it’s just not worth it, but being polite and/or holding back has led to this place.

I wonder if we could make it necessary to put some kind of guardrails on social media. A one pound fee to join might stop the bots.
I find it particularly difficult because of course there are elements of the overall anti-establishment position that I have long supported. For many years I was in lockstep with my friends and relations on issue like Brexit and the need for a smaller State. Classically Libertarian positions which I still maintain. But there came a point at the time of the first Trump election, and ever increasing with the anti-Ukraine stuff that has bubbled away on the Right ever since the Invasion, where I could no longer agree with many of these people. Sadly some of my family and friends have been unable to discriminate between positions on individual issues and the overall 'movement'. For them it is all or nothing. Hence the fracture.

I have been fortunate that I have been offshore almost continuously since the inauguration so have not had to face these people across the dinner table. I find myself looking for excuses to continue that distancing as I would not want a permanent rift with family members or decades old friends.

All or nothing, the everything ideology, appears to have gotten stronger due to online tribalism. Id have assumed people would split more but instead we seem to get people under more pressure to conform and so things that are not prerequisites for an ideology being treated as if integral. See it on left and right.

StillWaters · February 22

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:
What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.
There may be a complex Geopolitical framework in which the actions of Trump/Musk et al make sense, but there is much simpler explanation

They are white supremacist criminals, whose agenda is to enrich themselves at the expense of others.

I don't really think it's any more complicated than that.

Think about it as one of those old movies where to local mob controls the town because they have the police chief in their pocket. And make it bigger.

StillWaters · February 22

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

The thing about self interest though is that the USA pumped Europe full of airbases, armoured divisions and the expensive
products of their military-industrial complex for decades largely out of self interest, not
selflessness. Their perception may have
been mistaken but the idea that it was the
boundless generosity of an altruistic USA is
for the birds and the lying rsoles of the
Trump GOP.

To be fair, it was mutual self interest with the Europeans in favour as well

Malmesbury · February 22

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple

kle4 · February 22

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

Some things are weaker even if you put them back together.

When the Restoration happened here it was still with the context of killing a king and ruling without one, and that had to be in the backs if everyone's minds even though for a time they could pretend to reset.

People cannot assume Trump's damage can be fixed. He's trying to reshape how government works, and probably will even where its not with the end goal he wants.

Scott_xP · February 22

StillWaters said:

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:
What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.
There may be a complex Geopolitical framework in which the actions of Trump/Musk et al make sense, but there is much simpler explanation

They are white supremacist criminals, whose agenda is to enrich themselves at the expense of others.

I don't really think it's any more complicated than that.
Think about it as one of those old movies where to local mob controls the town because they have the police chief in their pocket. And make it bigger.

But who is going to play the part of the stranger that drifts into town and takes them down?

nico67 · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

CD13 said:
What's the worst that Trump can do? Think Don Corleone on a bad day. How does Vance compare? Does anyone know?
After Trump won in November I had initially switched to a position that I hoped he would survive his term because he was/is a self serving buffoon but at least he didn't have the crazed ideological beliefs that have been seen in his VP. Now I am not so sure. Trump has been so utterly awful in the last month that I am wondering if Vance could actually be any worse and that maybe Vance's position on many issues, expecially foreign affairs, might be more nuanced and palatable.

I will never advocate political violence but I am starting to hope that all those years of bad diet and self abuse bring about a sudden end to the Trump presidency.

I agree re political violence but even that position I find is beginning to strain . I have been very heartened though by the response of the vast majority of members in here.

Stuartinromford · February 22

Scott_xP said:

FF43 said:
When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?
Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.

That may be Team Trump's intention. Hell, all politicians tell themselves that their legacy is permanent.

Often the remarkable thing is how quickly normality can re-establish. Consider Germany after 1945.

kle4 · February 22

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

The thing about self interest though is that the USA pumped Europe full of airbases, armoured divisions and the expensive products of their military-industrial complex for decades largely out of self interest, not selflessness. Their perception may have been mistaken but the idea that it was the boundless generosity of an altruistic USA is for the birds and the lying rsoles of the Trump GOP.

Yes, its like they think they got nothing out of that because there's no dollar in their pocket.

Dura_Ace · February 22

Richard_Tyndall said:

CD13 said:
What's the worst that Trump can do? Think Don Corleone on a bad day. How does Vance compare? Does anyone know?
After Trump won in November I had initially switched to a position that I hoped he would survive his term because he was/is a self serving buffoon but at least he didn't have the crazed ideological beliefs that have been seen in his VP. Now I am not so sure. Trump has been so utterly awful in the last month that I am wondering if Vance could actually be any worse and that maybe Vance's position on many issues, expecially foreign affairs, might be more nuanced and palatable.

I will never advocate political violence but I am starting to hope that all those years of bad diet and self abuse bring about a sudden end to the Trump presidency.

If we're wishing death on people, which is something I do on the reg and am therefore qualified to comment, it's Musk's money that's keeping Congress cowed with the threat of primaries.

Locking Luigi up was a terrible error.

Northern_Al · February 22

Somebody needs to tell England that this is a 50-over game, not a 20-over game.

kle4 · February 22

Boy the world is depressing at the moment. I think ill take a walk then watch the Samwise Gamgee speech from the end of the Two Towers to try to boost my optimism.

But ill probably just end up seeing Trump as Saruman and Sauron as Putin or something. Damn Tolkein and his applicability vs allegory.

FrancisUrquhart · February 22

Northern_Al said:
Somebody needs to tell England that this is a 50-over game, not a 20-over game.

Good job England bat deep.....

Eabhal · February 22

Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

HYUFD · February 22

CD13 said:
What's the worst that Trump can do? Think Don Corleone on a bad day. How does Vance compare? Does anyone know?

Trump isn't intelligent enough to be a Don or Michael Corleone, he is basically a fatter Sonny.

Vance and Musk are however

DavidL · February 22

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple

A key lesson for all prosecutors everywhere.

Nigelb · February 22

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:
Net Approval of Trump's Handling of the Economy:

January 26: +4%
February 18: -8%

- Ipsos -
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1893073177107923098
Musk's numbers have plummeted far more.

Well yes, but Trump can probably cut him loose when they get too bad.
You can’t do the same with the economy.

Theuniondivvie · February 22

Eabhal said:
Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

Rewatching The Last of Us atm, excellent and a little under appreciated I feel. Certainly doesn't do much for my much diminished supplies of optimism.

Dopermean · February 22

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:
See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple
A key lesson for all prosecutors everywhere.

Is it not just the US legal system is useless? Capable of prosecuting little people but not robust enough to prosecute the powerful.

StillWaters · February 22

Scott_xP said:

StillWaters said:

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:
What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.
There may be a complex Geopolitical framework in which the actions of Trump/Musk et al make sense, but there is much simpler explanation

They are white supremacist criminals, whose agenda is to enrich themselves at the expense of others.

I don't really think it's any more complicated than that.
Think about it as one of those old movies where to local mob controls the town because they have the police chief in their pocket. And make it bigger.

But who is going to play the part of the stranger that drifts into town and takes them down?

That was the proposal made to Edward Heath.

HYUFD · February 22

stodge said:
Afternoon all from a thundery Singapore

Fair to say the Chinese “live fire” exercises in the Tasman have alarmed both Australia and New Zealand and both Governments are using the incident as justification to increase defence spending.

In truth, the Chinese were doing nothing wrong as they were in international waters and NZ Defence Minister Judith Collin’s admitted both Australia and New Zealand had done the same in the South China Sea but this projection of power by Beijing reminds us the new global disorder is multi-faceted.

With Beijing diplomatically very active in the Southwest Pacific currently, both Canberra and Wellington are feeling fragile given the sense Washington is no longer the ally it was and with the European powers coming to terms with the new US-Russian rapprochement and its implications.

Though the US is still focused on contacting China even if less so Russia

PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com

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