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Oh dear, oh dear – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730

    https://x.com/rosslydall/status/1892244674913464526

    The unemployment rate in London has risen to 6.1% - the highest in the country.
    More than 350,000 Londoners are receiving unemployment benefits.

    It really is the 1930s again, right down to our own blackshirts.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,414
    Foxy said:

    Essentially our war plan in 1939 was to rerun WW1. Halt the Germans with fortifications and blockade them into defeat. It was a very poor plan.

    It did not turn out well. And yet for all we think of the second war as vastly different from the first, if you look at how the British in particular fought, it was very much in the style perfected in late 1917 and 1918. Huge preponderance of guns, generally surprise in attack, limited bite and hold tactics, knowing that the Germans always, always counter attack.
    And in terms of casualties the rate of loss from June 6th 1944 to the end of the war was as bad or worse than the 1914-1918 average. It’s just that we only kept small armies in the field for most of the war fighting round the edges.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Dura_Ace said:

    Worthless analysis.

    There's no more capacity to build more ships in the UK.

    Wessex went out of service in 2003.

    Tempest won't be anything until 2040 (if ever) so if the need is as pressing as the Russophobe neurotics would have us believe then that has to go in the bin for more Typhoon.

    If the government really wants to upgrade defence capability, it needs to start with a consideration of the people (not "men"). Work out what levels it can get to in each specialty at various levels of expenditure. Eg extra 5bn/year gets you another 20 FJ pilots, 100 sonar techs, etc. Then buy the amount of hardware commensurate to match the people. Starting with the hardware and working back is facile.
    Can you still get in your uniform? Nail the letterbox shut if I were you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,788
    The US may be done with the F35, anyway.

    New Hegseth memo we obtained on Fy 2026-Fydp 8% alignment lists 17 exemptions to reductions. The Pentagon's biggest program, the F 35, is not one of them..
    https://x.com/ACapaccio/status/1892311396362203420
  • Arieh Kovler
    @ariehkovler
    ·
    1h
    Like, at a certain point you've gotta change the name. Once the White House is publishing images of King Donald in a crown and robe while he says "Long Live the King", it's probably time to think of a better name than the Republican Party.

    There's a tradition of names that are the inverse of what you actually believe in.

    People's Democratic Republic led by monarchical authoritarians with no people power.

    Holy Roman Empire that is neither Holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire.

    Today's Republican Party is following in that ignoble tradition.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,863

    Kemi tweets that Starmer should “get on a plane to Washington.”

    Reader, Starmer is just about to get on a plane to Washington.

    Has he any guarantee he'll be able to get one back?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,608
    Winchy said:

    Could there be a PB Prediction Competition where everyone picks an outcome to which they think they'd assign a much higher probability than everyone else would?

    E.g. if somebody feels the RoC and PRC will reunify peacefully by the end of the year, or that Trump will be impeached, convicted, and jailed, they might choose that.

    Reformulating slightly, I think I am probably the only person here who thinks there's a greater than 20% chance Starmer will be widely remembered and recognised as our greatest PM since Churchill.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,408

    Kemi tweets that Starmer should “get on a plane to Washington.”

    Reader, Starmer is just about to get on a plane to Washington.

    That’s Opposition 101. If you tell someone to do something they are doing then it looks like you’re setting the agenda.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    edited February 19

    It did not turn out well. And yet for all we think of the second war as vastly different from the first, if you look at how the British in particular fought, it was very much in the style perfected in late 1917 and 1918. Huge preponderance of guns, generally surprise in attack, limited bite and hold tactics, knowing that the Germans always, always counter attack.
    And in terms of casualties the rate of loss from June 6th 1944 to the end of the war was as bad or worse than the 1914-1918 average. It’s just that we only kept small armies in the field for most of the war fighting round the edges.
    Monty was really a very good WW1 General. In a set-piece battle like El Alamein or D-Day he was the consumate planner of a combined arms attritional battle.

    It was fast moving battles of mobile columns that were beyond him.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,218
    biggles said:

    Can you still get in your uniform? Nail the letterbox shut if I were you.
    Not a carnist or piss artist so I still weigh the same as I did when was 18.

    I'd certainly go, if called, but it seems unlikely at 57. I don't give a fuck about Ukraine but I do quite like being in wars.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,408
    Foxy said:

    It really is the 1930s again, right down to our own blackshirts.
    London having the highest unemployment rate in the country is a very inconvenient fact for people who believe in immigration-driven growth.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Foxy said:

    Monty was really a very good WW1 General. In a set-piece battle like El Alamein or D-Day he was the consulate planner of a combined arms attritional battle.

    It was fast moving battles of mobility that were beyond him.
    He did also get the short straw post-Normandy. Caen was a tough nut to crack.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730

    That’s Opposition 101. If you tell someone to do something they are doing then it looks like you’re setting the agenda.
    Anyone thinking that Kemi is setting the agenda has lost contact with reality. She is obsessing about bathrooms.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,255

    That’s Opposition 101. If you tell someone to do something they are doing then it looks like you’re setting the agenda.
    In which case it might have had more salience if she’d come up with it before it was widely trailed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    edited February 19
    Foxy said:

    Anyone thinking that Kemi is setting the agenda has lost contact with reality. She is obsessing about bathrooms.
    I don't think whether she successfully looks like she's setting the agenda disputes that it is a standard opposition tactic to push for something already happening in the hopes that you can look like you are setting the agenda.
  • That’s Opposition 101. If you tell someone to do something they are doing then it looks like you’re setting the agenda.
    Only if you call for it before its announced. Calling for something you expect to be announced and then it is, can be a bit of gamesmanship.

    Starmer's trip to Washington was announced days ago. Calling for it now is not setting the agenda.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,005
    The Tennessee Holler
    @TheTNHoller
    ·
    37m
    QUINNIPIAC POLL:

    -Trump’s Gaza takeover is wildly unpopular (22-62)

    -Trusting Putin even more unpopular (9-81)

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/1892323036419789238
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,236

    Noted. I still don't think anyone can claim that 'we' (meaning the West) 'didn't push anything'.
    Hmm the West picked sides, and seems to have supported the side that the majority of Ukrainians also supported. This may have been a mistake, but it's not the same as the USA 'taking control over the politics of Ukraine', is it?


  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,165

    Kemi tweets that Starmer should “get on a plane to Washington.”

    Reader, Starmer is just about to get on a plane to Washington.

    See, look how powerful Kemi is! Forcing Starmer into action!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,379
    @joshgerstein

    JUST IN: MTA took about 7 seconds to file suit over Trump administration's decision to revoke permission for Manhattan congestion tolls. Doc:

    https://x.com/joshgerstein/status/1892327063379394793
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    biggles said:

    He did also get the short straw post-Normandy. Caen was a tough nut to crack.
    It was a bit typical though. Patton completely out did him in Sicily, then again in the Normandy breakout, then again at the battle of the Bulge, and again in March 45 streaming into Germany.

    As an individual Patton was a shit, but he really got it with mobile warfare.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    The Tennessee Holler
    @TheTNHoller
    ·
    37m
    QUINNIPIAC POLL:

    -Trump’s Gaza takeover is wildly unpopular (22-62)

    -Trusting Putin even more unpopular (9-81)

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/1892323036419789238

    Meaningless. The latter cannot be changed, and the actions arising from it have already begun.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,005
    Foxy said:

    Putin should ask Trump to bring cakes to the next meeting, purely to take the piss.
    You bring the cakes, I'll bring the old photographs I have.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,804
    rkrkrk said:

    Reformulating slightly, I think I am probably the only person here who thinks there's a greater than 20% chance Starmer will be widely remembered and recognised as our greatest PM since Churchill.
    I'm with you on that one. Several European leaders + a few others have been handed a truly scary opportunity to be something more than just another leader. Of all the people available in UK politics Starmer is in the top few for the part. (Others: Cameron, Brown, Lord Robertson, Blair. But at this moment most top politicians look less capable than Lear's fool for the part. Jenrick? Kemi? There is a joker/wild card in the pack called Boris.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,975

    https://x.com/rosslydall/status/1892244674913464526

    The unemployment rate in London has risen to 6.1% - the highest in the country.
    More than 350,000 Londoners are receiving unemployment benefits.

    Maybe they can join the British Army
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005

    Only if you call for it before its announced. Calling for something you expect to be announced and then it is, can be a bit of gamesmanship.

    Starmer's trip to Washington was announced days ago. Calling for it now is not setting the agenda.
    Well exactly. She could have called for far more than the governement is doing to put pressure on them when we know Labour will have to go further and will have to take the pain of doing so in a way the opposition will not. As it is, Starmer can simply point out he said he'd do these things before.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Corbyn must be very confused. He agrees with Trump.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    algarkirk said:

    I'm with you on that one. Several European leaders + a few others have been handed a truly scary opportunity to be something more than just another leader. Of all the people available in UK politics Starmer is in the top few for the part. (Others: Cameron, Brown, Lord Robertson, Blair. But at this moment most top politicians look less capable than Lear's fool for the part. Jenrick? Kemi? There is a joker/wild card in the pack called Boris.)
    Can we have Benn in as Foreign Secretary? Lammy can have any promotion he wants to get out. Chancellor?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,287
    .

    Kemi tweets that Starmer should “get on a plane to Washington.”

    Reader, Starmer is just about to get on a plane to Washington.

    She needs to get the boot ASAP. We need competent opposition and government.
  • biggles said:

    Corbyn must be very confused. He agrees with Trump.

    Not at all for the first time.

    Its horseshoe theory again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    edited February 19
    biggles said:

    Corbyn must be very confused. He agrees with Trump.

    Makes total sense to me, so he shouldn't be confused.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005
    Foxy said:

    Monty was really a very good WW1 General. In a set-piece battle like El Alamein or D-Day he was the consumate planner of a combined arms attritional battle.

    It was fast moving battles of mobile columns that were beyond him.
    Weirdly I was reading his memoirs in the pub with a library bar the other day while waiting for a friend and was far more unassuming and self-deprecating than would expect. Although only got through his childhood
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,398
    kamski said:

    Hmm the West picked sides, and seems to have supported the side that the majority of Ukrainians also supported. This may have been a mistake, but it's not the same as the USA 'taking control over the politics of Ukraine', is it?

    It is an indisputable fact that the USA took control over the politics of Ukraine. As I said before, the Secretary of State is recorded having a whole conversation about who they are going to involve in the political leadership of Ukraine.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8&pp=ygUQRnVjayB0aGUgZXUgdGFwZQ==

    Listen to the conversation.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,005
    Aaron Rupar‬ ‪@atrupar.com‬
    ·
    29m
    Chris Murphy: "My prediction is that if you vote for Kash Patel, more than any other confirmation vote you make, you will come to regret this one to your grave."
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,293

    The Tennessee Holler
    @TheTNHoller
    ·
    37m
    QUINNIPIAC POLL:

    -Trump’s Gaza takeover is wildly unpopular (22-62)

    -Trusting Putin even more unpopular (9-81)

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/1892323036419789238

    Let us hope that US public opinion will have some impact. Trump has bent to public opinion before.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,796
    glw said:

    .

    She needs to get the boot ASAP. We need competent opposition and government.
    I'm pretty sure James Cleverly would have pitched his response right. He also looks like a plausible leader should his time come.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,005
    biggles said:

    Can we have Benn in as Foreign Secretary? Lammy can have any promotion he wants to get out. Chancellor?
    The forthcoming War Cabinet will probably have William Hague as Foreign Office.
  • Not at all for the first time.

    Its horseshoe theory again.
    BJO must be very confused as well, given Trump's stated plans for Gaza.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,414
    biggles said:

    He did also get the short straw post-Normandy. Caen was a tough nut to crack.
    biggles said:

    He did also get the short straw post-Normandy. Caen was a tough nut to crack.
    To be fair, Overlord was Monty’s plan, and thus he chose to take on the bulk of the Wehrmacht, and the armoured divisions (always expected at the Eastern extent of the invasion as closest to Germany/the Pas de Calais.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,408
    Musk on cartels being designated terrorist organisations:

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1892288041894465657

    That means they’re eligible for drone strikes
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,937

    Maybe they can join the British Army
    That would require an awful lot of investment in DEI. Based on unemployments stats, your typical squaddie should be a girl from Yorkshire from a Pakistani background.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202
    Dura_Ace said:

    Not a carnist or piss artist so I still weigh the same as I did when was 18.

    I'd certainly go, if called, but it seems unlikely at 57. I don't give a fuck about Ukraine but I do quite like being in wars.
    Bothered much about which side?
  • BJO must be very confused as well, given Trump's stated plans for Gaza.
    You think BJO gives a shit about Gazans?

    Putin and Trump could work together to level Gaza and drive every last person out of the land and BJO would just shrug.

    BJO doesn't care about Gaza, he hates Israel. The two are only remotely connected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    geoffw said:
    I'd be surprised if the cherry tree myth is well known in the UK, but like me enough will have picked it up from american TV shows?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202
    I'm very curious as to what the senior military and intelligence staff must be thinking. They may have voted for Trump. But when their entire careers have at best been to be very wary of Russia, at worst have seen it as the enemy they have trained to defeat - how must they feel when to all intents and purposes, their Commander in Chief has changed sides?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,332
    Eabhal said:

    That would require an awful lot of investment in DEI. Based on unemployments stats, your typical squaddie should be a girl from Yorkshire from a Pakistani background.
    That might actually be good for her. Well... except for the getting shot at part.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited February 19
    BJO cares about the revolution, brother. As such any defeat for the national interest is good news.

    Food for thought, this is also true if you support Reform. Revolutionary left or right, they’re two cheeks of the same backside.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,005

    I'm very curious as to what the senior military and intelligence staff must be thinking. They may have voted for Trump. But when their entire careers have at best been to be very wary of Russia, at worst have seen it as the enemy they have trained to defeat - how must they feel when to all intents and purposes, their Commander in Chief has changed sides?

    Exactly what I have been thinking today.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,005
    kle4 said:

    I'd be surprised if the cherry tree myth is well known in the UK, but like me enough will have picked it up from american TV shows?
    We were told it at school.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,731
    edited February 19
    Trump just wants to be loved and worshipped in the USA - he couldn't give a toss what outsiders think about him.
    His judgement is that most Americans couldn't give a flying fuck about Ukraine, and are only vaguely aware of where it is.
    Sadly, he's probably right.
  • kle4 said:

    I don't think whether she successfully looks like she's setting the agenda disputes that it is a standard opposition tactic to push for something already happening in the hopes that you can look like you are setting the agenda.
    That worked for the 1960s/1970s Liberal Party in urban areas, but when everyone has access to the internet, not so clever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    I'm very curious as to what the senior military and intelligence staff must be thinking. They may have voted for Trump. But when their entire careers have at best been to be very wary of Russia, at worst have seen it as the enemy they have trained to defeat - how must they feel when to all intents and purposes, their Commander in Chief has changed sides?

    I imagine they will be thinking the country crossed the rubicon voting, eyes open and with reasonable foreknowledge, about what Trump would do, and that requires changing all their career presumptions.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Exactly what I have been thinking today.

    Unless you think that there's any chance of them staging a coup then it matters not a jot.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,293
    More US government staff sacked and then hurriedly re-hired. This time it's staff of a veterans' crisis line: https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-news-doge-musk-02-19-25#cm7c1lstd00053b6mgbvcwkzk
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    That worked for the 1960s/1970s Liberal Party in urban areas, but when everyone has access to the internet, not so clever.
    Definitely harder to pull off, to be sure, like saying different things in different parts of the country (I've read before the Canadians had an equivalent of saying one thing in English and something slightly different in French).
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130
    edited February 19
    Who will go first and say this is such a grave emergency that the US constitution must be put in the bin for an, ahem, short while? Will it be MAGAmusk or will it be the sanies? Both sides seem to be moving in that direction. I'm pro-sanie and wouldn't have a big problem with the CIA bringing down Air Force One or the US military stepping into the White House and saying this is where it stops, you fucker. I'm getting the impression that many other pro-sanies feel likewise, from various different positions within pro-sanieism.

    Interesting times. And of course the developments in the USA benefit both Russia and China. I am anti-Zelensky and anti-NATO and think the 6 territories should be in Russia, but that doesn't stop me from believing it to be highly likely that Trump is Russian property. The weakening of the USA caused by the binning of the constitution in that country would benefit the elites in the EU and Britain too, if their heads weren't structurally so far up the USA's bum. Windsor Davies applies.

    Has what used to be "the West" now entered the period of being Upper Volta with missiles?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    edited February 19

    We were told it at school.
    I certainly wasn't, we weren't taught anything about the early days of the USA (come to think of it I don't think we got taught anything at all about the USA, until A level when there was a choice of 19th century russian history or the USA civil rights movement - I did the former as Tsars are more interesting).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    Trump just wants to be loved and worshipped in the USA - he couldn't give a toss what outsiders think about him.
    His judgement is that most Americans couldn't give a flying fuck about Ukraine, and are only vaguely aware of where it is.
    Sadly, he's probably right.

    Might be some futile last gasp outrage from the dying embers of former GOP officialdom, but the voting public will presumably already be looking at the midterms and economic matters.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,236

    It is an indisputable fact that the USA took control over the politics of Ukraine. As I said before, the Secretary of State is recorded having a whole conversation about who they are going to involve in the political leadership of Ukraine.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8&pp=ygUQRnVjayB0aGUgZXUgdGFwZQ==

    Listen to the conversation.

    I have listened to it.
    Transcript is here for people who don't want to go to youtube:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

    It's not an 'indisputable fact'. Just because the US might have had preferences among those they regarded as big players is not the same as them 'taking control over the politics of Ukraine' is it? Do you see that?

    Or do you have some actual evidence of the USA taking control of the politics of Ukraine?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202

    To be fair, Overlord was Monty’s plan, and thus he chose to take on the bulk of the Wehrmacht, and the armoured divisions (always expected at the Eastern extent of the invasion as closest to Germany/the Pas de Calais.
    As I look out my bedroom window at rolling Devon hills, behind the nearest one is Sheplegh Court, occupied by Eisenhower during the latter stages of WW2. Churchill and Monty would join him there to plan the invasion of France. It was in the middle of the area evacuated for training for the landings at Normandy. Very secure. My house was taken over by American officers and it is likely Eisenhower and maybe others would have visited, such is the vista for training exercises.

    Such was the extent of live fire exercises here, many of the trees are still a challenge to cut down with chainsaws, so numerous are the bullets contained within their trunks.

    (Sheplegh Court later became a nudist hotel of some notoriety.)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Trump just wants to be loved and worshipped in the USA - he couldn't give a toss what outsiders think about him.
    His judgement is that most Americans couldn't give a flying fuck about Ukraine, and are only vaguely aware of where it is.
    Sadly, he's probably right.

    The plan is, presumably, to slash and burn the American state as quickly as possible, so that he can buy the voters' love by implementing big tax cuts? Also, the Putin fellatio has the added benefit of bringing Russian oil back to market, which might help to slightly lower those gas prices about which most American consumers are obsessed. God alone knows whether it'll work, though there's a non-negligible chance that Trump plans to ensure he gets his third term through a combination of ballot rigging and a puppet Supreme Court to reinterpret the Constitution in any case.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    rkrkrk said:

    Reformulating slightly, I think I am probably the only person here who thinks there's a greater than 20% chance Starmer will be widely remembered and recognised as our greatest PM since Churchill.
    I said Trump would be too crazily bad to survive his term. That was niche but now probably not so much.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    kle4 said:

    Might be some futile last gasp outrage from the dying embers of former GOP officialdom, but the voting public will presumably already be looking at the midterms and economic matters.
    They might not be too rosy, with 200 000 job losses expected in next month's figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,788
    Marco Rubio was, up until recently, chairman of the Senate intel committee. As such, he signed a letter addressed to President Biden about the GRU being responsible for attacks on Americans. Now he says there are "incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians [geopolitically and economically]."
    https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1891943589128642711
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,863
    Was a very sad interview on WATO yesterday.
    With a US soldier who is fighting for Ukraine.
    It was clear that he'd voted for Trump and was in despair at the sellout...
    Just the same as Trump had done to the Kurds when he'd fought with them.
    Fool me once.
  • More US government staff sacked and then hurriedly re-hired. This time it's staff of a veterans' crisis line: https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-news-doge-musk-02-19-25#cm7c1lstd00053b6mgbvcwkzk

    I'm curious as to the details of the mechanism for all this.

    Are they actually made redundant with redundancy pay and then have to be recruited again - wouldn't the worker demand a bonus just for re-joining ? After all they might have lost employment rights from being classed now as a new starter.

    Or are workers merely being sent home on risk of redundancy, the risk being rapidly ended.
  • Nigelb said:

    Marco Rubio was, up until recently, chairman of the Senate intel committee. As such, he signed a letter addressed to President Biden about the GRU being responsible for attacks on Americans. Now he says there are "incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians [geopolitically and economically]."
    https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1891943589128642711

    It's all a bit Molotov-Ribbentrop...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,796
    edited February 19

    Trump just wants to be loved and worshipped in the USA - he couldn't give a toss what outsiders think about him.
    His judgement is that most Americans couldn't give a flying fuck about Ukraine, and are only vaguely aware of where it is.
    Sadly, he's probably right.

    In principle and for any previous president it would be the establishment, not the electorate, that would push the president in a particular policy direction. They might actually care a lot about Ukraine. But I'm not sure the establishment has any influence now. America has gone into a Maoist style Cultural Revolution.
  • The Tennessee Holler
    @TheTNHoller
    ·
    37m
    QUINNIPIAC POLL:

    -Trump’s Gaza takeover is wildly unpopular (22-62)

    -Trusting Putin even more unpopular (9-81)

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/1892323036419789238

    Americans want higher wages, lower prices and immigration controlled.

    They're not interested in Trump's imperialist fantasies.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,444
    edited February 19
    dixiedean said:

    Was a very sad interview on WATO yesterday.
    With a US soldier who is fighting for Ukraine.
    It was clear that he'd voted for Trump and was in despair at the sellout...
    Just the same as Trump had done to the Kurds when he'd fought with them.
    Fool me once.

    Or indeed Biden to the Afghanis or Obama to the Syrians or Nixon to the South Vietnamese or Eisenhower to us over Suez.

    Betraying allies when you don't have to is a bipartisan tradition in America.

    They get away with it because most Americans barely know where Abroad is, let alone who their allies are.
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130
    edited February 19
    biggles said:

    Corbyn must be very confused. He agrees with Trump.

    Don't you agree with Trump about anything? I mean if you just saw 10 statements about different policy areas and forgot why he was making them... Or with Putin for that matter.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Americans want higher wages, lower prices and immigration controlled.

    They're not interested in Trump's imperialist fantasies.
    Which also means that most of them don't care about what happens anywhere else, so long as they have a dollar a week more to spend. The Yanks don't care whether we or the French or the Canadians live or die, let alone the Ukrainians.

    How Trump is received will depend on whether the humongous tax cuts he's trying to finance by gutting the state offer more benefit than any damage the economy takes from his trade wars, or that voters may suffer from the cancellation of federal programs and grants. End of.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974

    London having the highest unemployment rate in the country is a very inconvenient fact for people who believe in immigration-driven growth.
    London also has one of the highest employment rates in the country, with 75.8% of 16 to 64 year olds employed.

    You could make the case that people in other parts of the country are either sick, or so discouraged by the lack of prospects that they have left the workforce.

    Why do you think London has such a high employment rate?
  • London having the highest unemployment rate in the country is a very inconvenient fact for people who believe in immigration-driven growth.
    The current unemployment numbers per parliamentary constituency are here:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Unemployment effectively now exists only in the inner cities.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    Scott_xP said:

    @joshgerstein

    JUST IN: MTA took about 7 seconds to file suit over Trump administration's decision to revoke permission for Manhattan congestion tolls. Doc:

    https://x.com/joshgerstein/status/1892327063379394793

    I genuinely wish there were principled politicians who actually believed in States rights.

    The congestion charge is popular in New York, where it has successfully got the traffic moving. Why Trump feels the need to overrule local democracy is beyond me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202

    Americans want higher wages, lower prices and immigration controlled.

    They're not interested in Trump's imperialist fantasies.
    And those working building US weapons they could be selling in huge numbers to Ukraine? Those making Patriot batteries and the missiles they fire? Those refurbishing tanks and apc's that would otherwise be scrapped? There is a fortune to be made out of Ukraine by American workers. Anybody asking them?
  • pigeon said:

    Which also means that most of them don't care about what happens anywhere else, so long as they have a dollar a week more to spend. The Yanks don't care whether we or the French or the Canadians live or die, let alone the Ukrainians.

    How Trump is received will depend on whether the humongous tax cuts he's trying to finance by gutting the state offer more benefit than any damage the economy takes from his trade wars, or that voters may suffer from the cancellation of federal programs and grants. End of.
    The people who benefit most from any Trump tax cuts are likely to be concentrated very narrowly.

    The people who will suffer various negative effects are likely to be much more widespread.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    Dura_Ace said:

    Worthless analysis.

    There's no more capacity to build more ships in the UK.

    Wessex went out of service in 2003.

    Tempest won't be anything until 2040 (if ever) so if the need is as pressing as the Russophobe neurotics would have us believe then that has to go in the bin for more Typhoon.

    If the government really wants to upgrade defence capability, it needs to start with a consideration of the people (not "men"). Work out what levels it can get to in each specialty at various levels of expenditure. Eg extra 5bn/year gets you another 20 FJ pilots, 100 sonar techs, etc. Then buy the amount of hardware commensurate to match the people. Starting with the hardware and working back is facile.
    You do know that it is possible for countries to start building ships? I mean, it may take a while, but it's not like it's some impossible skill that cannot be learned.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    My little insurance company just got a new customer called Jessica Jessop: any relation @JosiasJessop?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,863
    rcs1000 said:

    I genuinely wish there were principled politicians who actually believed in States rights.

    The congestion charge is popular in New York, where it has successfully got the traffic moving. Why Trump feels the need to overrule local democracy is beyond me.
    Cos he's the King and he's also a twat?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,287
    edited February 19

    Exactly what I have been thinking today.

    There is a very handy table, which ought to terrify any rational person, which shows what senior military leaders thought of him, many of them were in Trump's previous administration. These are not woke eco-warrior lefties, these are people who at least previously would have been Republican to their core.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-10-23/the-high-profile-military-leaders-who-have-come-out-against-donald-trump

    Every Trump supporter who dismissed their warnings should shut up and never speak again.
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130
    rcs1000 said:

    London also has one of the highest employment rates in the country, with 75.8% of 16 to 64 year olds employed.

    You could make the case that people in other parts of the country are either sick, or so discouraged by the lack of prospects that they have left the workforce.

    Why do you think London has such a high employment rate?
    On the assumption that both the numerator and the denominator for that figure are realistic, and in particular that they include illegals, I would say one factor is that if you're an illegal you're pretty well obliged to work to survive. Another is that there's high demand because the tower of finance capital on which the British economy is based is located in London.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Foxy said:

    They might not be too rosy, with 200 000 job losses expected in next month's figures.
    Does that include the ones Trump has summarily dismissed?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,444
    edited February 19

    The current unemployment numbers per parliamentary constituency are here:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Unemployment effectively now exists only in the inner cities.
    I don't think the unemployment figures tell the full story though.

    I think there's quite a bit of hidden unemployment - people off sick who aren't really, but will never work again, freelancers not getting any work, students studying pointless courses or just graduated but haven't signed on yet, people living off savings too high to qualify for benefit, etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,408
    rcs1000 said:

    London also has one of the highest employment rates in the country, with 75.8% of 16 to 64 year olds employed.

    You could make the case that people in other parts of the country are either sick, or so discouraged by the lack of prospects that they have left the workforce.

    Why do you think London has such a high employment rate?
    Fake news. The employment rate of 16-64 year olds in London is below the UK average, at 74.3% compared with 74.9% for the UK and 75.4% for England.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/latest
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    rcs1000 said:

    My little insurance company just got a new customer called Jessica Jessop: any relation @JosiasJessop?

    How's that client confidentiality programme going? ;-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    Winchy said:

    On the assumption that both the numerator and the denominator for that figure are realistic, and in particular that they include illegals, I would say one factor is that if you're an illegal you're pretty well obliged to work to survive. Another is that there's high demand because the tower of finance capital on which the British economy is based is located in London.
    I'm not being entirely serious: I'm just pointing out there are many ways to spin different numbers, and attempting to draw enormous conclusions from a single number for a single month is (at the very least) dangerously lazy thinking.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974

    Fake news. The employment rate of 16-64 year olds in London is below the UK average, at 74.3% compared with 74.9% for the UK and 75.4% for England.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/latest
    You are correct, I'm using old data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/november2024

  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130
    edited February 19

    I'm very curious as to what the senior military and intelligence staff must be thinking. They may have voted for Trump. But when their entire careers have at best been to be very wary of Russia, at worst have seen it as the enemy they have trained to defeat - how must they feel when to all intents and purposes, their Commander in Chief has changed sides?

    Or political science students addressing the question "What if the electorate elects a traitor as president?", which I hope they're being asked.
  • rcs1000 said:

    London also has one of the highest employment rates in the country, with 75.8% of 16 to 64 year olds employed.

    You could make the case that people in other parts of the country are either sick, or so discouraged by the lack of prospects that they have left the workforce.

    Why do you think London has such a high employment rate?
    It doesn't.

    Currently London has a 74.3% employment rate which is below the UK average and significantly lower than that of the rest of southern England:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/february2025

    What London does have is a greater proportion of its non-workers as unemployed as opposed to inactive.

    Which is likely caused by London's younger population profile - proportionally fewer 50-64s to be long term sick or early retirees.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,408
    rcs1000 said:

    You are correct, I'm using old data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/november2024

    Before the impact of Reeves' budget ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    rcs1000 said:

    You are correct, I'm using old data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/november2024

    Quite a turnaround in just four months: why do you think London has been so badly hammered in such a short period?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,937

    Fake news. The employment rate of 16-64 year olds in London is below the UK average, at 74.3% compared with 74.9% for the UK and 75.4% for England.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/latest
    How about after taking into account students?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,379
    rcs1000 said:

    I genuinely wish there were principled politicians who actually believed in States rights.

    The congestion charge is popular in New York, where it has successfully got the traffic moving. Why Trump feels the need to overrule local democracy is beyond me.
    He doesn't want to pay it
This discussion has been closed.