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Could the Tories have their sixth leader in six years? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,750
    Nigelb said:

    It’s in the North.
    We don’t invest there, because.
    'Why North England is poor'

    https://tomforth.co.uk/whynorthenglandispoor/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    edited February 16

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14394407/Vigilante-fathers-patrol-Birmingham-streets-arrests-teen-boy.html

    Vigilante fathers vow to patrol Birmingham streets and make 'citizens' arrests after teen boy stabbed to death and four women attacked
    I am not entirely sure your dystopian wet dream exists yet.

    Bad stuff happens in rural areas and generations of white men assaulting and raping young women and girls suggests such problems are not limited to one's colour.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    S

    I had some two months in hospital late 2022; two hospitals, one acute, one recuperation and, theoretically, physiotherapy.
    Food, according to my diet wasn't too bad, and served at reasonable times. Breakfast could be very hit-and-miss, though.
    When my father was in hospital, recently, the food was a waste of time. Since we trying to get him to eat, bought in home cooked as much as possible.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    Carnyx said:

    Tut - but then it wasn't just Annabella Goldie and her extra 1K polis that he signed up for to get the budget through. He had to negotiate with enough of other parties as well to get them to vote. The nature of minority gmt.

    That Labour refused then and since - on occasion nearly putting paid to the entire machinery of government when voting down a budget - was their decision.

    IIRC Slab again refused to take part one way or another in the last budget process. Just abstained.
    Will Slab ever accept that they don’t own Scotland? Unless they do they will remain an irrelevance.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612

    S

    When my father was in hospital, recently, the food was a waste of time. Since we trying to get him to eat, bought in home cooked as much as possible.
    I think there's decent evidence that bringing in home cooked food speeds recovery
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    edited February 16
    Nigelb said:

    It’s in the North.
    We don’t invest there, because.
    There is no dual carriage way to allow one to drive there, so it is impossible to assess the need for a dual carriageway.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    rkrkrk said:

    I think there's decent evidence that bringing in home cooked food speeds recovery
    I suppose that depends on who is doing the cooking.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Carnyx said:

    Ignorance. We have Waitrose in Edinburgh. Two, even. And they even send the cart round if you ask.
    I was thinking more of the void to the South of the village of Edunberg. Certainly when I investigated there appeared to be no evidence of Waitrose in the void, and indeed no evidence of Gail's anywhere North of Manchester.

    One would expect most of the Cabinet to avoid such remote and heathen places for fear of being captured and boiled in large pots. I doubt that the Civil Service know anything about what happens there, beyond perhaps the evidence contained within obscure medieval scrolls held in the British Library.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,138
    kle4 said:

    Had an acquaintance recently ticked off for writing something which they were told had the 'appearance' of AI generation. Doesn't seem like it was checked for it, but they were told to avoid AI-Generated hallmarks like being a bit vague and generic.

    I worry for my own unique output as a result, vague and generic are strong brands for me.
    Well, this is the big problem with AI. Not content being generated by AI, but the way that people will be falsely accused of having used AI by jealous people who aren't able to write successfully themselves.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    biggles said:

    There is no dual carriage way to allow one to drive there, so it is impossible to assess the need for a dual carriageway.
    There are no carriages. According to the Department of Transport there is some evidence that they have mastered the wheel, but have only so far advanced as far as the chariot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    5'8" so, no, not anorexic. Gone from BMI of 38 to 27.
    …………… 38??????

    😳

    Fucking hell

    But bravo on bringing that down to 27. That’s seriously impressive work, my dude

    👏
  • Leon said:

    …………… 38??????

    😳

    Fucking hell

    But bravo on bringing that down to 27. That’s seriously impressive work, my dude

    👏
    Thanks. No drugs or surgery, just a diet of the five important food groups: meat, cheese, eggs, milk and coffee.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    Carnyx said:

    Ignorance. We have Waitrose in Edinburgh. Two, even. And they even send the cart round if you ask.
    We can get a Waitrose delivery. The south doesn’t have all the advantages, though. They don’t have Booths!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    pigeon said:

    I was thinking more of the void to the South of the village of Edunberg. Certainly when I investigated there appeared to be no evidence of Waitrose in the void, and indeed no evidence of Gail's anywhere North of Manchester.

    One would expect most of the Cabinet to avoid such remote and heathen places for fear of being captured and boiled in large pots. I doubt that the Civil Service know anything about what happens there, beyond perhaps the evidence contained within obscure medieval scrolls held in the British Library.
    Edinburgh is one of those magical cities that appears from the mists once or twice a year isn’t it? It hosts hundreds of thousands of Englishmen for a month in August to see some theatre and then vanishes again until Hogmanay.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Thanks. No drugs or surgery, just a diet of the five important food groups: meat, cheese, eggs, milk and coffee.
    Do you know how/why your weight got so out of hand?

    You are under no obligation to answer. I’ve no desire to push buttons

    You should be on telly. That’s incredible weight loss, and without ozempic!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    pigeon said:

    I was thinking more of the void to the South of the village of Edunberg. Certainly when I investigated there appeared to be no evidence of Waitrose in the void, and indeed no evidence of Gail's anywhere North of Manchester.

    One would expect most of the Cabinet to avoid such remote and heathen places for fear of being captured and boiled in large pots. I doubt that the Civil Service know anything about what happens there, beyond perhaps the evidence contained within obscure medieval scrolls held in the British Library.
    Oh, so *that's* why they can't find a civil servant willing to move from London to act as a junior provincial procurator for oils in Obar Dheathain. Not enough rotten-fish sauce in the local market. And the oil is probably mutton fat anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    We can get a Waitrose delivery. The south doesn’t have all the advantages, though. They don’t have Booths!
    But, for "bath", do you say barth or bafh?
  • Leon said:

    Do you know how/why your weight got so out of hand?

    You are under no obligation to answer. I’ve no desire to push buttons

    You should be on telly. That’s incredible weight loss, and without ozempic!
    Thanks. I've long struggled with my weight, the last time I weighed what I do now was about 15 years ago. I was typically around 220 and would diet and get it close to 200 but never got it down below 200.

    I was always active despite being overweight so never too concerned. Lockdown was bad for my health. Went from doing upto 20k steps a day to sub 4k. That's when my weight went up to 252 and I struggled to get it back down again before I switched my diet.

    Despite it being rather American, I took a long time ago to weighing in pounds alone. Easier to keep track using that as a decimal rather than messing around with stone conversions, and easier to notice differences when dieting than dealing with kg.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    But, for "bath", do you say barth or bafh?
    Baith.
  • rkrkrk said:

    I think there's decent evidence that bringing in home cooked food speeds recovery
    But not sandwiches left to go mouldy in a drawer, which will spread infection.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    Carnyx said:

    Ignorance. We have Waitrose in Edinburgh. Two, even. And they even send the cart round if you ask.
    The North has Booths, which makes Waitrose look common.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited February 16

    Thanks. I've long struggled with my weight, the last time I weighed what I do now was about 15 years ago. I was typically around 220 and would diet and get it close to 200 but never got it down below 200.

    I was always active despite being overweight so never too concerned. Lockdown was bad for my health. Went from doing upto 20k steps a day to sub 4k. That's when my weight went up to 252 and I struggled to get it back down again before I switched my diet.

    Despite it being rather American, I took a long time ago to weighing in pounds alone. Easier to keep track using that as a decimal rather than messing around with stone conversions, and easier to notice differences when dieting than dealing with kg.
    Interesting, ta. And yes I agree on “pounds”. Best measure
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    rkrkrk said:

    I think there's decent evidence that bringing in home cooked food speeds recovery
    Given there is a danger the patient might eat, and the large amount of evidence that eating food prevents death….

    In his ward, there were a several others. Who didn’t get daily visits. Their hospital meals often sat uneaten, next to them. They were all elderly, like my father.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    pigeon said:

    I was thinking more of the void to the South of the village of Edunberg. Certainly when I investigated there appeared to be no evidence of Waitrose in the void, and indeed no evidence of Gail's anywhere North of Manchester.

    One would expect most of the Cabinet to avoid such remote and heathen places for fear of being captured and boiled in large pots. I doubt that the Civil Service know anything about what happens there, beyond perhaps the evidence contained within obscure medieval scrolls held in the British Library.
    Gail's is stupidly overpriced. And not that good for what it is.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
     

    Thanks. I've long struggled with my weight, the last time I weighed what I do now was about 15 years ago. I was typically around 220 and would diet and get it close to 200 but never got it down below 200.

    I was always active despite being overweight so never too concerned. Lockdown was bad for my health. Went from doing upto 20k steps a day to sub 4k. That's when my weight went up to 252 and I struggled to get it back down again before I switched my diet.

    Despite it being rather American, I took a long time ago to weighing in pounds alone. Easier to keep track using that as a decimal rather than messing around with stone conversions, and easier to notice differences when dieting than dealing with kg.
    But you calculate bmi with imperial units..?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    pigeon said:

    I was thinking more of the void to the South of the village of Edunberg. Certainly when I investigated there appeared to be no evidence of Waitrose in the void, and indeed no evidence of Gail's anywhere North of Manchester.

    One would expect most of the Cabinet to avoid such remote and heathen places for fear of being captured and boiled in large pots. I doubt that the Civil Service know anything about what happens there, beyond perhaps the evidence contained within obscure medieval scrolls held in the British Library.
    I’ve actually got one of those scrolls with me here in Bangkok. I can quote:



    HƿA, YE SOFT-BELLIED SŌÞERON MEWLERS, FLEE FOR ÞY LYF! For norþ of Eoferƿīc liggeþ only ƿrǣþþ and wrecchednesse! Þǣr grimly wyverns, great-swollen swā kynges’ drakkars, spuweth reocan fȳr, and þeƿran folk swelt at heora talouns! Þǣr be ƿulvas, high swā a war-stede’s rigg, þeorƿende in þā dim holtwudu, heora þeþer red wiþ cnihta’s blōde! And lo! þā loþlic Scottes cometh, haryende and brennende, theyre shankes unhoséd and theyre tunges y-laden wiþ eldritch curses and neeps! Eke, þe alleged tuppence-licker Nicola Sturgeon lūreth þǣr in þā mistes, plotting foule devices against þe realm!

    And who, saith ye, holdeth þe lyne ‘twixt civil folk and þis devyls’ land? Who but stout @Cookie, þe Ron Swanson of Outer Manchester, he ƿho holdeth þe last bastion of meat and reason? Flee, flee, lest þe norþ take þe, and þou becomest naught but a tale in minstrelles’ lay!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, so *that's* why they can't find a civil servant willing to move from London to act as a junior provincial procurator for oils in Obar Dheathain. Not enough rotten-fish sauce in the local market. And the oil is probably mutton fat anyway.
    Noone wants to go to the savage lands. They've all seen The Wicker Man.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    pigeon said:

    Noone wants to go to the savage lands. They've all seen The Wicker Man.
    I don’t fear Summer Isle, because I know I’d have just taken Britt Ekland up on her offer and been safe…
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951
    Leon said:

    NB I’ve checked and there is dispute here. Some people claim the Economist Building IS brutalist. But this is surely wrong

    “Brutalism” comes from the French phrase "béton brut," meaning "raw concrete." This refers to the unfinished, exposed concrete that is a hallmark of the
    style. The National Theatre IS brutalist. You can still see the impressions of the wooden cases that enclosed the raw concrete. A deliberate choice by Denys Lasdun

    The Economist Building has a concrete frame but it is clad in Portland Stone. Concrete plays little part in its expression. It is not “brutalist”. It is quite banal “international style” modernism
    Any views on Jonathan Meades - an exponent of brutalism? Always enjoyed his telly shows on architecture. Apparently lives in a Le Corbusier structure in Marseilles. His latest novel - Empty Wigs - is quite a bruiser, not for the faint- hearted.
  • geoffw said:

     

    But you calculate bmi with imperial units..?

    Just Google a calculator and it does it for you.

    I prefer metric on a philosophical basis, but know my height in an imperial one so what difference does it make. I could do the maths but it is easy enough to find a calculator online that takes weight in pounds and height in feet and inches.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    AnthonyT said:

    The North has Booths, which makes Waitrose look common.
    Oh? Never been. But presumably the entrance is round the corner in an unmarked and discreet door on a side road off Grainger Street, so if one hasn't been formally introduced by a member ...
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,092
    Leon said:

    Seifert, IIRC? Used to score near there
    It’s by George Marsh, one of the founding partners of that firm, who brought a different style to Seifert’s.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,138
    edited February 16

    Any views on Jonathan Meades - an exponent of brutalism? Always enjoyed his telly shows on architecture. Apparently lives in a Le Corbusier structure in Marseilles. His latest novel - Empty Wigs - is quite a bruiser, not for the faint- hearted.
    I think he's brilliant, I've watched nearly all of his TV shows. Available here.

    https://meadesshrine.blogspot.com

    He lives in that enormous Brutalist building in Marseille.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Leon said:

    Interesting, ta. And yes I agree on “pounds”. Best measure
    I do stones and pounds.

    That does seem a strange one. Most people still use it for newborns (well pounds and ounces) but I know few GenZ who weigh themselves that way, when they all know their height in feet and inches.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975

    Just Google a calculator and it does it for you.

    I prefer metric on a philosophical basis, but know my height in an imperial one so what difference does it make. I could do the maths but it is easy enough to find a calculator online that takes weight in pounds and height in feet and inches.
    It would be nice to have a calculator get the square of height calculating only in feet and inches

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    AnthonyT said:

    Gail's is stupidly overpriced. And not that good for what it is.
    That's not the point!

    It's fashionable. Whether it tastes any good is neither here nor there. Indulging such base impulses is what leads to the fall of civilization, men wearing tartan skirts, and cannibalism.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,051
    Leon said:

    Do you know how/why your weight got so out of hand?

    You are under no obligation to answer. I’ve no desire to push buttons

    You should be on telly. That’s incredible weight loss, and without ozempic!
    Whilst you are here, have you watched the tv adaptation of Uncanny yet? I’m very much of the opinion that something about ghosts, whether they exist or not, works infinitely better on the radio than tv. I seem to recall you enjoying Uncanny so thought I would engage your opinion.

    Doesn’t help of course that seeing the people who claim to have seen the ghosts can make you question their sanity - latest lady turned up for her interview dressed as a steampunk Edwardian goth lady. Apparently she always dresses like this but isn’t a kook at all.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, so *that's* why they can't find a civil servant willing to move from London to act as a junior provincial procurator for oils in Obar Dheathain. Not enough rotten-fish sauce in the local market. And the oil is probably mutton fat anyway.
    Hadrian built a wall for a reason. So did Antonine.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    geoffw said:

    It would be nice to have a calculator get the square of height calculating only in feet and inches

    Nobody should get too hung up on BMI in any case. It is a poor measure.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Carnyx said:

    Oh? Never been. But presumably the entrance is round the corner in an unmarked and discreet door on a side road off Grainger Street, so if one hasn't been formally introduced by a member ...
    Booths tried a sally northwards as an in-house grocery within Dobbies garden centre a few years ago but were repulsed by Waitrose which has taken over the franchise

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    I do stones and pounds.

    That does seem a strange one. Most people still use it for newborns (well pounds and ounces) but I know few GenZ who weigh themselves that way, when they all know their height in feet and inches.
    I’m now a weird mix of kilos and feet/inches. So I have a tricky choice when doing the BMI.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951
    Andy_JS said:

    I think he's brilliant, I've watched nearly all of his TV shows. Available here.

    https://meadesshrine.blogspot.com
    True. That said, TV Meades is non-alcoholic Meades. The books - particularly the fiction - is the scrumpy - raw and unfiltered. Like Anthony Burgess meets Martin Amis without the self-censorship.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Any views on Jonathan Meades - an exponent of brutalism? Always enjoyed his telly shows on architecture. Apparently lives in a Le Corbusier structure in Marseilles. His latest novel - Empty Wigs - is quite a bruiser, not for the faint- hearted.
    Always liked Meades. Wondered where he went!

    He lives in the famous Unite d’Habitation?!

    I’ve been there. It’s quite powerful with traces of noom but I’m not sure I’d want to LIVE there. Like many Corbusier buildings the living spaces are small and oppressive

    Here’s a photo I took of the famous roof


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612
    AnthonyT said:

    The North has Booths, which makes Waitrose look common.
    Booths is actually rather poor when it comes to organic products.

    But Riverford and Able & Cole deliver in these northern wastelands.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    pigeon said:

    Nobody should get too hung up on BMI in any case. It is a poor measure.
    Well yes, but I was interested solely in the calculation - what is the square of 5'10" ?

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Leon said:

    Interesting, ta. And yes I agree on “pounds”. Best measure
    You would abandon the good stout British stone? What are you Sir, an American?!

    And I'm still waiting for a good explanation as to why we didn't revert to pre-decimal currency after Brexit. If it appears in the next Reform manifesto then I might be tempted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,044
    Leon said:

    1. The Economist Building is not brutalism

    2. It’s crap and ugly. Peter and Alison Smithson were two of the worst architects in human history. I wish they were still alive so I could urinate all over them as they pissed all over Britain
    So, I can add architecture to the list of things @Leon doesn't know a lot about.

    Gotcha.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    boulay said:

    Whilst you are here, have you watched the tv adaptation of Uncanny yet? I’m very much of the opinion that something about ghosts, whether they exist or not, works infinitely better on the radio than tv. I seem to recall you enjoying Uncanny so thought I would engage your opinion.

    Doesn’t help of course that seeing the people who claim to have seen the ghosts can make you question their sanity - latest lady turned up for her interview dressed as a steampunk Edwardian goth lady. Apparently she always dresses like this but isn’t a kook at all.
    I’ve got the third tv episode ready for later this week

    I love it. Even the obviously explicable episodes - tv or radio - are fun. And one or two are BRRRR

    We discussed this the other day. I thought Hollymount Farm was genuinely unsettling, of the more recent episodes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,044
    @Leon

    I know you're in thrall to ChatGPT, so here is the proof:


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    geoffw said:

    Well yes, but I was interested solely in the calculation - what is the square of 5'10" ?

    4900 sq inches, in mental arithmetic.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,044
    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    I know you're in thrall to ChatGPT, so here is the proof:


    Albeit I should probably include the later text:

    The Economist Building is better classified as part of the "New Brutalism" movement
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    I know you're in thrall to ChatGPT, so here is the proof:


    Just shows how rubbish AI is. I personally have no use for it
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    I know you're in thrall to ChatGPT, so here is the proof:


    But what about Rothesayist architecture?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    I see Starmer is planning to 'overrule' HMT/Reeves to get to 2.5% of GDP by the end of this Parliament, which is a tiny move up from this previously being policy but with no timetable. I also understand the SDR will be asked what can be done to better defend Britain within a 2.5% envelope.

    Sadly, I fear that's still inadequate. Defence chiefs have asked for 2.65% and I think that's reasonable.

    As Hunt said on his podcast the other day if the US totally withdrew from Europe all this 2.5% stuff would go away and we'd be talking about 6, 7, 8 or even 10% of GDP on defence.

    Because we'd have no choice.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Leon said:

    Just shows how rubbish AI is. I personally have no use for it
    I recently used AI. It's answer was an order of magnitude out.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Carnyx said:

    4900 sq inches, in mental arithmetic.
    Too easy. .. but now go on and divide it into weight of 11stones and 3 pounds and derive the conversion factor that enables use of the bmi charts

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 16
    Sir Keir Starmer will resist pressure from military chiefs to increase UK defence spending above the 2.5 per cent of GDP target already set, The Telegraph understands.

    Senior military figures are understood to believe the Government’s current ambition would barely “touch the sides” of what is needed to fund Britain’s defence needs.

    An ally of the Prime Minister told The Telegraph: “The policy we stood on at the election was 2.5 per cent on defence spending. Our policy is still 2.5 per cent. We’re not going to shift any further.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/16/starmer-reject-pleas-spend-defence/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    rcs1000 said:

    So, I can add architecture to the list of things @Leon doesn't know a lot about.

    Gotcha.
    The Economist Building is really not brutalist. For that you need exposed raw concrete and overt usage OF concrete. That’s what “brutalism” explicitly means

    However you’re not alone in your ignorance. There are others making the same error online. It’s lazy and dim

    I suspect the confusion comes from the fact the architects of the Econ Complex, the Smithsons (you must be related) were crucial pioneers of the style and definitely used it in other buildings, like the infamously evil Robin Hood Gardens
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    The Army needs to field a fully equipped warfighting division with another in reserve. So it can place a clear continental deterrent and sustain it on the central European plain for 6 months at a time.

    I can't see how it does it without regular forces going back up to 105-120k men.

    That's not going to be cheap and will probably take 5-7 years to achieve.
  • geoffw said:

    Well yes, but I was interested solely in the calculation - what is the square of 5'10" ?

    I get what you're saying, but how many people actually square their height and do the maths themselves? And how many just plug the numbers into a calculator that spits out the answer?

    And if you're doing the latter, no harm in plugging in non-metric numbers that does all the conversions behind the scenes and then spits out the answer.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Chagos. Some snippets from further reading.
    “The base accommodates thousands of US military and civilian personnel along with 40 or so UK Sailors and marines [link to names and photos I’ve redacted, but they all got splendid suntans]. The UK has no other presence in the Chagos Islands.”
    I know Dannatt gets a poor regard on PB, but when he says the UK interest is it should give the base to the US, I can understand where he is coming from - it’s money better spent on our own ships, tanks and air defence than just leasing an island on behalf of an ally.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chagos-starmer-trump-diego-garcia-b2696771.html

    A further piece from LSE mentions what payment in kind UK gets from US.
    “The US has to date made no direct payment for Diego Garcia but UK consent to the establishment of the base led to a discount from the US Government on the acquisition of the UK’s submarine launched nuclear deterrent. The UK is highly dependent on US military cooperation, and UK payments for a lease of Diego Garcia will be seen by the UK Government as investing in a relationship with the US which pays military dividends.”
    But it’s beginning to come across as only one in the relationship does all the heavy lifting?

    Questions corner. How cosy are Mauritius to the Chinese, as a lot of US Republicans Senators insist ? India and Mauritius are pretty cosy too, without doubt. India were there with the US in these negotiations the last few years.

    I’m still certain a deal will happen, with a Trump rebranding that he’s improved a bad deal to a win for everybody - except China. But I think Trump rebrand deal will mean a much bigger up front payment than £90M from UK to Mauritius, like a huge signing on fee of hundreds of millions.

    But how can we know Trumps rebrand includes improved security matters such as exclusion zones around the base to address the risk of surveillance? Can we actually measure Trumps left blood on the carpet with Mauritius and improved that?

    In fact, correct me where wrong - can we ever know that if we didn’t do a lease deal, how much stronger it would have played out from this position? Whist Starmers deal its claimed allows China, via Mauritius, much closer surveillance of the US base, including a base for China set up in Chagos too! this LSE piece I’m linking to is arguing, even if the status quo is kept, US and UK cannot prevent prevent Chinese surveillance and greater encroachment. Even if we don’t accept the Mauritius 99yr lease offer to UK, some years ago the last Conservative government opened negotiations now concluding on that offer, what could we actually do to prevent Chinese “encroachment” going forward?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/what-should-starmer-do-about-the-chagos-islands/
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975

    Sir Keir Starmer will resist pressure from military chiefs to increase UK defence spending above the 2.5 per cent of GDP target already set, The Telegraph understands.

    Senior military figures are understood to believe the Government’s current ambition would barely “touch the sides” of what is needed to fund Britain’s defence needs.

    An ally of the Prime Minister told The Telegraph: “The policy we stood on at the election was 2.5 per cent on defence spending. Our policy is still 2.5 per cent. We’re not going to shift any further.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/16/starmer-reject-pleas-spend-defence/

    Despite the evidence unfolding in Munich and the Donbas ..

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    edited February 16

    I see Starmer is planning to 'overrule' HMT/Reeves to get to 2.5% of GDP by the end of this Parliament, which is a tiny move up from this previously being policy but with no timetable. I also understand the SDR will be asked what can be done to better defend Britain within a 2.5% envelope.

    Sadly, I fear that's still inadequate. Defence chiefs have asked for 2.65% and I think that's reasonable.

    As Hunt said on his podcast the other day if the US totally withdrew from Europe all this 2.5% stuff would go away and we'd be talking about 6, 7, 8 or even 10% of GDP on defence.

    Because we'd have no choice.

    The value for money choice would be to spend an additional say 0.5% of our gdp financially supporting countries close to Russia that have cheaper manufacturing so that they can spend 10% of their GDP. And to allow Poland to go nuclear.

    If any country deserves to have nuclear weapons given its geopolitical situation and history it’s Poland.

    But in the meantime the more we can all suppress Russian GDP by not buying anything from them and making life difficult for anyone who does (including the USA it seems), the more we remove the financial driver for 90% of our defence needs in Europe.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,485
    rcs1000 said:

    @Leon

    I know you're in thrall to ChatGPT, so here is the proof:


    You confused it with a typo.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,540

    But, for "bath", do you say barth or bafh?
    Mrs Rata says Barvaria for the German region, which is like fingers on a chalkboard.
  • It's a bit wet. We were at 4-5% of GDP in the 1980s, because we were in Cold War conditions.

    We are now in Cold War conditions.
    No money, cos we have all these reparations to pay....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    rcs1000 said:

    Albeit I should probably include the later text:

    The Economist Building is better classified as part of the "New Brutalism" movement
    Or indeed the full text? Ahem? I just asked ChatGPT4o:

    “Is the Economist Building brutalist?”

    Answer:

    “No, the Economist building in London, designed by Alison and Peter Smithson and completed in 1964, is not strictly brutalist. It is more accurately described as high-tech modernist or part of the New Brutalism movement in its refined form. While it shares some characteristics with brutalist architecture—such as an emphasis on structure and raw materials—it is more polished, with elegant proportions and high-quality materials like Portland stone rather than the raw
    concrete typical of brutalism.”

    There is no shame in being intellectually average, Robert. Most are. There is shame in trying to hide it
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    TimS said:

    The value for money choice would be to spend an additional say 0.5% of our gdp financially supporting countries close to Russia that have cheaper manufacturing so that they can spend 10% of their GDP. And to allow Poland to go nuclear.

    If any country deserves to have nuclear weapons given its geopolitical situation and history it’s Poland.

    But in the meantime the more we can all suppress Russian GDP by not buying anything from them and making life difficult for anyone who does (including the USA it seems), the more we remove the financial driver for 90% of our defence needs in Europe.
    Which, of course, is similar to the Napoleonic Wars when we built continental coalitions by doing the same.

    But, I don't think there's any escaping the conclusion our Armed Forces are now woefully and dangerously undersized and underprepared, our army is essentially just a performative militia now with some special forces on top, and we're going to have to cough up.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    No money, cos we have all these reparations to pay....
    There is money, they just don't want to take it off the "wrong" people.

    One useful thing Trump can do is level demands in this area that Starmer may struggle to refuse.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,004
    geoffw said:

    Well yes, but I was interested solely in the calculation - what is the square of 5'10" ?

    34 sq ft, 4 sq in
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    pigeon said:

    That's not the point!

    It's fashionable. Whether it tastes any good is neither here nor there. Indulging such base impulses is what leads to the fall of civilization, men wearing tartan skirts, and cannibalism.
    It's fashionable with the sort of people any sensible person would cross the street to avoid.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Which, of course, is similar to the Napoleonic Wars when we built continental coalitions by doing the same.

    But, I don't think there's any escaping the conclusion our Armed Forces are now woefully and dangerously undersized and underprepared, our army is essentially just a performative militia now with some special forces on top, and we're going to have to cough up.
    The country ought to. Starmer probably won't. Other priorities. The enormous social security budget, mostly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    No money, cos we have all these reparations to pay....
    Politicians need to lead the public.

    At the moment, they have no room for manoeuvre. I bet you could hear the howls of outrage from the moon were the triple lock to be touched, taxes put up, PIPs abolished, or healthcare spending qualified - with lots of individual sob stories and anecdotes to justify it.

    We just don't have the leadership but we have so many locked and vested interests.
  • Which, of course, is similar to the Napoleonic Wars when we built continental coalitions by doing the same.

    But, I don't think there's any escaping the conclusion our Armed Forces are now woefully and dangerously undersized and underprepared, our army is essentially just a performative militia now with some special forces on top, and we're going to have to cough up.
    Well when AI takes all our jobs as least there might be a job in the military....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    pigeon said:

    The country ought to. Starmer probably won't. Other priorities. The enormous social security budget, mostly.
    That's got to change, I'm afraid.

    Social security means nothing without national security.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Mrs Rata says Barvaria for the German region, which is like fingers on a chalkboard.
    I worked with a bloke at Imperial, many, many moons ago, who pronounced "Latin" as "Lah-tin".
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Barnesian said:

    34 sq ft, 4 sq in
    OK, now do the whole bmi ...
    (Carnix's squaring was neater)

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Actually the best and most painless way of funding a giant increase in defence is if we were paying £50bn a year servicing the national debt rather than over £100bn.

    But, that's not going to happen, is it?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951

    It's a bit wet. We were at 4-5% of GDP in the 1980s, because we were in Cold War conditions.

    We are now in Cold War conditions.
    In the age of Trump and Putin gradualist civil service thinking is just not on. It will be the death of Europe. We need to DOUBLE defence spending. The threat is existential.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,051

    The Army needs to field a fully equipped warfighting division with another in reserve. So it can place a clear continental deterrent and sustain it on the central European plain for 6 months at a time.

    I can't see how it does it without regular forces going back up to 105-120k men.

    That's not going to be cheap and will probably take 5-7 years to achieve.

    I’m not sure the UK should necessarily be in the business of providing a huge land army. We should stick to high quality specialist troops but build up the navy and air force (but using large quantity drones instead of hugely expensive fighter jets as their role).

    We should have a huge sub expansion and provide a large part of the naval deterrent for Europe. We can send Marines to bolster the Scandi countries who can focus on specialist armies for the arctic borders and seas.

    France and Spain and Portugal can be the same, mainly Naval with air and infantry as they are suitably far away.

    Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria can focus on land armies, supplemented by British, French etc regiments.

    Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Luxembourg are rich countries but small so can focus on air power.

    Italy, Greece and the balkans can cover the Med with Navy and air to cover the Black Sea exit to the Med and beyond.

    Ireland can sit there doing nothing and nodding disapprovingly at the UK for being so uncivilised and militaristic.

    I know this is pretty bonkers in a way but all European countries need to contribute but it makes sense that they contribute in ways where their geography or populations are best employed.

    And Europe as a whole should chip in towards the British and French Nuclear deterrent if they are happy to shelter under it now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    @rcs1000 if it’s any consolation Google’s Gemini makes the same mistake as you. “Brutalist”. Claims it is concrete. When this error is pointed out it grovellingly retreats, thusly:

    “You're right to question why I got it so wrong. There are a few factors that likely contributed to my mistake:

    * Over-reliance on general associations: I probably latched onto the fact that the Economist Building is a mid-20th-century building designed by the Smithsons, who were associated with Brutalism. I then incorrectly assumed, based on that association, that the building itself must be Brutalist. This is a faulty way of thinking. I should have checked the specific details of the building's materials and style instead of relying on a broad generalization.

    * Insufficient fact-checking: I clearly didn't properly verify the key details, like the building's cladding material. I should have consulted multiple reliable sources to confirm the facts before presenting them. I am still under development, and one of my weaknesses is that I sometimes prioritize speed over accuracy.

    * Confusion with similar buildings: It's possible I conflated the Economist Building with other buildings that do feature exposed concrete. My internal data might contain information about many buildings, and I may have mixed up the details.

    * Lack of nuanced understanding of architectural styles: While I can process information about different architectural styles, I don't yet have the same level of deep understanding as a human expert. This can lead to misclassifications and a failure to recognize the subtle differences between styles.

    Essentially, I made a series of incorrect assumptions and didn't do enough to verify the information. I am working on improving my ability to access and process information accurately, and your feedback is very helpful in that process.”

    Perhaps this will be helpful for you, as well, as you look to grow, intellectually, under my tutelage
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    That's got to change, I'm afraid.

    Social security means nothing without national security.
    But the voters.

    Unless Trump brings enough economic pressure to bear to frighten him into compliance, he won't do it. There are no votes in defence and, as I said the other day, there won't be until the Russians have reached the Rhine and Britain and France have no cards to play save to threaten nuclear war. By which point it'll be a little late.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975

    Actually the best and most painless way of funding a giant increase in defence is if we were paying £50bn a year servicing the national debt rather than over £100bn.

    But, that's not going to happen, is it?

    The Monetary Policy C'ttee could sort out Putin with ruthless quantitive easing, lowering our interest rate and reducing the debt to pay the military...

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 16

    Actually the best and most painless way of funding a giant increase in defence is if we were paying £50bn a year servicing the national debt rather than over £100bn.

    But, that's not going to happen, is it?

    Chicken meet the egg....
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,254
    edited February 16
    geoffw said:

    OK, now do the whole bmi ...
    (Carnix's squaring was neater)

    It is doable.

    5'8" = 68"
    68^2 = 4624"

    Imperial BMI = lbs/ "^2 * 703

    177 / 4624 * 703 = 26.9 so its being rounded up to 27

    EDIT: And it seems I'm down from 38.3 so down even further than I realised when going to 1 d.p.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    ...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    boulay said:

    I’m not sure the UK should necessarily be in the business of providing a huge land army. We should stick to high quality specialist troops but build up the navy and air force (but using large quantity drones instead of hugely expensive fighter jets as their role).

    We should have a huge sub expansion and provide a large part of the naval deterrent for Europe. We can send Marines to bolster the Scandi countries who can focus on specialist armies for the arctic borders and seas.

    France and Spain and Portugal can be the same, mainly Naval with air and infantry as they are suitably far away.

    Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria can focus on land armies, supplemented by British, French etc regiments.

    Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Luxembourg are rich countries but small so can focus on air power.

    Italy, Greece and the balkans can cover the Med with Navy and air to cover the Black Sea exit to the Med and beyond.

    Ireland can sit there doing nothing and nodding disapprovingly at the UK for being so uncivilised and militaristic.

    I know this is pretty bonkers in a way but all European countries need to contribute but it makes sense that they contribute in ways where their geography or populations are best employed.

    And Europe as a whole should chip in towards the British and French Nuclear deterrent if they are happy to shelter under it now.
    Agree with all of that. From each according to his ability etc.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,306

    Sir Keir Starmer will resist pressure from military chiefs to increase UK defence spending above the 2.5 per cent of GDP target already set, The Telegraph understands.

    Senior military figures are understood to believe the Government’s current ambition would barely “touch the sides” of what is needed to fund Britain’s defence needs.

    An ally of the Prime Minister told The Telegraph: “The policy we stood on at the election was 2.5 per cent on defence spending. Our policy is still 2.5 per cent. We’re not going to shift any further.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/16/starmer-reject-pleas-spend-defence/

    How the hell did someone with so little political sense or ability ever become PM? It's honestly amazing how Starmer can't put the ball in the net of an open goal.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    AnthonyT said:

    There have been lots of hospitals with really poor records in maternity and neo-natal care. But only in this one was a nurse charged and convicted of murder and attempted murder. Hard to tell whether this was because the nurse was rightly convicted or made a scapegoat for those failings.

    In only one case was a nurse observed performing poorly

    'Why North England is poor'

    https://tomforth.co.uk/whynorthenglandispoor/
    That was interesting to read.

    It’s only on a small scale compared to what is described in that article, but I note that UK government research funding in recent years has deliberately tried to avoid the Golden Triangle and to push more research money to other parts of the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 16
    glw said:

    How the hell did someone with so little political sense or ability ever become PM? It's honestly amazing how Starmer can't put the ball in the net of an open goal.
    Because the alternative had even less political nous....I am just going to nip off early from this D-Day thingy for an interview with ITV, I am sure nobody will mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    BAFTA opening.

    I've chatted to all three of the people in David Tennant's mirror.... Helen Mirren, Jim Broadbent, Brian Cox.

  • pigeon said:

    But the voters.

    Unless Trump brings enough economic pressure to bear to frighten him into compliance, he won't do it. There are no votes in defence and, as I said the other day, there won't be until the Russians have reached the Rhine and Britain and France have no cards to play save to threaten nuclear war. By which point it'll be a little late.
    "But Czar Alexander made it all the way to Paris!" - Stalin in 1945.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    glw said:

    How the hell did someone with so little political sense or ability ever become PM? It's honestly amazing how Starmer can't put the ball in the net of an open goal.
    There needs to be the set-up. We are at war: at best a second Cold War; but a war nonetheless.

    Until the public fully believe that, there's no way they'll accept increased military funding. So it needs to be sold.

    It'll be interesting to see if the Farage / Lice try to argue against increased military funding ...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537

    Because the alternative had even less political nous....I am just going to nip off early from this D-Day thingy for an interview with ITV, I am sure nobody will mind.
    I think the important question is how did Starmer become the leader of the Labour Party but given that his main rival was Rebecca Long-Bailey - you can see why he won....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    glw said:

    How the hell did someone with so little political sense or ability ever become PM? It's honestly amazing how Starmer can't put the ball in the net of an open goal.
    Yes, Sir Keir could become the Saviour of the Nation and destroy Reform overnight: 'Sorry Nigel. I had to raise defence spending to 20% because your mate Trump sold us out to Putin.' Sir Keir needs to go in for the kill.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    Andy_JS said:

    I think he's brilliant, I've watched nearly all of his TV shows. Available here.

    https://meadesshrine.blogspot.com

    He lives in that enormous Brutalist building in Marseille.
    Comes with the advantage of not having to look at it I suppose.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951

    In the age of Trump and Putin gradualist civil service thinking is just not on. It will be the death of Europe. We need to DOUBLE defence spending. The threat is existential.
    According to reports Poland planning to spend over 6% next year. They, of course, get it. These are not normal times.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,485
    Grim

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-hospital-stabbing-breaking-ae-31016296

    A Birmingham hospital was put on 'lockdown' after a stabbing on a city street.

    A witness claimed that a group "ambushed" the A&E department at Heartlands Hospital, while an ambulance was also "raided with a patient inside."
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    The Army needs to field a fully equipped warfighting division with another in reserve. So it can place a clear continental deterrent and sustain it on the central European plain for 6 months at a time.

    I can't see how it does it without regular forces going back up to 105-120k men.

    That's not going to be cheap and will probably take 5-7 years to achieve.

    We should learn from the Ukrainians and spend any new ones on drones, lots of drones!
This discussion has been closed.