Why growth might not be enough for Labour – politicalbetting.com

carnforth said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So the governments pick for Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration lives full time in Finland.....there is hybrid working and then there is hybrid working. Will he be doing his inspections via Zoom?

At least living in a country that more or less works might rub off on him?

Would it be unreasonable to require by law that all public sector employees whose work is in the UK actually live here ?
Apart from anything else, it might significantly improve our balance of payments.

It should at least need high level sign-off. Maybe it already does.

That would just mean the most highly paid individuals would get permission.
As our NU10Kers would confirm.

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Well exactly, this is what I keep saying. If the government is to have a single defining mission it shouldn't be growth it should be reducing inequality. For two reasons. (i) It's more important. (ii) It's more under their control.

A "single defining mission" is a pretty stupid way to run any government.

Sheer self interest ought to militate in favour of reducing inequality, as a failure to do so jeopardises their core vote in a way it might not for the Tories. But rationally, reducing inequality in a sustainable manner means increasing productive investment (not just spending) in the poorer regions of the country.
The payoff for that ought to be significant - but in all likelihood not on a timescale which aligns with the electoral process, unfortunately.

Goverment and its agencies, national and local, run about half of all activity of UK plc. This may be a bad idea, but they do. To limit its public targets to this or that project or outcome is both untrue and futile. Government's job is to do all these things competently well, whether its preschool places in Scunthorpe or HMRC answering the phone.

it is the public, not the government who adjudicate, and decide which bits are the most important.

If Tesco said: 'We focus on jam, pickled onions, frozen peas, lager and white bread, and the public must judge us by how we do in these five missions' they would not be in business.

PS How is the Dilnot report implementation getting on?

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

Good.

It's only fair to warn the forum that I have just done 25 lengths of my hotel pool AND 30 mins in the gym, so in about 40 minutes I will be denouncing Himmler as a feeble Lib Demmy centrist dad

numbertwelve said:

Badenoch having a mare at PMQs. She lets Starmer, who himself is pretty rubbish and vulnerable, completely off the hook.

The problem with getting your info from PB is I watch PMQs ready to see Badenoch do ok and Starmer to set fire to his own head or something. The narrative on here doesn't match reality.

It's difficult to hate Starmer in the way that people some posters do. You can be pretty disappointed though.

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

The Finland bit was a dire moment for Badenoch.

How could she or her team not know that the reply would be 'you lot appointed him in 2019 and after five years we have now made him work from UK'???

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

Yes, he did not fully answer Kemi's question. But he made it sound like he did address it, if not directly answer it. Instead of leaving it, Kemi pushed the issue- and she doesn't have the fleetness of rhetoric to make that work. She should just have moved on to another issue or angle on that question.

MattW said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Leon said:

PB should ban me from discussing any topic where I am completely right, and eventually shown to be right, and right in a way which horribly annoys everyone else, not least because I gloat, endlessly, about my clairvoyant genius

Unfortunately, going forward, this will restrict me to commentary about Liz Truss and What3Words. And even What3Words is looking a bit perkier than it was

"Ulaanbaatar, December 24, 2024 /MONTSAME/. The National Emergency Management Agency of Mongolia has launched a campaign to encourage every citizen to install the location-identifying What3Words application on their mobile phones. As part of this effort, the app has been installed and implemented for use on the mobile phones of 636,876 Mongolian citizens across 21 aimags of Mongolia."

I have to admit that we used W3W a fair bit on my watch in my old job. Leicestershire is a very rural county and W3W enabled us to locate incidents quickly if it was used. Even just using it to identify to other crews where we were using a portable pump for water or the best gate to use to traverse a field was a regular occurrence. I haven't used it since, but a couple of Amazon drivers said it helps if people in remote or complex locations put it in their delivery notes on orders.

Yes it is very useful for identifying gates. Especially gates in the middle of nowhere blocking Rights of Way.

Trouble is lack of error checking/sensing. I'm just working with a paper which has a NGR obviously out - but given the area it looks as if a 6 has been typed for a 0 which makes complete sense. With What Three Words, if Leon mistyped 'tart' for 'tarn' you'd probably be 5000 km rather than 500m out ...

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

One of the things I'm, hoping for if/when Farage gets in is a wholesale clearout of the immigration tribunal system. It's clearly not fit for purpose.

carnforth said:

viewcode said:

carnforth said:

(Extracts of) Transcripts of the Gwynne WhatsApp, per Guido:

https://order-order.com/2025/02/12/full-gwynne-group-chat-leaked-drag-queen-thornberry-and-rayner-a-waste-of-time/

Those chats aren't too dissimilar to the stuff we[1] get up to on here. Should we be concerned?

[1] Not me, obvs. I'm perfect, and I will instruct my lawyer accordingly...

Oh, I think we hold politicians to far too high a standard on this stuff. But I also love gossip. File me under hypocrite.

If they're stupid enough to write this stuff in a whatsapp group chat then it should be an automatic "too stupid to be an MP" disqualifying criteria with some reasonable statute of limitation.
Astounding that they passed candidate vetting, unless Labour's vetting is not scrupulously transparent in which case they should be firing some people in vetting. Looking pretty stupid to have suspended candidates for humanitarian sympathies but allowed these idiots through.

Is Boris Johnson trolling Trump? If so he has gone up a tiny bit in my estimation.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-says-mar-a-lago-is-a-great-place-for-people-of-gaza-to-settle/ar-AA1ySRg6?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=7ae963dec9d5444f8a632b019e32149d&ei=9

Leon said:

It's only fair to warn the forum that I have just done 25 lengths of my hotel pool AND 30 mins in the gym, so in about 40 minutes I will be denouncing Himmler as a feeble Lib Demmy centrist dad

I don't think Himmler did water boarding.

Not *that* sort of water boarding, anyway.

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

viewcode said:

carnforth said:

(Extracts of) Transcripts of the Gwynne WhatsApp, per Guido:

https://order-order.com/2025/02/12/full-gwynne-group-chat-leaked-drag-queen-thornberry-and-rayner-a-waste-of-time/

Those chats aren't too dissimilar to the stuff we[1] get up to on here. Should we be concerned?

[1] Not me, obvs. I'm perfect, and I will instruct my lawyer accordingly...

Oh, I think we hold politicians to far too high a standard on this stuff. But I also love gossip. File me under hypocrite.

If they're stupid enough to write this stuff in a whatsapp group chat then it should be an automatic "too stupid to be an MP" disqualifying criteria with some reasonable statute of limitation.
Astounding that they passed candidate vetting, unless Labour's vetting is not scrupulously transparent in which case they should be firing some people in vetting. Looking pretty stupid to have suspended candidates for humanitarian sympathies but allowed these idiots through.

Party vetting is crap. Please supply your social media links. WhatsApp isn't social media. Have you done anything which will bring the party into dispute? No.

I know from experience that the AI bots don't capture past dodgy posts made on the social media you've let them trawl through. And if you have undeclared stuff? How can they look, especially with closed loop stuff like WhatsApp?

There are 6 local by-elections tomorrow. We have Lab defences in Barnet, Torfaen, and Warwick; LD defences in East Dunbartonshire and Stevenage; and a Green defence in New Forest. Probably not the same upsets as in Pembrokeshire yesterday but I can see at least one change.

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

The days of Dan Hodges being right on anything have long gone, if they ever existed. He has a pick and mix of bad and dreadful takes, this being another. Starmer didn't answer the questions and looked liked an arrogant twat. It's not a good look, but I understand why Hodges likes it.

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

Carnyx said:

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Fishing said:

DavidL said:

The reason people think that growth does not benefit them is that it is used for services that they take for granted (since they are "free") such as the NHS.

There is a disconnect between growth and the money government has to spend. This is, in part, because large parts of the media, the third sector and indeed the Labour party, persuaded people that the government was not spending enough on the likes of health because they were mean or uncaring, as opposed to the reality that the tax take from our economy is simply insufficient to meet our aspirations.

That's true but not the only reason. Green propaganda has persuaded a significant part of the population that growth isn't worth it because, well, plastic waste and ugly housing and smokey air and stuff. Old people see there's nothing in it for them because they're on fixed incomes. And many of the young think it's all a capitalist ramp anyway.

Only an idiot denies there are some downsides to economic growth. But it takes a much worse idiot to prefer stagnation or recession.

Not to mention that we're continually told that we need more immigrants to get growth.

With many of the places that then get immigrants not seeing, let alone benefitting, from the promised growth.

Many people believe that the pre-industrial world was The Shire, rather than a place of backbreaking labour, terrible housing, and a tiny elite living it up, at their expense.

Anyone who's read about the Tolpuddle Martyrs and the Speenhamland System in Dorset will have a very jaundiced idea of any one on PB or otherwise who seriously claims that shire society is the ideal condition of society. That is, inevitably, wish fulfilment and in reality if one were born at that time it was much more likely to be a matter of the short straw even if one survived infancy.

Mind, Austen didn't have it as nice as some folk might like. There's a savage vein of wish fulfilment and terror of poverty in those novels.

"Terror of poverty" is most apt in the stuff I've read from that period, both fiction and non-fiction.

Less important now there is a social welfare safety net.

There was a safety net of sorts from the church, Parish Poor Relief and later the workhouse even then

That's a dire post, even by your standards.

Have you ever read any Dickens?

RochdalePioneers said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

Not sure that's true. Model Y and Model 3 were 1st and 2nd in EV sales in December. A lot of focus on January sales, but Tesla always sell sell at the start of the quarter.

I have had two. I will not be buying another while that twat is still in charge. Hopefully for the good of the brand he will step down, but he is just not self aware enough

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

Carnyx said:

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Fishing said:

DavidL said:

The reason people think that growth does not benefit them is that it is used for services that they take for granted (since they are "free") such as the NHS.

There is a disconnect between growth and the money government has to spend. This is, in part, because large parts of the media, the third sector and indeed the Labour party, persuaded people that the government was not spending enough on the likes of health because they were mean or uncaring, as opposed to the reality that the tax take from our economy is simply insufficient to meet our aspirations.

That's true but not the only reason. Green propaganda has persuaded a significant part of the population that growth isn't worth it because, well, plastic waste and ugly housing and smokey air and stuff. Old people see there's nothing in it for them because they're on fixed incomes. And many of the young think it's all a capitalist ramp anyway.

Only an idiot denies there are some downsides to economic growth. But it takes a much worse idiot to prefer stagnation or recession.

Not to mention that we're continually told that we need more immigrants to get growth.

With many of the places that then get immigrants not seeing, let alone benefitting, from the promised growth.

Many people believe that the pre-industrial world was The Shire, rather than a place of backbreaking labour, terrible housing, and a tiny elite living it up, at their expense.

Anyone who's read about the Tolpuddle Martyrs and the Speenhamland System in Dorset will have a very jaundiced idea of any one on PB or otherwise who seriously claims that shire society is the ideal condition of society. That is, inevitably, wish fulfilment and in reality if one were born at that time it was much more likely to be a matter of the short straw even if one survived infancy.

Mind, Austen didn't have it as nice as some folk might like. There's a savage vein of wish fulfilment and terror of poverty in those novels.

"Terror of poverty" is most apt in the stuff I've read from that period, both fiction and non-fiction.

Less important now there is a social welfare safety net.

There was a safety net of sorts from the church, Parish Poor Relief and later the workhouse even then

That's a dire post, even by your standards.

Have you ever read any Dickens?

Historically accurate though, even Oliver Twist got fed gruel not nothing at all

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

I think the point Badenoch was trying to make was that the government need to be open to derogating from the ECHR. But then she started talking about some bloke in Finland.

If Kemi backed withdrawal from the ECHR is there any significant policy difference between her and Farage then apart from Reform are a bit more Nimby?

Farage wants an insurance based health service.

Leon said:

Leon said:

PB should ban me from discussing any topic where I am completely right...

More importantly, where you think you are completely right.
It's then when you are at your most tedious.

You mean - just as an example - like when I pointed out that Sleepy Joe Biden was gaga from about 2022, and I said "this will be a massive problem for the Dems if they don't fix it", and you kept saying, for another 2 years, "No no no, he just likes dribbling and falling over"

Times like that?

Thing is, you make so many pronouncements the likelihood that the "even fools are right sometimes" maxim comes into play. Thankfully you were wrong to suggest that I should cancel my skiing holidays because Putin was going to nuke us (I'd probably have still gone anyway even if I'd been vapourised) and we are still waiting for the inevitable alien invasion. I can't remember the other ridiculous predictions, but perhaps other PBers will be able to remind us.

CharlieShark said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

The days of Dan Hodges being right on anything have long gone, if they ever existed. He has a pick and mix of bad and dreadful takes, this being another. Starmer didn't answer the questions and looked liked an arrogant twat. It's not a good look, but I understand why Hodges likes it.

He's not the only jouno:

Ava-Santina

@AvaSantina
·
13m
Striking how poorly researched Kemi Badenoch's PMQs are. Best line was about Labour's new borders watchdog that will apparently WFH in Finland, knocked back by Starmer explaining he was hired and worked from home since 2019 under the Tories. Lack of fact-checking extraordinary.

https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/1889651749339685029

On the Chagos thing, is there any valid reason why the Tories are (a) refusing to be briefed and (b) throwing mud other than not caring what the facts are?

Chris Bryant says he doesn't know the ins and outs of the law. Isn't that, like, his job?

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

Yes, he did not fully answer Kemi's question. But he made it sound like he did address it, if not directly answer it. Instead of leaving it, Kemi pushed the issue- and she doesn't have the fleetness of rhetoric to make that work. She should just have moved on to another issue or angle on that question.

I think a follow-up of "does the PM think the judge got it right, or does he agree with me that the judge was overriding democracy?"

To which the answer should be, “The Government respects judicial independence and the rule of law. This isn’t the United States.”

rottenborough said:

CharlieShark said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

The days of Dan Hodges being right on anything have long gone, if they ever existed. He has a pick and mix of bad and dreadful takes, this being another. Starmer didn't answer the questions and looked liked an arrogant twat. It's not a good look, but I understand why Hodges likes it.

He's not the only jouno:

Ava-Santina

@AvaSantina
·
13m
Striking how poorly researched Kemi Badenoch's PMQs are. Best line was about Labour's new borders watchdog that will apparently WFH in Finland, knocked back by Starmer explaining he was hired and worked from home since 2019 under the Tories. Lack of fact-checking extraordinary.

https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/1889651749339685029

I honestly don't get the PB Tory position. Many of us are partisan, but not blind and stupid. Its self-evident that Badenoch has utterly destroyed herself this week. The Finland scoop fed to the Heil being a prime example.

You - the Tories - hired this person to work from home in Finland. How on earth can you not know that when you try and line it up as a gotcha against the government?

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

They won't, it would be Stride or Philp who replaced her if she did go likely by MPs coronation as when Howard replaced IDS or Sunak replaced Truss. Jenrick and Cleverly failed to win either the Tory MPs vote or members vote

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

I doubt it matters any more. The Conservatives have lost the ability to appeal to voters aged under 65, so they'll just fade out, in favour of Reform.

MoonRabbit said:

My good deed for the day - I sorted out all ConHome, from their “Starmer should gift the Chagos Islands to Trump, and end our grand delusion of ‘Global Britain” Click bait piece, by relaying our agreed PB understanding.

“But for last 60 years US had 100% control with 0% of hassle that comes with ownership. In 60’s USA told us to carve it up so they can have Garcia base, and we did. USA told us to ethnically cleanse Chagos of Chagouns, and as owners we did it. It’s both those things deemed much too naughty that’s dropped us in it, but with UK in the dock of course, not USA. (Though US did quietly compensate us all these years we can assume).

Even if handing all responsibility for Chagos and Garcia USA was possible, it couldn’t happen without USA saying “okay, bubble screen it on to us” - why upon earth would they want to make such a painful plunge from the current arrangement? Do we have a special relationship with them? Are they our friends?

There’s this pretty girl, at highschool, who is in the habit of going out on dates where she can drink vodka, she also has a bit of tempestuous relationship going on with a flatmate she shares Chinese food with. She’s not got lots of money, but she might in the future, as her daddy’s business is on the up. She’s also popular with everyone around her, they look up to her, so she’s a leader of the pack. Now there’s these two other young bucks - I picture OC and Stiggs in all sorts of guises and situations - who want her to come to a party and hang out with them. She plays hard to get. What’s it going to take for them to woo her away from the others?

By the way, the girls name is India - key player why UK Conservative government and Biden White House u-turned from stalling at UN in 2022, and jointly negotiated this deal over last 2 years - deal waiting for UK election out the way, with Washington on our case to finalise asap - so a deal not all about the pressure from UN over our morality misstep 50 years ago - it’s the courting of India.”

I’m so clever at sussing out politics and coming to the right understanding. Just like my amazeballs election day analysis and July 4th prediction 😇

I noted this was to gain favour with about two months ago.

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

Not sure the Liberals calling for end to free trading seems quite right?

Yes, populist, but not great policy.

One which imposed tariffs on any EV manufacturers who don't set up manufacturing in the UK might be better.
You could have a sliding scale, or even give an exemption on (eg) the first 30k/50k cars a given manufacturer imported, to give them a chance to establish a presence here.
Tesla would hit that wall pretty rapidly.

While Trump remains POTUS global free trade is effectively over anyway, especially with the USA

RochdalePioneers said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

Not sure that's true. Model Y and Model 3 were 1st and 2nd in EV sales in December. A lot of focus on January sales, but Tesla always sell sell at the start of the quarter.

I'm sure there will be an overlap between the woke, rich, tree huggers and fans of the occassional nazi salute, but it seems a quite small market segment to aim for. Might work in East Germany or Alabama perhaps.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Continuing the trend of virtual 3-way ties, and the Tories drop slightly back in our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention:

➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
🌹LAB 25% (+1)
🌳CON 23% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( -1)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+2)

Dates 7-10/2 Change with 31-3/2 n=2005

https://x.com/luketryl/status/1889606309508509829?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Gives Labour 187 seats, Reform 178, Conservatives 167 and LDs 60.

So Kemi Kingmaker who could make Starmer or Farage PM

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=23&LAB=25&LIB=12&Reform=25&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base

rottenborough said:

CharlieShark said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

The days of Dan Hodges being right on anything have long gone, if they ever existed. He has a pick and mix of bad and dreadful takes, this being another. Starmer didn't answer the questions and looked liked an arrogant twat. It's not a good look, but I understand why Hodges likes it.

He's not the only jouno:

Ava-Santina

@AvaSantina
·
13m
Striking how poorly researched Kemi Badenoch's PMQs are. Best line was about Labour's new borders watchdog that will apparently WFH in Finland, knocked back by Starmer explaining he was hired and worked from home since 2019 under the Tories. Lack of fact-checking extraordinary.

https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/1889651749339685029

Each time she attacks Starmer, Reform gain. This only goes one way, in the next few months at least.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Continuing the trend of virtual 3-way ties, and the Tories drop slightly back in our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention:

➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
🌹LAB 25% (+1)
🌳CON 23% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( -1)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+2)

Dates 7-10/2 Change with 31-3/2 n=2005

https://x.com/luketryl/status/1889606309508509829?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Gives Labour 187 seats, Reform 178, Conservatives 167 and LDs 60.

So Kemi Kingmaker who could make Starmer or Farage PM

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=23&LAB=25&LIB=12&Reform=25&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base

If they're sensible, Reform would insist on PR in order to remain a player (as would the Conservatives).

RochdalePioneers said:

carnforth said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

Not sure that's true. Model Y and Model 3 were 1st and 2nd in EV sales in December. A lot of focus on January sales, but Tesla always sell sell at the start of the quarter.

I have had two. I will not be buying another while that twat is still in charge. Hopefully for the good of the brand he will step down, but he is just not self aware enough

The share price being ten times what it should be, even now, even with everything, is because of Musk. He goes and it's just another car company, valued like the others.

It isn't. A stack of things that make Tesla stand out, not least of which is that they build cars in a way thats almost unique which means they make money per vehicle in ways that many legacy manufacturers can only dream of.

I remain a skeptic of a lot of the automation stuff. But gigacasting and vertical integration? They're a long way ahead of the western competition.

"Almost unique" is something of exaggeration by now, as several Chinese manufacturers operate in a very similar manner.
And note that the leaders in battery manufacturing technology, which is the biggest individual cost of production, are currently (and have been for a while) the Chinese.

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

They won't, it would be Stride or Philp who replaced her if she did go likely by MPs coronation as when Howard replaced IDS or Sunak replaced Truss. Jenrick and Cleverly failed to win either the Tory MPs vote or members vote

Philp?

You cannot be serious!!!!

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

I misread that; Bobby J Cleverly would be a great name.

CharlieShark said:

rottenborough said:

CharlieShark said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

The days of Dan Hodges being right on anything have long gone, if they ever existed. He has a pick and mix of bad and dreadful takes, this being another. Starmer didn't answer the questions and looked liked an arrogant twat. It's not a good look, but I understand why Hodges likes it.

He's not the only jouno:

Ava-Santina

@AvaSantina
·
13m
Striking how poorly researched Kemi Badenoch's PMQs are. Best line was about Labour's new borders watchdog that will apparently WFH in Finland, knocked back by Starmer explaining he was hired and worked from home since 2019 under the Tories. Lack of fact-checking extraordinary.

https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/1889651749339685029

It's PoliticsJoe. Are you trying to tell me that they are some kind of independent journalists, not a group of young left wing metropolitan commentators? Jesus.

How about the political editor of The Sun?

Tory benches look like someone has pissed on their chips

https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1889651606624317493?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

Not sure the Liberals calling for end to free trading seems quite right?

Yes, populist, but not great policy.

One which imposed tariffs on any EV manufacturers who don't set up manufacturing in the UK might be better.
You could have a sliding scale, or even give an exemption on (eg) the first 30k/50k cars a given manufacturer imported, to give them a chance to establish a presence here.
Tesla would hit that wall pretty rapidly.

Tesla would be more likely to up production at Berlin, where there is capacity, I would say. It is mainly Model Ys, which are the main one here, and Tesla German sales are in the toilet.

But UK sales may go the same way.

I don't see us whacking big tariffs on European cars at a time when we are smooching them.

I've been quite surprised at how widely that Led by Donkeys assisted projection of Heil Musky ! onto the Berlin Factory has been appearing. It's all over anti-Tesla anything in the USA.

Nigelb said:

RochdalePioneers said:

carnforth said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SirEd calling for a Tesla tariff...

No point. The brand has been ratnered here.

Not sure that's true. Model Y and Model 3 were 1st and 2nd in EV sales in December. A lot of focus on January sales, but Tesla always sell sell at the start of the quarter.

I have had two. I will not be buying another while that twat is still in charge. Hopefully for the good of the brand he will step down, but he is just not self aware enough

The share price being ten times what it should be, even now, even with everything, is because of Musk. He goes and it's just another car company, valued like the others.

It isn't. A stack of things that make Tesla stand out, not least of which is that they build cars in a way thats almost unique which means they make money per vehicle in ways that many legacy manufacturers can only dream of.

I remain a skeptic of a lot of the automation stuff. But gigacasting and vertical integration? They're a long way ahead of the western competition.

"Almost unique" is something of exaggeration by now, as several Chinese manufacturers operate in a very similar manner.
And note that the leaders in battery manufacturing technology, which is the biggest individual cost of production, are currently (and have been for a while) the Chinese.

Hence my use of the word "almost". From a western manufacturer perspective they are unique. The threat to Tesla as everyone else is from China. They are set up out of the box with the same vertical integration that Tesla have and can churn out new models across multiple brands at an almost ludicrous speed.

Tesla will stand whilst the likes of VAG fall (as Ford and GM et al have fallen before them) - but after that the future is Chinese.

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Continuing the trend of virtual 3-way ties, and the Tories drop slightly back in our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention:

➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
🌹LAB 25% (+1)
🌳CON 23% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( -1)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+2)

Dates 7-10/2 Change with 31-3/2 n=2005

https://x.com/luketryl/status/1889606309508509829?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Gives Labour 187 seats, Reform 178, Conservatives 167 and LDs 60.

So Kemi Kingmaker who could make Starmer or Farage PM

With this trend as it is there is no way that an intervention will not be made. Kemi's replacement may arrest the slide or may not, but it is coming.

Your problem with these snapshots is that by the time we get to an election the Tory seat count is more like 67 than 167 with the trend as it is...

What can an alternative leader really do though? And do any of the potentials have much about them?

Yes they will change at some point, but it won't help them. They are floating off to irrelevance.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CharlieShark said:

rottenborough said:

CharlieShark said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4m
That wasn’t just Kemi Badenoch’s worst performance as leader. It was one of the worst performances ever from a leader of the opposition. She had no capacity to readjust after Starmer gave her a clear and direct answer on the Gaza family. It was embarrassing to watch.

I think Dan's wrong. Kemi might not be great, but she was very specific with her questions. Starmer wouldn't confirm whether the government would appeal the decision or not. It seems to me that he wants to say that the judge got it right and it was badly drafted legislation by the Tories. That is obviously bollocks, and there's nothing to stop an activist judge overriding whatever legislation Cooper comes up with.

The days of Dan Hodges being right on anything have long gone, if they ever existed. He has a pick and mix of bad and dreadful takes, this being another. Starmer didn't answer the questions and looked liked an arrogant twat. It's not a good look, but I understand why Hodges likes it.

He's not the only jouno:

Ava-Santina

@AvaSantina
·
13m
Striking how poorly researched Kemi Badenoch's PMQs are. Best line was about Labour's new borders watchdog that will apparently WFH in Finland, knocked back by Starmer explaining he was hired and worked from home since 2019 under the Tories. Lack of fact-checking extraordinary.

https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/1889651749339685029

It's PoliticsJoe. Are you trying to tell me that they are some kind of independent journalists, not a group of young left wing metropolitan commentators? Jesus.

How about the political editor of The Sun?

Tory benches look like someone has pissed on their chips

https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1889651606624317493?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Can you remind who they backed at the general election?

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

They won't, it would be Stride or Philp who replaced her if she did go likely by MPs coronation as when Howard replaced IDS or Sunak replaced Truss. Jenrick and Cleverly failed to win either the Tory MPs vote or members vote

Philp?

You cannot be serious!!!!

It’ll be Hunt.

Don’t let the oiks have a vote, leave it to the PCP.

Who the fuck is gonna vote for Jeremy Hunt as PM? lol!

It's a suicide note

I actively want the Tories to drop dead but people like you are speeding the process

He’s a canny operator, long serving if not the longest serving Health Secretary, reassured the markets when Truss shat the bed, defeated the Lib Dems in July when most thought he’d be a goner.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

They won't, it would be Stride or Philp who replaced her if she did go likely by MPs coronation as when Howard replaced IDS or Sunak replaced Truss. Jenrick and Cleverly failed to win either the Tory MPs vote or members vote

Philp?

You cannot be serious!!!!

It’ll be Hunt.

Don’t let the oiks have a vote, leave it to the PCP.

Who the fuck is gonna vote for Jeremy Hunt as PM? lol!

It's a suicide note

I actively want the Tories to drop dead but people like you are speeding the process

TSE backs the LDs now anyway.

Hunt would be OK but he wouldn't win, he had little MP support when he stood last term, as I said it would be Shadow Chancellor Stride or Shadow HS Philp

I voted Tory at the last election, I am still a member of the party.

Leon said:

You mean - just as an example - like when I pointed out that Sleepy Joe Biden was gaga from about 2022, and I said "this will be a massive problem for the Dems if they don't fix it", and you kept saying, for another 2 years, "No no no, he just likes dribbling and falling over"

Times like that?

But you weren’t brave enough to predict way back in January 2024 that he’d be replaced before the election, for the PB new year competition, unlike some of us.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

They won't, it would be Stride or Philp who replaced her if she did go likely by MPs coronation as when Howard replaced IDS or Sunak replaced Truss. Jenrick and Cleverly failed to win either the Tory MPs vote or members vote

Philp?

You cannot be serious!!!!

He is intelligent, comes across well on TV and has more gravitas than Kemi.

He is also a Kemi loyalist so if she did go would be an acceptable alternative for Kemi voting party members too (unlike Hunt) as would Stride. Last time the Tories replaced a LOTO midterm it was by their Shadow Chancellor when Howard replaced IDS and Howard of course had also backed IDS over Clarke in 2001 so was also acceptable to IDS voting members

Jenrick, Cleverly, Hunt, Stride, Philp = Bunch of bald men fighting over a comb

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

I used to think that Badenoch was safe until the next GE.

I now think Bobby J or Cleverly are going to be leader by the middle of the parliament.

They won't, it would be Stride or Philp who replaced her if she did go likely by MPs coronation as when Howard replaced IDS or Sunak replaced Truss. Jenrick and Cleverly failed to win either the Tory MPs vote or members vote

Philp?

You cannot be serious!!!!

It’ll be Hunt.

Don’t let the oiks have a vote, leave it to the PCP.

Who the fuck is gonna vote for Jeremy Hunt as PM? lol!

It's a suicide note

I actively want the Tories to drop dead but people like you are speeding the process

TSE backs the LDs now anyway.

Hunt would be OK but he wouldn't win, he had little MP support when he stood last term, as I said it would be Shadow Chancellor Stride or Shadow HS Philp

I voted Tory at the last election, I am still a member of the party.

Maybe but you voted LD in 2017 and 2019 and basically want the Tories to merge with Davey's LDs, whereas Leon wants them to merge with Farage and Reform

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Continuing the trend of virtual 3-way ties, and the Tories drop slightly back in our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention:

➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
🌹LAB 25% (+1)
🌳CON 23% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( -1)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+2)

Dates 7-10/2 Change with 31-3/2 n=2005

https://x.com/luketryl/status/1889606309508509829?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Gives Labour 187 seats, Reform 178, Conservatives 167 and LDs 60.

So Kemi Kingmaker who could make Starmer or Farage PM

With this trend as it is there is no way that an intervention will not be made. Kemi's replacement may arrest the slide or may not, but it is coming.

Your problem with these snapshots is that by the time we get to an election the Tory seat count is more like 67 than 167 with the trend as it is...

No, neither Starmer nor Farage can become PM without Badenoch's support at the moment on the most recent poll.

For all the hand wringing Kemi is on the latest poll potentially the most powerful party leader after the next GE in terms of deciding the next government, IDS had no chance of deciding who would become PM by contrast, nor did Hague

Yes. *The most recent poll* will not be frozen in time so that its a likely result in 2028/9. The most recent poll shows that you are sliding every further away. Even assuming that Kemi stays leader she would be very lucky to be kingmaker. And remember how that worked out for Clegg and the LDs.

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Continuing the trend of virtual 3-way ties, and the Tories drop slightly back in our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention:

➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
🌹LAB 25% (+1)
🌳CON 23% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( -1)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+2)

Dates 7-10/2 Change with 31-3/2 n=2005

https://x.com/luketryl/status/1889606309508509829?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

Gives Labour 187 seats, Reform 178, Conservatives 167 and LDs 60.

So Kemi Kingmaker who could make Starmer or Farage PM

With this trend as it is there is no way that an intervention will not be made. Kemi's replacement may arrest the slide or may not, but it is coming.

Your problem with these snapshots is that by the time we get to an election the Tory seat count is more like 67 than 167 with the trend as it is...

What can an alternative leader really do though? And do any of the potentials have much about them?

Yes they will change at some point, but it won't help them. They are floating off to irrelevance.

It increasingly feels to me like the next GE is shaping up to be a Labour/Reform battle.

The Tories might have a part to play, but I don’t think in current form they’re likely to be in any fit state to really challenge for government next time. Of course, things can change, but I am starting to think the only way that happens is by circumstances outside their control - the main one being a Farage flounce.