Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why their vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
Does anyone else watch/listen to the “podcast” Uncanny?
The case of Hollymount Farm is one of the clearest examples of a haunting I’ve encountered. Still might be total bull, of course
Excellent series. The first is on iPlayer as well. You may think it's bunkum, but it's very entertaining.
Yeah it’s great. A lot of the stories are quite easily explicable (but still entertaining). A few stand out as Whoah
The Battersea Poltergeist was one. Also that terrifying Scottish bothy. And now Hollymount Farm. Brrrr
Danny Robbins is a very gifted presenter - likeable and plausible. Never sensational
Bothies can be deeply unsettling if you're by yourself, no signal and more than a day's walk away from civilisation.
It’s all nonsense. Good fun but nonsense.
The guy who presents Uncanny is fairly decent (although seeing him on tv makes me think of D:Ream); however for me to even vaguely consider the possibility of a ghost it would have to appear in front on me, in broad daylight, and consent to a range of tests in lab conditions. And even then my reaction would be “that’s a bloody good illusion”.
The story always involves someone in a dark, unsettling location, under psychological pressure and/or in search of an easy answer to explain a more profound trauma.
To summarise: I ain’t afraid of no ghost.
For me this is as ludicrously over-confident as someone who insists that QAnon is real
How can you know? How many people screen out jarring or bizarre visual evidence simply because it makes no sense? To their world view?
Check the gorilla on the basketball court - a famous experiment
Or think back to how many people dismissed the idea of a global Covid pandemic until the last moment - because it had never happened before and therefore could never happen
Read the actual words. I am applying sensible scepticism which used to be mainstream until the West started going weird (insert essay here about the death of mainstream religion having a bad side as well as a good one).
If you want me to develop the point, what I am saying is this: no matter how credible the individual seems, if they report that an object moved by itself or a person appeared and disappearing, there are many KNOWN explanations we can reach for before we toy with an unknown one.
I am scientist. I would love us to discover a new complexity to the universe. And as you say, in many ways we know nothing. But anything we discover must be measured and codified to prove that it is something new. Otherwise, we might as well go back to pagan gods.
Ghosts, in the sense of the dead speaking to the living, must also answer the same logic challenge as UFOs. Why do so cryptically and not in the open in front of everyone? If my grandparents could speak to me from beyond the veil, I am confident they would do just that. Politely knock on the door and come in for a chat.
If they are meant to be a sort of “psychic imprint” then why aren’t they everywhere?
Suppose there are realities that cannot be measured and codified. Take this proposition: "On planet earth torturing children for fun is always wrong". Now I think that is true, not because I think it and not because lots of people think it but because its a truth arising from the moral fabric of the universe. I accept I may be wrong. But I don't accept that it stops being true if lots of people stop thinking it or f I stop thinking it. I think it is objectively true. Which would make it as much part of total reality - what makes up the universe - as quarks and oak trees and the law of gravity.
That is exactly what I think, and it requires no extant divinity to think it, as Kant helpfully but not very simply pointed out in about 1790.
So you'll still think it's true even if you stop thinking it's true?
That's imprecise but on the right lines. If the proposition I mentioned is true regardless of any personal opinion anyone might hold (which entails moral objectivity being true, a view held by many interesting people, for example Kant, Aristotle and Iris Murdoch) then I think it is the case that it is is true even in circumstances where I think it is false (as in me being an amoral teenager, a believer in the ethics of David Hume, when drunk, when suffering a psychotic episode, when I am the Southport killer etc). Hope that's clear.
Ie, I propose that 'Torturing children for fun is always wrong' is true, even even in contexts where everyone thinks it's false. It isn't mind dependent.
For all the obvious objections I have some sympathy with your thrust. It's a bit like (although not exactly like) the idea there are certain rights people have which exist (or should exist) over and above democratic politics. Meaning people should not be able to vote them away even if a majority want to. That's something I believe and it isn't a million miles away from what you're driving at.
The denial of ethical objectivism is filled with greater objections, to my mind insurmountable. Like the great ethicist Elizabeth Anscombe I just don't want to be in the same room as people who think that it is only an opinion that there is something wrong about the holocaust (or the Southport murders, or torturing children) and that other opinions have equal weight because there is no measure except our mutable sentiments. That's David Hume's view when he says, incorrectly,
it is not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger
We are, unfortunately, in the same room as people who think ethnic cleansing is OK (whether our room is PB or our room is the West). How do we react to that?
Here are two possibilities: Prefer to be out of the room - that's my preference.
Or, depending on circumstances, what is called ethnic cleansing may be part of a complex big picture (which, say, torturing children for fun is not) in which emerges some complex version of the trolley problem where all possible actions would be inherently immoral individually as also would be doing nothing, so requiring a different order consideration where doing the least possible evil with the greatest possible agreement comes into play. It is at that point that Kant's great enemies the consequentialists come into their own.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
Indeed. Fully deserved too. Thr future is in parties much further right unapolegetic about stopping immigration.
Although, I should say, I question whether they'd be any more effective in stopping it.
To do so would require a mixture of domestic legal reform and international cooperation, plus executive competence and ruthlessness with passive resistance in the public services.
I doubt Reform could package all that.
I agree. Likely not ruthless enough. We need a britain Trump. Perhaps Tommy Robinson.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
You're talking about your analysis.
Look at the share of the vote the Tories got in the post-Brexit elections of GE17 and GE19 compared to the pre-Brexit GE15. The voting coalition changed and it was electorally more potent.
The issue simply was that the Tories failed to control immigration, which was a sine qua non for Brexit in the first place.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
This effect already pertained in 2010 when Cameron won his near majority, and in subsequent years which saw three Tory majorities.
I think some people might get a shock when they find out how often these kind of people are in fact hired into security services and very sensitive roles in the big tech companies. Also they can often go onto developing really interest tech e.g George Hotz spent his youth hacking everything he could find and was immediately offered roles at all the big tech companies.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
Maybe Andrew Tate and Tommy Robinson will be the dreamtickets. Attacking the twin hydras of mass immigration and feminism simultaneously.
That didn't take long
Quite right. Surely the plural of hydra is hydrae.
I think the plural of Hydra is Hydras, because it is a name. If you have two people in the room called Julius you don't say there are two Julii, you say there are two Juliuses. If two named Alexandra you say two Alexandras, not two Alexandrae. But if you have two plants known as a cactus you have two cacti. Language is odd.
But hydra is the LAtin word for watersnake. Though in this case, Algar4kirk is right in calling it a given name because the English idiom comes from the Lernean Hydra that Heracles slew.
And in some contexts you would indeed say there were two Julii in the room, e.g C. Julius Caesar and his adoptive son Octavianus having dinner together.
Maybe Andrew Tate and Tommy Robinson will be the dreamtickets. Attacking the twin hydras of mass immigration and feminism simultaneously.
That didn't take long
Quite right. Surely the plural of hydra is hydrae.
I think the plural of Hydra is Hydras, because it is a name. If you have two people in the room called Julius you don't say there are two Julii, you say there are two Juliuses. If two named Alexandra you say two Alexandras, not two Alexandrae. But if you have two plants known as a cactus you have two cacti. Language is odd.
How would we say the plural of rumpus? Rumpuses seems wrong but so too does rumpi. There must be a word because you can have more than one rumpus.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
Brexit encapsulates this for so many of the former and they simply can't get beyond it.
The irony is, of course, that the intellectual movement for Brexit was led by a minority of the same.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
That was because the 564,443 comprised the entire population if Islington and Hackney. I would expect Ref's membership is slightly more dispersed around the country, albeit heavily concentrated in places like Grimsby and Skegness.
No, I think while the Reform vote is strong there, the membership is only 20% in the Midlands and 20% in the North. It also isn't particularly working class.
I think some people might get a shock when they find out how often these kind of people are in fact hired into security services and very sensitive roles in the big tech companies. Also they can often go onto developing really interest tech e.g George Hotz spent his youth hacking everything he could find and was immediately offered roles at all the big tech companies.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
I think some people might get a shock when they find out how often these kind of people are in fact hired into security services and very sensitive roles in the big tech companies. Also they can often go onto developing really interest tech e.g George Hotz spent his youth hacking everything he could find and was immediately offered roles at all the big tech companies.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
Not really the same though is it?
It literally exactly the same. 16 year genius runs both sides of DDOS business.
Now that doesn't mean you hire him to DOGE now, but it really isn't that uncommon for these kind of teenagers to spend their youth doing this stuff and then turn out to be very useful members of society.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
EDIT: A bit like the Tory MPs who were happy to let BoZo and Dom trash constitutional norms as part of some 4D game they were playing, assuming they were on the winning side.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Very few of those around these days. And Johnson would be a huge risk. Fancy a charity bet (£50?) on this?
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
Remain winning would probably have been better for them simply because it would have avoided the chaos and division which ensued. Yes, it brought the big win in 2019 but at a ruinous price for the party. Of course, as with all counterfactuals, we can never know.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Is that really true, though. With Boris on the ballot, I think there’s probably several seats like - I don’t know - Tewkesbury - that are safe enough.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
This effect already pertained in 2010 when Cameron won his near majority, and in subsequent years which saw three Tory majorities.
If you look closely, even in 2010, you see the Conservatives getting a below average swing in what we could call urban intellectual constituencies, and an above average one, in what would subsequently be termed, Red Wall seats. That continued the trend of the Thatcher years. Seats like Leeds NE and NW, Exeter, Brighton Pavilion, Birmingham Edgbaston, Bristol West were by then, out of reach.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Very few of those around these days. And Johnson would be a huge risk. Fancy a charity bet (£50?) on this?
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Besides, Boriswave.
I don't know who coined the term, I'm not totally sure it's fair, but it's a technically brilliant bit of negative marketing.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Apart from whether one holds a membership card or not: is Mr Johnson a Tory? Is anyone a Tory? What's a Tory these days that one should vote for that candidate? The party has been pounded and pummelled and pushed around more than a - er, a kindergarten's supply of play-dough.
I think some people might get a shock when they find out how often these kind of people are in fact hired into security services and very sensitive roles in the big tech companies. Also they can often go onto developing really interest tech e.g George Hotz spent his youth hacking everything he could find and was immediately offered roles at all the big tech companies.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
Not really the same though is it?
It literally exactly the same. 16 year genius runs both sides of DDOS business.
Now that doesn't mean you hire him to DOGE now, but it really isn't that uncommon for these kind of teenagers to spend their youth doing this stuff and then turn out to be very useful members of society.
It is literally completely different.
Evidence for Edward Coristine being a genius? And is his role at DOGE protecting from DDoS attacks?
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Besides, Boriswave.
I don't know who coined the term, I'm not totally sure it's fair, but it's a technically brilliant bit of negative marketing.
Boris’s genius is that he can turn such things around.
I can imagine him claiming with a straight face that he merely wanted to let in the Ukrainians and Hong Kongers while activist judges and loony lefties thwarted his honest attempts to deliver the immigration levels people voted for in 2016.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
Remain winning would probably have been better for them simply because it would have avoided the chaos and division which ensued. Yes, it brought the big win in 2019 but at a ruinous price for the party. Of course, as with all counterfactuals, we can never know.
My view is that something similar to what we saw in Scotland, in 2015, would have been replicated, South of the Border, in the subsequent election, had Remain won, say 55/45.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Is that really true, though. With Boris on the ballot, I think there’s probably several seats like - I don’t know - Tewkesbury - that are safe enough.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Very few of those around these days. And Johnson would be a huge risk. Fancy a charity bet (£50?) on this?
Yes, why not?
Thanks and we used to record these with @ptp, but as both of us are honourable gentlemen and it’s only a charitable wager, we can manage informally, despite 4 1/2 years being an age!
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Ironically, the most secure Tory seats are probably now in Scotland.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
First he has to be chosen as the candidate by the constituency. Do they need to be approved by CCHQ these days? I forget.
And after being elected he has to win the Party leadership election.
Tories being smaller means fewer chances to fight a by election in a seat where they actually won last time.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
I think some people might get a shock when they find out how often these kind of people are in fact hired into security services and very sensitive roles in the big tech companies. Also they can often go onto developing really interest tech e.g George Hotz spent his youth hacking everything he could find and was immediately offered roles at all the big tech companies.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
Not really the same though is it?
It literally exactly the same. 16 year genius runs both sides of DDOS business.
Now that doesn't mean you hire him to DOGE now, but it really isn't that uncommon for these kind of teenagers to spend their youth doing this stuff and then turn out to be very useful members of society.
It is literally completely different.
Evidence for Edward Coristine being a genius? And is his role at DOGE protecting from DDoS attacks?
At 16 year olds, running a series of business both deploying and protecting against DDOS, is not normal 16 year old level. He appears to have then been hired to work at Neuralink etc. Most 16 year olds are vaping and shagging and can't even do their own washing. I am going to go with genius level.
As I say, that doesn't mean you should hire him for DOGE. My point it isn't that uncommon for these kind of people who did dodgy stuff on the internet, game cracking, running CDNs for illegal content etc, end up going places.
Sean Parker, the guy behind Napster, he is Managing Partner at The Founders Fund and a President at Facebook.
George Hotz has a self driving car company whose capabilities rival Tesla (and unlike Musk he doesn't overpromise i.e. is very clear it is smart driver assist at the moment) and now set sights on shaking up ML frameworks.
I went to uni with somebody similar, they were hired by GCHQ.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Is that really true, though. With Boris on the ballot, I think there’s probably several seats like - I don’t know - Tewkesbury - that are safe enough.
Tewkesbury is held by the Lib Dems.
Ha, is it? Well I’m sure someone can provide somewhere - likely in the Midlands - that Boris would appeal to. For some reason it seems hard to find a sortable list on the web of Tory majorities.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
I agree. I don't think the time is right just yet, but in a couple of years I suspect that the Tories will be desperate enough to grasp at that straw.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Ironically, the most secure Tory seats are probably now in Scotland.
I think the safest Tory seat is Richmond, if Sunak quits then Mordaunt, JRM, et al will be all angling for that seat.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Ironically, the most secure Tory seats are probably now in Scotland.
I was just mulling over the thought of Mr J. doing a Churchill and heading north - in this case probably Dumfries and Galloway or DCT. Not entirely convinced, given his unwise remarks about Scotland in the past, esp. wanting to shut down Holyrood.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
In theory this is true, but Reform don’t have an endless supply of political superstars. Who are they going to put up against Boris? Anne Widdecombe?
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Very few of those around these days. And Johnson would be a huge risk. Fancy a charity bet (£50?) on this?
Yes, why not?
Thanks and we used to record these with @ptp, but as both of us are honourable gentlemen and it’s only a charitable wager, we can manage informally, despite 4 1/2 years being an age!
A mere eye-blink! I may even be back in the UK by then, depending how disruptive Trump gets…
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Is that really true, though. With Boris on the ballot, I think there’s probably several seats like - I don’t know - Tewkesbury - that are safe enough.
But why would any of them have a by-election?
Four things need to happen and the odds of all.4 aligning is miniscule.
1. The by-election needs to happen. 2. Boris has to choose to run. 3. Boris has to be selected. 4. Boris has to win.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
In theory this is true, but Reform don’t have an endless supply of political superstars. Who are they going to put up against Boris? Anne Widdecombe?
Michelle Ballantyne might have had a go in the Borders (she lived [edit] on Tweedside) but she's parted brass rags with Reform.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Absolutely hilarious.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
Remain winning would probably have been better for them simply because it would have avoided the chaos and division which ensued. Yes, it brought the big win in 2019 but at a ruinous price for the party. Of course, as with all counterfactuals, we can never know.
My view is that something similar to what we saw in Scotland, in 2015, would have been replicated, South of the Border, in the subsequent election, had Remain won, say 55/45.
So a Ukip landslide then? Oh god. So we had a Referendum where the choice was (i) Brexit or (ii) Farage PM.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
In theory this is true, but Reform don’t have an endless supply of political superstars. Who are they going to put up against Boris? Anne Widdecombe?
What if Johnson is the Reform candidate? How does your bet resolve then?
Maybe Andrew Tate and Tommy Robinson will be the dreamtickets. Attacking the twin hydras of mass immigration and feminism simultaneously.
That didn't take long
Quite right. Surely the plural of hydra is hydrae.
I think the plural of Hydra is Hydras, because it is a name. If you have two people in the room called Julius you don't say there are two Julii, you say there are two Juliuses. If two named Alexandra you say two Alexandras, not two Alexandrae. But if you have two plants known as a cactus you have two cacti. Language is odd.
How would we say the plural of rumpus? Rumpuses seems wrong but so too does rumpi. There must be a word because you can have more than one rumpus.
Apparently it is not of Latin or Greek derivation so we are on our own in deciding the plural. I would go for rumpusen, as in oxen, or reempus as in geese. Though the Greek sounding rumpoi (as in hoi polloi) has a nice ring, with its faint but discernible nod to Rumpole.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
This effect already pertained in 2010 when Cameron won his near majority, and in subsequent years which saw three Tory majorities.
If you look closely, even in 2010, you see the Conservatives getting a below average swing in what we could call urban intellectual constituencies, and an above average one, in what would subsequently be termed, Red Wall seats. That continued the trend of the Thatcher years. Seats like Leeds NE and NW, Exeter, Brighton Pavilion, Birmingham Edgbaston, Bristol West were by then, out of reach.
Yes, indeed so. And I recall much of the narrative being that the Conservatives couldn't govern as they had no seats in Newcastle, Birmingham or Manchester.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Is that really true, though. With Boris on the ballot, I think there’s probably several seats like - I don’t know - Tewkesbury - that are safe enough.
But why would any of them have a by-election?
Four things need to happen and the odds of all.4 aligning is miniscule.
1. The by-election needs to happen. 2. Boris has to choose to run. 3. Boris has to be selected. 4. Boris has to win.
Any of those 4 fail and it doesn't happen.
I'd say less than 5% chance that all 4 occur.
I highly doubt Boris has forsaken his political ambitions, So all we need is:
1. Tory party, or a powerful faction is desperate 2. By-election is enabled by Boris-sympathetic MP standing down 3. Tory HQ intervenes to ensure Boris is selected 4. Boris wins
Of course I hate and even fear Boris. He caused extreme damage to the UK in the space of just a few years. But the above seems eminently possible to me, and even probable.
I think some people might get a shock when they find out how often these kind of people are in fact hired into security services and very sensitive roles in the big tech companies. Also they can often go onto developing really interest tech e.g George Hotz spent his youth hacking everything he could find and was immediately offered roles at all the big tech companies.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
Not really the same though is it?
It literally exactly the same. 16 year genius runs both sides of DDOS business.
Now that doesn't mean you hire him to DOGE now, but it really isn't that uncommon for these kind of teenagers to spend their youth doing this stuff and then turn out to be very useful members of society.
It is literally completely different.
Evidence for Edward Coristine being a genius? And is his role at DOGE protecting from DDoS attacks?
At 16 year olds, running a series of business both deploying and protecting against DDOS, is not normal 16 year old level. He appears to have then been hired to work at Neuralink etc. I am going to go with genius level.
As I say, that doesn't mean you should hire him for DOGE. My point it isn't that uncommon for these kind of people who did dodgy stuff on the internet, game cracking, running CDNs for illegal content etc, end up going places.
Sean Parker, the guy behind Napster, he is Managing Partner at The Founders Fund and a President at Facebook.
George Hotz has a self driving car company whose capabilities rival Tesla (and unlike Musk he doesn't overpromise i.e. is very clear it is smart driver assist at the moment) and now set sights on shacking up ML framework.
I went to uni with somebody similar, they were hired by GCHQ.
There's a lot of assumptions there. "a series of business both deploying and protecting against DDOS" might just be a kid with good business instincts or contacts, and script-kiddie levels. We don't know, until more info comes in about what the businesses were doing.
And these techbroes don't necessarily employ geniuses: they employ people like them.
I'm not saying he's not a genius; just that 'genius' is a very easy word to call someone. And also that, even if he is a genius at business and tech, he's also very young, and will be lacking many other vital skills that his new role may need if it is not to be a disaster.
And I, like you and others on PB, have worked with people who are actual geniuses.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
In theory this is true, but Reform don’t have an endless supply of political superstars. Who are they going to put up against Boris? Anne Widdecombe?
What if Johnson is the Reform candidate? How does your bet resolve then?
That seems unlikely to me. I’m happy to refine my bet such that Boris wins a by-election for the *Tories*.
As a patriot, it must be cause significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
I think the main reason he and SeanT lose their shit every time I post is cause deep down they know I am right
No, it's because you're a angry, relentless and fucking boring fanatic. You contribute nothing to the site but "Brexit is shit", day-in, day-out, with blood-vessel bursting spleen and we all try and avoid you and ignore it.
When we tease you about it (and we do) you drop the F-bomb all too readily, which shows that you're really the one with the problem.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
Liked, but also wanted to comment as i thought that an excellent point said in very few words.
It was a genuine movement. Didn't get walloped first time around. A slightly cannier operator probably would have won. I always wonder if it had been John McDonald as the leader, Magic Grandpa as the sidekick, as McDonald will allow himself to say things that are against his real principles for longer term goals ...
My head canon says John McDonald would have worn in 2017 and Bernie Sanders would have won in 2016. But the party higher-ups prevented both. Which just goes to show.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
There are no seats that Boris could win in a by-election that wouldn’t be won by Reform.
A majority voted for it. Two further General Elections confirmed it. And Reform/Tory voting intention - both Brexit parties - are currently at near 50%.
It's over. You lost. Your world view lost. Your political ideals lost. Your side lost. We're never going back in. And you just can't accept it.
It was a genuine movement. Didn't get walloped first time around. A slightly cannier operator probably would have won. I always wonder if it had been John McDonald as the leader, Magic Grandpa as the sidekick, as McDonald will allow himself to say things that are against his real principles for longer term goals ...
My head canon says John McDonald would have worn in 2017 and Bernie Sanders would have won in 2016. But the party higher-ups prevented both. Which just goes to show.
No, Burnham might have won but not McDonald. Sanders was too leftwing for the US
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Ironically, the most secure Tory seats are probably now in Scotland.
I think the safest Tory seat is Richmond, if Sunak quits then Mordaunt, JRM, et al will be all angling for that seat.
If you fancy playing, the list here can be sorted by majority;
Richmond is the safest Conservative seat in England.
If I were Boris, I might try and ease myself into Harrow East- the only Conservative seat with an absolute majority (53.3% of the vote).
East Surrey, as well as being harsh on the relatively blameless Claire Coutinho, wouldn't work. Coutinho was saved by a split opposition (C 17.5k, L 10k, LD 9k) and that wouldn't survive a by-election.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Absolutely hilarious.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
You need to learn to accept it, and live with it.
I am glad you are “delighted”. You are known for your rage problems on here so I am happy you may be finding a sense of peace.
Since you are not completely thick, you’ll probably realise that I do not actually advocate for Rejoin. So in that sense I am “living with it”.
Although I “live with it” in the U.S. now, of course. Brexit is not the main cause of that, although it it probably played a small part.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
Yet the CDU are likely to clearly win most seats at the German election later this month with the support of the private sector middle class and retired in particular.
Centre left parties are also hit by the working classes moving culturally right
It was a genuine movement. Didn't get walloped first time around. A slightly cannier operator probably would have won. I always wonder if it had been John McDonald as the leader, Magic Grandpa as the sidekick, as McDonald will allow himself to say things that are against his real principles for longer term goals ...
My head canon says John McDonald would have worn in 2017 and Bernie Sanders would have won in 2016. But the party higher-ups prevented both. Which just goes to show.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
In particular I don't think there is a seat Boris can win but Reform can't. There are seats where respectively Boris, despite having a chance, can be beaten by Lab, LD, Reform or SNP. But the olden days of just recently where there would be a few seats he just couldn't lose, have gone.
In theory this is true, but Reform don’t have an endless supply of political superstars. Who are they going to put up against Boris? Anne Widdecombe?
What if Johnson is the Reform candidate? How does your bet resolve then?
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Ironically, the most secure Tory seats are probably now in Scotland.
I think the safest Tory seat is Richmond, if Sunak quits then Mordaunt, JRM, et al will be all angling for that seat.
If you fancy playing, the list here can be sorted by majority;
Richmond is the safest Conservative seat in England.
If I were Boris, I might try and ease myself into Harrow East- the only Conservative seat with an absolute majority (53.3% of the vote).
East Surrey, as well as being harsh on the relatively blameless Claire Coutinho, wouldn't work. Coutinho was saved by a split opposition (C 17.5k, L 10k, LD 9k) and that wouldn't survive a by-election.
I don’t think the Boris brand has quite the same reach in places like Surrey (or Richmond).
You need to find one of those forgotten, lower-middle-class places in the Midlands.
It’s very confusing as to what, exactly, Musk and others are actually doing. The argument right now is about access to data and systems, but the counter argument I suppose is that they are authorised under presidential fiat.
Separately, one could argue that the shuttering of U.S. Aid and other entities like the Department of Education was promised by Trump on the campaign trail.
It’s all a bit messy and abstract to the average voter right now.
There are explicit USA laws which Musk & co are simply ignoring, which I think will become clear to voters. When other things feed through, such as the husband who's wife is being deported after he voted for Trump, or the price of insulin goes back through the roof, or veterans lose their payments, or any amount of other things, or farmers have their workforces deported, it may all become perceived more sharply.
Whether Trump supporters are interested, or have swallowed false narratives, is perhaps a pertinent question.
An example is the law that requires Congress to be given 30 days notice of any move to remove Inspectors General (who are internal regulators in the Civil Service to ensure it is operated legally) - that is the Inspector General Reform Act of 2008 (P.L. 110-409). Separate law requires substantive reasons for removal to be given, which has also been ignored. They were introduced in the mid-1970s with the aim of preventing repeats of the Nixon abuses. Nonetheless Musk and Trump removed them summarily.
Another example is the destruction of USAID is today the subject of a major lawsuit about violation of clauses of the Constitution, and laws designed to provide checks and balances, such as the Administrative Procedures Act (APA).
There's discussion from Popok here, which is opinionated so some may find triggering, but he is a career lawyer and usually correct on his facts. This is lawsuit no 35 (his count) and so far the Trump regime have lost all that have come to a result or interim result.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
He won't for the foreseeable, CCHQ will continue to block him from the approved Conservative parliamentary candidates list.
He also blew it by massively expanding non EU immigration
It’s very confusing as to what, exactly, Musk and others are actually doing. The argument right now is about access to data and systems, but the counter argument I suppose is that they are authorised under presidential fiat.
Separately, one could argue that the shuttering of U.S. Aid and other entities like the Department of Education was promised by Trump on the campaign trail.
It’s all a bit messy and abstract to the average voter right now.
There are explicit USA laws which Musk & co are simply ignoring, which I think will become clear to voters. Whether Trump supporters are interested, or have swallowed false narratives, is perhaps a pertinent question.
An example is the law that requires Congress to be given 30 days notice of any move to remove Inspectors General (who are internal regulators in the Civil Service to ensure it is operated legally) - that is the Inspector General Reform Act of 2008 (P.L. 110-409). Separate law They were introduced in the mid-1970s with the aim of preventing repeats of the Nixon abuses. Nonetheless Musk and Trump removed them summarily.
Another example is the destruction of USAID is today the subject of a major lawsuit about violation of clauses of the Constitution, and laws designed to provide checks and balances, such as the Administrative Procedures Act (APA).
There's discussion from Popok here, which is opinionated so some may find triggering, but he is a career lawyer and usually correct on his facts. This is lawsuit no 35 (his count) and so far the Trump regime have lost all that have come to a result or interim result.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
That last sentence is a bit harsh @Casino_Royale, but your point is accurate. We are very good at targeting, which limits the potential wins. That limit of course varies of course depending upon national standings, but it will be limited to what we target.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Absolutely hilarious.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
You need to learn to accept it, and live with it.
I am glad you are “delighted”. You are known for your rage problems on here so I am happy you may be finding a sense of peace.
Since you are not completely thick, you’ll probably realise that I do not actually advocate for Rejoin. So in that sense I am “living with it”.
Although I “live with it” in the U.S. now, of course. Brexit is not the main cause of that, although it it probably played a small part.
I'm not showing any sign of rage on here.
@ScottP on the other hand and you, when self-provoked, are fantastic examples, though.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
In a “safe” seat, yes.
Right now, there is no safe Tory seat.
Ironically, the most secure Tory seats are probably now in Scotland.
I think the safest Tory seat is Richmond, if Sunak quits then Mordaunt, JRM, et al will be all angling for that seat.
If you fancy playing, the list here can be sorted by majority;
Richmond is the safest Conservative seat in England.
If I were Boris, I might try and ease myself into Harrow East- the only Conservative seat with an absolute majority (53.3% of the vote).
East Surrey, as well as being harsh on the relatively blameless Claire Coutinho, wouldn't work. Coutinho was saved by a split opposition (C 17.5k, L 10k, LD 9k) and that wouldn't survive a by-election.
I don’t think the Boris brand has quite the same reach in places like Surrey (or Richmond).
You need to find one of those forgotten, lower-middle-class places in the Midlands.
Perhaps he will surprise and serve several years as the dedicated constituency MP for Barnsley. The John Profumo approach to rehabilitation.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Absolutely hilarious.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
You need to learn to accept it, and live with it.
I am glad you are “delighted”. You are known for your rage problems on here so I am happy you may be finding a sense of peace.
Since you are not completely thick, you’ll probably realise that I do not actually advocate for Rejoin. So in that sense I am “living with it”.
Although I “live with it” in the U.S. now, of course. Brexit is not the main cause of that, although it it probably played a small part.
I'm not showing any sign of rage on here.
@ScottP on the other hand and you, when self-provoked, are fantastic examples, though.
The veins on your neck pop out every time you repeat “You lost, we won!”, or variants thereof.
Which is a lot.
Although the Tories themselves no longer look much like winners, and may not ever again, which was the original point made.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
Brexit destroyed the 2015 Cameron coalition, which is why there vote totally collapsed in Tooting, Brighton etc. 2017 onwards. Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall. The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
100%. Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
You see him winning a by-election?
There are no seats that Boris could win in a by-election that wouldn’t be won by Reform.
Yep. Any Tory seat in a by election will either be a Reform target or a LD target.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
I think that the Conservatives can’t really cope (and the same is true of many Western centre-right parties), with the upper middle classes moving left, while the lower classes move right.
I hadn't thought about it in those terms, but it does seem to fit their current circumstances. And if millenials don't turn right as they are, they are in even bigger trouble.
It’s very confusing as to what, exactly, Musk and others are actually doing. The argument right now is about access to data and systems, but the counter argument I suppose is that they are authorised under presidential fiat.
Separately, one could argue that the shuttering of U.S. Aid and other entities like the Department of Education was promised by Trump on the campaign trail.
It’s all a bit messy and abstract to the average voter right now.
There are explicit USA laws which Musk & co are simply ignoring, which I think will become clear to voters. Whether Trump supporters are interested, or have swallowed false narratives, is perhaps a pertinent question.
An example is the law that requires Congress to be given 30 days notice of any move to remove Inspectors General (who are internal regulators in the Civil Service to ensure it is operated legally) - that is the Inspector General Reform Act of 2008 (P.L. 110-409). Separate law They were introduced in the mid-1970s with the aim of preventing repeats of the Nixon abuses. Nonetheless Musk and Trump removed them summarily.
Another example is the destruction of USAID is today the subject of a major lawsuit about violation of clauses of the Constitution, and laws designed to provide checks and balances, such as the Administrative Procedures Act (APA).
There's discussion from Popok here, which is opinionated so some may find triggering, but he is a career lawyer and usually correct on his facts. This is lawsuit no 35 (his count) and so far the Trump regime have lost all that have come to a result or interim result.
I agree but the average voter glazes over when he (or she) reads your second paragraph.
I actually think the “Resistance” is currently licking its wounds, waiting and watching. It’s not quite sure how it will manifest.
I think there was a comment in the Anne Applebaum Bulwark interview I posted the other day that destruction was currently happening to lives inside several buildings in Washington - so that's a fair comment.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Absolutely hilarious.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
You need to learn to accept it, and live with it.
I am glad you are “delighted”. You are known for your rage problems on here so I am happy you may be finding a sense of peace.
Since you are not completely thick, you’ll probably realise that I do not actually advocate for Rejoin. So in that sense I am “living with it”.
Although I “live with it” in the U.S. now, of course. Brexit is not the main cause of that, although it it probably played a small part.
I'm not showing any sign of rage on here.
@ScottP on the other hand and you, when self-provoked, are fantastic examples, though.
The veins on your neck pop out every time you repeat “You lost, we won!”, or variants thereof.
Which is a lot.
Although the Tories themselves no longer look much like winners, and may not ever again, which was the original point made.
The veins on your neck pop out every time the Tories are mentioned because you want to associate every failing of theirs with Brexit, and you think that linking the two is the best possible mechanism to turn around Tory loyalist opinion to your desired political outcome: reversal.
You just can't stand being called out on it.
You can be assured I will keep doing it every single time you try it.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
I dunno. A fuck of a lot of us are REALLY ANGRY
I know, but the question is are you @Leon going to do something about it and join and get out there and deliver leaflets, canvas, knock up, put up poster boards. If not, why not? We do.
If not it make me point doesn't it. Reform might. There are some signs of their activity, but there has to be a lot more. Membership does not equal Activists.
Meaningless unless they can get them out campaigning. Compare LD membership to Tory membership (particularly in the past when the Tories had mass membership) and then look at campaigning ability. Having said that Reform have said they want to copy LD campaigning and their literature has been good, but can they get these people active. I suspect most won't be.
More members means more money, and a wider pool to choose candidates from.
I don’t doubt that in the right constituency, in by election conditions, the Lib Dem’s would out-campaign them.
But across a couple of hundred constituencies, and with their social media presence, Reform would probably do better.
Yes, the Lib Dems campaigning ability is almost legendary but it's exaggerated.
They are very good at hypertargetting a handful of seats over a period of time or in by-elections.
But they are not a national movement.
Nor are the Tories, anymore, it seems.
The Tories are facing extinction.
I think their failure to control migration during the last parliament might be terminal for them.
And Brexit, which fatally weakened their support in southern shires. All roads lead to one Boris Johnson.
Yet, I expect to see him back before the next election.
No, it has nothing to do with Brexit.
The collapse of the Tories and the rise of Farage’s Reform, has nothing to do with Brexit?
This is Comical Ali level analysis.
If the Conservatives had stood firm against any kind of referendum on EU membership, I think UKIP would have overhauled them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
There’s never a single cause. You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
You only think it a blunder because it was lost.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
At the end of the day, historians will relate that millions of voters consigned their own country to years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, political disintegration and diplomatic decline.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
Absolutely hilarious.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
You need to learn to accept it, and live with it.
I am glad you are “delighted”. You are known for your rage problems on here so I am happy you may be finding a sense of peace.
Since you are not completely thick, you’ll probably realise that I do not actually advocate for Rejoin. So in that sense I am “living with it”.
Although I “live with it” in the U.S. now, of course. Brexit is not the main cause of that, although it it probably played a small part.
I'm not showing any sign of rage on here.
@ScottP on the other hand and you, when self-provoked, are fantastic examples, though.
The veins on your neck pop out every time you repeat “You lost, we won!”, or variants thereof.
Which is a lot.
Although the Tories themselves no longer look much like winners, and may not ever again, which was the original point made.
The veins on your neck pop out every time the Tories are mentioned because you want to associate every failing of theirs with Brexit, and you think that linking the two is the best possible mechanism to turn around Tory loyalist opinion to your desired political outcome: reversal.
You just can't stand being called out on it.
You can be assured I will keep doing it every single time you try it.
I’m on record - quite a bit, I think - as rejecting rejoin. You must be confusing me with a poster of your own fabrication and fantasy.
Essentially says they have uncovered billions of USD in fraud and waste in just the Treasury alone and shows how they managed to circumvent the usual bureaucratic delaying tactics.
"Everything at Treasury was geared towards complaint minimization," Musk revealed after meeting with officials. Not accuracy. Not accountability. Not protecting taxpayer dollars. Just keeping the machine quiet.
This wasn't incompetence. This was design.
Previous management had built a perfect system:
Let the fraudsters complain. Let them threaten. Let them pressure.
Easier to process bad payments than face their wrath.
Essentially says they have uncovered billions of USD in fraud and waste in just the Treasury alone and shows how they managed to circumvent the usual bureaucratic delaying tactics.
"Everything at Treasury was geared towards complaint minimization," Musk revealed after meeting with officials. Not accuracy. Not accountability. Not protecting taxpayer dollars. Just keeping the machine quiet.
This wasn't incompetence. This was design.
Previous management had built a perfect system:
Let the fraudsters complain. Let them threaten. Let them pressure.
Easier to process bad payments than face their wrath.
If DOGE was serious about investigating possible fraud then they would employ forensic accountants not student programmers.
Comments
Failing to deliver on the 'promises of Brexit' destroyed the new coalition Boris put together in 2019, which is why they are now nowhere in the Red Wall.
The bind the Tories are in is that it's difficult to see how they can rebuild either coalition. Both liberals and social conservative, anti-immigration voters hate them.
So, yes it’s Brexit, but it goes wider than Brexit.
Or, depending on circumstances, what is called ethnic cleansing may be part of a complex big picture (which, say, torturing children for fun is not) in which emerges some complex version of the trolley problem where all possible actions would be inherently immoral individually as also would be doing nothing, so requiring a different order consideration where doing the least possible evil with the greatest possible agreement comes into play. It is at that point that Kant's great enemies the consequentialists come into their own.
Pretty much what I wrote upthread.
And there’s no policy pivot that can rescue this situation, only brute political charisma. Which is why, despite fathering this collapse, Boris will be back.
Look at the share of the vote the Tories got in the post-Brexit elections of GE17 and GE19 compared to the pre-Brexit GE15. The voting coalition changed and it was electorally more potent.
The issue simply was that the Tories failed to control immigration, which was a sine qua non for Brexit in the first place.
A senior person from Microsoft told me how they hired a team of Eastern Europeans who provided DDOS and hacking services as prefer to have them in the tent pissing out. Also the way these people are wired, they see things normie coders just don't.
And in some contexts you would indeed say there were two Julii in the room, e.g C. Julius Caesar and his adoptive son Octavianus having dinner together.
No, I'm not impressed either.
You could even blame smartphones.
The referendum was a massive blunder by Cameron, not necessarily the fact it happened, since a referendum was long-desired by a goodly percentage of the British public, but the way it was carried out.
A world-historical blunder.
But, we a replaying old arguments.
The irony is, of course, that the intellectual movement for Brexit was led by a minority of the same.
Your boys took a hell of a beating, and rightly so.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/reform-members
Now that doesn't mean you hire him to DOGE now, but it really isn't that uncommon for these kind of teenagers to spend their youth doing this stuff and then turn out to be very useful members of society.
You are one of them.
As a patriot, it must be a cause of significant cognitive dissonance and even psychological distress, which perhaps explains your various flare-ups.
https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1888626414837997941
EDIT: A bit like the Tory MPs who were happy to let BoZo and Dom trash constitutional norms as part of some 4D game they were playing, assuming they were on the winning side.
And look at them now...
With Boris on the ballot, I think there’s probably several seats like - I don’t know - Tewkesbury - that are safe enough.
https://x.com/tkl_adam/status/1888237290574450808?s=61
I don't know who coined the term, I'm not totally sure it's fair, but it's a technically brilliant bit of negative marketing.
It is literally completely different.
Evidence for Edward Coristine being a genius? And is his role at DOGE protecting from DDoS attacks?
I can imagine him claiming with a straight face that he merely wanted to let in the Ukrainians and Hong Kongers while activist judges and loony lefties thwarted his honest attempts to deliver the immigration levels people voted for in 2016.
And after being elected he has to win the Party leadership election.
Tories being smaller means fewer chances to fight a by election in a seat where they actually won last time.
As I say, that doesn't mean you should hire him for DOGE. My point it isn't that uncommon for these kind of people who did dodgy stuff on the internet, game cracking, running CDNs for illegal content etc, end up going places.
Sean Parker, the guy behind Napster, he is Managing Partner at The Founders Fund and a President at Facebook.
George Hotz has a self driving car company whose capabilities rival Tesla (and unlike Musk he doesn't overpromise i.e. is very clear it is smart driver assist at the moment) and now set sights on shaking up ML frameworks.
I went to uni with somebody similar, they were hired by GCHQ.
Four things need to happen and the odds of all.4 aligning is miniscule.
1. The by-election needs to happen.
2. Boris has to choose to run.
3. Boris has to be selected.
4. Boris has to win.
Any of those 4 fail and it doesn't happen.
I'd say less than 5% chance that all 4 occur.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo
Edit: scrub the hotel, I must be thinking of someone else.
It's you who keeps bringing up Brexit, not me, because you've never got over it.
You are not alone. Our membership of the EU is finished. Over. Forever.
That's what I wanted. And I am delighted about it.
You need to learn to accept it, and live with it.
NEW THREAD
That sounds like blackmail.
So all we need is:
1. Tory party, or a powerful faction is desperate
2. By-election is enabled by Boris-sympathetic MP standing down
3. Tory HQ intervenes to ensure Boris is selected
4. Boris wins
Of course I hate and even fear Boris.
He caused extreme damage to the UK in the space of just a few years.
But the above seems eminently possible to me, and even probable.
And these techbroes don't necessarily employ geniuses: they employ people like them.
I'm not saying he's not a genius; just that 'genius' is a very easy word to call someone. And also that, even if he is a genius at business and tech, he's also very young, and will be lacking many other vital skills that his new role may need if it is not to be a disaster.
And I, like you and others on PB, have worked with people who are actual geniuses.
I’m happy to refine my bet such that Boris wins a by-election for the *Tories*.
When we tease you about it (and we do) you drop the F-bomb all too readily, which shows that you're really the one with the problem.
It's over. You lost. Your world view lost. Your political ideals lost. Your side lost. We're never going back in. And you just can't accept it.
It's time you made peace with it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Richmond is the safest Conservative seat in England.
If I were Boris, I might try and ease myself into Harrow East- the only Conservative seat with an absolute majority (53.3% of the vote).
East Surrey, as well as being harsh on the relatively blameless Claire Coutinho, wouldn't work. Coutinho was saved by a split opposition (C 17.5k, L 10k, LD 9k) and that wouldn't survive a by-election.
You are known for your rage problems on here so I am happy you may be finding a sense of peace.
Since you are not completely thick, you’ll probably realise that I do not actually advocate for Rejoin. So in that sense I am “living with it”.
Although I “live with it” in the U.S. now, of course.
Brexit is not the main cause of that, although it it probably played a small part.
Centre left parties are also hit by the working classes moving culturally right
You need to find one of those forgotten, lower-middle-class places in the Midlands.
Whether Trump supporters are interested, or have swallowed false narratives, is perhaps a pertinent question.
An example is the law that requires Congress to be given 30 days notice of any move to remove Inspectors General (who are internal regulators in the Civil Service to ensure it is operated legally) - that is the Inspector General Reform Act of 2008 (P.L. 110-409). Separate law requires substantive reasons for removal to be given, which has also been ignored. They were introduced in the mid-1970s with the aim of preventing repeats of the Nixon abuses. Nonetheless Musk and Trump removed them summarily.
Another example is the destruction of USAID is today the subject of a major lawsuit about violation of clauses of the Constitution, and laws designed to provide checks and balances, such as the Administrative Procedures Act (APA).
There's discussion from Popok here, which is opinionated so some may find triggering, but he is a career lawyer and usually correct on his facts. This is lawsuit no 35 (his count) and so far the Trump regime have lost all that have come to a result or interim result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-F6bwVpla-8
He also blew it by massively expanding non EU immigration
I actually think the “Resistance” is currently licking its wounds, waiting and watching. It’s not quite sure how it will manifest.
@ScottP on the other hand and you, when self-provoked, are fantastic examples, though.
Which is a lot.
Although the Tories themselves no longer look much like winners, and may not ever again, which was the original point made.
It will work through in due course.
You just can't stand being called out on it.
You can be assured I will keep doing it every single time you try it.
If not it make me point doesn't it. Reform might. There are some signs of their activity, but there has to be a lot more. Membership does not equal Activists.
You must be confusing me with a poster of your own fabrication and fantasy.
Which I imagine happens quite a bit.
https://eko.substack.com/p/override
https://eko.substack.com/p/the-machine-fights-back
Essentially says they have uncovered billions of USD in fraud and waste in just the Treasury alone and shows how they managed to circumvent the usual bureaucratic delaying tactics.
"Everything at Treasury was geared towards complaint minimization," Musk revealed after meeting with officials. Not accuracy. Not accountability. Not protecting taxpayer dollars. Just keeping the machine quiet.
This wasn't incompetence. This was design.
Previous management had built a perfect system:
Let the fraudsters complain. Let them threaten. Let them pressure.
Easier to process bad payments than face their wrath.