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Next PM betting, Farage remains the favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    edited February 5
    TimS said:

    “Our land”. Given her family situation I think that’s perfectly reasonable. Particularly when Donald Trump is cooking up plans yo turn it into docklands
    I still think "our land" is a stretch. I wouldn't expect Joy Morrissey to start spouting about "our land" when talking about the negotiations between the UK and the US and for her to mean the US.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017

    Egypt and Saudi Arabia have poured cold water on the Trump’s “Lebensraum Del Mar” so that’s that, I guess.

    Rwanda should offer to take them but demand payment upfront.......
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    Well I must say I have never seen myself in that way

    Mind you I didn't post yesterday as my wife and I decided to have lunch in Euston so took the morning Avanti service that took just 3 hours, had lunch, and came home on the 3.00pm service back to Colwyn Bay

    And we thoroughly enjoyed it, maybe my wife and I are a wee bit eccentric !!
    Where do you recommend for lunch in Euston?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    TimS said:

    The very salient point here is that pretty much Layla’s entire family live in Gaza and the West Bank, at least one close relative has been killed in the war, and she has been one of the most articulate, inclusive and grown up commentators on the situation since it began, regularly working with Jewish MPs to put across a common point of view. She’s not some river to the sea flag waver.
    Also the context. President Trump's rhetoric.

    Imagine he sits there next to Putin and muses approvingly about Ukraine being emptied of Ukrainians. The next day a British MP of Ukrainian descent reacts angrily and talks about it being "our land".

    Would people have a problem with that?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Seriously, we’ve got top cover now. We can invade France. We can probably also sell Trump all land in Scotland for golf courses, and get him to support the relocation of the French people to Egypt so the Scots and any English that want to can go and live on the new English Mediterranean.
  • IanB2 said:

    Just last night you struggled to accept that the Mail’s reporting was spin and not fact. Anyone bothered to check can review last evening’s conversation on PB.
    I have no idea what you are talking about

    I was in London yesterday and didn't post last night
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    HYUFD said:

    China, France, Russia, Australia and the UK of course have also reiterated their support for a 2 state solution today. So far only Netanyahu's Israel unsurprisingly in favour of Trump's plan
    Trump wants two states as well doesn’t he? Israel, and Trumpland on sea.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    edited February 5

    My raised-in-NY but lives-in-Texas colleague, who is ostensibly “liberal”, told me in the bar last night that he was fed up with all the trans garbage, and that Trump was “getting things done”.

    He cited Mexico’s agreement to post 10,000 troops to the border as a win.

    I demurred modestly, although I agreed that Trump was very entertaining.

    Keep fighting. I know it's not easy when you're on the front line.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,780

    At a country every 3 days we are only about 2 years from the first global Emperor.
    So this how liberty dies... Without thunderous applause...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,042
    Cookie said:

    Yes, on the face of it, this seems both surprising and good news for the west and for Ukraine.
    Yes: it is indisputably good news, as is Trump's (floated) plan to swap aid for Ukraine to future access (and profits) from Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral deposits.

    My gut on this says he thinks one of two things:

    (1) The Russians are the ones who are hardest to bring to the negotiating table. Ukraine would settle for the loss of Crimea, and probably the Dombas too. The issue is that such an outcome wouldn't be a victory for Russia. Trump is hoping he can put the pressure on Russia, such that they have to come to the table.

    (2) He no longer thinks Russia can (or will) win.

    Interestingly, apparently the Ukrainians haven't captured any North Koreans since mid January, which suggests they aren't being used in front line operations. (Or, alternatively, that they are being so successful, that they simply aren't being captured.)
  • Cookie said:

    That seems unnecessarily rude.
    It is but not unusual sadly
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,042
    @TOPPING

    What were the concessions that the US extracted out of Mexico and Canada?

    And what do you think the impact of Trump's actions has been on demand for US goods in those countries?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited February 5

    Tbf to Tice, I think he garbled his question and meant to say UNRWA not Hamas.
    I have two issues with that.

    1 - He had already said UNRWA several times, so I think the change is deliberate.

    2 - I have no intention of being fair to a half-time-British twunt like Tice :smile: . In addition to reasoned argument, the occasional brickbat is richly (very richly, in his case) deserved.
  • Where do you recommend for lunch in Euston?
    I struggle with mobility and actually enjoyed a nice lunch in the Signal Box as it is in Euston on the upper level
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    Well I must say I have never seen myself in that way

    Mind you I didn't post yesterday as my wife and I decided to have lunch in Euston so took the morning Avanti service that took just 3 hours, had lunch, and came home on the 3.00pm service back to Colwyn Bay

    And we thoroughly enjoyed it, maybe my wife and I are a wee bit eccentric !!
    Sounds great, actually.
    I’ve barely left Manhattan in months. I’m getting restless.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    rcs1000 said:

    @TOPPING

    What were the concessions that the US extracted out of Mexico and Canada?

    And what do you think the impact of Trump's actions has been on demand for US goods in those countries?

    Not just those countries. Demand for Teslas is going to fall sharply in Europe with a big spike the other direction in East Germany.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    Battlebus said:

    Apologies for second pic - but it's quite apt.


    If the Prussian army was correct, there was some truth in that. Claver but lazy people were suited for the highest command, because they knew how to delegate.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Sean_F said:

    If the Prussian army was correct, there was some truth in that. Claver but lazy people were suited for the highest command, because they knew how to delegate.
    This is what I try to tell my boss.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    edited February 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes: it is indisputably good news, as is Trump's (floated) plan to swap aid for Ukraine to future access (and profits) from Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral deposits.

    My gut on this says he thinks one of two things:

    (1) The Russians are the ones who are hardest to bring to the negotiating table. Ukraine would settle for the loss of Crimea, and probably the Dombas too. The issue is that such an outcome wouldn't be a victory for Russia. Trump is hoping he can put the pressure on Russia, such that they have to come to the table.

    (2) He no longer thinks Russia can (or will) win.

    Interestingly, apparently the Ukrainians haven't captured any North Koreans since mid January, which suggests they aren't being used in front line operations. (Or, alternatively, that they are being so successful, that they simply aren't being captured.)
    I wonder if the internal reports suggest that Russia is in a much worse state internally than they appear from the outside?

    Trump has been noticeably more negative about Russia ever since he won the election.

    On the Koreans: the news I’ve seen is that Kim has been horrified by the scale of their losses in such a short time (due to the Russians throwing them into the meatgrinder just as they do with everyone else) and has ordered them to pull out of the immediate fight. He sent some of his best troops supposedly - the Ukranians have described them as well trained & reasonably well equipped. I guess he wasn’t expecting them to be used as cannon fodder.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    Egypt and Saudi are more relevant because they’re the only states (along with Jordan) who might conceivably offer a home for 2M displaced Gazans.
    Well of course, they would wouldn't they; what on earth would anyone expect.

    With Trump unless actual accomplished deeds show otherwise, you take his announcements and policies seriously but not literally. It saves vast amounts of time and effort.

    So in place of giving him extra attention, move as fast as possible towards what he is actually trying to do, and what the options are for everyone else, and what the outcome might be.

    FWIW my assumption at the moment is that Trump and his oligarch mates would like to move things along a bit, especially the bits where little progress has been made since 1948. The chance has arisen to push a one (non Palestinian) state solution, no-one has been able to progress any decent ideas for decades, that Gaza is rubble is a fact however regrettable.

    What Trump's move forces is for other parties to find ways of making progress better than Trump's wheeze (denunciations won't do, you have to have a better and possible plan) and makes it harder to return to status quo ante.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes: it is indisputably good news, as is Trump's (floated) plan to swap aid for Ukraine to future access (and profits) from Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral deposits.

    My gut on this says he thinks one of two things:

    (1) The Russians are the ones who are hardest to bring to the negotiating table. Ukraine would settle for the loss of Crimea, and probably the Dombas too. The issue is that such an outcome wouldn't be a victory for Russia. Trump is hoping he can put the pressure on Russia, such that they have to come to the table.

    (2) He no longer thinks Russia can (or will) win.

    Interestingly, apparently the Ukrainians haven't captured any North Koreans since mid January, which suggests they aren't being used in front line operations. (Or, alternatively, that they are being so successful, that they simply aren't being captured.)
    Here is a video reporting North Koreans having been withdrawn for their units to be reconstituted after 40% losses. It is from the Reporting from Ukraine channel, which has been one of my occasional regulars for about 18 months.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gtslRrXBQs


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    Where do you recommend for lunch in Euston?
    The Burger King is compelling. Albeit quite spenny vs MickeyDs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes: it is indisputably good news, as is Trump's (floated) plan to swap aid for Ukraine to future access (and profits) from Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral deposits.

    My gut on this says he thinks one of two things:

    (1) The Russians are the ones who are hardest to bring to the negotiating table. Ukraine would settle for the loss of Crimea, and probably the Dombas too. The issue is that such an outcome wouldn't be a victory for Russia. Trump is hoping he can put the pressure on Russia, such that they have to come to the table.

    (2) He no longer thinks Russia can (or will) win.

    Interestingly, apparently the Ukrainians haven't captured any North Koreans since mid January, which suggests they aren't being used in front line operations. (Or, alternatively, that they are being so successful, that they simply aren't being captured.)
    I thought I read the other day that the North Koreans had pulled out (perhaps just from front line operations) as they were frankly horrified at the level of carnage.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195

    I struggle with mobility and actually enjoyed a nice lunch in the Signal Box as it is in Euston on the upper level
    @Big_G_NorthWales is the Ken Clarke of PB :wink: .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    rcs1000 said:

    @TOPPING

    What were the concessions that the US extracted out of Mexico and Canada?

    And what do you think the impact of Trump's actions has been on demand for US goods in those countries?

    Didn't Mexico agree to send 10,000 troops to the border (which politically I believe is important for Trump and his supporters); and as for Canada there is now going to be a US-Canada trade summit wherein presumably Trump/the US will agitate for whatever terms they deem favourable to them.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Phil said:

    They have all of The West Wing on catchup which you can get ad-free for £4 / month tho. Yes, it can be teeth-grindingly soft-left in it’s politics but it’s still a joy to watch.

    (Niche audience, but I bet some on here are part of that subset of humanity.)

    (Also, Derry Girls!)
    Never got into that. C4 used to do some first class comedy though and drama. Will give them that, but not for a while. We watch Bake Off. Cannot think of any other C4 show we watch. I have caught Ramsays Kitchen Nightmares on More 4 while working from home. I am amazed he has not had someone wallop him.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    Well I must say I have never seen myself in that way

    Mind you I didn't post yesterday as my wife and I decided to have lunch in Euston so took the morning Avanti service that took just 3 hours, had lunch, and came home on the 3.00pm service back to Colwyn Bay

    And we thoroughly enjoyed it, maybe my wife and I are a wee bit eccentric !!
    Did you pop into the Doric Arch for a frothing pint of Summer lightning. A true joy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    biggles said:

    Seriously, we’ve got top cover now. We can invade France. We can probably also sell Trump all land in Scotland for golf courses, and get him to support the relocation of the French people to Egypt so the Scots and any English that want to can go and live on the new English Mediterranean.

    Oh that one's easy, deport the French people who live in the land across the Channel to Overseas France and any one of the 13 territories that it comprises.

    Vive les Colonisers!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    biggles said:

    Seriously, we’ve got top cover now. We can invade France. We can probably also sell Trump all land in Scotland for golf courses, and get him to support the relocation of the French people to Egypt so the Scots and any English that want to can go and live on the new English Mediterranean.

    I know that Gaza looks like hell on earth, but that pales in comparison with turning an entire country into golf courses. 😳
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Egypt and Saudi are more relevant because they’re the only states (along with Jordan) who might conceivably offer a home for 2M displaced Gazans.
    True though would also need UN Security Council support and every permanent member bar US now opposed
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    GIN1138 said:

    So this how liberty dies... Without thunderous applause...
    Its alright, it all ends up with 60 years of prosperity and growth, we just have to get through the trade wars and depression in the 20s first, some world wars in the 30s and 40s til we get to the 50s where we start to feel lucky to be eating spam.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Sean_F said:

    If the Prussian army was correct, there was some truth in that. Claver but lazy people were suited for the highest command, because they knew how to delegate.
    You mean the von Hammerstein-Equord dynamic.

    https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00012327
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    Taz said:

    Did you pop into the Doric Arch for a frothing pint of Summer lightning. A true joy.
    The cancel HS2 types hang out in the Bree Louise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Despite all the hysteria, Trump is the only world leader offering the Palestinians even a halfway plausible route to a better life
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    If we're talking about Euston, no one should not spare a moment for this:


  • NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited February 5
    rcs1000 said:

    What concessions did he extract?
    https://youtu.be/mSpKUl98mSw?t=3
  • Taz said:

    Did you pop into the Doric Arch for a frothing pint of Summer lightning. A true joy.
    I did walk past it but I am not really a drinker so settled for the Signsl Box

    Though it did look a fascinating venue even from outside
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    carnforth said:

    The cancel HS2 types hang out in the Bree Louise.
    Does it do Summer Lightning ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Sean_F said:

    If the Prussian army was correct, there was some truth in that. Claver but lazy people were suited for the highest command, because they knew how to delegate.
    That's what we all strived for on our school report. A for attainment, C for effort. It beat a double A hands down.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    I did walk past it but I am not really a drinker so settled for the Signsl Box

    Though it did look a fascinating venue even from outside
    It is, I used to like a seat by the window watching the buses come and go and the people going by.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    I do not understand @Gardenwalker obsession with me to be honest
    There's only one thing worse than being talked about, Big_G.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Cookie said:

    Yes, on the face of it, this seems both surprising and good news for the west and for Ukraine.
    Someone has perhaps told him that two thirds of Ukraine's mineral reserves, which he wants to get US hands on, are in east Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited February 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes: it is indisputably good news, as is Trump's (floated) plan to swap aid for Ukraine to future access (and profits) from Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral deposits.

    My gut on this says he thinks one of two things:

    (1) The Russians are the ones who are hardest to bring to the negotiating table. Ukraine would settle for the loss of Crimea, and probably the Dombas too. The issue is that such an outcome wouldn't be a victory for Russia. Trump is hoping he can put the pressure on Russia, such that they have to come to the table.

    (2) He no longer thinks Russia can (or will) win.

    Interestingly, apparently the Ukrainians haven't captured any North Koreans since mid January, which suggests they aren't being used in front line operations. (Or, alternatively, that they are being so successful, that they simply aren't being captured.)
    They've been withdrawn from the front after taking 30% casualties*.

    (*Of the entire contingent.)
This discussion has been closed.