Why two plus two may not add up to four – politicalbetting.com
Why two plus two may not add up to four – politicalbetting.com
It's the Reform split that really needs to be thought about. These aren't Tories on holiday. The majority want to destroy the Conservative party.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Edit 127/8.
I'd understand it in league cricket where there a certain number of overs for the match (e.g. 100) and you have up to 50 batting first. There your opponents get extra if you are bowled out. But not in T20 etc
Donald Trump announced that he plans to impose massive tariffs on Taiwan-made chips:
“We do not want to give them billions of dollars like this ridiculous program that Biden has given everybody billions of dollars.”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1884102779737890922
YouGov@YouGov
·
24m
Disapproval in the government reaches its highest level since the election
Approve: 16% (-4 from 18-20 Jan)
Disapprove: 64% (+4)
Net: -48 (-8)
Indeed in neither the Conservatives nor Reform do a majority of their voters back such a merger.
If we had PR of course there would be no need to even consider it, both parties would get MPs directly equating to their voteshare and could come together post election to try and form a government if combined they had a majority. Even AV or second ballot would allow those who wanted to vote Tory or Reform first and the other second. Only FPTP makes it a consideration but even then a pact would probably be better, let Reform concentrate on seats they won or were second in 2024 and let the Tories focus on seats they won or were second in 2024
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (26-27 Jan)
Lab: 27% (+1 from 20-21 Jan)
Ref: 23% (-1)
Con: 22% (=)
Lib Dem: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
In a nominally better (within MoE) poll for Labour you found your silver lining. Well done!
His third term, perhaps ?
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/german-economy-seen-contracting-in-2025-industrial-lobby-group-bdi-says--reuters-3833766
As Elon has made it next to impossible to embed tweets in headers I am having to use BlueSky.
(Tin hat in place)
It's a case of Donald from Foxtons.
The only people I know who have put their money where their mouth is in that respect is an Anglo-German couple of my acquaintance from Munich who have bought a bolt-hole in...Herne Bay. That shows both commitment and how bad things are perceived to be in Germany.
The Green core vote may be even smaller. 3% perhaps? I would take the 8% LD excess over core vote and distribute about 4% to tactical voting, 4% to NOTA and centrist Tories. And take the 6% excess for the Greens and allocate it 4% to disgruntled BJO lefties, and 2% to vaguely NOTA voters who are in mid-term mode.
It's all bit worthy and right on. That's something coming from an old green voting, vegan hippy like me!
LLG 50
RefCon 45
That’s the best result for LLG in recent polls. I suspect the actual situation is closer to 50:50
I can actually understand languages and especially translation - as Nick Palmer pointed out AI has already decimated that sector
Yes I know that is going to trigger SeanT sorry
It’s been personal
I have three jade bracelets from the Shan State. A 1930s Mandalay box. And a jar of sea salt from the Irrawaddy Delta
Elon has humped the pooch here.
Closing the nursing course will also be a disaster given the shortage we have of home produced nurses
Yeah, I lingered. Great place to work as you guessed
Quite pleased to be going tho. The crows freak me out
400 in a staff of thousands is less than anticipated.
The courses are not the subjects that are chock a block with Johnny Foreigner students either. Surprisingly. Maybe that comes later.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liechtenstein_Institute_on_Self-Determination
It tickles me.
I'm keeping an eye on it, as if enough interesting stuff migrates, it might save a lot of time.
In weather news, I've now recorded more rain this January in West Cork (212mm) than seen in the record January month of 2014 in the England & Wales Precipitation series (184.6mm). But it's not seemed that wet here - I've mostly been walking around in shorts and sandals. I guess that means I've acclimatised.
If polling companies getting increasing numbers saying D/K won’t vote, and don’t share this information, does it actually mislead us geeky Psephologists and political bettors?
Say the answer back to the poll was Labour 13%, Con 10% Ref 9% don’t know wont say 57%, how would reading something like that actually change what you are thinking about it? The size of the number who recall voting Labour last July, or who answered as Labour in last general election polling, who don’t give another party name but answer don’t know, could be a crucial difference, how the table in your post would look very different, second guessing how lost to Labour their 2024 voters are.
A lot of people have placeholders.
I asked if it was NI related and @Eek provided the answer
Potentially the first supersonic private aircraft since Concorde retired two decades ago.
https://x.com/boomaero/status/1884261519455838235
EDIT just to say that nurses have had to study for a degree LEVEL qualification since 2013. Many courses are more akin to apprentices though. Sorry for the confusion.
Is there a breakdown of the numbers?
TBH it sounds like a pinprick - although I'm sure various pols will be claiming to have parented kittens.
A few years before I started University in the 1980s, Mrs Thatcher cut the University's central funding by 30% (also Aston, Salford as industrial enthusiast Maggie cut the industrial universities hardest), and they lost some core courses.
https://www.bradford.ac.uk/library/special-collections/our-collections/university-of-bradford-archive/
There was an interesting thread on the lessons they'd learned from the prototype.
The Government should investigate how to resolve the university crisis as the sector is/was a massive money spinner and employer.
Of the five people trapped that weekend, I swap Christmas cards with one, three of us dine monthly, and two are married, so the Cardiff degree emporium holds a special place in my heart and it is a shame to see it diminished.
Mind you, they got hammered by QUB on University Challenge yesterday.