The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!
Fpt
“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn
The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”
This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.
Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.
You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?
You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?
Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless
There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.
Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.
It's not just getting private healthcare, it's getting NHS healthcare - sometimes priority treatment. So Eabhall's 'Labour will be judged on the NHS' ties directly into immigration - as does housing.
Some voters thing immigration is to blame for NHS problems. They are wrong.
Unless you think that the NHS' problems aren't remotely due to being overburdened/underfunded, you can't possibly support the above notion.
I refer you to the discussion above. Immigrants mostly increase tax revenues, and thus funding, more than they increase burden.
Are you comparing the total NHS costs versus the total tax paid? If so, that's not entirely useful as other costs (education for kids, benefits, etc) are also incurred.
“Studies on migrants in Denmark's economy generally indicate that while immigration from Western countries tends to have a positive impact, migrants from non-Western countries often place a net strain on public finances, with concerns regarding their integration into the labor market and higher reliance on welfare benefits; this disparity is often attributed to differences in education levels and cultural factors, leading to a significant income gap between immigrant groups and native Danes.”
“The main conclusion is that immigrants from richer countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from poorer countries have a large negative one”
Where are our migrants from? Japan? Switzerland? No
NEW: These topics did *NOT* come up in Donald Trump’s weekend call with Keir Starmer:
Peter Mandelson Defence spending hitting 2.5% Trump’s plans for Greenland Chagos Islands US imposing tariffs on UK Ukraine (which they’ve discussed in depth previously)
But they had a “long and detailed” discussion on range of areas including trade, investment, deregulation.
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
NEW: These topics did *NOT* come up in Donald Trump’s weekend call with Keir Starmer:
Peter Mandelson Defence spending hitting 2.5% Trump’s plans for Greenland Chagos Islands US imposing tariffs on UK Ukraine (which they’ve discussed in depth previously)
But they had a “long and detailed” discussion on range of areas including trade, investment, deregulation.
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depending on the level of tariffs, yes.
The U.S. has an ability to do global economic damage denied to us. So in absolute terms could create a far greater mess, from whose backwash they would not be immune.
Treasury borrowing costs have fallen to their lowest level since the turn of the year as the sharp sell-off in tech stocks pushed investors towards safe haven assets.
The yield on 10-year UK gilts - a benchmark of government borrowing costs - has fall seven basis points today to 4.56pc
Telegraph blog
MaxPB please explain.
Etc.
Government incompetence is one of a number of factors that affects government borrowing costs.
So vote for a competent government then..... Any suggestions?
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
That policy is to me a valid reason to vote for Farage
Treasury borrowing costs have fallen to their lowest level since the turn of the year as the sharp sell-off in tech stocks pushed investors towards safe haven assets.
The yield on 10-year UK gilts - a benchmark of government borrowing costs - has fall seven basis points today to 4.56pc
Telegraph blog
MaxPB please explain.
Etc.
Government incompetence is one of a number of factors that affects government borrowing costs.
So vote for a competent government then..... Any suggestions?
Vote Malmesbury for perfection in voting reform. One man, one vote.
Apologies to @williamglenn if I have offended him/her by drawing attention to his/her nocturnal activities (assuming he/she is in this time zone) but his/her style is quite distinct. It's almost as if there is a bot somewhere in the background selecting pro-Trump messages and then posting them automatically. But perhaps I need to lie down and stop seeing bots everywhere.
However it begs the question about those championing right / left philosophies without asking the question of whether those in power are actually competent or is the championing of a view sufficient excuse to excuse the balls up (see previous governments in the UK)
Where does the question of a basic competency lie when looking at the offerings from Farage or Kemi when they will be in the spotlight like Labour now? Trump 2.0 is going to be interesting looking at his team and it may be instructive, if anyone is seeking to answer the competency question.
@williamglenn is an incredibly readable poster even if the majority of his work is completely bonkers.
Did you know he used to be a Eurofederalist and posted a pro-EU agenda on this board for a number of years?
And then he accepted the democratic verdict of the British people. It's notable that this is notable...
Not for a few years he didn't. He was very much in favour of a best of three referendum and for a good while. His writing on this subject was heroic.
Wasn't it more one the lines of "Best of three.... hmmm after two, I think it should be best of five. No, best of seven......" ?
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depends who they are introduced on. If the UK just introduced tariffs on say Iceland and Mauritius' imports, to take 2 'random' examples that would be rather less damaging to the UK economy than Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese and EU imports could be once they also impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depends who they are introduced on. If the UK just introduced tariffs on say Iceland and Mauritius' imports, to take 2 'random' examples that would be rather less damaging to the UK economy than Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese and EU imports could be once they also impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports
True - while not a tariff, think of Gordon Brown using some rather interesting legislation vs Icelandic banks. Since Iceland is a really small country, little blowback.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depending on the level of tariffs, yes.
The U.S. has an ability to do global economic damage denied to us. So in absolute terms could create a far greater mess, from whose backwash they would not be immune.
The world was already trending towards trade blocs, with trade between China and US/Europe declining at the same time as trade between US and Europe increases and trade between China and other countries (eg Russia!) also increases. Russia would be a natural partner for Europe but Putin has cut off that option. If the US also becomes hostile...
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depends who they are introduced on. If the UK just introduced tariffs on say Iceland and Mauritius' imports, to take 2 'random' examples that would be rather less damaging to the UK economy than Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese and EU imports could be once they also impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports
Are you just trying to wind me up? Let me rephrase it. If the UK introduced the same kinds of sweeping tariffs on Chinese and EU imports (to use your examples) that Trump is threatening... Satisfied?
Absolute carnage. Big wake up call for Google, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft and OpenAI. If the gains in efficiency are legit and not phantom then Nvidia is absolutely fucked, we're looking at a 90% reduction in demand for their highest margin products. Good news for gamers though who might finally get reasonably priced GPUs.
It's notable that Chinese development of high-efficiency AI seems to have been driven, at least in part, by restrictions on the export of high-performance chips from the US. The law of unintended consequences strikes again!
It was completely predictable.
The first exaFLOPS supercomputer wasn't the US Frontier system. China beat the US with not one but two systems. Sunway OceanLight (Sunway SW26010Pro CPUs) and Tianhe-3 (Phytium Arm CPUs and Matrix 2000+ acclerators) got there before the Americans, but they didn't submit official benchmarks because the Americans would have flipped out, and likely whacked more sanctions on China. We can be confident that the Chinese did it though because Jack Dongarra says so.
American regulations aren't stopping China from getting technology, but they are forcing them to develop it themselves. Funnily enough the Chinese are proving quite good at designing their own chips for HPC, mobile, and AI/ML (Huawei Ascend for one).
In answer to the question posed in the header, one consistency in Nigel Farage's long career is he's never right. It is quite extraordinary. Sometimes he's been quarter right about something, but it just means he's three quarters wrong ...
Translation: In answer to the question posed in the header, one consistency in Nigel Farage's long career is he's never agreed with me. It is quite extraordinary. Sometimes he's been a quarter in agreement with me about something, but it just means he's three quarters in disagreement with me ...
We do live in a post-facts world. Perhaps there's no truth any more, just opinions. The person who pushes their opinion the hardest is the most "right" ?
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The prospect of $100 million is a strong motivator, and he has slightly more chance of getting that out of Musk than Trump.
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depending on the level of tariffs, yes.
The U.S. has an ability to do global economic damage denied to us. So in absolute terms could create a far greater mess, from whose backwash they would not be immune.
The world was already trending towards trade blocs, with trade between China and US/Europe declining at the same time as trade between US and Europe increases and trade between China and other countries (eg Russia!) also increases. Russia would be a natural partner for Europe but Putin has cut off that option. If the US also becomes hostile...
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depends who they are introduced on. If the UK just introduced tariffs on say Iceland and Mauritius' imports, to take 2 'random' examples that would be rather less damaging to the UK economy than Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese and EU imports could be once they also impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports
Are you just trying to wind me up? Let me rephrase it. If the UK introduced the same kinds of sweeping tariffs on Chinese and EU imports (to use your examples) that Trump is threatening... Satisfied?
Yes but no UK leader, even Farage, is proposing extra tariffs on Chinese as well as EU imports.
Of course even if they did it would not necessarily be that damaging if UK manufacturing and energy producers and farmers could expand production to meet UK consumer demand as they shifted away from more expensive imported Chinese and EU imported goods, energy and produce. Albeit that is an unlikely scenario and UK exporters to China and the EU would still be hit by their retaliatory tariffs
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The prospect of $100 million is a strong motivator, and he has slightly more chance of getting that out of Musk than Trump.
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
Well a few Tory voters might go LD if they got a Reform and Tory government but where else could Reform voters go except Tommy Robinson and UKIP?
The next GE on current polls will likely be a choice between a Tory and Reform government or a Labour and LD government
Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.
Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?
One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial.
To be honest, it depends how aggressive it is. I had a former housemate who was diagnosed with it in his mid-fifties. It was viciously aggressive and he was gone within two years. Hopefully your relative has a more sedate form.
Jesus. What a terrifying story - and sympathies to the relative of @MattW - let’s hope it’s much kinder there
Carpe fucking Diem, eh
What was even worse was he got fired from his solicitors practice because they took his first signs slurred words as drunkeness. Consequently didn't have their private healthcare.
It was grim in the extreme. Teenage son had to see his father disintegrate on fast forward. His wife tried to keep it together, but his home was the most depressing place.
That's horrible. I hope he put in a claim for that.
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
If the Tories adopted Hezza's narrative, including reviewing our relationship with the EU, they would win a landslide.
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
They’re “meant” to be leading. This is polling these as manifesto policies, and thus testing for voter approval
The only surprising thing is the large numbers (23%-38%!!) who are nevertheless against things like 'free speech' 'merit' and reducing inflation.
Brits are bonkers.
I still haven’t recovered from the polling in 2020/21 where about a fifth of voters wanted nightclubs to remain closed even after the pandemic was over.
It was a weird age thing.
Noisy, loud, drunken people nearby, and they're having lots of fun - and maybe some fornication - that they can no longer have.
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
They’re “meant” to be leading. This is polling these as manifesto policies, and thus testing for voter approval
The only surprising thing is the large numbers (23%-38%!!) who are nevertheless against things like 'free speech' 'merit' and reducing inflation.
Brits are bonkers.
I still haven’t recovered from the polling in 2020/21 where about a fifth of voters wanted nightclubs to remain closed even after the pandemic was over.
It was a weird age thing.
Noisy, loud, drunken people nearby, and they're having lots of fun - and maybe some fornication - that they can no longer have.
I thought TSE was writing about nightclubs and not Downing Street.
Absolute carnage. Big wake up call for Google, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft and OpenAI. If the gains in efficiency are legit and not phantom then Nvidia is absolutely fucked, we're looking at a 90% reduction in demand for their highest margin products. Good news for gamers though who might finally get reasonably priced GPUs.
It's notable that Chinese development of high-efficiency AI seems to have been driven, at least in part, by restrictions on the export of high-performance chips from the US. The law of unintended consequences strikes again!
It was completely predictable.
The first exaFLOPS supercomputer wasn't the US Frontier system. China beat the US with not one but two systems. Sunway OceanLight (Sunway SW26010Pro CPUs) and Tianhe-3 (Phytium Arm CPUs and Matrix 2000+ acclerators) got there before the Americans, but they didn't submit official benchmarks because the Americans would have flipped out, and likely whacked more sanctions on China. We can be confident that the Chinese did it though because Jack Dongarra says so.
American regulations aren't stopping China from getting technology, but they are forcing them to develop it themselves. Funnily enough the Chinese are proving quite good at designing their own chips for HPC, mobile, and AI/ML (Huawei Ascend for one).
There are 2 issues here
1) Deepseek has shown that you don’t need to throw hardware at the problem - Chinese human brain power is simplifying the work required 2) the US thought that by restricting hardware they would create a moat for themselves relative to China. china’s local technology is leaping rapidly ahead because it needs to so the lead the US has is far smaller than Biden and Trump were expecting
Put the two issues together and suddenly the AI world is very different for what people thought it was last week
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
Well a few Tory voters might go LD if they got a Reform and Tory government but where else could Reform voters go except Tommy Robinson and UKIP?
The next GE on current polls will likely be a choice between a Tory and Reform government or a Labour and LD government
The next election might well depend on non compete agreements, tactical voting will be hard to organise with a new entrant.
Will be interesting to see what Farage and Co manage to achieve with the candidates list. Their 2024 list was full of dirty wronguns and chancers. No excuse this time around.
Treasury borrowing costs have fallen to their lowest level since the turn of the year as the sharp sell-off in tech stocks pushed investors towards safe haven assets.
The yield on 10-year UK gilts - a benchmark of government borrowing costs - has fall seven basis points today to 4.56pc
Telegraph blog
MaxPB please explain.
Etc.
Government incompetence is one of a number of factors that affects government borrowing costs.
So vote for a competent government then..... Any suggestions?
Vote Malmesbury for perfection in voting reform. One man, one vote.
Presumably, like Lord Vetinari, you are the man and you have the vote?
The opportunity for betting on outcomes seems somewhat limited in that scenario.
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
That's why the "ah, but Reform are picking up ex-Labour votes in Red Wall seats that the Conservatives can never reach" hopium is so important. It's the only map that allows Reform to grow without it being at the expense of the Conservatives. It could happen (though the evidence for it so far is patchy at best), but it seems optimistic. The current LibLab map is miraculous in its elegance, but it took several false starts and a lot of external pressure to get there.
And in the meantime, the old adage that the other side are merely the opposition and the ones on your side are the real enemy continues to apply.
Trump would never be popular in the UK.....his policies, on the other hand....
Fascinating new polling from @OpiniumResearch & Nepean testing Trump policy positions in UK - even 'end Net Zero' and 'only two genders' get public support (and much higher support for deportations, merit-based society, restoring free speech and, er, tariffs...)
Those are obviously very loaded questions, but then perhaps that's the point, to test out Trumpian rhetoric. How do parties containing rational individuals respond to that rhetoric?
"Do you support raising tariffs so that the things you buy in the shops are more expensive?" would get very different numbers.
Indeed, we will see how tariffs affect Trump's popularity in a year or so. Fine if they increase US made production and US jobs, less fine if their main impact is to increase prices on US consumers.
Anyway, Trump's war on woke, EDI, net zero, trans, immigrants and foreign imports will be interesting to watch from this side of the pond as an experiment.
If it works we could well end up with PM Farage here too and the populist right will surge in Europe and across the West, if it flops in whole or in part that will hit Reform too and the other populist right parties
Tariffs are potentially a lot more damaging for the UK than for the USA, I would have thought.
UK Exports %GDP 32.17 Imports %GDP 33.14 (2023) US Exports %GDP 11.63 Imports %GDP 15.41 (2022)
Of the bigger economies Germany and South Korea have the highest trade-to-GDP ratio.
Not really, given we are not a major target for US tariffs unlike China, the EU and Mexico and Canada which the US has trade deficits with unlike here.
Germany however will face heavy tariffs precisely because of its high trade to GDP ratio and high surplus with the US.
There is not even a threat of new tariffs on the UK from any other nation than Trump's US either. By next year though the US will likely face retaliatory tariffs on its exporters from China, the EU, Mexico and Canada and any US consumers who buy goods from those nations will be facing higher prices, Trump's gamble is extra jobs will be created in US companies to compensate as they buy more US made good
OK let me rephrase it.
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
Depending on the level of tariffs, yes.
The U.S. has an ability to do global economic damage denied to us. So in absolute terms could create a far greater mess, from whose backwash they would not be immune.
The world was already trending towards trade blocs, with trade between China and US/Europe declining at the same time as trade between US and Europe increases and trade between China and other countries (eg Russia!) also increases. Russia would be a natural partner for Europe but Putin has cut off that option. If the US also becomes hostile...
I'm not arguing with your basic point.
Mine is that as UK tariffs would be largely self harming, they'd also likely be fairly quickly corrected without systemic damage.
That simply isn't true of US tariffs. The fact that the U.S. would suffer less damage than everyone else, from tariffs they imposed, doesn't mean that their self imposed damage would over time likely be greater than anything we might realistically do to ourselves. (Unless we were completely insane.)
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
Well a few Tory voters might go LD if they got a Reform and Tory government but where else could Reform voters go except Tommy Robinson and UKIP?
The next GE on current polls will likely be a choice between a Tory and Reform government or a Labour and LD government
The next election might well depend on non compete agreements, tactical voting will be hard to organise with a new entrant.
Will be interesting to see what Farage and Co manage to achieve with the candidates list. Their 2024 list was full of dirty wronguns and chancers. No excuse this time around.
I think that some campaigning organisations will have lists and bios available to feed stories in the press for that time.
In some respects, those local elections that happen in May 2025 may be a practice run.
Hoping very much that China's "AI advances" fall flat for whatever reasons.
It rather reminds me of another Practhett conceit. He pointed out that if you had a big red button and a painted sign saying DO NOT PRESS, END OF THE WORLD, the paint would not have time to dry. Mind you, I feel that about a lot of AI, not just the Chinese version.
Hoping very much that China's "AI advances" fall flat for whatever reasons.
This isn’t about all AI. This is about one LLM. There is way more to AI than LLMs. This Chinese LLM is very interesting and a significant new tool, but it’s a refinement of LLM technology, not a complete revolution. If that makes you feel any better.
1) Deepseek has shown that you don’t need to throw hardware at the problem - Chinese human brain power is simplifying the work required
Just because "work smarter" is good it doesn't mean that "work harder" is without merit. What will be interesting is to see how others learn from DeepSeek and apply that knowledge to their own models, and what they then get out of their investment in hardware.
I suspect that there will be a correction to market values and investment, but I wouldn't expect it to be the bubble popping as such. If anything it might make realising the ambitious goals for machine learning a little easier.
2) the US thought that by restricting hardware they would create a moat for themselves relative to China. china’s local technology is leaping rapidly ahead because it needs to so the lead the US has is far smaller than Biden and Trump were expecting
Put the two issues together and suddenly the AI world is very different for what people thought it was last week
I think the AI moat has always been more of a meme than reality. Certainly if you intend to publish papers, share sourcecode, and even let people use the thing then people are going to figure out how it works and how to copy it.
Similarly I don't really believe you can create guardrails for AI, you can apply them to your own usage, but others can work around them too easily, or delete them altogether if they run the system for themselves.
Absolute carnage. Big wake up call for Google, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft and OpenAI. If the gains in efficiency are legit and not phantom then Nvidia is absolutely fucked, we're looking at a 90% reduction in demand for their highest margin products. Good news for gamers though who might finally get reasonably priced GPUs.
It's notable that Chinese development of high-efficiency AI seems to have been driven, at least in part, by restrictions on the export of high-performance chips from the US. The law of unintended consequences strikes again!
It was completely predictable.
The first exaFLOPS supercomputer wasn't the US Frontier system. China beat the US with not one but two systems. Sunway OceanLight (Sunway SW26010Pro CPUs) and Tianhe-3 (Phytium Arm CPUs and Matrix 2000+ acclerators) got there before the Americans, but they didn't submit official benchmarks because the Americans would have flipped out, and likely whacked more sanctions on China. We can be confident that the Chinese did it though because Jack Dongarra says so.
American regulations aren't stopping China from getting technology, but they are forcing them to develop it themselves. Funnily enough the Chinese are proving quite good at designing their own chips for HPC, mobile, and AI/ML (Huawei Ascend for one).
There are 2 issues here
1) Deepseek has shown that you don’t need to throw hardware at the problem - Chinese human brain power is simplifying the work required 2) the US thought that by restricting hardware they would create a moat for themselves relative to China. china’s local technology is leaping rapidly ahead because it needs to so the lead the US has is far smaller than Biden and Trump were expecting
Put the two issues together and suddenly the AI world is very different for what people thought it was last week
Is it another of those things that was pretty obvious once you step back a bit? A combination of a) there not really being a huge trade secret or network of users that you can protect and b) most users wanting the cheapest thing that's good enough, rather than the state of the art?
(I'm reminded of the sort of British boffindom that Francis Spufford eulogised. Or the way Clive Sinclair started out- buying out-of-tolerance electronic components cheaply and working out what could be done with them anyway.)
There's been some chatter this morning about the Wales 20mph limit.
Here's an Active Travel Cafe presentation published yesterday. Quite long - there's an hour of it, covering the 20mph scheme, and the 9 months of road safety data we now have since it was introduced.
One thing I had missed was that reduced collision and casualty figures and reduced insurance premiums have come without any traffic calming having been done - so there is potential for even greater benefits.
I think that some here will be interested in the final 10 minute segment at the end by an experienced road designer on what can be done differently where limits are 20mph - around reducing clutter, and also altering places to create a pleasanter environment where the "felt reasonable" speed is lower. There is extra time for drivers to see things, so fewer signs are required, and many do not require lighting, so costs can be reduced.
Absolute carnage. Big wake up call for Google, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft and OpenAI. If the gains in efficiency are legit and not phantom then Nvidia is absolutely fucked, we're looking at a 90% reduction in demand for their highest margin products. Good news for gamers though who might finally get reasonably priced GPUs.
It's notable that Chinese development of high-efficiency AI seems to have been driven, at least in part, by restrictions on the export of high-performance chips from the US. The law of unintended consequences strikes again!
It was completely predictable.
The first exaFLOPS supercomputer wasn't the US Frontier system. China beat the US with not one but two systems. Sunway OceanLight (Sunway SW26010Pro CPUs) and Tianhe-3 (Phytium Arm CPUs and Matrix 2000+ acclerators) got there before the Americans, but they didn't submit official benchmarks because the Americans would have flipped out, and likely whacked more sanctions on China. We can be confident that the Chinese did it though because Jack Dongarra says so.
American regulations aren't stopping China from getting technology, but they are forcing them to develop it themselves. Funnily enough the Chinese are proving quite good at designing their own chips for HPC, mobile, and AI/ML (Huawei Ascend for one).
There are 2 issues here
1) Deepseek has shown that you don’t need to throw hardware at the problem - Chinese human brain power is simplifying the work required 2) the US thought that by restricting hardware they would create a moat for themselves relative to China. china’s local technology is leaping rapidly ahead because it needs to so the lead the US has is far smaller than Biden and Trump were expecting
Put the two issues together and suddenly the AI world is very different for what people thought it was last week
Is it another of those things that was pretty obvious once you step back a bit? A combination of a) there not really being a huge trade secret or network of users that you can protect and b) most users wanting the cheapest thing that's good enough, rather than the state of the art?
(I'm reminded of the sort of British boffindom that Francis Spufford eulogised. Or the way Clive Sinclair started out- buying out-of-tolerance electronic components cheaply and working out what could be done with them anyway.)
No-one (well, almost) drives around in a Ford Model T. No-one flies in a Wright Flyer. The LLMs we're using in a few decades will be different to today’s.
AI becoming cheaper to run is a good thing for pretty much everyone other than NVIDIA.
It means we can see the productivity gains in the economy with a much lower barrier to implementation.
Biggest losers are probably Nvidia, ASML and TSMC. Who will pay $30k per wafer or $180m per lithography machine when they can't sell 500mm² chips for $10k per piece.
Off topic, sort of, but I reckon Starmer's had a good couple of weeks. Obviously he has no time for Trump or his ideas, but he's played his hand smartly and recognised that there's no point in alienating POTUS, and that a bit of obsequiousness is fairly harmless. It really doesn't matter what he (or Lammy) said when in opposition - the rules of the game change as soon as you're in government. And most Labour supporters recognise that.
I'd almost go as far to say that SKS has looked rather prime ministerial in his reaction to Trump.
Biden's last year in office badly tarnished his legacy.
So, Biden's staff didn't double check the ACLU's list of "nonviolent drug offenders" and gave clemency to a drug lord in Connecticut who murdered an 8 year old boy and his mother to stop them from testifying.
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
If the Tories adopted Hezza's narrative, including reviewing our relationship with the EU, they would win a landslide.
There's been some chatter this morning about the Wales 20mph limit.
Here's an Active Travel Cafe presentation published yesterday. Quite long - there's an hour of it, covering the 20mph scheme, and the 9 months of road safety data we now have since it was introduced.
One thing I had missed was that reduced collision and casualty figures and reduced insurance premiums have come without any traffic calming having been done - so there is potential for even greater benefits.
I think that some here will be interested in the final 10 minute segment at the end by an experienced road designer on what can be done differently where limits are 20mph - around reducing clutter, and also altering places to create a pleasanter environment where the "felt reasonable" speed is lower. There is extra time for drivers to see things, so fewer signs are required, and many do not require lighting, so costs can be reduced.
Biden's last year in office badly tarnished his legacy.
So, Biden's staff didn't double check the ACLU's list of "nonviolent drug offenders" and gave clemency to a drug lord in Connecticut who murdered an 8 year old boy and his mother to stop them from testifying.
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
If the Tories adopted Hezza's narrative, including reviewing our relationship with the EU, they would win a landslide.
Would they? How do you know?
They would win a landslide among people @Mexicanpete knows.
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
Partly true - but it is notable that (historically) the wing that is most fragmented is the wing that loses the most. The Tories had a good 20th Century thanks to their cohesion. You could argue that the New Labour and Cameron Tories have had a good 21st Century thanks to their cohesion - it was easy for everyone to transfer wholesale from one to the other when the time came.
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
That's why the "ah, but Reform are picking up ex-Labour votes in Red Wall seats that the Conservatives can never reach" hopium is so important. It's the only map that allows Reform to grow without it being at the expense of the Conservatives. It could happen (though the evidence for it so far is patchy at best), but it seems optimistic. The current LibLab map is miraculous in its elegance, but it took several false starts and a lot of external pressure to get there.
And in the meantime, the old adage that the other side are merely the opposition and the ones on your side are the real enemy continues to apply.
I've seen polling that says the biggest reason Labour have lost voters since the GE is WFA. Immigration not in the top 3.
Biden's last year in office badly tarnished his legacy.
So, Biden's staff didn't double check the ACLU's list of "nonviolent drug offenders" and gave clemency to a drug lord in Connecticut who murdered an 8 year old boy and his mother to stop them from testifying.
Thank heavens things have changed in the US and the new President hasn’t just pardoned “more than 170 [people] who were charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon or seriously injuring an officer.”
There's been some chatter this morning about the Wales 20mph limit.
Here's an Active Travel Cafe presentation published yesterday. Quite long - there's an hour of it, covering the 20mph scheme, and the 9 months of road safety data we now have since it was introduced.
One thing I had missed was that reduced collision and casualty figures and reduced insurance premiums have come without any traffic calming having been done - so there is potential for even greater benefits.
I think that some here will be interested in the final 10 minute segment at the end by an experienced road designer on what can be done differently where limits are 20mph - around reducing clutter, and also altering places to create a pleasanter environment where the "felt reasonable" speed is lower. There is extra time for drivers to see things, so fewer signs are required, and many do not require lighting, so costs can be reduced.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The prospect of $100 million is a strong motivator, and he has slightly more chance of getting that out of Musk than Trump.
Imagine the scale of the facts you could uncover on overseas fact-finding trips, with that kind of money.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The last Musk/Farage news I heard was Farage calling for Musk to take down terrorist material that Axel Rudakubana viewed. That doesn't strike me as fawning.
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats. Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
Well a few Tory voters might go LD if they got a Reform and Tory government but where else could Reform voters go except Tommy Robinson and UKIP?
The next GE on current polls will likely be a choice between a Tory and Reform government or a Labour and LD government
“The next GE on current polls will likely be a choice between a Tory and Reform government or a Labour and LD government.”
It would make a strong header and discussion, to what extent Reform and the Conservative Party are coalitionable with each other - and what’s the inherent vice for both parties going down that route.
Firstly, no, we are not talking about what current polls are predicting about May 3rd 2029, but if the GE vote efficiency against the Brexit parties will change very much, that vote efficiency against the Brexit parties so obviously makes a mockery of vote shares and seat calculators - unarguable from the last election stats - put the shares from last election in the calcs and see what seats they give you. You need to factor this in when thinking what current polls are pointing to.
You are spot on in your first couple of points. Cuddle up with Reform, how many voters (members and donors) do the Conservatives shit out the back bolstering LibDems, in votes and members, perhaps even Labour in donors and money? You said just a few.
We would like to think, whilst Reform have zero workable policies just pie in the sky soundbites, the Conservative fight back against Reform is through credible policies, something Reforms appeal has a FPTP glass ceiling as long as they can’t do serious policy and look and sound like they have workable plans. That advantage goes out the window Tories cuddling up with Reform.
And by asking where would right wing voters go in disgust if Reform and Conservatives cuddle up, further right, Robinson? Yes. That’s exactly what I think would happen - Reform would shit voters out who hate the Tories, have never voted Tory in their lives, and rate their record in government as disastrous - in other words Conservative Party to how many Reform voters are not part of the needed change, but part of the problem? Parties further right than Reform would start to do very well at expense of Reform, if the Con + Ref cuddle and coalition up.
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
I don’t find him particularly sharp, though I haven't seen this appearance - usually it's standard angry remoaner bollocks. Fact light, sneering invective heavy, crappy metaphor-laden.
There's been some chatter this morning about the Wales 20mph limit.
Here's an Active Travel Cafe presentation published yesterday. Quite long - there's an hour of it, covering the 20mph scheme, and the 9 months of road safety data we now have since it was introduced.
One thing I had missed was that reduced collision and casualty figures and reduced insurance premiums have come without any traffic calming having been done - so there is potential for even greater benefits.
I think that some here will be interested in the final 10 minute segment at the end by an experienced road designer on what can be done differently where limits are 20mph - around reducing clutter, and also altering places to create a pleasanter environment where the "felt reasonable" speed is lower. There is extra time for drivers to see things, so fewer signs are required, and many do not require lighting, so costs can be reduced.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The last Musk/Farage news I heard was Farage calling for Musk to take down terrorist material that Axel Rudakubana viewed. That doesn't strike me as fawning.
Hardly sounds like Nigel launched a crusade to have it removed. It's more that he blurted his plea out in panic as a response to an LBC gotcha attempt.
Asked on LBC whether X should take down the video, Farage said: “All terrorist material, of course, should be taken down.”
He added: “If you tell me it’s still there, it should come down. Of course it should.”
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
I don’t find him particularly sharp, though I haven't seen this appearance - usually it's standard angry remoaner bollocks. Fact light, sneering invective heavy, crappy metaphor-laden.
On Topic. Part 3😊 Farage only route to power - and its long term - is kill the Tory Party. Under FPTP two big parties with similar views can not survive alongside each other in a ‘winner takes all’ system, it will always end with desire and need for one party crushed or a merger. Momentum is currently with Ref merely because it’s hard for Con to explain they are party of low controlled immigration, secure borders, economic competence, whilst in opposition, and so soon after being thrown out of power for being rubbish at all three of those. However, in this battle, the Tory Party hold all the aces over Reform, as they hold the media endorsement, donors and MPs. Whilst ref have this “Mo” right now, donors, media and a number of Tory MPs will need to shift support in a dramatic, and clearly not happening way, otherwise Farage and reform are on a road to absolute nowhere. 😇
Labour, the Lib Dems, to a large extent the Nationalist Parties, and to some extent the Green Party have all been sharing 'similar views' and surviving quite nicely thank you. So it's idiotic to assume that all right of centre parties must coalesce or die.
Partly true - but it is notable that (historically) the wing that is most fragmented is the wing that loses the most. The Tories had a good 20th Century thanks to their cohesion. You could argue that the New Labour and Cameron Tories have had a good 21st Century thanks to their cohesion - it was easy for everyone to transfer wholesale from one to the other when the time came.
All that's gone right now.
The secret to maintaining multiple parties on one wing under FPTP seems to be geographical differentiation. Blocs are punished with efficiency losses when more than one party competes for the same votes, but that's mitigated when each party has its own home turf. The Lib Dems and Labour seem now to have arrived at something close to an efficient spread.
The SNP and Labour are less efficient as they are often competing with each other, but in that situation the unionist parties are also competing with each other so the Tories don't directly benefit.
The Greens are definitely dilutive - they directly eat into Labour support in the same places.
Reform doesn't have a home region but it does have a distinct "type" of constituency where it's popular, and that's often vs Labour rather than the Conservatives. I could foresee a fairly efficient set up where the Tories go after wealthy right wing votes and Reform go after nationalist working class constituencies.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The last Musk/Farage news I heard was Farage calling for Musk to take down terrorist material that Axel Rudakubana viewed. That doesn't strike me as fawning.
Hardly sounds like Nigel launched a crusade to have it removed. It's more that he blurted his plea out in panic as a response to an LBC gotcha attempt.
Asked on LBC whether X should take down the video, Farage said: “All terrorist material, of course, should be taken down.”
He added: “If you tell me it’s still there, it should come down. Of course it should.”
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
If the Tories adopted Hezza's narrative, including reviewing our relationship with the EU, they would win a landslide.
I've been watching 91-year-old Lord Heseltine on Politics Live. You may not agree with his views but he's still sharp.
Even though I don't agree with a lot of what he says, I just automatically find him a lot more authoritative and charismatic than pretty much all current politicians.
If the Tories adopted Hezza's narrative, including reviewing our relationship with the EU, they would win a landslide.
Would they? How do you know?
They would win a landslide among people @Mexicanpete knows.
Instinct. It is the only way they would get my vote and I am sure the centrist dad vote is more attainable than the Trump-lite vote.
That’s explosive news. The BBc coverage has always been dynamite especially those hackneyed “poetic” and wistful intros by deep voiced solemn Welsh and Scottish chaps.
Anyhoo if I was Kemi Badenoch I would be flooding the airwaves, social media, and GB News about Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum because Don told him.
And I see Nigel is also fawning over his tormentor, Elon, because 'he kind of makes us look cool'. Are Nigel's political instincts not as sharp as they used to be or has Donald's resurrection shattered his world?
The last Musk/Farage news I heard was Farage calling for Musk to take down terrorist material that Axel Rudakubana viewed. That doesn't strike me as fawning.
Hardly sounds like Nigel launched a crusade to have it removed. It's more that he blurted his plea out in panic as a response to an LBC gotcha attempt.
Asked on LBC whether X should take down the video, Farage said: “All terrorist material, of course, should be taken down.”
He added: “If you tell me it’s still there, it should come down. Of course it should.”
That's the Jezza 'do you condemn Hamas terrorism?' formulation.
Elon is, of course, a self-proclaimed 'free-speech absolutist', so it was probably an attempt to drive a wedge between the two men, painting Nigel as a boring old centrist-dad character who doesn't mind a bit of censorship. The public will probably side with Nigel on this, but it'll be interesting to see how Elon responds to such a flagrant repudiation of his credo.
That's not what he said. The actual quote was "they won't fly without support", which isn't the same thing at all.
You need a computer file from me to get into your house. I decide not to give you a copy. Where are you sleeping tonight?
(They enshittified the RAF. David Ricardo is an idiot)
The US forced the UK to put their F-35 data management office inside Elgin AFB in Florida. Presumably so they can keep very close tabs on what's going on and stamp out any incipient autonomy.
I suppose it's worked out well for the people who work there. Logically, they should be with the aircraft at RAF Marham in Norfolk - "The Wales of the East".
No. 17 Squadron are also forbidden from moving their test aircraft outside the US. So they have to rough it at Edwards AFB in California.
I suspect there is a big overlap between the egg chasing audience and the audience that doesn't believe in the licence fee. I wonder if this is a strategic deliberate loss.
I was reading Pontypool Front Row legend Graham Price's analysis for the upcoming tournament. He maintained Ireland will shade France and Wales again win the wooden spoon with a second consecutive whitewash. I understand there are already calls to relegate the bottom side and replace them with Georgia, So here in Wales it will make no odds.
It is another example of greed in sport. Sporting authorities again deciding to eat their golden egg.
That’s explosive news. The BBc coverage has always been dynamite especially those hackneyed “poetic” and wistful intros by deep voiced solemn Welsh and Scottish chaps.
That’s explosive news. The BBc coverage has always been dynamite especially those hackneyed “poetic” and wistful intros by deep voiced solemn Welsh and Scottish chaps.
I was reading Pontypool Front Row legend Graham Price's analysis for the upcoming tournament. He maintained Ireland will shade France and Wales again win the wooden spoon with a second consecutive whitewash. I understand there are already calls to relegate the bottom side and replace them with Georgia, So here in Wales it will make no odds.
It is a other example of greed in sport. Sporting authorities again deciding to eat their golden egg.
Nah, it's the market innit. If people will pay for it then they should do so. If they don't then they won't. I'm sure the RFU will explain how many disadvantaged inner city schools will benefit from the extra revenue and support as indeed they may.
Comments
“Studies on migrants in Denmark's economy generally indicate that while immigration from Western countries tends to have a positive impact, migrants from non-Western countries often place a net strain on public finances, with concerns regarding their integration into the labor market and higher reliance on welfare benefits; this disparity is often attributed to differences in education levels and cultural factors, leading to a significant income gap between immigrant groups and native Danes.”
Economist, 2021, et al
And
https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/8844/the-impact-of-immigrants-on-public-finances-a-forecast-analysis-for-denmark#:~:text=IZA DP No.,A Forecast Analysis for Denmark&text=All over Europe, ageing populations,the universal Danish welfare schemes.
“The main conclusion is that immigrants from richer countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from poorer countries have a large negative one”
Where are our migrants from? Japan? Switzerland? No
NEW: These topics did *NOT* come up in Donald Trump’s weekend call with Keir Starmer:
Peter Mandelson
Defence spending hitting 2.5%
Trump’s plans for Greenland
Chagos Islands
US imposing tariffs on UK
Ukraine (which they’ve discussed in depth previously)
But they had a “long and detailed” discussion on range of areas including trade, investment, deregulation.
https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1883852906618610084
(I had foolishly assumed that the context of British polling on whether people agree with Britain introducing tariffs would make the meaning clear.)
The UK introducing tariffs is potentially a lot more damaging for the UK economy than the USA introducing tariffs is damaging for the US economy, I would have thought.
The U.S. has an ability to do global economic damage denied to us. So in absolute terms could create a far greater mess, from whose backwash they would not be immune.
The first exaFLOPS supercomputer wasn't the US Frontier system. China beat the US with not one but two systems. Sunway OceanLight (Sunway SW26010Pro CPUs) and Tianhe-3 (Phytium Arm CPUs and Matrix 2000+ acclerators) got there before the Americans, but they didn't submit official benchmarks because the Americans would have flipped out, and likely whacked more sanctions on China. We can be confident that the Chinese did it though because Jack Dongarra says so.
American regulations aren't stopping China from getting technology, but they are forcing them to develop it themselves. Funnily enough the Chinese are proving quite good at designing their own chips for HPC, mobile, and AI/ML (Huawei Ascend for one).
Reform 14.3% - 5 seats, Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. 38% - 126 seats.
Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; 46% - 484 seats.
If that efficiency of vote continues for next 4 elections, you’ll be saying “surviving quite nicely thank you, all good here, it's idiotic to say coalesce or die.” 🤣
The flaw in your thinking is, how many Reform voters, how many Con voters, see themselves in coalition government with the other? Even if the leaders did - and they are currently dining out on the fact they certainly don’t - will the voters actually follow, or abstain or vote elsewhere in disgust?
Of course even if they did it would not necessarily be that damaging if UK manufacturing and energy producers and farmers could expand production to meet UK consumer demand as they shifted away from more expensive imported Chinese and EU imported goods, energy and produce. Albeit that is an unlikely scenario and UK exporters to China and the EU would still be hit by their retaliatory tariffs
The next GE on current polls will likely be a choice between a Tory and Reform government or a Labour and LD government
1) Deepseek has shown that you don’t need to throw hardware at the problem - Chinese human brain power is simplifying the work required
2) the US thought that by restricting hardware they would create a moat for themselves relative to China. china’s local technology is leaping rapidly ahead because it needs to so the lead the US has is far smaller than Biden and Trump were expecting
Put the two issues together and suddenly the AI world is very different for what people thought it was last week
Will be interesting to see what Farage and Co manage to achieve with the candidates list. Their 2024 list was full of dirty wronguns and chancers. No excuse this time around.
The opportunity for betting on outcomes seems somewhat limited in that scenario.
And in the meantime, the old adage that the other side are merely the opposition and the ones on your side are the real enemy continues to apply.
Mine is that as UK tariffs would be largely self harming, they'd also likely be fairly quickly corrected without systemic damage.
That simply isn't true of US tariffs. The fact that the U.S. would suffer less damage than everyone else, from tariffs they imposed, doesn't mean that their self imposed damage would over time likely be greater than anything we might realistically do to ourselves.
(Unless we were completely insane.)
In some respects, those local elections that happen in May 2025 may be a practice run.
I suspect that there will be a correction to market values and investment, but I wouldn't expect it to be the bubble popping as such. If anything it might make realising the ambitious goals for machine learning a little easier. I think the AI moat has always been more of a meme than reality. Certainly if you intend to publish papers, share sourcecode, and even let people use the thing then people are going to figure out how it works and how to copy it.
Similarly I don't really believe you can create guardrails for AI, you can apply them to your own usage, but others can work around them too easily, or delete them altogether if they run the system for themselves.
(I'm reminded of the sort of British boffindom that Francis Spufford eulogised. Or the way Clive Sinclair started out- buying out-of-tolerance electronic components cheaply and working out what could be done with them anyway.)
https://x.com/ValkStrategy/status/1883645534424154507
Here's an Active Travel Cafe presentation published yesterday. Quite long - there's an hour of it, covering the 20mph scheme, and the 9 months of road safety data we now have since it was introduced.
One thing I had missed was that reduced collision and casualty figures and reduced insurance premiums have come without any traffic calming having been done - so there is potential for even greater benefits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C61sBe39u1c
I think that some here will be interested in the final 10 minute segment at the end by an experienced road designer on what can be done differently where limits are 20mph - around reducing clutter, and also altering places to create a pleasanter environment where the "felt reasonable" speed is lower. There is extra time for drivers to see things, so fewer signs are required, and many do not require lighting, so costs can be reduced.
https://youtu.be/C61sBe39u1c?t=3508
Enjoy the presentation, or even the elevated blood pressure.
https://nitter.poast.org/ValkStrategy/status/1882991687519355344#m
(Tyler Rogoway is a journalist for TheWarZone, Bill Sweetman is the author of "Trillion Dollar Trainwreck" about the F35)
It means we can see the productivity gains in the economy with a much lower barrier to implementation.
I'd almost go as far to say that SKS has looked rather prime ministerial in his reaction to Trump.
The actual quote was "they won't fly without support", which isn't the same thing at all.
(They enshittified the RAF. David Ricardo is an idiot)
So, Biden's staff didn't double check the ACLU's list of "nonviolent drug offenders" and gave clemency to a drug lord in Connecticut who murdered an 8 year old boy and his mother to stop them from testifying.
CT Sen. Blumenthal : "someone dropped the ball... This was a really vicious murder that changed our laws"
https://x.com/mualphaxi/status/1883641365398974808
America’s entire “pardon system” is not fit for purpose, whether it is Rep or Dem
It is leading them to a dark place
All that's gone right now.
I have not yet seen just *which* way forward it is, yet.
It would make a strong header and discussion, to what extent Reform and the Conservative Party are coalitionable with each other - and what’s the inherent vice for both parties going down that route.
Firstly, no, we are not talking about what current polls are predicting about May 3rd 2029, but if the GE vote efficiency against the Brexit parties will change very much, that vote efficiency against the Brexit parties so obviously makes a mockery of vote shares and seat calculators - unarguable from the last election stats - put the shares from last election in the calcs and see what seats they give you. You need to factor this in when thinking what current polls are pointing to.
You are spot on in your first couple of points. Cuddle up with Reform, how many voters (members and donors) do the Conservatives shit out the back bolstering LibDems, in votes and members, perhaps even Labour in donors and money? You said just a few.
We would like to think, whilst Reform have zero workable policies just pie in the sky soundbites, the Conservative fight back against Reform is through credible policies, something Reforms appeal has a FPTP glass ceiling as long as they can’t do serious policy and look and sound like they have workable plans. That advantage goes out the window Tories cuddling up with Reform.
And by asking where would right wing voters go in disgust if Reform and Conservatives cuddle up, further right, Robinson?
Yes. That’s exactly what I think would happen - Reform would shit voters out who hate the Tories, have never voted Tory in their lives, and rate their record in government as disastrous - in other words Conservative Party to how many Reform voters are not part of the needed change, but part of the problem? Parties further right than Reform would start to do very well at expense of Reform, if the Con + Ref cuddle and coalition up.
What I learnt from playing with China’s new AI"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-i-learnt-from-playing-with-chinas-new-ai/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtwbdeFLyyA (100 mins)
Asked on LBC whether X should take down the video, Farage said: “All terrorist material, of course, should be taken down.”
He added: “If you tell me it’s still there, it should come down. Of course it should.”
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/axel-rudakabuna-nigel-farage-elon-musk-x
The SNP and Labour are less efficient as they are often competing with each other, but in that situation the unionist parties are also competing with each other so the Tories don't directly benefit.
The Greens are definitely dilutive - they directly eat into Labour support in the same places.
Reform doesn't have a home region but it does have a distinct "type" of constituency where it's popular, and that's often vs Labour rather than the Conservatives. I could foresee a fairly efficient set up where the Tories go after wealthy right wing votes and Reform go after nationalist working class constituencies.
Report claims TNT Sports set to take Six Nations behind paywall
https://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/broadcasting/report-claims-tnt-sports-set-to-take-six-nations-behind-paywall/5201180.article
I suppose it's worked out well for the people who work there. Logically, they should be with the aircraft at RAF Marham in Norfolk - "The Wales of the East".
No. 17 Squadron are also forbidden from moving their test aircraft outside the US. So they have to rough it at Edwards AFB in California.
It is another example of greed in sport. Sporting authorities again deciding to eat their golden egg.