Is Nigel Farage right? – politicalbetting.com

System

Is Nigel Farage right? – politicalbetting.com

With Nigel Farage suggesting his chances of being prime minister within the next four years are as high as 25%, do Britons see it as a likely prospect?Likely: 18%Unlikely: 65%Among Reform UK votersLikely: 54%Unlikely: 35%https://t.co/FSfXSrAaEE pic.twitter.com/3uezneKDIT

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MattW

First off-topic post in the thread . At position one, my record will never be surpassed.

FPT:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

IHT is on death. If a farmer gifts land 7 years or before dying it’s exempt. So let’s not go overboard on this.

However, it’s a bit of a half-baked reform that has created some collateral damage. There are various ways it could be tightened up. One would be a requirement that the landowner has their permanent residence on the farm. The other that their income is from farming, not rental from tenants. And so on.

Quite so.

I'd rather see the IHT reforms, and proper support for farming done separately (some perhaps in the way you suggest). Not left as a huge subsidy scheme for tax-minimisers.. If Jeremy Clarkson can come out and admit it on prime TV ...

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

You're maliciously conflating farming with landownership. As always.

The imposition of 20% inheritance tax on land previously covered by agricultural property relief of course primarily hits farmers that is why

No, it does not. It hits landowners primarily.

Landowning farmers yes

The tax regulations for APR say landowners. Nowhere does it say farmers. I should know - I had to deal with it for a relative.

That's the primary role of APR and its removal. Farmers are a secondary issue, a subcategory.

Most of those who own land worth over £1 million who previously could claim APR on it are farmers and it is absurd to pretend otherwise.

Your vile class ridden attack on the food producing backbone of this nation to pursue your class war aims is beneath contempt

Your avatar is starting to make sense. Don't worry - when your Master dies, you might end up at Sir Keir's donkey santuary.

Vile comment, this despicable government supported by the likes of you have declared war on the farming community but don't worry, it will be reciprocated.

I doubt there will be a single Labour MP left from a rural or semi rural seat after the next general election

Tiny violins out again for the millionaires

Sod off you pathetic little twat

Even if I sod off, they’re still millionaires

Being a millionaire ought to be something we celebrate, considering the amount of tax they contribute to the exchequer.

I didn’t say it was a negative thing. It just means they shouldn’t be crying about losing a tax-break.

The tax break is for farmland not holidays in the Caribbean, Ferraris and Michelin starred restaurants and Eton fees.

The average farmer earns £24,730 a year, you are clueless on this issue

https://uk.indeed.com/career/farmer/salaries

I would live like a king on £24,730 a year and no mortgage.

On less than average salary you wouldn't and once this tax comes in most farmers would be on minimum wage at best rates given the average farmer works 65 hours a week

https://www.agrirs.co.uk/blog/2023/07/can-the-4-day-working-week-work-for-farmers?source=google.com

Poor millionaires.

It is scum like you who support this useless government who are the reason this Labour government is already one of the most despised in history

I may be scum but I am not a millionaire.

I don’t really know why you're having this argument. Clearly it's not a very good policy, and it's going to raise an extremely tiny amount of money for a great deal of aggravation and possibly real harm. Defend the Government when it does something right.

Because I actually support this policy? I am sick and tired of people in this country constantly moaning about how bad they have it when they just don’t. If we are going to sort out our finances then everyone has to pull their weight and that includes millionaire farmers and pensioners with enough money to heat their homes. The Tories have spent the last 14 years enriching their client vote and now they are fuming Labour are not. Boo hoo.

I am sick and tired of Labour supporters like you backing your useless government trashing farmers, pensioners and small business owners to enrich your client vote like GPs and train drivers.

The NHS received billions upon billions in the Tory years without any real efficiency savings or changes to the way it was funded

Well said, we haven't agreed on a lot in the last decade but I feel like this an issue that unites a lot of Tories and people on the centre right. Labour are destroying our nation at the altar of NHS spending. Our farmers are going to be driven out of business and be forced to sell their land to giant American agribusinesses and the NHS is going to be as bad as it ever was.

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

IHT is on death. If a farmer gifts land 7 years or before dying it’s exempt. So let’s not go overboard on this.

However, it’s a bit of a half-baked reform that has created some collateral damage. There are various ways it could be tightened up. One would be a requirement that the landowner has their permanent residence on the farm. The other that their income is from farming, not rental from tenants. And so on.

Quite so.

I'd rather see the IHT reforms, and proper support for farming done separately (some perhaps in the way you suggest). Not left as a huge subsidy scheme for tax-minimisers.. If Jeremy Clarkson can come out and admit it on prime TV ...

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

You're maliciously conflating farming with landownership. As always.

The imposition of 20% inheritance tax on land previously covered by agricultural property relief of course primarily hits farmers that is why

No, it does not. It hits landowners primarily.

Landowning farmers yes

The tax regulations for APR say landowners. Nowhere does it say farmers. I should know - I had to deal with it for a relative.

That's the primary role of APR and its removal. Farmers are a secondary issue, a subcategory.

Most of those who own land worth over £1 million who previously could claim APR on it are farmers and it is absurd to pretend otherwise.

Your vile class ridden attack on the food producing backbone of this nation to pursue your class war aims is beneath contempt

Your avatar is starting to make sense. Don't worry - when your Master dies, you might end up at Sir Keir's donkey santuary.

Vile comment, this despicable government supported by the likes of you have declared war on the farming community but don't worry, it will be reciprocated.

I doubt there will be a single Labour MP left from a rural or semi rural seat after the next general election

Tiny violins out again for the millionaires

Sod off you pathetic little twat

Even if I sod off, they’re still millionaires

Being a millionaire ought to be something we celebrate, considering the amount of tax they contribute to the exchequer.

I didn’t say it was a negative thing. It just means they shouldn’t be crying about losing a tax-break.

The tax break is for farmland not holidays in the Caribbean, Ferraris and Michelin starred restaurants and Eton fees.

The average farmer earns £24,730 a year, you are clueless on this issue

https://uk.indeed.com/career/farmer/salaries

I would live like a king on £24,730 a year and no mortgage.

On less than average salary you wouldn't and once this tax comes in most farmers would be on minimum wage at best rates given the average farmer works 65 hours a week

https://www.agrirs.co.uk/blog/2023/07/can-the-4-day-working-week-work-for-farmers?source=google.com

Poor millionaires.

It is scum like you who support this useless government who are the reason this Labour government is already one of the most despised in history

I may be scum but I am not a millionaire.

I don’t really know why you're having this argument. Clearly it's not a very good policy, and it's going to raise an extremely tiny amount of money for a great deal of aggravation and possibly real harm. Defend the Government when it does something right.

Because I actually support this policy? I am sick and tired of people in this country constantly moaning about how bad they have it when they just don’t. If we are going to sort out our finances then everyone has to pull their weight and that includes millionaire farmers and pensioners with enough money to heat their homes. The Tories have spent the last 14 years enriching their client vote and now they are fuming Labour are not. Boo hoo.

You say that without having ever been a farmer though. They have terrible conditions and few of them do it for the money. Anyone who wants to become a farmer needs money to burn because they will never really find any profit in it, at least not in the UK.

They don’t do it out of the goodness of their heart, that’s romanticised and naive nonsense.

The big agribusinesses you're thinking of aren't covered by this change, a lot of them are foreign owned. This change targets family run farms run by British people and a lot of them are in it because they love to farm despite all of the terrible conditions. You really are quite clueless about it. Who should I trust about food security, Sainsbury's and Tesco or you, a bitter city dwelling Labour voter?

I’m not bitter as I support the policy

And yet you're positively gleeful to destroy family run farms and businesses because you hate them for voting to leave the EU.

They are literally millionaires.

But you're not bitter? Pull the other one. It's base envy and nothing more. These people are out there feeding the nation at 1-2% annual yields on the capital values you ascribe to them. All you see is the land value and you're bitter and jealous of it, what I see is a hard working farmer up against inflation, climate change and variable market pricing looking to eke out 3% in a good year.

He's a disgrace.

Oh get a grip. Lots of people are anxious about money but you’re going into bat for people who have literally millions of pounds worth of assets but a low yield occasionally. Talk about a lack of perspective.

Hmmm. I don’t think I would describe it as ‘a low yield occasionally,’ especially not in the last few years with weather patterns and disease making things worse. As noted above, it’s mostly a low yield with random bumper years where you do very well.

Truthfully if we wanted a sane agricultural policy (which CAP, for example, was not) we would focus on giving guaranteed minimum incomes to those actually farming land responsibly and productively to drive agribusinesses out of business and guarantee cheap food locally.

But that won’t happen because DEFRA are the DfE on crack (and my father used to work for them, so that’s not personal).

I was saying that last night, that we should subsidise farm output, not farm land. Then tenant farmers alike also benefit. I am not anti farmer at all. However, apparently I am scum and a disgrace for this position bla bla.

If the goal is to encourage food production and food security then to me this is the best tool. Otherwise you’re just entrenching the position of people who are objectively in a very privileged position in terms of inheritance, regardless of the economics of farming.

The issue there aiui is that that was done for a generation after the war, and achieved increased output, but gave us industrialised farming, pesticide pollution, hedge rows (eg) ripped out, and grain deserts in East Anglia.

We moved on from that pure output emphasis, to making sustainability more central, when our birds, insects and wildlife almost vanished, and our rivers and streams became pollution sewers.

I'm sure the model needs evolving further, however we need a new synthesis which does not cause the same downside as previously.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Hmm.

I suspect the Conservatives will bounce back a bit... if they don't they're in existential trouble. Labour would lose ground even if they were governing well.

Could the Lib Dems make headway? Probably.

I'm not sure I see Reform doing that well. It'll be interesting to see how their Tommy Robinson split works out.

DecrepiterJohnL

MattW said:

First off-topic post in the thread . At position one, my record will never be surpassed.

FPT:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

IHT is on death. If a farmer gifts land 7 years or before dying it’s exempt. So let’s not go overboard on this.

However, it’s a bit of a half-baked reform that has created some collateral damage. There are various ways it could be tightened up. One would be a requirement that the landowner has their permanent residence on the farm. The other that their income is from farming, not rental from tenants. And so on.

Quite so.

I'd rather see the IHT reforms, and proper support for farming done separately (some perhaps in the way you suggest). Not left as a huge subsidy scheme for tax-minimisers.. If Jeremy Clarkson can come out and admit it on prime TV ...

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

You're maliciously conflating farming with landownership. As always.

The imposition of 20% inheritance tax on land previously covered by agricultural property relief of course primarily hits farmers that is why

No, it does not. It hits landowners primarily.

Landowning farmers yes

The tax regulations for APR say landowners. Nowhere does it say farmers. I should know - I had to deal with it for a relative.

That's the primary role of APR and its removal. Farmers are a secondary issue, a subcategory.

Most of those who own land worth over £1 million who previously could claim APR on it are farmers and it is absurd to pretend otherwise.

Your vile class ridden attack on the food producing backbone of this nation to pursue your class war aims is beneath contempt

Your avatar is starting to make sense. Don't worry - when your Master dies, you might end up at Sir Keir's donkey santuary.

Vile comment, this despicable government supported by the likes of you have declared war on the farming community but don't worry, it will be reciprocated.

I doubt there will be a single Labour MP left from a rural or semi rural seat after the next general election

Tiny violins out again for the millionaires

Sod off you pathetic little twat

Even if I sod off, they’re still millionaires

Being a millionaire ought to be something we celebrate, considering the amount of tax they contribute to the exchequer.

I didn’t say it was a negative thing. It just means they shouldn’t be crying about losing a tax-break.

The tax break is for farmland not holidays in the Caribbean, Ferraris and Michelin starred restaurants and Eton fees.

The average farmer earns £24,730 a year, you are clueless on this issue

https://uk.indeed.com/career/farmer/salaries

I would live like a king on £24,730 a year and no mortgage.

On less than average salary you wouldn't and once this tax comes in most farmers would be on minimum wage at best rates given the average farmer works 65 hours a week

https://www.agrirs.co.uk/blog/2023/07/can-the-4-day-working-week-work-for-farmers?source=google.com

Poor millionaires.

It is scum like you who support this useless government who are the reason this Labour government is already one of the most despised in history

I may be scum but I am not a millionaire.

I don’t really know why you're having this argument. Clearly it's not a very good policy, and it's going to raise an extremely tiny amount of money for a great deal of aggravation and possibly real harm. Defend the Government when it does something right.

Because I actually support this policy? I am sick and tired of people in this country constantly moaning about how bad they have it when they just don’t. If we are going to sort out our finances then everyone has to pull their weight and that includes millionaire farmers and pensioners with enough money to heat their homes. The Tories have spent the last 14 years enriching their client vote and now they are fuming Labour are not. Boo hoo.

I am sick and tired of Labour supporters like you backing your useless government trashing farmers, pensioners and small business owners to enrich your client vote like GPs and train drivers.

The NHS received billions upon billions in the Tory years without any real efficiency savings or changes to the way it was funded

Well said, we haven't agreed on a lot in the last decade but I feel like this an issue that unites a lot of Tories and people on the centre right. Labour are destroying our nation at the altar of NHS spending. Our farmers are going to be driven out of business and be forced to sell their land to giant American agribusinesses and the NHS is going to be as bad as it ever was.

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

IHT is on death. If a farmer gifts land 7 years or before dying it’s exempt. So let’s not go overboard on this.

However, it’s a bit of a half-baked reform that has created some collateral damage. There are various ways it could be tightened up. One would be a requirement that the landowner has their permanent residence on the farm. The other that their income is from farming, not rental from tenants. And so on.

Quite so.

I'd rather see the IHT reforms, and proper support for farming done separately (some perhaps in the way you suggest). Not left as a huge subsidy scheme for tax-minimisers.. If Jeremy Clarkson can come out and admit it on prime TV ...

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

You're maliciously conflating farming with landownership. As always.

The imposition of 20% inheritance tax on land previously covered by agricultural property relief of course primarily hits farmers that is why

No, it does not. It hits landowners primarily.

Landowning farmers yes

The tax regulations for APR say landowners. Nowhere does it say farmers. I should know - I had to deal with it for a relative.

That's the primary role of APR and its removal. Farmers are a secondary issue, a subcategory.

Most of those who own land worth over £1 million who previously could claim APR on it are farmers and it is absurd to pretend otherwise.

Your vile class ridden attack on the food producing backbone of this nation to pursue your class war aims is beneath contempt

Your avatar is starting to make sense. Don't worry - when your Master dies, you might end up at Sir Keir's donkey santuary.

Vile comment, this despicable government supported by the likes of you have declared war on the farming community but don't worry, it will be reciprocated.

I doubt there will be a single Labour MP left from a rural or semi rural seat after the next general election

Tiny violins out again for the millionaires

Sod off you pathetic little twat

Even if I sod off, they’re still millionaires

Being a millionaire ought to be something we celebrate, considering the amount of tax they contribute to the exchequer.

I didn’t say it was a negative thing. It just means they shouldn’t be crying about losing a tax-break.

The tax break is for farmland not holidays in the Caribbean, Ferraris and Michelin starred restaurants and Eton fees.

The average farmer earns £24,730 a year, you are clueless on this issue

https://uk.indeed.com/career/farmer/salaries

I would live like a king on £24,730 a year and no mortgage.

On less than average salary you wouldn't and once this tax comes in most farmers would be on minimum wage at best rates given the average farmer works 65 hours a week

https://www.agrirs.co.uk/blog/2023/07/can-the-4-day-working-week-work-for-farmers?source=google.com

Poor millionaires.

It is scum like you who support this useless government who are the reason this Labour government is already one of the most despised in history

I may be scum but I am not a millionaire.

I don’t really know why you're having this argument. Clearly it's not a very good policy, and it's going to raise an extremely tiny amount of money for a great deal of aggravation and possibly real harm. Defend the Government when it does something right.

Because I actually support this policy? I am sick and tired of people in this country constantly moaning about how bad they have it when they just don’t. If we are going to sort out our finances then everyone has to pull their weight and that includes millionaire farmers and pensioners with enough money to heat their homes. The Tories have spent the last 14 years enriching their client vote and now they are fuming Labour are not. Boo hoo.

You say that without having ever been a farmer though. They have terrible conditions and few of them do it for the money. Anyone who wants to become a farmer needs money to burn because they will never really find any profit in it, at least not in the UK.

They don’t do it out of the goodness of their heart, that’s romanticised and naive nonsense.

The big agribusinesses you're thinking of aren't covered by this change, a lot of them are foreign owned. This change targets family run farms run by British people and a lot of them are in it because they love to farm despite all of the terrible conditions. You really are quite clueless about it. Who should I trust about food security, Sainsbury's and Tesco or you, a bitter city dwelling Labour voter?

I’m not bitter as I support the policy

And yet you're positively gleeful to destroy family run farms and businesses because you hate them for voting to leave the EU.

They are literally millionaires.

But you're not bitter? Pull the other one. It's base envy and nothing more. These people are out there feeding the nation at 1-2% annual yields on the capital values you ascribe to them. All you see is the land value and you're bitter and jealous of it, what I see is a hard working farmer up against inflation, climate change and variable market pricing looking to eke out 3% in a good year.

He's a disgrace.

Oh get a grip. Lots of people are anxious about money but you’re going into bat for people who have literally millions of pounds worth of assets but a low yield occasionally. Talk about a lack of perspective.

Hmmm. I don’t think I would describe it as ‘a low yield occasionally,’ especially not in the last few years with weather patterns and disease making things worse. As noted above, it’s mostly a low yield with random bumper years where you do very well.

Truthfully if we wanted a sane agricultural policy (which CAP, for example, was not) we would focus on giving guaranteed minimum incomes to those actually farming land responsibly and productively to drive agribusinesses out of business and guarantee cheap food locally.

But that won’t happen because DEFRA are the DfE on crack (and my father used to work for them, so that’s not personal).

I was saying that last night, that we should subsidise farm output, not farm land. Then tenant farmers alike also benefit. I am not anti farmer at all. However, apparently I am scum and a disgrace for this position bla bla.

If the goal is to encourage food production and food security then to me this is the best tool. Otherwise you’re just entrenching the position of people who are objectively in a very privileged position in terms of inheritance, regardless of the economics of farming.

The issue there aiui is that that was done for a generation after the war, and achieved increased output, but gave us industrialised farming, pesticide pollution, hedge rows (eg) ripped out, and grain deserts in East Anglia.

We moved on from that pure output emphasis, to making sustainability more central, when our birds, insects and wildlife almost vanished, and our rivers and streams became pollution sewers.

I'm sure the model needs evolving further, however we need a new synthesis which does not cause the same downside as previously.

Do the judges accept edited first posts? Or massive c&p'd FPTs?

IanB2

He’s far right.

IanB2

The betting is significantly understating the chances of a Labour successor to Starmer, before they eventually go down to defeat. More likely after a second term.

Sandpit

Definitely QTWTAIN.

Morris_Dancer

F1: while interesting that Ladbrokes have each way angles now open on the title betting, the closeness of the market makes it less intriguing than would normally be the case.

I'm keeping an eye out for driver match bets. Piastri versus Hamilton/Leclerc could be worth a look.

bondegezou

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Leon

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

DecrepiterJohnL

IanB2 said:

The betting is significantly understating the chances of a Labour successor to Starmer, before they eventually go down to defeat. More likely after a second term.

On balance, I still expect Starmer to retire early, following Mr Wilson's example.

Complicating that are two reasons Starmer might not want to go. First, he will not want to be seen to have been forced out by Trump. Second, there is no obvious successor because neither the Chancellor nor Home Secretaries have made much progress. No-one has, except arguably Ed Miliband but he has failed already as leader.

MattW

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:

First off-topic post in the thread . At position one, my record will never be surpassed.

FPT:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

IHT is on death. If a farmer gifts land 7 years or before dying it’s exempt. So let’s not go overboard on this.

However, it’s a bit of a half-baked reform that has created some collateral damage. There are various ways it could be tightened up. One would be a requirement that the landowner has their permanent residence on the farm. The other that their income is from farming, not rental from tenants. And so on.

Quite so.

I'd rather see the IHT reforms, and proper support for farming done separately (some perhaps in the way you suggest). Not left as a huge subsidy scheme for tax-minimisers.. If Jeremy Clarkson can come out and admit it on prime TV ...

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

You're maliciously conflating farming with landownership. As always.

The imposition of 20% inheritance tax on land previously covered by agricultural property relief of course primarily hits farmers that is why

No, it does not. It hits landowners primarily.

Landowning farmers yes

The tax regulations for APR say landowners. Nowhere does it say farmers. I should know - I had to deal with it for a relative.

That's the primary role of APR and its removal. Farmers are a secondary issue, a subcategory.

Most of those who own land worth over £1 million who previously could claim APR on it are farmers and it is absurd to pretend otherwise.

Your vile class ridden attack on the food producing backbone of this nation to pursue your class war aims is beneath contempt

Your avatar is starting to make sense. Don't worry - when your Master dies, you might end up at Sir Keir's donkey santuary.

Vile comment, this despicable government supported by the likes of you have declared war on the farming community but don't worry, it will be reciprocated.

I doubt there will be a single Labour MP left from a rural or semi rural seat after the next general election

Tiny violins out again for the millionaires

Sod off you pathetic little twat

Even if I sod off, they’re still millionaires

Being a millionaire ought to be something we celebrate, considering the amount of tax they contribute to the exchequer.

I didn’t say it was a negative thing. It just means they shouldn’t be crying about losing a tax-break.

The tax break is for farmland not holidays in the Caribbean, Ferraris and Michelin starred restaurants and Eton fees.

The average farmer earns £24,730 a year, you are clueless on this issue

https://uk.indeed.com/career/farmer/salaries

I would live like a king on £24,730 a year and no mortgage.

On less than average salary you wouldn't and once this tax comes in most farmers would be on minimum wage at best rates given the average farmer works 65 hours a week

https://www.agrirs.co.uk/blog/2023/07/can-the-4-day-working-week-work-for-farmers?source=google.com

Poor millionaires.

It is scum like you who support this useless government who are the reason this Labour government is already one of the most despised in history

I may be scum but I am not a millionaire.

I don’t really know why you're having this argument. Clearly it's not a very good policy, and it's going to raise an extremely tiny amount of money for a great deal of aggravation and possibly real harm. Defend the Government when it does something right.

Because I actually support this policy? I am sick and tired of people in this country constantly moaning about how bad they have it when they just don’t. If we are going to sort out our finances then everyone has to pull their weight and that includes millionaire farmers and pensioners with enough money to heat their homes. The Tories have spent the last 14 years enriching their client vote and now they are fuming Labour are not. Boo hoo.

I am sick and tired of Labour supporters like you backing your useless government trashing farmers, pensioners and small business owners to enrich your client vote like GPs and train drivers.

The NHS received billions upon billions in the Tory years without any real efficiency savings or changes to the way it was funded

Well said, we haven't agreed on a lot in the last decade but I feel like this an issue that unites a lot of Tories and people on the centre right. Labour are destroying our nation at the altar of NHS spending. Our farmers are going to be driven out of business and be forced to sell their land to giant American agribusinesses and the NHS is going to be as bad as it ever was.

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Eabhal said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

IHT is on death. If a farmer gifts land 7 years or before dying it’s exempt. So let’s not go overboard on this.

However, it’s a bit of a half-baked reform that has created some collateral damage. There are various ways it could be tightened up. One would be a requirement that the landowner has their permanent residence on the farm. The other that their income is from farming, not rental from tenants. And so on.

Quite so.

I'd rather see the IHT reforms, and proper support for farming done separately (some perhaps in the way you suggest). Not left as a huge subsidy scheme for tax-minimisers.. If Jeremy Clarkson can come out and admit it on prime TV ...

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MJW said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Badenoch should gamble.

Anyone in her party who tweets or speaks on camera saying Trump is the new messiah and England should worship him and Musk she should sack immediately. Braverman out etc

Paint Reform as Trump Party (English branch). Make Farage own Trump.

If/when Trump chaos 2.0 wrecks world economy and american civil peace and order she will reap the rewards.

As I say, it's a gamble. But she is running out of options.

That's not a gamble, it's a left wing person's political wet dream. No remotely impartial or informed strategist would suggest something so stupid.

It gets to the basic problem the Tories have though, which can be seen if you look at each party's voters view of Trump and Musk. A majority still saying they'll vote Tory hold profoundly negative views of Trump. Reform is the only party whose voters have a net positive view. That correlates with a form of anti-establishment, anti-institutional thinking that views all mainstream politicians and parties as having failed and radical right-wingers as the answer.

So going down the 'let's be more Reformy' route maybe a dead end - because you can't be the insurgents, you're the Conservative Party and have ruled Britain for two thirds of the last 50 years. And by being more Reform you may lose your remaining institutionalist voters while not gaining much in the way of those who support Reform because they want to smash up the system.

It still might be a longshot but their best bet might be ditching the populism - which partly damns your selves - and trying to rebrand as an institutionalist alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems with a more right-wing economic bent. Because it's difficult to see how you get your populist 2019 Boris voters back now Reform are a serious rival.

Right wing policies are not 'Reformy' - they are Tory policies. Reducing immigration to the low tens of thousands was a policy that was central to the manifestos of repeated Conservative election victories, and they repeatedly blew it. The same for reducing taxes, a tough approach to law and order, and shrinking the size of the state. The only reason there is 'an insurgency' is because the Tories have promised these policies, repeatedly failed to deliver.

I would also argue that the old consensus in politics is dying - look at the way Starmer and Reeves are now scrambling for growth. Why would you want to get on board that sinking ship?

And that's a problem for the Tories currently - Labour have been terrible but by and large they've continued the policies of the Sunak Government. Net Zero, lax immigration, low growth, high taxes - they have all been accelerated by Labour but they were well underway with the Tories.

Rishi cut immigration more than Boris to be fair to him and never targeted pensioners, small businesses and farmers like Labour have

That is not true - there was already a deeply ingrained very anti-farmer/food production policy in the UK. Subsidies for rewilding, cash rewards for leaving the industry etc. - listen to the farmers on the protests, they will laugh if you tell them the anti-farmer stuff started with SKS. Like everything else, it has just accelerated.

A bit of rewilding was a drop in the ocean compared to the imposition of 20% IHT on agricultural land over £1 million

Only 20%. The rest of us should be so lucky.

What we need are policies to support farming - not perpetuate the landowner tax fiddle.

Crap, the average farmer earns little more than average salary, taxing their farmland too is just going to devastate our food producers

You're maliciously conflating farming with landownership. As always.

The imposition of 20% inheritance tax on land previously covered by agricultural property relief of course primarily hits farmers that is why

No, it does not. It hits landowners primarily.

Landowning farmers yes

The tax regulations for APR say landowners. Nowhere does it say farmers. I should know - I had to deal with it for a relative.

That's the primary role of APR and its removal. Farmers are a secondary issue, a subcategory.

Most of those who own land worth over £1 million who previously could claim APR on it are farmers and it is absurd to pretend otherwise.

Your vile class ridden attack on the food producing backbone of this nation to pursue your class war aims is beneath contempt

Your avatar is starting to make sense. Don't worry - when your Master dies, you might end up at Sir Keir's donkey santuary.

Vile comment, this despicable government supported by the likes of you have declared war on the farming community but don't worry, it will be reciprocated.

I doubt there will be a single Labour MP left from a rural or semi rural seat after the next general election

Tiny violins out again for the millionaires

Sod off you pathetic little twat

Even if I sod off, they’re still millionaires

Being a millionaire ought to be something we celebrate, considering the amount of tax they contribute to the exchequer.

I didn’t say it was a negative thing. It just means they shouldn’t be crying about losing a tax-break.

The tax break is for farmland not holidays in the Caribbean, Ferraris and Michelin starred restaurants and Eton fees.

The average farmer earns £24,730 a year, you are clueless on this issue

https://uk.indeed.com/career/farmer/salaries

I would live like a king on £24,730 a year and no mortgage.

On less than average salary you wouldn't and once this tax comes in most farmers would be on minimum wage at best rates given the average farmer works 65 hours a week

https://www.agrirs.co.uk/blog/2023/07/can-the-4-day-working-week-work-for-farmers?source=google.com

Poor millionaires.

It is scum like you who support this useless government who are the reason this Labour government is already one of the most despised in history

I may be scum but I am not a millionaire.

I don’t really know why you're having this argument. Clearly it's not a very good policy, and it's going to raise an extremely tiny amount of money for a great deal of aggravation and possibly real harm. Defend the Government when it does something right.

Because I actually support this policy? I am sick and tired of people in this country constantly moaning about how bad they have it when they just don’t. If we are going to sort out our finances then everyone has to pull their weight and that includes millionaire farmers and pensioners with enough money to heat their homes. The Tories have spent the last 14 years enriching their client vote and now they are fuming Labour are not. Boo hoo.

You say that without having ever been a farmer though. They have terrible conditions and few of them do it for the money. Anyone who wants to become a farmer needs money to burn because they will never really find any profit in it, at least not in the UK.

They don’t do it out of the goodness of their heart, that’s romanticised and naive nonsense.

The big agribusinesses you're thinking of aren't covered by this change, a lot of them are foreign owned. This change targets family run farms run by British people and a lot of them are in it because they love to farm despite all of the terrible conditions. You really are quite clueless about it. Who should I trust about food security, Sainsbury's and Tesco or you, a bitter city dwelling Labour voter?

I’m not bitter as I support the policy

And yet you're positively gleeful to destroy family run farms and businesses because you hate them for voting to leave the EU.

They are literally millionaires.

But you're not bitter? Pull the other one. It's base envy and nothing more. These people are out there feeding the nation at 1-2% annual yields on the capital values you ascribe to them. All you see is the land value and you're bitter and jealous of it, what I see is a hard working farmer up against inflation, climate change and variable market pricing looking to eke out 3% in a good year.

He's a disgrace.

Oh get a grip. Lots of people are anxious about money but you’re going into bat for people who have literally millions of pounds worth of assets but a low yield occasionally. Talk about a lack of perspective.

Hmmm. I don’t think I would describe it as ‘a low yield occasionally,’ especially not in the last few years with weather patterns and disease making things worse. As noted above, it’s mostly a low yield with random bumper years where you do very well.

Truthfully if we wanted a sane agricultural policy (which CAP, for example, was not) we would focus on giving guaranteed minimum incomes to those actually farming land responsibly and productively to drive agribusinesses out of business and guarantee cheap food locally.

But that won’t happen because DEFRA are the DfE on crack (and my father used to work for them, so that’s not personal).

I was saying that last night, that we should subsidise farm output, not farm land. Then tenant farmers alike also benefit. I am not anti farmer at all. However, apparently I am scum and a disgrace for this position bla bla.

If the goal is to encourage food production and food security then to me this is the best tool. Otherwise you’re just entrenching the position of people who are objectively in a very privileged position in terms of inheritance, regardless of the economics of farming.

The issue there aiui is that that was done for a generation after the war, and achieved increased output, but gave us industrialised farming, pesticide pollution, hedge rows (eg) ripped out, and grain deserts in East Anglia.

We moved on from that pure output emphasis, to making sustainability more central, when our birds, insects and wildlife almost vanished, and our rivers and streams became pollution sewers.

I'm sure the model needs evolving further, however we need a new synthesis which does not cause the same downside as previously.

Do the judges accept edited first posts? Or massive c&p'd FPTs?

Ask me again in 15 minutes !

I agree the post I am replying to is huge, but I don't think I duplicated, and I am not responsible for everybody else waffling.

Eabhal

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

MattW

On the header, I think at those odds it's a little optimistic.

Bobby J may be a good trading bet, and N-N-Nigel a lay, but I wonder if it is a deliberate trick question - the 4 year things seems bizarre.

RochdalePioneers

I think there is a decent risk - perhaps 40% - that Reform take off in the polls during this parliament. All of the factors are in place:
Labour doing little and the economy not improving
Tories led by bonkers refusing to accept the mess they made
Reform connecting with left behind voters and so far not saying anything crazy

The scenario is simple - Farage shows leadership, and points to the Trumpian successes in deporting migrants and clamping down on law and order issues and says we can have that. Labour wail about how nasty it is, the Tories cry about how they already did all that (stop laughing) and could do again. And the LibDems say Trump is awful we need to reverse course.

Farage PM would need various scenarios to play out. A leading one being that the rarely or non voters turn out and say they're backing him. We all know that non-voters don't vote, but they have occasionally and there is polling suggesting they are backing Reform now. Add them to the voting roll and all bets are off.

The others are that Labour meander along and fail the red wall as badly as the Tories did, the Tories leave bonkers in place or better still replace her with Jenrick (stop laughing) - both are diabolically bad for Tory prospects. And that the Davey "we can do better than this" message resonates and builds its own quiet momentum.

Result? Reform sweep the red wall, midlands and broken towns, LibDems add another slew of seats - into midlands and northern places they once held. Tories collapse still further, shrieking into their copies of the Daily Telegraph.

Dopermean

So the only people who think it likely that Farage will be PM in next 4 years are Reform supporters.
Not sure that's telling us anything new, just confirming previously held opinions of Reform supporters.

Taz

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

Although this is mainly the Tories legacy Labour will only have a certain period of time to sort this out and when stories come out, and probably will continue to come out, like the one in the town in Northants where residents have complained about migrants hanging around outside schools and Plod's response has been feeble. More of these will simply fuel the far right and enfeeble Labour. I do think they will be judged on their handling of it, Especially in the red wall.

Dura_Ace

stodge said:

It’s analogous to using the RAF to send migrants to Rwanda rather than chartering commercial flights. I imagine the RAF would argue they’d be better defending NATO airspace than sending three or four migrants to the middle of Africa.

Yeah, you generally don't get to debate about whether the thing you've just been ordered to do is the optimum use of resources or not.

As my old CO used to say, "I'm telling you what's going to happen not soliciting opinions."

The last spasm of Big Rish's Rwanda plan was to use RAF A330MRTT. They would definitely do it if ordered because it'd be a career killer to demur.

MattW

Dopermean said:

So the only people who think it likely that Farage will be PM in next 4 years are Reform supporters.
Not sure that's telling us anything new, just confirming previously held opinions of Reform supporters.

I think it tells us quite a lot about the thoughtfulness or otherwise of your average Reform supporter, tbh.

Taz

RochdalePioneers said:

I think there is a decent risk - perhaps 40% - that Reform take off in the polls during this parliament. All of the factors are in place:
Labour doing little and the economy not improving
Tories led by bonkers refusing to accept the mess they made
Reform connecting with left behind voters and so far not saying anything crazy

The scenario is simple - Farage shows leadership, and points to the Trumpian successes in deporting migrants and clamping down on law and order issues and says we can have that. Labour wail about how nasty it is, the Tories cry about how they already did all that (stop laughing) and could do again. And the LibDems say Trump is awful we need to reverse course.

Farage PM would need various scenarios to play out. A leading one being that the rarely or non voters turn out and say they're backing him. We all know that non-voters don't vote, but they have occasionally and there is polling suggesting they are backing Reform now. Add them to the voting roll and all bets are off.

The others are that Labour meander along and fail the red wall as badly as the Tories did, the Tories leave bonkers in place or better still replace her with Jenrick (stop laughing) - both are diabolically bad for Tory prospects. And that the Davey "we can do better than this" message resonates and builds its own quiet momentum.

Result? Reform sweep the red wall, midlands and broken towns, LibDems add another slew of seats - into midlands and northern places they once held. Tories collapse still further, shrieking into their copies of the Daily Telegraph.

The key is the BIB and he has shown, historically, to be a bit flightly. Likes starting projects but does he like to see them through,

Maybe it will be different this time. Maybe not. We shall see.

WhisperingOracle

Morning, PB'ers.

A lot of talk about Deepseek outpacing U.S. AI. Trump.will not be happy, after his 500 billion promise.

numbertwelve

I am not a Reform supporter but I think it is entirely possible.

There is a lot of time still to run on the parliament. The big two questions are 1) how people will perceive Labour in the lead up to the next GE - if things have improved a little will they be willing to give them another go, or will they be deeply unpopular with people casting about for an alternative and 2) whether Reform are able to consolidate the reverse takeover of Tory votes.

1) is very difficult to predict IMHO. 2) I believe hinges on Reform’s performance in the 2026 elections - don’t understate these, if they’re beating the Tories across the UK I think it will be the starting gun for a realignment.

Leon

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Foxy

Dopermean said:

So the only people who think it likely that Farage will be PM in next 4 years are Reform supporters.
Not sure that's telling us anything new, just confirming previously held opinions of Reform supporters.

There's a near zero chance, not least because the election is over 4 years away, Labour have a huge majority and won't go early if the polls are bad.

If the question was 5 years the answer might be different.

Dura_Ace

On topic... Our Nige has a route to No.10, it's not exactly straight or easy but it exists.

At the next GE he has to be leader of the Fukkers and they have to be at least the biggest party in a hung parliament. That's not a 0% chance, but it's definitely less than 50%. 25% sounds about right.

10% is way too high for Jam Jars. There is no way she makes to the GE, nevermind wins it.

Smart51

Nigel Farage is a stirrer. What he says isn't meant to be right (or wrong), it's meant to wind people up or to self aggrandise. If you're asking "is he right", you're asking the wrong question.

Taz

WhisperingOracle said:

Morning, PB'ers.

A lot of talk about Deepseek outpacing U.S. AI. Trump.will not be happy, after his 500 billion promise.

Won't he ?

He may save a shed load of cash, He may be ecstatic at it. Nvidia and the others less so.

Eabhal

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Casino_Royale

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

I think that's wishful thinking.

Labour always tries to campaign on the NHS. It's frequently not enough to win an election, or even come close.

MarqueeMark

DecrepiterJohnL said:

IanB2 said:

The betting is significantly understating the chances of a Labour successor to Starmer, before they eventually go down to defeat. More likely after a second term.

On balance, I still expect Starmer to retire early, following Mr Wilson's example.

Complicating that are two reasons Starmer might not want to go. First, he will not want to be seen to have been forced out by Trump. Second, there is no obvious successor because neither the Chancellor nor Home Secretaries have made much progress. No-one has, except arguably Ed Miliband but he has failed already as leader.

But Wilson was suffering from the early stages of dementia. And knew it.

squareroot2

Farage is plausible in a way just like pyramid sellers.

Taz

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

I do think that as most people on this board, middle class, privileged and some entitles, don't really know these areas and what these peoples communities or lives are like. They just know they don't like their politics and look down on them. They're oblivious to the dangers to the current order this presents electorally in many areas. Reform are already gaining in the polls.

I do think these communities will judge Labour on this issue, they will also judge them on others, but when they have people dumped into their communities and put up on hotels of course it has an impact and is very visual.

Eabhal

Casino_Royale said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

I think that's wishful thinking.

Labour always tries to campaign on the NHS. It's frequently not enough to win an election, or even come close.

Oh I agree with that. I'm just aware of the difference between disappointment and betrayal. The Conservative record on immigration was seen as the latter.

Leon

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

RochdalePioneers

I've been talking about the rise of Reform for ages - and here it is.

We can avoid this if:
Labour actually discover ambition and go after it. Services that work, an economy that pays the bills etc
Conservatives bin off bonkers *and Jenrick*. Put someone in who actually is a conservative, champion business and populist capitalism

Problem is that I suspect neither of these happen. In which the door is wide open for Farage.

MattW

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

Taz

squareroot2 said:

Farage is plausible in a way just like pyramid sellers.

A while back he was presenting some investment channel on Youtube called "Freedom and Fortune".

There was a crap website associated with it too

I don't think he's a snake oil salesman, he has a message, I just get the impression he gets bored and will move on.

moonshine

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

Taz

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial.

Alzheimers at 60. So sorry to hear that. That is terribly young. One always thinks it is an oldpersons condition.

With my Mother she gets angry as she cannot remember.

I find it helps to go through old pictures with her. When I was down at Xmas she dug out lots of pics of her parents and family when young and I reminisced with her. She thought it was the first time I had seen them. It wasn't.

Leon

What Reform needs is a sequence of polls showing them not just leading but leading by a distance. Say

REF: 32
LAB: 26
CON: 24

Not easy but not impossible. If that happens then we could see a chain reaction as everyone that wants Labour out and also wants THE SMACK OF FIRM GOVERNMENT piles onto the Reform bandwagon and they soar into the mid-high 30s and stay there

Then they might actually win the next GE outright

carnforth

From elsewhere, asking DeepSeek about Tiananmen Square:

https://pastebin.com/g1TqLEyS

MarqueeMark

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial.

To be honest, it depends how aggressive it is. I had a former housemate who was diagnosed with it in his mid-fifties. It was viciously aggressive and he was gone within two years. Hopefully your relative has a more sedate form.

Theuniondivvie

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

Since you brought it up, what do you think PM Farage and a rebound to the SNP in Scotland would do for the Union?

Eabhal

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

For the umpteenth time - that's simply not true. They are primarily switching to lefty parties or DK/won't vote (90%), and that suppression inflates the Reform share as a proportion.

Very few numpties voted for Labour to crack down on immigration, or to lower tax. You would have voted Reform if that's what matters to you (and they did).

Taz

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

MarqueeMark

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

Say what you like about Leon, but some anon acct on the internet he ain't...

Gallowgate

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

For the umpteenth time - that's simply not true. They are primarily switching to lefty parties or DK/won't vote (90%), and that suppression inflates the Reform share as a proportion.

Very few numpties voted for Labour to crack down on immigration, or to lower tax. You would have voted Reform if that's what matters to you (and they did).

I am a DK right now but according to the PB Brains Trust I am a frothing Labour supporter

DavidL

DecrepiterJohnL said:

IanB2 said:

The betting is significantly understating the chances of a Labour successor to Starmer, before they eventually go down to defeat. More likely after a second term.

On balance, I still expect Starmer to retire early, following Mr Wilson's example.

Complicating that are two reasons Starmer might not want to go. First, he will not want to be seen to have been forced out by Trump. Second, there is no obvious successor because neither the Chancellor nor Home Secretaries have made much progress. No-one has, except arguably Ed Miliband but he has failed already as leader.

*First Minister and former leader John Swinney has joined the conversation*

berberian_knows

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Those people that actually vote are already voting Farage, the question might be, do more of them get so fed up they decide to vote.

Leon

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

For the umpteenth time - that's simply not true. They are primarily switching to lefty parties or DK/won't vote (90%), and that suppression inflates the Reform share as a proportion.

Very few numpties voted for Labour to crack down on immigration, or to lower tax. You would have voted Reform if that's what matters to you (and they did).

That’s why I said partly. Reform is drawing support from Tories and Labour. Going down your path of ignoring things like migration, asylum, etc - because our voters don’t care about this - is a sure way of driving further red wall voters, and the young, to Farage

Taz

RochdalePioneers said:

I've been talking about the rise of Reform for ages - and here it is.

We can avoid this if:
Labour actually discover ambition and go after it. Services that work, an economy that pays the bills etc
Conservatives bin off bonkers *and Jenrick*. Put someone in who actually is a conservative, champion business and populist capitalism

Problem is that I suspect neither of these happen. In which the door is wide open for Farage.

Is that person, re the Tories, even in parliament at the moment ?

MattW

Taz said:

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial.

Alzheimers at 60. So sorry to hear that. That is terribly young. One always thinks it is an oldpersons condition.

With my Mother she gets angry as she cannot remember.

I find it helps to go through old pictures with her. When I was down at Xmas she dug out lots of pics of her parents and family when young and I reminisced with her. She thought it was the first time I had seen them. It wasn't.

Yes. One of the things the person mentioned was turning old photo albums (their dad compiled one) into scanned photos via an app. I could not do it as it is still buried somewhere in the leftovers from their parent's estate, some of which I still have, and the dealing-with-the-will process has been somewhat disputaceous and has continued through COVID with various complicated circumstances.

It sounds like it is time to give it some focus this year.

Thanks.

Foxy

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

I would make sure that they had a proper work up by a psychiatrist specialising in old age. There are many conditions that mimic alzheimers and they can be treatable. If not then they may well be able to prescribe some of the drugs that improve the early stages, and give an accurate prognosis.

Sad news though if it is confirmed.

Leon

MarqueeMark said:

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial.

To be honest, it depends how aggressive it is. I had a former housemate who was diagnosed with it in his mid-fifties. It was viciously aggressive and he was gone within two years. Hopefully your relative has a more sedate form.

Jesus. What a terrifying story - and sympathies to the relative of @MattW - let’s hope it’s much kinder there

Carpe fucking Diem, eh

Theuniondivvie

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

I think it very much depends on whether your relative is accepting of the diagnosis or fiercely resistant (I only have experience of the latter). It’s deeply depressing to try and construct memory experiences only to be met with suspicion - ‘Why are you doing this?’

numbertwelve

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

I think Starmer (or those around him) are - belatedly - starting to get it, a bit. The media management has been a little better of late. We also see Rachel’s damascene conversion from chief undertaker of the British economy to Mrs Boosterism. It remains to be seen what the fallout will be from Starmer’s Trump diplomacy but he seems to have handled that live wire ok so far.

We do however have the NI rise coming down the tracks and I’m far from convinced the British economy will turn a corner this year. That will be the big issue.

Eabhal

berberian_knows said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Those people that actually vote are already voting Farage, the question might be, do more of them get so fed up they decide to vote.

Yes, that's possible, and reflected in Reform's polling to an extent already.

Foxy

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

I do think that as most people on this board, middle class, privileged and some entitles, don't really know these areas and what these peoples communities or lives are like. They just know they don't like their politics and look down on them. They're oblivious to the dangers to the current order this presents electorally in many areas. Reform are already gaining in the polls.

I do think these communities will judge Labour on this issue, they will also judge them on others, but when they have people dumped into their communities and put up on hotels of course it has an impact and is very visual.

Equally there are many on this board who stereotype all WWC voters as Refuk in waiting, while the reality is that WWC voters are far more diverse in their thinking. Leanderthal certainly represents a strand of their thinking, but so does Rayner.

DavidL

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

Our experience is that people can proceed at a certain level for long periods of time but react very badly to adverse events such as an illness. Speaking to lots of people is very important, time spent on your own is not good. As they deteriorate you will find that they "lose" things having decided to hide them in obscure places and then forgetting that they have done so. Be careful of keys, wallets, purses etc.

Make sure, if they are going out, that they have their details and useful contact numbers on their person. As they get worse home alarms on the door or when they have a fall are very worthwhile. Music is a great comfort, especially the music they loved when they were young.

It is a brutal disease, not just for the victim but for all around them. I have the deepest sympathy.

Foxy

numbertwelve said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

I think Starmer (or those around him) are - belatedly - starting to get it, a bit. The media management has been a little better of late. We also see Rachel’s damascene conversion from chief undertaker of the British economy to Mrs Boosterism. It remains to be seen what the fallout will be from Starmer’s Trump diplomacy but he seems to have handled that live wire ok so far.

We do however have the NI rise coming down the tracks and I’m far from convinced the British economy will turn a corner this year. That will be the big issue.

As well as the NI rise there is also a big jump in pensions coming, and big rise in the minimum wage. Both are going to put money into the high st economy.

Gallowgate

Best wishes @MattW

Eabhal

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

For the umpteenth time - that's simply not true. They are primarily switching to lefty parties or DK/won't vote (90%), and that suppression inflates the Reform share as a proportion.

Very few numpties voted for Labour to crack down on immigration, or to lower tax. You would have voted Reform if that's what matters to you (and they did).

That’s why I said partly. Reform is drawing support from Tories and Labour. Going down your path of ignoring things like migration, asylum, etc - because our voters don’t care about this - is a sure way of driving further red wall voters, and the young, to Farage

The difference is that Conservative voters are transferring straight to Reform, and in much larger numbers, in a way that Labour voters are not. Reform's existing vote is highly resilient.

It's HYUFD-level manipulation of the numbers, but if you were to put the DKs and Won't Vote back to where they came from, Labour would have a substantial 7 points or so lead, and the Conservatives and Reform are at parity. That's the great source of optimism for Labour.

(FYI I didn't vote Labour)

Leon

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

Taz

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

In some cases we are seeing left wing parties with a stronger line on immigration too and they are doing quite well.

Morris_Dancer

It's a long time ago now, but a guy I knew online had a father with Alzheimer's. While it moved rapidly, his father never had the anger that some (like my grandpa) developed, and even jokingly blamed the Alzheimer's for not doing chores etc so their relationship didn't suffer at all. While this seems, anecdotally, uncommon, it does at least suggest the irritation/anger aspect isn't universal.

Sean_F

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

For the umpteenth time - that's simply not true. They are primarily switching to lefty parties or DK/won't vote (90%), and that suppression inflates the Reform share as a proportion.

Very few numpties voted for Labour to crack down on immigration, or to lower tax. You would have voted Reform if that's what matters to you (and they did).

That’s why I said partly. Reform is drawing support from Tories and Labour. Going down your path of ignoring things like migration, asylum, etc - because our voters don’t care about this - is a sure way of driving further red wall voters, and the young, to Farage

The difference is that Conservative voters are transferring straight to Reform, and in much larger numbers, in a way that Labour voters are not. Reform's existing vote is highly resilient.

It's HYUFD-level manipulation of the numbers, but if you were to put the DKs and Won't Vote back to where they came from, Labour would have a substantial 7 points or so lead, and the Conservatives and Reform are at parity. That's the great source of optimism for Labour.

(FYI I didn't vote Labour)

The Conservatives’ poll ratings were likewise hit by don’t knows/won’t knows in 2022/24.

But, it turned out they knew one thing. They were not voting Conservative.

The absolute number of ex-Labour voters going to reform is not that different to the absolute number of ex-Conservatives.

williamglenn

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

For the umpteenth time - that's simply not true. They are primarily switching to lefty parties or DK/won't vote (90%), and that suppression inflates the Reform share as a proportion.

Very few numpties voted for Labour to crack down on immigration, or to lower tax. You would have voted Reform if that's what matters to you (and they did).

Why did Keir Starmer campaign on lowering immigration and deporting people to Bangladesh then? Are you calling your own voters numpties?

Sean_F

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

If Trump succeeds in deporting large numbers of illegals, Europe will follow suit.

Dura_Ace

Casino_Royale said:

Until the Donald decides to land anyway and do so with a fighter escort.

In which case Colombia could do absolutely nothing about it.

They could just park a few trucks on the runway. Ecuador did it to stop covid laden unauthorised flights landing at Quito.

Leon

Taz said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

In some cases we are seeing left wing parties with a stronger line on immigration too and they are doing quite well.

Yes. The Danish social democrats. But have Labour got the minerals to “bulldoze ghettoes”? I don’t think so

Taz

Foxy said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

I do think that as most people on this board, middle class, privileged and some entitles, don't really know these areas and what these peoples communities or lives are like. They just know they don't like their politics and look down on them. They're oblivious to the dangers to the current order this presents electorally in many areas. Reform are already gaining in the polls.

I do think these communities will judge Labour on this issue, they will also judge them on others, but when they have people dumped into their communities and put up on hotels of course it has an impact and is very visual.

Equally there are many on this board who stereotype all WWC voters as Refuk in waiting, while the reality is that WWC voters are far more diverse in their thinking. Leanderthal certainly represents a strand of their thinking, but so does Rayner.

Well obviously our communities don't all exist as a single entity all thinking the same. They don't need to all turn to Reform, just in sufficient numbers. After all Sir Kier got a landslide majority on 1 in 5 of the adult population voting labour.

I will be very interested to see what happens in the local elections in places like Co Durham.

Taz

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

In some cases we are seeing left wing parties with a stronger line on immigration too and they are doing quite well.

Yes. The Danish social democrats. But have Labour got the minerals to “bulldoze ghettoes”? I don’t think so

Problem labour has is they are under threat on the left too, they wouldn't do anything like that for fear of alienating that strand of their political group.

Labours political coalition could easily unravel, just as the Tories did in 2024. I think Blair is very well aware of it and SKS seems to be listening to him,

Leon

@MattW its also worth telling your relative - and yourself - that the outlook on Alzheimer’s is not as hopeless as it was

### Breakthroughs in Alzheimer’s Research Since 2020
Since 2020, Alzheimer’s research has seen transformative advancements across therapeutics, diagnostics, and risk prevention. Here’s a synthesis of key breakthroughs:

---

#### **1. Disease-Modifying Drug Approvals**
- **Aducanumab (Aduhelm)**: Approved by the FDA in 2021, this anti-amyloid antibody marked the first new Alzheimer’s drug in nearly 20 years. It targets amyloid plaques, though its clinical benefits remain debated .
- **Lecanemab (Leqembi)**: Received full FDA approval in 2023 after Phase 3 trials showed ~27% slowing of cognitive decline in early-stage patients by clearing amyloid protofibrils .
- **Donanemab (Kisunla)**: Approved in July 2024, this antibody reduces amyloid plaques and slows decline by 35% in early-stage patients, with up to 60% improvement in those treated earliest .

---

#### **2. Diagnostic Innovations**
- **Blood Biomarkers**: By 2024, blood tests achieved ~90% accuracy in identifying Alzheimer’s pathology, enabling faster diagnosis and trial enrollment .
- **AI-Driven Detection**: Machine learning now predicts disease progression years before symptoms by analyzing brain scans and protein patterns .
- **ATN Framework**: The amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration biomarker classification (ATN) improved early diagnosis and personalized treatment planning .

And so on. It is quite possible that rapidly advancing tech will cure this disease in a decade - or earlier

🙏

rottenborough

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

If Trump succeeds in deporting large numbers of illegals, Europe will follow suit.

Depends how large the increase in US deficit has to be to actually deliver mass deportations.

Not sure UK or EU bond buyers are in the mood for more mass debt.

Foss

Taz said:

Foxy said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

I do think that as most people on this board, middle class, privileged and some entitles, don't really know these areas and what these peoples communities or lives are like. They just know they don't like their politics and look down on them. They're oblivious to the dangers to the current order this presents electorally in many areas. Reform are already gaining in the polls.

I do think these communities will judge Labour on this issue, they will also judge them on others, but when they have people dumped into their communities and put up on hotels of course it has an impact and is very visual.

Equally there are many on this board who stereotype all WWC voters as Refuk in waiting, while the reality is that WWC voters are far more diverse in their thinking. Leanderthal certainly represents a strand of their thinking, but so does Rayner.

Well obviously our communities don't all exist as a single entity all thinking the same. They don't need to all turn to Reform, just in sufficient numbers. After all Sir Kier got a landslide majority on 1 in 5 of the adult population voting labour.

I will be very interested to see what happens in the local elections in places like Co Durham.

ElectionMaps.UK has a nice interactive chart of local government by-election flow since GE 24. Hopefully they put the time in to do something similar for the May '25 block.

ToryJim

I would expect that the polling at the present is highly unreflective of how voters will behave at the next election. Firstly it’s too close to a COG election so the primary opposition party are not fully committed to the fray, the government because it is relatively new still has the preponderance of journalistic interest. This is ideal turf for a third party to soar higher than their natural operating window.

A number of things are likely to happen that will alter the political landscape. Events will occur that reshape the narrative, either intrinsically or because one, many or fewer of the parties louse up their response. The various parties will by about the midterm of the parliament start to try to frame the next election in favourable terms, the interplay of these various efforts will set the scene. Finally various leaderships will evolve or change, particularly the Conservatives. I’m not sure Kemi is doing as badly as the popular view declares. She still has time to establish a better situation and if not the Tories still have the ability to effect a change.

Reform is the unknown in all this, Farage is a quixotic character at times his behaviour is politically attractive at other times deeply repellent. He’s as likely to say or do something that crashes the Reform poll ratings as something that keeps them buoyant. He is also likely tied to Trump and views of him, at present that gives Reform a bit of a boost but over time it will likely become more ambiguous if not an outright negative.

DavidL

In fairness to the government both Starmer and Cooper seem to be trying hard to increase the number of flights back to where these illegal immigrants came from. There are a lot of easy wins in that area because the previous government seemed to tolerate the worst of all worlds: an immigration system that was under resourced and overwhelmed combined with a failure to enforce the decisions made. The number of failed asylum seekers who would then make fresh applications based on family life, children born here etc was and is absurd.

But, ultimately, we need to accept that a system that gives hundreds of millions around the world the "right" to live here, if they can only get here, is simply not fit for purpose. I don't see a Labour government going down that path unless they get a lot of countries doing the same at the same time.

moonshine

Taz said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

In some cases we are seeing left wing parties with a stronger line on immigration too and they are doing quite well.

There’s a clear Labour model that Starmer should be following but he needs to reach further back in the party’s history. Champion of the working class rather than metropolitan liberals. Pride in the British flag not the rainbow one. Money in people’s pockets. Armed forces on a pedestal with a prioritisation for national defence. And yes, going hard on immigration, to protect the social fabric of the country, lift the burden of creaking infrastructure and services and boost wages for the working class.

I don’t expect he’ll do any of this.

MattW

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

If Trump succeeds in deporting large numbers of illegals, Europe will follow suit.

I think one issue is the crudeness of Trump's policy and his inattention to the legal requirements laid down, and legal rights of those he is targeting.

His literally Trumped-up dragnet will pick up, in violation of US law, all kinds of people entitled to stay, and in his desperation to produce visible results, he will ram it all through anyway.

I posted the other day how they have already been arresting Native Americans, and ignnoring the miltary identity cards of veterans.

When he sets off his goons on full rampage, he'll get (and deserve) serious blowback.

Stuartinromford

Foxy said:

numbertwelve said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

I think Starmer (or those around him) are - belatedly - starting to get it, a bit. The media management has been a little better of late. We also see Rachel’s damascene conversion from chief undertaker of the British economy to Mrs Boosterism. It remains to be seen what the fallout will be from Starmer’s Trump diplomacy but he seems to have handled that live wire ok so far.

We do however have the NI rise coming down the tracks and I’m far from convinced the British economy will turn a corner this year. That will be the big issue.

As well as the NI rise there is also a big jump in pensions coming, and big rise in the minimum wage. Both are going to put money into the high st economy.

There is a logic to all of this- very roughly to discourage low value-added jobs by increasing their cost through both NI and minimum wage. If you can do that, productivity goes up and the demand for foreign workers goes down.

Put like that, I can sort of see why it's tricky to tell the story out loud. It's a gamble and it might not work, but the government won the right to try it for a term.

Leon

moonshine said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

In some cases we are seeing left wing parties with a stronger line on immigration too and they are doing quite well.

There’s a clear Labour model that Starmer should be following but he needs to reach further back in the party’s history. Champion of the working class rather than metropolitan liberals. Pride in the British flag not the rainbow one. Money in people’s pockets. Armed forces on a pedestal with a prioritisation for national defence. And yes, going hard on immigration, to protect the social fabric of the country, lift the burden of creaking infrastructure and services and boost wages for the working class.

I don’t expect he’ll do any of this.

He’s already “pretending” to do much of this. Trouble is everyone can see he’s pretending and in reality he does the opposite

As things stand I expect Labour to collapse in 28-29 - worse than the Tories last year

Scott_xP

MattW said:

When he sets off his goons on full rampage, he'll get (and deserve) serious blowback.

From who?

Nigelb

Theuniondivvie said:

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

I think it very much depends on whether your relative is accepting of the diagnosis or fiercely resistant (I only have experience of the latter). It’s deeply depressing to try and construct memory experiences only to be met with suspicion - ‘Why are you doing this?’

I think every case is different.

The only advice I would give is don't argue with them. Deal with their emotions, not their increasing lack of logic.
Which can be hard for those of us used to arguing about everything.

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

Say what you like about Leon, but some anon acct on the internet he ain't...

Is @Leon actually his real name? If so, a fair point.

moonshine

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

numbertwelve said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

I think Starmer (or those around him) are - belatedly - starting to get it, a bit. The media management has been a little better of late. We also see Rachel’s damascene conversion from chief undertaker of the British economy to Mrs Boosterism. It remains to be seen what the fallout will be from Starmer’s Trump diplomacy but he seems to have handled that live wire ok so far.

We do however have the NI rise coming down the tracks and I’m far from convinced the British economy will turn a corner this year. That will be the big issue.

As well as the NI rise there is also a big jump in pensions coming, and big rise in the minimum wage. Both are going to put money into the high st economy.

There is a logic to all of this- very roughly to discourage low value-added jobs by increasing their cost through both NI and minimum wage. If you can do that, productivity goes up and the demand for foreign workers goes down.

Put like that, I can sort of see why it's tricky to tell the story out loud. It's a gamble and it might not work, but the government won the right to try it for a term.

Or… due to the ongoing fiscal deficit and overly regulated economy, this just leads to higher inflation and yields, and in turn locks in economic malaise. Someone is going to have to come in and apply a Milau chainsaw to state spending, only question is how much low growth and inflation we have to endure first.

Malmesbury

Foxy said:

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

I would make sure that they had a proper work up by a psychiatrist specialising in old age. There are many conditions that mimic alzheimers and they can be treatable. If not then they may well be able to prescribe some of the drugs that improve the early stages, and give an accurate prognosis.

Sad news though if it is confirmed.

In the case of my mother-in-law (now living with us) - in her case, the short term memory seems to be going first. Longer term memories last longer.

Another thing is subsidiary effects - depression is quite common, from what the people on support groups say.

Benpointer

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

Those people are already voting for Farage.

Labour got 33% at the election. According to the polls they are low on 23-28% - and falling. That’s partly because a lot of your voters are switching to reform

Or back to the SNP in Scotland

But do carry on. It’s fun watching a government commit suicide

If there are many more stories like this, which just popped up in my feed, then Labour will certainly start to suffer from it. A family claiming of asylum seekers claiming to be Afghans but probably aren't, hosted in a £575K house at the taxpayers expense. Tried twice before to come here but were rejected but undeterred did. Trial put back to 2026. They will never go back We will just continue to pay taxes to fund this economically inactive foursome.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/four-asylum-seekers-will-cost-the-taxpayer-an-estimated-320-000/ar-AA1xUyJY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cd9c1096ada445b9ac57c2faa081cc39&ei=15

The anger growing around the country is palpable, even from here in Rangoon. It’s story after story after story. Thousands of them

The same dynamic is playing out across Western Europe and it is having the same consequences everywhere - ushering the hard right into power

I do believe Labour now has a sense of the danger. But I don’t believe they have any clue how to address it and all their instincts are to do the opposite

In some cases we are seeing left wing parties with a stronger line on immigration too and they are doing quite well.

There’s a clear Labour model that Starmer should be following but he needs to reach further back in the party’s history. Champion of the working class rather than metropolitan liberals. Pride in the British flag not the rainbow one. Money in people’s pockets. Armed forces on a pedestal with a prioritisation for national defence. And yes, going hard on immigration, to protect the social fabric of the country, lift the burden of creaking infrastructure and services and boost wages for the working class.

I don’t expect he’ll do any of this.

He’s already “pretending” to do much of this. Trouble is everyone can see he’s pretending and in reality he does the opposite

As things stand I expect Labour to collapse in 28-29 - worse than the Tories last year

"As things stand..." is a good get out.

MattW

Foxy said:

MattW said:

Brains Trust:

Having a meal out with visiting family last night, and it turns out that a relation has an Alzheimer's diagnosis at age 60.

Can anyone comment on experience of what happens with this condition, and what I can gently do now to help prepare for the future?

One impression I have is that instantiating memories is important as memory is lost progressively, so things like making sure that there are copies of childhood photo albums, familiar objects from earlier in life, and similar, around, may be beneficial. But also that there are various versions of Alzheimer's, so I made need to ferret out a bit more detail.

I would make sure that they had a proper work up by a psychiatrist specialising in old age. There are many conditions that mimic alzheimers and they can be treatable. If not then they may well be able to prescribe some of the drugs that improve the early stages, and give an accurate prognosis.

Sad news though if it is confirmed.

Has Private Medical Insurance, so doing OK on the treatment, and is at roughly (say) normal-for-PB London suburban level of wealth and public sector pensions before long - so they can afford what needs to be afforded.

I have a couple of conditions, as you all know, but I'm fortunate that mine can be managed well.

WRT @Leon , this particular relative has not listened to me for the last 4 decades (OK I am wrong sometimes) except in rare circumstances, and will not be starting now - so it's about being useful in the background.

Malmesbury

a

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

Say what you like about Leon, but some anon acct on the internet he ain't...

Is @Leon actually his real name? If so, a fair point.

Cough! Cough!

RochdalePioneers

Foxy said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

I do think that as most people on this board, middle class, privileged and some entitles, don't really know these areas and what these peoples communities or lives are like. They just know they don't like their politics and look down on them. They're oblivious to the dangers to the current order this presents electorally in many areas. Reform are already gaining in the polls.

I do think these communities will judge Labour on this issue, they will also judge them on others, but when they have people dumped into their communities and put up on hotels of course it has an impact and is very visual.

Equally there are many on this board who stereotype all WWC voters as Refuk in waiting, while the reality is that WWC voters are far more diverse in their thinking. Leanderthal certainly represents a strand of their thinking, but so does Rayner.

Absolutely - and to an extent there is an obvious overlap between Rayner and Anderson. What the WWC and Red Wall voters want is hope. That they can get a job which pays their bills. That crime will go down and make their community safer. That they can get to see a doctor or a dentist. That their kids have a decent school and aren't in a gang.

If Labour can deliver on those things then they will walk the next election. Their problem is that on some issues they have a long track record of failure, and on other issues they are seen to be sniffy around the issue.

Its a long long time ago that Tony Blair campaigned on Tough on Crime, Tough on the Causes of Crime. For the life of me I don't understand how Labour managed to get themselves lost, where tough on crime is seen as wrong.

TheScreamingEagles

Bring back the death penalty.

The City of London Police (CoLP) have arrested a 29-year-old man after a climate protest group claimed to have “[disrupted] the wifi systems of hundreds of insurance companies across the UK“, which they achieved by cutting key fibre optic cables in London (similar events are also said to have occurred in Leeds, Birmingham and Sheffield).

In a post on Instagram, the relatively new group, calling itself Shut the System, said on Monday that its “activists” were “demanding an immediate end to support for new fossil fuel projects and mandatory transition plans for all clients involved in the fossil fuel industry.”

Some businesses in the affected area(s) are understood to have suffered a significant slowdown in broadband and Ethernet connectivity, which has raised additional questions about the need for greater resilience within those companies. But that’s another story and one that all businesses have to consider, although many of the organisations hit did have an adequate backup in place.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2025/01/police-arrest-after-protestors-cut-vital-fibre-optic-cables-in-uk-cities.html

Mexicanpete

Malmesbury said:

a

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

Say what you like about Leon, but some anon acct on the internet he ain't...

Is @Leon actually his real name? If so, a fair point.

Cough! Cough!

I hate it when autocorrect adds a rogue apostrophe.

Foss

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

numbertwelve said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

There is a definite anti establishment mood in the country right now but many progressives seem deaf to it.

Tony Blair arguably still holds the best electoral mind in the country. Within days of the 2024 election he warned labour leadership that they were vulnerable on the flanks from Reform. But some anon acct on the internet probably knows better.

I think Starmer (or those around him) are - belatedly - starting to get it, a bit. The media management has been a little better of late. We also see Rachel’s damascene conversion from chief undertaker of the British economy to Mrs Boosterism. It remains to be seen what the fallout will be from Starmer’s Trump diplomacy but he seems to have handled that live wire ok so far.

We do however have the NI rise coming down the tracks and I’m far from convinced the British economy will turn a corner this year. That will be the big issue.

As well as the NI rise there is also a big jump in pensions coming, and big rise in the minimum wage. Both are going to put money into the high st economy.

There is a logic to all of this- very roughly to discourage low value-added jobs by increasing their cost through both NI and minimum wage. If you can do that, productivity goes up and the demand for foreign workers goes down.

Put like that, I can sort of see why it's tricky to tell the story out loud. It's a gamble and it might not work, but the government won the right to try it for a term.

Then they need to be more up front about it - swapping Deliveroo drivers for bots, automated warehouses, squeezing hand car washes. Start talking about what they're going to do to try and get Waymo's first European site in the UK (Milton Keynes would work well). There are votes - and hope - in all of that.

Leon

Endless, endless stories. Day after day. Each one shifting thousands of votes to Reform


NewsUK News
CRIME PAYS Violent drug dealer dodged deportation because his daughter might be transgender
The dad of three, granted anonymity by the courts, was convicted of dealing crack and heroin

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/33017503/violent-drug-dealer-dodged-deportation-trans/

Mexicanpete

Leon said:

Endless, endless stories. Day after day. Each one shifting thousands of votes to Reform


NewsUK News
CRIME PAYS Violent drug dealer dodged deportation because his daughter might be transgender
The dad of three, granted anonymity by the courts, was convicted of dealing crack and heroin

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/33017503/violent-drug-dealer-dodged-deportation-trans/

I didn't have you down as a Sun reader after jugs were dropped from page 3.

Benpointer

"...within the next four years." is the killer for this. Unless Labour are ahead, there won't be a GE within the next four years. If Labour are not ahead, May/June 2029 is the next GE date.

Stuartinromford

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

Taz said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

The poll asks “within the next four years”, but Labour don’t need to hold an election for four and a half years. So the probably of Farage becoming PM in the next four years is much lower than in the next five years. Poorly phrased polling!

Fpt



“Number of migrants living in hotels soars under Labour as asylum costs top £5bn

The number of migrants living in hotels has risen by 20 per cent in three months, official data shows”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hotel-asylum-seeker-migrant-cost-b2655306.html

This is where expectation is so important in politics. Migrant hotels and high taxes simply does not matter for Labour's polling in the same way it does for the Conservatives.

Labour will be judged primarily on the NHS. And possibly economic growth given the rhetoric.

You think Labour voters - especially poor and wwc voters - don’t care that we are spending 5, 6, 9 billion a year on housing unwanted foreigners, who all get private health care?

You don’t think they might say Fuck this, I’m voting Farage?

Well, it’s a view. It’s a suicidally complacent view but a view nonetheless

I do think that as most people on this board, middle class, privileged and some entitles, don't really know these areas and what these peoples communities or lives are like. They just know they don't like their politics and look down on them. They're oblivious to the dangers to the current order this presents electorally in many areas. Reform are already gaining in the polls.

I do think these communities will judge Labour on this issue, they will also judge them on others, but when they have people dumped into their communities and put up on hotels of course it has an impact and is very visual.

Equally there are many on this board who stereotype all WWC voters as Refuk in waiting, while the reality is that WWC voters are far more diverse in their thinking. Leanderthal certainly represents a strand of their thinking, but so does Rayner.

Absolutely - and to an extent there is an obvious overlap between Rayner and Anderson. What the WWC and Red Wall voters want is hope. That they can get a job which pays their bills. That crime will go down and make their community safer. That they can get to see a doctor or a dentist. That their kids have a decent school and aren't in a gang.

If Labour can deliver on those things then they will walk the next election. Their problem is that on some issues they have a long track record of failure, and on other issues they are seen to be sniffy around the issue.

Its a long long time ago that Tony Blair campaigned on Tough on Crime, Tough on the Causes of Crime. For the life of me I don't understand how Labour managed to get themselves lost, where tough on crime is seen as wrong.

The third problem is that Labour are still at the stage of opening closets and having skeletons left there by previous governments fall out on them. It's amazing how little object permanence the British right and media are showing.

"Clearing up the other lot's mess, which is even worse than we thought" is a cynical card which Starmer and Reeves have not played well. Doesn't stop it being objectively true.

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bring back the death penalty.

The City of London Police (CoLP) have arrested a 29-year-old man after a climate protest group claimed to have “[disrupted] the wifi systems of hundreds of insurance companies across the UK“, which they achieved by cutting key fibre optic cables in London (similar events are also said to have occurred in Leeds, Birmingham and Sheffield).

In a post on Instagram, the relatively new group, calling itself Shut the System, said on Monday that its “activists” were “demanding an immediate end to support for new fossil fuel projects and mandatory transition plans for all clients involved in the fossil fuel industry.”

Some businesses in the affected area(s) are understood to have suffered a significant slowdown in broadband and Ethernet connectivity, which has raised additional questions about the need for greater resilience within those companies. But that’s another story and one that all businesses have to consider, although many of the organisations hit did have an adequate backup in place.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2025/01/police-arrest-after-protestors-cut-vital-fibre-optic-cables-in-uk-cities.html

Good call! This is why Farage is doomed. Far too woke and squeamish on capital sentences for climate protestors.

kinabalu

Morris_Dancer said:

It's a long time ago now, but a guy I knew online had a father with Alzheimer's. While it moved rapidly, his father never had the anger that some (like my grandpa) developed, and even jokingly blamed the Alzheimer's for not doing chores etc so their relationship didn't suffer at all. While this seems, anecdotally, uncommon, it does at least suggest the irritation/anger aspect isn't universal.

It definitely isn't. My mum (89) has it but at least so far has retained her fundamentally sweet nature.

TheScreamingEagles

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bring back the death penalty.

The City of London Police (CoLP) have arrested a 29-year-old man after a climate protest group claimed to have “[disrupted] the wifi systems of hundreds of insurance companies across the UK“, which they achieved by cutting key fibre optic cables in London (similar events are also said to have occurred in Leeds, Birmingham and Sheffield).

In a post on Instagram, the relatively new group, calling itself Shut the System, said on Monday that its “activists” were “demanding an immediate end to support for new fossil fuel projects and mandatory transition plans for all clients involved in the fossil fuel industry.”

Some businesses in the affected area(s) are understood to have suffered a significant slowdown in broadband and Ethernet connectivity, which has raised additional questions about the need for greater resilience within those companies. But that’s another story and one that all businesses have to consider, although many of the organisations hit did have an adequate backup in place.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2025/01/police-arrest-after-protestors-cut-vital-fibre-optic-cables-in-uk-cities.html

Good call! This is why Farage is doomed, far too woke and squeamish on capital sentences for climate protestors.

It’s economic terrorism.

These traitors are like the Russians trying to cut our cables.

Malmesbury

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bring back the death penalty.

The City of London Police (CoLP) have arrested a 29-year-old man after a climate protest group claimed to have “[disrupted] the wifi systems of hundreds of insurance companies across the UK“, which they achieved by cutting key fibre optic cables in London (similar events are also said to have occurred in Leeds, Birmingham and Sheffield).

In a post on Instagram, the relatively new group, calling itself Shut the System, said on Monday that its “activists” were “demanding an immediate end to support for new fossil fuel projects and mandatory transition plans for all clients involved in the fossil fuel industry.”

Some businesses in the affected area(s) are understood to have suffered a significant slowdown in broadband and Ethernet connectivity, which has raised additional questions about the need for greater resilience within those companies. But that’s another story and one that all businesses have to consider, although many of the organisations hit did have an adequate backup in place.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2025/01/police-arrest-after-protestors-cut-vital-fibre-optic-cables-in-uk-cities.html

"wifi systems"? Ha! Generic Journalism strikes again.

And Starlink sales jump as well.

I know a few companies that are using it as their backup to their backup for internet access in London.

Yes, performance is much lower in built up areas, due to contention. For consumer grade connections.

The thing is that these companies are paying a lot more for connectivity*. Assured performance levels. There is a limit on the number of such connections, but it is an option.

*There is a whole genre of jokes in IT that start with "A manager complained about how much we were paying for the connection - he thought it should cost the same as home broadband. Then...."