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Tipping point? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    HYUFD said:

    Where some farmers are forced to sell up yes will the US agribusinesses that replace them care about the British landscape and managing it well for its long term preservation for future generations and meeting the nation's food supply needs? No they will use it solely to make a profit and if they can't do that anymore will sod off
    If there’s such a threat from US agribusinesses, then presumably we need state intervention to prevent the excesses of capitalism.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Taz said:

    Trump does seem far better prepared and is getting shit done. People may or may not support him but he is doing what he said he would.

    Have a good journey. Looks like being a shit day for travelling.
    What's happening to the price of eggs?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Leon said:

    “The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms”

    https://x.com/presssec/status/1883716584843391025?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They didn’t like the idea of US Military aircraft landing at their airport, and turned them around. The US Mil pilots thought that invading Colombia was probably a bad idea, and went back to the US.

    More likely the Colombians just don’t like Donald Trump, but they’ve quickly agreed to accept civilian flights of their own citizens illegally living in the US. Now they need to find a civvie plane and crew who will operate the flights.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    Leon said:

    It is quite lol but it is also a massive challenge to European governments

    Trump is showing that you can just do this. Just load them on a plane and dump them in foreign countries. America is powerful

    Europe is also powerful. All of Europe is plagued by illegal migrants and asylum seekers, the voters will soon start demanding that we do what Trump is doing. Because we can no longer afford to house the world

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/deportations-by-ice-10-year-high-in-2024-surpassing-trump-era-peak/

    ICE deported more than 271,000 unauthorized immigrants in fiscal year 2024, the highest tally recorded by the agency since fiscal year 2014, when the Obama administration carried out 316,000 deportations. In fiscal year 2019, ICE reported 267,000 deportations, the peak under the Trump administration. Fiscal years start in October and end in September.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806

    Oh get a grip. Lots of people are anxious about money but you’re going into bat for people who have literally millions of pounds worth of assets but a low yield occasionally. Talk about a lack of perspective.
    Nevertheless, it was still a ridiculous ditch for you to die in. You've said (several times) "Why should farmers' assets be treated differently?" and been given several excellent reasons why they should be treated differently. Then you've got yourself into introducing a whole new imaginary subsidy to compensate farmers for this change, which may or may not be fine, but would doubtless cost a vast amount more than the paltry sum Labour will take for this scheme. So there would be less than no point.

    It's the same with this millionaires 'Piss off then' attitude - Labour and their supporters don't accept it when their concept of 'fairness' comes into contact with the real world where people have choices and respond to economic stimuli. You're meant to make policy that accounts for human behaviour and incentivises it, not throws a strop when people aren't grateful at how 'fair' you think you're being.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617

    I was saying that last night, that we should subsidise farm output, not farm land. Then tenant farmers alike also benefit. I am not anti farmer at all. However, apparently I am scum and a disgrace for this position bla bla.

    If the goal is to encourage food production and food security then to me this is the best tool. Otherwise you’re just entrenching the position of people who are objectively in a very privileged position in terms of inheritance, regardless of the economics of farming.
    The issue there aiui is that that was done for a generation after the war, and achieved increased output, but gave us industrialised farming, pesticide pollution, hedge rows (eg) ripped out, and grain deserts in East Anglia.

    We moved on from that when all our birds, insects and wildlife vanished, and our rivers and streams became pollution sewers.

    I'm sure the model needs evolving further, however we need a new synthesis which does not cause the same downside as previously.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,818
    edited January 27
    rcs1000 said:

    To be fair, that's the Whitehouse Twitter feed. I'm sure the Colombian government will be claiming victory too.
    That was retweeted by the Colombian president himself.

    https://x.com/billmelugin_/status/1883719798389141799?s=46
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,472
    Yes, the Colombia nonsense is being played as some huge victory for Trump whereas it’s the nuance between receiving your deported citizens on civilian flights as distinct from military flights.

    It’s analogous to using the RAF to send migrants to Rwanda rather than chartering commercial flights. I imagine the RAF would argue they’d be better defending NATO airspace than sending three or four migrants to the middle of Africa.

    Getting the asylum process under control will be a big win for Labour and that should reduce the numbers in hotels and elsewhere. The bigger question is legal migration and the debate around that which we’ve not really had because of all the nonsense about “stop the boats”.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    ydoethur said:

    Just when you think PB can’t get more bad-tempered, along comes Leon babbling about asylum seekers.

    He’s also lying about the numbers.

    “At the end of September 2024, there were 109,024 individuals in receipt of asylum support, 12% fewer than a year prior.” https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-september-2024/how-many-cases-are-in-the-uk-asylum-system#how-many-asylum-seekers-are-receiving-housing-and-financial-support
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    rcs1000 said:

    To be fair, that's the Whitehouse Twitter feed. I'm sure the Colombian government will be claiming victory too.
    Did Ramesses II or Muwatalli II win the battle of Kadesh? They both claimed victory in their twitter feeds at the time.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,397
    Leon said:

    The true grotesquerie of the farm tax is that it brings in about £520m MAX - if might be less

    In the year 2024 the UK spent £5.4 BILLION on housing and hosting asylum seekers. A number that has quintupled in three years and will only get worse with every boat

    So the tax that is destroying farming brings in less than 10% of what we are spending on unwanted foreigners going in hotels. We are destroying ourselves to feed Albanians buffet breakfasts in pleasant rooms near the M1

    It is pure and absolute madness. It is hardly surprising that young people want a ruthless dictatorship

    60 something sozzled journalists may want a ruthless dictatorship but don't project onto the young your own prejudices.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283

    Oh get a grip. Lots of people are anxious about money but you’re going into bat for people who have literally millions of pounds worth of assets but a low yield occasionally. Talk about a lack of perspective.
    You're an idiot. It's not a realisable asset without making the entire business unviable.

    The very fact you think it is just shows up you to be an ignorant Townie.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Sandpit said:

    Well he’s certainly turned up prepared, and with plenty of people behind him to make sure that stuff actually happens, as opposed to last time around when large numbers of civil servants managed to get in the way of his agenda.

    The scale of the illegal immigration problem is quite something, some journalists just discovered a city of up to 75,000 illegals in the middle of the desert in Texas, that had apparently been built by local builders offering their own finance.
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/inside-colony-ridge-the-fastest-growing-development-in-the-u-s-is-a-magnet-for-illegal-immigrants
    The article you post there does not support the claim you make (“up to 75,000 illegals”).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,165

    Nevertheless, it was still a ridiculous ditch for you to die in. You've said (several times) "Why should farmers' assets be treated differently?" and been given several excellent reasons why they should be treated differently. Then you've got yourself into introducing a whole new imaginary subsidy to compensate farmers for this change, which may or may not be fine, but would doubtless cost a vast amount more than the paltry sum Labour will take for this scheme. So there would be less than no point.

    It's the same with this millionaires 'Piss off then' attitude - Labour and their supporters don't accept it when their concept of 'fairness' comes into contact with the real world where people have choices and respond to economic stimuli. You're meant to make policy that accounts for human behaviour and incentivises it, not throws a strop when people aren't grateful at how 'fair' you think you're being.
    I don’t agree. I agree food security is an issue but I disagree that this subsidy solved the issue now (even before the changes come into play). Therefore my position is logically sound, even if you disagree with it.

    You’re trying your hardest to turn this into an ideological argument but it’s far more basic than that - I am simply refusing to buy into the crocodile tears of people who are quite literally millionaires. Even though it is shit, if their farms go out of business, they are still in a much better position than 90% of the population. That isn’t bitterness, it’s just reality.

    In my view, government is not there to protect the assets of millionaires, but to create an environment where people can BECOME millionaires through work or through investment or business or whatever. That’s the “American dream” and the driver of support for capitalism over the last 200 years.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,165

    You're an idiot. It's not a realisable asset without making the entire business unviable.

    The very fact you think it is just shows up you to be an ignorant Townie.
    I bet you the farmers are still in business and still moaning in 5 years time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Cicero said:

    60 something sozzled journalists may want a ruthless dictatorship but don't project onto the young your own prejudices.
    The data is upthread
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,320
    rcs1000 said:

    To be fair, that's the Whitehouse Twitter feed. I'm sure the Colombian government will be claiming victory too.
    The whole thing would make a cracking West Wing (or several) episode.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136

    I was saying that last night, that we should subsidise farm output, not farm land. Then tenant farmers alike also benefit. I am not anti farmer at all. However, apparently I am scum and a disgrace for this position bla bla.

    If the goal is to encourage food production and food security then to me this is the best tool. Otherwise you’re just entrenching the position of people who are objectively in a very privileged position in terms of inheritance, regardless of the economics of farming.
    Don't let them bully you out of a nuanced position.

    We know that the farming is incredibly difficult, and the business worth little due to those poor returns. If family farms are broken up due to IHT changes, it's because they own the land they farm and the value of it has been grossly inflated by property development and tax dodging.

    Any policy that alters that is going to hurt landowner balance sheets, whether through IHT or through a transaction tax or whatever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283
    Ratters said:

    Personally I'd much rather have a larger number approved and becoming functioning members of society than wasting billions storing them in hotels and disrupting a part of the relevant local communities.

    I also think it'd be politically more popular than asylum hotels if combined with reduced migration elsewhere. 35-50k is peanuts in that context.

    But if you disagree, a more coherent approach than Rwanda etc would be to tighten the eligibility criteria for asylum. Combined with quicker processing.
    This is very liberal view of immigration that views it as a "process" based issue and isn't concerned with the numbers at all.

    I would agree with tightening the eligibility criteria for asylum. I think that's essential.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283
    Dura_Ace said:

    Probably none, but Colombia can certainly refuse permission to enter their airspace or to land to any aircraft they like.

    Until the Donald decides to land anyway and do so with a fighter escort.

    In which case Colombia could do absolutely nothing about it.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 663
    Don't you get any sleep? 1:00 am / 4:00 am / 7:00 am and then all of yesterday.

    Is there more than one of you?




  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Leon said:

    It is quite lol but it is also a massive challenge to European governments

    Trump is showing that you can just do this. Just load them on a plane and dump them in foreign countries. America is powerful

    Europe is also powerful. All of Europe is plagued by illegal migrants and asylum seekers, the voters will soon start demanding that we do what Trump is doing. Because we can no longer afford to house the world
    You do realise that, for now, they are deporting no more than Biden was ?

    The victory, to accept Trump's description, is largely performative. How consequential it turns out remains to be seen.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    Until the Donald decides to land anyway and do so with a fighter escort.

    In which case Colombia could do absolutely nothing about it.
    You do recognise, I hope, that such a scenario would be disastrous for global stability, if the US military just barged into other countries? We’ve spent three quarters of a century building up an international order where countries (most of the time) respect each others’ international borders.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 78
    Up thread Leon argued that Trump being a success would inprove Le Pen's chance of making the French presidency. more like
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 78
    This understates Le Pen's position: she is currently clear favourite to be the next French President.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 78
    And although there has been much comment on here about Reform as an existential threat to the Tories, the example of France suggests Reform could represent an existential threat to Labour, as well.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 78
    Le Pen's Rassemblement has replaced both Socialists and Communists as the dominant choice of working class voters.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 78
    Le Pen hasbeen canny enough to move away from free market positions on the economy, towards a strong defence of state spending and looking after the poorer off.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    ..

This discussion has been closed.