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What’s this polling going to look like by the end of Trump’s second term? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    We used to grab lunch with the kids at the Sainsburys Cafe. It was a nice treat for the kids, the food was relatively nutritious and inexpensive, and we could combine it with the weekly shop so it was convenient too. I was sad when they changed it to a Starbucks.
    Marks and Sparks cafe is really decent. Always has a good selection of food and its cheeses scones are nice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    viewcode said:

    Inevitably, "Minority Report"...
    The pre-cogs. That's what we're missing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    Taz said:

    Problem is for many with workplace DC pots they just let the pension company put them onto the lifestyle fund, or whatever shite they call it and they take their chances with it. May work for some but not for all and there have been people lose out because of it.
    Are those funds overweight UK ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    It always amazes me why anyone would want to eat in a supermarket
    Have you never opened something and nibbled it in the checkout queue?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    No doubt Reeves will be blamed even though at least some of these jobs are, it seems, at the in-shop cafes which are just not used enough (according to Telegraph blog).
    Hold on, the same Sainsburys as this ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crm7wj3m28po#:~:text=Sainsbury's has said it will raise hourly pay,help manage a particularly tough cost inflation environment".

    Reeves certainly deserves the blame for some of the freeze in hiring and job losses out there but in this case, not sure of that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    The substance is correct though
    A Leon post? I doubt it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    kinabalu said:

    Have you never opened something and nibbled it in the checkout queue?
    Sometimes see some tracksuited mummy giving their little Tiffany or Tyler-Kade something to munch on from the shop while going round doing the shopping usually to present the empty wrapper at checkout. "Sorry sis, little un was ungry, innit"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,875
    edited January 23
    kinabalu said:

    A Leon post? I doubt it.
    Reeves has intimated the 3rd Heathrow runway plus relaxation of non doms at Davos today

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/23/rachel-reeves-non-dom-tax-rule-uk-davos?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328

    I think some are missing the politics of this.

    Reform is leading in the polls, and Nigel Farage is favourite to be next PM. Labour have dozens and dozens of vulnerable seats. Starmer has very little political room for manoeuvre with the EU.

    If they're paying attention they might not want to invest too much in a CU/SM lite deal that'll be comprehensively picked apart again in less than 4 years by someone who makes Boris look like Ted Heath in comparison.

    If the EU are paying attention, they should lay Farage for next PM!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    algarkirk said:

    The worst of all possible worlds is to say/do something totally out of place like 'Double verification for online knife delivery will be introduced in new tough legislation'. This was the utterly unsuitable Yvette Cooper response.
    True. It's hard to do nothing though. You get no credit for it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,904

    A good question. In the short term, I expect US stocks to do well, but longer term, I am very worried about what trade wars do to them US economy (although of course that will hit the EU too), and I am worried about the deterioration of the rule of law in the US. So, ultimately, I’d rather have my pension invested in the EU.
    The pension fund that I am a trustee of has been overweight in US stocks for the last decade, specifically the large oligarchy type firms such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Mastercard. It has been an extremely successful strategy giving us exceptional returns. Past performance no guarantee of future etc but with Trump in the Whitehouse and Vance in the belfry I think any risk of antitrust provisions against these behemoths is limited and they will continue to do very well as a class. Really can't see anything in Europe that is even close.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328

    Fine words. Are you following through with this action?
    I have an appointment with my financial adviser booked, although my pension is through my employer. My pension scheme is heavily invested in Heathrow and Thames Water, so…
  • kinabalu said:

    Have you never opened something and nibbled it in the checkout queue?
    Actually no, but then we have a weekly delivery so do not spend much time in store and always use self check outs
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Pulpstar said:

    Are those funds overweight UK ?
    I wouldn't know. Many different funds many different fund providers. My workplace pension isn't. But I choose the funds personally and when I leave next month I will wait for the final payment to go in then move it to my HL SIPP.

    However I was minded of several stories recently in the press in a similar vein to these.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/i-was-told-my-pension-was-safe-then-i-lost-300-000/ar-AA1uVlBl?ocid=BingNewsVerp

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/pensions-and-retirement/why-higher-borrowing-costs-pension-savings-3471513
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    I have an appointment with my financial adviser booked, although my pension is through my employer. My pension scheme is heavily invested in Heathrow and Thames Water, so…
    Universities scheme, USS, is heavily invested in Thames Water.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Taz said:

    So am I, the news is obsessed with the issue. It's a reality but tedious to continually hear about it. Even the weather girl on GMB bangs on about it when all I want to hear about is what the weather is going to be.
    No you don't really want climate pontificating on the GMB weather bulletin.

    Still, so long as it doesn't reference Donald Trump I'm happy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    edited January 23
    kinabalu said:

    True. It's hard to do nothing though. You get no credit for it.
    Yet doing nothing is better than doing something stupid.

    Just announce a review and kick it into the long grass while trying to come up with something effective that addresses the institutional failings here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    The only good thing about Davos is that when Davos ends I always think, that’s it, that’s the worst of the winter over, we’re probably gonna make it

    It often coincides, as this year, with my getting my tax bill and realizing OK so I’m not bankrupt, it could be worse (it could be better, but still)

    It’s a moment of relief, the cessation of pain, the light at the end, not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning

    it’s like when the tooth cleaner finally stops the horrible scraping and moves on to the gentler but still painful whizzy thing
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    kinabalu said:

    No you don't really want climate pontificating on the GMB weather bulletin.

    Still, so long as it doesn't reference Donald Trump I'm happy.
    The politics segment is obsessed with Trump currently. I'd just listen to Spotify but my wife likes Richard Madeley and Ed Balls.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    algarkirk said:

    To delve into this difficulty a bit is to dip into deep waters. The psychiatry world has diagnosable diseases, generally treatable, and a large class of untreatable conditions which people label as 'psychopathic' 'sociopathic' 'narcissist', 'borderline personality disorder', 'evil' and so on.

    In our society you can lock people up for two big reasons: they have committed a crime, or they are sectionable under mental health legislation. For this you have to be crazy in a way psychiatry recognises. The untreatable stuff fills our prisons and forms a large nuisance class in many communities.

    In normal language our prisons are full of people who are mad, as well as being bad. The overlap is gigantic.
    If you have a child who is going a bit loopy, there is CAMS etc. But if the child isn't actually a danger to themselves or others *right* now, the waiting list is forever.

    I know of people who registered their child as diagnosed with ADHD at 15 - and not received any help by the time the child is 18....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    By what if the culprits are Proper People? What about their Divine Right(s)?
    Being a top bod is not a defence against criminal prosecution in my book. It undermines the law if the rich and powerful are exempt from it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    edited January 23
    DavidL said:

    The pension fund that I am a trustee of has been overweight in US stocks for the last decade, specifically the large oligarchy type firms such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Mastercard. It has been an extremely successful strategy giving us exceptional returns. Past performance no guarantee of future etc but with Trump in the Whitehouse and Vance in the belfry I think any risk of antitrust provisions against these behemoths is limited and they will continue to do very well as a class. Really can't see anything in Europe that is even close.
    I got a ten percent return investing in major tech stocks, over less than 10 months. TEN PERCENT

    I liquidated it a few weeks ago, to be ready for my tax bill. I will now reinvest

    I said at the time I invested this money, “I just don’t see how these companies fail, they are too big to go bust, the ML boom is not over, it is probably just beginning”. Some on here told me I was mad, big bust coming etc
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,332
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1882405410130276460

    @astor_charlie
    Footage of Axel Rudakubana in the taxi arriving was played to the court.

    He was heard asking the driver where 34a Hart Street was.

    The driver points in the direction of the building and then asks if Rudakubana is paying with cash or card.


    So he did know what he was going to attack when he got in the taxi. It wasn't a case of the girls being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It was very clearly an attack against women and girls. That is terrorism.

    He stabbed one of the girls 122 times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Taz said:

    Hold on, the same Sainsburys as this ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crm7wj3m28po#:~:text=Sainsbury's has said it will raise hourly pay,help manage a particularly tough cost inflation environment".

    Reeves certainly deserves the blame for some of the freeze in hiring and job losses out there but in this case, not sure of that.
    It's a fairly common thing, to use a small wage hike vs the job losses to keep remaining staff morale up.

    Note that the new rate Sainsburys is using is a £12.60 an hour. The new minimum wage, that is coming in this year, is £12.21

    5% rise means that they were previously paying £11.62 - when the minimum wage was £11.44

    So much of the rise is about paying above minimum wage.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    Foss said:

    He stabbed one of the girls 122 times.
    Utterly horrific.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,904
    Leon said:

    I got a ten percent return investing in major tech stocks, over 11 months. TEN PERCENT

    I liquidated it a few weeks ago, to be ready for my tax bill. I will now reinvest

    I said at the time I invested this money, “I just don’t see how these companies fail, they are too big to go bust, the ML boom is not over, it is probably just beginning”. Some on here told me I was mad, big bust coming etc
    These companies have grossly abused their market dominance and financial strength to buy out and destroy possible competitors. The long term consequences of this are not actually optimal but it is crazy not to be along for the ride, especially given the current political climate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1882405410130276460

    @astor_charlie
    Footage of Axel Rudakubana in the taxi arriving was played to the court.

    He was heard asking the driver where 34a Hart Street was.

    The driver points in the direction of the building and then asks if Rudakubana is paying with cash or card.


    So he did know what he was going to attack when he got in the taxi. It wasn't a case of the girls being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It was very clearly an attack against women and girls. That is terrorism.

    And white women and girls to boot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    Reeves has intimated the 3rd Heathrow runway plus relaxation of non doms at Davos today

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/23/rachel-reeves-non-dom-tax-rule-uk-davos?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    She's offering them a massage to make up for loss of tax breaks?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Foss said:

    He stabbed one of the girls 122 times.
    Bastard.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Foss said:

    He stabbed one of the girls 122 times.
    Terrorism is simply deathly violence in pursuit of a political motive. It’s unrelated to how many times someone is stabbed, or whether a killer takes a taxi or not.

    The failure was not to sufficiently recognise Rudakubana as a terrorist, but rather to sufficiently recognise him as bent on homicidal intent.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Taz said:

    The politics segment is obsessed with Trump currently. I'd just listen to Spotify but my wife likes Richard Madeley and Ed Balls.
    Oh. Perhaps some counselling?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    A lot of gibberish on the single market propagated on here by the usual suspects, starting with @DavidL.

    Like the Bourbons, they have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    edited January 23

    And white women and girls to boot.
    Given his obsession with ethnic cleansing and genocide, you might be right about race possibly being a factor too.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 76
    Cookie said:

    Yes, this is what I've been thinking.
    Actually, all this stuff was part of their original pitch. And then they got in and had six months of madness for no readily apparent reason during which absolutely every decision they made was wrong and ludicrous and baffling (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
    And now they're being forced to compromise with reality. Perhaps it will turn out that they do do the things that need doing. Perhaps it will turn out that they're actually moderately competent at it.
    Put it another way, you both over-reacted and totally wrote off Labour based on scant data.

    They have made SOME bad early decisions, but that doesn't determine what comes next.

    Worth noting that Labour descended from Peak Transactivism prior to the election: probably because it's a potential serious vote loser.


    Labour began rowing back from
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    edited January 23
    kinabalu said:

    Oh. Perhaps some counselling?
    Good idea. Although Weller is a twat he knocks out a good tune.

    https://youtu.be/1CAzwewVjZ0
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,146
    Taz said:

    Marks and Sparks cafe is really decent. Always has a good selection of food and its cheeses scones are nice.
    The cafe at my local Morrisons is always busy. One reason is they offer kids-meal free if with an adult.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    DavidL said:

    These companies have grossly abused their market dominance and financial strength to buy out and destroy possible competitors. The long term consequences of this are not actually optimal but it is crazy not to be along for the ride, especially given the current political climate.
    Yeah. Investing right now is all about investing in technology especially robotics and you-know-what

    Who is gonna benefit from this? It’s very hard to call the small guys. To see an OpenAI emerging or an Anthropic

    But the big seven are all SO big they’d have to calamitously fuck up - or be broken up - not to benefit from a tech revolution when they dominate tech and simply buy their smaller rivals

    As you say Trump is not gonna get tough on them. They were all at his inauguration and they’re all donating and they are all genuflecting and enabling his political goals (eg meta allowing freer speech and abandoning lefty bias). Their power brings more power to the USA and to Trump

    Nothing is a sure thing but for the next four years they are close to a sure thing
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    slade said:

    The cafe at my local Morrisons is always busy. One reason is they offer kids-meal free if with an adult.
    A few of the Supermarkets are very good like that, especially during the summer holidays. There's usually a list on the local facebook groups of them and what they offer.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,975
    tlg86 said:

    Given his obsession with ethnic cleansing and genocide, you might be right about race possibly being a factor too.
    I mean this with sincerity, what difference does the terrorism label actually make? He is never going to be released from prison regardless. And rightly so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    Perhaps instead of prison, 500000 community service hours clearly named & visible in Southport would be more appropriate ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1882405410130276460

    @astor_charlie
    Footage of Axel Rudakubana in the taxi arriving was played to the court.

    He was heard asking the driver where 34a Hart Street was.

    The driver points in the direction of the building and then asks if Rudakubana is paying with cash or card.


    So he did know what he was going to attack when he got in the taxi. It wasn't a case of the girls being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It was very clearly an attack against women and girls. That is terrorism.

    Sorry, how do you mean? Female targets doesn't in itself mean terrorism.

    (Not saying it isn't in this case btw given the other factors)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    Foss said:

    He stabbed one of the girls 122 times.
    God it just gets worse, doesn't it... :(
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1882405410130276460

    @astor_charlie
    Footage of Axel Rudakubana in the taxi arriving was played to the court.

    He was heard asking the driver where 34a Hart Street was.

    The driver points in the direction of the building and then asks if Rudakubana is paying with cash or card.


    So he did know what he was going to attack when he got in the taxi. It wasn't a case of the girls being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It was very clearly an attack against women and girls. That is terrorism.

    By that logic, wouldn't Wayne Couzens be defined as a terrorist as well? Presumably so.
    I think we'd have to broaden the definition of terrorism quite a bit to do that.
    Personally, I'd stick with murdering fuckers for both Rudakubana and Couzens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, how do you mean? Female targets doesn't in itself mean terrorism.

    (Not saying it isn't in this case btw given the other factors)
    It was a racially-motivated hate crime.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    CJohn said:

    Put it another way, you both over-reacted and totally wrote off Labour based on scant data.

    They have made SOME bad early decisions, but that doesn't determine what comes next.

    Worth noting that Labour descended from Peak Transactivism prior to the election: probably because it's a potential serious vote loser.


    Labour began rowing back from
    Sorry, I think we lost you there - did you go into a tunnel? Interested to hear where that was going.

    Well I'd say six months of consistent bad decisions isn't 'scant'.
    But if they are rowing back to the real world, good. They've still got four and a half years to go.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, how do you mean? Female targets doesn't in itself mean terrorism.

    (Not saying it isn't in this case btw given the other factors)

    Have we done this?

    "ICC prosecutor seeks arrest of Taliban leaders over persecution of women"

    "The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor on Thursday said he was seeking arrest warrants against senior Taliban leaders in Afghanistan over the persecution of women, a crime against humanity.

    "Karim Khan said there were reasonable grounds to suspect that Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and chief justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani "bear criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of persecution on gender grounds".

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/icc-prosecutor-seeks-arrest-taliban-123449688.html
  • and you thought the Trump memecoins were dumb ...



    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1882427958801109262
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    kenObi said:

    My personal view is that small scale reactors will have the same issues as large scale ones (hello NuScale !).

    While solar panel costs continue to fall , nuclear costs only ever go one way - and then some, regardless of size or technology.

    We might as well bite the bullet and spunk £20 billion on some massive inter-connectors & storage from Morocco.
    On that subject, Prysmian have cancelled their proposed cable factory in the US which was due to supply the offshore wind industry. Perhaps if we are quick we might get it instead.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410
    Eabhal said:

    I think it's important to seperate oil and gas.

    Gas: New licences would have an immaterial impact on North Sea production, which will fall precipitously over the next 10 years regardless of your policy. We will continue to import a very large proportion from friendly countries like Norway.

    Oil: The inverse. New licenses would have a material impact on the amount extracted (though it will still fall off like gas) , but the UK has roughly balanced imports/exports (£30 billion each way).

    I think we could have an interesting debate about oil, particularly given it's non-energy uses. But gas is a fantasy, and therefore electricity generation and heating is going to have to be primarily renewables/heat pumps.
    I don’t find you remotely credible on this issue.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    It was a racially-motivated hate crime.
    Which wouldn't be mutually exclusive from terrorism. But like Gallowgate I think the precise label for it is a deeply secondary matter. It's horrible beyond words. And so soon after the last such one too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Well, you don't expect people from Ilford to go South of the River, do you?
    Very many moons ago, when I'd pop down from Uni to visit friends in north London I'd ask "what's X up to these days?" Awkward pause, "Oh, they moved south of the river" as if the waters had closed over their heads as they did so....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482

    By that logic, wouldn't Wayne Couzens be defined as a terrorist as well? Presumably so.
    I think we'd have to broaden the definition of terrorism quite a bit to do that.
    Personally, I'd stick with murdering fuckers for both Rudakubana and Couzens.
    Couzens was sexually motivated. Rudakubana was motivated by a hate of people and, I'd suggest, specifically women and girls.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    edited January 23

    It was a racially-motivated hate crime.
    That doesn't make it terrorism, which needs some kind of political or ideological angle - essentially you need to be able to say "he's trying to make the government do [blank]". I don't see what fills the blank here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    I don’t find you remotely credible on this issue.
    If the north sea is going to run out of oil and gas then private firms will move away from extraction ex gov't intervention anyway.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    Taz said:

    Good idea. Although Weller is a twat he knocks out a good tune.

    https://youtu.be/1CAzwewVjZ0
    I see your "Long Hot Summer" and I raise you "Everything has a price to pay". I'm not necessarily a fan of his but that is a really good tune.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDoELsVX3ks (clean version)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBoa_jzIALA (title sequence to the 1997 film "Face", which only I have seen apparently)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    tlg86 said:

    Couzens was sexually motivated. Rudakubana was motivated by a hate of people and, I'd suggest, specifically women and girls.
    Couzens also hated women.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, how do you mean? Female targets doesn't in itself mean terrorism.

    (Not saying it isn't in this case btw given the other factors)
    It does if they were targeted for being female. I think it's quite likely that was the case.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921


    Have we done this?

    "ICC prosecutor seeks arrest of Taliban leaders over persecution of women"

    "The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor on Thursday said he was seeking arrest warrants against senior Taliban leaders in Afghanistan over the persecution of women, a crime against humanity.

    "Karim Khan said there were reasonable grounds to suspect that Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and chief justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani "bear criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of persecution on gender grounds".

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/icc-prosecutor-seeks-arrest-taliban-123449688.html
    Good for him. Let's hope it goes somewhere.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    It was a racially-motivated hate crime.
    The reports from the sentencing hearing are truly grim.

    I doubt he'll last long in prison.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    edited January 23
    Interesting thing about Musk's new DOGE position.
    It's gone well beyond "cost cutting".

    The executive order puts him in charge of US government software, and gives him unfettered access to all unclassified US government information.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    kinabalu said:

    Couzens also hated women.
    Still managed to marry one (not an incel, I mean). But fine if you want to call him a terrorist too.
  • tlg86 said:

    It does if they were targeted for being female. I think it's quite likely that was the case.
    A hate crime rather than terrorism, I'd have thought.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517
    Guido reports Tory theory that Starmer may join this to help with rules of origin:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Mediterranean_free_trade_area

    New one on me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The reports from the sentencing hearing are truly grim.

    I doubt he'll last long in prison.
    He’s looking at several decades of solitary confinement, and will probably never get out in reality. Something like 20 year minimums, to be served consecutively, he’ll be 78 before he’s eligible for parole.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    tlg86 said:

    It does if they were targeted for being female. I think it's quite likely that was the case.
    Jack the Ripper wasn't a terrorist though.

    Are you seeking a distinction between different types of misogyny?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    The reports from the sentencing hearing are truly grim.

    I doubt he'll last long in prison.
    Will he be in prison or some kind of secure unit ?

    His life expectancy is prison would be very short.

    I see Sara Sharif's father has already had some prison justice meted out. I expect it is only a matter of time,
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,528
    Taz said:

    Universities scheme, USS, is heavily invested in Thames Water.
    Bonds on the USS books are supposed to be valued at either current market value (if tradable) or based on a DCA analysis of the company in question if not. Either way they will have written off these credit instruments at this point. Anything they get back is gravy.

    If they bought shares then those will be valued at current market value - i.e. sod all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480


    Have we done this?

    "ICC prosecutor seeks arrest of Taliban leaders over persecution of women"

    "The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor on Thursday said he was seeking arrest warrants against senior Taliban leaders in Afghanistan over the persecution of women, a crime against humanity.

    "Karim Khan said there were reasonable grounds to suspect that Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and chief justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani "bear criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of persecution on gender grounds".

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/icc-prosecutor-seeks-arrest-taliban-123449688.html
    Well if the US military couldn't keep the Taliban from controlling Afghanistan I highly doubt they are going to be much concerned about an ICC warrant
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    edited January 23

    Very many moons ago, when I'd pop down from Uni to visit friends in north London I'd ask "what's X up to these days?" Awkward pause, "Oh, they moved south of the river" as if the waters had closed over their heads as they did so....
    If you’ve not spent time South of the river though, you’ve missed the delights of Sainsbury’s cafe in New Cross Gate as articulated by @OnlyLivingBoy

    Not only that but there’s a B&M bargains there now, and a reasonably priced petrol station.

    As Samuel Johnson memorably wrote, “a man who is tired of Sainsbury’s is tired of life; for there is in Sainsbury’s all that life can afford. Unlike Aldi which has a limited selection.”
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    kinabalu said:

    Jack the Ripper wasn't a terrorist though.

    Are you seeking a distinction between different types of misogyny?
    Nature of the crime. If he'd set of a bomb, that would have ***automatically*** made it terrorism.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    carnforth said:

    Guido reports Tory theory that Starmer may join this to help with rules of origin:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Mediterranean_free_trade_area

    New one on me.

    The big question there is how does it interact with the CP-TPP agreement?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Plus every other OECD nation as they also signed up to the minimum corporation tax
  • Terrorism is simply deathly violence in pursuit of a political motive. It’s unrelated to how many times someone is stabbed, or whether a killer takes a taxi or not.

    The failure was not to sufficiently recognise Rudakubana as a terrorist, but rather to sufficiently recognise him as bent on homicidal intent.
    A lifelong friend and I were discussing someone we were at school with 38 years ago. At the time we and all sane fellow pupils just avoided him. I said I thought we had just been naive and that he was an over compensating homosexual, the way that whenever you went to ***** he was always hanging around the smelliest public toilets. My friend thought he should have been sectioned and sent straight to Broadmoor. The fact is he hasn't murdered anyone in the last 38 years, or if he has then it wasn't anyone important enough for it to be mentioned in the Wessy Gessy. He is the only person I have ever met who seemed genuinely dangerous. How did he land at a harmless school like *** ? We believed he had been transferred to our school as a Boarding School after some attempted murder in some other school. No doubt that was bullshit but I relate it here because there was no psychiatry stuff and fortunately he hasn't killed anyone. Made attending school a misery for some fellow pupils certainly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited January 23
    Leon said:

    Yeah. Investing right now is all about investing in technology especially robotics and you-know-what

    Who is gonna benefit from this? It’s very hard to call the small guys. To see an OpenAI emerging or an Anthropic

    But the big seven are all SO big they’d have to calamitously fuck up - or be broken up - not to benefit from a tech revolution when they dominate tech and simply buy their smaller rivals

    As you say Trump is not gonna get tough on them. They were all at his inauguration and they’re all donating and they are all genuflecting and enabling his political goals (eg meta allowing freer speech and abandoning lefty bias). Their power brings more power to the USA and to Trump

    Nothing is a sure thing but for the next four years they are close to a sure thing
    For now, if the Democrats take Congress back in 2026 and the Presidency back in 2028 though they will have noticed the Tech giants leaders kissing Trump's ring and will get tough with them
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    edited January 23
    tlg86 said:

    Still managed to marry one (not an incel, I mean). But fine if you want to call him a terrorist too.
    Ok. Although I'm generally happier calling terrorists murderers than murderers terrorists. The "terrorism" label imbues a kind of gravitas that l don't feel is merited much of the time.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    edited January 23
    ****
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    HYUFD said:

    Plus every other OECD nation as they also signed up to the minimum corporation tax
    The beef is only over the UTPR. The Republicans have been rumbling about it for years. Some sort of fudge is likely.

    See my lengthy post on this yesterday.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517
    edited January 23
    Sandpit said:

    The big question there is how does it interact with the CP-TPP agreement?
    Also, why did no one bring it up during the original negotiations? Or maybe they did.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    edited January 23
    Pulpstar said:

    If the north sea is going to run out of oil and gas then private firms will move away from extraction ex gov't intervention anyway.
    And they are doing.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/9002/ss_and_dd_charts_feb_2023_v2.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjd64L_hYyLAxXCX0EAHSvzBLYQFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0x1wSHjeK9f83sXA3qFZEU
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Sandpit said:

    He’s looking at several decades of solitary confinement, and will probably never get out in reality. Something like 20 year minimums, to be served consecutively, he’ll be 78 before he’s eligible for parole.
    Sandpit said:

    He’s looking at several decades of solitary confinement, and will probably never get out in reality. Something like 20 year minimums, to be served consecutively, he’ll be 78 before he’s eligible for parole.
    He seems like a prime candidate for Assisted Dying

    Would save us all a fuckton of money. “Hey axel, your life is going to be endless misery from now on, with the occasional prospect of a hideous death in the showers. We can offer these dreamy pills. Think about it”

    In fact we should offer it to all of these grotesque monsters mouldering away in prison
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    tlg86 said:

    Nature of the crime. If he'd set of a bomb, that would have ***automatically*** made it terrorism.
    Bomb = Terrorism?

    Not sure that's the case. A strong correlation, though.
  • kinabalu said:

    Ok. Although I'm generally happier calling terrorists murderers than murderers terrorists. The "terrorism" label imbues a kind of gravitas that l don't feel is merited much of the time.
    That is a bit like the woman on the comedy sketch show who insisted her husband wasn't murdered, he was assassinated. He was unalived, end of, the distinction is no distinction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    carnforth said:

    Guido reports Tory theory that Starmer may join this to help with rules of origin:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Mediterranean_free_trade_area

    New one on me.

    It's not a Guido/Tory theory - the EU referred to it yesterday as an option they were happy to consider (reported on the BBC this morning).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940

    It was a racially-motivated hate crime.
    I can't see that in any of the reporting. Could you send us a link?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thing about Musk's new DOGE position.
    It's gone well beyond "cost cutting".

    The executive order puts him in charge of US government software, and gives him unfettered access to all unclassified US government information.

    There must be a suspicion he could use his position to further his own interests rather than those of the American people. Although I guess that's bang in the spirit of things now.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    tlg86 said:

    Nature of the crime. If he'd set of a bomb, that would have ***automatically*** made it terrorism.
    How come the people blowing up ULEZ cameras haven't been charged with that then?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    kinabalu said:

    There must be a suspicion he could use his position to further his own interests rather than those of the American people. Although I guess that's bang in the spirit of things now.
    I think your spellchecker somehow autocorrected "presumption" to "suspicion".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited January 23
    HYUFD said:

    For now, if the Democrats take Congress back in 2026 and the Presidency back in 2028 though they will have noticed the Tech giants leaders kissing Trump's ring and will get tough with them
    Watching Zuck, Bezos, and yesterday Jamie Dimon try and suck up to Trump after the election has been rather amusing.

    I suspect that at least one of those three is going to end up being totally screwed by the government in the next four years.

    What’s surprising is that a donation of $1m to the “inaugural fund” is seemingly enough to get a pair of tickets to the inauguration itself. Although Bezos bought a +1 who forgot to get dressed for the occasion.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Leon said:

    Yeah. Investing right now is all about investing in technology especially robotics and you-know-what

    Who is gonna benefit from this? It’s very hard to call the small guys. To see an OpenAI emerging or an Anthropic

    But the big seven are all SO big they’d have to calamitously fuck up - or be broken up - not to benefit from a tech revolution when they dominate tech and simply buy their smaller rivals

    As you say Trump is not gonna get tough on them. They were all at his inauguration and they’re all donating and they are all genuflecting and enabling his political goals (eg meta allowing freer speech and abandoning lefty bias). Their power brings more power to the USA and to Trump

    Nothing is a sure thing but for the next four years they are close to a sure thing

    Investing in Tesla is a bet on Musk, not on the company's actual performance. The other six have long track records of financial delivery. But they need to be able to sell freely in markets outside the US in order to carry on growing. What looks invulnerable now can very quickly look quite precarious. A four year continuation of a bull market that has already been running for quite a while is a bold call.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited January 23
    Leon said:

    He seems like a prime candidate for Assisted Dying

    Would save us all a fuckton of money. “Hey axel, your life is going to be endless misery from now on, with the occasional prospect of a hideous death in the showers. We can offer these dreamy pills. Think about it”

    In fact we should offer it to all of these grotesque monsters mouldering away in prison
    In some ways that would be the easy way out, assuming he is sentenced to a long prison term and an inevitable life sentence, even if not a whole life order, he should serve in full the sentence the court gives.

    It does seem though he was on the spectrum, as indeed is Musk, it is a very broad spectrum in terms of what those with autism end up doing. One a convicted terrorist murderer, the other the richest man on earth. Internet companies also need to take more action to remove illegal content from their websites so it doesn't fall into the wrong hands as in this case
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Eabhal said:

    I can't see that in any of the reporting. Could you send us a link?
    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881997476108116250

    At school, Rudakubana was known to talk of "Britain needing a genocide like Rwanda" and, at a football match in which he played around the age of 15, he declared the need for a "white genocide".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    HYUFD said:

    In some ways that would be the easy way out, assuming he is sentenced to a long prison term and an inevitable life sentence, even if not a whole life order, he should serve in full the sentence the court gives
    If he killed himself then we save zillions and we get the benefit of a quasi death penalty without the moral quandary. Win win

    We should offer it, forcefully, to anyone convicted of murder facing a whole life tariff. Take the pills, bye bye
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    Eabhal said:

    How come the people blowing up ULEZ cameras haven't been charged with that then?
    Not targeting people?
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245
    MaxPB said:

    I think they might finally have realised if they don't grow the economy Labour will face an extinction level election in 2029, under 50 seats bad.

    The next big step is to shit can Ed Miliband and get someone who will build a proper energy generation network immediately and rip up the planning rules on power generation. Bung Rolls Royce £5bn to get the first 2 SMRs built while we're at it.
    What evidence do you have that SMR's can be built within budget ?

    Nuclear energy just seems to suffer from magical thinking ever since it was too cheap to meter.

    The security measures & costs will remain unchanged. The civils won't change per MW of capacity.

    The ONLY possible way they could become cheap is if we got huge economies of scale if they were manufactured in significant numbers.
    However historically the learning curve hasn't worked everywhere for nuclear - some would argue its been negative in USA and UK over last 30 years, but thats as much safety post Chernobyl

    South Korea is far better - but how many new stations they open is a bit in the balance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    That is a bit like the woman on the comedy sketch show who insisted her husband wasn't murdered, he was assassinated. He was unalived, end of, the distinction is no distinction.
    Yes it's nice to have all these words but you won't go far wrong with murder imo. That's the crime at the end of the day. Murder. Sentence to reflect its impact and degree of foulness.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    Investing in Tesla is a bet on Musk, not on the company's actual performance. The other six have long track records of financial delivery. But they need to be able to sell freely in markets outside the US in order to carry on growing. What looks invulnerable now can very quickly look quite precarious. A four year continuation of a bull market that has already been running for quite a while is a bold call.

    I’m certainly not locking up my money for 4 years! I’m just saying it’s a pretty safe and likely lucrative ve investment now. I shall keep a watchful brief
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Leon said:

    If he killed himself then we save zillions and we get the benefit of a quasi death penalty without the moral quandary. Win win

    We should offer it, forcefully, to anyone convicted of murder facing a whole life tariff. Take the pills, bye bye
    Surely it’s just easier to give him sheets for his bed, or give him a dressing gown with a belt?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    Eabhal said:

    How come the people blowing up ULEZ cameras haven't been charged with that then?
    Terrorism is not a well defined term and its use is heavily politicised. This has been true for well over one and a quarter centuries.
This discussion has been closed.