There’s a market on a potential Runcorn & Helsby by-election – politicalbetting.com
There’s a market on a potential Runcorn & Helsby by-election – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have put up a market on a potential by election in Runcorn & Helsby following the local MP pleading guilty to connecting with a voter.
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(Has he given reasons why he acted that way, or was it just drunkenness?)
When I explained to her about the recall petition she was delighted. A chance to get Labour out (or so she thinks).
We shall see I suppose.
If they turn their poll numbers into votes, that could be a springboard to the next step.
If they don’t that could be the deflation of their balloon.
I judge Trump by what he does - he is a proven criminal, cheat and fraudster. And far more….
Both are occasionally right - Trump on European rearmament, RFK on some food standards.
But in both cases that is a tiny, tiny portion of their portfolios. Which are otherwise uniformly shit.
We should be looking to take back France.
This was one of the smaller swings to Labour in July, of 4.1%, so from a nominal 48% in 2019. It was pretty much core vote already.
Voters don't like unnecessary by elections, but even so.
Interesting to see if the Conservatives lose their deposit.
You could probably get that 10% in any constituency in the land, even in Clacton at present.
Newly inaugurated President Trump;
„He (Putin) is destroying Russia. He should make a deal. Zelenskyy wants to make a deal.“
Interesting phrasing coming from him. He puts the ball squarely on Russia. [VIDEO]
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1881597346372547071
Video has full remarks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/measles-in-samoa/
... And anyone who thinks that giving the bully their lunch money on the first day of school will keep them safe for the years ahead is a fool.
It is essentially a Ukrainian surrender, with Russia gaining territory it does not hold, e.g. all of Kherson.
This chap pitched a much more ambitious plan…
https://youtu.be/X3b9t5IET5M?si=kqiWaauxZA5CyPol
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1881506238489649223 [VIDEO]
@MikeBirnigglia
If what Elon did wasn’t a Nazi salute then do it tomorrow at work.
Joe Biden has “pre emptively” pardoned Antony Fauci, who:
1. Circumvented US law to enable dangerous gain of function virology at Wuhan - no one questions this
2 Quite likely - but we cannot be certain - therefore enabled the deaths of 20 million people
3. Instituted a cover-up of the possibility of a lab leak (thereby disguising his own involvement) - again, like point 1, this is not disputed
In comparison to the PRE EMPTIVE pardon given to fauci for all this, pardoning a few drunken MAGA rioters is small beer indeed
Zero immigration
Hydrocarbon based energy
No more woke
Anybody thinking that a political commitment has to be somehow coupled to a capacity to deliver it is guilty of pure 22/06/16 thinking.
And who would be the recipients of these reparations and manage them.
Organisations like Oxfam, of course. Organisations interested in managing problems, do they ever solve any ? If they did their raison d'etre disappears.
Britain should pay reparations to India, an Oxfam International report has suggested.
It argued that former colonial powers should pay reparations to former colonies to compensate for the transfer of wealth it claims took place under imperial rule.
It cited analysis that showed that between 1765 and 1900, Britain extracted $64.82 trillion (£52.58 trillion) from India.
“The cost of reparations should be borne by the richest, who benefited the most from colonialism.”
It is the first time the charity has called for such a move.
The report proposed that Western countries commit to paying former colonies a minimum of $5 trillion (£4 trillion) annually in reparations and “climate debt” – the amount of money Western countries are said to owe poorer ones to account for the costs of climate change.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/britain-should-pay-reparations-to-india-oxfam-report-suggests/ar-AA1xxNCN?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=df09fdd90d2a450bbe06c1374be16bdf&ei=12
RFK is a threat to global health. His comments on polio have caused extraordinary anger in the industry
The WHO is an organisation that China has successfully corrupted and, as a result, has lost sight of its purpose and mission. It plays politics where it shouldn’t.
Or on the other hand: he was a good man trying to do a good job, who anti-vaxxers and associated low-IQ fuckwits don't like.
..During the regular daily foreign ministry briefing, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said China is concerned at Trump’s announcement the US is again withdrawing from the Paris climate deal. Reuters quotes the official saying China is actively responding to climate change and will jointly promote global green and low-carbon transition.
The spokesperson also said that the World Health Organization should only be strengthened, not weakened. He said China would continue to support it in fulfilling its responsibilities. ..
What you lay out will scoop dozens of seats but it's not enough to put him into power.
I think point 2 is beyond serious doubt but in the spirit of love and charity I will allow it as “unproven”
As Dura notes, it doesn't have to be particularly coherent.
It still seems to me that he wasn’t intending a Nazi salute at the time but doesn’t care if that’s how it looked.
Problem is, the situation isn't actually a transactional one, Trump is a lousy deal maker and without support Ukraine runs the risk of collapse. All of which plays to Putin's advantage.
All of this is like a political party in the 1780s promising to halt woke coal mining and open up our forests again to deregulated firewood collection.
But as I've said passim, the WHO has done, and does do, much great work. The real reason Trump and the GOP don't want to be part of it is because it stops them doing dangerous stuff they want to do.
As for that team sent by WHO to Wuhan, China made sure that the only senior western scientist on the “investigative team” was none other than Peter Daszak - the guy who led the coronavirus research at Wuhan (funded by Fauci)
It’s all so brazen it’s kinda breathtaking
Indeed even WHO came to admit this and confessed that “maybe they’d been a bit hasty” in ruling out lab leak. And maybe appointing Daszak to the team wasn’t such a superb idea
You don’t say
“Fauci Argued Benefits of Gain-of-Function Research Outweighed Pandemic Risk in 2012 Paper”
These are Fauci’s words:
“In an unlikely but conceivable turn of events, what if that scientist becomes infected with the virus, which leads to an outbreak and ultimately triggers a pandemic? Many ask reasonable questions: given the possibility of such a scenario – however remote – should the initial experiments have been performed and/or published in the first place, and what were the processes involved in this decision?
Scientists working in this field might say – as indeed I have said – that the benefits of such experiments and the resulting knowledge outweigh the risks. It is more likely that a pandemic would occur in nature, and the need to stay ahead of such a threat is a primary reason for performing an experiment that might appear to be risky.
Within the research community, many have expressed concern that important research progress could come to a halt just because of the fear that someone, somewhere, might attempt to replicate these experiments sloppily. This is a valid concern.”
He KNEW the risks. He PREDICTED IT. Yet he went ahead and funded it anyway
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fauci-argued-benefits-gain-function-185934217.html
When you have no decent economic prospects, other cultural issues becomes more relatively important, and there is some behavioural evidence (eg Prospect theory) that losing something is much more of a concern to people than gaining something.
They've already lost their economic wellbeing; now they are worried about losing some vague notion of what it means to be culturally British. That will always be far more potent than some vague investment or infrastructure plan.
It may be perfect in another way; the swing required is enormous, and even if they do well but don't win it is a significant propaganda coup.
Timing may be important. If voting were today Reform would win - there is a Trumpian mood around which is infectious, but what that will feel like in a few weeks or months is the big unknown.
The other strong case for Reform at Runcorn is that no other party's usual supporters have any good reason to turn out. Tepid support is the best available at the moment.
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621668/bp-takers-not-makers-200125-summ-en.pdf
Secondly, you ignore what he's saying: that the benefits of such research outweighed the risks. That may have been a wise call at the time, and (whispers quietly) may even be a correct call now, with care. It is about balancing risks. And your argument is used by anti-vaxxers to stop vaccine development.
You are a dangerous fool on this matter. We should tighten up restrictions on labs *and* stop anything like wet markets. Your onanistic belief that you are right will lead to disaster in the future.
Since then, Project 2025.
Trump reclassifies thousands of federal employees, making them easier to fire
Executive order effectively reinstates ‘Schedule F’, which sought to categorize workers as political hires
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/20/trump-executive-order-schedule-f
I don't think those saying that Trump is too disorganised to do much appreciate that there's a set of loons now in the administration who are.
He claimed that Trump will tell Putin “stop or I give Ukraine everything they want” and will tell Zelensky “you haven’t done all you can and should have thrown in the younger men who are fitter and stronger and would massively boost numbers so if you can’t be bothered to call all resources to the colours then why should we make more effort”.
He didn’t seem like a nut, seemed well informed on international relations and pretty balanced so if he does know what will he said then who knows how that would work out.
Sometimes I think you’re just plain weird. A weirdo. This is one such moment, weirdo
Here's a prediction: it will be the same for all supranational organisations not controlled by the Americans. Perhaps even the UN. If Trump and the GOP cannot control it, they don't want it.
The salutes were only one part of the show of madness
Also said if Chagos deal happens Trump will be very very unhappy with UK.
After that your post goes really odd: '1000 year reich'?, Tulips deportation?, Tories winning Hampstead? and the really odd stuff on squirrels.
This follows your post of a few days ago where you refer to Kemi B as a 'Coconut' and Keir S as 'Evil'.
This content is really weird.
However I’m not going to defend him on this. The first salute might have been some weird star trek geek thing but he’s very smart and you can see on his face he kinda realises what he’s doing and the second was therefore deliberate. To enrage lefties, probably
I wonder (speculating) whether a sort of parallel phenomenon is Great Britain - politics, influence, assumptions - from approximately the great reform act of 1832 to 1914.
I enjoyed Vance’s book, his story is classic Americana rags to riches, and when he talks and tweets, overall he seems to say the right things, but this picture just confronts you with the messy realities of globalism. It makes you feel like you are getting hoodwinked yet again.
https://x.com/_kruptos/status/1881097056162619491
2.3m views.
There is no way a member of the UK government, or opposition, could stand on a platform at a political rally, then do that salute, twice, and keep their job. They'd be out of office and out of their party the same day.
Not that that will matter in the coming storm.
It implies that such deal is worth the paper it's written on.
Which it clearly wouldn't be:
Budapest Memorandum, Minsk, Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Geneva Conventions, the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, etc, etc, etc
The way to a lasting peace in Ukraine is using Western weapons and Ukrainian manpower to smash the Russian army in Ukraine. Anything else, and we'll just be back here again in five years, probably at three times the cost.
issues.
It sounds like he’s trying to turn Labour into Reform-lite but without any conviction or any evidence that he desires this. So it is purely performative
The focus groups must be telling Labour that they are existentially endangered by Reform, and the wider culture wars
He's thrown the police and CPS under a bus.
The Tories need to throw everything at it.
So my feeling is it's not a slam dunk for Reform; Labour doesn't need to defend its left wing; but Reform need to fight it out with the Tories.
10/11 are unattractive odds on Reform.