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How Trump could ensure the UK rejoins the EU – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited January 13
    MattW said:

    One curve ball is that Trump's next Election is Nov 2028, whilst our next GE is "some time before August 2029".

    I'd expect May or October 2028 for ours, but it's possible to be post-Trump.
    By which time ironically Le Pen could be President of France, Meloni still PM in Italy, the AfD leading polls in Germany against the likely next CDU and SPD grand coalition and Vox in power in Spain with the PP. Maybe even Farage heading for Kingmaker here.

    While in the US the
    Democrats might have won back Congress and Buttigieg
    or Shapiro are heading for the White House.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Nigelb said:

    A global relationship recession: across the world, the drop in fertility is not due to fewer children per couple, but to a significant drop in the number of people in relationships.

    Outstanding data story by @jburnmurdoch @ft..

    https://x.com/lugaricano/status/1878001966334320983

    One notable datapoint is that S Korea went from 58% of 25-34 y/o in couples* back in 2000, to 23% now.

    *Married or cohabiting.

    Yes governments in the developed world need to push marriage again as well as having children
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    The word 'unleash' in a big announcement is always a warning sign.

    Some achieve things before making big announcements.

    Some make big announcements before achieving things.

    As an IT professional, an AI user and and an AI… not skeptic, exactly, but…

    AI for writing software is usable as a coding assistant. So it can, for some tasks, increase productivity. That is, I can write more useable code if it get it to do some of the scutt work.

    The accuracy of the code it generates is problematic - so a human needs to write tests, for example. The code it writes also requires someone to check it for funky features.

    So it is a productive tool, but needs an intelligent, engaged human to direct it, check the results and adapt it into useful code.

    Historically, productivity increases like this have increased economic activity.

    Equally, it can be used to turn a few sentences into a badly written telephone directory sized report. And then back to a few sentences. Which suggests a use in the Process State….

    So it can either create a productivity improvement or an increase in miring us in bullshit paperwork. Probably both.

    The above announcement sounds like bullshit to me. How do “AI growth zones” need a locality?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    ohnotnow said:

    Don't forget the 300 'senior' Whitehall 'experts' to oversee the work of those five people out in the regions.
    That’s utter nonsense.

    It will need at least 3,000 people, an office building and a logo.

    Not one of the 3,000 will have ever written a line of code - don’t want specialists get bogged down in the silly details.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,216
    edited January 13
    MattW said:

    One curve ball is that Trump's next Election is Nov 2028, whilst our next GE is "some time before August 2029".

    I'd expect May or October 2028 for ours, but it's possible to be post-Trump.
    Trump never has an election again, he's term limited.

    Midterms in 2026 then electing his successor.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    edited January 13
    Trouble at t'mill.

    "Steve Bannon condemns Elon Musk as ‘racist’ and ‘truly evil’
    Ex-Trump adviser denounces tech CEO’s embrace of some forms of immigration and vows to ‘take this guy down’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/12/steve-bannon-calls-elon-musk-racist
  • HYUFD said:

    Yes governments in the developed world need to push marriage again as well as having children
    My eldest daughter is getting married in August. She is 26. They don't plan to have children until their careers are more advanced because they cannot afford a decent size house and childcare unless both work at a better level. We need houses to be cheaper to unlock the family knot. So build houses. I don't care if mine decreases in value because of increased supply.
    It is better for society in the long run.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,922
    Andy_JS said:

    Trouble at t'mill.

    "Steve Bannon condemns Elon Musk as ‘racist’ and ‘truly evil’
    Ex-Trump adviser denounces tech CEO’s embrace of some forms of immigration and vows to ‘take this guy down’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/12/steve-bannon-calls-elon-musk-racist

    In that article The Grauniad says that Musk had a H-1b visa. He didn't. He overstayed on a F1 visa

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/did-elon-musk-say-he-came-to-us-on-h-1b-visa-major-uproar-over-x-post/articleshow/116804311.cms
    https://x.com/Mteuzi/status/1873053242739098019
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    Andy_JS said:

    Trouble at t'mill.

    "Steve Bannon condemns Elon Musk as ‘racist’ and ‘truly evil’
    Ex-Trump adviser denounces tech CEO’s embrace of some forms of immigration and vows to ‘take this guy down’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/12/steve-bannon-calls-elon-musk-racist

    People Bannon thinks are racist are OK if they put money in ... from the piece.

    “He is a truly evil guy, a very bad guy. I made it my personal thing to take this guy down,” Bannon said. “Before, because he put money in, I was prepared to tolerate it – I’m not prepared to tolerate it any more.”

    He added: “I will have Elon Musk run out of here by inauguration day”, which falls on 20 January. “He will not have full access to the White House. He will be like any other person.”
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149

    Trump never has an election again, he's term limited.

    Midterms in 2026 then electing his successor.
    That's correct, however the Term Limit 22nd amendment was only brought in in 1951, and Trump's Supreme Court have simply overturned far older core features of the US Constitution already.

    Very unlikely ... but .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    The first launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn orbital rocket is due from 09.00.

    Watch it here:
    https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule/blue-origin/new-glenn

    (Incidentally, I think the rocket itself, and the combination of rocket and its strongback, is beautiful.)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Paramedics in England are unable to respond to 100,000 urgent 999 calls every month because they are stuck outside hospitals waiting to hand over patients, endangering thousands of lives, the Guardian can reveal.

    As the crisis engulfing the NHS intensified this weekend, figures showed ambulance crews are tied up at A&E for so long that on more than 3,500 occasions each day they are unable to respond to a 999 plea for help.

    In total, there were 1,313,218 lost job cycles in the past year as a direct result of ambulance handover delays, an analysis of NHS data by the Guardian and the Association of Ambulance Chief Executives (AACE) found.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/12/ambulance-crews-stuck-at-ae-miss-thousands-of-999-calls-a-day-in-england

    We're beyond crisis now. Parts of the healthcare system have simply ceased to function. The ambulance service ain't broken, it's largely non-existent.

    The response to this is to have politicians talk to each other about social care for the next three years, to avoid having to ask bolshie, fed-up voters for yet more money to fix the bed blocking problem and clear overflowing hospital wards. They're frightened to demand the money from us, so they'd prefer that we died instead.

    This is the total lack of leadership that we have to endure. Everything's burning down and they just sit and watch. They won't grab a bucket of water. They won't even get up to piss on it. None of them are any use.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Good news from Russia this morning, where not only are oil facilities 1,000km from Ukraine on fire, but their idiotic army are also blowing up the equipment of the NorKs that are supposed to be on their side.
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1878561091405422819

    It’s also New Glenn Day, with the Blue Origin rocket scheduled to launch shortly. The countdown clock is coming up on T-20 minutes, but there’s likely to be a hold on the way to zero. https://www.blueorigin.com/missions/ng-1

    Bad news, Los Angeles is still very much on fire, and they’re expecting more strong winds today. People also being arrested for looting, also reports of fires being started deliberately with at least one suspect caught red-handed with a blowtorch and arrested for arson. The political fallout is starting, with the fire chief, the mayor, and the governor all trying to blame others.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 575
    edited January 13

    The first launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn orbital rocket is due from 09.00.

    Watch it here:
    https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule/blue-origin/new-glenn

    (Incidentally, I think the rocket itself, and the combination of rocket and its strongback, is beautiful.)

    MattW said:

    That's correct, however the Term Limit 22nd amendment was only brought in in 1951, and Trump's Supreme Court have simply overturned far older core features of the US Constitution already.

    Very unlikely ... but .
    Agreed, he is already refering to this as his 3rd term
  • xyzxyzxyzxyzxyzxyz Posts: 105
    FF43 said:

    Given Brexit has turned out badly in the way that was widely predicted at the time, I would suggest it was the better informed that voted against. In general if am option has a likely bad outcome you are better not choosing it.
    Exports to the EU are at an all time high,

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    Godspeed, New Glenn.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    HYUFD said:

    Yes governments in the developed world need to push marriage again as well as having children
    I don't necessarily disagree - but the problem noted is two or three stations upstream from that. It doesn't matter what the policy on marriage is if people aren't actually in relationships.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    New Glenn launch clock reset, now at T-20’ again.
    https://www.blueorigin.com/missions/ng-1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Sandpit said:

    New Glenn launch clock reset, now at T-20’ again.
    https://www.blueorigin.com/missions/ng-1

    Reset again, now T-35’

    This could be a long morning…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820

    As an IT professional, an AI user and and an AI… not skeptic, exactly, but…

    AI for writing software is usable as a coding assistant. So it can, for some tasks, increase productivity. That is, I can write more useable code if it get it to do some of the scutt work.

    The accuracy of the code it generates is problematic - so a human needs to write tests, for example. The code it writes also requires someone to check it for funky features.

    So it is a productive tool, but needs an intelligent, engaged human to direct it, check the results and adapt it into useful code.

    Historically, productivity increases like this have increased economic activity.

    Equally, it can be used to turn a few sentences into a badly written telephone directory sized report. And then back to a few sentences. Which suggests a use in the Process State….

    So it can either create a productivity improvement or an increase in miring us in bullshit paperwork. Probably both.

    The above announcement sounds like bullshit to me. How do “AI growth zones” need a locality?
    They need power - lots if it, and cheap - and a local planning regime allowing rapid development.

    This is actually one of the government's better policies.

    As an added bonus, it might lead to localised for trinity pricing, which would massively benefit the entire UK electricity market.

    That they're starting to do it within the first year of taking office, suggests they might not be quite the sclerotic dinosaur of PB conventional wisdom.
  • NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    India starting to innovate.

    This deep tech startup is solving air pollution in India.

    They make affordable, powerful, low maintenance (filterless), high-volume air purification systems for both factories (MK II) and homes (Hive).

    It's called Praan, and here's their story:

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1878272007827288250

    India's polluted urban centres provide an enormous potential domestic market.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    rcs1000 said:

    The UK constructed a lot of decent housing in the London suburbs in the 1930s, so I don't think it's technically impossible, merely politically difficult.

    The problem is that too many people - like with the triple lock - benefit from the status quo.
    The main plank to the status quo is our arcane property law (and building regs if @BartholomewRoberts is correct) But who to blame - Thatcher, Blair, Churchill (insert hated politician here). But according to one scholar the blame lies squarely at William the Conqueror and 1066.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/17/high-house-prices-inequality-normans
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    My eldest daughter is getting married in August. She is 26. They don't plan to have children until their careers are more advanced because they cannot afford a decent size house and childcare unless both work at a better level. We need houses to be cheaper to unlock the family knot. So build houses. I don't care if mine decreases in value because of increased supply.
    It is better for society in the long run.
    Maybe but as long as most women choose to work full time after having children that will still keep house prices high and two incomes needed for them and add childcare costs on as well
This discussion has been closed.