It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Could you have a bunch of power stations that burn woodchips instead? Presumably they can be turned off an on almost as quickly.
Coal and wood chips can't be turned on and off easily and quickly. And they are both maintenance heavy, as you need to move physical fuel around, and then deal with ash.
Gas really is the perfect fuel. It's quick to spin up. It is easy to store and move around. And it's highly efficient and relatively non-polluting.
But it is requiring the Government to put £26 billion into CCS to keep natural gas a viable Net Zero-compliant option. Add that into the equation and it isn't a cheap way forward at all.
The CCS policy may not be the right one, but the way it’s reported is a bit distortive. It’s money that will be invested if and when private sector CCS businesses invest themselves, and the idea behind it is to seed what’s seen as a potentially successful cross border industry based on the North Sea coast. So it’s industrial strategy as much as net zero.
That said, my more knowledgeable colleagues who advise on this stuff are sceptical it’s the way to go.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
It really isn't.
Natural gas stations have low capital and maintenance costs, and high fuel costs. That makes them perfect for filling in gaps.
What about the gas production/storage/imports? If we're not using it on a day-to-day basis (including in boilers), what will the market look like for it?
In principle, it's pretty easy to store, isn't it? Back in the early winters of the Ukraine war, the fullness of the European gas reserve came up quite a bit.
The linked question is how much of the year we would need gas to run after an economically plausible maxing out of solar and wind. Grey/still days are inevitable, but how many happen in a "bad" year? Also- what are the capital vs. running costs like for CCS? The less gas is burnt, the less a priority for CCS it feels (over, say, cement).
"Reform is on the march across the UK, and Scotland is no exception. A new Deltapoll survey has found that Nigel Farage’s party now have the support of 17% of Scottish voters, level with the Labour Party and well ahead of the Conservative Party, which is left languishing on just 12%."
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
It really isn't.
Natural gas stations have low capital and maintenance costs, and high fuel costs. That makes them perfect for filling in gaps.
What about the gas production/storage/imports? If we're not using it on a day-to-day basis (including in boilers), what will the market look like for it?
In principle, it's pretty easy to store, isn't it? Back in the early winters of the Ukraine war, the fullness of the European gas reserve came up quite a bit.
The linked question is how much of the year we would need gas to run after an economically plausible maxing out of solar and wind. Grey/still days are inevitable, but how many happen in a "bad" year? Also- what are the capital vs. running costs like for CCS? The less gas is burnt, the less a priority for CCS it feels (over, say, cement).
This is spot on: CCS for CCGTs is a waste of time and money, given that (over time) they will run fewer and fewer hours.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Could you have a bunch of power stations that burn woodchips instead? Presumably they can be turned off an on almost as quickly.
Coal and wood chips can't be turned on and off easily and quickly. And they are both maintenance heavy, as you need to move physical fuel around, and then deal with ash.
Gas really is the perfect fuel. It's quick to spin up. It is easy to store and move around. And it's highly efficient and relatively non-polluting.
But it is requiring the Government to put £26 billion into CCS to keep natural gas a viable Net Zero-compliant option. Add that into the equation and it isn't a cheap way forward at all.
You are entirely correct that CCS for CCGTs is a complete waste of money, that will have minimal impact on emissions, but will discourage people from building them, therefore making our electricity supply less reliable.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
It really isn't.
Natural gas stations have low capital and maintenance costs, and high fuel costs. That makes them perfect for filling in gaps.
What about the gas production/storage/imports? If we're not using it on a day-to-day basis (including in boilers), what will the market look like for it?
Lots of things are only used seasonally, and that's fine. We just need to remember to make sure we have enough storage to cover us for -say- a three month period when solar and wind generation is minimal.
Europe has done a much better job at this than we have. Germany has 255 TWh of natural gas storage; Italy has around 200. The UK has about 30 TWh.
"Reform is on the march across the UK, and Scotland is no exception. A new Deltapoll survey has found that Nigel Farage’s party now have the support of 17% of Scottish voters, level with the Labour Party and well ahead of the Conservative Party, which is left languishing on just 12%."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Aeby ...On July 16, 1945, Aeby took the only well-exposed color photograph of the first detonation of a nuclear weapon at the Trinity nuclear test site in New Mexico.[2][3] While color motion pictures of the Trinity test were made, most were badly overexposed or damaged due to the fireball's tendency to blister and solarize the film. Aeby was a civilian assigned to the Physics Group 5 with Emilio Segrè and Owen Chamberlain at the time his snapshot was taken...
...Aeby was not an official observer at the test site, but was invited along to take informal photos of the work, which he had commonly done since he arrived at Los Alamos. He says he took the photos of the blast on a whim, "it was there so I shot it". He took the film, a non-standard piece of Ansochrome movie stock film, out of the camera that night at a local photo lab, and worked it through the 21 step procedure for color film developing. Later on, Los Alamos management asked him if they could keep the original negative "for safe keeping". It has since been lost...
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
It really isn't.
Natural gas stations have low capital and maintenance costs, and high fuel costs. That makes them perfect for filling in gaps.
What about the gas production/storage/imports? If we're not using it on a day-to-day basis (including in boilers), what will the market look like for it?
Lots of things are only used seasonally, and that's fine. We just need to remember to make sure we have enough storage to cover us for -say- a three month period when solar and wind generation is minimal.
Europe has done a much better job at this than we have. Germany has 255 TWh of natural gas storage; Italy has around 200. The UK has about 30 TWh.
Given Boris can produce hot air at a rate of 75TWh a year he probably didnt think the extra storage was needed.
Its one poll and its very amusing. The trend? Less amusing. Unless there is some kind of radical change in performance from Labour the conclusion that they have failed will be hard to avoid. The Tories? Failed hard, elected woke Queen, failing harder.
That leaves a vacuum and all kinds of things will get sucked in. Reform don't need to offer very much substantial to do very well - just show that they understand.
This is a poll in January 2025 showing mega-splittage and Reform doing very well. A map with an awful lot of purple on it. Now extend the trend forward and think what could be the same poll in 12 months time. Or 24 months...
The far right are on the march and are going to take some stopping, esp with Trump/Musk rolling the pitch. Can we avoid going that way here? Hope so, think so, but I am anxious about it. You think this sort of stuff can't gain critical mass in the UK until, oh, it has and it's here. Then what.
Probably the best way of stopping the far right is to stop calling everyone who disagrees with 'you' far right, then maybe some of that anxiety might dissipate.
He isn't calling everyone who disagree with him "far right". He's implying Musk and Trump are far right.
Musk has called for military force to overthrow the democratically-elected government and the immediate release of a violent repeat offender who led the English Defence League. There are also the tweets where Musk endorsed a Holocaust denier and where he said Jews were conspiring to flood the US with immigrants. If that's not far right, what is?
Trump has said he will deport US citizens, which would be in contravention of the US Constitution. He has spread conspiracy theories about immigrants. He is threatening to invade several countries because he wants their land. He encouraged a violent riot to try to overturn a democratic election 4 years ago. Again, seems pretty far right to me.
Stalin did all of that too.
It’s not “far right” it’s authoritarian / populist
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Next time people discuss the grooming story I will have to issue bans, my requests asking you nicely to not discuss the story isn't working.
Just because somebody else discusses the story doesn't give you an excuse to discuss the story.
Can we discuss Andy Burnham's political aspirations in a neutral way, given that it might have betting implications?
Yes.
My view is that Burnham is focused in GM. His position being discussed in various newspaper headlines is one which is likely to find favour in GM and hold off Reform locally. GM Labour worry about Reform in a way they don't about the Tories, particularly in Rochdale and Oldham.
The MAGA outriders and lunatics are gearing up, high on power. Joe Rogan says that the U.S. "should go right into Mexico. Meanwhile there seem to be retaliatory rumblings from Canada, about steel and other tariffs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Aeby ...On July 16, 1945, Aeby took the only well-exposed color photograph of the first detonation of a nuclear weapon at the Trinity nuclear test site in New Mexico.[2][3] While color motion pictures of the Trinity test were made, most were badly overexposed or damaged due to the fireball's tendency to blister and solarize the film. Aeby was a civilian assigned to the Physics Group 5 with Emilio Segrè and Owen Chamberlain at the time his snapshot was taken...
...Aeby was not an official observer at the test site, but was invited along to take informal photos of the work, which he had commonly done since he arrived at Los Alamos. He says he took the photos of the blast on a whim, "it was there so I shot it". He took the film, a non-standard piece of Ansochrome movie stock film, out of the camera that night at a local photo lab, and worked it through the 21 step procedure for color film developing. Later on, Los Alamos management asked him if they could keep the original negative "for safe keeping". It has since been lost...
Some of the ways things get done in the chaos of war are hilarious in hindsight.
“Mate, can you pop this HISTORICAL RECORD OF ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN HUMAN HISTORY in your pocket and look after it please?”
The MAGA outriders and lunatics are gearing up, high on power. Joe Rogan says that the U.S. "should go right into Mexico. Meanwhile there seem to be retaliatory rumblings from Canada, about steel and other tariffs.
The most effective retaliatory measures must surely be related to planning permission for certain office blocks, resorts and golf courses.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
Not really. Is it the Chinese (I'm sorry I forget). I'd give it up as a bad job.
Soju is around 18-20% which is usually mixed with a very bland beer like Hite or Kass which is around 4%. If you mix it 50/50 it gives you a drink of around 11% which is usually drunk in relatively small quantities say 100ml. i usually saw it drunk as a soju bomb of say 50ml in a small beer 250ml - which gives you a strengthened beer of around 6-7%. Gets you rocking but not excessively so...
But Soju on it own is dangerous - very deceptive and catches up with you very quickly
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Aeby ...On July 16, 1945, Aeby took the only well-exposed color photograph of the first detonation of a nuclear weapon at the Trinity nuclear test site in New Mexico.[2][3] While color motion pictures of the Trinity test were made, most were badly overexposed or damaged due to the fireball's tendency to blister and solarize the film. Aeby was a civilian assigned to the Physics Group 5 with Emilio Segrè and Owen Chamberlain at the time his snapshot was taken...
...Aeby was not an official observer at the test site, but was invited along to take informal photos of the work, which he had commonly done since he arrived at Los Alamos. He says he took the photos of the blast on a whim, "it was there so I shot it". He took the film, a non-standard piece of Ansochrome movie stock film, out of the camera that night at a local photo lab, and worked it through the 21 step procedure for color film developing. Later on, Los Alamos management asked him if they could keep the original negative "for safe keeping". It has since been lost...
Some of the ways things get done in the chaos of war are hilarious in hindsight.
“Mate, can you pop this HISTORICAL RECORD OF ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN HUMAN HISTORY in your pocket and look after it please?”
Not quite the same but the table on the USS Missouri that The Japanese Instrument of Surrender was signed on has probably been lost as no one thought it would be important to keep until afterwards when it had been mixed up with others on the ship.
the clever marketing of Soju is it is sold in smallish bottles of around 300ml (cant remember exact size) which is intended for sharing and toasting. There are 7 standard soju glasses to a bottle so you usually end up ordering an extra bottle to finish a roubd....then another one........
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
Not really. Is it the Chinese (I'm sorry I forget). I'd give it up as a bad job.
Candidly, I think that would be the right choice. Unfortunately, I fear our politicians are all useless, and will fold.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
You also have neap and spring tides. I vaguely recall generation not scaling 1:1 with tidal range, so a spring can generate 5x as much as a neap even if the difference in metres is much smaller than that.
(edit - weird brain moment. I thought a spring tide was called a king).
The fires in LA are ripping the heart out of the film industry there. As well as stars, so many people in technical, creative, commercial roles are losing their homes. Two of the very top agents that my wife works with have both lost everything. Sir Richard Eyre (who is directing Wifey's next movie) met with his very good friend Tony Hopkins today in London. Tony is fairly sanguine about the loss of his home; his wife is utterly distraught though.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
Not really. Is it the Chinese (I'm sorry I forget). I'd give it up as a bad job.
Candidly, I think that would be the right choice. Unfortunately, I fear our politicians are all useless, and will fold.
If you have a handsome machine, the right choice is to pop back to about 2012 and borrow the cash to juts build the damn thing, and not piss about with a financing deal. See also many renewables.
The fires in LA are ripping the heart out of the film industry there. As well as stars, so many people in technical, creative, commercial roles are losing their homes. Two of the very top agents that my wife works with have both lost everything. Sir Richard Eyre (who is directing Wifey's next movie) met with his very good friend Tony Hopkins today in London. Tony is fairly sanguine about the loss of his home; his wife is utterly distraught though.
A resident of the area on Sky News yesterday said that as so many multi million dollar properties have been destroyed that this might be the most costly natural disaster in US history.
The MAGA outriders and lunatics are gearing up, high on power. Joe Rogan says that the U.S. "should go right into Mexico. Meanwhile there seem to be retaliatory rumblings from Canada, about steel and other tariffs.
The most effective retaliatory measures must surely be related to planning permission for certain office blocks, resorts and golf courses.
Poor old Canada. I wish them well with all this, and I think they are one of the most civilised places anywhere.
I've had a look at my savings spreadsheet and although the pound hasn't been this low against USD since November 2023, it is the highest it's been against the Euro since Feb 2022. Is the current kerfuffle cause by a strong dollar or a weak pound?
Strong dollar
Inflation will be higher under Trump therefore interest rates higher therefore dollar stronger
Which is true and yet we have exactly the same conundrum with higher inflation and interest rate expectations post budget and sterling is tanking.
It’s all relative (plus, as @rcs1000 noted, USD is the global reserve currency)
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
The daily variation in tidal generation isn't really a problem, as it's becoming increasingly easy and cheap to smooth out with battery storage.
The big variation in tidal range (and therefore power generation) over a month though, makes it less suitable as base load, as the storage (or alternate generation) needed to smooth that out is a much bigger multiple of daily generation.
Its one poll and its very amusing. The trend? Less amusing. Unless there is some kind of radical change in performance from Labour the conclusion that they have failed will be hard to avoid. The Tories? Failed hard, elected woke Queen, failing harder.
That leaves a vacuum and all kinds of things will get sucked in. Reform don't need to offer very much substantial to do very well - just show that they understand.
This is a poll in January 2025 showing mega-splittage and Reform doing very well. A map with an awful lot of purple on it. Now extend the trend forward and think what could be the same poll in 12 months time. Or 24 months...
The far right are on the march and are going to take some stopping, esp with Trump/Musk rolling the pitch. Can we avoid going that way here? Hope so, think so, but I am anxious about it. You think this sort of stuff can't gain critical mass in the UK until, oh, it has and it's here. Then what.
Probably the best way of stopping the far right is to stop calling everyone who disagrees with 'you' far right, then maybe some of that anxiety might dissipate.
He isn't calling everyone who disagree with him "far right". He's implying Musk and Trump are far right.
Musk has called for military force to overthrow the democratically-elected government and the immediate release of a violent repeat offender who led the English Defence League. There are also the tweets where Musk endorsed a Holocaust denier and where he said Jews were conspiring to flood the US with immigrants. If that's not far right, what is?
Trump has said he will deport US citizens, which would be in contravention of the US Constitution. He has spread conspiracy theories about immigrants. He is threatening to invade several countries because he wants their land. He encouraged a violent riot to try to overturn a democratic election 4 years ago. Again, seems pretty far right to me.
Stalin did all of that too.
It’s not “far right” it’s authoritarian / populist
It seems the far right has become the scarlet pimpernel of right wing politics. Nowhere to be seen. No siree. That is not in fact a spade, it’s a giant trowel.
Not at all. It clearly existed - the likes of the BNP/EDL/Tommy Robinson fall into that category. I don’t know enough about AfD but quite likely as well.
But it’s a much overused term of abuse - and that diluted the impact. There are no “far right” Tory MPs for example. Reform as a party is not “far right” (although I’m more inclined to believe it has some far right members).
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
Yesterday was pretty close to worst case scenario weather-wise and in terms of the import position, and we steered fairly comfortably clear, so I think we’re ok.
The US (or parts of it) is notorious for brownouts because of its weirdly isolated state grids, with some states being complete islands with no interconnectors. Apparently 1 in 4 US households experience a power outage each year.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Could you have a bunch of power stations that burn woodchips instead? Presumably they can be turned off an on almost as quickly.
Coal and wood chips can't be turned on and off easily and quickly. And they are both maintenance heavy, as you need to move physical fuel around, and then deal with ash.
Gas really is the perfect fuel. It's quick to spin up. It is easy to store and move around. And it's highly efficient and relatively non-polluting.
But it is requiring the Government to put £26 billion into CCS to keep natural gas a viable Net Zero-compliant option. Add that into the equation and it isn't a cheap way forward at all.
The CCS policy may not be the right one, but the way it’s reported is a bit distortive. It’s money that will be invested if and when private sector CCS businesses invest themselves, and the idea behind it is to seed what’s seen as a potentially successful cross border industry based on the North Sea coast. So it’s industrial strategy as much as net zero.
That said, my more knowledgeable colleagues who advise on this stuff are sceptical it’s the way to go.
"The CCS policy may not be the right one, but the way it’s reported is a bit distortive."
I'm not complaining about how it's reported, I'm complaining about i) the fact of its existence, and ii) the £2X billion spent on it. It's a stupid idea, it doesn't work, I don't want to spend money on making it work, because everything it does can be done better and cheaper by other methods, and spending such a staggering sum on it is appalling.
Its one poll and its very amusing. The trend? Less amusing. Unless there is some kind of radical change in performance from Labour the conclusion that they have failed will be hard to avoid. The Tories? Failed hard, elected woke Queen, failing harder.
That leaves a vacuum and all kinds of things will get sucked in. Reform don't need to offer very much substantial to do very well - just show that they understand.
This is a poll in January 2025 showing mega-splittage and Reform doing very well. A map with an awful lot of purple on it. Now extend the trend forward and think what could be the same poll in 12 months time. Or 24 months...
The far right are on the march and are going to take some stopping, esp with Trump/Musk rolling the pitch. Can we avoid going that way here? Hope so, think so, but I am anxious about it. You think this sort of stuff can't gain critical mass in the UK until, oh, it has and it's here. Then what.
Probably the best way of stopping the far right is to stop calling everyone who disagrees with 'you' far right, then maybe some of that anxiety might dissipate.
He isn't calling everyone who disagree with him "far right". He's implying Musk and Trump are far right.
Musk has called for military force to overthrow the democratically-elected government and the immediate release of a violent repeat offender who led the English Defence League. There are also the tweets where Musk endorsed a Holocaust denier and where he said Jews were conspiring to flood the US with immigrants. If that's not far right, what is?
Trump has said he will deport US citizens, which would be in contravention of the US Constitution. He has spread conspiracy theories about immigrants. He is threatening to invade several countries because he wants their land. He encouraged a violent riot to try to overturn a democratic election 4 years ago. Again, seems pretty far right to me.
Stalin did all of that too.
It’s not “far right” it’s authoritarian / populist
It seems the far right has become the scarlet pimpernel of right wing politics. Nowhere to be seen. No siree. That is not in fact a spade, it’s a giant trowel.
Not at all. It clearly existed - the likes of the BNP/EDL/Tommy Robinson fall into that category. I don’t know enough about AfD but quite likely as well.
But it’s a much overused term of abuse - and that diluted the impact. There are no “far right” Tory MPs for example. Reform as a party is not “far right” (although I’m more inclined to believe it has some far right members).
I think most people in politics, including in Labour, follow similar logic. But Reform is as you say a chimera, in the same way that British left wing parties, especially the Greens and independents, contain far left elements.
The only people or groups Starmer has referred to as far right have been race rioters, the EDL and those inciting them online during the summer, and [redacted billionaire] during [redacted], both of which based on public statements are reasonable descriptions.
Starmer has of course been described as far left by various MAGA spokespeople repeatedly (but then so was Kamala).
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
So today’s electricity grid capacity is the responsibility of a. The party that’s been I government since July, or b. The party that’s been in government since 2010?
Feel free to blame Clegg for going cold on nuclear in the coalition (but equally praise Davey for the huge amount of wind capacity brought on stream), but blaming anyone in Labour for this sort of thing is a little daft.
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
Another huge takedown of wokeism in the US, a federal judge has ruled that Biden didn't have authority to expand Title IX protections because it was originally enacted by Congress so only Congress can amend/expand it. Woke politics really is in absolute ruin in the US, by the end of 2025 I think this will have expanded to the UK too. Social media is swinging to away from it rapidly and that will tell sooner rather than later. The "it's called being polite" defence is already failing among people I know.
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
I didn't wish Labour any ill-will, but it has been quite surprising how bad they've appeared to be. We can argue about prevailing winds, their economic inheritance, whatever. But for people who knew they were going to gain power, and claimed to have been absolutely prepared for Government - it's a bit of a surprise how badly they've managed it all.
Have they spent the £20bn on the NHS now? No idea. Have they hinted at any legislation on their 8-point plan? Or was it the five missions? Or 9 wishes? Or.... something? In any case - no idea.
Such a shame that the government with a majority which could have transformed the country (whether you agree with their direction or not) seems to just be squandering it entirely.
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
Add in to the equation Trump winning the POTUS and about to take office on a hugely inflationary budget, we have the perfect storm and an event on the 20th January with enormous worldwide implications
Reforms ascent may well continue, but also the trend across the west is towards right wing governments with only Starmer trying to stem the tide like Canute
I expect depressing times ahead for Labour and their supporters
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
I didn't wish Labour any ill-will, but it has been quite surprising how bad they've appeared to be. We can argue about prevailing winds, their economic inheritance, whatever. But for people who knew they were going to gain power, and claimed to have been absolutely prepared for Government - it's a bit of a surprise how badly they've managed it all.
Have they spent the £20bn on the NHS now? No idea. Have they hinted at any legislation on their 8-point plan? Or was it the five missions? Or 9 wishes? Or.... something? In any case - no idea.
Such a shame that the government with a majority which could have transformed the country (whether you agree with their direction or not) seems to just be squandering it entirely.
"Come on, Tim Keir!"
The 20 billion is over 2 years for the NHS, but goodness knows where the rest of the public sector gets funded especially on wage increases
Another huge takedown of wokeism in the US, a federal judge has ruled that Biden didn't have authority to expand Title IX protections because it was originally enacted by Congress so only Congress can amend/expand it. Woke politics really is in absolute ruin in the US, by the end of 2025 I think this will have expanded to the UK too. Social media is swinging to away from it rapidly and that will tell sooner rather than later. The "it's called being polite" defence is already failing among people I know.
There's an analogy with Roe v Wade in that a lot of longstanding intepretations of laws which mandated DEI have been deemed illegal and it could end with a full-scale rollback.
The fires in LA are ripping the heart out of the film industry there. As well as stars, so many people in technical, creative, commercial roles are losing their homes. Two of the very top agents that my wife works with have both lost everything. Sir Richard Eyre (who is directing Wifey's next movie) met with his very good friend Tony Hopkins today in London. Tony is fairly sanguine about the loss of his home; his wife is utterly distraught though.
A resident of the area on Sky News yesterday said that as so many multi million dollar properties have been destroyed that this might be the most costly natural disaster in US history.
Not just the homes. There'll be a mass of truly wonderful art that will have perished too. And probably lots of rare cars too.
The fires in LA are ripping the heart out of the film industry there. As well as stars, so many people in technical, creative, commercial roles are losing their homes. Two of the very top agents that my wife works with have both lost everything. Sir Richard Eyre (who is directing Wifey's next movie) met with his very good friend Tony Hopkins today in London. Tony is fairly sanguine about the loss of his home; his wife is utterly distraught though.
A resident of the area on Sky News yesterday said that as so many multi million dollar properties have been destroyed that this might be the most costly natural disaster in US history.
Not just the homes. There'll be a mass of truly wonderful art that will have perished too. And probably lots of rare cars too.
That's why great artefacts belong in places like the British Museum.
It's pretty tight at the moment, nearly 50GW of demand and wind was down at only 4GW yesterday evening.
In the future, we're going to end up in a position where we need loads of gas capacity that is very rarely used. The economics of that is rather interesting.
We’re possibly in that future now. It’s pretty rare that most gas capacity is being used. As more wind comes on stream that will become even rarer, but the amount of reserve capacity needed will also drop.
Take right now: 47gw demand of which gas is 21 and wind is 13. A few years ago on similar loadings wind would have been low single figures. With a doubling of capacity tonight would be 26 wind and 8 gas. Battery storage should help too.
And widespread use of variable tariffs. Would be great if everyone with an EV could unplug until 1am...
The problem is if are in a dead calm for 7 days - you'd need an enormous amount of BESS to make up for it. Tidal has significant intermittency challenges too. Having a bunch of gas power stations on standby is always going to be cheaper - just need to plant a load of trees to make up for it.
Are you sure the intermittency issue is bad with tidal? I think it's fairly good.
Because high and low tide are at different times around the country, you can produce something that provides something approaching 24 hour power supply if you build between 4 and 6 tidal barrages. (It's still not 100%, because each of the barrages produces only provides peak power for a relatively small period and therefore it's based around overlapping.)
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
You also have neap and spring tides. I vaguely recall generation not scaling 1:1 with tidal range, so a spring can generate 5x as much as a neap even if the difference in metres is much smaller than that.
(edit - weird brain moment. I thought a spring tide was called a king).
Yesterday was 70.2% illumination, with today being 80.3%, so the tidal power would have been about half way between the local neap low and spring max.
Soju is around 18-20% which is usually mixed with a very bland beer like Hite or Kass which is around 4%. If you mix it 50/50 it gives you a drink of around 11% which is usually drunk in relatively small quantities say 100ml. i usually saw it drunk as a soju bomb of say 50ml in a small beer 250ml - which gives you a strengthened beer of around 6-7%. Gets you rocking but not excessively so...
But Soju on it own is dangerous - very deceptive and catches up with you very quickly
I (faintly) remember when Absinth became popular again (legal even?) in the 90s. My partner and I bought a bottle and had a sip of this infamous drink. 'Meh' we thought. And had another. 'Meh'. And another.
A full bottle between us in one night of increasingly bleary 'Meh'.
*Boy* were the next few days and nights a blur of pain.
I think I heard Kemi ask Slalom whether he intended to introduce the Labour Party's accepted definition of Islamophobia into law. I didn't hear his answer
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
I didn't wish Labour any ill-will, but it has been quite surprising how bad they've appeared to be. We can argue about prevailing winds, their economic inheritance, whatever. But for people who knew they were going to gain power, and claimed to have been absolutely prepared for Government - it's a bit of a surprise how badly they've managed it all.
Have they spent the £20bn on the NHS now? No idea. Have they hinted at any legislation on their 8-point plan? Or was it the five missions? Or 9 wishes? Or.... something? In any case - no idea.
Such a shame that the government with a majority which could have transformed the country (whether you agree with their direction or not) seems to just be squandering it entirely.
"Come on, Tim Keir!"
And this is the point, they can have as many reboots, 8 point plant or missions or whatever but they haven't backed it up with action this day. Where is the legislative plan, where are ministers preparing the ground for big reforms of departments that have gone backwards in productivity for 5+ years, where is the PM selling this vision to the public? It feels remarkably like an end stage government that's been in power for 10+ years and is out of energy and ideas already but it's been 6 months. I really don't understand where the lack of urgency for reforming public services comes from, Labour's majority is built on sand, at the next election it's unlikely that they'll have a majority or perhaps even be the governing party. If they want to win again they need to get on and do things, fix social care funding, push through tough reforms of the NHS to increase productivity and heavily automate public sector services with capital investment to reduce OpEx.
Its one poll and its very amusing. The trend? Less amusing. Unless there is some kind of radical change in performance from Labour the conclusion that they have failed will be hard to avoid. The Tories? Failed hard, elected woke Queen, failing harder.
That leaves a vacuum and all kinds of things will get sucked in. Reform don't need to offer very much substantial to do very well - just show that they understand.
This is a poll in January 2025 showing mega-splittage and Reform doing very well. A map with an awful lot of purple on it. Now extend the trend forward and think what could be the same poll in 12 months time. Or 24 months...
The far right are on the march and are going to take some stopping, esp with Trump/Musk rolling the pitch. Can we avoid going that way here? Hope so, think so, but I am anxious about it. You think this sort of stuff can't gain critical mass in the UK until, oh, it has and it's here. Then what.
Probably the best way of stopping the far right is to stop calling everyone who disagrees with 'you' far right, then maybe some of that anxiety might dissipate.
He isn't calling everyone who disagree with him "far right". He's implying Musk and Trump are far right.
Musk has called for military force to overthrow the democratically-elected government and the immediate release of a violent repeat offender who led the English Defence League. There are also the tweets where Musk endorsed a Holocaust denier and where he said Jews were conspiring to flood the US with immigrants. If that's not far right, what is?
Trump has said he will deport US citizens, which would be in contravention of the US Constitution. He has spread conspiracy theories about immigrants. He is threatening to invade several countries because he wants their land. He encouraged a violent riot to try to overturn a democratic election 4 years ago. Again, seems pretty far right to me.
Stalin did all of that too.
It’s not “far right” it’s authoritarian / populist
I think that one element of academic definitions of Fascism that Trump possibly does not meet is placing the State above the individual, and that the fascism is an ideology. It's a grey judgement thou as Trump imo in a way regards the State as being a machine to serve his interests, and as a rhetoric to use ("America"), which involves oppressing anyone he needs to oppress.
In that sense Trump is perhaps more a tyrant without an ideology.
One interesting note I have seen today is on Elon Musk moving family (and staff?) into a house on the Mar-a-Lago estate. That is getting close to the icon of power.
There was a time soon after the Election when all of the Trump hangers on were around Mar-a-Lago likes bees to a honeypot, reminding the "Boss" of their presence to get their piece of flesh whilst he was reminded of them.
I'm still gong with a Great Leader and Associates plus Oligarchs, with the manipulated State at their service, model for my idea of the new Trump regime, and that being closest (apart from that voters were involved) to something like Venezuela or maybe Thailand.
We will see something like the remaining uncorrupted aspects of the Judiciary trying to slow him down, as it was the Judiciary system which has often resisted African tyrants. The former Archbishop of York, John Sentamu, was imprisoned by Idi Amin for 3 months, and physically beaten up when he was a High Court Advocate then Judge in 1974.
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
I didn't wish Labour any ill-will, but it has been quite surprising how bad they've appeared to be. We can argue about prevailing winds, their economic inheritance, whatever. But for people who knew they were going to gain power, and claimed to have been absolutely prepared for Government - it's a bit of a surprise how badly they've managed it all.
Have they spent the £20bn on the NHS now? No idea. Have they hinted at any legislation on their 8-point plan? Or was it the five missions? Or 9 wishes? Or.... something? In any case - no idea.
Such a shame that the government with a majority which could have transformed the country (whether you agree with their direction or not) seems to just be squandering it entirely.
"Come on, Tim Keir!"
And this is the point, they can have as many reboots, 8 point plant or missions or whatever but they haven't backed it up with action this day. Where is the legislative plan, where are ministers preparing the ground for big reforms of departments that have gone backwards in productivity for 5+ years, where is the PM selling this vision to the public? It feels remarkably like an end stage government that's been in power for 10+ years and is out of energy and ideas already but it's been 6 months. I really don't understand where the lack of urgency for reforming public services comes from, Labour's majority is built on sand, at the next election it's unlikely that they'll have a majority or perhaps even be the governing party. If they want to win again they need to get on and do things, fix social care funding, push through tough reforms of the NHS to increase productivity and heavily automate public sector services with capital investment to reduce OpEx.
I don't especially care whether they focus on reforming civil service departments, or business regulation, or free-market vs state-ism. It just really puzzles me that there's nothing. Maybe they have plans to find the mysterious 'back office savings' we often hear about. Maybe they will deregulate industry. Maybe they'll .... Whatever.
The only concrete things I think I can remember is £20bn for the NHS and fiddling about with local government tiers.
Just squandering a majority of a billionty seats seems like such a terribly sad missed opportunity. Maybe they are genuinely surprised that running a country is a tad tricky. In which case.... wtf?
I think I heard Kemi ask Slalom whether he intended to introduce the Labour Party's accepted definition of Islamophobia into law. I didn't hear his answer
The fires in LA are ripping the heart out of the film industry there. As well as stars, so many people in technical, creative, commercial roles are losing their homes. Two of the very top agents that my wife works with have both lost everything. Sir Richard Eyre (who is directing Wifey's next movie) met with his very good friend Tony Hopkins today in London. Tony is fairly sanguine about the loss of his home; his wife is utterly distraught though.
A resident of the area on Sky News yesterday said that as so many multi million dollar properties have been destroyed that this might be the most costly natural disaster in US history.
Not just the homes. There'll be a mass of truly wonderful art that will have perished too. And probably lots of rare cars too.
Eep yes, the insurance claims are going to be eye watering
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
Yesterday was pretty close to worst case scenario weather-wise and in terms of the import position, and we steered fairly comfortably clear, so I think we’re ok.
The US (or parts of it) is notorious for brownouts because of its weirdly isolated state grids, with some states being complete islands with no interconnectors. Apparently 1 in 4 US households experience a power outage each year.
Yes but as we've discussed with the currency situation below being the 900 lb gorilla in the room comes with certain advantages. Other nations need to be more careful than the US economically
The fires in LA are ripping the heart out of the film industry there. As well as stars, so many people in technical, creative, commercial roles are losing their homes. Two of the very top agents that my wife works with have both lost everything. Sir Richard Eyre (who is directing Wifey's next movie) met with his very good friend Tony Hopkins today in London. Tony is fairly sanguine about the loss of his home; his wife is utterly distraught though.
A resident of the area on Sky News yesterday said that as so many multi million dollar properties have been destroyed that this might be the most costly natural disaster in US history.
Not just the homes. There'll be a mass of truly wonderful art that will have perished too. And probably lots of rare cars too.
Eep yes, the insurance claims are going to be eye watering
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
Yesterday was pretty close to worst case scenario weather-wise and in terms of the import position, and we steered fairly comfortably clear, so I think we’re ok.
The US (or parts of it) is notorious for brownouts because of its weirdly isolated state grids, with some states being complete islands with no interconnectors. Apparently 1 in 4 US households experience a power outage each year.
Yes but as we've discussed with the currency situation below being the 900 lb gorilla in the room comes with certain advantages. Other nations need to be more careful than the US economically
Apparently insurance cover was withdrawn by the insurers on many of these homes sometime ago
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
I didn't wish Labour any ill-will, but it has been quite surprising how bad they've appeared to be. We can argue about prevailing winds, their economic inheritance, whatever. But for people who knew they were going to gain power, and claimed to have been absolutely prepared for Government - it's a bit of a surprise how badly they've managed it all.
Have they spent the £20bn on the NHS now? No idea. Have they hinted at any legislation on their 8-point plan? Or was it the five missions? Or 9 wishes? Or.... something? In any case - no idea.
Such a shame that the government with a majority which could have transformed the country (whether you agree with their direction or not) seems to just be squandering it entirely.
"Come on, Tim Keir!"
And this is the point, they can have as many reboots, 8 point plant or missions or whatever but they haven't backed it up with action this day. Where is the legislative plan, where are ministers preparing the ground for big reforms of departments that have gone backwards in productivity for 5+ years, where is the PM selling this vision to the public? It feels remarkably like an end stage government that's been in power for 10+ years and is out of energy and ideas already but it's been 6 months. I really don't understand where the lack of urgency for reforming public services comes from, Labour's majority is built on sand, at the next election it's unlikely that they'll have a majority or perhaps even be the governing party. If they want to win again they need to get on and do things, fix social care funding, push through tough reforms of the NHS to increase productivity and heavily automate public sector services with capital investment to reduce OpEx.
I don't especially care whether they focus on reforming civil service departments, or business regulation, or free-market vs state-ism. It just really puzzles me that there's nothing. Maybe they have plans to find the mysterious 'back office savings' we often hear about. Maybe they will deregulate industry. Maybe they'll .... Whatever.
The only concrete things I think I can remember is £20bn for the NHS and fiddling about with local government tiers.
Just squandering a majority of a billionty seats seems like such a terribly sad missed opportunity. Maybe they are genuinely surprised that running a country is a tad tricky. In which case.... wtf?
The "we have nothing" approach to government has really confused me too. So far their approach has been to pump up public sector salaries, shove money to the NHS, give away sovereign territory and £9bn to Mauritius, what feels like payback/vindictiveness towards the countryside and not fully understanding how taxes intertwine with economic growth.
When they've done something it's been bad to absolutely terrible and in most cases, such as the money for the NHS, it's not actually been outlined what the extra money will specifically deliver so people won't actually know how they've benefited from it.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
If we do hit brownouts then it's going to cause a further loss of confidence in UK plc which, you've guessed it will push gilts up again...
I'm not sure the UK can take another 4 years of this.
Yes, this week has been particularly bruising for the UK. We're adrift economically, there's a domestic political crisis that the PM has failed to tackle and will be dragged into kicking and screaming now that he's got dissent from within Labour itself and there's no end in sight.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
Add in to the equation Trump winning the POTUS and about to take office on a hugely inflationary budget, we have the perfect storm and an event on the 20th January with enormous worldwide implications
Reforms ascent may well continue, but also the trend across the west is towards right wing governments with only Starmer trying to stem the tide like Canute
I expect depressing times ahead for Labour and their supporters
Here's the thing though.
The rise of Reform may be bad for Labour. I certainly think it's bad for the country.
But it's a matter of life and death for the Conservatives. And at the moment, Conservatives don't seem to realise that following the talking points of the new right bubble (I hope that's neutral enough, it's not just That Thing) strengthens Reform at the Conservatives' expense.
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
To be honest you have had to repeat this warning many times and still some posters still do not get it
I believe you should act from now on on anyone ignoring your warning and you will have the support of the vast majority of us
I think I heard Kemi ask Slalom whether he intended to introduce the Labour Party's accepted definition of Islamophobia into law. I didn't hear his answer
Did one come?
I believe that this is his "far right" line
He's a complicated Zionist
Kemi misrepresented the definition of Islamophobia. See Shockhat Adam here:
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
Do you remember the thread two threads ago: The Law Of Unintended Consequences?
Did you really intend to ban discussion of PMQs on PB?
Another huge takedown of wokeism in the US, a federal judge has ruled that Biden didn't have authority to expand Title IX protections because it was originally enacted by Congress so only Congress can amend/expand it. Woke politics really is in absolute ruin in the US, by the end of 2025 I think this will have expanded to the UK too. Social media is swinging to away from it rapidly and that will tell sooner rather than later. The "it's called being polite" defence is already failing among people I know.
...which reminds me. You know you plan to move back to Switzerland? It introduced self-id on Jan 1 2022.
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
To be honest you have had to repeat this warning many times and still some posters still do not get it
I believe you should act from now on on anyone ignoring your warning and you will have the support of the vast majority of us
Gas 43% tonight. And yet somehow by 2030 it will be a handful of % at absolute tops???
I'm very environmental and yet that does not make sense.
Nobody in government actually expects a zero carbon grid by 2030. At least nobody I know of. But if you set the target at 2030 then maybe by 2035 you’ll be getting there. If you set it to 2040 then nobody will do anything until about 2035.
That’s how every major project works - and boy is this a major project, it’s about contributing towards averting global catastrophe.
If we were expecting a Russian invasion of Britain by 2030 then you can be sure there’d be a hell of a lot more urgency about doing something than there is about curbing emissions.
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
Do you remember the thread two threads ago: The Law Of Unintended Consequences?
Did you really intend to ban discussion of PMQs on PB?
That implies there was something said at PMQs that would be worth discussing. Such we know is not the case.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
Of course there is, in a universe where it isn't value for money.
If it costs a hundred million over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a billion to generate over the same timescale then it is worthwhile.
If it cost a billion over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a hundred million to generate over the same timescale then it is not worthwhile.
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
Do you remember the thread two threads ago: The Law Of Unintended Consequences?
Did you really intend to ban discussion of PMQs on PB?
Only if PMQs covers the subject that can never be mentioned I think.
We have to trust the guys who run this site - taking up lots of their valuable time - to make the right calls on all this.
We owe them a lot. Seems a small price to trust them on the OSA and this particular issue.
Its one poll and its very amusing. The trend? Less amusing. Unless there is some kind of radical change in performance from Labour the conclusion that they have failed will be hard to avoid. The Tories? Failed hard, elected woke Queen, failing harder.
That leaves a vacuum and all kinds of things will get sucked in. Reform don't need to offer very much substantial to do very well - just show that they understand.
This is a poll in January 2025 showing mega-splittage and Reform doing very well. A map with an awful lot of purple on it. Now extend the trend forward and think what could be the same poll in 12 months time. Or 24 months...
The far right are on the march and are going to take some stopping, esp with Trump/Musk rolling the pitch. Can we avoid going that way here? Hope so, think so, but I am anxious about it. You think this sort of stuff can't gain critical mass in the UK until, oh, it has and it's here. Then what.
FPTP is generally your friend there, as voters often find a way to exclude those who gain a certain amount of popularity but who everyone else thinks is crackers.
This is what I'm hoping. People will be polarised into 2 camps, ok with it vs repelled by it, and the latter group will (a) be larger and (b) being by definition smarter too will vote in a way that maximises their FPTP impact.
That only works if it's clear who the Stop-X candidate is. But the volatility in the last 6 months means it's hard to make that call in many places now, never mind in 4 years time. It also assumes the Stop-X candidate is sufficiently acceptable to supporters of other parties.
Put simply, this is not Get-the-Tories-Out again. The next election doesn't look like it will fit the two-camps model and 2019 might be a better parallel where there was a Stop-Corbyn effect but there was no equivalent Stop-Brexit / Stop-Johnson vote because Corbyn was too toxic to centrist/centre-right Remainers.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
Of course there is, in a universe where it isn't value for money.
If it costs a hundred million over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a billion to generate over the same timescale then it is worthwhile.
If it cost a billion over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a hundred million to generate over the same timescale then it is not worthwhile.
We all know from personal experience (and you must know, living in a modern and presumably very well insulated house) that every investment in insulation, boring as it may be, pays off many times over. Same as double and triple glazing. It is just about the most cost effective thing we can do as a country to reduce demand. And it saves the household money they can spend on other things.
Trump is on the verge of having a net-positive favorable rating -- something he never had in his first term.
Doubt those net positive hispanic voters are gonna feel so positive when they are staring at a wire cage with one bucket toilet between thirty of them but them's the breaks.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
I would argue that like the WFP many of these subsidies are going to the well off who can afford to pay for them, so maybe all these subsidies should be means tested
The vast majority of EVs and heat pumps are outside most people budgets, so frankly it is a bung that we cannot afford
Same applies to insulation and solar panels
I have both, plus a new A rated gas boiler and I paid for all of them without any help from my fellow taxpayers
Next time people discuss the grooming story I will have to issue bans, my requests asking you nicely to not discuss the story isn't working.
Just because somebody else discusses the story doesn't give you an excuse to discuss the story.
Can we discuss Andy Burnham's political aspirations in a neutral way, given that it might have betting implications?
Yes.
My view is that Burnham is focused in GM. His position being discussed in various newspaper headlines is one which is likely to find favour in GM and hold off Reform locally. GM Labour worry about Reform in a way they don't about the Tories, particularly in Rochdale and Oldham.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
Of course there is, in a universe where it isn't value for money.
If it costs a hundred million over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a billion to generate over the same timescale then it is worthwhile.
If it cost a billion over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a hundred million to generate over the same timescale then it is not worthwhile.
We all know from personal experience (and you must know, living in a modern and presumably very well insulated house) that every investment in insulation, boring as it may be, pays off many times over. Same as double and triple glazing. It is just about the most cost effective thing we can do as a country to reduce demand. And it saves the household money they can spend on other things.
Sorry, but we all know from personal and professional experience that anyone who uses the term "every" is making a crass overgeneralisation that is not correct.
A great many insulation investments are a good idea, especially eg glazing. However that does not mean that every such possible investment is.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
Of course there is, in a universe where it isn't value for money.
If it costs a hundred million over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a billion to generate over the same timescale then it is worthwhile.
If it cost a billion over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a hundred million to generate over the same timescale then it is not worthwhile.
We all know from personal experience (and you must know, living in a modern and presumably very well insulated house) that every investment in insulation, boring as it may be, pays off many times over. Same as double and triple glazing. It is just about the most cost effective thing we can do as a country to reduce demand. And it saves the household money they can spend on other things.
Well, not if the spray foam in their loft has made the house unmortgagable
Gas 43% tonight. And yet somehow by 2030 it will be a handful of % at absolute tops???
I'm very environmental and yet that does not make sense.
Nobody in government actually expects a zero carbon grid by 2030. At least nobody I know of. But if you set the target at 2030 then maybe by 2035 you’ll be getting there. If you set it to 2040 then nobody will do anything until about 2035.
That’s how every major project works - and boy is this a major project, it’s about contributing towards averting global catastrophe.
If we were expecting a Russian invasion of Britain by 2030 then you can be sure there’d be a hell of a lot more urgency about doing something than there is about curbing emissions.
Fair enough but seems to me the plan is very light on practical detail. Even the head of engineer union says there isn't enough cable capacity to deliver these targets. And when are they going to do something about the structure of electric market? And what happened to small scale nuclear? And what about fusion - AEP in Telegraph writing the other day that Miliband doesn't seem interested even though we could have world defining cluster of tech here in UK?
TSE - I think it would help if you could explain the specific reason for the ban on discussing this specific issue. I know we have the OSA coming in but what makes this one issue a risk as opposed to any others?
For the final time.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
Do you remember the thread two threads ago: The Law Of Unintended Consequences?
Did you really intend to ban discussion of PMQs on PB?
It was only relevant to this week's which it dominated
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
I would argue that like the WFP many of these subsidies are going to the well off who can afford to pay for them, so maybe all these subsidies should be means tested
The vast majority of EVs and heat pumps are outside most people budgets, so frankly it is a bung that we cannot afford
Same applies to insulation and solar panels
I have both, plus a new A rated gas boiler and I paid for all of them without any help from my fellow taxpayers
These are questions that should be asked
It's hard to argue too much with heat pumps: they're amazingly efficient systems compared to what they replaced. Our electricity bill dropped by more than a third when we got rid of our old air conditioning units and replaced them with heat pumps. That they also heat efficiently is just a bonus.
Its one poll and its very amusing. The trend? Less amusing. Unless there is some kind of radical change in performance from Labour the conclusion that they have failed will be hard to avoid. The Tories? Failed hard, elected woke Queen, failing harder.
That leaves a vacuum and all kinds of things will get sucked in. Reform don't need to offer very much substantial to do very well - just show that they understand.
This is a poll in January 2025 showing mega-splittage and Reform doing very well. A map with an awful lot of purple on it. Now extend the trend forward and think what could be the same poll in 12 months time. Or 24 months...
The far right are on the march and are going to take some stopping, esp with Trump/Musk rolling the pitch. Can we avoid going that way here? Hope so, think so, but I am anxious about it. You think this sort of stuff can't gain critical mass in the UK until, oh, it has and it's here. Then what.
Probably the best way of stopping the far right is to stop calling everyone who disagrees with 'you' far right, then maybe some of that anxiety might dissipate.
He isn't calling everyone who disagree with him "far right". He's implying Musk and Trump are far right.
Musk has called for military force to overthrow the democratically-elected government and the immediate release of a violent repeat offender who led the English Defence League. There are also the tweets where Musk endorsed a Holocaust denier and where he said Jews were conspiring to flood the US with immigrants. If that's not far right, what is?
Trump has said he will deport US citizens, which would be in contravention of the US Constitution. He has spread conspiracy theories about immigrants. He is threatening to invade several countries because he wants their land. He encouraged a violent riot to try to overturn a democratic election 4 years ago. Again, seems pretty far right to me.
Stalin did all of that too.
It’s not “far right” it’s authoritarian / populist
It seems the far right has become the scarlet pimpernel of right wing politics. Nowhere to be seen. No siree. That is not in fact a spade, it’s a giant trowel.
Not at all. It clearly existed - the likes of the BNP/EDL/Tommy Robinson fall into that category. I don’t know enough about AfD but quite likely as well.
But it’s a much overused term of abuse - and that diluted the impact. There are no “far right” Tory MPs for example. Reform as a party is not “far right” (although I’m more inclined to believe it has some far right members).
It's both more diffuse and extensive than that, I think. Far Right talking points, from the BNP and EDL era around Nick Griffin time and in other organisations, are everywhere soaking into the edges of the Conservative Party and in the fringe (Reform) Right.
And it is around a rolling series of issues over a along time - young men committing crime, lack of assimilation, too many immigrant babies as they breed too much, alien values, small boats, 'they don't follow our values', them wanting to assimilate us, comparisons between OK and Not OK immigrants, and so on.
And there's a similar rhetoric around stirring up the British population - a prominent example being "I want my country back" endlessly used by my Reform MP, even when he defected in the first place. Such a slogan has a lot of demonising in it - someone has 'taken my country away', and must be tackled.
There's a stereotyping of a cardboard cut out version of Islam in particular, and a use of allegations of violent crime such as stabbings. and the wearing of hijab / niqab, incorporated in broader rhetoric around "Muslims" (eg in summary Newspaper headlines) to demonise the entire community. It's the warp and weft of the process sometimes called "othering". In Mosley's time it was a similar process, but around Jewish people.
The common feature is a wedge narrative around race, being used by both some on the Conservative Right and Reform - which is mainstreaming values and rhetoric characteristic of the Far Right.
It's not that far from the Conservative Monday Club, formed in opposition to the ending of White Rule in Rhodesia - so this re-emergence of racist rhetoric is not perhaps surprising, though maybe unexpected. The philosophical base as far as I can see is a turning to a less thoroughgoing version of USA-type "Christian nationalism".
Yaxley-Lennon supporters are all over Reform media spaces, numbers of them proclaiming that they are members. And the racist commentary drips in from some USA based accounts, and British Far Right accounts, compered by Elon Musk.
One of Farage's possible problems for the Local Elections is once again going to be around candidates with extreme views. His vetting system is going to need to be bloody good.
Allison Pearson's Telegraph column today is littered with tropes from the BNP / EDL era, but @TSE has made clear that we do not address that sub-topic directly, so I won't. But nor do i need to to show the values soaking in from the Far Right.
And on gas 43% tonight (on one of the highest demand nights of the entire year). Thats currently 17gw, and wind is 13gw - about 55% of its theoretical max output.
The current development pipeline for offshore and onshore wind power is 77gw and 43gw respectively. Not all of this will be built and up and running by 2030 of course, but take just half of that, and run it at 50% loading, and that’s 27gw. So actually, today we’d probably be 100% zero carbon.
There will still be much stiller days than today, but I’m not sure people grasp the sheer scale of generation that has come on stream in the last decade and is planned to come on in the next. On top of any CCGT capacity that’s already there. We are adding to our power generation massively, yet somehow people seem to see this perversely as leading to less electricity.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
I would argue that like the WFP many of these subsidies are going to the well off who can afford to pay for them, so maybe all these subsidies should be means tested
The vast majority of EVs and heat pumps are outside most people budgets, so frankly it is a bung that we cannot afford
Same applies to insulation and solar panels
I have both, plus a new A rated gas boiler and I paid for all of them without any help from my fellow taxpayers
These are questions that should be asked
It's hard to argue too much with heat pumps: they're amazingly efficient systems compared to what they replaced. Our electricity bill dropped by more than a third when we got rid of our old air conditioning units and replaced them with heat pumps. That they also heat efficiently is just a bonus.
The problem in the UK is that existing housing stock is not suited for heat pumps at all. We had a quote for our place, we were quoted tens of thousands for all of the necessary changes to the property plus the heat pump itself. We both decided it wasn't worth the hassle and we'll just hold onto our gas boiler until it craps out then switch to a three phase electric boiler.
Ed Miliband remains the most dangerous man in the country.
How many billions are being paid to subsidise EVs, heat pumps, and insulation?
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
All three reduce total energy usage. You can quibble with EVs and heat pumps on the basis the grid isn’t ready. Though oddly enough those who say the grid isn’t ready also seem to say we should stop investing in new renewable generation. Which would make it even less ready.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
Of course there is, in a universe where it isn't value for money.
If it costs a hundred million over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a billion to generate over the same timescale then it is worthwhile.
If it cost a billion over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a hundred million to generate over the same timescale then it is not worthwhile.
We all know from personal experience (and you must know, living in a modern and presumably very well insulated house) that every investment in insulation, boring as it may be, pays off many times over. Same as double and triple glazing. It is just about the most cost effective thing we can do as a country to reduce demand. And it saves the household money they can spend on other things.
Well, not if the spray foam in their loft has made the house unmortgagable
My son in laws parents had their roof spray foamed and it failed every survey until they reduced their price by £25,000 for a new roof to be installed by the new owners
It is deadly if it isn't done by an approved and qualified installer
Comments
That said, my more knowledgeable colleagues who advise on this stuff are sceptical it’s the way to go.
The linked question is how much of the year we would need gas to run after an economically plausible maxing out of solar and wind. Grey/still days are inevitable, but how many happen in a "bad" year? Also- what are the capital vs. running costs like for CCS? The less gas is burnt, the less a priority for CCS it feels (over, say, cement).
https://rosenbaum.org.uk/why-johnson-said-charlotte-owen-should-get-a-peerage/
As predicted, the FOI request tells us only how Boris justified his choice, and not why he made it. A damp squib.
Europe has done a much better job at this than we have. Germany has 255 TWh of natural gas storage; Italy has around 200. The UK has about 30 TWh.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Aeby
...On July 16, 1945, Aeby took the only well-exposed color photograph of the first detonation of a nuclear weapon at the Trinity nuclear test site in New Mexico.[2][3]
While color motion pictures of the Trinity test were made, most were badly overexposed or damaged due to the fireball's tendency to blister and solarize the film. Aeby was a civilian assigned to the Physics Group 5 with Emilio Segrè and Owen Chamberlain at the time his snapshot was taken...
...Aeby was not an official observer at the test site, but was invited along to take informal photos of the work, which he had commonly done since he arrived at Los Alamos. He says he took the photos of the blast on a whim, "it was there so I shot it". He took the film, a non-standard piece of Ansochrome movie stock film, out of the camera that night at a local photo lab, and worked it through the 21 step procedure for color film developing. Later on, Los Alamos management asked him if they could keep the original negative "for safe keeping". It has since been lost...
The MAGA outriders and lunatics are gearing up, high on power. Joe Rogan says that the U.S. "should go right into Mexico. Meanwhile there seem to be retaliatory rumblings from Canada, about steel and other tariffs.
“Mate, can you pop this HISTORICAL RECORD OF ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN HUMAN HISTORY in your pocket and look after it please?”
The UK government should have gone with tidal over Hinkley Point C. The issue is that we really don't need two large baseload power sources, and we have already committed to overpaying for HPC. (And - by the way - we're shortly going to get stiffed when they ask for an even higher strike price for the electricity, which sadly is necessary due to cost overruns, and we do want the project to be finished, right?)
But Soju on it own is dangerous - very deceptive and catches up with you very quickly
(edit - weird brain moment. I thought a spring tide was called a king).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/09/rachel-reeves-cuts-public-services-borrowing-costs-tax?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
I wish them well with all this, and I think they are one of the most civilised places anywhere.
The big variation in tidal range (and therefore power generation) over a month though, makes it less suitable as base load, as the storage (or alternate generation) needed to smooth that out is a much bigger multiple of daily generation.
But it’s a much overused term of abuse - and that diluted the impact. There are no “far right” Tory MPs for example. Reform as a party is not “far right” (although I’m more inclined to believe it has some far right members).
The US (or parts of it) is notorious for brownouts because of its weirdly isolated state grids, with some states being complete islands with no interconnectors. Apparently 1 in 4 US households experience a power outage each year.
I'm not complaining about how it's reported, I'm complaining about i) the fact of its existence, and ii) the £2X billion spent on it. It's a stupid idea, it doesn't work, I don't want to spend money on making it work, because everything it does can be done better and cheaper by other methods, and spending such a staggering sum on it is appalling.
The only people or groups Starmer has referred to as far right have been race rioters, the EDL and those inciting them online during the summer, and [redacted billionaire] during [redacted], both of which based on public statements are reasonable descriptions.
Starmer has of course been described as far left by various MAGA spokespeople repeatedly (but then so was Kamala).
Feel free to blame Clegg for going cold on nuclear in the coalition (but equally praise Davey for the huge amount of wind capacity brought on stream), but blaming anyone in Labour for this sort of thing is a little daft.
I've said this before, I'm shocked as to how little homework Labour did in the run up to the election. They really seem to have thought that by not being the Tories they could magic up £150bn in additional corporate investment to fire up the economy. I really don't think they realised that raising taxes on businesses would tank economic growth because their utterances about going for growth but then also putting up NI by such a huge amount is diametrically opposed. It is the single most destructive tax on jobs and investment as companies claw back additional costs.
Have they spent the £20bn on the NHS now? No idea. Have they hinted at any legislation on their 8-point plan? Or was it the five missions? Or 9 wishes? Or.... something? In any case - no idea.
Such a shame that the government with a majority which could have transformed the country (whether you agree with their direction or not) seems to just be squandering it entirely.
"Come on, Tim Keir!"
Reforms ascent may well continue, but also the trend across the west is towards right wing governments with only Starmer trying to stem the tide like Canute
I expect depressing times ahead for Labour and their supporters
A full bottle between us in one night of increasingly bleary 'Meh'.
*Boy* were the next few days and nights a blur of pain.
Did one come?
In that sense Trump is perhaps more a tyrant without an ideology.
One interesting note I have seen today is on Elon Musk moving family (and staff?) into a house on the Mar-a-Lago estate. That is getting close to the icon of power.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elon-musk-donald-trump-mar-a-lago-b2671753.html
There was a time soon after the Election when all of the Trump hangers on were around Mar-a-Lago likes bees to a honeypot, reminding the "Boss" of their presence to get their piece of flesh whilst he was reminded of them.
I'm still gong with a Great Leader and Associates plus Oligarchs, with the manipulated State at their service, model for my idea of the new Trump regime, and that being closest (apart from that voters were involved) to something like Venezuela or maybe Thailand.
We will see something like the remaining uncorrupted aspects of the Judiciary trying to slow him down, as it was the Judiciary system which has often resisted African tyrants. The former Archbishop of York, John Sentamu, was imprisoned by Idi Amin for 3 months, and physically beaten up when he was a High Court Advocate then Judge in 1974.
The rush to 2030 is unsustainable and extending the transition period is inevitable
I'm very environmental and yet that does not make sense.
The only concrete things I think I can remember is £20bn for the NHS and fiddling about with local government tiers.
Just squandering a majority of a billionty seats seems like such a terribly sad missed opportunity. Maybe they are genuinely surprised that running a country is a tad tricky. In which case.... wtf?
He's a complicated Zionist
https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-insurance-coverage-cancellation-no-payout-2025-1
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts [on the grooming story] and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
When they've done something it's been bad to absolutely terrible and in most cases, such as the money for the NHS, it's not actually been outlined what the extra money will specifically deliver so people won't actually know how they've benefited from it.
But insulation? It reduces waste. It reduces all domestic energy usage, whether electric or gas. There is no universe where more insulation isn’t a good thing.
The rise of Reform may be bad for Labour. I certainly think it's bad for the country.
But it's a matter of life and death for the Conservatives. And at the moment, Conservatives don't seem to realise that following the talking points of the new right bubble (I hope that's neutral enough, it's not just That Thing) strengthens Reform at the Conservatives' expense.
I believe you should act from now on on anyone ignoring your warning and you will have the support of the vast majority of us
https://bsky.app/profile/shockatadam.bsky.social/post/3lfdcd5zjzk2f
Did you really intend to ban discussion of PMQs on PB?
(hides under table)
That’s how every major project works - and boy is this a major project, it’s about contributing towards averting global catastrophe.
If we were expecting a Russian invasion of Britain by 2030 then you can be sure there’d be a hell of a lot more urgency about doing something than there is about curbing emissions.
If it costs a hundred million over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a billion to generate over the same timescale then it is worthwhile.
If it cost a billion over the lifetime of an investment to reduce waste which would cost us a hundred million to generate over the same timescale then it is not worthwhile.
Trump is on the verge of having a net-positive favorable rating -- something he never had in his first term.
We have to trust the guys who run this site - taking up lots of their valuable time - to make the right calls on all this.
We owe them a lot. Seems a small price to trust them on the OSA and this particular issue.
Put simply, this is not Get-the-Tories-Out again. The next election doesn't look like it will fit the two-camps model and 2019 might be a better parallel where there was a Stop-Corbyn effect but there was no equivalent Stop-Brexit / Stop-Johnson vote because Corbyn was too toxic to centrist/centre-right Remainers.
The vast majority of EVs and heat pumps are outside most people budgets, so frankly it is a bung that we cannot afford
Same applies to insulation and solar panels
I have both, plus a new A rated gas boiler and I paid for all of them without any help from my fellow taxpayers
These are questions that should be asked
A great many insulation investments are a good idea, especially eg glazing. However that does not mean that every such possible investment is.
And it is around a rolling series of issues over a along time - young men committing crime, lack of assimilation, too many immigrant babies as they breed too much, alien values, small boats, 'they don't follow our values', them wanting to assimilate us, comparisons between OK and Not OK immigrants, and so on.
And there's a similar rhetoric around stirring up the British population - a prominent example being "I want my country back" endlessly used by my Reform MP, even when he defected in the first place. Such a slogan has a lot of demonising in it - someone has 'taken my country away', and must be tackled.
There's a stereotyping of a cardboard cut out version of Islam in particular, and a use of allegations of violent crime such as stabbings. and the wearing of hijab / niqab, incorporated in broader rhetoric around "Muslims" (eg in summary Newspaper headlines) to demonise the entire community. It's the warp and weft of the process sometimes called "othering". In Mosley's time it was a similar process, but around Jewish people.
The common feature is a wedge narrative around race, being used by both some on the Conservative Right and Reform - which is mainstreaming values and rhetoric characteristic of the Far Right.
It's not that far from the Conservative Monday Club, formed in opposition to the ending of White Rule in Rhodesia - so this re-emergence of racist rhetoric is not perhaps surprising, though maybe unexpected. The philosophical base as far as I can see is a turning to a less thoroughgoing version of USA-type "Christian nationalism".
Yaxley-Lennon supporters are all over Reform media spaces, numbers of them proclaiming that they are members. And the racist commentary drips in from some USA based accounts, and British Far Right accounts, compered by Elon Musk.
One of Farage's possible problems for the Local Elections is once again going to be around candidates with extreme views. His vetting system is going to need to be bloody good.
Allison Pearson's Telegraph column today is littered with tropes from the BNP / EDL era, but @TSE has made clear that we do not address that sub-topic directly, so I won't. But nor do i need to to show the values soaking in from the Far Right.
The current development pipeline for offshore and onshore wind power is 77gw and 43gw respectively. Not all of this will be built and up and running by 2030 of course, but take just half of that, and run it at 50% loading, and that’s 27gw. So actually, today we’d probably be 100% zero carbon.
There will still be much stiller days than today, but I’m not sure people grasp the sheer scale of generation that has come on stream in the last decade and is planned to come on in the next. On top of any CCGT capacity that’s already there. We are adding to our power generation massively, yet somehow people seem to see this perversely as leading to less electricity.
It is deadly if it isn't done by an approved and qualified installer