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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    ...

    I would be outraged if I were William Glenn and I had been missed off that list.
    William is never hysterical or intemperate, but also never makes valid points. As far as I can tell he is openly in favour of some kind of totalitarian rule.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093

    If he had said this about the Tories we'd never hear the end of it on here.
    I hope you note that I am criticising him about it. I hope I'd do it about any UK politician subjected to such unwarranted comments...?

    The sad thing is that people still seem to worship him. Any good he's done in the past is far outweighed by the stuff he's done over the last five or so years. And he's getting worse.
  • I hope you note that I am criticising him about it. I hope I'd do it about any UK politician subjected to such unwarranted comments...?

    The sad thing is that people still seem to worship him. Any good he's done in the past is far outweighed by the stuff he's done over the last five or so years. And he's getting worse.
    I did very well out of my Tesla stock but I sold it when he started going down the rabbit hole.

    He's been totally and inescapably radicalised. Which is not great - but he's now able to make millions of people see this bile.

    I just don't know what we do about it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    moonshine said:

    Heard it all now. Wanting to damage the most left wing PM of my lifetime means you are far right.
    We’re not far from ‘Everyone who disagrees with me is Hitler’ on this.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    I did very well out of my Tesla stock but I sold it when he started going down the rabbit hole.

    He's been totally and inescapably radicalised. Which is not great - but he's now able to make millions of people see this bile.

    I just don't know what we do about it.
    We regulate social media is what we do.

    The very rich are often quite insane - to be a billionaire is not the normal condition for a human - but what’s frighteningly new is the ability via Twitter/X to destabilise a democratically elected government.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,357
    MaxPB said:

    Which is fair, what's very worrying is that Europe (and I include Labour's UK in this) is become a retirement home for people who have found success elsewhere in the world because it is now actively hostile to wealth creation. The welfare states across Europe have created an entitlement culture and people think they are owed wealth transfers from successful people whether that's directly in the form of cash benefits or indirectly in the form of healthcare/education/state employment etc...

    I don't know what the solution to this is, but the entitlement culture across Europe is bankrupting the continent, the UK included and it's become a negative spiral as we're having to increase tax to pay for it which further harms economic growth and the tax base and eventually we turn into Argentina.
    Argentina isn't the plausible end point for European economies. The main causes of Argentina's economic decline were protectionist trade policies, a tolerance of high inflation, and a highly polarized society that led to alternating periods of populism and dictatorship. There was also excessive government intervention but to an extent that makes the EU look like a laissez-faire paradise. Meanwhile, the EU champions free trade internally and (to a lesser extent) externally, has a consensual and democratic governance model, and an independent central bank committed to low inflation. I would say that the US is more likely to end up like Argentina, if the Trump administration turns out to be the start of a process rather than an aberration. Us too, if Trumpian ideas gain a toehold here.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Taz said:

    We’re not far from ‘Everyone who disagrees with me is Hitler’ on this.
    The original poster said nothing of the sort.
    Get a grip.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    moonshine said:

    Heard it all now. Wanting to damage the most left wing PM of my lifetime means you are far right.
    "Wanting to damage..."

    So you are willing to use lies and mistruths (such as Musk's tweet below) just so you can damage someone you don't like?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I agree with all of this.
    As ever the refrain I hear from American business people is very true - America innovated and Europe regulates. I think without the UK in the EU it's worse than ever, the regulations are stifling for EU companies now that there's no significant free market voice at the top table. I'm extremely worried that Starmer will sell out the nation to the EU which I hope that the next government will just undo on day one.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    Yes, absolutely.
    How would you regulate it?

    It’s the great question confronting democracies at present. Nobody seems anywhere near defining a regime which manages to reduce the real harms of social media.


    Economics.

    The issue is that the algorithm drives people towards extreme perspectives. That’s the problem rather than simply the normal rough and tumble of people posting crap. If it wasn’t amplified the most people wouldn’t see it.

    So eliminate the economic incentive (people engage more with stuff that makes them angry and engagement drives usage drives advertising dollars).

    Regulate it like a utility with a fixed return on capital employed. (And for the avoidance of doubt capital employed is not the same as Musk’s purchase price)


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    MaxPB said:

    As ever the refrain I hear from American business people is very true - America innovated and Europe regulates. I think without the UK in the EU it's worse than ever, the regulations are stifling for EU companies now that there's no significant free market voice at the top table. I'm extremely worried that Starmer will sell out the nation to the EU which I hope that the next government will just undo on day one.
    Beware of Americans high on their own supply!

    Americans have never been entirely and increasingly are less (see OnlyLivingBoy’s post) “free market”.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,948

    Musky Baby's latest missive:

    "Because Starmer is guilty of terrible crimes against the British people"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875525668227936392

    Musk is an absolute fuckwit, and a danger to the civilised world.

    Nigel and Kemi need to reign Elon in over all this. (There are stories afoot that they're already trying.) It's so OTT that I can see Labour getting a polling boost as hitherto neutrals rally around Sir Keir in an act of solidarity.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    Yes but how on Earth do you police what algorithms are being used without looking at the source code. It's a non-starter.
    Economics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited January 4

    Nigel and Kemi need to reign Elon in over all this. (There are stories afoot that they're already trying.) It's so OTT that I can see Labour getting a polling boost as hitherto neutrals rally around Sir Keir in an act of solidarity.
    I doubt it, most of the voters who have switched from Labour to Reform since last July are white working class Leavers who largely agree with much of what Musk says.

    It might switch a few middle class ex Conservative Reform voters back to the Tories though if Farage gets too close to Musk and Robinson, hence Farage trying to distance himself now
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Beware of Americans high on their own supply!

    Americans have never been entirely and increasingly are less (see OnlyLivingBoy’s post) “free market”.
    My experience of this is in finance and AI, two areas where the US approach has been significantly better than the EU approach. The EU has completely destroyed AI development across Europe, the rats have all left the sinking ship and come to the UK or gone over to the US. In finance their regulatory "innovations" have been counterproductive at every turn and made Europe less competitive. Our own regulations are also pretty awful as well so there's no triumphalism here just pointing out that I don't think there's any chance if what OLB saying actually happening. The US economy has an innate ability to right itself and bring in necessary talent and create wealth.

    I think the best way I can put it is that in the US the government wants people to create wealth so they create jobs, across Europe governments want people to create wealth so they can tax it and pay for the NHS etc...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    David Starkey's analysis of Rachel Reeves on Youtube is well worth half an hour. Might not be to everyone's taste but I find his arguments interesting and for the main part convincing. Certainly more convincing than anything she herself has said, or Starmer for that matter.

    The truth is David Lammy is not the most stupid member of the government front bench, not by a long chalk.

    Reeves had some great tutors - Chris Alsopp and Dieter Helm.

    She’s not stupid. Just conventional and unimaginative
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    Reeves had some great tutors - Chris Alsopp and Dieter Helm.

    She’s not stupid. Just conventional and unimaginative
    And totally shit
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,948
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt it, most of the voters who have switched from Labour to Reform since July are white working class Leavers who largely agree with what much of Musk says.

    It might switch a few middle class ex Conservative Reform voters back to the Tories though if Farage gets too close to Musk and Robinson, hence Farage trying to distance himself now
    I was thinking more of the Starmer-sceptic centrists and general Don't Knows. On a forced choice, such people would probably side with 'our chap' Starmer over the bullying, ranting Musk.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573
    Barnesian said:

    Multiculturalism isn't just about immigrants. A lot of it is homegrown. Look at the cultures of Reform people verus LibDem people.

    The model for monoculturalism is China, as the Tibetans and Uyghurs well know.

    The upside is that there isn't the tension of "others" or any affront to ones culture. It's one big happy family with common values, in theory.

    The downside is the loss of diversity of
    outlooks, of innovation, and also of the basic freedom to not conform and behave as you want as long as you don't harm others. (Harm is not the same as offend).

    The Chinese model is working well, but at a cost. There are pros and cons.
    The Chinese model is not a melting point (well maybe literally…)

    It’s the imposition of Han culture on others.

    The melting point approach is the optimal - take the best and emerge stronger.

    Britain today is far better as a result of the Huguenots, the various waves of Jewish immigrants, the Normans, etc.

    Everyone except the Romans. After all, what have the Romans ever done for us?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    The EU was - on balance - a healthier place for the UK economy, and within that, the UK was largely free to pursue its own distinct economic model as a services-based, debtor nation with a social security and tax regime somewhere between the French/German model and the U.S. one.

    So I don’t disagree with anything you’re saying, except the suggestion that my move to the U.S. implicitly supports the idea that the EU was economically sub-optimal for the UK.

    The issue was always the politics, not the economics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Marco Longhi, Conservative MP for Dudley North from 2019-24, has defected to ReformUK
    https://x.com/marcolonghi4dn/status/1875467255955255434
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686

    The Chinese model is not a melting point (well maybe literally…)

    It’s the imposition of Han culture on others.

    The melting point approach is the optimal - take the best and emerge stronger.

    Britain today is far better as a result of the Huguenots, the various waves of Jewish immigrants, the Normans, etc.

    Everyone except the Romans. After all, what have the Romans ever done for us?
    The - Normans?
    The Normans were the biggest disaster to hit the people of the British Isles since the Romans!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410
    edited January 4
    https://youtu.be/vnFV4yeT2MQ?si=g0Ed9cFdpG1pc3Ac

    Barn-storming speech by Zia Yusuf at the Reform Conference. Nigel is a very good speaker, but I'm happy to take his speech as read - I was far keener to see Yusuf's, and it really should be watched by anyone who thinks Reform are a flash in the pan, a vehicle for Nigel's ego, or indeed a bunch of golf club racists.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    The original poster said nothing of the sort.
    Get a grip.
    I didn’t say we were there yet.

    However labelling mainstream politics/politicians as Far Right or Fascist I find absurd and it is a step away from that.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    MaxPB said:

    My experience of this is in finance and AI, two areas where the US approach has been significantly better than the EU approach. The EU has completely destroyed AI development across Europe, the rats have all left the sinking ship and come to the UK or gone over to the US. In finance their regulatory "innovations" have been counterproductive at every turn and made Europe less competitive. Our own regulations are also pretty awful as well so there's no triumphalism here just pointing out that I don't think there's any chance if what OLB saying actually happening. The US economy has an innate ability to right itself and bring in necessary talent and create wealth.

    I think the best way I can put it is that in the US the government wants people to create wealth so they create jobs, across Europe governments want people to create wealth so they can tax it and pay for the NHS etc...
    I think the “government” tends towards regulation wherever they are.

    What’s different in the U.S. is cultural (the pie is always getting bigger), the VC ecosystem, the Silicon Valley ecosystem, inter-state competition, the vast size of the market, a willingness by the state to invest in certain sectors (usually defence), and cheap energy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    Cookie said:

    The - Normans?
    The Normans were the biggest disaster to hit the people of the British Isles since the Romans!
    Being invaded is very very rarely a positive.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517

    I'm sure it was, when alive.
    There's a warning for Vegans there:

    "On severely overpopulated and depleted ranges, white-tailed deer have starved to death with their stomachs full of low quality forages."

    https://www.msudeer.msstate.edu/deer-diet.php
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    Beware of Americans high on their own supply!

    Americans have never been entirely and increasingly are less (see OnlyLivingBoy’s post) “free market”.
    The US is not at all shareholder friendly - the UK is the most shareholder friendly country.

    The US is controlled by management interests
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    The issue was always the politics, not the economics
    The issue was immigration.
    Maybe not your issue, but that was the ultimate thing that carried the vote.

    As for the economics, plenty argued for Brexit on those grounds, and astonishingly many still do.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,948
    HYUFD said:

    Marco Longhi, Conservative MP for Dudley North from 2019-24, has defected to ReformUK
    https://x.com/marcolonghi4dn/status/1875467255955255434

    From my perspective, this is literally the only news-worthy thing he's ever done.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,666
    moonshine said:

    Heard it all now. Wanting to damage the most left wing PM of my lifetime means you are far right.
    Unless you're very young, I'd question whether Starmer was to the left of Gordon Brown.

    Does Musk issue dozens of tweets every day, and just occasionally takes a potshot at Starmer that we notice? Or is he for some reason really interested in the UK?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    Taz said:

    Didn’t DougSeal, a man not averse to dishing it out and I remember him being most rude to me when I commented on an equal pay ruling - what a prick, have a hissy fit at you over something you said which seemed a little innocuous.

    One of those things that escalated quickly. Sometimes these do over a simple misunderstanding by one party.

    He seemed to get really upset. Really upset.
    DougSeal was a specialist employment lawyer iirc so probably knew what he was talking about re equal pay rulings.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Taz said:

    I didn’t say we were there yet.

    However labelling mainstream politics/politicians as Far Right or Fascist I find absurd and it is a step away from that.
    The OP was about Elon Musk.
    Is he a mainstream politician now?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    a

    The Chinese model is not a melting point (well maybe literally…)

    It’s the imposition of Han culture on others.

    The melting point approach is the optimal - take the best and emerge stronger.

    Britain today is far better as a result of the Huguenots, the various waves of Jewish immigrants, the Normans, etc.

    Everyone except the Romans. After all, what have the Romans ever done for us?
    It’s also a plastic, fake version of Han culture.

    Imagine the version of U.K. history that someone on the dippy end of the Reform voter pool would really like. That’s the style of history that the Chinese government is selling
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    DougSeal was a specialist employment lawyer iirc so probably knew what he was talking about re equal pay rulings.
    Taz often posts absolute nonsense and gets riled when called upon it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    And totally shit
    She could ‘surprise on the upside’ 👍
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    From my perspective, this is literally the only news-worthy thing he's ever done.
    Probably even true from Mrs Longhi’s perspective.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,384

    The Chinese model is not a melting point (well maybe literally…)

    It’s the imposition of Han culture on others.

    The melting point approach is the optimal - take the best and emerge stronger.

    Britain today is far better as a result of the Huguenots, the various waves of Jewish immigrants, the Normans, etc.

    Everyone except the Romans. After all, what have the Romans ever done for us?
    It's one of this great 'what if's' isn't it! What if William the Bastard had lost at Hastings and been driven back into the sea.
    Secondly, of course, if he'd lived, would he have tried again?

    But if the Norman Conquest hadn't happened, then England would have been more like the Scandinavian countries.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    DougSeal was a specialist employment lawyer iirc so probably knew what he was talking about re equal pay rulings.
    I’m well aware of that and I don’t doubt his knowledge.

    However there is no need to be such a condescending asshole when making that point, is there ?

    Berating me for not seeing posts on PB previously about it. 🤷‍♂️
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    ohnotnow said:

    "Panto"?
    They put the pant into panto.
    Or it pants?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157

    Unless you're very young, I'd question whether Starmer was to the left of Gordon Brown.

    Does Musk issue dozens of tweets every day, and just occasionally takes a potshot at Starmer that we notice? Or is he for some reason really interested in the UK?
    I like the theory that the drugs are kippering his sleep patterns and UK TwiX is awake when he's suffering from night demons.

    But seriously. Some of his friends need to stage an Intervention, because right now he is an excellent warning for the way that social media rots your mind.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093

    Unless you're very young, I'd question whether Starmer was to the left of Gordon Brown.

    Does Musk issue dozens of tweets every day, and just occasionally takes a potshot at Starmer that we notice? Or is he for some reason really interested in the UK?
    He's only shown a real interest in the UK since about July, oddly enough. It's almost as though something has changed. In recent weeks, he's been totally obsessed with doing down Britain.

    There are various possible reasons and motivations for his misbehaviour, varying from the stupid to the downright malicious. I'm not a fan of Starmer, but my goodness, Musk and his fanbois are going far beyond any reasonable criticism.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Taz often posts absolute nonsense and gets riled when called upon it.
    I’m quite happy to be corrected about it, I’m not too keen on the way he did it which was my issue.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    edited January 4

    The OP was about Elon Musk.
    Is he a mainstream politician now?
    It was about Musk and his fanbase, not just Musk therefore.

    I said politics/politicians, not just politicians.

    There’s a lot of stupid labelling of fascist that goes on which really doesn’t apply. It’s like Rick in the young ones.

    😉
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390

    The Chinese model is not a melting point (well maybe literally…)

    It’s the imposition of Han culture on others.

    The melting point approach is the optimal - take the best and emerge stronger.

    Britain today is far better as a result of the Huguenots, the various waves of Jewish immigrants, the Normans, etc.

    Everyone except the Romans. After all, what have the Romans ever done for us?
    Pot, not Point. (to be picky)

    I think the approach is to take everyone and emerge stronger. Who can tell who the best are after all?

    Not that I'd wish troubles on anyone there is too an element of the Darwinism in this. The good people do well and the less good, less so.

    I think it's vitally important that we retain a certain snobbery against the French (just for the hell of it), but otherwise I agree.



  • Is @DougSeal banned? He was one of the best posters, I hope he will be allowed back.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    I like the theory that the drugs are kippering his sleep patterns and UK TwiX is awake when he's suffering from night demons.

    But seriously. Some of his friends need to stage an Intervention, because right now he is an excellent warning for the way that social media rots your mind.
    He’s always been a night owl.

    Pretty common in Silicon Valley, and startup culture as well.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The US is not at all shareholder friendly - the UK is the most shareholder friendly country.

    The US is controlled by management interests
    And yet US investors and shareholders took a 24% gain on the S&P in 2024 vs UK shareholders getting 5% on the FTSE100. Maybe, just maybe the regulator has taken things to far and companies that are beholden to shareholders make poor decisions on investment vs cash returns.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Is @DougSeal banned? He was one of the best posters, I hope he will be allowed back.

    Not banned. Flounced after a spat with Leon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited January 4

    Taz often posts absolute nonsense and gets riled when called upon it.
    Benpointer is pretty good at posting absolute nonsense.

    Meanwhile, in other news, here's my competition entry:

    1. Lab 34 Con 32, LD 16, Ref 27
    2. Lab 20, Con 17, LD 6, Ref 8
    3. Reform MPs 9
    4. Tory defectors 4
    5. By-elections 3
    6. Cabinet exits 3
    7. AfD seats 121
    8. CPI 1.5%
    9. Borrowing £115bn
    10. UK growth 2.4%
    11. US growth 3.6%
    12. EU growth 1.3%
    13. USD/RUB 240
    14. Ashes Aus 1 - Eng 2

    Edit: posting early to avoid accusations of taking the average of other entries ;-)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    Unless you're very young, I'd question whether Starmer was to the left of Gordon Brown.

    Does Musk issue dozens of tweets every day, and just occasionally takes a potshot at Starmer that we notice? Or is he for some reason really interested in the UK?
    Would you question why Biden was interested in Ireland? It seems natural for people of British descent to question what is becoming of the mother country.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390

    Benpointer is pretty good at posting absolute nonsense.

    Meanwhile, in other news, here's my competition entry:

    1. Lab 34 Con 32, LD 16, Ref 27
    2. Lab 20, Con 17, LD 6, Ref 8
    3. Reform MPs 9
    4. Tory defectors 4
    5. By-elections 3
    6. Cabinet exits 3
    7. AfD seats 121
    8. CPI 1.5%
    9. Borrowing £115bn
    10. UK growth 2.4%
    11. US growth 3.6%
    12. EU growth 1.3%
    13. USD/RUB 240
    14. Ashes Aus 1 - Eng 2
    Wooooo! 240!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,306

    Is @DougSeal banned? He was one of the best posters, I hope he will be allowed back.

    You can check if they are banned by looking on their profile.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573
    Cookie said:

    The - Normans?
    The Normans were the biggest disaster to hit the people of the British Isles since the Romans!
    Not if you were Norman…
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517

    Benpointer is pretty good at posting absolute nonsense.

    Meanwhile, in other news, here's my competition entry:

    1. Lab 34 Con 32, LD 16, Ref 27
    2. Lab 20, Con 17, LD 6, Ref 8
    3. Reform MPs 9
    4. Tory defectors 4
    5. By-elections 3
    6. Cabinet exits 3
    7. AfD seats 121
    8. CPI 1.5%
    9. Borrowing £115bn
    10. UK growth 2.4%
    11. US growth 3.6%
    12. EU growth 1.3%
    13. USD/RUB 240
    14. Ashes Aus 1 - Eng 2

    Edit: posting early to avoid accusations of taking the average of other entries ;-)
    Thinking of doing the opposite: making unlikely choices. So I'm unlikely to win, but if I do I'll seem like a genius.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Omnium said:

    Wooooo! 240!
    Yeah meltdown!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    edited January 4

    Would you question why Biden was interested in Ireland? It seems natural for people of British descent to question what is becoming of the mother country.
    This is not Musk's 'mother country'. He has shown very little interest in the UK in the past, and has not invested heavily in this country.

    You cannot say the same about Trump, for instance.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    Competition:

    Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    L 30 C 28 LD 15 R 35

    Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    L 18 C 17 LD 5 R 20

    Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.
    6

    Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.
    2

    Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.
    3

    Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.
    2

    Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.
    152

    UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).
    3.6%

    UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).
    £167bn

    UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).
    1.0%

    US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).
    2.5%

    EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).
    1.5%

    USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).
    150

    The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2).
    Aus 4-1
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,573

    The issue was immigration.
    Maybe not your issue, but that was the ultimate thing that carried the vote.


    As for the economics, plenty argued for Brexit on those grounds, and astonishingly many still do.
    I’d include that within politics (as opposed to a pure economic/trading bloc)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    Not if you were Norman…
    "Mr. Grimsdale!!"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 4
    carnforth said:

    There's a warning for Vegans there:

    "On severely overpopulated and depleted ranges, white-tailed deer have starved to death with their stomachs full of low quality forages."

    https://www.msudeer.msstate.edu/deer-diet.php
    That's because there aren't enough predators. So eat your vegan deer and save the countryside.

    Was reading the memoirs of the deer keeper of Richmond Park the other day. It's a huge job culling the deer - they need to kill something approaching a third a year just to keep them in reasonable density. But at least there is a market on the doorstep.

    [I think it was 30% at least some years, which might seen large foir an animal which breeds only once a year, but just leave them for a few years and see what happens ...]
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    This is not Musk's 'mother country'. He has shown very little interest in the UK in the past, and has not invested heavily in this country.

    You cannot say the same about Trump, for instance.
    Musk describes himself as ethnically English.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1373490182117224448
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390

    Yeah meltdown!
    Well that'd be great if it happens. (Of course if they stop the daft war, and even better send the nasty little man to the Hague then I'll be hoping that they don't have an economic collapse)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733
    HYUFD said:

    Marco Longhi, Conservative MP for Dudley North from 2019-24, has defected to ReformUK
    https://x.com/marcolonghi4dn/status/1875467255955255434

    Bloody hell, that's really going to shake up British politics.
    Who is he again?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798

    The special relationship is surely more important in a world where the US is reshaping the global order.
    Only if you think Britain being subservient to that world order is more important than the internal good running of the country. Bearing in mind the world order, whatever it is, will happen anyway.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    @Benpointer

    Be interesting to see if the umber of entrants is higher than last year or not. Gives you an idea of the regular users.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    carnforth said:

    Thinking of doing the opposite: making unlikely choices. So I'm unlikely to win, but if I do I'll seem like a genius.
    Could be a cunning plan when 20 points for a closest answer applies.

    I did think about framing my set of answers on an 'apocalypse' basis but in the event of WW3 I'd probably not be around to collect my winnings. Conversely, in the much preferred non-event of an apocalypse I'd be heading for zero points and the wooden spoon.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Carnyx said:

    That's because there aren't enough predators. So eat your vegan deer and save the countryside.

    Was reading the memoirs of the deer keeper of Richmond Park the other day. It's a huge job culling the deer - they need to kill something approaching a third a year just to keep them in reasonable density. But at least there is a market on the doorstep.

    [I think it was 30% at least some years, which might seen large foir an animal which breeds only once a year, but just leave them for a few years and see what happens ...]
    There may not be enough predators for the deer but @Casino_Royale certainly is one of them 😀
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Nigelb said:

    Find people who do, and follow them ?
    Thanks, but I just want to look on X and see if Transport Organization T has posted any warnings about travel problems or whatever the immediate problem is.

    I don't want to follow anyone at all - least of all a long streeam of corporate stuff about the latest charity fundraise, commendable as it is, and the problems of double parking stopping the No 22 bus getting to the shopping centre in outer west Edinburgh ...

    This change in Twitter really has messed it up for the corporate info role and I don't think this has sunk in for a lot of the companies in question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Competition:

    1 Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    L 30 C 28 LD 14 R 25

    2 Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    L 20 C 19 LD 10 R 15

    3 Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.
    5

    4 Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.
    0

    5 Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.
    1

    6 Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.
    1

    7 Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.
    132

    8 UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).
    3.5%

    9 UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).
    £150bn

    10 UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).
    0.5%

    11 US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).
    3%

    12 EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).
    2%

    13 USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).
    130

    14 The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2).
    Aus 3-2
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited January 4
    Taz said:

    @Benpointer

    Be interesting to see if the umber of entrants is higher than last year or not. Gives you an idea of the regular users.

    Yes. 82 entrants last year but it was a big election year.

    11 entrants so far today, so not a bad start.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    FF43 said:

    Only if you think Britain being subservient to that world order is more important than the internal good running of the country. Bearing in mind the world order, whatever it is, will happen anyway.
    Not being subservient to it but shaping it. It is our right as Englishmen to play a full role in the political leadership of the Anglosphere.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    HYUFD said:

    Marco Longhi, Conservative MP for Dudley North from 2019-24, has defected to ReformUK
    https://x.com/marcolonghi4dn/status/1875467255955255434

    As ex MP presumably doesn't affect Prediction #4.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Could be a cunning plan when 20 points for a closest answer applies.

    I did think about framing my set of answers on an 'apocalypse' basis but in the event of WW3 I'd probably not be around to collect my winnings. Conversely, in the much preferred non-event of an apocalypse I'd be heading for zero points and the wooden spoon.
    You could consider the impact of a bird flu epidemic - rather less murderious than WW3 but still pretty shockalyptic.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390

    Musk describes himself as ethnically English.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1373490182117224448
    The thing with Musk is that it's absolutely fine to rant and rave and have all sorts of views. I think with some degree of caution you can do much the same about the politics of another country. He though is in a position where this becomes an issue in that country. He should make it clear that he's a remote observer, and that he ranks below any and all UK voters.

    When Trump throws him out I think he'd make a first class recruit as an immigrant to the UK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Taz said:

    There may not be enough predators for the deer but @Casino_Royale certainly is one of them 😀
    Me too, though it seems to be mostly pheasant at the moment.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Yes. 82 entrants last year but it was a big election year.

    11 entrants so far today, so not a bad start.
    I’m hoping to improve on joint 72nd.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093

    Musk describes himself as ethnically English.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1373490182117224448
    Musk lies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Taz said:

    I didn’t say we were there yet.

    However labelling mainstream politics/politicians as Far Right or Fascist I find absurd and it is a step away from that.
    Do you and Moonshine not sniff a little bit of the far right about Musk then?

    (for it is He I was referring to)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,357

    Yes. 82 entrants last year but it was a big election year.

    11 entrants so far today, so not a bad start.
    I need to look at some spreadsheets before answering!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    This is a good example of the incoherent position the EU has got itself into both on technology and on the idea of 'foreign' interference. Thierry Breton, the French ex-European Commissioner is intervening in the German election to lecture Alice Weidel about appearing in a podcast with Elon Musk.

    https://x.com/thierrybreton/status/1875482430955532694
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    Omnium said:

    The thing with Musk is that it's absolutely fine to rant and rave and have all sorts of views. I think with some degree of caution you can do much the same about the politics of another country. He though is in a position where this becomes an issue in that country. He should make it clear that he's a remote observer, and that he ranks below any and all UK voters.

    When Trump throws him out I think he'd make a first class recruit as an immigrant to the UK.
    Nah, we don't want that sort of immigrant. Pity the poor stewardesses... :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Carnyx said:

    You could consider the impact of a bird flu epidemic - rather less murderious than WW3 but still pretty shockalyptic.
    I was wondering what would happen of Trump lets rip with tariffs, deportations etc... (can't see it happening though).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    Musk lies.
    Musk Derangement Syndrome strikes again.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390
    HYUFD said:

    Competition:

    1 Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    L 30 C 28 LD 14 R 25

    2 Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    L 20 C 19 LD 10 R 15

    3 Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.
    5

    4 Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.
    0

    5 Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.
    1

    6 Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.
    1

    7 Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.
    132

    8 UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).
    3.5%

    9 UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).
    £150bn

    10 UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).
    0.5%

    11 US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).
    3%

    12 EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).
    2%

    13 USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).
    130

    14 The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2).
    Aus 3-2

    I'm very interested that you don't think Braverman will go. She's obviously between a stupid rock and a stupid hard place, but I had pencilled in that she'd be a definite.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093

    This is a good example of the incoherent position the EU has got itself into both on technology and on the idea of 'foreign' interference. Thierry Breton, the French ex-European Commissioner is intervening in the German election to lecture Alice Weidel about appearing in a podcast with Elon Musk.

    https://x.com/thierrybreton/status/1875482430955532694

    Musk is clearly interfering. And he has Russian investors and backers.

    Seems a wise warning.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390

    Nah, we don't want that sort of immigrant. Pity the poor stewardesses... :)
    He's only as wrong as the average PBer though isn't he?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    Musk is clearly interfering. And he has Russian investors and backers.

    Seems a wise warning.
    And Thierry Breton is interfering in German politics. Why should Germany accept that?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    Musk describes himself as ethnically English.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1373490182117224448
    Nope. Not having him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082
    MaxPB said:

    Which is fair, what's very worrying is that Europe (and I include Labour's UK in this) is become a retirement home for people who have found success elsewhere in the world because it is now actively hostile to wealth creation. The welfare states across Europe have created an entitlement culture and people think they are owed wealth transfers from successful people whether that's directly in the form of cash benefits or indirectly in the form of healthcare/education/state employment etc...

    I don't know what the solution to this is, but the entitlement culture across Europe is bankrupting the continent, the UK included and it's become a negative spiral as we're having to increase tax to pay for it which further harms economic growth and the tax base and eventually we turn into Argentina.
    The Spectator was very good this week:

    "We have a government which preaches growth and yet seems to understand nothing of the conditions in which it thrives. Ever since the Labour party began to accuse the Cameron government of ‘austerity’ for daring to attempt to balance the public finances, it has seemed to operate under the belief that only the public sector can generate economic growth. It sees the private sector, by contrast, as there to be plundered. Entrepreneurs are not innovative and hard-working people whose talents and appetite for risk-taking create jobs and wealth; they are merely the fabled ‘broad shoulders’ who can be tapped again and again for revenue."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-growing-wealth-gap-between-britain-and-the-us/?homepage-tracking=magazine_minor-featured-1

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093

    And Thierry Breton is interfering in German politics. Why should Germany accept that?
    He isn't, though. He's giving a warning. Whereas Musky Baby is actively promoting a particular party.

    That's a distinction even you should be able to see, surely?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    kinabalu said:

    Do you and Moonshine not sniff a little bit of the far right about Musk then?

    (for it is He I was referring to)
    His support of Tommy Robinson is, I suspect, due to lack of knowledge of the man and his incarceration cause rather than support of him. He possibly takes things at face value.

    I think he is a free speech absolutist, small govt, conservative. To an outsider to the U.K. the grooming gangs story would seem crazy. The story, to me, is more the establishment cover ups/reluctance to act as many of the perpetrators were punished.

    I think there’s an element of playing to his base, he’s also a bit of a troll. If I was a major shareholder in Tesla or one of his other companies I’d be into him saying ‘what the fuck are you playing at ?, focus on the business’ his comments cannot help his businesses in mature and still relatively prosperous markets like Germany and the U.K.

    In U.K. terms I see him on the right of the Tory Party.

    His pro migration stance is certainly not far right, for example.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Omnium said:

    I'm very interested that you don't think Braverman will go. She's obviously between a stupid rock and a stupid hard place, but I had pencilled in that she'd be a definite.
    No she still wants to be Conservative leader some day but she has covered both bases and sent her husband to join Reform instead
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    He isn't, though. He's giving a warning. Whereas Musky Baby is actively promoting a particular party.

    That's a distinction even you should be able to see, surely?
    Oh that's ok then. Perhaps Alice Weidel should give a warning of her own to deter any further interference from French politicians.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    Nigel and Kemi need to reign Elon in over all this. (There are stories afoot that they're already trying.) It's so OTT that I can see Labour getting a polling boost as hitherto neutrals rally around Sir Keir in an act of solidarity.
    Yep. Our nation under attack from a far right johnny foreign megalomaniac. Time for some Dunkirk spirit.

    Who do you think you are kidding Mr Musky.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082

    The original poster said nothing of the sort.
    Get a grip.
    You accused several of us of favouring dictatorship, which is nonsense.

    If that's the standard of debate on here then we're all going to stop listening to each other.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082
    MaxPB said:

    As ever the refrain I hear from American business people is very true - America innovated and Europe regulates. I think without the UK in the EU it's worse than ever, the regulations are stifling for EU companies now that there's no significant free market voice at the top table. I'm extremely worried that Starmer will sell out the nation to the EU which I hope that the next government will just undo on day one.
    Starmer is absolutely going to sell the nation out to the EU, and well the EU knows it.

    It's one of my most certain predictions for this year and next.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    You accused several of us of favouring dictatorship, which is nonsense.

    If that's the standard of debate on here then we're all going to stop listening to each other.
    I didn’t say that directly, you should read the post again.
    Read it and understand it, in the immortal words of that parish council video that briefly went viral :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,390
    HYUFD said:

    No she still wants to be Conservative leader some day but she has covered both bases and sent her husband to join Reform instead
    Actually that makes a lot of sense. I presume she wants to be the Queen across the water for Reform.
This discussion has been closed.