Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Not unless Ukraine agree, Germany, France, Canada, Poland, Italy and the UK can otherwise continue to fund Zelensky indefinitely whatever Trump thinks
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Europe might not want DJT fucking them over, too.
Well they can want whatever they like but they have spent the last 80 years ceding strategic autonomy in order to be able to afford social democracy. They are not going to able to pivot to an assertively muscular independent posture that will allow them tell Trump to get fucked by next weekend.
If Trump says "No more F-35s for you" (or switches off ALIS/ODIN for the ones already delivered) then will Europe fall into line or tell him to stick his F-35s up his tattered arsehole?
Good morning everyone and a happy New Year to you all.
I never make New Year resolutions and I never make any serious predictions, so nothing to offer anyone at this time of year. My approach to New Year is the same as my approach to each day's weather: make the best of whatever turns up.
I made a New Year's resolution back in 2002 and I have kept it with no trouble at all ever since.
It was to stop making New Year's Resolutions.
No, this reveals an internal incoherence and self contradiction. In order to keep 'Resolution 2002' it has to be renewed by implication each 1st January, as it seems you have just done. This requires an annual resolution to do so, defeating the '2002 Intention'.
I lack emotional stamina, so I make monthly resolutions on this or that, easier to keep.
Cross channel crossings rose in 2024 after Starmer scrapped the Sunak proposals to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing "Channel migrants: Home Office figures in 2024 show 36,816 crossed - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y45dmg2pjo
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
All governments during my adult lifetime have been poor on Defence.
An ironic 'upside' of this is that it matters less now because the advances in drone warfare (and we must learn all we can from Ukraine both defensively and offensively) may make lots of gear and tactics either redundant or far less useful.
Nobody could envision another major war in Europe. We had put all that behind us. Or so we thought.
Ukraine invasion 2022: that was the reset. The full financing of that reset hasn't yet happened. We thought maybe we could do it on the cheap, giving Ukraine our cast-offs and bang-bangs past their use-by dates. And they have undeniably had an effect in blunting the Russian advance. The Soviet weaponry stockpiles have been demolished; the Russian ability to rebuild its armamant base with competitive kit has been shown to be constrained, even whilst putting the economy on a war footing.
Ukraine's indigenous weapons have grown far faster and with better spec toys than Russia is managing (no doubt some undeveloped tech has been donated by friendly powers to get them racing ahead). But we still, as a continent, need to build a deterrent force that Russia will KNOW it cannot defeat, even using meat-wave manpower surpluses.
There will be some very interesting wargames in the coming months and years, learning from Ukraine's experience. And then financing the kit required to win a war on the new terms of combat. We need to work out what is the cost effective component of our defence, then start building it at scale (and likewise selling it to our fellow NATO members). But we probably won't, if past experience is anything to go by.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Not unless Ukraine agree, Germany, France, Canada, Poland, Italy and the UK can otherwise continue to fund Zelensky indefinitely whatever Trump thinks
It's an interesting calculus. After all his boasting Trump really has to try and broker a deal and it needs to look as if he's got concessions from Putin. So I think there might be some theatre along the lines of Putin asking for something outrageous and Trump "beating him down" big man to big man towards something still favourable to Russia but not quite so outrageous, presented as "Vladimir knew I'd give Ukraine enough to blow his country to smithereens if he wasn't reasonable."
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
The US armaments industry is doing very nicely thank you out of the weaponry going to Ukraine/replacement new stuff for that draw-down of older stock.
I'm going to build a 1/9 scale diorama of Monte Cassino in my front garden.
Starmer couldn't give a toss about the armed forces or military history. He has typical bien pensant north London left-wing views about the nation being obsessed with WWII and views it all as chauvinistic and bombastic. He will be deeply embarrassed and repelled by it.
He's just been told it polls well.
It's not Labour that ran down our Armed forces over the last decade.
Well done for a terrific non sequitur to welcome in 2025.
The pisspoor state of our Armed Forces is pretty much in line with how all areas of public life in Britain over the last decade, even the areas that the Tories pretend to care about.
@IanB2 about Labour starting the white elephant of the carrier programme in the first place. I don't think that we will ever need to project force beyond where we have land based aircraft.
Yaaaawwwwnnn
It's true though.
Who else is responsible for the running down of all areas of public life over the last decade?
I don't think Starmer was being honest with his Ming Vase strategy (it clearly worked, but didn't deliver the mandate needed to restructure the country), but it's not just in the last six months that things have been going backwards.
Not all areas.
Anything involving oldies, including the NHS, has had money poured into it.
Yes, the Conservatives were responsible for that but I didn't see any other party opposing it.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
If Liz Truss had stuck to the no subsidy position she had during the leadership campaign then she might even have got away with her budget without it causing any negative market reaction.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
You could argue that the Tory vote would have been even worse without the Government's significant subsidy.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
Or bunging it into the NHS. They could have funded doctors' and nurses' wage settlement instead. You'd imagine that would have got SOME credit.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Its because voters believed they were still losing out - they didn't realise/care they would have lost out a lot more without the subsidies.
It seems that voters believe they have a right to cheap energy - the tantrums about WFA and the freezing of petrol duty confirm this - and that its someone else's responsibility to fund it.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
They lowered feck all bills, it went through teh roof with profiteering. France did the right thing and stopped the parasites robbing the public. Given all our energy companies ar eforeign owned we jsut subsidised foreigners bills and rich Tory pals bankbooks.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
There will certainly be no divorce for the Prince, if anything a split for Harry Windsor is more likely.
Nor will there be much call for a second Brexit vote, especially while Reform is on around 20%. Even the LDs aren't calling for one now just to rejoin the single market ultimately
At least three senior royals have had major health worries last year, so divorce might be the least of their problems.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
If Liz Truss had stuck to the no subsidy position she had during the leadership campaign then she might even have got away with her budget without it causing any negative market reaction.
I think she spent North of £80bn? Consumers would have reduced usage in response to prices, but I doubt she could have held the line on no support. It was far too generous a subsidy but I think something was needed.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Europe might not want DJT fucking them over, too.
Well they can want whatever they like but they have spent the last 80 years ceding strategic autonomy in order to be able to afford social democracy. They are not going to able to pivot to an assertively muscular independent posture that will allow them tell Trump to get fucked by next weekend.
If Trump says "No more F-35s for you" (or switches off ALIS/ODIN for the ones already delivered) then will Europe fall into line or tell him to stick his F-35s up his tattered arsehole?
Hopefully the latter, should be doing it anyway and spend their cash at home, the big tangerine would soon be whining.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Ditto the NI cuts.
But yes- voters are much more grateful for action during a crisis than for pre-empting a crisis altogether.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
If Liz Truss had stuck to the no subsidy position she had during the leadership campaign then she might even have got away with her budget without it causing any negative market reaction.
Yes the subsidy was a big factor in the sums not adding up. But I think Truss's main problem was her sloppiness and open contempt for due process. That plus having no mandate for her ideas and plans.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Otoh the eyewatering promises made by Starmer on lowering voters’ lecky bills achieved 411 seats. Funny ol’ world etc.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
If he does shut the SMO down ... My guess is Trump will go for a deal, which will fail mainly because Ukraine and Russia have incompatible goals and Putin overestimates the strength of his position, and also because Trump is a lousy negotiator. What happens next is hard to predict.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Its because voters believed they were still losing out - they didn't realise/care they would have lost out a lot more without the subsidies.
It seems that voters believe they have a right to cheap energy - the tantrums about WFA and the freezing of petrol duty confirm this - and that its someone else's responsibility to fund it.
I agree.
Trying to control energy prices was governmental overreach. The subsidy was far too generous, and sets a dangerous precedent for the next crisis.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Ditto the NI cuts.
But yes- voters are much more grateful for action during a crisis than for pre-empting a crisis altogether.
Unless people feel the pain they don't appreciate the solution.. And (from memory) it's been shown that after 3 months people get completely used to their new situation (be it better or worse).
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Its because voters believed they were still losing out - they didn't realise/care they would have lost out a lot more without the subsidies.
It seems that voters believe they have a right to cheap energy - the tantrums about WFA and the freezing of petrol duty confirm this - and that its someone else's responsibility to fund it.
another looney more like, it is government incompetence and daylight robbery. How does every other developed country manage to have it miles cheaper than the useless UK.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
Some interesting predictions there! I am not sure which is the least probable.
Politically, I expect Starmer and Badenoch to continue floundering, but am sceptical on current polling. The big movement is not Lab to Con or Lab to Reform, it is Lab to DK/WNV, which is in large part down to post electoral ennui.
Can Deliverism deliver for Starmer? I think there will be big improvements in a number of key national metrics including NHS waiting lists and immigration numbers, but never enough for some people.
Economically I expect a middling performance, with most other developed countries also in the economic doldrums, dragged down by demographics and ageing industries.
Farage will enjoy the limelight, but the ongoing car crash across the Atlantic will tarnish him significantly.
I am not particularly a Royal watcher, but the King does look rather old and frail. I can't see him lasting more than a couple of years, so William will be on his best behaviour, in public at least. I think he will be a rather headstrong King when the time comes, and that will adversely impacted support for the Monarchy, particularly in other Commonwealth Realms.
I doubt it, William is more popular than Charles across the Commonwealth realms, has no interest in any political role other than his Earthshot prize and homeless campaigns and has even said he may give up being permanent head of the Commonwealth as King but rotate the role amongst Commonwealth heads of state
Personally I think the Commonwealth should go - it is just a relic of Empire. Maybe shut it down after 100 years (2048/9 ?). For giggles, I would have the next head of the Commonwealth to be from a country where homosexuality is banned.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
There will certainly be no divorce for the Prince, if anything a split for Harry Windsor is more likely.
Nor will there be much call for a second Brexit vote, especially while Reform is on around 20%. Even the LDs aren't calling for one now just to rejoin the single market ultimately
At least three senior royals have had major health worries last year, so divorce might be the least of their problems.
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
They would have been better off politically letting that one fester fr a bit longer before intervening.
If Liz Truss had stuck to the no subsidy position she had during the leadership campaign then she might even have got away with her budget without it causing any negative market reaction.
Might?
She definitely would have.
The market reaction was not remotely to her quite miniscule tax changes, it was to the eye-watering subsidies as well as the Bank of England beginning Quantitative Tightening within the same 24 hours.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
Some interesting predictions there! I am not sure which is the least probable.
Politically, I expect Starmer and Badenoch to continue floundering, but am sceptical on current polling. The big movement is not Lab to Con or Lab to Reform, it is Lab to DK/WNV, which is in large part down to post electoral ennui.
Can Deliverism deliver for Starmer? I think there will be big improvements in a number of key national metrics including NHS waiting lists and immigration numbers, but never enough for some people.
Economically I expect a middling performance, with most other developed countries also in the economic doldrums, dragged down by demographics and ageing industries.
Farage will enjoy the limelight, but the ongoing car crash across the Atlantic will tarnish him significantly.
I am not particularly a Royal watcher, but the King does look rather old and frail. I can't see him lasting more than a couple of years, so William will be on his best behaviour, in public at least. I think he will be a rather headstrong King when the time comes, and that will adversely impacted support for the Monarchy, particularly in other Commonwealth Realms.
I doubt it, William is more popular than Charles across the Commonwealth realms, has no interest in any political role other than his Earthshot prize and homeless campaigns and has even said he may give up being permanent head of the Commonwealth as King but rotate the role amongst Commonwealth heads of state
Personally I think the Commonwealth should go - it is just a relic of Empire. Maybe shut it down after 100 years (2048/9 ?). For giggles, I would have the next head of the Commonwealth to be from a country where homosexuality is banned.
Absolutely not, it is a useful forum for cultural and economic links and sporting competition.
More importantly it is one of the few international organisations that offers a genuine counterweight to Beijing's influence in Africa and South Asia and the Pacific in particular
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
For Asia and the Pacific a more important one now is the CPTPP which the UK thanks to Brexit is now officially a member of.
That could be one of Liz Truss's most important and positive legacies.
Yet excludes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Fiji, Samoa, Papua New Guinea, the Maldives and the whole of Africa and the Caribbean unlike the Commonwealth
For Asia and the Pacific a more important one now is the CPTPP which the UK thanks to Brexit is now officially a member of.
That could be one of Liz Truss's most important and positive legacies.
Yet excludes India, Pakistan, Fiji, Samoa, Papua New Guinea and the whole of Africa and the Caribbean unlike the Commonwealth
The only thing the Commonwealth does is give non-reciprocal rights to vote in our elections. We don’t get any trade privileges in return. It’s an anachronism.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
For all of Trump's moaning about European allies not paying their way, it's massively in America's geostrategic interests for Europe to be on their hook. Like you say, by and large, it means what the Americans say, goes. The US does not actually want a strategically independent Europe telling them to get stuffed where their interests are not aligned.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
I think Lab will remain below 30% most of the time.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
For all of Trump's moaning about European allies not paying their way, it's massively in America's geostrategic interests for Europe to be on their hook. Like you say, by and large, it means what the Americans say, goes. The US does not actually want a strategically independent Europe telling them to get stuffed where their interests are not aligned.
Indeed and Russia is more of a concern for Europe security wise whereas for Trump's US it is China and Europe are not as pro tariff on China as Trump's US either.
So if the US does not help Europe at all contain Putin and imposes tariffs on EU as well as Chinese imports, do not be surprised if the EU in particular takes a position of neutrality in a US and China trade war, with Starmer's UK following suit. While Europe is not that willing to contribute much to US efforts to support Japanese and S Korean security either
For Asia and the Pacific a more important one now is the CPTPP which the UK thanks to Brexit is now officially a member of.
That could be one of Liz Truss's most important and positive legacies.
Yet excludes India, Pakistan, Fiji, Samoa, Papua New Guinea and the whole of Africa and the Caribbean unlike the Commonwealth
The only thing the Commonwealth does is give non-reciprocal rights to vote in our elections. We don’t get any trade privileges in return. It’s an anachronism.
We get cultural exchange, sporting games and of course we help develop Commonwealth nations and foster democracy throughout the Commonwealth too
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
I think Lab will remain below 30% most of the time.
Yes, absolutely no reason to think otherwise. This year looks like it will be worse than last year for them, for a range of reasons beyond their control.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
If he does shut the SMO down ... My guess is Trump will go for a deal, which will fail mainly because Ukraine and Russia have incompatible goals and Putin overestimates the strength of his position, and also because Trump is a lousy negotiator. What happens next is hard to predict.
This is my view as well. Trump is not in a position to force a deal on either side, and a deal that is not accepted by Zelensky is not likely to be acceptable to the rest of Europe. The simple lesson is that Putin cannot be appeased. Nor morally should he benefit from the chaos and destruction he has wrought. There is not a deal that is acceptable to the west that will be acceptable to Russia,
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
Some interesting predictions there! I am not sure which is the least probable.
Politically, I expect Starmer and Badenoch to continue floundering, but am sceptical on current polling. The big movement is not Lab to Con or Lab to Reform, it is Lab to DK/WNV, which is in large part down to post electoral ennui.
Can Deliverism deliver for Starmer? I think there will be big improvements in a number of key national metrics including NHS waiting lists and immigration numbers, but never enough for some people.
Economically I expect a middling performance, with most other developed countries also in the economic doldrums, dragged down by demographics and ageing industries.
Farage will enjoy the limelight, but the ongoing car crash across the Atlantic will tarnish him significantly.
I am not particularly a Royal watcher, but the King does look rather old and frail. I can't see him lasting more than a couple of years, so William will be on his best behaviour, in public at least. I think he will be a rather headstrong King when the time comes, and that will adversely impacted support for the Monarchy, particularly in other Commonwealth Realms.
I doubt it, William is more popular than Charles across the Commonwealth realms, has no interest in any political role other than his Earthshot prize and homeless campaigns and has even said he may give up being permanent head of the Commonwealth as King but rotate the role amongst Commonwealth heads of state
Personally I think the Commonwealth should go - it is just a relic of Empire. Maybe shut it down after 100 years (2048/9 ?). For giggles, I would have the next head of the Commonwealth to be from a country where homosexuality is banned.
In fact, the Commonwealth is 99 years old - it was established by the Balfour Declaration (no, not that one - apparently there were two) at the 1926 Imperial Conference. So its centenary is next year.
But just because something is a relic of Empire doesn't mean it should go. If anything, it means it should probably last forever.
Or should we reintroduce the global slave trade? Or deport our non-white population? Or should the Indians start burning their widows again? Or maybe the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand should commit national suicide?
IMHO, Labour will fall to third place, in polls, this year, and have horrible local, and by, election results.
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
They've given millions of public sector and unionised employees a reason to vote for them in 2029, pretty much no matter what.
They might fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately?" problem. 2029 is a long time to wait for a thank you note.
Yep no one is going to care about a payrise they got in 2024 by the end of 2025 let alone 2029...
One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was that the eye-watering amount spent by the Conservatives on lowering voters' lecky bills achieved zero political gratitude.
Its because voters believed they were still losing out - they didn't realise/care they would have lost out a lot more without the subsidies.
It seems that voters believe they have a right to cheap energy - the tantrums about WFA and the freezing of petrol duty confirm this - and that its someone else's responsibility to fund it.
I agree.
Trying to control energy prices was governmental overreach. The subsidy was far too generous, and sets a dangerous precedent for the next crisis.
I’m not so sure. In the same way a country is only ever one missed meal away from a riot, I think it may be one super-inflated fuel bill from the same. The subsidy was about social cohesion.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Europe might not want DJT fucking them over, too.
Well they can want whatever they like but they have spent the last 80 years ceding strategic autonomy in order to be able to afford social democracy. They are not going to able to pivot to an assertively muscular independent posture that will allow them tell Trump to get fucked by next weekend.
If Trump says "No more F-35s for you" (or switches off ALIS/ODIN for the ones already delivered) then will Europe fall into line or tell him to stick his F-35s up his tattered arsehole?
Oh, in the unlikely event of his deciding in a full scale confrontation with Europe in favour of Russia, then we're certainly in a different world. I don't out a particularly high probability on that.
Not least because a closer relationship with China would then likely be in the cards - which would be in neither if our best interests.
Out of interest why is this suddenly gaining prominence now ? It’s been known for a long time yet seems to be being dragged up alot and by serious commentators as well as people on the hard right using it for political purposes, just as bad as the hard left who do the same.
We saw it here with the Magdeburg killing. When it was revealed the perpetrator was a lapsed Muslim some people were delighted it was not a regular muslim, and vice versa. Think of the victims.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
If he does shut the SMO down ... My guess is Trump will go for a deal, which will fail mainly because Ukraine and Russia have incompatible goals and Putin overestimates the strength of his position, and also because Trump is a lousy negotiator. What happens next is hard to predict.
This is my view as well. Trump is not in a position to force a deal on either side, and a deal that is not accepted by Zelensky is not likely to be acceptable to the rest of Europe. The simple lesson is that Putin cannot be appeased. Nor morally should he benefit from the chaos and destruction he has wrought. There is not a deal that is acceptable to the west that will be acceptable to Russia,
Trump in the game does increase the chances of escalation as much as it increases the chance of Ukraine being forced to concede. Trump didn’t want to intervene in Syria on his previous watch, until he saw photos of what Assad had been doing.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
If he does shut the SMO down ... My guess is Trump will go for a deal, which will fail mainly because Ukraine and Russia have incompatible goals and Putin overestimates the strength of his position, and also because Trump is a lousy negotiator. What happens next is hard to predict.
I think Trump also overestimates the strength of his position quite seriously, and the USA's position. They are now dominant, not predominant, imo. And if he continues to be isolationist, he will make it weaker.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
I think Lab will remain below 30% most of the time.
It's a sign of how deep the doodoos are that the Tories are in that they're not already polling comfortably into the mid 30s.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
Some interesting predictions there! I am not sure which is the least probable.
Politically, I expect Starmer and Badenoch to continue floundering, but am sceptical on current polling. The big movement is not Lab to Con or Lab to Reform, it is Lab to DK/WNV, which is in large part down to post electoral ennui.
Can Deliverism deliver for Starmer? I think there will be big improvements in a number of key national metrics including NHS waiting lists and immigration numbers, but never enough for some people.
Economically I expect a middling performance, with most other developed countries also in the economic doldrums, dragged down by demographics and ageing industries.
Farage will enjoy the limelight, but the ongoing car crash across the Atlantic will tarnish him significantly.
I am not particularly a Royal watcher, but the King does look rather old and frail. I can't see him lasting more than a couple of years, so William will be on his best behaviour, in public at least. I think he will be a rather headstrong King when the time comes, and that will adversely impacted support for the Monarchy, particularly in other Commonwealth Realms.
I doubt it, William is more popular than Charles across the Commonwealth realms, has no interest in any political role other than his Earthshot prize and homeless campaigns and has even said he may give up being permanent head of the Commonwealth as King but rotate the role amongst Commonwealth heads of state
Personally I think the Commonwealth should go - it is just a relic of Empire. Maybe shut it down after 100 years (2048/9 ?). For giggles, I would have the next head of the Commonwealth to be from a country where homosexuality is banned.
In fact, the Commonwealth is 99 years old - it was established by the Balfour Declaration (no, not that one - apparently there were two) at the 1926 Imperial Conference. So its centenary is next year.
But just because something is a relic of Empire doesn't mean it should go. If anything, it means it should probably last forever.
Or should we reintroduce the global slave trade? Or deport our non-white population? Or should the Indians start burning their widows again? Or maybe the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand should commit national suicide?
At present, it won't last. China has successfully stoked anger within it to direct fire at Britain for Reparations™ and India and South Africa have checked out. We lack the confidence to assert and lead it, partly due to shit like Decolonisation and all the other handwringing that goes with it.
Happy new year all, from a beautiful and frosty Maconnais. After a week of freezing fog the sun is out and the world looks like Elsa has been practising for Frozen III.
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We - and I mean democratic nations - cannot afford Ukraine to be forced to give way. That is the truth of it. If Trump backs off Europe must take up the slack. We must see Putin and Putinism as the utter evil that it is and defend Ukraine and ourselves against it.
That assumes Trump will be chill with Europe keeping the SMO on the road. If he brokers a deal with VVP (I assume Zelenskiy can couped out of the way if necessary) then he might not want Europe fucking it up. If DJT says it's over, then it's over.
Trump clearly thinks he's going to fix a deal on Ukraine. Risk is he's not nearly as savvy in that department as he thinks he is.
My uninformed hunch is that he thinks there will be some sort of economic boost, for which he will take fulsome credit, if he shuts the SMO down. He doesn't particularly care where the line in the mud is.
If he does shut the SMO down ... My guess is Trump will go for a deal, which will fail mainly because Ukraine and Russia have incompatible goals and Putin overestimates the strength of his position, and also because Trump is a lousy negotiator. What happens next is hard to predict.
I think Trump also overestimates the strength of his position quite seriously, and the USA's position. They are now dominant, not predominant, imo. And if he continues to be isolationist, he will make it weaker.
The biggest Ukrainian arms supplier has a lot of leverage.
So many people at all levels of power in the UK need to be in prison for this.
What’s the Kekius Maximus bullshit all about?
He's picked up a [4chan] meme from at least a decade ago that is long dead.
On the actual truth about Rotherham, the evidence of official culpability was destroyed. This was boasted about by officials, to the lady who wrote up the first report.
I suggested, at a political event, a simple way round that to the Home Sec of the time.
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
I think Lab will remain below 30% most of the time.
It's a sign of how deep the doodoos are that the Tories are in that they're not already polling comfortably into the mid 30s.
Also, how much of the right is still in "pleasure before business" mode.
I get the impression that some on the right would prefer C28R26L24 (Labour third! Tee hee!) to C38R16L24 (The sort of midterm score that might be beginning to look interesting.)
The more balanced the split on the opposition, especially if it's geographically inefficient, the more the government likes it.
Sadiq Khan has been accused of politicising London's New Year's Eve fireworks last night with a hidden message in the music pointing to Labour's General Election win.
Viewers claimed the Mayor used part of his 11-minute display to poke fun at Rishi Sunak's rain-soaked general election announcement at Downing Street in May.
(It's been given away, now, after being empty since 1984. It looks like parts of the Barbican, but buildings like that need big cashflow through them to stay in condition.)
I went to Casino in October. It’s quite a sad town. It’s a place of pilgrimage to Poles, Germans, Americans, New Zealanders, and Indians. But, the locals just want to forget about the battle that destroyed their town.
My late grandfather fought at Casino, certainly a key battle in the Italian campaign
Sadiq Khan has been accused of politicising London's New Year's Eve fireworks last night with a hidden message in the music pointing to Labour's General Election win.
Viewers claimed the Mayor used part of his 11-minute display to poke fun at Rishi Sunak's rain-soaked general election announcement at Downing Street in May.
So many people at all levels of power in the UK need to be in prison for this.
What’s the Kekius Maximus bullshit all about?
He's picked up a [4chan] meme from at least a decade ago that is long dead.
On the actual truth about Rotherham, the evidence of official culpability was destroyed. This was boasted about by officials, to the lady who wrote up the first report.
I suggested, at a political event, a simple way round that to the Home Sec of the time.
Despite the stupid rename on X, Musk isn't actually wrong on that point.
There's also, ahem, neighbouring authorities that might have done similar things, albeit on a smaller scale.
There's so much ammunition for Cyclefree it isn't funny.
Sadiq Khan has been accused of politicising London's New Year's Eve fireworks last night with a hidden message in the music pointing to Labour's General Election win.
Viewers claimed the Mayor used part of his 11-minute display to poke fun at Rishi Sunak's rain-soaked general election announcement at Downing Street in May.
Uncertainty about whether the man with the van and the gun and the bomb was a terrorist.
What does the matrix of race vs motivation tell us? They keep changing it. “Mental health”, “Terrorist”, it’s hard to remember the right one.
Can we make it simpler and standardise - “Fucked In The Head”, perhaps?
Isn't the rule of thumb in soon to be Trump's US that darker skinned perpetrators are terrorists and lighter skinned perpetrators are subject to mental health issues, or are anti-woke freedom fighters?
Sadiq Khan has been accused of politicising London's New Year's Eve fireworks last night with a hidden message in the music pointing to Labour's General Election win.
Viewers claimed the Mayor used part of his 11-minute display to poke fun at Rishi Sunak's rain-soaked general election announcement at Downing Street in May.
So many people at all levels of power in the UK need to be in prison for this.
What’s the Kekius Maximus bullshit all about?
He's picked up a [4chan] meme from at least a decade ago that is long dead.
On the actual truth about Rotherham, the evidence of official culpability was destroyed. This was boasted about by officials, to the lady who wrote up the first report.
I suggested, at a political event, a simple way round that to the Home Sec of the time.
Despite the stupid rename on X, Musk isn't actually wrong on that point.
There's also, ahem, neighbouring authorities that might have done similar things, albeit on a smaller scale.
There's so much ammunition for Cyclefree it isn't funny.
One stuck in my mind -
A stepdad of one of the girls was confronted by the police, in his home. Not for violence or threats of violence. For repeatedly reporting the crimes against his step daughter. To the police.
The policeman threatened that if he didn’t desist, the police inform his work and the council that he was a hard core racist. In the case of the council this would trigger the provisions about anti-social neighbours. So he would lose his council house - and not have a right to another.
Philip Schofield never recovered after jumping the queue.
1. Get elected to a senior global political position 2. Go on a brief holiday with your family 3. Kids want to have fun. Security means you aren't allowed to queue 4. Get grief for queue jumping 5. Realise you need to go on holiday on private islands in future so that you don't get grief for security-driven queue jumping 6. Get grief for going on holiday on Necker Island
Philip Schofield never recovered after jumping the queue.
That reminds me of something I saw back in 2010.
I was on a train going to Birmingham on business and sitting quietly working and minding my own business in the Quiet Compartment. In barged the Deputy Prime Minister, and, though there were plenty of spare seats on the train, his security detail for some reason decided they wanted our table and chucked the three of us sitting there off.
They did so perfectly politely, but unmistakably firmly - they'd obviously done it many times before. He could have sat in plenty of other seats in the compartment.
Then, after I'd sat down and was back to my spreadsheets, Clegg decided to have a long call on his mobile phone with his Spanish wife, speaking unnecessarily loudly, with head tilted up so his voice spread throughout the compartment, from his mannger, I assume he wanted to show everybody watching that he was fluent in Spanish.
Anyway, that confirmed what I'd already thought - attention seeking, playing to the gallery, inconsideration to lesser beings and outright narcissism aren't so much occasional vices of most successful politicians as their dominant characteristics.
Uncertainty about whether the man with the van and the gun and the bomb was a terrorist.
What does the matrix of race vs motivation tell us? They keep changing it. “Mental health”, “Terrorist”, it’s hard to remember the right one.
Can we make it simpler and standardise - “Fucked In The Head”, perhaps?
Isn't the rule of thumb in soon to be Trump's US that darker skinned perpetrators are terrorists and lighter skinned perpetrators are subject to mental health issues, or are anti-woke freedom fighters?
And here some people have been arguing for the same. And some for the reverse. It’s all very confusing.
Can’t we just agree on repeatedly wacking such people with narwhal horns?
Philip Schofield never recovered after jumping the queue.
1. Get elected to a senior global political position 2. Go on a brief holiday with your family 3. Kids want to have fun. Security means you aren't allowed to queue 4. Get grief for queue jumping 5. Realise you need to go on holiday on private islands in future so that you don't get grief for security-driven queue jumping 6. Get grief for going on holiday on Necker Island
Even if it didn’t happen the Express would make it up
It will help stuff Russia which is a great thing. Time to sink their shadow fleet of tankers and stop their oil as well.
Will also boost exports of US gas, which will cheer up the orange nutter.
That's a declining sum game at least in the UK - Gas usage peaked about 20 years ago here, and has fallen by well over a third since.
It's also a capacity problem for the USA. It's not clear that they have the ability to export much more.
Gasification trains* are, strangely, slightly easier to build than regas trains.
Floating gasification trains are now built in specialist shipyards, for example.
*”trains” is the term used for the equipment which forms a long, multistage process at both ends. One turns gas into liquid, the other turns liquid into gas. Both are fun, since they involve enormous amounts of flammable gas, and huge amounts of energy being added or removed from said gas.
Comments
If Trump says "No more F-35s for you" (or switches off ALIS/ODIN for the ones already delivered) then will Europe fall into line or tell him to stick his F-35s up his tattered arsehole?
Cheltenham 1.30 Bowtogreatness
Cheltenham 2.05 Lisnamult Lad
Mussleborough 2.20 Indian Louis
Cheltenham 2.40 One Big Bang
I like to finish up with a big bang 🤭
I’m in 😃
I’m convinced you don’t even read PB. 🤣
Ukraine invasion 2022: that was the reset. The full financing of that reset hasn't yet happened. We thought maybe we could do it on the cheap, giving Ukraine our cast-offs and bang-bangs past their use-by dates. And they have undeniably had an effect in blunting the Russian advance. The Soviet weaponry stockpiles have been demolished; the Russian ability to rebuild its armamant base with competitive kit has been shown to be constrained, even whilst putting the economy on a war footing.
Ukraine's indigenous weapons have grown far faster and with better spec toys than Russia is managing (no doubt some undeveloped tech has been donated by friendly powers to get them racing ahead). But we still, as a continent, need to build a deterrent force that Russia will KNOW it cannot defeat, even using meat-wave manpower surpluses.
There will be some very interesting wargames in the coming months and years, learning from Ukraine's experience. And then financing the kit required to win a war on the new terms of combat. We need to work out what is the cost effective component of our defence, then start building it at scale (and likewise selling it to our fellow NATO members). But we probably won't, if past experience is anything to go by.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2025/01/01/in-new-year-s-address-macron-admits-snap-elections-cause-more-divisions-than-solutions_6736617_5.html
Imposing a settlement will cost American jobs.
It seems that voters believe they have a right to cheap energy - the tantrums about WFA and the freezing of petrol duty confirm this - and that its someone else's responsibility to fund it.
But yes- voters are much more grateful for action during a crisis than for pre-empting a crisis altogether.
Trying to control energy prices was governmental overreach. The subsidy was far too generous, and sets a dangerous precedent for the next crisis.
Slovakia is badly affected by it apparently.
Maybe shut it down after 100 years (2048/9 ?).
For giggles, I would have the next head of the Commonwealth to be from a country where homosexuality is banned.
She definitely would have.
The market reaction was not remotely to her quite miniscule tax changes, it was to the eye-watering subsidies as well as the Bank of England beginning Quantitative Tightening within the same 24 hours.
More importantly it is one of the few international organisations that offers a genuine counterweight to Beijing's influence in Africa and South Asia and the Pacific in particular
That could be one of Liz Truss's most important and positive legacies.
How the hell is his nickname Hollywood. He’s from the North East.
In wrestling we had Hollywood Hulk Hogan, get that, he was a movie star after all. But Chris Dobey !
Indeed, but AIUI at far lower quantities, and at much lower profit levels than they would get just pushing it through the pipes.
So if the US does not help Europe at all contain Putin and imposes tariffs on EU as well as Chinese imports, do not be surprised if the EU in particular takes a position of neutrality in a US and China trade war, with Starmer's UK following suit. While Europe is not that willing to contribute much to US efforts to support Japanese and S Korean security either
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1874423327789551778
So many people at all levels of power in the UK need to be in prison for this.
But just because something is a relic of Empire doesn't mean it should go. If anything, it means it should probably last forever.
Or should we reintroduce the global slave trade? Or deport our non-white population? Or should the Indians start burning their widows again? Or maybe the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand should commit national suicide?
I don't out a particularly high probability on that.
Not least because a closer relationship with China would then likely be in the cards - which would be in neither if our best interests.
https://x.com/azatalsalim/status/1738344376554926434?s=61
All the enablers need to be held to account.
Of course they won’t be
Out of interest why is this suddenly gaining prominence now ? It’s been known for a long time yet seems to be being dragged up alot and by serious commentators as well as people on the hard right using it for political purposes, just as bad as the hard left who do the same.
We saw it here with the Magdeburg killing. When it was revealed the perpetrator was a lapsed Muslim some people were delighted it was not a regular muslim, and vice versa. Think of the victims.
Only HMQ held it together.
I have Elon Musk in the 2025 Deadpool. "Prescription Drug" overdose.
Who's keeping score ?
I suggested, at a political event, a simple way round that to the Home Sec of the time.
I get the impression that some on the right would prefer C28R26L24 (Labour third! Tee hee!) to C38R16L24 (The sort of midterm score that might be beginning to look interesting.)
The more balanced the split on the opposition, especially if it's geographically inefficient, the more the government likes it.
Viewers claimed the Mayor used part of his 11-minute display to poke fun at Rishi Sunak's rain-soaked general election announcement at Downing Street in May.
They pointed out that the show featured the 1999 Travis song Why Does It Always Rain On Me - followed by D:Ream's 1993 hit Things Can Only Get Better.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14241073/New-Years-Eve-fireworks-London-Sadiq-Khan-Mayor-music.html
Peak Daily Mail?
Another 30 people have been injured in the incident, which took place on the corner of the popular Bourbon Street, in the French Quarter of the city.
https://news.sky.com/story/casualties-feared-after-reports-a-vehicle-struck-people-in-new-orleans-13282315
Uncertainty about whether the man with the van and the gun and the bomb was a terrorist.
There's also, ahem, neighbouring authorities that might have done similar things, albeit on a smaller scale.
There's so much ammunition for Cyclefree it isn't funny.
Can we make it simpler and standardise - “Fucked In The Head”, perhaps?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1994933/keir-starmer-enrages-tourists-jumping-queue-holiday-ride
Philip Schofield never recovered after jumping the queue.
Though it was the Sunday Dispatch that ran the "Why I like the Blackshirts" prize letter competition. So there's that.
https://x.com/Mikiashvili_M/status/1874420331504414909
Early summer was not particularly wet, so that left only one reason for doing it.
Whether you care or not is another matter.
A stepdad of one of the girls was confronted by the police, in his home. Not for violence or threats of violence. For repeatedly reporting the crimes against his step daughter. To the police.
The policeman threatened that if he didn’t desist, the police inform his work and the council that he was a hard core racist. In the case of the council this would trigger the provisions about anti-social neighbours. So he would lose his council house - and not have a right to another.
Everything on Twatter should be disregarded.
2. Go on a brief holiday with your family
3. Kids want to have fun. Security means you aren't allowed to queue
4. Get grief for queue jumping
5. Realise you need to go on holiday on private islands in future so that you don't get grief for security-driven queue jumping
6. Get grief for going on holiday on Necker Island
I was on a train going to Birmingham on business and sitting quietly working and minding my own business in the Quiet Compartment. In barged the Deputy Prime Minister, and, though there were plenty of spare seats on the train, his security detail for some reason decided they wanted our table and chucked the three of us sitting there off.
They did so perfectly politely, but unmistakably firmly - they'd obviously done it many times before. He could have sat in plenty of other seats in the compartment.
Then, after I'd sat down and was back to my spreadsheets, Clegg decided to have a long call on his mobile phone with his Spanish wife, speaking unnecessarily loudly, with head tilted up so his voice spread throughout the compartment, from his mannger, I assume he wanted to show everybody watching that he was fluent in Spanish.
Anyway, that confirmed what I'd already thought - attention seeking, playing to the gallery, inconsideration to lesser beings and outright narcissism aren't so much occasional vices of most successful politicians as their dominant characteristics.
Can’t we just agree on repeatedly wacking such people with narwhal horns?
It's also a capacity problem for the USA. It's not clear that they have the ability to export much more.
Besides, is PB not a negativity sink performing a service in keeping bad vibes away from the real world?
Floating gasification trains are now built in specialist shipyards, for example.
*”trains” is the term used for the equipment which forms a long, multistage process at both ends. One turns gas into liquid, the other turns liquid into gas. Both are fun, since they involve enormous amounts of flammable gas, and huge amounts of energy being added or removed from said gas.