Categories
Farewell to the year with two massive elections – politicalbetting.com
Farewell to the year with two massive elections – politicalbetting.com
From a political betting perspective 2024 was an epic year, a UK general election, a US presidential election with the incumbent quitting the race in July, a Tory leadership contest, a French legislative election, and the betting on the date of the UK general election which has gotten some people in real trouble.
0
Comments
Anyhow, today is going to be busy dealing with all the HNY emails from every online retailer I have ever used...
2024 saw the continuation of the weakness of incumbent Governments in many parts of the world ending with the opposition winning in Ghana at the beginning of December.
I suspect 2025 will continue to be tough for incumbents and those sweeping into office on tides of public acclaim or apathy will quickly realize just how easy opposition is in comparison to Government.
No one anywhere, it seems, whatever their political stance or policy, has any answer to the prevailing economic malaise. Some blame “immigration” and scapegoat sections of society, others look to reduce Government but neither looks effective.
No one seems able to produce economic growth which works to the benefit of all rather than just making the very rich even richer and hoping somehow some form of trickle down will do the trick.
I’m far from convinced mass deportations or tariffs will make anything better either. Perhaps technological evolution will in time produce the economic transformation which will recommence growth but in the short term frustrated and socially immobile populations are going to continue to be drawn to the siren voices of those who offer not answers but personal advancement for themselves and their cronies.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-says-nation-can-34397821
I'm going to build a 1/9 scale diorama of Monte Cassino in my front garden.
I never make New Year resolutions and I never make any serious predictions, so nothing to offer anyone at this time of year. My approach to New Year is the same as my approach to each day's weather: make the best of whatever turns up.
It was to stop making New Year's Resolutions.
Simple: bets can then be made on the date of the next EU membership referendum, and its result.
(Joining EFTA/EEA would help more than joining the EU).
EDIT: Doh! Sorry, you mean the Presidential election in Ireland under AV! It is I who did not get enough sleep.
One possible exception to that will be the government of either Russia or Ukraine, as it seems unlikely the war will last beyond this year. If Ukraine implodes, that will be to put it mildly suboptimal for Volodomyr Zelensky. If, on the other hand, the Russian economy tanks entirely and Putin has to withdraw from Ukraine this will damage his own government beyond repair.
If, of course, the Orange Haired One decides to impose a silly peace on both so he can lie about his deal making abilities then that will be suboptimal for both, probably more so for Ukraine as at least what Putin has can be spun as a victory.
The other is: UK is amazing; currently our cup is half full and this is how and why, and we can get it fuller, we have big ideas we are explaining to you for incremental improvement. Stop blaming the past for our responsibilities now. Nearly all politicians of all parties want the best for the country.
The latter would be worth a try, and the space is vacant.
May 2025 bring fluffy clouds of hope and reassurance.
I was asleep before midnight, so 2025 started for me at 06:00, being trodden on by a poodle.
🤞
Net zero sceptics will be delighted to learn that my new air source heat pump does not perform very well in minus 6. It’s warm enough inside, but it’s eating up the kilowatts like nobody’s business and keeps tripping our circuit breaker.
2024 was a lot about domestic politics, with an election as the centrepiece. 2025 feels like it’ll be all about international events. Trump’s second presidency and those tariffs, a possible denouement for good or bad in Ukraine, and a big test of nation building for the Syrians.
We have the hoped for shift away from corruption and lies but the replacement is dreary. The green energy evolution is all I can see on the hopeful side. And it might be blocked by failure of imagination, incompetent admin, or low ambition.
Anyway.
Just keep buggering on. Look for the positive. That normally works.
Keep well.
Some things will happen.
Other things will not happen.
I think that about covers it.
May your New Year be the one that you are hoping for.
I remembered this year though. I reckon my bottle will last me another 7 years at least. I bought it quite a long time before 2008.
And Happy New Year everybody…
Happy New Year!
The future additional cost of a European military capable of defending against Russia plus Ukraine is considerably less than that of defeating this invasion.
That ought to have been clear from the outset.
I make resolutions to do specific things I enjoy but maybe wouldn't get round to otherwise in the daily grind.
He's just been told it polls well.
(I assume that was just a typo?)
Labour back to regular 35% polling by year end as the more educated and realistic citizens realise they are putting the key foundations and building blocks in place to rebuild a broken Country.
Starmer method driven methodical approach starts to work.
Badenoch starts to gain a foothold over Reform with Tories edging up to high 20s
The Reform bubble starts to burst, driven by chaos and possible riots it the US and UK with Farage instigating and getting widespread rebuttal for it.
Expect further corruption issues to affect Farage and Lowe especially and a general repulsion towards MAGA and Musk.
Elsewhere possible exile for Andrew Windsor, divorce for William Windsor and increasing calls for a second Brexit vote.
He reckons that Millei retains popularity despite ballooning poverty, freezing pensions, slashing budgets across the State Sector as things could not continue as they were.
He did caveat this though by saying that there is so much black economy there that you simply shouldn't believe statistics coming out of their ministries.
I have just accepted the Guardian's special half price yearly subscription to the 1st January 2026 [digital]
At least it is better than watching and subscribing to GB news
And I remain a supporter of Kemi and a conservative who wants to see Farage defeated
In the USA, one I missed from just before Christmas - the Republican Congresswoman in the Dementia Home for the last 6 months.
That makes the majority even more interesting - has anyone been counting, @rcs1000 ?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/dc-age-biden-kay-granger-b2668696.html
The victory of Trump and the Republicans in November is though likely to start a swing to the right further next year. In February in Germany the centre right CDU leader Merz is expected to win and become chancellor with the far right AfD even beating the governing centre left SPD for second. Though the SPD is likely to be the junior partner in government still.
Towards the autumn Australia has an election where the governing Labor Party is projected to lose its majority and PM Albanese likely would need to do a deal with Teal Independents and the Greens to at best scenario for him to keep out the right wing populist Coalition leader Dutton from power.
While finally in Canada by the end of the year the Conservatives led by Poilevre are expected to win a landslide victory and sweep Trudeau and his Liberals from power after 10 years of Liberal led government with the Liberals maybe even falling to third again behind the social democratic NDP.
Happy New Year!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-46822229
(It's been given away, now, after being empty since 1984. It looks like parts of the Barbican, but buildings like that need big cashflow through them to stay in condition.)
There’s apparently serious suggestions that Trump is going to introduce a constitutional amendment to enact term limits for the House and the Senate - in polling it’s the single most popular policy he’s suggested, with over 70% in favour. A very high bar to get it passed though.
"Energy price cap: Bills rise with warnings of more pain ahead - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2612npy61o
It moved here from London, after their former site was bombed. And courses have now moved in various directions.
https://www.google.com/maps/place//@52.9291068,-1.2442866,330m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!1m5!3m4!2zNTLCsDU1JzQ2LjYiTiAxwrAxNCczNS41Ilc!8m2!3d52.9296!4d-1.2432?hl=en&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIxMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
There's an earlyish Grand Designs renovation (people with horses) on the other side of the road 1/4 of a mile away.
Nor will there be much call for a second Brexit vote, especially while Reform is on around 20%. Even the LDs aren't calling for one now just to rejoin the single market ultimately
What's not to like?
More worryingly, even though satirical it's a very 2020s influencer vibe.
Unix zero date, every time.
Happy New Year, and "Happy Birthday" to all.
Though there may have been various duties on her staff aiui to report when their Representative is unfit.
@IanB2 about Labour starting the white elephant of the carrier programme in the first place. I don't think that we will ever need to project force beyond where we have land based aircraft.
I think I'll go back to bed and take a Mulligan / restart the year.
.....and it wasn't a joke or an influencer and I was so angry
Politically, I expect Starmer and Badenoch to continue floundering, but am sceptical on current polling. The big movement is not Lab to Con or Lab to Reform, it is Lab to DK/WNV, which is in large part down to post electoral ennui.
Can Deliverism deliver for Starmer? I think there will be big improvements in a number of key national metrics including NHS waiting lists and immigration numbers, but never enough for some people.
Economically I expect a middling performance, with most other developed countries also in the economic doldrums, dragged down by demographics and ageing industries.
Farage will enjoy the limelight, but the ongoing car crash across the Atlantic will tarnish him significantly.
I am not particularly a Royal watcher, but the King does look rather old and frail. I can't see him lasting more than a couple of years, so William will be on his best behaviour, in public at least. I think he will be a rather headstrong King when the time comes, and that will adversely impacted support for the Monarchy, particularly in other Commonwealth Realms.
"Channel migrants: Home Office figures in 2024 show 36,816 crossed - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y45dmg2pjo
That doesn’t rule out a recovery later on, however.
Who else is responsible for the running down of all areas of public life over the last decade?
I don't think Starmer was being honest with his Ming Vase strategy (it clearly worked, but didn't deliver the mandate needed to restructure the country), but it's not just in the last six months that things have been going backwards.
An ironic 'upside' of this is that it matters less now because the advances in drone warfare (and we must learn all we can from Ukraine both defensively and offensively) may make lots of gear and tactics either redundant or far less useful.
Meanwhile, a VI from one of the more established players, released yesterday by the look of it;
LAB: 30% (-2)
CON: 25% (-1)
RFM: 20% (+2)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 7% (+2)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 12-16 Dec.
Changes w/ 8 Oct.
https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk/post/3lemmhat4ps2h
Anything involving oldies, including the NHS, has had money poured into it.
Yes, the Conservatives were responsible for that but I didn't see any other party opposing it.
But, the Brown/Blair government were little better, never funding it properly and salami slicing it every 2-3 years, and Starmer hasn't even started to rise to the challenge- contrast with Schulz or the Nordics, yet alone Poland.
If the Defence Review this year produces a credible 10 year rearmament plan, with the funds and leadership to implement it, then I'll be happy to change my mind.
(BBC news has a US partner now?)
The incident itself:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4x88455qpt
https://atmoszero.energy/technology/