It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future… – politicalbetting.com

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

ohnotnow said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Musk a ‘bloody hero’

... Mr Farage has claimed that Mr Musk would help Reform win the youth vote because he is an “absolute hero figure” to young people.

He credited the richest man in the world as a “huge help” in connecting the party with young people.

Describing Mr Musk as a “bloody hero”, Mr Farage said: “The shades, the bomber jacket, the whole vibe. Elon makes us cool.

“Reform only wins the next election if it gets the youth vote. The youth vote is the key. Of course you need voters of all ages, but if you get a wave of youth enthusiasm you can change everything.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/28/elon-musk-fact-check-badenoch-fakery-tweet/ (£££)

He's certainly inspired me this festive period.

ohnotnow said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Musk a ‘bloody hero’

... Mr Farage has claimed that Mr Musk would help Reform win the youth vote because he is an “absolute hero figure” to young people.

He credited the richest man in the world as a “huge help” in connecting the party with young people.

Describing Mr Musk as a “bloody hero”, Mr Farage said: “The shades, the bomber jacket, the whole vibe. Elon makes us cool.

“Reform only wins the next election if it gets the youth vote. The youth vote is the key. Of course you need voters of all ages, but if you get a wave of youth enthusiasm you can change everything.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/28/elon-musk-fact-check-badenoch-fakery-tweet/ (£££)

He's certainly inspired me this festive period.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

BlancheLivermore said:

If you want to grow the economy, the first rule is: don't demand that extremely long lockdowns get extended even further

How many billions bigger a black hole would there be if we'd followed Slalom's lockdown advice?

The second rule, which would be the first rule if our new PM hadn't been such an imbecile during Covid, is don't massively increase the cost of employing people

I guess having "a laser like focus on growth" doesn't specify whether one is focused on promoting or destroying it

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

More importantly, any poll at this stage tells us nothing about the next election. It tells us about national vibes right now, but not the next election.

Either the stuff the government is announcing and doing will work- in which case, the government will do better than this in 2028/9. Or it won't, in which case they will do far worse.

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

'The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the general election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July . The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'

Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

More importantly, any poll at this stage tells us nothing about the next election. It tells us about national vibes right now, but not the next election.

Either the stuff the government is announcing and doing will work- in which case, the government will do better than this in 2028/9. Or it won't, in which case they will do far worse.

In late 2020/2021 the MRPs had the Tories winning a majority/or the largest party in a hung parliament.

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Foxy said:

ohnotnow said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Musk a ‘bloody hero’

... Mr Farage has claimed that Mr Musk would help Reform win the youth vote because he is an “absolute hero figure” to young people.

He credited the richest man in the world as a “huge help” in connecting the party with young people.

Describing Mr Musk as a “bloody hero”, Mr Farage said: “The shades, the bomber jacket, the whole vibe. Elon makes us cool.

“Reform only wins the next election if it gets the youth vote. The youth vote is the key. Of course you need voters of all ages, but if you get a wave of youth enthusiasm you can change everything.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/28/elon-musk-fact-check-badenoch-fakery-tweet/ (£££)

He's certainly inspired me this festive period.

Nigel Farage says Elon Musk is "an absolute hero figure" to young Britons.

Simply untrue for most young people

YouGov had Musk approval

18-24
approve 10%
disapprove 74%

25-49
Approve 20%
Disapprove 64%

https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3leczosj6wc2d

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

'The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the general election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July . The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'

Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform

Some people really need more to do in their lives. Surely street-sweeping would be more useful!

ohnotnow said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Musk a ‘bloody hero’

... Mr Farage has claimed that Mr Musk would help Reform win the youth vote because he is an “absolute hero figure” to young people.

He credited the richest man in the world as a “huge help” in connecting the party with young people.

Describing Mr Musk as a “bloody hero”, Mr Farage said: “The shades, the bomber jacket, the whole vibe. Elon makes us cool.

“Reform only wins the next election if it gets the youth vote. The youth vote is the key. Of course you need voters of all ages, but if you get a wave of youth enthusiasm you can change everything.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/28/elon-musk-fact-check-badenoch-fakery-tweet/ (£££)

He's certainly inspired me this festive period.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

My prediction for 2025: H5N1 will become a global pandemic.

Hope I'm very bad at predictions.

It does seem to be spreading amongst a whole bunch of different mammals in the USA. Just as RFK takes over there at Health.

Just as well there's no precedent for a virus jumping species via an intermediate host in conditions of poor animal husbandry and hygiene.

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

My prediction for 2025: H5N1 will become a global pandemic.

Hope I'm very bad at predictions.

It does seem to be spreading amongst a whole bunch of different mammals in the USA. Just as RFK takes over there at Health.

Just as well there's no precedent for a virus jumping species via an intermediate host in conditions of poor animal husbandry and hygiene.

H5N1 BirdFlu just sequenced by @CDCgov from severe Louisiana patient

Most important, the H5 virus mutated inside the single patient to gain an ability to bind human receptors in the upper respiratory tract..
https://x.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1872473233922134503

Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.

Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be.
Yet.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ohnotnow said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Musk a ‘bloody hero’

... Mr Farage has claimed that Mr Musk would help Reform win the youth vote because he is an “absolute hero figure” to young people.

He credited the richest man in the world as a “huge help” in connecting the party with young people.

Describing Mr Musk as a “bloody hero”, Mr Farage said: “The shades, the bomber jacket, the whole vibe. Elon makes us cool.

“Reform only wins the next election if it gets the youth vote. The youth vote is the key. Of course you need voters of all ages, but if you get a wave of youth enthusiasm you can change everything.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/28/elon-musk-fact-check-badenoch-fakery-tweet/ (£££)

He's certainly inspired me this festive period.

Old photo? Isn't Musk supposed to be on these new slimming pills injections (as is Trump according to some)?

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.

India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.

CatMan said:

Pagan2 said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

Some online are suggesting a UK-Canada economic and defence union.

Up for it.

Get Canada into the EU with the UK. The Biggest trading block in the World

Why would canada want to join a failure like the eu?

Genuine question, how is the EU a failure?

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!

AUKUS is essentially a defence tech sharing alliance, with a particular focus on nuclear subs for Australia.

NZ is unlikely to join due to its long-standing anti-nuclear policy (also why ANZUS, an actual defence alliance, dissolved).

Also, once you involve the U.S. it is essentially US-run.

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)

Irrelevant.

There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.

There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.

On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.

Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)

Irrelevant.

There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.

There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.

On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.

Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth

Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.

India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.

India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway

BlancheLivermore said:

If you want to grow the economy, the first rule is: don't demand that extremely long lockdowns get extended even further

How many billions bigger a black hole would there be if we'd followed Slalom's lockdown advice?

The second rule, which would be the first rule if our new PM hadn't been such an imbecile during Covid, is don't massively increase the cost of employing people

I guess having "a laser like focus on growth" doesn't specify whether one is focused on promoting or destroying it

HYUFD said:

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)

Irrelevant.

There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.

There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.

On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.

Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth

Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?

Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans

Carnyx said:

ohnotnow said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

My prediction for 2025: H5N1 will become a global pandemic.

Hope I'm very bad at predictions.

It does seem to be spreading amongst a whole bunch of different mammals in the USA. Just as RFK takes over there at Health.

Just as well there's no precedent for a virus jumping species via an intermediate host in conditions of poor animal husbandry and hygiene.

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

My prediction for 2025: H5N1 will become a global pandemic.

Hope I'm very bad at predictions.

It does seem to be spreading amongst a whole bunch of different mammals in the USA. Just as RFK takes over there at Health.

Just as well there's no precedent for a virus jumping species via an intermediate host in conditions of poor animal husbandry and hygiene.

H5N1 BirdFlu just sequenced by @CDCgov from severe Louisiana patient

Most important, the H5 virus mutated inside the single patient to gain an ability to bind human receptors in the upper respiratory tract..
https://x.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1872473233922134503

Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.

Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be.
Yet.

At least the planning for the next pandemic but one might turn out to be relevant this time. If they can find it.

It's on page 37496 sub-section D, footnote 4, in faint writing, of the unfinished Covid enquiry report. You just need to skim through the preceding 37495 pages of tittle-tattle and who said what to whom to get the gist. Something, something 'lab leak', something something 'Wales', something something 'oh well, here we go again'.

Actually, I was thinking of the plan they had in place - but seem to have ignored anyway. One hopes that SKS is rather different in his approach.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.

India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.

India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway

Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?

I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.

Starmer made more net gains than Blair.

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

My prediction for 2025: H5N1 will become a global pandemic.

Hope I'm very bad at predictions.

It does seem to be spreading amongst a whole bunch of different mammals in the USA. Just as RFK takes over there at Health.

Just as well there's no precedent for a virus jumping species via an intermediate host in conditions of poor animal husbandry and hygiene.

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

My prediction for 2025: H5N1 will become a global pandemic.

Hope I'm very bad at predictions.

It does seem to be spreading amongst a whole bunch of different mammals in the USA. Just as RFK takes over there at Health.

Just as well there's no precedent for a virus jumping species via an intermediate host in conditions of poor animal husbandry and hygiene.

H5N1 BirdFlu just sequenced by @CDCgov from severe Louisiana patient

Most important, the H5 virus mutated inside the single patient to gain an ability to bind human receptors in the upper respiratory tract..
https://x.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1872473233922134503

Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.

Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be.
Yet.

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)

Irrelevant.

There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.

There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.

On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.

Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth

Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?

Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans

No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Carnyx said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.

India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.

India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway

Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?

I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.

Honestly, I’d be delighted if the Singaporeans sent over a cadre to teach us how to govern ourselves properly.

I remember reading some 20-30 years ago that there was a Church of Scotland minister in a Scottish parish, who just been tecruited from Botswana. I couldn't help reflecting that it returned the compliment Dr Livingstone paid the Tswana.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.

Starmer made more net gains than Blair.

It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.

Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).

But, three years on, the position was transformed.

Nigelb said:

This has the potential to be a much bigger battle than the upcoming one over tech visas.

You think tech bros rebelled against nativists in their coalition over H1Bs?

Just wait until the reaction from farmers and the agricultural lobby when they try to deport Mexican laborers.

Nativist ideals are always going to run into people acting in their own enlightened self-interest.

They seek to make you poor, and have to hide that fact, but reality keeps getting in the way...
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1873039454941921436

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)

Irrelevant.

There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.

There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.

On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.

Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth

Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?

Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans

No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.

Not entirely in my experience, I once mistook a Kiwi for an Aussie in a pub and was corrected in extremely vehement terms

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.

Starmer made more net gains than Blair.

It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.

Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).

But, three years on, the position was transformed.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.

Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!

AUKUS is essentially a defence tech sharing alliance, with a particular focus on nuclear subs for Australia.

NZ is unlikely to join due to its long-standing anti-nuclear policy (also why ANZUS, an actual defence alliance, dissolved).

Also, once you involve the U.S. it is essentially US-run.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.

Starmer made more net gains than Blair.

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.

Starmer made more net gains than Blair.

Throughout his political career Starmer has consistently been underestimated, yet has triumphed over multiple obstacles?

Has his luck run out? He seems to be carrying the curse of the monkey's paw at the moment, but he isn't done yet.

MattW said:

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

Cyclefree said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

williamglenn said:

https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.

It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?

It seems to me to be quite in order to ask regulators how regulation can be improved; they are the ones who are closest to their industries or sectors.

And it seems that it is in the remit:

Most of Britain's economic regulators already have a Growth Duty enshrined in their statute, having come into effect in March 2017 under the Deregulation Act of two years earlier.

I think we have a late winner for Freudian slip of the year.

Good thinking Batman - let's get the Management Consultants in, instead of anyone who understands the industry !

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together

I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?

It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.

India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.

South Africa should be similar and friendly but has been fundamentally corrupted.

Though I hate it, personally, I can sort of understand the geopolitical logic in India playing both sides. But morally they should have more sympathy with Western values, given their governance and constitution.

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

But through 1979/80/81, was Thatcher seen as a Thatcher-as-we-remember-her? Before my time, to be honest, but my understanding is not really.

In late 1979 and 1980 we were heading for Michael Foot as PM and in late 1981 we were heading for Roy Jenkins as PM if you believed polls at the time. It was the Falklands War which really saved Thatcher and a gradually recovering economy with falling inflation

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting from more in common

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1873085043889062130?t=O-gsF3zrUkCvUUChOP_SaQ&s=19

I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.

I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.

Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same

I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.

I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.

Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion

One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.

Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong

We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further

The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well

And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections

I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.

At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.

The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has

I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.

Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair

Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.

Starmer made more net gains than Blair.

It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.

Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).

But, three years on, the position was transformed.

Thatcher had a strategy.

Part of me genuinely wonders if Starmer is doing a form of cosplay where he thinks if he's making himself really unpopular 6 months in it's because he's doing the right thing and exercising good governance and the electorate will come round and he'll inevitably win a second term.

There's an awful lot of wishful thinking going on.