politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Main party switchers to UKIP in the key battlegrounds repre

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?

I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?

And the tweet about the Mansion tax. Crass beyond belief. And it is already spent isn't it? http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/six-things-you-need-to-know-about-labours-mansion-tax

Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?

I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?

And the tweet about the Mansion tax. Crass beyond belief. And it is already spent isn't it? http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/six-things-you-need-to-know-about-labours-mansion-tax

Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?

In theory, there should be room for a centre-right Unionist Party. In time, I think this will emerge. Scottish Labour seem to be on their last legs.

In other news...

It's difficult to ascertain what the Germans really think about this Greek thing. Merkel seems to want to say 'take austerity or leave the euro'. Her coalition partners, however, are bricking themselves.

It's a big recipe for uncertainty.

Greek yields are going higher and the markets are questioning the wisdom of Spain yields thru the UK.

@IsabelHardman: Labour frontbencher says ‘no-one really believes' what party has promised on NHS will solve its problems http://t.co/Ae8CDn1CHx

Morris_Dancer said:

Well, that didn't take long (it was posted just over two hours ago):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11325691/Labour-pledges-1000-Scottish-nurses-funded-by-English-mansion-tax.html

Has Murphy lost the plot?
With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for.
Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England.
Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.

antifrank said:

On Dunbartonshire East, the patent antifrank SNP detector predicts the following result:

Lib Dems 20.2%
Labour 31%
Conservatives 14.1%
SNP 33.1%
Others 1.6%
Turnout 83%

SMAPS
Lib Dems: 26%
Con: 10%
Lab: 23%
SNP: 39%

Another crushing an all encompassing victory for the SNP. Guaranteed fact.

Cyclefree said:

TheWatcher said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Well, that didn't take long (it was posted just over two hours ago):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11325691/Labour-pledges-1000-Scottish-nurses-funded-by-English-mansion-tax.html

Blimey. How many times can Labour spend the 'Mansion Tax'?

About as many times as they have promised to spend the Bankers' Bonus Tax.

You beat me to it.

Flightpath said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Well, that didn't take long (it was posted just over two hours ago):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11325691/Labour-pledges-1000-Scottish-nurses-funded-by-English-mansion-tax.html

Has Murphy lost the plot?
With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for.
Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England.
Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.

Surely this is a Holyrood 2016 campaign because health is devolved.

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?

I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?

And the tweet about the Mansion tax. Crass beyond belief. And it is already spent isn't it? http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/six-things-you-need-to-know-about-labours-mansion-tax

Is that the Unionist alliance stuffed in the first week of 2015?

Well, they are not making it easy!

antifrank said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.

I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.

You are telling me!

Idiots. Labour just don't know how to handle a party that promises to outspend them. Probably never happened before to any material extent although they did struggle with Tommy Sheridan and his groupies a few years ago.

When did the Tories promise to outspend them David, or is it those other losers the Lib Dems.. SNP are the only party that is able to balance its budget and live within its means so obviously not them you are referring to, or are we at the porkies again.

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.

I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.

DavidL has a "rum choice" it seems...

due to tribal bent he has only losers to choose from. If only he could vote for the best party he would have a real choice.

antifrank said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?

I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?

And the tweet about the Mansion tax. Crass beyond belief. And it is already spent isn't it? http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/six-things-you-need-to-know-about-labours-mansion-tax

Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?

There isn't the slightest sign of that in the opinion polls as yet.

LOL, if you had said shifty I might have thought you were for real. Those two sets of clowns will not attract anyone outside their very small core of no hope loyalists.

taffys said:

US oil falls below 50

It seems there's no bottom to this market.

Petrol is at $2.00 in the USA - a gallon! Don't worry though that is a US gallon. Last summer would have been a brilliant time to buy a Mustang.

Should we not be realistic (optimistic?) and expect it to go back to about $80/barrel?

Flightpath said:

Should we not be realistic (optimistic?) and expect it to go back to about $80/barrel?

End of next year is the estimate. And significantly higher price due to how much production has been cut back now

Socrates said:

It wouldn't surprise me if Murphy's anti-English tweet was signed off by the son of Ralph "almost want the English to lose to the Nazis" Miliband.

Jim has said he takes orders from no-one , and certainly not London.

Happy New Year everyone. Looks like we are all going to have a jolly old time in the next four months.

My first tupence worth of the year -- I am perplexed by Ed M's latest soundbite: " Hope, not falsehood". Who actually goes around in 2015 using the word 'falsehood'?

Absolute mayhem on the oil markets I see. Another drop of more than 5% today.

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

In other news...

@thetimes: Panic as euro hits nine-year low against the dollar http://t.co/9ZYA2LaFXp (Pic: Reuters) http://t.co/jaQcfD129U

But haven't we been told that the Eurozones problem has been an overvalued currency? Surely a Euro-devaluation is what is needed? Eurozone exports getting cheaper etc.



Certainly my summer holiday is looking better value...

True in part but a 15% drop in the value of the Euro against the dollar means that they lose almost a third of the benefit of the drop in the oil price. It is still good for them but not the huge benefit that economies in other parts of the world are getting.

By comparison the pound Sterling is still trading slightly above where it was 18 months ago vs the dollar.

TheWatcher said:

DavidL said:

TheWatcher said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Well, that didn't take long (it was posted just over two hours ago):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11325691/Labour-pledges-1000-Scottish-nurses-funded-by-English-mansion-tax.html

Blimey. How many times can Labour spend the 'Mansion Tax'?

If the bankers bonus tax is anything to go by they have barely warmed up yet.

Are they hoping to raise a £million a house?

Actually they claim that they will raise £1.2bn a year on houses worth more than £2m.

Hmm... £1.2 bn a year means the Scottish share is £96m (8%). Is that really enough to equip, clothe, manage and provide the medication for 1,000 nurses? I think not.

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

After that Jim Murphy tweet and the recent news on the oil price, isn't it about time that each home nations only gets to spend what is raised locally? I'm sick of my money being sent north to subsidise a nation that is constantly flirting with leaving the union - and then having the cheek to claim politics is rigged in favour of us!

Did you never listen during the last 3 years , regardless of oil we send more money south than we ever get back, ie we more than pay our way and some of yours to boot. You southerners live in a fantasy land.

I'm sure you'll jump at the chance to pay your own way and be limited to what is raised in Scotland then.

I would be very happy to, if only Westminster allocated the funds correctly. No chance of that ever happening.

"correctly" - as estimated by secret Canadians ?

you are worse than Tapestry

Is that Bayeaux reckoning ?

LOL

Jim Murphy and SLAB have finally lost the plot, I think today’s performance will kill off any hope of Scottish Tories holding their noses and voting for SLAB.

I’ve focused my betting on William Hill’s SLAB seats market. I’ve built a good position in the 0-20 seats market, I’ll make a profit if SLAB win 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and will break even at 16-20 seats. I built most of my 0-5 position at 125/1 (now down to 8/1) and it would pay out £17,000. Realistically though 11-15 seats at 5/1, is probably the best value bet.

My sense is that the SNP surge still has some way to go and would anticipate SNP levelling out at around 50%. I think SLAB will struggle to hold onto the 20% support level, let alone their current 25%. I don’t think there is anything SLAB can do to turn things around in Scotland by GE2015, so they should just focus on a proper game plan for Holyrood 2016.

According to the front page of the BBC I see Ed M is declaring this is a 'once in a generation' election. I know it is expected, but does that sort of talk fool anyone? When do parties not argue that a monumental choice for change is being made, if not in the exact words he has chosen this time?

TGOHF said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

North Sea oil is high cost, our oil and gas industry is dead. Big economic blow.

TGOHF said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.

Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

If you can't get wages to rise to meet costs, perhaps costs can fall to meet wages...

All sorts of goods and services are about to get cheaper.

TGOHF said:

FalseFlag said:

TGOHF said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

North Sea oil is high cost, our oil and gas industry is dead. Big economic blow.

But we are a net importer of fuel - ok the North Sea takes a punch but the rest of the economy is made up.

all we have are financial services and borrowing, do they use much oil

taffys said:

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

If you can't get wages to rise to meet costs, perhaps costs can fall to meet wages...

All sorts of goods and services are about to get cheaper.

cheaper Chinese goods and cheap burgers , wow

TGOHF said:

rottenborough said:

TGOHF said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.

Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.

By that logic $250 a barrel and we would be in clover - oh wait - petrol would be £2+ and industry and consumers would be rooked.

Surely on balance to the WHOLE economy of the Uk, cheap oil is good news ?

petrol is almost all tax, hence the huge difference between oil halving and petrol coming down a few pence

Re the SLAB health spending - what is so insane is that it is a devolved matter, and the only influence the GE has on the specifics of Scottish health policy is on overall budget allocation (Barnett formula and all that) (ignoring specific issues such as cross-border cooperation on particular schemes).

I was tempted to check the date but as it is too obviously 5 January rather than 1 April I can only switch off and give the thing a boot, to see if SLAB start making more sense tomorrow.

TGOHF said:

FalseFlag said:

TGOHF said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

North Sea oil is high cost, our oil and gas industry is dead. Big economic blow.

But we are a net importer of fuel - ok the North Sea takes a punch but the rest of the economy is made up.

North Sea Oil and Gas employs 370,000 people. That is quite a hit if it does all collapse.

That said I don't think it will. The existence of a finite and irreplaceable resource will always encourage development and exploration and as it becomes scarcer it becomes more valuable.

TGOHF said:

rottenborough said:

TGOHF said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.

For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.

North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.

Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.

By that logic $250 a barrel and we would be in clover - oh wait - petrol would be £2+ and industry and consumers would be rooked.

Surely on balance to the WHOLE economy of the Uk, cheap oil is good news ?

Only very marginally. When the price rises again it's the low cost producers who will bounce back not us.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Well, that didn't take long (it was posted just over two hours ago):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11325691/Labour-pledges-1000-Scottish-nurses-funded-by-English-mansion-tax.html

Has Murphy lost the plot?
With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for.
Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England.
Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.

Are you daft, the only powers being proposed are control of road signs. They are not getting control of any more money.

Does that include the road numbers - they already control allocation of the 789 A and B numbers but will they have the powers for renumbering and using a different prefix eg N as in RoI?

One thing I would like to see is the end of the petit nationalism that is resulting in the north end of the M6 being classed as A74(M) and M74

Actually it's nothing to do with nationalism: it was always the A74 etc - Carlisle to Edinburgh is A7 and has been since the start of the road numbering system in the ?1930s, so all the other roads related to it are 7**. Also, as the motorway for a long time was not (and is not, IIRC) continuous north of Carlisle there is no point in giving it a continuous number. But the main point is the previous one.

DavidL said:

The falling oil price will:

Marginally improve our balance of payments as we are net importers

Reduce inflation, possibly to deflationary levels (not necessarily a bad thing if it is from an external source).

Massively reduce overall investment in the north sea in a way that will probably reduce investment overall.

Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).

Bring down the FTSE (pretty irrelevant to the UK economy but might also reduce the tax take a bit).

Make it easier to get a hotel room in Aberdeen.

I think only the last one is unalloyed good news (unless you are in the hotel business of course).

Without the oil industry, whatever reason is there to stay overnight in Aberdeen?

(although there is currently a Harlequin Duck at the mouth of the Don and it is a hell of a drive for a day trip....)

And then there were four

BREAKING NEWS: BBC

Four hospitals in England have now declared "major incidents" because of demand at A&E

A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.

volcanopete said:

A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.

Definitely a contender for the Tin foil hat posting of the year so far.

Richard_Tyndall said:

volcanopete said:

A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.

Definitely a contender for the Tin foil hat posting of the year so far.

Nah, there's been a lot of bollocks spouted by the climate change deniers that tops that.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Carnyx said:

Actually it's nothing to do with nationalism: it was always the A74 etc - Carlisle to Edinburgh is A7 and has been since the start of the road numbering system in the ?1930s, so all the other roads related to it are 7**. Also, as the motorway for a long time was not (and is not, IIRC) continuous north of Carlisle there is no point in giving it a continuous number. But the main point is the previous one.

Alas not true. If you drive along the southern end of the A74(M) where the signs on the motorway and nearby roads say A74(M) it is on a metal plate on many of those signs, underneath it reads M6. such as this one at Junction 15 of the A74(M) at Beattock where the plate fell off.

http://www.cbrd.co.uk/roadsfaq/img/t_m6scotland.jpg

http://www.cbrd.co.uk/roadsfaq/


Also, From a tendering advertisement for building the motorway

"tendering advertisement for the section from Water of Milk to Ecclefechan published on 23 April 1992. A few days later, in the Edinburgh Gazette of 1 May, 1992, an Explanatory Note was appended to a routine notice announcing the making of the Scheme for a section of the route north and south of Beattock. This read:

EXPLANATORY NOTE
The Scheme and associated Appropriation and Side Roads Orders published in draft on 31st August 1990 included reference to the Glasgow-Carlisle Special Road (M74). The Secretary of State has decided to change the number of the upgraded sections of the Glasgow-Carlisle Trunk Road (A74) lying to the south of where the existing M74 ends at Nether Abington. Each section, on completion of upgrading, will be renumbered A74(M). Once all the sections of the A74 between Carlisle and Nether Abington have been upgraded, the entire length of the M74 and the A74(M) from Glasgow to Carlisle will be renumbered, and form part of, the M6. The Scheme and associated Orders have been amended to reflect these changes, where necessary.

However by the time the scheme was finished numbering had been devolved from the Department for Transport to the Scottish Government and they refused to do it.

http://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/wiki/index.php?title=M74_and_A74(M)_History

Well, that is news to me: but all it seems to show is that the Scots had the sense not to confuse everyone by changing the road numbers. The M74 had been known by that name for a long time, as was implicit in my comment, with a long and independent existence, and there was no sense in changing its name to the M6 just cos it got plugged up to the M6.

Anorak said:

DavidL said:

The falling oil price will:
Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).

Eh? Duty increases as sales volume increases - it's per litre, not a percentage of price.

Therefore cheap oil = higher consumption of petrol/diesel = more revenue = positive effect on borrowing. This ignores the impact on Treasury income from oil industry profits, of course. And Joe Public still has more moolah in his pocket for buying a new TV, etc.

Also: Glanfarclas is magical - my lovely wife bought me a bottle for my 40th, aged since the year of my birth

Duty is indeed a fixed price - currently just under 58p a litre. But there is then VAT on top of that and the VAT take will be dropping as the petrol price drops. More importantly the Government take on every barrel of oil will be dropping as this is about 70% of the price of every barrel of crude.

DavidL said:

The falling oil price will:

Marginally improve our balance of payments as we are net importers

Reduce inflation, possibly to deflationary levels (not necessarily a bad thing if it is from an external source).

Massively reduce overall investment in the north sea in a way that will probably reduce investment overall.

Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).

Bring down the FTSE (pretty irrelevant to the UK economy but might also reduce the tax take a bit).

Make it easier to get a hotel room in Aberdeen.

I think only the last one is unalloyed good news (unless you are in the hotel business of course).

I'd say the impact on the BOP is good short term really bad long term as NS oil becomes less competitive so we produce less and have to import more.

Anorak said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

volcanopete said:

A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.

Definitely a contender for the Tin foil hat posting of the year so far.

Nah, there's been a lot of bollocks spouted by the climate change deniers that tops that.

Ah, another loon who knows nothing about what he is commenting on. I should have known that from the rubbish you were spouting about oil revenue.