I'm willing to stake 25 quid on Labour having zero to 3 MPs in Scotland.
Should have got on WillHill a couple of weeks ago, you'd have got 125/1. I was kicking myself for missing that and "only" getting 40/1. I see it is now down to 8/1.
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?
In theory, there should be room for a centre-right Unionist Party. In time, I think this will emerge. Scottish Labour seem to be on their last legs.
It's difficult to ascertain what the Germans really think about this Greek thing. Merkel seems to want to say 'take austerity or leave the euro'. Her coalition partners, however, are bricking themselves.
It's a big recipe for uncertainty.
Greek yields are going higher and the markets are questioning the wisdom of Spain yields thru the UK.
Has Murphy lost the plot? With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for. Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England. Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
After that Jim Murphy tweet and the recent news on the oil price, isn't it about time that each home nations only gets to spend what is raised locally? I'm sick of my money being sent north to subsidise a nation that is constantly flirting with leaving the union - and then having the cheek to claim politics is rigged in favour of us!
Did you never listen during the last 3 years , regardless of oil we send more money south than we ever get back, ie we more than pay our way and some of yours to boot. You southerners live in a fantasy land.
I'm sure you'll jump at the chance to pay your own way and be limited to what is raised in Scotland then.
I would be very happy to, if only Westminster allocated the funds correctly. No chance of that ever happening.
Has Murphy lost the plot? With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for. Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England. Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
Surely this is a Holyrood 2016 campaign because health is devolved.
After that Jim Murphy tweet and the recent news on the oil price, isn't it about time that each home nations only gets to spend what is raised locally? I'm sick of my money being sent north to subsidise a nation that is constantly flirting with leaving the union - and then having the cheek to claim politics is rigged in favour of us!
Did you never listen during the last 3 years , regardless of oil we send more money south than we ever get back, ie we more than pay our way and some of yours to boot. You southerners live in a fantasy land.
I'm sure you'll jump at the chance to pay your own way and be limited to what is raised in Scotland then.
I would be very happy to, if only Westminster allocated the funds correctly. No chance of that ever happening.
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
You are telling me!
Idiots. Labour just don't know how to handle a party that promises to outspend them. Probably never happened before to any material extent although they did struggle with Tommy Sheridan and his groupies a few years ago.
When did the Tories promise to outspend them David, or is it those other losers the Lib Dems.. SNP are the only party that is able to balance its budget and live within its means so obviously not them you are referring to, or are we at the porkies again.
But haven't we been told that the Eurozones problem has been an overvalued currency? Surely a Euro-devaluation is what is needed? Eurozone exports getting cheaper etc.
Certainly my summer holiday is looking better value...
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
DavidL has a "rum choice" it seems...
due to tribal bent he has only losers to choose from. If only he could vote for the best party he would have a real choice.
Has Murphy lost the plot? With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for. Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England. Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
Surely this is a Holyrood 2016 campaign because health is devolved.
SLab is all over the place, for the last month they have been hammering away at 3 talking point - accusing the SNP for failing to act on 3 policy areas that Holyrood doesn't have any control over.
For instance Sturgeon has been repeatedly criticised for not introducing a 50p top tax rate.
ON blaance I think it is some kind of dada-ist art project.
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
You are telling me!
Idiots. Labour just don't know how to handle a party that promises to outspend them. Probably never happened before to any material extent although they did struggle with Tommy Sheridan and his groupies a few years ago.
SNP are the only party that is able to balance its budget and live within its means
With oil at $50 a barrel, it would have been fun to watch IndyScotland implode.
This quote implies that BT still doesn't get it: One Better Together strategist remarked after the result that he didn’t need to look at the polls because he knew ‘how we won it: we scared the bejesus out of them’.
That is not how they won: that is how BT very nearly lost.
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
You are telling me!
Idiots. Labour just don't know how to handle a party that promises to outspend them. Probably never happened before to any material extent although they did struggle with Tommy Sheridan and his groupies a few years ago.
SNP are the only party that is able to balance its budget and live within its means
With oil at $50 a barrel, it would have been fun to watch IndyScotland implode.
Oil at $50 would have triggered another referendum - to get the YES vote reversed..
Blimey. How many times can Labour spend the 'Mansion Tax'?
About as many times as they have promised to spend the Bankers' Bonus Tax.
You beat me to it.
This may come as a surprise but you can suggest ways for spending money WITHOUT actually spending it. You should be embarrassed that Labour can come up with 9 alternative realities, all of which are preferable to the Tories' one idea
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?
There isn't the slightest sign of that in the opinion polls as yet.
LOL, if you had said shifty I might have thought you were for real. Those two sets of clowns will not attract anyone outside their very small core of no hope loyalists.
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
DavidL has a "rum choice" it seems...
due to tribal bent he has only losers to choose from. If only he could vote for the best party he would have a real choice.
A choice of one is a rather North Korean choice!
Thanks for tipping East Dunbartonshire. I got on at good value in the summer, and promise to spend the winnings improving Scottish exports in the form of Islay malt!
On Dunbartonshire East, the patent antifrank SNP detector predicts the following result:
Lib Dems 20.2% Labour 31% Conservatives 14.1% SNP 33.1% Others 1.6% Turnout 83%
Excellent. Like others, I'm on Labour at 1/2 and the SNP at 50/1
Anyone want to lay me the Lib dems?
I think Swinson is going to hold on.
Paddy Power is 9-4 on the Lib Dems there now.
Jo Swinson has/had £45,000 in her war chest - information provided here by a PB poster (ultimately from the Electoral Commission) the other day. Lib Dems fighting on approximately even terms here.
Has Murphy lost the plot? With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for. Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England. Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
Are you daft, the only powers being proposed are control of road signs. They are not getting control of any more money.
Happy New Year everyone. Looks like we are all going to have a jolly old time in the next four months.
My first tupence worth of the year -- I am perplexed by Ed M's latest soundbite: " Hope, not falsehood". Who actually goes around in 2015 using the word 'falsehood'?
After that Jim Murphy tweet and the recent news on the oil price, isn't it about time that each home nations only gets to spend what is raised locally? I'm sick of my money being sent north to subsidise a nation that is constantly flirting with leaving the union - and then having the cheek to claim politics is rigged in favour of us!
Did you never listen during the last 3 years , regardless of oil we send more money south than we ever get back, ie we more than pay our way and some of yours to boot. You southerners live in a fantasy land.
I'm sure you'll jump at the chance to pay your own way and be limited to what is raised in Scotland then.
I would be very happy to, if only Westminster allocated the funds correctly. No chance of that ever happening.
But haven't we been told that the Eurozones problem has been an overvalued currency? Surely a Euro-devaluation is what is needed? Eurozone exports getting cheaper etc.
Certainly my summer holiday is looking better value...
After that Jim Murphy tweet and the recent news on the oil price, isn't it about time that each home nations only gets to spend what is raised locally? I'm sick of my money being sent north to subsidise a nation that is constantly flirting with leaving the union - and then having the cheek to claim politics is rigged in favour of us!
Did you never listen during the last 3 years , regardless of oil we send more money south than we ever get back, ie we more than pay our way and some of yours to boot. You southerners live in a fantasy land.
I'm sure you'll jump at the chance to pay your own way and be limited to what is raised in Scotland then.
I would be very happy to, if only Westminster allocated the funds correctly. No chance of that ever happening.
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
You are telling me!
Idiots. Labour just don't know how to handle a party that promises to outspend them. Probably never happened before to any material extent although they did struggle with Tommy Sheridan and his groupies a few years ago.
SNP are the only party that is able to balance its budget and live within its means
With oil at $50 a barrel, it would have been fun to watch IndyScotland implode.
It will not be there long and as previously said it was just the bonus money for fripperies and gee gaws
But haven't we been told that the Eurozones problem has been an overvalued currency? Surely a Euro-devaluation is what is needed? Eurozone exports getting cheaper etc.
Certainly my summer holiday is looking better value...
True in part but a 15% drop in the value of the Euro against the dollar means that they lose almost a third of the benefit of the drop in the oil price. It is still good for them but not the huge benefit that economies in other parts of the world are getting.
By comparison the pound Sterling is still trading slightly above where it was 18 months ago vs the dollar.
Mr. Nabavi, is that genuine, or a spoof account [the 95% tweet not the poster]?
The Conservatives should put it on a campaign poster.
If they put it on a poster, it would only help Labour. "Give the South East a kicking" would be wildly popular everywhere in the UK apart from the SE itself.
I'm happy to stick my neck out on this.
Extra taxes on the English, to fund additional public spending on the Scottish, will go down like a cup of cold sick, South of the Border.
If it's only for Scotland, then yes. If it's for the whole of the UK, then no.
I honestly think among the average northerner, there is more resentment towards the South East (and London) than there is towards Scotland.
How do you think the Conservatives are going to present this promise of higher taxes South of the Border, to fund public spending North of the Border, to the English electorate?
Is that tweet referring to a new "policy"? I thought it was simply restating their existing policy of a mansion tax to increase NHS spending for the whole of the UK.
EDIT: Although I'd forgotten that NHS spending is a devolved issue, so actually on second thoughts I don't really understand the tweet at all.
Blimey. How many times can Labour spend the 'Mansion Tax'?
If the bankers bonus tax is anything to go by they have barely warmed up yet.
Are they hoping to raise a £million a house?
Actually they claim that they will raise £1.2bn a year on houses worth more than £2m.
Hmm... £1.2 bn a year means the Scottish share is £96m (8%). Is that really enough to equip, clothe, manage and provide the medication for 1,000 nurses? I think not.
Mr. Antifrank, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the dismemberment of Scottish Labour's mad poster/pledge affects the polls.
I expect that it will cement the SNP lead and otherwise not do much. It may make it harder for Scottish Labour to attract tactical votes from the likes of DavidL though.
DavidL has a "rum choice" it seems...
due to tribal bent he has only losers to choose from. If only he could vote for the best party he would have a real choice.
A choice of one is a rather North Korean choice!
Thanks for tipping East Dunbartonshire. I got on at good value in the summer, and promise to spend the winnings improving Scottish exports in the form of Islay malt!
I was given a lovely bottle of Glenfarclas, "The Family Casks" 1991. Best ever I have tasted, though have to say I would never have spent that much on a bottle myself. If your are flush some time it is well worth trying.
After that Jim Murphy tweet and the recent news on the oil price, isn't it about time that each home nations only gets to spend what is raised locally? I'm sick of my money being sent north to subsidise a nation that is constantly flirting with leaving the union - and then having the cheek to claim politics is rigged in favour of us!
Did you never listen during the last 3 years , regardless of oil we send more money south than we ever get back, ie we more than pay our way and some of yours to boot. You southerners live in a fantasy land.
I'm sure you'll jump at the chance to pay your own way and be limited to what is raised in Scotland then.
I would be very happy to, if only Westminster allocated the funds correctly. No chance of that ever happening.
Blimey. How many times can Labour spend the 'Mansion Tax'?
If the bankers bonus tax is anything to go by they have barely warmed up yet.
Are they hoping to raise a £million a house?
Actually they claim that they will raise £1.2bn a year on houses worth more than £2m.
Hmm... £1.2 bn a year means the Scottish share is £96m (8%). Is that really enough to equip, clothe, manage and provide the medication for 1,000 nurses? I think not.
Factor in all the other spending pledged against the 'Mansion Tax'.
Jim Murphy and SLAB have finally lost the plot, I think today’s performance will kill off any hope of Scottish Tories holding their noses and voting for SLAB.
I’ve focused my betting on William Hill’s SLAB seats market. I’ve built a good position in the 0-20 seats market, I’ll make a profit if SLAB win 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and will break even at 16-20 seats. I built most of my 0-5 position at 125/1 (now down to 8/1) and it would pay out £17,000. Realistically though 11-15 seats at 5/1, is probably the best value bet.
My sense is that the SNP surge still has some way to go and would anticipate SNP levelling out at around 50%. I think SLAB will struggle to hold onto the 20% support level, let alone their current 25%. I don’t think there is anything SLAB can do to turn things around in Scotland by GE2015, so they should just focus on a proper game plan for Holyrood 2016.
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
However in the Short term (ie between now and May) it will be quite the reverse, with a feelgood factor developing. Certainly seeing petrol down to 108.9 at my local garage cheered up a bleak day.
This is distastrous for Ed, Ed and co. Dave and Gideon can consider themselves very lucky - however their prize may be having to sort out the mess in a government with a de jure small majority that is actually a de facto minority as a couple of dozen backbenchers will be virtually in UKIP.
According to the front page of the BBC I see Ed M is declaring this is a 'once in a generation' election. I know it is expected, but does that sort of talk fool anyone? When do parties not argue that a monumental choice for change is being made, if not in the exact words he has chosen this time?
Has Murphy lost the plot? With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for. Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England. Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
Are you daft, the only powers being proposed are control of road signs. They are not getting control of any more money.
Does that include the road numbers - they already control allocation of the 789 A and B numbers but will they have the powers for renumbering and using a different prefix eg N as in RoI?
One thing I would like to see is the end of the petit nationalism that is resulting in the north end of the M6 being classed as A74(M) and M74
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.
Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.
Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.
By that logic $250 a barrel and we would be in clover - oh wait - petrol would be £2+ and industry and consumers would be rooked.
Surely on balance to the WHOLE economy of the Uk, cheap oil is good news ?
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
Its already hit the FTSE quite hard as the FTSE is 25% resource related. Also the collapse in oil prices is the equivalent of a multi trillion quantitave easing on the economy.
This means that by the end of the year inflation will start to stir and interest rates will start going up. Which will puncture the asset (house price bubble) in the UK.
AIUI another reason oil is falling is tailing off of rapid growth in China (which is a reflection of the economic situation there)
Other than in the short term, this will not be good news for whoever is in power.
My memory must be fading a bit - wasn't there something in the dim distant past about 'One Nation Labour'? Must have been under a different leader, of course. John Smith, perhaps?
Mr MIliband of course - but that was against the backfdrop of a Union Flag with the blue washed out. Very odd subliminal message, and presumably unintended.
Mr. Nabavi, is that genuine, or a spoof account [the 95% tweet not the poster]?
The Conservatives should put it on a campaign poster.
If they put it on a poster, it would only help Labour. "Give the South East a kicking" would be wildly popular everywhere in the UK apart from the SE itself.
I'm happy to stick my neck out on this.
Extra taxes on the English, to fund additional public spending on the Scottish, will go down like a cup of cold sick, South of the Border.
The other curious thing about those SLAB tweets is that they suggest we're going to have to revise our opinions of Jim Murphy. What on earth has got into the guy (other than panic, of course)? I'd always thought of him as one of the smart Labour figures.
And his assistant has been going on about how they can work with the SNP after all. Which is a bit like a dinosaur becoming a meteorite collector. In theory possible, but a big surprise ...
So on the same day as Balls is accusing the Tories of lying about "uncosted" spending commitments SLAB are making an absolutely open ended commitment to spend more money on nurses, no matter what?
I mean, seriously, how can you vote tactically for this sort of rubbish?
Surely the sensible No voting majority in Scotland must be looking at The Scot LDs and Scottish Conservatives more positively? With SLAB going bonkers and SNP not to everyones taste there must be better prospects for a thrifty Unionist party?
There's a thrifty party, with Mr Swinney i/c the finances - slight problem it's not a Unionist party.
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.
Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.
By that logic $250 a barrel and we would be in clover - oh wait - petrol would be £2+ and industry and consumers would be rooked.
Surely on balance to the WHOLE economy of the Uk, cheap oil is good news ?
petrol is almost all tax, hence the huge difference between oil halving and petrol coming down a few pence
Re the SLAB health spending - what is so insane is that it is a devolved matter, and the only influence the GE has on the specifics of Scottish health policy is on overall budget allocation (Barnett formula and all that) (ignoring specific issues such as cross-border cooperation on particular schemes).
I was tempted to check the date but as it is too obviously 5 January rather than 1 April I can only switch off and give the thing a boot, to see if SLAB start making more sense tomorrow.
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
North Sea oil is high cost, our oil and gas industry is dead. Big economic blow.
But we are a net importer of fuel - ok the North Sea takes a punch but the rest of the economy is made up.
North Sea Oil and Gas employs 370,000 people. That is quite a hit if it does all collapse.
That said I don't think it will. The existence of a finite and irreplaceable resource will always encourage development and exploration and as it becomes scarcer it becomes more valuable.
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
North Sea oil producers, who may well have to lay off workers and abandon plans for additional exploration and so forth. Sunday Times business section was saying yesterday that a large number of small oil-related companies on UK exchanges may well be in serious trouble soon.
Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.
By that logic $250 a barrel and we would be in clover - oh wait - petrol would be £2+ and industry and consumers would be rooked.
Surely on balance to the WHOLE economy of the Uk, cheap oil is good news ?
Only very marginally. When the price rises again it's the low cost producers who will bounce back not us.
Cheaper groceries. Cheaper washing machines. Cheaper computer services. Cheaper building materials. Cheaper taxis. Cheaper anything and everything that gets delivered.
Don;t ambulances use fuel? Police cars? it all mounts up.
Basically a huge wodge of cash that was flowing out of democracies and into pockets in some of the less savoury parts of the world is no longer doing so.
Has Murphy lost the plot? With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for. Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England. Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
Are you daft, the only powers being proposed are control of road signs. They are not getting control of any more money.
Does that include the road numbers - they already control allocation of the 789 A and B numbers but will they have the powers for renumbering and using a different prefix eg N as in RoI?
One thing I would like to see is the end of the petit nationalism that is resulting in the north end of the M6 being classed as A74(M) and M74
Actually it's nothing to do with nationalism: it was always the A74 etc - Carlisle to Edinburgh is A7 and has been since the start of the road numbering system in the ?1930s, so all the other roads related to it are 7**. Also, as the motorway for a long time was not (and is not, IIRC) continuous north of Carlisle there is no point in giving it a continuous number. But the main point is the previous one.
Marginally improve our balance of payments as we are net importers
Reduce inflation, possibly to deflationary levels (not necessarily a bad thing if it is from an external source).
Massively reduce overall investment in the north sea in a way that will probably reduce investment overall.
Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Bring down the FTSE (pretty irrelevant to the UK economy but might also reduce the tax take a bit).
Make it easier to get a hotel room in Aberdeen.
I think only the last one is unalloyed good news (unless you are in the hotel business of course).
Marginally improve our balance of payments as we are net importers
Reduce inflation, possibly to deflationary levels (not necessarily a bad thing if it is from an external source).
Massively reduce overall investment in the north sea in a way that will probably reduce investment overall.
Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Bring down the FTSE (pretty irrelevant to the UK economy but might also reduce the tax take a bit).
Make it easier to get a hotel room in Aberdeen.
I think only the last one is unalloyed good news (unless you are in the hotel business of course).
Without the oil industry, whatever reason is there to stay overnight in Aberdeen?
(although there is currently a Harlequin Duck at the mouth of the Don and it is a hell of a drive for a day trip....)
My guess is that by the end of the year the low oil price will be causing major economic problems.
For who ? On balance for the Uk it is a huge benefit.
North Sea oil is high cost, our oil and gas industry is dead. Big economic blow.
But we are a net importer of fuel - ok the North Sea takes a punch but the rest of the economy is made up.
all we have are financial services and borrowing, do they use much oil
Whisky will be cheaper to make and transport...
not make a big difference to really good stuff though
PS, who is going to buy the Rangers
3 Bears and King - this Yank is a stalking horse rustled up by the geezers running the show. Ashley is out - just wants to protect his onerous merch contract.
The falling oil price will: Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Eh? Duty increases as sales volume increases - it's per litre, not a percentage of price.
Therefore cheap oil = higher consumption of petrol/diesel = more revenue = positive effect on borrowing. This ignores the impact on Treasury income from oil industry profits, of course. And Joe Public still has more moolah in his pocket for buying a new TV, etc.
Also: Glanfarclas is magical - my lovely wife bought me a bottle for my 40th, aged since the year of my birth
A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.
A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.
Definitely a contender for the Tin foil hat posting of the year so far.
Four hospitals in England have now declared "major incidents" because of demand at A&E
Once upon a time, a 'Major Incident' was a plane crash or Godzilla stalking an oil refinery. Now it's merely a short staffed casualty unit overloaded with drunks.
A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.
Definitely a contender for the Tin foil hat posting of the year so far.
Nah, there's been a lot of bollocks spouted by the climate change deniers that tops that.
Actually it's nothing to do with nationalism: it was always the A74 etc - Carlisle to Edinburgh is A7 and has been since the start of the road numbering system in the ?1930s, so all the other roads related to it are 7**. Also, as the motorway for a long time was not (and is not, IIRC) continuous north of Carlisle there is no point in giving it a continuous number. But the main point is the previous one.
Alas not true. If you drive along the southern end of the A74(M) where the signs on the motorway and nearby roads say A74(M) it is on a metal plate on many of those signs, underneath it reads M6. such as this one at Junction 15 of the A74(M) at Beattock where the plate fell off.
Also, From a tendering advertisement for building the motorway
"tendering advertisement for the section from Water of Milk to Ecclefechan published on 23 April 1992. A few days later, in the Edinburgh Gazette of 1 May, 1992, an Explanatory Note was appended to a routine notice announcing the making of the Scheme for a section of the route north and south of Beattock. This read:
EXPLANATORY NOTE The Scheme and associated Appropriation and Side Roads Orders published in draft on 31st August 1990 included reference to the Glasgow-Carlisle Special Road (M74). The Secretary of State has decided to change the number of the upgraded sections of the Glasgow-Carlisle Trunk Road (A74) lying to the south of where the existing M74 ends at Nether Abington. Each section, on completion of upgrading, will be renumbered A74(M). Once all the sections of the A74 between Carlisle and Nether Abington have been upgraded, the entire length of the M74 and the A74(M) from Glasgow to Carlisle will be renumbered, and form part of, the M6. The Scheme and associated Orders have been amended to reflect these changes, where necessary.
However by the time the scheme was finished numbering had been devolved from the Department for Transport to the Scottish Government and they refused to do it.
Actually it's nothing to do with nationalism: it was always the A74 etc - Carlisle to Edinburgh is A7 and has been since the start of the road numbering system in the ?1930s, so all the other roads related to it are 7**. Also, as the motorway for a long time was not (and is not, IIRC) continuous north of Carlisle there is no point in giving it a continuous number. But the main point is the previous one.
Alas not true. If you drive along the southern end of the A74(M) where the signs on the motorway and nearby roads say A74(M) it is on a metal plate on many of those signs, underneath it reads M6. such as this one at Junction 15 of the A74(M) at Beattock where the plate fell off.
Also, From a tendering advertisement for building the motorway
"tendering advertisement for the section from Water of Milk to Ecclefechan published on 23 April 1992. A few days later, in the Edinburgh Gazette of 1 May, 1992, an Explanatory Note was appended to a routine notice announcing the making of the Scheme for a section of the route north and south of Beattock. This read:
EXPLANATORY NOTE The Scheme and associated Appropriation and Side Roads Orders published in draft on 31st August 1990 included reference to the Glasgow-Carlisle Special Road (M74). The Secretary of State has decided to change the number of the upgraded sections of the Glasgow-Carlisle Trunk Road (A74) lying to the south of where the existing M74 ends at Nether Abington. Each section, on completion of upgrading, will be renumbered A74(M). Once all the sections of the A74 between Carlisle and Nether Abington have been upgraded, the entire length of the M74 and the A74(M) from Glasgow to Carlisle will be renumbered, and form part of, the M6. The Scheme and associated Orders have been amended to reflect these changes, where necessary.
However by the time the scheme was finished numbering had been devolved from the Department for Transport to the Scottish Government and they refused to do it.
Well, that is news to me: but all it seems to show is that the Scots had the sense not to confuse everyone by changing the road numbers. The M74 had been known by that name for a long time, as was implicit in my comment, with a long and independent existence, and there was no sense in changing its name to the M6 just cos it got plugged up to the M6.
The falling oil price will: Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Eh? Duty increases as sales volume increases - it's per litre, not a percentage of price.
Therefore cheap oil = higher consumption of petrol/diesel = more revenue = positive effect on borrowing. This ignores the impact on Treasury income from oil industry profits, of course. And Joe Public still has more moolah in his pocket for buying a new TV, etc.
Also: Glanfarclas is magical - my lovely wife bought me a bottle for my 40th, aged since the year of my birth
Duty is indeed a fixed price - currently just under 58p a litre. But there is then VAT on top of that and the VAT take will be dropping as the petrol price drops. More importantly the Government take on every barrel of oil will be dropping as this is about 70% of the price of every barrel of crude.
Marginally improve our balance of payments as we are net importers
Reduce inflation, possibly to deflationary levels (not necessarily a bad thing if it is from an external source).
Massively reduce overall investment in the north sea in a way that will probably reduce investment overall.
Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Bring down the FTSE (pretty irrelevant to the UK economy but might also reduce the tax take a bit).
Make it easier to get a hotel room in Aberdeen.
I think only the last one is unalloyed good news (unless you are in the hotel business of course).
I'd say the impact on the BOP is good short term really bad long term as NS oil becomes less competitive so we produce less and have to import more.
Actually it's nothing to do with nationalism: it was always the A74 etc - Carlisle to Edinburgh is A7 and has been since the start of the road numbering system in the ?1930s, so all the other roads related to it are 7**. Also, as the motorway for a long time was not (and is not, IIRC) continuous north of Carlisle there is no point in giving it a continuous number. But the main point is the previous one.
Alas not true. If you drive along the southern end of the A74(M) where the signs on the motorway and nearby roads say A74(M) it is on a metal plate on many of those signs, underneath it reads M6. such as this one at Junction 15 of the A74(M) at Beattock where the plate fell off.
Also, From a tendering advertisement for building the motorway
"tendering advertisement for the section from Water of Milk to Ecclefechan published on 23 April 1992. A few days later, in the Edinburgh Gazette of 1 May, 1992, an Explanatory Note was appended to a routine notice announcing the making of the Scheme for a section of the route north and south of Beattock. This read:
EXPLANATORY NOTE The Scheme and associated Appropriation and Side Roads Orders published in draft on 31st August 1990 included reference to the Glasgow-Carlisle Special Road (M74). The Secretary of State has decided to change the number of the upgraded sections of the Glasgow-Carlisle Trunk Road (A74) lying to the south of where the existing M74 ends at Nether Abington. Each section, on completion of upgrading, will be renumbered A74(M). Once all the sections of the A74 between Carlisle and Nether Abington have been upgraded, the entire length of the M74 and the A74(M) from Glasgow to Carlisle will be renumbered, and form part of, the M6. The Scheme and associated Orders have been amended to reflect these changes, where necessary.
However by the time the scheme was finished numbering had been devolved from the Department for Transport to the Scottish Government and they refused to do it.
Well, that is news to me: but all it seems to show is that the Scots had the sense not to confuse everyone by changing the road numbers. The M74 had been known by that name for a long time, as was implicit in my comment, with a long and independent existence, and there was no sense in changing its name to the M6 just cos it got plugged up to the M6.
PS If anything, it was the Tories who wanted to change the name for petty nationalist reasons and ended up wasting money on it.
A Ukip downwards correction of some magnitude would not surprise me.Clearly,Farage will act on Murdoch's instructions which Nigel can then relay through to Cameron to tell him what the policy is so that Dave can change it.This approach does not seem to be working and Murdoch may pull the plug on the whole Ukip operation.Farage pulls out around March.Any voters affected will simply rejoin the ranks on the non-voters.Ukip's vote goes down but it stays at home,angry and disgusted and does not go anywhere,remaining unfocused angst at the system.
Definitely a contender for the Tin foil hat posting of the year so far.
Nah, there's been a lot of bollocks spouted by the climate change deniers that tops that.
Ah, another loon who knows nothing about what he is commenting on. I should have known that from the rubbish you were spouting about oil revenue.
The falling oil price will: Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Eh? Duty increases as sales volume increases - it's per litre, not a percentage of price.
Therefore cheap oil = higher consumption of petrol/diesel = more revenue = positive effect on borrowing. This ignores the impact on Treasury income from oil industry profits, of course. And Joe Public still has more moolah in his pocket for buying a new TV, etc.
Also: Glanfarclas is magical - my lovely wife bought me a bottle for my 40th, aged since the year of my birth
Duty is indeed a fixed price - currently just under 58p a litre. But there is then VAT on top of that and the VAT take will be dropping as the petrol price drops. More importantly the Government take on every barrel of oil will be dropping as this is about 70% of the price of every barrel of crude.
Well, nuts. Forgot that VAT was on top.
Still not convinced that cheaper energy and transport costs are unremittingly bad for the UK, despite the pain being inflicted on our oil industry. There are several substantial and important mitigants.
Comments
It's difficult to ascertain what the Germans really think about this Greek thing. Merkel seems to want to say 'take austerity or leave the euro'. Her coalition partners, however, are bricking themselves.
It's a big recipe for uncertainty.
Greek yields are going higher and the markets are questioning the wisdom of Spain yields thru the UK.
Under labour, Scotland to score 1,000 more points....
We need RCS to remind us why there's nothing to see here...
With extra devolution Scotland does not have to (in Labours terms) fear or hate the Tories. They will have more control over taxation and spending. All Scotland can be promised is more money pro rata whatever Labour spend on the NHS UK-wide. And that has to be paid for.
Labour MPs are just as vulnerable as Tory MPs in England over additional spending in Scotland at the expense of England.
Your Telegraph article does not say '1000 more than the SNP promise' however.
Lib Dems: 26%
Con: 10%
Lab: 23%
SNP: 39%
Another crushing an all encompassing victory for the SNP. Guaranteed fact.
Certainly my summer holiday is looking better value...
For instance Sturgeon has been repeatedly criticised for not introducing a 50p top tax rate.
ON blaance I think it is some kind of dada-ist art project.
That is not how they won: that is how BT very nearly lost.
You should be embarrassed that Labour can come up with 9 alternative realities, all of which are preferable to the Tories' one idea
Thanks for tipping East Dunbartonshire. I got on at good value in the summer, and promise to spend the winnings improving Scottish exports in the form of Islay malt!
Should we not be realistic (optimistic?) and expect it to go back to about $80/barrel?
Newsnight all but unwatchable these days. And I quite liked Evan Davis on the Today programme.
If only Newsnight had hired James Naughtie. Then they could have renamed it Windbag Hour.
My first tupence worth of the year -- I am perplexed by Ed M's latest soundbite: " Hope, not falsehood". Who actually goes around in 2015 using the word 'falsehood'?
By comparison the pound Sterling is still trading slightly above where it was 18 months ago vs the dollar.
EDIT: Although I'd forgotten that NHS spending is a devolved issue, so actually on second thoughts I don't really understand the tweet at all.
Hmm... £1.2 bn a year means the Scottish share is £96m (8%). Is that really enough to equip, clothe, manage and provide the medication for 1,000 nurses? I think not.
I’ve focused my betting on William Hill’s SLAB seats market. I’ve built a good position in the 0-20 seats market, I’ll make a profit if SLAB win 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and will break even at 16-20 seats. I built most of my 0-5 position at 125/1 (now down to 8/1) and it would pay out £17,000. Realistically though 11-15 seats at 5/1, is probably the best value bet.
My sense is that the SNP surge still has some way to go and would anticipate SNP levelling out at around 50%. I think SLAB will struggle to hold onto the 20% support level, let alone their current 25%. I don’t think there is anything SLAB can do to turn things around in Scotland by GE2015, so they should just focus on a proper game plan for Holyrood 2016.
However in the Short term (ie between now and May) it will be quite the reverse, with a feelgood factor developing. Certainly seeing petrol down to 108.9 at my local garage cheered up a bleak day.
This is distastrous for Ed, Ed and co. Dave and Gideon can consider themselves very lucky - however their prize may be having to sort out the mess in a government with a de jure small majority that is actually a de facto minority as a couple of dozen backbenchers will be virtually in UKIP.
One thing I would like to see is the end of the petit nationalism that is resulting in the north end of the M6 being classed as A74(M) and M74
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/01/04/jim-webb-the-alternative/
Change we can all believe in.
Plus, presumably our balance of payments position will get worse.
Online Populus poll
Lab 36 (+1)
Con 34 (-1)
LD 9 (=)
UKIP 12 (=)
Oth 10 (+1)
Also
Online Populus poll
England & Wales only
Lab 37% : Con 36% : UKIP 13% : LD 9% : Grn 4% : Oth 1% (Lab lead over Con 0.38%)
(UKPR comment)
If you can't get wages to rise to meet costs, perhaps costs can fall to meet wages...
All sorts of goods and services are about to get cheaper.
Surely on balance to the WHOLE economy of the Uk, cheap oil is good news ?
This means that by the end of the year inflation will start to stir and interest rates will start going up. Which will puncture the asset (house price bubble) in the UK.
AIUI another reason oil is falling is tailing off of rapid growth in China (which is a reflection of the economic situation there)
Other than in the short term, this will not be good news for whoever is in power.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/dugdale-id-be-prepared-to-work-with-the-snp-after-general-election.1420455082 There's a thrifty party, with Mr Swinney i/c the finances - slight problem it's not a Unionist party.
I was tempted to check the date but as it is too obviously 5 January rather than 1 April I can only switch off and give the thing a boot, to see if SLAB start making more sense tomorrow.
PS, who is going to buy the Rangers
That said I don't think it will. The existence of a finite and irreplaceable resource will always encourage development and exploration and as it becomes scarcer it becomes more valuable.
Cheaper groceries. Cheaper washing machines. Cheaper computer services. Cheaper building materials. Cheaper taxis. Cheaper anything and everything that gets delivered.
Don;t ambulances use fuel? Police cars? it all mounts up.
Basically a huge wodge of cash that was flowing out of democracies and into pockets in some of the less savoury parts of the world is no longer doing so.
Marginally improve our balance of payments as we are net importers
Reduce inflation, possibly to deflationary levels (not necessarily a bad thing if it is from an external source).
Massively reduce overall investment in the north sea in a way that will probably reduce investment overall.
Have a negative effect on public borrowing figures. Even if we all spend the savings on other VATed goods we will probably not be paying a lot of duty as well (unless we all take up Malcolm's excellent recommendation of Glenfarclas).
Bring down the FTSE (pretty irrelevant to the UK economy but might also reduce the tax take a bit).
Make it easier to get a hotel room in Aberdeen.
I think only the last one is unalloyed good news (unless you are in the hotel business of course).
(although there is currently a Harlequin Duck at the mouth of the Don and it is a hell of a drive for a day trip....)
BREAKING NEWS: BBC
Four hospitals in England have now declared "major incidents" because of demand at A&E
Therefore cheap oil = higher consumption of petrol/diesel = more revenue = positive effect on borrowing. This ignores the impact on Treasury income from oil industry profits, of course. And Joe Public still has more moolah in his pocket for buying a new TV, etc.
Also: Glanfarclas is magical - my lovely wife bought me a bottle for my 40th, aged since the year of my birth
A boost for Cameron and a disaster for ED?
Your consistency is remarkable.
http://www.cbrd.co.uk/roadsfaq/img/t_m6scotland.jpg
http://www.cbrd.co.uk/roadsfaq/
Also, From a tendering advertisement for building the motorway
"tendering advertisement for the section from Water of Milk to Ecclefechan published on 23 April 1992. A few days later, in the Edinburgh Gazette of 1 May, 1992, an Explanatory Note was appended to a routine notice announcing the making of the Scheme for a section of the route north and south of Beattock. This read:
EXPLANATORY NOTE
The Scheme and associated Appropriation and Side Roads Orders published in draft on 31st August 1990 included reference to the Glasgow-Carlisle Special Road (M74). The Secretary of State has decided to change the number of the upgraded sections of the Glasgow-Carlisle Trunk Road (A74) lying to the south of where the existing M74 ends at Nether Abington. Each section, on completion of upgrading, will be renumbered A74(M). Once all the sections of the A74 between Carlisle and Nether Abington have been upgraded, the entire length of the M74 and the A74(M) from Glasgow to Carlisle will be renumbered, and form part of, the M6. The Scheme and associated Orders have been amended to reflect these changes, where necessary.
However by the time the scheme was finished numbering had been devolved from the Department for Transport to the Scottish Government and they refused to do it.
http://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/wiki/index.php?title=M74_and_A74(M)_History
John Swinney must be sacked."
https://twitter.com/AgentP22
Dodgy Osborne at work again. The Straight, true tory party, and I don't think.
On the Caledonian sleeper train it is available in miniatures, each with the super retro labelling.
https://www.youtube.com/user/joeyjonessky/videos
Still not convinced that cheaper energy and transport costs are unremittingly bad for the UK, despite the pain being inflicted on our oil industry. There are several substantial and important mitigants.
I think you'll find matters in the eurozone are not helping.
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/2015/01/05/europe-losing-soul/#.VKrTaCGkRJ8.twitter
.............as well as everything else. An article to ponder on.