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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Main party switchers to UKIP in the key battlegrounds repre
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Main party switchers to UKIP in the key battlegrounds represent just on 11% of the overall vote
These figures are quite a bit lower than the normal shares for the purples that we see. This is because they are confined to 2010 main party voters only. Balance of support came from OTH or “did not vote”.
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UKIP might have fizzled out if there hadn't been any defections ?
Tsk .....
This Tory shall sleep easier tonight.......
Is it really negative campaigning??
I'd call it policy scrutiny. And I reckon people would quite like a bit of that.
The underlying assumption is that Green-leaning voters will have no preference between an austerity-inclined Lab and an austerity-inclined Con. This is hugely mistaken.
OGH posted earlier about the impact of tactical voting at GE2015. This will be especially true of the Greens, who will pile up support in safe Conservative seats ("why not vote Green?"). But in Con/Lab marginals, Green votes will go straight to Labour, aided by all the bar charts Labour can produce.
Scotland is a different kettle of fish because most of the battlegrounds are Lab/SNP. But if Osbo's main achievement is to ensure GE2015 results in a Lab/SNP coalition rather than a Lab majority, he won't have done very well.
It will end very badly for them though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30682983
Speaking to @ShelaghFogarty Sir Ming Campbell predicts that the upcoming election "is going to be a dirty campaign."
Well we know it will by TSE shouting "Vote Tory!" on each post, and you can't get dirtier than that.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 1m1 minute ago
Ed Balls on Russell Brand: "a pound shop Ben Elton".
Only something big and bold will have any effect e.g. Labour will tax your house or the Tories will make you pay to go to hospital will get through. The 1992 tax bombshell campaign was quite effective on that score. I haven't seen the equivalent yet - from either side.
And on all the current polls, Labour will end up in government.
On Norwich related matters, your manager has quit.
The choice at the next election is clear.
Continue on the road to a stronger economy with a competent Conservative team that have a long-term plan.
Or choose the chaos of Labour's £20.7 billion unfunded spending promises, higher taxes and more borrowing which would take us back to square one.
I agree - but remain to be convinced everyone else does. He's playing the left brain/common sense/logic card. But Labour is playing the NHS religion /left brain/Joseph Goebbels playbook card.
As the irreplaceable George Carlin once said: “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” Labour know this.
It pales into insignificance though when compared with my 250/1 bet on UKIP in Blackpool North & Cleveleys with Stan James. They allowed me even fewer pennies, but still...
http://order-order.com/2015/01/05/social-media-sentiment-is-a-myth-just-ask-alex-salmond/
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/24/the-limits-of-private-polling/
The Tories have nothing to boast about on the economy. And it shows.
As Guido says "naive at best.."
Even though I hadn't arbed.
Absolute bloody Charlatans.
Which Labour SPAD thought it was a good idea to label the Tory dossier, "dodgy"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/05/labour-tory-dodgy-dossier-spending-commitments
I think even Labour would struggle to find an example where they have been shown to be so comprehensively and catastrophically wrong in such a brief period. Maybe over longer time scales but less than 4 months?
Despite having economic forecasting abilities that make Gordon Brown look good the SNP are riding high in the polls. It is hard to imagine the panic and misery that we would currently be going through if the people of Scotland were not so sensible. Certainly the first budget for an independent Scotland would have involved cuts that would make Osborne's eyes water and genuine hardship. These people should be ashamed of themselves.
0-5 seats - 125/1 down to 8/1
6-10 seats - 66/1 down to 5/1
11-15 seats - 20/1 down to 5/1
It's not like Lenin was ashamed of himself for having created the Soviet Union. Likewise, Labour doesn't apologise for keeping people poor so they'll keep voting Labour.
It was never about benefiting the proles. It's all about what's best for the party.
The SNP is surely riding high because it represents the best chance of screwing the best deal for Scotland out of the English.
None of the others will ever put Scottish voters first.
Oh, mustn't forget the customary "you'll rue the day"
Or the full results of their postal primary in Rochester, for that matter.
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/552067774995234816
PS and that is on top of sticking to the Tory spending budget.
Without the French at the Battle of Yorktown, Americans would be singing God Save The Queen before baseball games.
How easy is it to emigrate to Ireland and become a citizen?
It's "Whatever you say plus one" from children's arguments (they promised something similar on spending more than whatever the evil Tories would spend).
It also puts them in the absurd position of having another party dictate their own policy.
It's a weird constituency.
Presumably that's "we" in the traditional Labour sense of "you", or more specifically, "I".
Why don't they change their logo to a big red hand held out for other people's money? The moral incompetence would still be there but the honesty, from Tony Blair's party, would be refreshing.
Labour = fiscal incontinence
Conservatives = fiscal incontinence and cash back
My god.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30681394
the arse of prosperity indeed.
* that's a bagpipe part BTW. don't mention it
Please let that be the case. I'm not a particular fan of SLAB, I just dont want to witness politics being reduced to this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0j5GOlC9VA