Categories
Things can only get better (Starmer hopes) – politicalbetting.com
Things can only get better (Starmer hopes) – politicalbetting.com
New @IpsosUK Keir Starmer net satisfaction (-34) worst of any PM after 5 months in Ipsos history. Keir StarmerSatisfied 27%Dissatisfied 61%Net = -34https://t.co/IB69pGAOto pic.twitter.com/Pj9q8BPQfy
0
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/17/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-vacancies-employment-wages/
This appears to be an exception - and more as importantly, they ran a trial to assess its effectiveness.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/dec/17/marthas-rule-having-transformative-effect-nhs-england-data-shows
Downing Street has refused to rule out returning Britain to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice for the first time since Brexit as the price of Sir Keir Starmer’s reset with the bloc.
At a meeting this week ministers from the European Union are expected to demand that the government agrees to follow new and existing European law on food and agricultural standards as part of an improved trade deal.
Britain would also be obliged to follow rulings from the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in specific areas as part of a new trade and co-operation agreement.
Both issues were a red line for the former Conservative government when the original trade and co-operation agreement was signed. It resulted in the imposition of new checks and restrictions on UK exports to the EU that are believed to have cost the economy £3 billion a year.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/uk-could-return-to-eu-laws-as-keir-starmer-seeks-trade-deal-s7dfl5p92
I'm not going to predict a draw though...
Judge rules Trump’s conviction withstands Supreme Court immunity decision
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5043247-trump-hush-money-conviction-uphold/
How much down to a volatile electorate, who oppose and criticise everything?
And how much down to starting with no political capital (and no financial capital either)?
It's full of the requisite wisdom we have come to expect
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/national-minimum-wage-increase-is-proof-labour-improves-living-standards/ar-AA1vZMfJ?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=4b1c978a52b949d2bb5419cf3a650dd6&ei=10
Except that next time around there will be another opponent in the mix, without the disadvantage of ever being in government.
Time for some consideration of the markets for next India captain.
Bumrah - is the vice-captain, and the team looked a completely different unit with him in charge. His win in among a series of catastrophic losses and skin-of-the-teeth draws under Rohit suggest he has what it takes. Drawbacks - is a bowler and although his fitness is remarkable he won't play every match.
Rishabh Pant - popular, famous, clearly very tough, in with the board. Drawback - keeps wicket and as Dhoni showed, keeping wicket, captaining and being vital with the bat is a lot to deal with.
Shubman Gill - young, ardent, in a career on the up. Drawback - still rather young and could do with a few more runs.
KL Rahul - vastly experienced, respected, could manage a transitory period. Drawback - not sure of his place in the team.
Bumrah would probably be the smart choice, with Pant as his vice captain and Gill being carefully groomed for the long term succession - a bit like Australia with Cummins, Smith and Head. But the BCCI is, like the Civil Service, prone to doing what it thinks is right rather than what would be right, so I would say Pant is probably the favourite.
It is inconceivable that the federal government has no answers nor has taken any action to get to the bottom of the unidentified drones. The fecklessness of this administration was on display last year when a Chinese surveillance balloon was allowed to fly over the entire continental United States before being shot down. Such should be viewed as a threat to our nation and citizens and action is long overdue. We have recourses and assets in our arsenal to get answers, but I suppose Ukraine is more important to the White House. January 20th can’t come soon enough...
https://x.com/SenMastriano/status/1868794734530953444
As the son of immigrants, I could never have imagined the incredible political journey I have been on. I feel blessed.
Thank you to all of those who have supported me over the years.
https://x.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1868930492059517379
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgkx36dpzmxo
Since we’re doing Tory partisanship again, why don’t I balance things out a bit.
Is this just not the post-Covid rehiring tailing off?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/december2024
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/mystery-deadly-virus-could-be-disease-x-as-death-toll-soars-across-world/ar-AA1vYhUv?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d47784f27f640af850275430aee3124&ei=22
That's a hard circle tosquare
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=388403&utm_source=taboola
Broadcaster and YouTuber Kim Ou-joon, known to have been on the list of potential detainees during the short-lived martial law on Dec. 3 and 4, said Friday that he received a tip about an order to assassinate Han Dong-hoon, leader of the ruling People Power Party.
He said that the first piece of information he received was about an "assassination squad being mobilized," which he subsequently reported to Rep. Kim Byung-joo of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK).
Speaking as a witness at the National Assembly's Science, ICT, Broadcasting, and Communications Committee hearing, Kim said that Rep. Kim was the first to publicly mention the assassination squad during an MBC radio appearance.
Kim claimed he was the source of that tip. He recalled that when he told Rep. Kim, the lawmaker was initially skeptical but later confirmed its validity after a few hours.
"The information I am about to share has not been fully verified," Kim said, before detailing allegations regarding plans reportedly tied to martial law. "There was a plan within the martial law forces to assassinate Han Dong-hoon while he was being detained and transported."
Additionally, he shared information about other alleged plans: one involved staging an attack on the transport units holding figures like Cho Kuk, former leader of the minor opposition Rebuilding Korea Party, Yang Jung-chul, former chief of the Institute for Democracy, and Kim Ou-joon himself, to make it appear as though they were being rescued.
According to Kim, the scheme also involved burying North Korean military uniforms at specific locations, which would later be "discovered" and used to frame North Korea as the perpetrator...
What's worrying is that this isn't completely incredible (though I'm sceptical).
I’d also say the media revolution allows those who are opposed to set the agenda via social media and other outlets as those who are unhappy or opposed always shout louder than those in support.
Societal, demographic and environmental changes and challenges confront all Governments and no one has any answers and those who have proposed “solutions” often fail to recognize the impracticality and upheaval such solutions would produce.
It will be fascinating to see if the Trump second administration, especially if it enacts radical economic and social policies as it seeks to redefine the role of Government and its relationship with the citizen, is successful as if it is we will see such policies rapidly followed by most of the rest of the west.
Seasoned pandemic watchers are back to avian flu being the #1 threat.
yes, but I dont think it would have been by £40 billion.
It might just be that the President was just too incompetent to carry it out - as with the coup itself.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=388621
..He added that there were further plans to use armed North Korean drones, plant North Korean military uniforms as fake evidence and trigger U.S. military strikes by targeting American soldiers.
However, a DPK internal document obtained by the Hankook Ilbo on Tuesday concluded that Kim's claims lack credibility. It stated that the narrative appears constructed by blending limited past knowledge with exaggerated and fictional details, exploiting the confidentiality of institutional information.
The document specifically questioned the feasibility of using weaponized drones, explaining that most drones globally, including those deployed by North Korea, are designed for kamikaze attacks rather than carrying weapons. North Korean drones known to be capable of weapon attachments have not been proven operational and would be impractical for covert missions due to their large size.
Further doubts were raised about claims of disguising the operation as a North Korean scheme by planting military uniforms, with the document pointing out that North Korean agents typically avoid such tactics, instead using civilian or allied military clothing for infiltration.
While the document largely dismissed Kim's claims, it refrained from making conclusions about some parts of the narrative, citing a lack of detailed information.
Kim acknowledged that his statements were based on unverified intelligence, sparking mixed reactions within the DPK.
Some figures, such as former four-star Gen. Kim Byeong-joo, supported the possibility of the claims, saying they were worth serious consideration. Others, including lawmaker Bu Seung-chan, expressed doubts, questioning whether such intricate plans could realistically have been developed and executed...
For some, it is that the government didn't make a smooth start. Only a nitwit would say it did. But that it much more fixable. Partly by Starmer, Reeves etc growing into the role, but also by employing better scriptwriters behind the scenes.
But in many ways, the situation is what it always was. The country is in a state, the only plausible way out is a nervous shuffle, it will take time to improve, the public are in no mood to accept purple prose about the sunlit uplands, even if Starmer did purple prose.
The big picture, meanwhile, is that nothing important has changed. Starmer has few, if any, fans. But, given the alternatives, he'll have to do. And if he can say in 2028/9 "I did", his party will be fine.
So we can either have good employment growth or no/low immigration but not both. It is as simple as that.
It would not have favoured the public sector at the cost of business
Terrible jobs prospects going into 2025 and high wage rises delaying cuts in interest rates
I would also agree with @stodge at 8.17am who has a sensible analysis of why the government is so unpopular
He and his mates will be able to nick loads of cash, and lots of little people will be screwed but they don't matter.
Plus the weakening of the state means they will never face charges for what they do.
And I'm sure many world leaders will consider that a very attractive model to follow, although really Putin beat him to the creation of it.
There is a fired Economics Professor who demonstrated such things last week when looking at Red Wall areas and immigration...
Watch this space
The reality is that all Government cabinets are going to be 2nd or 3rd rate because few good people go into politics nowadays - it ain't worth the stress..
Rayner waves a magic wand but reality is very different
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/dec/17/17400-affordable-homes-england-wales-not-being-built-lack-of-housing-association-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
And right-wingers banned centralised purchasing in favour of local contracting, remember, becayse it was supposedly more efficient.
Anti incumbent in advance as it were
The riding was unexpectedly lost by the Conservatives in the 2021 election but Tamara Jensen, the unsuccessful Conservative candidate, has had their revenge on the Liberals turning a 3-point loss into a 49-point lead on a 26% swing.
That’s about double the swing in the current federal polling which shows the Conservatives set to win a landslide at the next election on a swing of 12-13% from the September 2021 election.
I think we all knew that general wasn't a Putin victim. No windows were involved.
(I note that there has been a significant increase in vacancies in real estate, looking at the ONS report referenced by the Telegraph - so Labour's reforms/mood music do appear to be having an effect)
The public must be particularly febrile these days.
In this case, Alanbrooke is quite right about same old, same old.
He just thinks the Tories would have left their projects unfunded.
Being Canadian by common acclamation, do we have a way of betting on Canadian politics sensibly?
The Conservatives will win big as Starmer did but how effective they will be and whether they actually have any kind of answers to Canada’s problems is far from clear.
*This does require that we regulate intelligently - unfortunately the last government mainly just transposed EU directives into UK law anyway, rather than considering them on their merits.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems continue to "pootle along"/"languish" in the low double digits as if the election never happened. The least volatile support base of all.
How will Scotland survive ?
Boris also may have had a net negative rating when he became PM but he had a 38% favourable rating, clearly enough to win a majority under FPTP. Starmer's 27% favourable rating now though is far below the level needed to win a majority
Being Canadian by common acclamation, do we have a way of betting on Canadian politics sensibly, including named ministers?
Election next year, and at present best odds are Liberal 11/1, Conservative 1/9 afaics (Oddschecker).
Not good enough for a dabble, but it is looking volatile with Mr Trump jumping up and down.
I think many on PB feel homeless politically. I am one, after a lifetime of moderate Tory support. I think this is sub optimal.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/16/the-conservatives-are-the-1-10-favourites-to-win-the-next-general-election/
Very few were given the choices they wanted in 2016. What most wanted was this. Best: an EU which had been shaped differently by the UK being given referendums earlier. Second best: A reformed EU.
The first was unsayable by mainstream politicos, as they had all been complicit in this epic fail. The second, we concluded, was not going to happen.