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It’s Kemi Badenough for the Tories as they sink to third – politicalbetting.com

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  • The problem is no-one on the right is making any plausible proposals of how to get the underclass of economically active people into work.

    Surestart = cancelled
    Community and youth clubs = cut
    Probation service = cut
    Prison service = cut

    If we had two or three decades of investment in these areas you would gradually reduce the size of the underclass, a bit. You can't do it by rehashing schemes like linking benefits to job searching which have been repeatedly championed by every government I can remember. If that worked we wouldn't still be talking about it.
    The best way to reduce it is to eliminate the poverty trap by making work pay.

    If someone works 16 hours a week and not an hour more then they can get tens of thousands in benefits. If they work any more, then combining Income Tax, NIC, UC Taper and more they can be on 70-80% plus real marginal tax rate.

    Its not finding jobs that is the issue, we have full employment. The bigger issue is people who don't work because they are being entirely rational in the tax system that exists!
  • HYUFD said:

    I don't necessarily disagree but a number of developed nations have such a system with unemployment benefits only given to those with sufficient insurance contributions, including the US, Canada, Poland and Italy
    US prison rate is five times ours. Better get on with building those prisons and increasing taxes to pay for more police and prison officers.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    There is 4 plus years to go and I just cannot see a change in the leaders for sometime, if at all

    The locals so far have been good for the conservatives and lib dems, but the real test is coming in May 2026 with the Welsh and Scottish elections for the Senedd and Holyrood
    “The locals so far”

    Being in government for a full two decades can hollow you out of local government, but you keep winning general elections if your preferred to manage economy and your prospective PM preferred - the two main questions on GE ballot paper not on local election ballot papers.

    We have seen all other election nights, including National elections for EU in 1999 when Hague thrashed Blair’s new Labour government, poor pointers to what happens at GE. And rightly so, we should see all GE as completely different question asked of voters.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005

    On topic.
    “Under FPTP with three parties within in 3% of each other could see utter carnage in the number of seats won.”

    No. That is the complete opposite of the lesson we should be drawing.

    under FPTP if voters from other parties chose you when their 1st preference can’t win, you go up just 0.6% from last election yet go from 11 to 72 seats, up just 1.6% and add 211 seats - alternatively get 14.3% of votes for just 5 seats because you are second preference of no one.

    Mike Smithson has been saying this to us for years and years: second and third preferences do matter loads in FPTP.

    look at Stodge’s NZ roundup in this thread, that he boiled down not into parties but blocks. We should look at UK polling not as parties, but as blocs. The psephological stats from last UK GE in para 2 is the result of blocs with 1st 2nd 3rd preferences in play.

    The last election result defines for us the current blocs in UK politics.

    And we have the political term for policies and governing which brings the 2nd and 3rd prefs of your voting block into play for you, fishes for and puts those votes in your net as one metaphor - spectral-syncretic politics. Or this is gardening/cultivating your bloc to use another metaphor.

    And a note for HY: Conservatives and Reform are 100% not in the same voting block. Both Conservative Party and Reform are in their own separate blocks. They are in cannibal deathmatch with each other. The first and second preferences of last election result is 100% proof of this.
    Block 1 Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
    Block 2 Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
    Block 3 Reform 14.3% - 5 seats.

    Labour and Libdems can 100% poll higher than that for less seats, if helping each other wasn’t happening. %s produce these seats from blocs working together, or blocs fighting each other in cannibalism deathmatch.

    Despite spectral-syncretics from the Labour government, still the most powerful glue for Bloc 1 voters sticking together for maximum impact, would be bloc 2 and 3 cosying up.

    Sensible, but I'd add a bloc for the Greens and Independents as they're more like Reform in relation to the Tories in terms of having strong - often crank - views they're unwilling to brook any compromise on or challenges to and want whatever the cost or impracticalities. People like Owen Jones hate Labour now has much as the Tories.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Pro_Rata said:

    Baxter (unless I've missed someone, surprised it isn't already posted)

    Lab 289
    Con 153
    LD 71
    Ref 86
    Oth 14
    Green 4
    Nats 14 + 4

    It shouldn’t be posted. It’s about as relevant to where we are and what happens at next GE as Baxtering pineapple on pizza.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    Well this can’t be right. I’ve been endlessly assured that all the agencies are baffled by the drone invasion…

    https://x.com/528vibes/status/1867292684668608725
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    HYUFD said:

    I don't necessarily disagree
    but a number of developed
    nations have such a system
    with unemployment benefits
    only given to those with
    sufficient insurance
    contributions, including the
    US, Canada, Poland and Italy, Japan and Singapore
    When I was signing on in the early Eighties, I couldn't get Unemployment benefit as I had no history of paying NI, but I was entitled to Supplementary benefit of about £22 per week, probably about £60 in current money.

    Do these other countries have a Supplementary benefit equivalent, for those with no NI record?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited December 2024
    MJW said:

    Sensible, but I'd add a bloc for the Greens and Independents as they're more like Reform in relation to the Tories in terms of having strong - often crank - views they're unwilling to brook any compromise on or challenges to and want whatever the cost or impracticalities. People like Owen Jones hate Labour now has much as the Tories.
    I think if Greens everywhere were not in bloc one, but stuck together as a bloody minded separate bloc like the remaining Con and Ref are separate blocs, greens would get 11-16% and bloc 1 very much suffer in seats. Labour and Libdem seat totals are so because more than then half potential Green vote are not bloody minded as the 6% are, so votes in Bloc 1. Jones and our own BJO very much in the bloody minded 6%, but don’t define the potential green vote.

    Where greens can do well, local and national, is in Tory seats where they are seen by bloc 1 friends as hurting the Tories.

    They are very much entwined into bloc 1.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited December 2024
    HYUFD said:

    I don't necessarily disagree
    but a number of developed
    nations have such a system
    with unemployment benefits
    only given to those with
    sufficient insurance
    contributions, including the
    US, Canada, Poland and Italy, Japan and Singapore
    Flyting with giant haikus ... whatever next.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Well this can’t be right. I’ve been endlessly assured that all the agencies are baffled by the drone invasion…

    https://x.com/528vibes/status/1867292684668608725

    Mass hysteria? Who would be so gullible to be PB's Chicken Licken?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Scott_xP said:

    Front page of The Star tomorrow features a headline TSE would be proud of

    Sadly I can't post it here

    https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/
  • eekeek Posts: 29,539

    The best way to reduce it is to eliminate the poverty trap by making work pay.

    If someone works 16 hours a week and not an hour more then they can get tens of thousands in benefits. If they work any more, then combining Income Tax, NIC, UC Taper and more they can be on 70-80% plus real marginal tax rate.

    Its not finding jobs that is the issue, we have full employment. The bigger issue is people who don't work because they are being entirely rational in the tax system that exists!
    But you can't fix this issue without dragging a different set of people including people who are earning well over the median wage into the same "safety" net...

    We've discussed this before - the taper is too high but fixing the taper creates a different issue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,492
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/
    You wouldn’t get a high-brow paper putting a word like comestible on the front page.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Best Master Chef - The Professionals ever.

    No spoilers please - give folks a chance to catch up.

    I just hope it gets remembered for these chefs - and not Gregg Wallace's antics.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,204

    Would it be wise to mandate that all new builds (all buildings, not just homes) have skillion roofs that face south?

    (Scillion roofs are what are also termed "monopitch".)

    No, that's too crude, and could cause a monotonous built environment. Plus they are not necessarily cost efficient in an overall building.

    For a start E-W orientated panels can work better in the shoulder or winter months, when we arguably need solar to be optimised. And panels laid flat are not materially worse.

    South facing does not work very well, for example, on N-facing slopes, or on terraces, or on the N-side of elevated landscape.

    A better guide could be a certain amount of productive solar capacity per developed hectare, for example.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,204
    Foxy said:

    I'm with Kemi on this. Tomato doesn't belong in sandwiches. They make the bread soggy and also do not allow a clean bite, so pull out of the filling. A BLT is just about acceptable as you can put the T between layers and seperate it from the bread. Otherwise it is like pineapple on pizza.
    Tomato belongs in the hand, exploding over the white shirts of all your pretentious colleagues.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Foxy said:

    When I was signing on in the early Eighties, I couldn't get Unemployment benefit as I had no history of paying NI, but I was entitled to Supplementary benefit of about £22 per week, probably about £60 in current money.

    Do these other countries have a Supplementary benefit equivalent, for those with no NI record?
    No, albeit the US has time limited food stamps
  • Foxy said:

    I'm with Kemi on this. Tomato doesn't belong in sandwiches. They make the bread soggy and also do not allow a clean bite, so pull out of the filling. A BLT is just about acceptable as you can put the T between layers and seperate it from the bread. Otherwise it is like pineapple on pizza.
    ICYMI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYpSDNyVsFM
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    MattW said:

    Tomato belongs in the hand, exploding over the white shirts of all your pretentious colleagues.
    Don't get me wrong, I love tomatoes, Insalata Caprese is one of my favourite starters, though does require good beefy tomatoes, and buffalo mozzarella.

    Uncooked tomatoes should be kept away from bread though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,047

    The problem is no-one on the right is making any plausible proposals of how to get the underclass of economically active people into work.

    Surestart = cancelled
    Community and youth clubs = cut
    Probation service = cut
    Prison service = cut

    If we had two or three decades of investment in these areas you would gradually reduce the size of the underclass, a bit. You can't do it by rehashing schemes like linking benefits to job searching which have been repeatedly championed by every government I can remember. If that worked we wouldn't still be talking about it.
    Here's the thing.

    There are solutions. They just take much longer than the length of a parliament to have an effect. Which means that - all too often - governments are lazy.
  • Foxy said:

    I'm with Kemi on this. Tomato doesn't belong in sandwiches. They make the bread soggy and also do not allow a clean bite, so pull out of the filling. A BLT is just about acceptable as you can put the T between layers and seperate it from the bread. Otherwise it is like pineapple on pizza.
    Tomato is OK, but it has to be a sandwich you make to eat immediately, not one you make the night before for tomorrow's packed lunch. Also it is bland and needs something else. BLT is OK as bacon is salty. Adding basil would work. Cheese
    and tomato is meh (you need some crunch too which is why Cheddar and Branston works but cheese and chutney is also meh. And I am sure they have reduced the chunk size in Branston which is not good)
  • Foxy said:

    Don't get me wrong, I love tomatoes, Insalata Caprese is one of my favourite starters, though does require good beefy tomatoes, and buffalo mozzarella.

    Uncooked tomatoes should be kept away from bread though.
    You can preserve the bread by applying more butter than an NHS consultant is probably allowed to eat. That is what butter is for - you put fat in a sandwich to stop the ingredients making it soggy. And to make it a balanced meal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Tomato is OK, but it has to be a sandwich you make to eat immediately, not one you make the night before for tomorrow's packed lunch. Also it is bland and needs something else. BLT is OK as bacon is salty. Adding basil would work. Cheese
    and tomato is meh (you need some crunch too which is why Cheddar and Branston works but cheese and chutney is also meh. And I am sure they have reduced the chunk size in Branston which is not good)
    Branston is available both as original and as small chunk. I prefer the latter myself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,164
    edited December 2024

    The best way to reduce it is to eliminate the poverty trap by making work pay.

    If someone works 16 hours a week and not an hour more then they can get tens of thousands in benefits. If they work any more, then combining Income Tax, NIC, UC Taper and more they can be on 70-80% plus real marginal tax rate.

    Its not finding jobs that is the issue, we have full employment. The bigger issue is people who don't work because they are being entirely rational in the tax system that exists!
    But how would you change that Barty? Would you have a UC taper rate at 20%? If so millions more would be qualifying for UC.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,047

    The best way to reduce it is to eliminate the poverty trap by making work pay.

    If someone works 16 hours a week and not an hour more then they can get tens of thousands in benefits. If they work any more, then combining Income Tax, NIC, UC Taper and more they can be on 70-80% plus real marginal tax rate.

    Its not finding jobs that is the issue, we have full employment. The bigger issue is people who don't work because they are being entirely rational in the tax system that exists!
    This is absolutely spot on.

    We have managed to disincentivize work for an entire segment of the population, which degrades them and their skills, while encouraging immigration to fill the gap.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,164

    Tomato is OK, but it has to be a sandwich you make to eat immediately, not one you make the night before for tomorrow's packed lunch. Also it is bland and needs something else. BLT is OK as bacon is salty. Adding basil would work. Cheese
    and tomato is meh (you need some crunch too which is why Cheddar and Branston works but cheese and chutney is also meh. And I am sure they have reduced the chunk size in Branston which is not good)
    Ok calm down - it's nothing to get in a pickle about.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,539
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's the thing.

    There are solutions. They just take much longer than the length of a parliament to have an effect. Which means that - all too often - governments are lazy.
    That's not true - all 4 items things were initially cut by Osbourne's "Austerity" - which started with good ideas that had Labour's name all over them.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Scott_xP said:

    Front page of The Star tomorrow features a headline TSE would be proud of

    Sadly I can't post it here

    “Kemi Badenoch launches blistering attack on sandwiches” 🤣
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    You can preserve the bread by applying more butter than an NHS consultant is probably allowed to eat. That is what butter is for - you put fat in a sandwich to stop the ingredients making it soggy. And to make it a balanced meal
    I can see the point in an impermeable barrier in a breakfast snack, but there remains the issue of mixing lipid and aqueous phases without something to esterify the interface. Something acid might work, perhaps a tangy relish, but alcohol would probably be better. So beer and sandwiches it is, but not for breakfast. At that I draw the line.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,539
    rcs1000 said:

    This is absolutely spot on.

    We have managed to disincentivize work for an entire segment of the population, which degrades them and their skills, while encouraging immigration to fill the gap.
    The problem is that you can't fix where we are without dragging a lot of other families into a similar situation so you end up in a position where people seriously lose out when they can't find 16 hours work while incentivising a number of people who currently work 40 hours to work fewer as they start to qualify for some Universal Credit.

    That isn't to say I don't agree with Bart as I do - I just don't think the Government savings would be that great (or actually occur) the end result would be more people sucking on the benefit tit..
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited December 2024

    Aren’t the locals the same ones fought at Peak Boris though? So some Tory losses are likely I think?

    It feels like it’s a night that might be perfectly set up for a Tory/Labour losses, Reform gains result.
    What I would look for in the May locals in coming years is if the Conservatives do stand out on a night you would expect a sitting government to suffer a bit in mid term.

    This is where the top top - as Merson would say - Psephologists, like myself and Professor Curtice, acknowledge the opposition parties wins on the night but say it’s by not enough, opposition are not on course.

    What could we be looking at? Where Tories are not fighting Labour, but fighting LibDem, Green or Reform to regain, or gain a ward, how are they faring - as that could take the special topping off the win result, leaving just fruit cake of a win.

    The way I would put it is knowing the difference between the yardstick and the chopstick. What looks like a win over Labour on surface if you picked up a chopstick, the yardsticks can be showing it’s by not enough if a General Election night. In fact the main story of the locals could be Tory struggles under the surface against other parties, libdems, Greens, Reform, stealing the icing off the Tory cake, for me, it would points more to what happens next GE night than the headline Tory win - now we know for sure there’s three voting blocs who decided last GE seat totals, by how they worked together, or can’t work together.

    Or in short, measure our three voting bloc’s at the locals. As in previous locals this decade, libdems and greens need help from the voting bloc to advance, but labour need help from it for better than expected night. Not all of that might happen. Conservatives will be fighting Labour 1:1 but also fighting libdem, Green and Reform 1:1.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    edited December 2024

    Tomato is OK, but it has to be a sandwich you make to eat immediately, not one you make the night before for tomorrow's packed lunch. Also it is bland and needs something else. BLT is OK as bacon is salty. Adding basil would work. Cheese
    and tomato is meh (you need some crunch too which is why Cheddar and Branston works but cheese and chutney is also meh. And I am sure they have reduced the chunk size in Branston which is not good)
    A tomato shouldn't be bland. Obviously a supermarket bought tomato that has been grown to schedule in an industrial warehouse, and picked before it's ripe so that it won't rot in the supply chain, that tomato will be bland.

    But if you grow your own tomatoes in a greenhouse, and you let them get really ripe, those tomatoes will not be bland. Obviously, then, you'll only have tomatoes to eat for a couple of months in the year at best, but at least they will taste of something.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,905
    ydoethur said:

    I cannot, literally cannot, comprehend why Miliband is blowing zillions on CCS which won't work rather than putting free solar panels on every rooftop that wasn't personally designed and hand built by Christopher Wren.

    It seems to me an absolute no-brainer.
    Because the oil&gas industry has a very effective lobbying system, and he’s not very bright ?

    It is an idiotic misallocation of scarce resources, judged on every metric.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    US prison rate is five times ours. Better get on with building those prisons and increasing taxes to pay for more police and prison officers.
    The US has lower taxes than we do and more prisons. Of course they don't have universal public healthcare either, Farage also wants more US style private health insurance and not just NHS monopoly.

    There is also of course foodbanks and charity too in the US if you haven't got enough insurance contributions to get unemployment benefits or your benefits are time limited
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,905

    Tomato is OK, but it has to be a sandwich you make to eat immediately, not one you make the night before for tomorrow's packed lunch. Also it is bland and needs something else. BLT is OK as bacon is salty. Adding basil would work. Cheese
    and tomato is meh (you need some crunch too which is why Cheddar and Branston works but cheese and chutney is also meh. And I am sure they have reduced the chunk size in Branston which is not good)
    Panzanella says you are wrong.
    (I’d be interested in @Cyclefree ’s reaction to Kemi’s bread nonsense.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    The best way to reduce it is to eliminate the poverty trap by making work pay.

    If someone works 16 hours a week and not an hour more then they can get tens of thousands in benefits. If they work any more, then combining Income Tax, NIC, UC Taper and more they can be on 70-80% plus real marginal tax rate.

    Its not finding jobs that is the issue, we have full employment. The bigger issue is people who don't work because they are being entirely rational in the tax system that exists!
    That problem is less of an issue since universal credit
  • rcs1000 said:

    Here's the thing.

    There are solutions. They just take much longer than the length of a parliament to have an effect. Which means that - all too often - governments are lazy.
    Its not really a question of laziness. Its a mix of rational electoral incentives, the decline of the concept of public service/duty, and a lack of understanding.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564

    A tomato shouldn't be bland. Obviously a supermarket bought tomato that has been grown to schedule in an industrial warehouse, and picked before it's ripe so that it won't rot in the supply chain, that tomato will be bland.

    But if you grow your own tomatoes in a greenhouse, and you let them get really ripe, those tomatoes will not be bland. Obviously, then, you'll only have tomatoes to eat for a couple of months in the year at best, but at least they will taste of something.
    Imagine, if you will. Someone who didn't have their own greenhouse. I know. It's difficult to picture, even for a few months at best. But I've heard there are such people.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564

    You can preserve the bread by applying more butter than an NHS consultant is probably allowed to eat allowed to tell you to eat. That is what butter is for - you put fat in a sandwich to stop the ingredients making it soggy. And to make it a balanced meal
    Judging by my previous doctors anyway.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564

    Tomato is OK, but it has to be a sandwich you make to eat immediately, not one you make the night before for tomorrow's packed lunch. Also it is bland and needs something else. BLT is OK as bacon is salty. Adding basil would work. Cheese
    and tomato is meh (you need some crunch too which is why Cheddar and Branston works but cheese and chutney is also meh. And I am sure they have reduced the chunk size in Branston which is not good)
    This is why a tomato crisp buttie exists. A nice roll, 'some' butter, a big handful of tomato crisps.

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,147
    One of my favourite sandwiches is corned beef with tomato ketchup. And I don't like tomatoes
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,878
    slade said:

    One of my favourite sandwiches is corned beef with tomato ketchup. And I don't like tomatoes

    My favourite crisps are prawn cocktail.
    I'm also allergic to prawn.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141
    Average latest 5 polls

    Lab 26.2%
    Con 25.4%
    RefUK 22.4%
    LD 11.4%
    Grn 8.2%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967

    Nope, earliest sunset is 14th.
    Not here, and not sure about elsewhere
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    HYUFD said:

    That problem is less of an issue since universal credit
    Indeed. UC was a good idea and it's a pity IDC was stamped on by Osborne. Think of the good ideas the Conservatives generated over the past quarter of a century and it's a small list (Brexit was more imposed on it than generated by them). UC, Boris's levelling-up...then it becomes a list of smaller things like more train stations. :(
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,878
    Yes to butties.
    Yes to tomatoes.
    Yes to A Complete Unknown. Teasers look epic. (And it's got Ed Norton as Pete Seeger).
    No to home schooling.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's the thing.

    There are solutions. They just take much longer than the length of a parliament to have an effect. Which means that - all too often - governments are lazy.
    They aren't lazy. They won't do anything where

    a) the benefits don't get seen in that Parliament and especially

    b) where the pain of their actions is front-loaded into that Parliament, even if it bears great fruit 5 -10 years down the line. That is, when their political opponents might have taken over and get the credit.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Anyone else noticed that Walker's Smoky Bacon crisps are now damned near impossible to source?
  • IanB2 said:

    Not here, and not sure about elsewhere
    Apologies, looks like it is today. Nine straight days of sunset at 15:51, the 12th is in the middle of the range:

    https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/uk/london
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    HYUFD said:

    The US has lower taxes than we do and more prisons. Of course they don't have universal public healthcare either, Farage also wants more US style private health insurance and not just NHS monopoly.

    There is also of course foodbanks and charity too in the US if you haven't got enough insurance contributions to get unemployment benefits or your benefits are time limited
    Not sure arguing for US style jailing and social services is a great look.

    Tories, when you are in a 3rd place hole, stop digging.
  • Anyone else noticed that Walker's Smoky Bacon crisps are now damned near impossible to source?

    I don't put source in them
  • ohnotnow said:

    This is why a tomato crisp buttie exists. A nice roll, 'some' butter, a big handful of tomato crisps.

    When I was working at Cambridge 20 years ago, I used to like the chip buttie they had at Gardenia's.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    When I was working at Cambridge 20 years ago, I used to like the chip buttie they had at Gardenia's.
    Did you ever go upstairs?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,698

    Apologies, looks like it is today. Nine straight days of sunset at 15:51, the 12th is in the middle of the range:

    https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/uk/london
    I am sanguine about early sunsets. But late sunrises are a killerz and we have another seven weeks or so until sunrise before 8am.
  • The Dem problem in a total nutshell.



    Acyn
    @Acyn
    Trump: I tell the story about a woman who… went to a grocery store, had three apples and she put them down on the counter and she looked and saw the price and she said will you excuse me? And she walked one of the apples back to the refrigerator...

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1867316591521935778


    The comments are full of - 'why, that can't happen - apples aren't in the fridge', 'Trump made this up', 'No one would buy three apples and nothing else' etc etc.

    The Dems just don't get it. You gotta tell the voters a story. A narrative. Trump's story may often be actually made up but they are close enough to truth that Joe Public says 'yeh, huh, I saw that last week'.


  • carnforth said:

    Did you ever go upstairs?
    No, I just had it as take-away.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,878

    The Dem problem in a total nutshell.



    Acyn
    @Acyn
    Trump: I tell the story about a woman who… went to a grocery store, had three apples and she put them down on the counter and she looked and saw the price and she said will you excuse me? And she walked one of the apples back to the refrigerator...

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1867316591521935778


    The comments are full of - 'why, that can't happen - apples aren't in the fridge', 'Trump made this up', 'No one would buy three apples and nothing else' etc etc.

    The Dems just don't get it. You gotta tell the voters a story. A narrative. Trump's story may often be actually made up but they are close enough to truth that Joe Public says 'yeh, huh, I saw that last week'.


    See also.
    I eat at my desk.
    You do? Have you taken medical advice? It's straight up weird. People don't like to work when they don't have to.
  • Politicalbetting in 2024:

    Murder is valuable political theatre.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,492

    The Dem problem in a total nutshell.

    Acyn
    @Acyn
    Trump: I tell the story about a woman who… went to a grocery store, had three apples and she put them down on the counter and she looked and saw the price and she said will you excuse me? And she walked one of the apples back to the refrigerator...

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1867316591521935778


    The comments are full of - 'why, that can't happen - apples aren't in the fridge', 'Trump made this up', 'No one would buy three apples and nothing else' etc etc.

    The Dems just don't get it. You gotta tell the voters a story. A narrative. Trump's story may often be actually made up but they are close enough to truth that Joe Public says 'yeh, huh, I saw that last week'.

    It's amazing how many people are saying that you can't even buy apples individually. You certainly could the last time I was in a grocery store in the USA, but anything Trump says has to be wrong by definition.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,147
    Lab hold in Wakefield but big gains for Lib Dems and Reform.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141
    Just read about Lily Phillips. Maybe it's time to limit freedom.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    No, I just had it as take-away.
    I ask, because it was about five years into going to the Gardenia that someone told me it had an upstairs!
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 835
    edited December 2024
    Selebian said:

    Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke Badenoch

    Points for me?

    I do hope no one's nobbled her Wikipedia profile or I'm going to look silly!
    Well it's what I'd check your answer against Wikipedia so we rise and fall together. Unlike Anabobazina.
  • It's amazing how many people are saying that you can't even buy apples individually. You certainly could the last time I was in a grocery store in the USA, but anything Trump says has to be wrong by definition.
    Maybe you are right. I have no idea.

    But what the intellecto-left have to realise is that voters will just go 'oh ho, yes that's right - costs a bomb more' rather than ohhh, errr, you can't buy apples in threes, eerrrhhh, I got you lying etc etc...

    As Bill Clinton said the other day - you gotta meet the voters where they are.

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,147
    Reform gain in St Helens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,492
    slade said:

    Reform gain in St Helens.

    Blackbrook (St Helens) Council By-Election Result:

    ➡️ RFM: 41.1% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 34.7% (-18.4)
    🌍 GRN: 12.6% (-16.4)
    🌳 CON: 7.7% (-10.2)
    🙋 IND: 3.9% (New)

    Reform GAIN from Labour.
    Changes w/ 2022.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1867352053133070523
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141
    The polls aren't wrong about RefUK, are they.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,147
    Lib Dem hold in Barnsley.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 257
    Andy_JS said:

    The polls aren't wrong about RefUK, are they.

    no.

    Blackbrook (St Helens) Council By-Election Result: RFM: 41.1% (New) LAB: 34.7% (-18.4) GRN: 12.6% (-16.4) CON: 7.7% (-10.2) IND: 3.9% (New) Reform GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2022.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 257
    slade said:

    Reform gain in St Helens.

    These gains are pretty amazing for REFORM now. and match with the polls
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,492
    edited December 2024
    slade said:

    Lib Dem hold in Barnsley.

    Even there, Reform have taken around half the Labour vote.

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1867354585288827112

    Dodworth (Barnsley) Council By-Election Result:

    🔶 LDM: 49.7% (-1.7)
    ➡️ RFM: 24.3% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 16.1% (-18.5)
    🌳 CON: 7.1% (-6.9)
    🌍 GRN: 2.8% (New)

    Liberal Democrat HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2024.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Foxy said:

    Not sure arguing for US style jailing and social services is a great look.

    Tories, when you are in a 3rd place hole, stop digging.
    Except it is Farage and Reform arguing for it not the Tories and they are the ones surging on tonight’s local by elections
  • Maybe you are right. I have no idea.

    But what the intellecto-left have to realise is that voters will just go 'oh ho, yes that's right - costs a bomb more' rather than ohhh, errr, you can't buy apples in threes, eerrrhhh, I got you lying etc etc...

    As Bill Clinton said the other day - you gotta meet the voters where they are.

    The voters simultaneously want both higher wages and lower prices alongside more government spending and lower taxes.
  • carnforth said:

    Did you ever go upstairs?
    Yeah I've been up there a couple of times as my husband likes their 'Greek Fried Chicken '. You do get the impression that it's only ever been wiped with a moist cloth once every 10 years. The Gardenia isn't a patch on the Erania which I miss intensely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited December 2024

    The Dem problem in a total nutshell.



    Acyn
    @Acyn
    Trump: I tell the story about a woman who… went to a grocery store, had three apples and she put them down on the counter and she looked and saw the price and she said will you excuse me? And she walked one of the apples back to the refrigerator...

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1867316591521935778


    The comments are full of - 'why, that can't happen - apples aren't in the fridge', 'Trump made this up', 'No one would buy three apples and nothing else' etc etc.

    The Dems just don't get it. You gotta tell the voters a story. A narrative. Trump's story may often be actually made up but they are close enough to truth that Joe Public says 'yeh, huh, I saw that last week'.


    They absolutely do put fruit like apples in the fridge in places like Bodegas i.e. NY corner shops, because it gets so warm / humid in the summer and those places are like little heat boxes.

    https://freshfoodsnyc.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/the-bedford-express-fresh-bodega/

    Also, its quite common in supermarkets (normally higher ends ones) to have all the produce in open refrigerated shelving that also sprays mists of water.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,233

    Anyone else noticed that Walker's Smoky Bacon crisps are now damned near impossible to source?

    It's like the Algonquin Round Table on here tonight.
  • The voters simultaneously want both higher wages and lower prices alongside more government spending and lower taxes.
    Indeed they do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    The Dem problem in a total nutshell.



    Acyn
    @Acyn
    Trump: I tell the story about a woman who… went to a grocery store, had three apples and she put them down on the counter and she looked and saw the price and she said will you excuse me? And she walked one of the apples back to the refrigerator...

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1867316591521935778


    The comments are full of - 'why, that can't happen - apples aren't in the fridge', 'Trump made this up', 'No one would buy three apples and nothing else' etc etc.

    The Dems just don't get it. You gotta tell the voters a story. A narrative. Trump's story may often be actually made up but they are close enough to truth that Joe Public says 'yeh, huh, I saw that last week'.


    Hope they are US apples as if they are foreign apples once Trump’s tariffs kick in she would have to take them all back
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's like the Algonquin Round Table on here tonight.
    No Sirree!
  • Nigelb said:

    Because the oil&gas industry has a very effective lobbying system, and he’s not very bright ?

    It is an idiotic misallocation of scarce resources, judged on every metric.
    At least some in the Oil and Gas industry are telling him its an idiotic idea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    The voters simultaneously want both higher wages and lower prices alongside more government spending and lower taxes.
    The average voter is a non graduate on average wage we often forget. They want a lot of things, government can’t deliver them all, the problem is most in government are highly educated and high earners and can’t explain that to said average voters in words they will accept
  • Anyway, I doubt that even in the USA people are in the poor house because of the price of fruit rather than the cost of housing.
  • HYUFD said:

    The average voter is a non graduate on average wage we often forget. They want a lot of things, government can’t deliver them all, the problem is most in government are highly educated and high earners and can’t explain that to said average voters in words they will accept
    It doesn't matter what anyone in government says if they themselves live by different rules.

    "We're all in this together" has to be followed by politicians.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    .

    Well it's what I'd check your answer against Wikipedia so we rise and fall together. Unlike Anabobazina.
    She goes by Kemi, ergo it’s perfectly valid to say Kemi is her name. Unlike Kier, which is not Keir’s name, but your dumbo misspelling.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited December 2024

    Anyway, I doubt that even in the USA people are in the poor house because of the price of fruit rather than the cost of housing.

    Actually in places like NYC they have aggressive rent controls for the poor, but those people often have limited choices when it comes to supermarkets. So your rent can be manageable and has been capped for years, but other costs of living like food have really hit hard.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    At least some in the Oil and Gas industry are telling him its an idiotic idea.
    Just not the part trousering the billions...
  • I am very very busy all day, but a weird news cycle with talks of apples in fridges and if a sandwich is real food...its a good job there aren't any important things happening in the world.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141

    Anyway, I doubt that even in the USA people are in the poor house because of the price of fruit rather than the cost of housing.

    The cost of groceries in the US is pretty shocking, about twice as much as it would be in the UK for the same type of quality.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141

    The voters simultaneously want both higher wages and lower prices alongside more government spending and lower taxes.
    Also, they believe taxes should be higher for people earning slightly more than they are.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The cost of groceries in the US is pretty shocking, about twice as much as it would be in the UK for the same type of quality.
    Indeed, there's plenty on YouTube on this issue.

    Though it does rather demolish claims that a free trade agreement would lead to a flood of American food in British supermarkets.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 835
    edited December 2024

    .

    She goes by Kemi, ergo it’s perfectly valid to say Kemi is her name. Unlike Kier, which is not Keir’s name, but your dumbo misspelling.

    I asked you to spell her name in full if you wanted to impress me. I'd even have let you spell "Olukemi" "Kemi" if you like.

    As it is...
  • .

    She goes by Kemi, ergo it’s perfectly valid to say Kemi is her name. Unlike Kier, which is not Keir’s name, but your dumbo misspelling.

    Kembot!
  • Police chiefs have warned the home secretary that without further funding neighbourhood police officers - a government priority - could be cut.

    Nearly a quarter of police forces in England and Wales have called on Yvette Cooper to underwrite the costs of pay rises and higher employer taxes when details of their funding are announced early next week.

    Some are facing budget deficits of £10m or more, and the chief constable of Lincolnshire Police has told the BBC the jobs of a third of his officers could be at risk, jeopardising the force's viability.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clykw2yl40go
  • So, thoughts on the planning changes?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141
    I think we may have reached the limits of libertarianism, with the case of Lily Phillips.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbV07tK0sn4
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,047
    Andy_JS said:

    Average latest 5 polls

    Lab 26.2%
    Con 25.4%
    RefUK 22.4%
    LD 11.4%
    Grn 8.2%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Socialist Nutters - 25%
    Conservative Nutters - 25%
    Faragist Nutters - 25%
    Yellowy Green Nutters - 25%

    Good luck guys!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,047

    It's amazing how many people are saying that you can't even buy apples individually. You certainly could the last time I was in a grocery store in the USA, but anything Trump says has to be wrong by definition.
    Of course you can buy single Apples in the US. Nobody is forcing anyone to buy more than one iPhone at a time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,141
    rcs1000 said:

    Socialist Nutters - 25%
    Conservative Nutters - 25%
    Faragist Nutters - 25%
    Yellowy Green Nutters - 25%

    Good luck guys!
    I think Starmer has got the message that very high levels of migration have got to be brought under control. It'll be interesting if he actually do anything about it though,
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Well it's what I'd check your answer against Wikipedia so we rise and fall together. Unlike Anabobazina.
    Olu Olu?

    Is Kemi launching assault on sandwiches fake news? It’s not on MailOnline.
This discussion has been closed.