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It’s Kemi Badenough for the Tories as they sink to third – politicalbetting.com
It’s Kemi Badenough for the Tories as they sink to third – politicalbetting.com
I suspect for the new few months (if not years) we might see three parties oscillate in the polls given how close the top three are.
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If we see significant changes in 2025 (eg the Tories slipping back to low 20s, Reform into low 30s), then we’ll see more pressure. But not now.
If they dump Badenoch, they should go for a Hunt-type figure.
The locals so far have been good for the conservatives and lib dems, but the real test is coming in May 2026 with the Welsh and Scottish elections for the Senedd and Holyrood
The opportunity has never been greater for them, but at the same time there's risk here: a failure to establish a foothold, and the story of the night being big Conservative gains, and then it's that little bit harder for them.
Trump anti Ukraine using missiles fired into Russia
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-war-ukraine-russia-end-missiles-b1199674.html
And this Nigeria stuff is beyond ridiculous. She could pick a fight in an empty room.
It feels like it’s a night that might be perfectly set up for a Tory/Labour losses, Reform gains result.
Another point I'd make is that for all their low polling Labour's position is structurally strong and will remain so for as long as there is no serious threat to the left of them. If the economy does ok, the NHS gets better, immigration comes down, some housing gets built, and the gilt market retains confidence, I make them clear favs for a 2nd term.
Then there's the Trump factor. Just as his win is blowing a bubble for the national populist right so his implosion will pop it. And he will implode. There's nothing more certain than that.
Conservatives are defending good results on this round of elections, but Labour are doing so badly that possibly the Tories will do ok, but a lot of these are County elections and I suspect the Tories are going to lose quite a few seats to the LDs in these.
I expect the Tories to lose Surrey for only the 2nd time in the history of Surrey CC. I think there is a chance of the LDs taking control (although a much longer chance than the Tories losing it). If they do it will be the first time.
If anyone or anything becomes too short in any UK political market - and that includes Nige atm - just lay it. But bear in mind if you're doing the next PM you may be waiting a decade or more for collection in worst case, so ensure you're happy to keep on playing the market that long to build up a healthy book!
One test in my neck of the woods two local by-elections today: one in Featherstone, outside Wakefield, and one in Dodworth, outside Barnsley. Both have strong Lab-Ref swing potential.
Hunt is dry and properly Tory, but he'll be seen as Wet/Remainery type and won't get through the members.
Not enough for LOTO. She's getting outgunned by Farage.
And to choose not to govern... well, it might work, because it avoids them being tarred with the the brush of when things don't work. But it also means they lack an army of on the ground volunteers. It also complicates their job of concentrating their support.
It took the LibDems/Alliance until the 1990s to take local government seriously. And it was only when they did, that they made their big breakthrough.
That said: Reform's vote ceiling is clearly higher. They could - I'm sure - get in the 30s. The danger is that they end up in the 30s everywhere, while the Lib/Lab/Con have less even support, and therefore much greater vote efficiency.
Another PB Dumbo who cannot spell the name of even the most high-profile of politicians.
Lab 289
Con 153
LD 71
Ref 86
Oth 14
Green 4
Nats 14 + 4
And yes in office we got the same guy. Stiff, wooden, dull
However what we DID expect was honesty, competence and interesting new policies; instead, from day one, we got zero policies (apart from cutting WFA), weird incompetence, and loads of stories about his wife getting free knickers
So, yeah, it was easy to dismiss Starmer very quickly - and that’s what the British public (me included) have done. See his unprecedented fall in personal polling
That just shows how efficient the Labour vote has become...won't stay that way forever, obvs, but way more seats on 26% than RefCon on 48%.
I don't agree with his assessment that he wasn't sorry it happened, although I have to fight quite hard against an instinctive agreement.
Mainly, though, it reaffirms for me what a valuable place this site is for discussions of politics. The fact that Max can defend a position that essentially advocates murder as a response to societal failure is free speech at its best imo, and is a credit to him, this site and the state of free speech in UK despite the naysayers.
They will be desperate for a winnable by election to get Penny Mordaunt back in to HoC
I can envisage an older Tory with a rock solid majority falling on their sword to get Penny in.
Well we'll see. I think you've gone too early. The signs are there for something eminently acceptable emerging.
The main task is to get the British people to be realistic. Stop thinking some government is going to bring back pre-2008 growth. Just forget that and count the incremental wins on other things.
Trash as much Russian infrastructure as they can. Hastening the end of the Russian economy is something Trump will be poorly placed to prevent.
1. The rule of law is what separates us from chaos. We need to preserve it and so, whatever the rights and wrongs of Mangione's action, it is vital that such actions are vanishingly rare. There is a real risk of copycat acts that could spell dark, dark times.
2. Protest is a vital part of democracy. In my view, Mangione's action fits into the same category as the Colston statue removal a few years back; as political theatre it is valuable and important (and we might even go so far as to welcome it as MaxPB seemed to do) but the actors in it should still face the legal consequences of their actions
Olukemi.
** Sir Ed Davey lunch intervention **
A spokesman for the Liberal Democrat leader says: "Ed does not think lunch is for wimps, he does think sandwiches are a real food and his favourite sandwich would be bacon with ketchup."
More as we get it.
Points for me?
I do hope no one's nobbled her Wikipedia profile or I'm going to look silly!
To follow up my own post with a more detailed analysis...I find this topic absolutely fascinating. A few connected thoughts:
1. The rule of law is what separates us from chaos. We need to preserve it and so, whatever the rights and wrongs of Mangione's action, it is vital that such actions are vanishingly rare. There is a real risk of copycat acts that could spell dark, dark times.
2. Protest is a vital part of democracy. In my view, Mangione's action fits into the same category as the Colston statue removal a few years back; as political theatre it is valuable and important (and we might even go so far as to welcome it as MaxPB seemed to do) but the actors in it should still face the legal consequences of their actions. It's one of the things that makes protesting a brave thing to do.
3. If we argue that individuals within a system are not responsible for systemic wrongs (the CEO was simply responding to the economic incentives of his role) then we should apply that criteria equally to eg drug dealers on street corners. I'd argue everyone within a role does what makes sense to them to get by. I'd go further and say that we should hold the rich more responsible for not refusing to participate in a broken system than the poor, and as such Thompson was more liable for his actions than a drug dealer on a street corner would be, whether his actions are legal or not.
4. There is a limit to the legitimacy of a whole system that permits the health outcomes that poor Americans suffer. Just as I have sympathy for a Gazan Dad who turns to terrorism because his kids are killed by the Israeli government, I also have sympathy for an American who taps out of the rule of law because they have been completely fucked over by their healthcare system.
Now they can split into two parties and focus on building out from their respective core votes without having to ride two horses at the same time.
I see a lot of Tories project on her as a potential leader. As (I think) a Labour supporter, what do you see that I've missed?
A bacon sarnie is in a different category. The category of bacon roll. And it's not ketchup in that context, it's red sauce.
Fail all round for Sir Ed.
The Tory leader later attacked Starmer for saying that he might watch Love Actually over Christmas, adding that she prefers watching Die Hard over the festive period.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/i-will-not-touch-bread-if-it-is-moist-kemi-badenoch-sparks-westminster-food-fight
Labour would also lose 123 MPs and their majority to reach 289 MPs in a hung parliament.
The biggest gainers would indeed be Reform, up 81 seats to 86 MPs, overtaking the LDs on 71 MPs. Yet even if second on votes Farage's party would still be 3rd on seats behind the Tories and Labour
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=23&LAB=26&LIB=11&Reform=25&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
Nothing will ever top Kemi-kaze.
I re-watched Apollo 13 the other day. Made in 1995 and still a great film despite knowing how it ended. Jim Lovell is still alive btw.
(And they need mushrooms and onion rings.)
https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/waitrose-12-unsmoked-dry-cured-streaky-bacon-rashers/007685-3600-3601
Though at £14/kg it's not for every day.
She only works 2 days a week and her diary has been filled with a row about sandwiches.
Silly girl even decided to argue back. Clearly she really cannot read a room...
On this occasion hiding for the next 5 days may be a good idea.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1hcn255/private_photos_of_the_former_leader_of_syria/
I appreciate that PB is no stranger to puns but this is slightly different in the context of a second generation immigrant with a non-native name.
I'll be the judge of his bacon sandwiches.
The man became so close that he was invited to Andrew’s birthday party and was authorised to act on his behalf to seek investors in China, a secret hearing has been told.
MI5 allegedly discovered the businessman, 50, was a member of the Chinese Communist Party and was working for its United Front Work Department, which gathers intelligence.
His ban from entering the UK has been upheld after an appeal to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/prince-andrew-alleged-chinese-spy-banned-britain-rw8320qfh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_11_(2019_film)
Free speech in the UK is fundamentally in danger and I think we need a first amendment style of law to protect it now which overrides any and all other restrictions that have been placed on free speech other than incitement to violence or panic. There should be no right for someone's offence to override my freedom of expression.