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Farage remains the favourite to be the next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFD said:

    Sandwiches were of course invented by the Earl of Sandwich in the 18th century precisely because it meant he could eat roast beef between slices of bread and still gamble
    Everyone knows that. What fewer people know is that boiled eggs were invented by the Marquess of Boiled who, when asked if he wanted anything with his thin strips of toast during a particularly intense game of backgammon, yelled at his footman, "Hot egg! I just want hot egg, shell on."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,966

    We seldom complain at Leon's "habit of bursting into caps every couple of sentences".
    That would be like complaining about the burglar having dirty shoes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Taz said:

    I am not a great fan of Greggs stuff, I prefer my local Farm shop (Holmside) for Sausage rolls. However the Vegan sausage roll Greggs do is really quite decent.

    They should try one, they might like it.
    Vegan sausage rolls are to Greggs what Coffee is to McDonalds.

    The item on the menu which will minimise objections, before the remainder of the meal commits a heart attack.

    The sodium thiopental, before the potassium chloride enters the building.

    Discuss :smile: .
  • mwadams said:

    Though at the moment a lot of Reform's gains come from drawing in a disproportionate share of the more loosely coupled Labour voters from GE2024. That doesn't do the Tories any good, and will reduce Labour's majority significantly at the next GE - but who doesn't expect that from Labour's ridiculously efficient starting point?
    I still think the chances of just a smaller Labour majority are underpriced.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    Sardines and peanut butter. Yah!! Might give that one a go.
    A toasted ham and cheese sandwich being the top one. That's a bit "Croque Monsieur".

    I like the look of a few of them. I will bookmark both sites and make a couple. The eggs and noodles looks lush.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    MattW said:

    Vegan sausage rolls are to Greggs what Coffee is to McDonalds.

    The item on the menu which will minimise objections, before the remainder of the meal commits a heart attack.

    The sodium thiopental, before the potassium chloride enters the building.

    Discuss :smile: .
    I have only been to McDonalds twice in the last 30 years, once of which was on a business trip in Slovakia, so feel unable to offer a view on them. Sadly.
  • MattW said:

    Vegan sausage rolls are to Greggs what Coffee is to McDonalds.

    The item on the menu which will minimise objections, before the remainder of the meal commits a heart attack.

    The sodium thiopental, before the potassium chloride enters the building.

    Discuss :smile: .
    Pre-pandemic staff canteen anecdata: vegan sausage rolls outsold sausage sausage rolls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    FF43 said:

    Conservatives and Reform are polling mostly the same set of voters. It's not easy to get a result where both parties significantly increase their seats. Farage would do better if the Conservatives go backwards from their disastrous 2024 result. I presume the Conservatives don't want to do that?
    That is simply not true.

    The polls now show that the Tories are holding their 2024 voters who are largely middle class and adding a few 2024 middle class Labour voters.

    Reform meanwhile are making big gains from 2024 white working class Labour voters, especially in the redwall to add to their largely working class July voters
  • HYUFD said:

    May be Davey's moment, most polls make him Kingmaker at the next GE in a hung parliament not Farage.

    Davey would likely demand Starmer returns to the EEA with free movement while also scrapping the tractor tax and restoring winter fuel allowance for pensioners as the price for his support
    Tractor tax and winter fuel allowance just won't be issues at the next General Election. They are issues now, and may well be through to the local elections. But they won't be the ground on which the 2028/29 election is fought - they are relatively ephemeral issues compared with long running issues like social care and trading relationships.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    edited December 2024

    A fundamental principle of law stretching back, ooh, about 800 years at least.

    People can vent and emote, I get that, but the problem with social media is that it can, and does, cross over into real action.
    Kill one rich guy on the streets of Manhattan and the law swings rapidly into action and tracks you down within days.

    Kill tens of thousands by perpetrating medical insurance fraud across America and you are lauded for increasing profits.

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Perhaps someone should have read that quote about the benefit of the law to the CEO. He certainly seemed to think he could enjoy the law's protection without sticking to it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    The counting still continues in the good old US of A - the state adding most votes this time is now... New York !

    More Trump votes than Harris votes apparently

    Electoral college bias -0.23%
    (+ve number is toward Harris, -ve is toward Trump)

    Trump 77302654
    Harris 75015847
  • I thought Kemi Badenoch was channelling Gordon Gekko from Wall Street about lunch being for wimps?
  • ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
  • Oh Badenoch, that interview is accidental Parridge.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    Ratters said:

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    In 18 years, he'll be old enough to become US President!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,551

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Unless you're the King President
  • MattW said:

    Vegan sausage rolls are to Greggs what Coffee is to McDonalds.

    The item on the menu which will minimise objections, before the remainder of the meal commits a heart attack.

    The sodium thiopental, before the potassium chloride enters the building.

    Discuss :smile: .
    Firstly, vegan sausage rolls sell seriously well at Greggs - people genuinely like them and they are top sellers. People also commonly buy them on their own - they generally aren't a side dish, they are the lunch.

    Secondly, coffee probably isn't the analogy you were looking for at McDonalds. It isn't particularly seen as a healthy product - it's just the alternative to Coke if you go in for breakfast. You're probably more thinking about the option to get carrot sticks rather than fries, which basically nobody does.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    I thought Kemi Badenoch was channelling Gordon Gekko from Wall Street about lunch being for wimps?

    Also Del Boy from Only Fools during his Yuppie phase.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    Pre-pandemic staff canteen anecdata: vegan sausage rolls outsold sausage sausage rolls.
    That's because most sausages are disgusting.
    And even the very nice Heck sausages have too much salt in them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    Taz said:

    "Tell me about this strange earth custom known only as "kissing", Cpt Kirk", says a voluptuous, scantily clad, blonde haired green skinned alien woman in her early twenties.

    "Tell me about this strange Earth custom known as moist bread, Cpt Badenoch!"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited December 2024

    The significant thing is that Starmer isn’t afraid to lean into nativism to attack ethnic minority politicians.
    I've remarked before that I think the Starmer Government has been leaning too heavily into disarming existing or potential Conservative attacks - trimming on measures needed in the budget, for example, such as spending even more billions cutting fuel excise duty further in real terms.

    Another is Rachel Reeve's 'here and no further' comments on tax increases so far.

    That gives the opposition more influence than they deserve or should have imo, when the need is to drive through the strategic policies of the new Government. As I see it, one of Starmer's core domestic political requirement is to deliver perceptible and visible improvement to voters in time to win their votes in 2028 or 2029. Even if he is playing a top drawer game internationally, unless there is a White Swan (is that a thing?) domestic politics is the sausage, and international politics is the sizzle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited December 2024

    I thought Kemi Badenoch was channelling Gordon Gekko from Wall Street about lunch being for wimps?

    Next manifesto to be titled "Greed is Good*"

    *Except at lunchtime.
  • Tractor tax and winter fuel allowance just won't be issues at the next General Election. They are issues now, and may well be through to the local elections. But they won't be the ground on which the 2028/29 election is fought - they are relatively ephemeral issues compared with long running issues like social care and trading relationships.
    The bigger issues will be the triple lock which Stride has already said is unsustainable, in addition to social care, tax, spending and borrowing

    Tractor tax and WFP will not be on the agenda but the legacy of ill feeling may remain
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195

    Firstly, vegan sausage rolls sell seriously well at Greggs - people genuinely like them and they are top sellers. People also commonly buy them on their own - they generally aren't a side dish, they are the lunch.

    Secondly, coffee probably isn't the analogy you were looking for at McDonalds. It isn't particularly seen as a healthy product - it's just the alternative to Coke if you go in for breakfast. You're probably more thinking about the option to get carrot sticks rather than fries, which basically nobody does.
    As it happens, I have a free coffee every month at Greggs with my current car insurance policy (no idea why), but I have yet to claim one.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Nigelb said:

    Next manifesto to be titled "Greed is Good*"

    *Except at lunchtime.
    "Let them eat steak"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    .

    He didn't deserve to be killed.

    He did deserve to be prosecuted.
    Prosecuted by the same DA's office that receives millions in donations from companies like UHC to turn a blind eye to their fraud? Or by the US Attorney who gets instructions from politicians not to go after the donor class?

    This seems to be the justice that was available for the thousands of people this CEO killed with his policies. Was it right? No. Are people sorry it happened? Also a resounding no.

    I hope this will lead to some actual prosecutions of companies and executives that have defrauded the American public but that seems unlikely to me. If anything things will get worse and these kinds of acts will become more acceptable because people feel powerless to change things. Just as Trump swept away the big corporate loving Dems, I think a Bernie like candidate will sweep MAGA away if they don't do anything about companies ripping off ordinary people.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,698

    "Tell me about this strange Earth custom known as moist bread, Cpt Badenoch!"
    I have sympathy with Kemi here. Far too many shop bought sandwiches are soggy, and mayonnaise is far too liberally applied. I always avoid any shop bought sandwich which contains tomatoes.
  • Firstly, vegan sausage rolls sell seriously well at Greggs - people genuinely like them and they are top sellers. People also commonly buy them on their own - they generally aren't a side dish, they are the lunch.

    Secondly, coffee probably isn't the analogy you were looking for at McDonalds. It isn't particularly seen as a healthy product - it's just the alternative to Coke if you go in for breakfast. You're probably more thinking about the option to get carrot sticks rather than fries, which basically nobody does.
    Coffee is fantastically healthy, packed fully of antioxidants and other nutrient compounds. It's even got a bit of fibre in it.
  • Kill one rich guy on the streets of Manhattan and the law swings rapidly into action and tracks you down within days.

    Kill tens of thousands by perpetrating medical insurance fraud across America and you are lauded for increasing profits.

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Perhaps someone should have read that quote about the benefit of the law to the CEO. He certainly seemed to think he could enjoy the law's protection without sticking to it.
    Two rising zeitgeists in America combined. First, political violence is legitimate in good causes (which in practice means provided you feel strongly about something, such as a stolen election). Second, that the squillionaire class is all take (profiteering; government subsidies; massive tax cuts) and no giving back.
  • Told you Badenoch had faulty judgment and is out of touch with the British public.

    But [Badenoch] is also inspired by fiction and is a fan of Game of Thrones. Asked if she identifies with Daenerys Targaryen, known as the Mother of Dragons, she said: “I strongly associated with Daenerys, yes.” She added that the character — a queen who demands unswerving loyalty, can walk through fire and has a penchant for immolating her enemies — is “much misunderstood”.

    She is less keen on another cult favourite, however: the Christmas film Love Actually.

    “There’s actually quite a lot of dark undertones to Love Actually,” she told the magazine. “There is a British prime minister who’s messing around and is not doing the foreign policy properly, people are cheating … there is a lot going on there if you move away from the smiley, happy, cheesy stuff.”

    Instead, she enjoys Die Hard, which she describes as “a good Christmas-adjacent movie”. She added: “My favourite Christmas movie is probably a tie between Gremlins and Scrooged. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past is a close third. So I do like the Scrooge theme.“


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-interview-tory-party-news-m6kxgwvhc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I thought Kemi Badenoch was channelling Gordon Gekko from Wall Street about lunch being for wimps?

    I'm home not sure that Bobby J would have been worse. Kemi has been mostly anonymous and her interventions that have cut through have been weird.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    Fishing said:

    So that's why its approval rating has collapsed and they are third in the polls, despite the last government being pretty rubbish?

    I was confused for a while, thinking it meant they were utterly shite and out of their depths.

    Thanks for clarifying.
    I'm surprised you don't appreciate Labour's strategy. It's straight out of the Thatcher playbook. Her government was the most disapproved of in anyone's living memory for the first year or two......

    ...........before convincing them that it was all part of the act. Get the unpopular stuff out of the way and it'll be sweet smelling roses from here on in and she won again ......and again....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    "Tell me about this strange Earth custom known as moist bread, Cpt Badenoch!"
    So she was actually channelling Dan Ackroyd in Blues Brothers ?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    I still think the chances of just a smaller Labour majority are underpriced.
    I agree. I think the most likely outcome is a Labour majority, just not a massive Labour majority.

    I also think there's a good chance the LDs do *better* than last time because they will hang on to most of their wins, and take a few near misses.

    But so much can happen between now and then, it's pretty much moot.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    .

    A fundamental principle of law stretching back, ooh, about 800 years at least.

    People can vent and emote, I get that, but the problem with social media is that it can, and does, cross over into real action.
    The irony of that quote is that the real Sir Thomas Moore allowed all sorts of dodgy and illegal practises when he was prosecuting heretics.

    Which got quoted back to him, in court, when he questioned some of the evidence against him.

    Another thing that is old as sin - someone being surprised when he gets a necktie at his favourite hanging tree.

    The Revolution always eats its own.
  • Nigelb said:

    Next manifesto to be titled "Greed is Good*"

    *Except at lunchtime.
    As opposed to Boris's manifesto, Greek is Good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Kill one rich guy on the streets of Manhattan and the law swings rapidly into action and tracks you down within days.

    Kill tens of thousands by perpetrating medical insurance fraud across America and you are lauded for increasing profits.

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Perhaps someone should have read that quote about the benefit of the law to the CEO. He certainly seemed to think he could enjoy the law's protection without sticking to it.
    US voters could elect a candidate promising Medicare for all but they don't, the only reason the US is the only OECD nation without universal healthcare is because most US voters don't want to pay the taxes to fund it.

    The CEO was head of a private healthcare insurance company being paid to make a profit and manage risk in its healthcare funding. There was no excuse for his murder
  • My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    Two rising zeitgeists in America combined. First, political violence is legitimate in good causes (which in practice means provided you feel strongly about something, such as a stolen election)...
    See also throttling to death slightly scary people on the metro.
  • Two rising zeitgeists in America combined. First, political violence is legitimate in good causes (which in practice means provided you feel strongly about something, such as a stolen election). Second, that the squillionaire class is all take (profiteering; government subsidies; massive tax cuts) and no giving back.
    Odd, because the american people have just elected a president who is or claims to be in that class and certainly intends his government to be run by and stuff full of billionaires grifting as hard as they can grift.

    The people were offered an alternative and they voted for the rich people.

  • Told you Badenoch had faulty judgment and is out of touch with the British public.

    But [Badenoch] is also inspired by fiction and is a fan of Game of Thrones. Asked if she identifies with Daenerys Targaryen, known as the Mother of Dragons, she said: “I strongly associated with Daenerys, yes.” She added that the character — a queen who demands unswerving loyalty, can walk through fire and has a penchant for immolating her enemies — is “much misunderstood”.

    She is less keen on another cult favourite, however: the Christmas film Love Actually.

    “There’s actually quite a lot of dark undertones to Love Actually,” she told the magazine. “There is a British prime minister who’s messing around and is not doing the foreign policy properly, people are cheating … there is a lot going on there if you move away from the smiley, happy, cheesy stuff.”

    Instead, she enjoys Die Hard, which she describes as “a good Christmas-adjacent movie”. She added: “My favourite Christmas movie is probably a tie between Gremlins and Scrooged. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past is a close third. So I do like the Scrooge theme.“


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-interview-tory-party-news-m6kxgwvhc

    Kemi hates Love Actually, which as we know from the More in Common Polls for The Rest is Entertainment (see the last thread header) is the most popular Christmas film for Conservative voters. She's not focus-grouped this interview.
  • Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Farage was born in the same year as Keanu Reeves. I suspect Keanu has rather better health.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,220
    Foxy said:

    It's even more bonkers than that:



    So much to unpack there:

    Lunch is for wimps.

    "I have food brought in"

    Desk steaks?

    Sandwiches are for breakfast?

    How dry does bread have to be?
    That's like someone has re-written a Trump quote to be slightly more coherent :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Our propaganda will now be FAIR and ACCURATE.

    https://thehill.com/media/5036312-trump-kari-lake-director-voice-of-america/
    President-elect Trump announced he is tapping Kari Lake, a former news anchor and staunch Trump supporter, to head the government-funded news outlet Voice of America.
    “I am pleased to announce that Kari Lake will serve as our next Director of the Voice of America,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday night.
    Lake will “ensure that the American values of Freedom and Liberty are broadcast around the World FAIRLY and ACCURATELY, unlike the lies spread by the Fake News Media,” Trump added...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Nigelb said:

    See also throttling to death slightly scary people on the metro.
    No that doesn't compare at all. All of the eyewitnesses say the man in question was threatening to kill people on that train. The person who subdued the would be murderer saved many lives that day. That it went to court is ridiculous but at least the correct verdict was reached.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Scott_xP said:

    Unless you're the King President
    Or the son of the President.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    Kemi Badenoch decided to attack Starmer on immigration.

    What is she doing?

    It's a Tory rite-of-passage to show that you don't like immigrants.

    Bizarre but true.
  • Roger said:

    I'm surprised you don't appreciate Labour's strategy. It's straight out of the Thatcher playbook. Her government was the most disapproved of in anyone's living memory for the first year or two......

    ...........before convincing them that it was all part of the act. Get the unpopular stuff out of the way and it'll be sweet smelling roses from here on in and she won again ......and again....
    Only 18% approval though
  • Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    We could have an all-new line-up at the next general election. Kemi hates sandwiches and Love Actually and is making no impact at PMQs. Farage is old and uninterested in day-to-day politics. Starmer is old and made another verbal slip at PMQs. Ed Davey risks drowning.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 783
    Cookie said:

    I have sympathy with Kemi here. Far too many shop bought sandwiches are soggy, and mayonnaise is far too liberally applied. I always avoid any shop bought sandwich which contains tomatoes.
    I never understand why anyone buys a pre-made sandwich at a shop, they are all overpriced and disgusting. I always make my own.

    Badenoch's comment about lunch, though, is a small indication of poor judgement. My current employer sends out reminders from time to time that not only should we take a proper break from work at lunchtime, it should be away from our desks. And that's not because they are doing so out of the goodness of their hearts, there is a clear benefit in afternoon performance of doing so.

    I also have a feeling that there is a requirement on an employer to ensure that staff take the break they are entitled to?
  • Kemi hates Love Actually, which as we know from the More in Common Polls for The Rest is Entertainment (see the last thread header) is the most popular Christmas film for Conservative voters. She's not focus-grouped this interview.
    She's right about Love Actually, if nothing else.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,220
    Farage as PM? I just can't see it. Mind you, I couldn't see Trump ever getting re-elected. My faith in US voters was misplaced and cost me money - does the same apply to my faith in UK voters?

    While proper fragmentation, Con/ref and Lab losing votes to Greens, tankies-light and Lib Dems* could see Ref winning on sub-30, I still think there would be a concerted tactical voting operation, even for the Tories, if that looked like a proper risk. Most likely would be if there was a polling miss - Ref not looking like they can win and then an exit poll surprise :open_mouth:

    *this never happens :disappointed:
  • Nigelb said:

    Next manifesto to be titled "Greed is Good*"

    *Except at lunchtime.
    "A spectre is haunting Europe—the spectre of wet sandwiches"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Fishing said:

    I'm afraid you simply don't understand what the EU does or how it negotiates. Nothing with the EU is low-hanging fruit. I have spent too many years of my career trying to make headway in Brussels.

    Anything we want, they will oppose, simply because they regard it as cherry-picking. Doesn't matter if it's perfectly reasonable or marginally beneficial to them or even if they proposed it in the first place. And they will demand huge and unacceptable concessions simply because they think they have the upper hand.

    The only way to get results from the EU, as Margaret Thatcher showed with the rebate, is to be even more determined, single-minded and inflexible than they are. Then maybe you'll get a fraction of what you want.

    Even the Americans, who are by no means a pushover, are more rational and easier to deal with than the EU. They may be excruciatingly legalistic and utterly insular and ignorant of foreign countries, but at least they don't constantly shift their ground and aren't quite as insecure about their rationale for existence.
    I think that one area to watch is how Mr Starmer handles the end of the UK-EU transitional post-Brexit fishing arrangements. It was claimed as a big Brexit win, and the French fought a bureaucratic, regulatory war with much impact on their politics. I generally agree that negotiating with the EU requires the ability take a strong stance, and have the ability to back it up in practice.

    The arrangements are coming to an end in 2026, and with France in several varieties of chaos it will be tempting for Mons. Macron to use it as a lever to please nationalists, blaming the UK.

    Brexit promises were that it would help out fishing industry by recovering autonomy. The Govt will have control over quotas in UK waters, and pressure from other countries imo will be around tit for tat negotiations to maintain access.

    I have no idea how this will go, or how other areas of improving co-operation may have an impact.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MaxPB said:

    No that doesn't compare at all. All of the eyewitnesses say the man in question was threatening to kill people on that train. The person who subdued the would be murderer saved many lives that day. That it went to court is ridiculous but at least the correct verdict was reached.
    A jury clearly formed of people who ride the Subway in New York, and come across many such total lunatics on a regular basis.

    Also another case where the media was very selective about what was reported during the trial, trying to build towards a narrative that the acquittal was somehow unreasonable or that race was a factor - when it was a pretty straightforward case of self defence and the ‘victim’ was alive when police and medics arrived.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    edited December 2024
    Selebian said:

    Farage as PM? I just can't see it. Mind you, I couldn't see Trump ever getting re-elected. My faith in US voters was misplaced and cost me money - does the same apply to my faith in UK voters?

    While proper fragmentation, Con/ref and Lab losing votes to Greens, tankies-light and Lib Dems* could see Ref winning on sub-30, I still think there would be a concerted tactical voting operation, even for the Tories, if that looked like a proper risk. Most likely would be if there was a polling miss - Ref not looking like they can win and then an exit poll surprise :open_mouth:

    *this never happens :disappointed:

    Trump as next president was always a possibility, the mechanics and stuff that needs to happen for Nige to be next PM are just a lot tougher. The rise of Reform can still happen and he won't be the next PM (Lab leader change, Reform most votes/inefficient seat allocation, Labour having more allies in parliament when push and shove come, Reform most seats & not enough Tory votes for Farage to be PM)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222



    Farage was born in the same year as Keanu Reeves. I suspect Keanu has rather better health.
    Which of them took the red pill, which the blue?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,869

    Oh Badenoch, that interview is accidental Parridge.

    Is "Parridge" a cross between "Partridge" and "Farridge"?
  • Roger said:

    It's a Tory rite-of-passage to show that you don't like immigrants.

    Bizarre but true.
    Why then was Starmer condemning the immigration figures at PMQs vowing to reduce both legal and illegal immigration, if it is just a Tory rite of passage ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,994
    Taz said:

    I have only been to McDonalds twice in the last 30 years, once of which was on a business trip in Slovakia, so feel unable to offer a view on them. Sadly.
    I will 4 u. It's poor quality food and lacking in taste. If you want a Burger, go to Burger King imho.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    She's right about Love Actually, if nothing else.
    I can watch Notting Hill time after time, but found Love Actually cloyingly horrible.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    I still think the chances of just a smaller Labour majority are underpriced.
    I think fixing odds about the next GE - July 2029 at the latest - is about as transparent a process as trying to price the 2029 Derby. Ditto next PM.

    The thought that between them Farage and Badenoch have an even money chance of being next PM (27% + 22% chances) is risible.

    Just do a simple exercise: there are two big prospects of the next PM being Labour - Starmer is replaced before the next election; Starmer wins the next election but doesn't carry on for 5 years. The % chance of the next PM being Labour is high.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    As opposed to Boris's manifesto, Greek is Good.
    But water is best.

    ἄριστον μὲν ὕδωρ
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Selebian said:

    Farage as PM? I just can't see it. Mind you, I couldn't see Trump ever getting re-elected. My faith in US voters was misplaced and cost me money - does the same apply to my faith in UK voters?

    While proper fragmentation, Con/ref and Lab losing votes to Greens, tankies-light and Lib Dems* could see Ref winning on sub-30, I still think there would be a concerted tactical voting operation, even for the Tories, if that looked like a proper risk. Most likely would be if there was a polling miss - Ref not looking like they can win and then an exit poll surprise :open_mouth:

    *this never happens :disappointed:

    The problem is the combination of Nothing Can Be Done and the doctrine of Pure Popular Sovereignty.

    In the later, politicians preach that the People are always right and pander to them on a range of things. Democracy is all.

    Then, suddenly, with certain things - No, you can’t. Immigration is a Must. Protecting the water companies is a Must. Not building infrastructure is a Must. Enquiries into scandals never lead anywhere etc etc

    So along come Trump or Reform and say “We will bulldoze our way forward. We will build the trains on time, and to a price.”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image

    The EU needs to bag Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in the transfer window...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    edited December 2024

    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings

    .........a haematologist a vascular surgeon and a cardiologist,

    And these multi millionaire farmers want to know why they have to pay tax
  • Nigelb said:

    Our propaganda will now be FAIR and ACCURATE.

    https://thehill.com/media/5036312-trump-kari-lake-director-voice-of-america/
    President-elect Trump announced he is tapping Kari Lake, a former news anchor and staunch Trump supporter, to head the government-funded news outlet Voice of America.
    “I am pleased to announce that Kari Lake will serve as our next Director of the Voice of America,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday night.
    Lake will “ensure that the American values of Freedom and Liberty are broadcast around the World FAIRLY and ACCURATELY, unlike the lies spread by the Fake News Media,” Trump added...

    Does Trump believe in the traditional American values of Freedom and Liberty? The contrast between Reagan's shining city upon a hill and Trump's build the wall is as clear as that between Reagan's muscular defence of Western values (with exceptions) and Trump's isolationism.

    One minute of RR:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/akCDcwTHFVo

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I can watch Notting Hill time after time, but found Love Actually cloyingly horrible.
    Yup, I can sit through Notting Hill when my wife inevitably watches it every other year, bit I can't make it through Love Actually at all. It's just awful.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    Scott_xP said:

    Unless you're the King President
    England had a Civil War over that. The King lost.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612

    It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image

    Remarkable!
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    Told you Badenoch had faulty judgment and is out of touch with the British public.

    But [Badenoch] is also inspired by fiction and is a fan of Game of Thrones. Asked if she identifies with Daenerys Targaryen, known as the Mother of Dragons, she said: “I strongly associated with Daenerys, yes.” She added that the character — a queen who demands unswerving loyalty, can walk through fire and has a penchant for immolating her enemies — is “much misunderstood”.

    She is less keen on another cult favourite, however: the Christmas film Love Actually.

    “There’s actually quite a lot of dark undertones to Love Actually,” she told the magazine. “There is a British prime minister who’s messing around and is not doing the foreign policy properly, people are cheating … there is a lot going on there if you move away from the smiley, happy, cheesy stuff.”

    Instead, she enjoys Die Hard, which she describes as “a good Christmas-adjacent movie”. She added: “My favourite Christmas movie is probably a tie between Gremlins and Scrooged. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past is a close third. So I do like the Scrooge theme.“


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-interview-tory-party-news-m6kxgwvhc

    Although not an Xmas movie, the best Xmas movie segment, bar none, is All through the House from "Tales from the Crypt" where Joan Collins has a less than pleasant encounter with Santa.

    Brill on Bluray.
  • It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image

    Russia still doing better than Germany and about as well as Britain?
  • Roger said:


    .........a haematologist a vascular surgeon and a cardiologist,

    And these multi millionaire farmers want to know why they have to pay tax
    They saved my life and you try to make it political

    Not your best moment
  • I can watch Notting Hill time after time, but found Love Actually cloyingly horrible.
    Yes I love Notting Hill but hate Love Actually.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    England had a Civil War over that. The King lost.
    Yes, a Stuart king lost, but as our king is a direct descendent of a Stuart king (James I) it wasn't quite over then, and isn't now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    MaxPB said:

    Yup, I can sit through Notting Hill when my wife inevitably watches it every other year, bit I can't make it through Love Actually at all. It's just awful.
    Of course, the difference might just be that Notting Hill has the wonderful portrayal of Spike by Rhys Ifans...
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    MaxPB said:

    Yup, I can sit through Notting Hill when my wife inevitably watches it every other year, bit I can't make it through Love Actually at all. It's just awful.
    We all have different views on many issues here but on Love Actually we seem to be, as a group, unified in our views on it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    They saved my life and you try to make it political

    Not your best moment
    To be fair that's a low bar too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image

    Monthly inflation down to 2.6% as well and still dropping. By 2027 the annual rate could dip below 10% with a very fast growing economy. Argentina could very quickly become South America's powerhouse after decades of being a basket case.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612
    I really enjoyed love actually the first 3 or 4 times, but agree that now it feels a bit... cliche and ick at the same time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    rkrkrk said:

    Remarkable!
    Not really. Given how insane the Argentine economy was, even a vague connection with reality would be a massive improvement.

    There were (and are) Argentine economic refugees in Peru…
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image

    Bloomberg expects them to work, after they've caused transitional damage.

    2025 hasn't happened yet, so we don't know if the forecast is accurate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Bloomberg expects them to work, after they've caused transitional damage.

    2025 hasn't happened yet, so we don't know if the forecast is accurate.
    The monthly data shows it's already working which is what the 2025 forecast is based on.
  • Murder is not justifiable. Doesn’t matter who the victim is.

    Agreed and I was astonished anyone thought it was
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Russia still doing better than Germany and about as well as Britain?
    Russia is doing worse than anyone, they might as well have had a pandemic given the 3% contraction in GDP over the past year. Wonder what’s going on there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    The EU needs to bag Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in the transfer window...
    And Sharia law too presumably?
  • Of course, the difference might just be that Notting Hill has the wonderful portrayal of Spike by Rhys Ifans...
    I think Spike (a classic Curtis 'comedy' working class person) is the most annoying thing about Notting Hill.
    The best thing about it? The chemistry between the two leads. I could watch Julia Roberts in anything, though. Without wanting to go full Leon, she is a very beautiful woman.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited December 2024
    MaxPB said:

    Monthly inflation down to 2.6% as well and still dropping. By 2027 the annual rate could dip below 10% with a very fast growing economy. Argentina could very quickly become South America's powerhouse after decades of being a basket case.
    There’s lots of American Republican fans of Millei on Twitter, obviously hoping to do something similar there next year. He was on Lex Fridman’s podcast the other week as well?

    Meanwhile, what’s happening next door in Brazil. Doesn’t look too good there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Russia still doing better than Germany and about as well as Britain?
    Russia has a major drop in the rate of growth despite an unsustainable public sector deficit currently funded by large but now exhausted currency reserves and massive defence spending which should be boosting the economy (short term). One of the worst performers in the world compared to the previous year. At some point in 2025 it is going to hit the buffers, hard.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Sandpit said:

    There’s lots of American Republican fans of Millei on Twitter, obviously hoping to do something similar there next year. He was on Lex Fridman’s podcast the other week as well.

    Meanwhile, what’s happening next door in Brazil. Doesn’t look too good there.
    Brazil is doing a more traditional South America lefty semi-chavista policy. A lot like what Labour are doing here, targeting businesses and wealth creators.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    MaxPB said:

    The monthly data shows it's already working which is what the 2025 forecast is based on.
    That's interesting to hear, but, still, there have been previous examples of early impetus being lost in this sort of scenario.

    Lots of our debate is based on forecasts (I'm a bit guilty of that too, with the budget), and not enough on actual performance.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
  • DavidL said:

    Russia has a major drop in the rate of growth despite an unsustainable public sector deficit currently funded by large but now exhausted currency reserves and massive defence spending which should be boosting the economy (short term). One of the worst performers in the world compared to the previous year. At some point in 2025 it is going to hit the buffers, hard.
    Both Russia and Ukraine have huge problems racing towards them, Russia on the economy, and Ukraine militarily/manpower wise. I'd say it's a question of who can cling on the longest but Trump's quick deal idea may mean that's not the case.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    MaxPB said:

    Brazil is doing a more traditional South America lefty semi-chavista policy. A lot like what Labour are doing here, targeting businesses and wealth creators.
    Presumably using the same mantra "to make them pay their fair share"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited December 2024

    It looks like Milei’s reforms are working.

    image

    Though his big tax and regulation cuts to boost growth are also accompanied by massive spending and welfare cuts too
  • Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Best not tell'em how you feel about any payrises.
This discussion has been closed.