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Farage remains the favourite to be the next PM – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,471

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    ABC News

    One million Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war

    https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1867179247221064026?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Seems extraordinarily unlikely.
    Defenders don't take higher casualties than attackers, without some huge technological advantage on the part of the latter.
    The Russians are attacking with soldiers riding electric scooters, so I think we can rule out a huge technological advantage for Russia.
    I suppose the shambolic clutter left behind will prevent a counter attack.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    ABC News

    One million Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war

    https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1867179247221064026?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Seems extraordinarily unlikely.
    It does seem unlikely, I agree. I reckon Ukrainian losses are horrendous - in the 100,000s - but 1 million?! Very hard to believe

    There’s an allegation that the ABC video is fake, I’ll go down the rabbit hole…

    EDIT: the narrator’s voice alters pitch, a tad, at a crucial moment
    That account is posting an endless stream of garbage which you are reposting without even a second of critical thought about before doing so.
    Except that I spotted that it was a fake, myself
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378
    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    I would be bored out of my mind. I used to work in IT and earned well and hated it: every day was a waste of time. But now I work in stats and every day is a learning opportunity: I'm getting smarter each day and my output has my name on it. It's not perfect: it's contract and not well paid, so health issues are compounding. But damn, they are going to have to drag me out of the place

    (I hate the train commuting, tho... )
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Sir Keir Starmer offering his condolences to UNRWA chief Lazzarini over the death of his staff in Gaza. I wonder if that includes the Hamas operatives?

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1866961009766015017
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Taz said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    I am with you on that. There is nothing big ticket I really want to buy either. I pretty much have what I want. We will go on holiday when I finish to Fuerteventura and a Cruise for our ten year anniversary in September. Aside from that I don't have any large spending plans aside from, possibly, an electric bike.

    I plan to declutter the garage and loft, sell tat on vinted. Make cheese, chutnies, james and preserves. Work on my home made wines, work on the garage and watch the BBC Shakespeare DVD's as well as volunteer locally and look for a 12 hour a week job.

    I will also cycle more.
    My big hope for my retirement is that I’ll finally be able to travel
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Just for Big_G

    Over 8,000 caught breaking 20mph limit on one road
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gx7ygn73yo
    A quarter of motorists committing 20mph speed offences have been caught on just two roads in Wales, figures reveal.
    Enforcement along the A4102 Swansea Road at Gellideg, Merthyr Tydfil - which links the A465 Heads of the Valleys road and the A470 - has caught more than 8,000 drivers in 10 months.
    Freedom of information requests from BBC Wales show not far behind are nearly 7,200 motorists caught exceeding the 20mph limit on the A5104 at Pontybodkin near Penyffordd in Flintshire...

    ...There's confusion when I first arrive at the co-ordinates I have for the speed camera which has caught 8,000 drivers this year - there's no sign of it.
    It's only when I ask a dog walker that we find out the camera mysteriously came down about three weeks ago, with a sports shop bag and some tape covering up the end of the pole.
    No-one knows for sure what happened, but the suspicions of everyone I speak to is that it was sabotage. The camera and the pole that was attached to it, was lying on its side next to the road for a couple of weeks, before that too disappeared.
    There's general shock that the camera has caught that many drivers.
    But with a lack of regular 20mph signs and many using it as a major diversion for the Heads of the Valleys dual carriageway which runs parallel with the road, maybe it's no surprise that people are being caught...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    Nigelb said:

    Just for Big_G

    Over 8,000 caught breaking 20mph limit on one road
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gx7ygn73yo
    A quarter of motorists committing 20mph speed offences have been caught on just two roads in Wales, figures reveal.
    Enforcement along the A4102 Swansea Road at Gellideg, Merthyr Tydfil - which links the A465 Heads of the Valleys road and the A470 - has caught more than 8,000 drivers in 10 months.
    Freedom of information requests from BBC Wales show not far behind are nearly 7,200 motorists caught exceeding the 20mph limit on the A5104 at Pontybodkin near Penyffordd in Flintshire...

    ...There's confusion when I first arrive at the co-ordinates I have for the speed camera which has caught 8,000 drivers this year - there's no sign of it.
    It's only when I ask a dog walker that we find out the camera mysteriously came down about three weeks ago, with a sports shop bag and some tape covering up the end of the pole.
    No-one knows for sure what happened, but the suspicions of everyone I speak to is that it was sabotage. The camera and the pole that was attached to it, was lying on its side next to the road for a couple of weeks, before that too disappeared.
    There's general shock that the camera has caught that many drivers.
    But with a lack of regular 20mph signs and many using it as a major diversion for the Heads of the Valleys dual carriageway which runs parallel with the road, maybe it's no surprise that people are being caught...

    Lack of signage is clear grounds for appeal I would have thought.

    Most appeals succeed on technicalities related to signage, or certainly used to be the case.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    MaxPB said:

    .

    Sean_F said:

    FPT - very disturbing conversation last night. Murder

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT - very disturbing conversation last night. Murder is never an answer to justice, under any circumstances.

    If we go down that road we will get a free for all and there will be someone who finds some reason to gun for you too. Literally.

    "I would give the devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake."

    Woke and/or virtue signalling.
    A fundamental principle of law stretching back, ooh, about 800 years at least.

    People can vent and emote, I get that, but the problem with social media is that it can, and does, cross over into real action.
    Kill one rich guy on the streets of Manhattan and the law swings rapidly into action and tracks you down within days.

    Kill tens of thousands by perpetrating medical insurance fraud across America and you are lauded for increasing profits.

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Perhaps someone should have read that quote about the benefit of the law to the CEO. He certainly seemed to think he could enjoy the law's protection without sticking to it.
    I'm absolutely astonished at what you're saying. Shocked.

    Deeply worrying.
    Fraudsters don't attract much sympathy, when their victims strike back at them.
    I have a problem with regulars excusing murder.
    Nobody is excusing it, just that there's little to no sympathy for him.
    I am excusing it. And celebrating it. More of this type of thing, please.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,032
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    Sean_F said:

    FPT - very disturbing conversation last night. Murder

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT - very disturbing conversation last night. Murder is never an answer to justice, under any circumstances.

    If we go down that road we will get a free for all and there will be someone who finds some reason to gun for you too. Literally.

    "I would give the devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake."

    Woke and/or virtue signalling.
    A fundamental principle of law stretching back, ooh, about 800 years at least.

    People can vent and emote, I get that, but the problem with social media is that it can, and does, cross over into real action.
    Kill one rich guy on the streets of Manhattan and the law swings rapidly into action and tracks you down within days.

    Kill tens of thousands by perpetrating medical insurance fraud across America and you are lauded for increasing profits.

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Perhaps someone should have read that quote about the benefit of the law to the CEO. He certainly seemed to think he could enjoy the law's protection without sticking to it.
    I'm absolutely astonished at what you're saying. Shocked.

    Deeply worrying.
    Fraudsters don't attract much sympathy, when their victims strike back at them.
    I have a problem with regulars excusing murder.
    Nobody is excusing it, just that there's little to no sympathy for him.
    I am excusing it. And celebrating it. More of this type of thing, please.

    Well there's always and exception.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    There was a bit of a fad for analysing happiness in the Noughties, cumulating in Cameron telling the ONS to do a happiness index. The secret is stability and a gently rising salary/quality of life. Give people freedom from crime and the elements, a well-maintained house and a salary increase of say 10%pa, and they'll be very happy indeed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.
  • https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    Sir Keir Starmer fans please...oh wait.
  • I recall Corbyn being a lot more visible in the 2015 equivalent of now...although probably not for good reasons.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    F1: summary of the year from a betting perspective:
    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2024/12/f1-2024-season-betting-review.html

    Fairly long so if you just want the highlights scroll to the first graph and there's a concise summary of how the numbers stack up for the three parts of the season, plus the overall results.

    Also, I've renamed the blog so it's rather more on-topic.
  • F1: summary of the year from a betting perspective:
    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2024/12/f1-2024-season-betting-review.html

    Fairly long so if you just want the highlights scroll to the first graph and there's a concise summary of how the numbers stack up for the three parts of the season, plus the overall results.

    Also, I've renamed the blog so it's rather more on-topic.

    You managed to find the quote button the other day, I would just like to say a genuine, well done.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
  • Nigelb said:

    Just for Big_G

    Over 8,000 caught breaking 20mph limit on one road
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gx7ygn73yo
    A quarter of motorists committing 20mph speed offences have been caught on just two roads in Wales, figures reveal.
    Enforcement along the A4102 Swansea Road at Gellideg, Merthyr Tydfil - which links the A465 Heads of the Valleys road and the A470 - has caught more than 8,000 drivers in 10 months.
    Freedom of information requests from BBC Wales show not far behind are nearly 7,200 motorists caught exceeding the 20mph limit on the A5104 at Pontybodkin near Penyffordd in Flintshire...

    ...There's confusion when I first arrive at the co-ordinates I have for the speed camera which has caught 8,000 drivers this year - there's no sign of it.
    It's only when I ask a dog walker that we find out the camera mysteriously came down about three weeks ago, with a sports shop bag and some tape covering up the end of the pole.
    No-one knows for sure what happened, but the suspicions of everyone I speak to is that it was sabotage. The camera and the pole that was attached to it, was lying on its side next to the road for a couple of weeks, before that too disappeared.
    There's general shock that the camera has caught that many drivers.
    But with a lack of regular 20mph signs and many using it as a major diversion for the Heads of the Valleys dual carriageway which runs parallel with the road, maybe it's no surprise that people are being caught...

    I would just say that if the area is signposted correctly and you drove over 25mph then you run the risk of a fine.

    Of course many roads are under review as is this one and it should be resolved to most interests in the next few months

    20mph zones have their place, but not everywhere where it was arbitrarily implemented and to be fair to the Welsh government they have recognised this and are taking remedial action
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945

    F1: summary of the year from a betting perspective:
    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2024/12/f1-2024-season-betting-review.html

    Fairly long so if you just want the highlights scroll to the first graph and there's a concise summary of how the numbers stack up for the three parts of the season, plus the overall results.

    Also, I've renamed the blog so it's rather more on-topic.

    You managed to find the quote button the other day, I would just like to say a genuine, well done.
    Me, use the quote button? Sounds like fake news.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    I am with you on that. There is nothing big ticket I really want to buy either. I pretty much have what I want. We will go on holiday when I finish to Fuerteventura and a Cruise for our ten year anniversary in September. Aside from that I don't have any large spending plans aside from, possibly, an electric bike.

    I plan to declutter the garage and loft, sell tat on vinted. Make cheese, chutnies, james and preserves. Work on my home made wines, work on the garage and watch the BBC Shakespeare DVD's as well as volunteer locally and look for a 12 hour a week job.

    I will also cycle more.
    My big hope for my retirement is that I’ll finally be able to travel
    Not if you get a cat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    There was a bit of a fad for analysing happiness in the Noughties, cumulating in Cameron telling the ONS to do a happiness index. The secret is stability and a gently rising salary/quality of life. Give people freedom from crime and the elements, a well-maintained house and a salary increase of say 10%pa, and they'll be very happy indeed.
    Which would account for Britons being the second most miserable people on earth

    1. The country and world is unstable
    2. Salaries haven’t meaningfully risen since 2008
    3. A lot of people think quality of life has declined
    4. Crime *feels like* it’s rising - even if stats say differently
    5. The elements? Look outside
    6. British houses are probably the pokiest in the
    OECD
    7. Salaries, see above

    All of which says: Nigel Farage has a real chance
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Badenoch says she doesn’t like being “lumped in” with her “ethnic enemies” from the north of Nigeria because she is a Yoruba.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1867195526204027391
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    There was a bit of a fad for analysing happiness in the Noughties, cumulating in Cameron telling the ONS to do a happiness index. The secret is stability and a gently rising salary/quality of life. Give people freedom from crime and the elements, a well-maintained house and a salary increase of say 10%pa, and they'll be very happy indeed.
    Which would account for Britons being the second most miserable people on earth

    1. The country and world is unstable
    2. Salaries haven’t meaningfully risen since 2008
    3. A lot of people think quality of life has declined
    4. Crime *feels like* it’s rising - even if stats say differently
    5. The elements? Look outside
    6. British houses are probably the pokiest in the
    OECD
    7. Salaries, see above

    All of which says: Nigel Farage has a real chance
    All of which says Farage can't change any of those fundmentals.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    So Brexit was a complete and utter failure in terms of the policy which tipped the balance. In the opinion of the majority of those who voted for it.
    Even the dead enders who back Reform are wavering, with two out of five also accepting the idea of freedom of movement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/majority-of-brexit-voters-would-accept-free-movement-to-access-single-market-uk-eu
    ..Perhaps the most striking finding was that 54% of Britons who voted leave, including 59% of voters in “red wall seats”, said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens to travel, live and work across borders.

    This could be because the surge in net migration to the UK after 2016 meant that Brexit was no longer seen by its supporters as the answer on immigration, the report suggested.

    Among all UK voters, 68% of respondents would now back free movement in exchange for single market access, with 19% opposed and majority support among supporters of every party apart from Reform UK (44% of whose voters also backed the idea)...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    Sir Keir Starmer fans please...oh wait.
    Twenty six whole percentage points! Oooh, it's Xmas!

    (sorry, but it's weird how politics has changed that we are treating a Government rating of 26% as good news and the Conservatives are in third place on their fourth female leader)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378

    Badenoch says she doesn’t like being “lumped in” with her “ethnic enemies” from the north of Nigeria because she is a Yoruba.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1867195526204027391

    Hole, digging. Ever with her pulse on the nation, that one... :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    Badenoch says she doesn’t like being “lumped in” with her “ethnic enemies” from the north of Nigeria because she is a Yoruba.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1867195526204027391

    A matter of great debate on the high streets of England, I'm sure.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Nigelb said:

    So Brexit was a complete and utter failure in terms of the policy which tipped the balance. In the opinion of the majority of those who voted for it.
    Even the dead enders who back Reform are wavering, with two out of five also accepting the idea of freedom of movement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/majority-of-brexit-voters-would-accept-free-movement-to-access-single-market-uk-eu
    ..Perhaps the most striking finding was that 54% of Britons who voted leave, including 59% of voters in “red wall seats”, said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens to travel, live and work across borders.

    This could be because the surge in net migration to the UK after 2016 meant that Brexit was no longer seen by its supporters as the answer on immigration, the report suggested.

    Among all UK voters, 68% of respondents would now back free movement in exchange for single market access, with 19% opposed and majority support among supporters of every party apart from Reform UK (44% of whose voters also backed the idea)...

    Ironically, reciprocal free movement without single market membership or political integration might be the compromise that pleases the most people.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    Nigelb said:

    So Brexit was a complete and utter failure in terms of the policy which tipped the balance. In the opinion of the majority of those who voted for it.
    Even the dead enders who back Reform are wavering, with two out of five also accepting the idea of freedom of movement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/majority-of-brexit-voters-would-accept-free-movement-to-access-single-market-uk-eu
    ..Perhaps the most striking finding was that 54% of Britons who voted leave, including 59% of voters in “red wall seats”, said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens to travel, live and work across borders.

    This could be because the surge in net migration to the UK after 2016 meant that Brexit was no longer seen by its supporters as the answer on immigration, the report suggested.

    Among all UK voters, 68% of respondents would now back free movement in exchange for single market access, with 19% opposed and majority support among supporters of every party apart from Reform UK (44% of whose voters also backed the idea)...

    Ironically, reciprocal free movement without single market membership or political integration might be the compromise that pleases the most people.
    If that reciprocal free movement was, mutually, "no recourse to public funds for first ten years", fewer would have been against it before.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    edited December 12
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    ABC News

    One million Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war

    https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1867179247221064026?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Seems extraordinarily unlikely.
    With modern battlefield intervention wouldn't that imply maybe 6 million injured or something? Even in WW1 the ratio was 1 dead and 3 injured.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    Here’s a pretty good analysis which supports your thesis. True figure nearer 100,000?

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/is-zelensky-undercounting-ukraines-death-toll/

    I dunno. To me it feels even grimmer than that. I think of a provincial city like Chernivtsi, where I stayed a week

    All the fighting age men - there weren’t many - had crew cuts. Soldiers. Back home on leave, or nursing injuries

    It will end like Korea. As explained here:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-ukraine-heading-towards-a-korean-style-demilitarised-zone/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Imagine my surprise at learning that the Online Safety Act is why OpenAI has blocked Sora in the UK, putting us in the same impoverished position as the European Union.
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1866906702081298717
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Had a nice sandwich for lunch...

    When I went to pay for the ingredients the card payment system was down so I had to use CASH !!!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    I think this might be my favourite ever example of "Scotch expert" on PB.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    This is the highest vote share that Reform has ever recorded in a poll, and the highest that it, or any of its predecessors have recorded, since a YouGov put the Brexit Party on 26% on 9-10 June 2019 (one of three vote shares of 26 they recorded, all of which had them in first place, and which are their joint-highest-ever GE opinion poll shares).

    The last time they were within 1% of the lead (or higher) was 2-3 July 2019 (also YG).

    The 23% Con share is their lowest since 2-3 Oct (Techne).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    And in this society we over-emphasise wealth compared to more important things in life.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    edited December 12

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    ABC News

    One million Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war

    https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1867179247221064026?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Seems extraordinarily unlikely.
    With modern battlefield intervention wouldn't that imply maybe 6 million injured or something? Even in WW1 the ratio was 1 dead and 3 injured.
    ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012

    Nigelb said:

    So Brexit was a complete and utter failure in terms of the policy which tipped the balance. In the opinion of the majority of those who voted for it.
    Even the dead enders who back Reform are wavering, with two out of five also accepting the idea of freedom of movement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/majority-of-brexit-voters-would-accept-free-movement-to-access-single-market-uk-eu
    ..Perhaps the most striking finding was that 54% of Britons who voted leave, including 59% of voters in “red wall seats”, said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens to travel, live and work across borders.

    This could be because the surge in net migration to the UK after 2016 meant that Brexit was no longer seen by its supporters as the answer on immigration, the report suggested.

    Among all UK voters, 68% of respondents would now back free movement in exchange for single market access, with 19% opposed and majority support among supporters of every party apart from Reform UK (44% of whose voters also backed the idea)...

    Ironically, reciprocal free movement without single market membership or political integration might be the compromise that pleases the most people.
    It is also something that the EU was crystal clear was not available at the time of Brexit because it made leaving too attractive. Have they changed their minds?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    Eabhal said:

    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    I think this might be my favourite ever example of "Scotch expert" on PB.
    You have to remember that some of us come from places such as Norfolk.

    Given that the risk factor of unrelated: cousin marriage is about 1:2 and that only a small minority of marriages yield deleterious effects anyway, the maths don't stack up either.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378
    Nigelb said:

    Imagine my surprise at learning that the Online Safety Act is why OpenAI has blocked Sora in the UK, putting us in the same impoverished position as the European Union.
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1866906702081298717

    This is one of the reasons why I'm quite annoyed that the Online Safety Act was not widely discussed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    In nearly twenty years as a journalist, this was one of the most extraordinary moments I have witnessed.
    https://x.com/clarissaward/status/1866987136429531591

    And he's just one of tens of thousands.
    And one of the luckier ones.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    We need to reframe the political debate. It's not that people are looking for something radical (i.e Reform), it's that people have been offered something radical on immigration and they don't like it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    The Americans lost 58,000 killed, in Vietnam, over a much longer period.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    I think this might be my favourite ever example of "Scotch expert" on PB.
    You have to remember that some of us come from places such as Norfolk.

    Given that the risk factor of unrelated: cousin marriage is about 1:2 and that only a small minority of marriages yield deleterious effects anyway, the maths don't stack up either.
    You could make an argument for Uist/Orkney/Shetland perhaps.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    This is the highest vote share that Reform has ever recorded in a poll, and the highest that it, or any of its predecessors have recorded, since a YouGov put the Brexit Party on 26% on 9-10 June 2019 (one of three vote shares of 26 they recorded, all of which had them in first place, and which are their joint-highest-ever GE opinion poll shares).

    The last time they were within 1% of the lead (or higher) was 2-3 July 2019 (also YG).

    The 23% Con share is their lowest since 2-3 Oct (Techne).
    It's no longer a purely Brexit party, if it's now even one at all, though.
    It more of a Poujadist/MAGA mashup these days.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Nigelb said:

    In nearly twenty years as a journalist, this was one of the most extraordinary moments I have witnessed.
    https://x.com/clarissaward/status/1866987136429531591

    And he's just one of tens of thousands.
    And one of the luckier ones.

    An awful lot of people are saying that is fake

    🤷🏼‍♂️
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    edited December 12
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    So Brexit was a complete and utter failure in terms of the policy which tipped the balance. In the opinion of the majority of those who voted for it.
    Even the dead enders who back Reform are wavering, with two out of five also accepting the idea of freedom of movement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/majority-of-brexit-voters-would-accept-free-movement-to-access-single-market-uk-eu
    ..Perhaps the most striking finding was that 54% of Britons who voted leave, including 59% of voters in “red wall seats”, said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens to travel, live and work across borders.

    This could be because the surge in net migration to the UK after 2016 meant that Brexit was no longer seen by its supporters as the answer on immigration, the report suggested.

    Among all UK voters, 68% of respondents would now back free movement in exchange for single market access, with 19% opposed and majority support among supporters of every party apart from Reform UK (44% of whose voters also backed the idea)...

    Ironically, reciprocal free movement without single market membership or political integration might be the compromise that pleases the most people.
    It is also something that the EU was crystal clear was not available at the time of Brexit because it made leaving too attractive. Have they changed their minds?
    I don't think that's true. When they said "no cherry-picking" they meant the reverse - single market membership without free movement. We didn't ask for it the other way round, but as long as it's reciprocal I think it would be negociable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Scott_xP said:

    Had a nice sandwich for lunch...

    When I went to pay for the ingredients the card payment system was down so I had to use CASH !!!

    If you'd had no cash, you would have gone hungry.

    Let that be a lesson to all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine my surprise at learning that the Online Safety Act is why OpenAI has blocked Sora in the UK, putting us in the same impoverished position as the European Union.
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1866906702081298717

    This is one of the reasons why I'm quite annoyed that the Online Safety Act was not widely discussed.
    I love the point that the "economic growth it will enable is purely from the growth in employment of those advising how to deal with the new regulations.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    I've written an editorial on this (aka new thread starter) over at Buildhub, here:

    https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/41805-new-nppf-changes-to-england-planning-policy/

    This is the meat I have not posted here:

    My tentative assessments (just from the speech) on what may impact self-builders are:

    - Much increased pressure on councils to pass local plans, and have them in place quickly. Transitional arrangements for a few months.
    - The pre-Election NIMBY-pandering done by the last Government is being summarily reversed. Good.
    - Planning Committees powers to micro-manage individual application will be reducing. PP will be tipping towards determination by Planning Officers.
    - Building on grey or brown belt to become more straight forward, ie on scrubby bits of the Green Belt. Likely to be a slow-burn - 6 months not next week.
    - If a development follows planning principles and does not walk the edges of what is acceptable, chances of getting it through straightforwardly are better than before.
    - Heavy circumscribing of use of "viability assessments" by developers, which is a tool used to control the planning process. Not really relevant to self-builders, but interesting.

    But these are major changes, so take time to do the homework. There are a few webinars being announced.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 92

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT - very disturbing conversation last night. Murder is never an answer to justice, under any circumstances.

    If we go down that road we will get a free for all and there will be someone who finds some reason to gun for you too. Literally.

    "I would give the devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake."

    Woke and/or virtue signalling.
    A fundamental principle of law stretching back, ooh, about 800 years at least.

    People can vent and emote, I get that, but the problem with social media is that it can, and does, cross over into real action.
    Kill one rich guy on the streets of Manhattan and the law swings rapidly into action and tracks you down within days.

    Kill tens of thousands by perpetrating medical insurance fraud across America and you are lauded for increasing profits.

    If the law isn't working for people then they won't respect it. If the law isn't for everyone then it's for no-one.

    Perhaps someone should have read that quote about the benefit of the law to the CEO. He certainly seemed to think he could enjoy the law's protection without sticking to it.
    So many people on here who know none of the details of the insurance claims 100% sure that all the refusals were a fraud perpetrated on the claimants.

    I mean, they may have been but how do people know or be as certain as they claim to be in order to justify murder?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    The Americans lost 58,000 killed, in Vietnam, over a much longer period.
    About 40,000 US deaths were in three years, 67-69. Not so very different.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    edited December 12
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    I think this might be my favourite ever example of "Scotch expert" on PB.
    You have to remember that some of us come from places such as Norfolk.

    Given that the risk factor of unrelated: cousin marriage is about 1:2 and that only a small minority of marriages yield deleterious effects anyway, the maths don't stack up either.
    You could make an argument for Uist/Orkney/Shetland perhaps.
    I thought cousin marriaghe was banned in the Northern Isles until the C20? And see this

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/marriage-between-cousins-not-to-blame-for-high-rate-of-ms-1660866

    I'd actually wonder about the opposite - given how widely travelled the Islanders were/are - sailors, fisherwomen (herring gutting), in more recent years going to eg Glasgow or Aberdeen for professional training, and so on.

    Edit: and plenty of incomers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited December 12

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    The Americans lost 58,000 killed, in Vietnam, over a much longer period.
    I thought of that comparison. But then the USA in Vietnam had vastly superior weapons, compared to the enemy, and vastly superior medicine. And the US army mainly did precise surgical strikes - they let heavy bombing do the grunt work

    Most of all, Ukraine has been INVADED by a brutal and merciless enemy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    edited December 12
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    The Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is 200k dead and 600k wounded.

    It’s highly unlikely the Ukranian casualties are any worse than half that of the invaders.

    A suggestion of a million is likely out by an order of magnitude.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,122
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    The Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is 200k dead and 600k wounded.

    It’s highly unlikely the Ukranian casualties are any worse than half that of the invaders.

    A suggestion of a million is likely out by an order of magnitude.
    At least.

    I think the Ukrainian number is pretty credible. It still the horrific result of an immoral and illegal attack by Russia against a peaceful neighbour, but also a testament to the brave and brilliant defence that Ukraine has been able to make against their enemies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    The Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is 200k dead and 600k wounded.

    It’s highly unlikely the Ukranian casualties are any worse than half that of the invaders.

    A suggestion of a million is likely out by an order of magnitude.
    I provided the first fake news - “1m dead” - then I proved it was fake. It’s fake

    The interesting thing is that it’s not particularly good. The voice is off. I’ve no idea why because voice-cloning tech is now basically perfect. Suggests it’s some kid in a basement not Putin’s Top Bots
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,471
    dixiedean said:

    It's a rare day I stand four square with @Casino_Royale.
    We shouldn't be excusing summary justice because the victim was deserving.
    That's the slipperiest of slopes.

    Absolutely - agree with you and Casino.
    You can't have lynch mobs supporting an individual lyncher in any civilised country. The politics of it are irrelevant.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    Sir Keir Starmer fans please...oh wait.
    Why do I fear that we’ll be starved of endless pages of breathless overanalysis on this poll? Just a hunch I have.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    This is the highest vote share that Reform has ever recorded in a poll, and the highest that it, or any of its predecessors have recorded, since a YouGov put the Brexit Party on 26% on 9-10 June 2019 (one of three vote shares of 26 they recorded, all of which had them in first place, and which are their joint-highest-ever GE opinion poll shares).

    The last time they were within 1% of the lead (or higher) was 2-3 July 2019 (also YG).

    The 23% Con share is their lowest since 2-3 Oct (Techne).
    It's no longer a purely Brexit party, if it's now even one at all, though.
    It more of a Poujadist/MAGA mashup these days.
    Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Frosch..
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    This is the highest vote share that Reform has ever recorded in a poll, and the highest that it, or any of its predecessors have recorded, since a YouGov put the Brexit Party on 26% on 9-10 June 2019 (one of three vote shares of 26 they recorded, all of which had them in first place, and which are their joint-highest-ever GE opinion poll shares).

    The last time they were within 1% of the lead (or higher) was 2-3 July 2019 (also YG).

    The 23% Con share is their lowest since 2-3 Oct (Techne).
    It's no longer a purely Brexit party, if it's now even one at all, though.
    It more of a Poujadist/MAGA mashup these days.
    As with all parties, policies and priorities evolve. But Reform clearly is still a Brexit Party, and in terms of continuity, is literally the Brexit Party rebranded.

    FWIW, my timeline of the movement would be:

    UKIP 0.0: AFL 1991-93
    UKIP 1.0: UKIP 1993-2018
    Hiatus: 2018-19
    UKIP 2.0: Brexit Party 2019-21
    UKIP 2.1: Reform UK 2021-present
  • Trump wins Time person of the year. !!!!!
  • carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    In Scotland? My own suspicion is that we are medicalising normal human variation (perhaps with noble intention).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,033
    MattW said:

    Apparently big changes to housing today. But let’s see, they always say that.

    Yes.

    IMO they need to hit the vested interests which are blocks (eg speculative private land banking), in a way that aligns Local Political interests with development following the legal principles. In a way which is enforcible.

    My checklist of what is required:

    1 Local Councillors to be focussed on long term direction / strategy / local plans, not micro-management of individual applications.
    2 Individual applications to be determined by Planning Professionals following law, not Planning Committees following parish pump politics. This should also remove some conflicts of interest / opportunity for corruption, though not all.
    3 Housing targets to be mandatory, and obsessed objectively.
    4 Possibilities for robust intervention if local Councillors sit on their hands.
    5 Planning Gain to be capped in some effective way.
    6 Encouragement / facilitation for local councils to be more proactive in Compulsory Purchase, potentially involving the opportunity to intervene on sustainable (in planning terms) development sites.
    7 Possibility is streamlining enforcement.
    8 All of the above will require capacity building.
    1. They should already be. If they get head down in individual applications too much (other than scrutinising the largest ones to make sure the developers are complying with their requirements (ie a 4250 house one that juts into my patch where the developers pissed around with the waterways/flood element and got their knuckles correctly rapped), or in large developments on their patch (50-100 house size ones), they'll do a lot of pointless exercise.
    2. They already are. 90% of applications here never see a Planning Committee; they're dealt with by the officers. Even the ones called in get a strong recommendation from the relevant officer and if you overrule it, you'd better be solid on your reasons. Any rejection that's not completely sound will get overturned on appeal and you'll get costs against you. I'd imagine some councils have councillors doing this, but that only defers rather than stops a development and gets expensive.
    3. "Objectively" is a difficult thing to define. They're shifting all the time; we've had three different targets in my six years alone with a fourth one coming along. In what way are they objective, rather than a number that the Government decides it wants to decree? In any case, they can't be enforced unless they give the councils the ability to do building themselves - there are plenty of developments near me where we gave permission years ago and all that's happened is someone dug a trench and sold on the rights. And they got sold on again. And again.
    4. What does that mean? If local Councillors do nothing, the permission gets issued, anyway.
    5. Would be good, but it's a great ambition, and everyone has said they want it, but it never materialises.
    6. Yes, please, with funding to allow it
    7. Absolutely; toothless enforcement and developers getting away with anything really pisses off the locals and acts as a recruiting sergeant for NIMBYs
    8. Definitely
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    The Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is 200k dead and 600k wounded.

    It’s highly unlikely the Ukranian casualties are any worse than half that of the invaders.

    A suggestion of a million is likely out by an order of magnitude.
    At least.

    I think the Ukrainian number is pretty credible. It still the horrific result of an immoral and illegal attack by Russia against a peaceful neighbour, but also a testament to the brave and brilliant defence that Ukraine has been able to make against their enemies.
    You honestly think Ukraine has only lost 43,000
    men? Implying 120,000 wounded?

    This authoritative table suggests you are wrong



  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,122

    Scott_xP said:

    Had a nice sandwich for lunch...

    When I went to pay for the ingredients the card payment system was down so I had to use CASH !!!

    If you'd had no cash, you would have gone hungry.

    Let that be a lesson to all.
    But not the lesson that you think.

    Cash in coins is obsolete. Cash in notes is mostly obsolete.

    If you do not have a robust infrastructure that supports e-payments in every circumstance then you are a third world country saddling yourselves with the much higher costs of maintaining the obsolete cash option and making yourself into an increasingly pathetic theme park doomed to decline yet further.

    The past is done. It is time for Britain to not merely embrace the future but to shape it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945

    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    In Scotland? My own suspicion is that we are medicalising normal human variation (perhaps with noble intention).
    My JohnL, pathologising personality quirks was a recognised thing decades ago. And if a school gets more funding and a student gets more exam time...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    edited December 12
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    That's a good definition but I'm not sure it always applies. Happiness is a slippery concept. Eg I was happy in 1978. I remember quite clearly that I was. Why? Probably just because I was 18. Whole life ahead of me bla bla. Yet by the following year I wasn't and 19 isn't exactly ancient. Still, for whatever reason happiness and I parted company in 79 and it took almost two decades for me to find it again.

    1997 was when the gloom finally lifted. Just as I was beginning to think it never would, it did and this time it lasted. A sustained period of mental ease and bodily comfort all the way till 2010. Thirteen years. Not bad. Not bad at all. Of course it ended but I was prepared this time. I didn't get too down about being unhappy again because I knew it was only temporary. Sure enough, this summer, the sun appeared once more.
  • Trump on Sky just now

    There is going to be a massive increase in oil and gas production and lower bills
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Cicero said:

    Cash in coins is obsolete. Cash in notes is mostly obsolete.

    I have had to use coins and notes more in the last month than I have all year
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378

    carnforth said:

    Decades of under-diagnosis, or overdiagnosis now, or smartphones are the devil. Who knows? Scotland:



    What do we do when it reaches 50%? Start deducting funding for each child who doesn't need it rather than adding funding for each who does?

    While this can only be a partial explanation, the custom of some to marry cousins is having an effect. Do it over a couple of generations and the genetic similarity between cousins is akin to that of siblings.
    In Scotland? My own suspicion is that we are medicalising normal human variation (perhaps with noble intention).
    In the future, everybody will be ill for fifteen minutes...

    Douglas Adams's concept of "recreational illness" springs to mind...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,122
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    The Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is 200k dead and 600k wounded.

    It’s highly unlikely the Ukranian casualties are any worse than half that of the invaders.

    A suggestion of a million is likely out by an order of magnitude.
    At least.

    I think the Ukrainian number is pretty credible. It still the horrific result of an immoral and illegal attack by Russia against a peaceful neighbour, but also a testament to the brave and brilliant defence that Ukraine has been able to make against their enemies.
    You honestly think Ukraine has only lost 43,000
    men? Implying 120,000 wounded?

    This authoritative table suggests you are wrong



    Quoting yourself as an authority? :-)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378
    edited December 12
    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    Trump on Sky just now

    There is going to be a massive increase in oil and gas production and lower bills

    For the USA maybe..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Trump wins Time person of the year. !!!!!

    Who else could they have possibly given it to? By some distance the most talked-about person of the year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    viewcode said:
    Sandwiches are a "Great British institution"? I can't quite hear that dogwhistle...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Trump wins Time person of the year. !!!!!

    Well I suppose he is.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Trump on Sky just now

    There is going to be a massive increase in oil and gas production and lower bills

    For the USA maybe..
    Yes but it is going to upset a lot of people who demand an end to fossil fuels
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    viewcode said:

    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?

    Jeez. Badenoch has achieved the impossible. She’s made Starmer appear human and approachable
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited December 12
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    That's a good definition but I'm not sure it always applies. Happiness is a slippery concept. Eg I was happy in 1978. I remember quite clearly that I was. Why? Probably just because I was 18. Whole life ahead of me bla bla. Yet by the following year I wasn't and 19 isn't exactly ancient. Still, for whatever reason happiness and I parted company in 79 and it took almost two decades for me to find it again.

    1997 was when the gloom finally lifted. Just as I was beginning to think it never would, it did and this time it lasted. A sustained period of mental ease and bodily comfort all the way till 2010. Thirteen years. Not bad. Not bad at all. Of course it ended but I was prepared this time. I didn't get too down about being unhappy again because I knew it was only temporary. Sure enough, this summer, the sun appeared once more.
    That’s tough. Years of depression and gloom?

    I get the blue meanies but for weeks - or maybe a few months at most - not years

    Sympathies
  • Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?

    Jeez. Badenoch has achieved the impossible. She’s made Starmer appear human and approachable
    One day we may have grown ups running the country but I won't hold my breath
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?

    Jeez. Badenoch has achieved the impossible. She’s made Starmer appear human and approachable
    One day we may have grown ups running the country but I won't hold my breath
    I don't see anything childish about a tuna sandwich for lunch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Besides the dodgy source a bit of simple reasoning would prompt the question that if Ukraine has 1 million dead soldiers, and presumably 3-4 million wounded, why the hell is Putin not in Kyiv?

    Precisely because Ukraine is fighting for every inch?

    Having been to war-torn Ukraine twice, and seen the devastation - and the lack of fighting age men on the streets - and all the men on crutches - I am sure their true casualty figures are horrific

    The official toll is ridiculous. I read somewhere that Zelensky recently claimed 43,000 dead. After 2.5 years of brutal and total war against Russia? Including a horribly costly and ineffective counter
    attack?

    Multiply it by 3 or 4 maybe
    No, that's pretty unlikely.

    Double, perhaps - and the numbers for wounded are probably three times the number of killed.
    Ukraine has decent protection (both armoured vehicles and body armour) and vastly better combat medicine and motivation than the Russians (who on occasion just shoot their own wounded).
    The Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is 200k dead and 600k wounded.

    It’s highly unlikely the Ukranian casualties are any worse than half that of the invaders.

    A suggestion of a million is likely out by an order of magnitude.
    At least.

    I think the Ukrainian number is pretty credible. It still the horrific result of an immoral and illegal attack by Russia against a peaceful neighbour, but also a testament to the brave and brilliant defence that Ukraine has been able to make against their enemies.
    You honestly think Ukraine has only lost 43,000
    men? Implying 120,000 wounded?

    This authoritative table suggests you are wrong



    Quoting yourself as an authority? :-)
    It's a load of balls anyway, without checking the source.

    The killed/wounded ratio for Ukr vs Ru is extremely unlikely given the disparities in equipment, battlefield medicine and tactics.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    That's a good definition but I'm not sure it always applies. Happiness is a slippery concept. Eg I was happy in 1978. I remember quite clearly that I was. Why? Probably just because I was 18. Whole life ahead of me bla bla. Yet by the following year I wasn't and 19 isn't exactly ancient. Still, for whatever reason happiness and I parted company in 79 and it took almost two decades for me to find it again.

    1997 was when the gloom finally lifted. Just as I was beginning to think it never would, it did and this time it lasted. A sustained period of mental ease and bodily comfort all the way till 2010. Thirteen years. Not bad. Not bad at all. Of course it ended but I was prepared this time. I didn't get too down about being unhappy again because I knew it was only temporary. Sure enough, this summer, the sun appeared once more.
    That’s tough. Years of depression and gloom?

    I get the blue meanies but for weeks - or maybe a few months at most - not years

    Sympathies
    I thought that at first. But check the dates. It's a mild political joke.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,420

    I fully expect Reform to take the lead in some polls in the new year.

    On Farage becoming PM. Yes he absolutely can. I don’t think I’d put him as favourite. But it’s certainly a plausible outcome at the next GE.

    Without any judgement or criticism, I do think that the centrist, consensus groupthink can form an opinion that it just can’t happen, he is too extreme, too marmite, too fringe, elections are won from the centre, yadda yadda. But our party system is breaking down, and people are more fluid in their voting patterns, and people do not feel listened to by their politicians. The backlash against Labour is a symptom of this - they are viewed as more of the same, not agents of change.

    Labour are banking on things improving to an extent that they’ll be given another go. The Tories are banking on the fact that if Labour are unpopular they will be the repository of the anti-Labour vote as the second party. Neither of these assumptions, in my view, are safe ones to make.

    The other point to make is that the media landscape has changed, and people are much more commonly digesting things that reflect their own prejudices. This poses a challenge for Labour, because even if NHS waiting times come down, even if immigration ticks down, even if more houses are built, if people don’t feel better or don’t believe things are improving, they won’t give Labour their vote. Statistics and meeting targets aren’t necessarily going to win them an election.

    I absolutely think it can happen, but I don't think it's a 1 in 3.7 chance that Farage will be the next PM.

    If people don't want it to happen, then I think they need to tie Farage to Trump as much as possible, and Farage-Trump as being opposed to the UK national interest.
  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?

    Jeez. Badenoch has achieved the impossible. She’s made Starmer appear human and approachable
    One day we may have grown ups running the country but I won't hold my breath
    I don't see anything childish about a tuna sandwich for lunch.
    You would think our politicians had more important issues
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    That's a good definition but I'm not sure it always applies. Happiness is a slippery concept. Eg I was happy in 1978. I remember quite clearly that I was. Why? Probably just because I was 18. Whole life ahead of me bla bla. Yet by the following year I wasn't and 19 isn't exactly ancient. Still, for whatever reason happiness and I parted company in 79 and it took almost two decades for me to find it again.

    1997 was when the gloom finally lifted. Just as I was beginning to think it never would, it did and this time it lasted. A sustained period of mental ease and bodily comfort all the way till 2010. Thirteen years. Not bad. Not bad at all. Of course it ended but I was prepared this time. I didn't get too down about being unhappy again because I knew it was only temporary. Sure enough, this summer, the sun appeared once more.
    That’s tough. Years of depression and gloom?

    I get the blue meanies but for weeks - or maybe a few months at most - not years

    Sympathies
    I thought that at first. But check the dates. It's a mild political joke.
    Ah. Clever

    This may be a rare if not unique occasion where my natural kindness overwhelmed my good sense
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?

    Jeez. Badenoch has achieved the impossible. She’s made Starmer appear human and approachable
    One day we may have grown ups running the country but I won't hold my breath
    I don't see anything childish about a tuna sandwich for lunch.
    You would think our politicians had more important issues
    He's having to respond to a Conservative politician who started it.
  • I am sorry but what was Kemi thinking lol
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857

    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1867192264818061616

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB:: 26% (+3)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    CON: 23% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (=)
    GRN: 9% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, On 11th December,
    Changes w/ 4th December.

    Lab/Con 49%
    SPLORG 51%
    Occasional crossover continues.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    I fully expect Reform to take the lead in some polls in the new year.

    On Farage becoming PM. Yes he absolutely can. I don’t think I’d put him as favourite. But it’s certainly a plausible outcome at the next GE.

    Without any judgement or criticism, I do think that the centrist, consensus groupthink can form an opinion that it just can’t happen, he is too extreme, too marmite, too fringe, elections are won from the centre, yadda yadda. But our party system is breaking down, and people are more fluid in their voting patterns, and people do not feel listened to by their politicians. The backlash against Labour is a symptom of this - they are viewed as more of the same, not agents of change.

    Labour are banking on things improving to an extent that they’ll be given another go. The Tories are banking on the fact that if Labour are unpopular they will be the repository of the anti-Labour vote as the second party. Neither of these assumptions, in my view, are safe ones to make.

    The other point to make is that the media landscape has changed, and people are much more commonly digesting things that reflect their own prejudices. This poses a challenge for Labour, because even if NHS waiting times come down, even if immigration ticks down, even if more houses are built, if people don’t feel better or don’t believe things are improving, they won’t give Labour their vote. Statistics and meeting targets aren’t necessarily going to win them an election.

    I absolutely think it can happen, but I don't think it's a 1 in 3.7 chance that Farage will be the next PM.

    If people don't want it to happen, then I think they need to tie Farage to Trump as much as possible, and Farage-Trump as being opposed to the UK national interest.
    I think the Trump win is a big factor in the short price. I'm tempted to sell. Finger hovering.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,897
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Meanwhile, our Maximum Leader speaks

    Keir Starmer's spokesman says the PM was "surprised" to hear Kemi Badenoch condemn sandwiches and say she "has a steak brought in for lunch" instead.

    Says Starmer "is quite happy with the sandwich lunch," which he describes as a "Great British institution"

    Says he likes a "tuna sandwich or toasty"


    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3ld4bkzmdxc2f

    What did we do to deserve this?

    Jeez. Badenoch has achieved the impossible. She’s made Starmer appear human and approachable
    Not sure I'd want to approach someone halfway through a tuna sandwich.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to bite on this one. He might end up PM one day but probably not the next one.

    He'll be a bit old by the one after, by UK political standards... He's already 60.
    ...and might have the liver of an 80 year old.
    My liver is in excellent condition according to my GP who requires blood tests every quarter due to my need to take blood thinners

    Mind you I rarely drink !!!!
    Long may it stay so!

    Unlike you, Farage is not a healthy man and will, I suspect, age a lot in the next five years. He already looks a lot older than he is.
    Fortunately my cardiologist provided me with a pacemaker in February having told me the day after Christmas last year that my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker to save my life

    Since then I remain under a haematologist, vascular surgeon, and my cardiologist, all of whom are performing valiantly to keep me going though at times its a struggle

    Anyway I am so grateful for all my blessings
    Indeed, good luck to you. Sadly a member of our congregation had a heart attack at the weekend and on a life support machine and unlikely to survive, she was a lovely lady and wife and mother and only in her early fifties so you never know what is around the corner
    Yes, enjoy your life, what is left of it, as you do not know what is around the corner. That is why I am due to retire imminently.
    I've been thinking about this a lot in the context of my daughter's young friend who died of methanol poisoning in Laos. You don't know what is coming and should live for today. Planning for the future is wise but don't let it get in the way of living.
    This is why I think the FIRE movement miss the point. You're exactly right.

    You need a balance. I am glad when I was putting money aside for my pensions/savings I still spent money doing things I enjoyed well I was younger too.

    As for work, why do it if you don't have to. On no ones tombstone does it say, unironically, I wish I had spent more time in the Office.
    The thing is that I am in the lucky position of liking my work. It gives me purpose and focus. I am content to keep doing it as long as they'll have me and my health holds.
    Enjoying your job is a great position to be in. I used to enjoy mine as well but over the years the level of corporate micro management has increased and it has become less enjoyable.

    I would certainly be interested in part time if the job was more enjoyable.

    I hope, for you, your health holds and you keep enjoying it.
    I can't really imagine enjoying my job that much.
    I was having the inevitable 'lottery' conversation with the football parents (following the postcode lottery win in Wythenshawe). "What would you buy?" I was asked. I can't think of anything I'd want to buy, so I just offered "I'd stop working." This was greeted with amazement by the dinner lady, the gas fitter, the shop worker... These people all want money for stuff, but like their jobs sufficiently that even with sufficient resources not to have to do these jobs, they'd carry on doing them. My job OTOH falls into that sweet spot of not too stressful/quite interesting/colleagues are quite pleasant - but if I didn't need a job there are hundreds of other things I would rather do with my time. Even anchored to my home town by the needs of my children, I'd be out walking, or cycling, or down the pub; I'd be spending more time with my kids, or with my parents; I'd be able to volunteer to do all those hundreds of small jobs a community needs doing; I;'d be able to start to tackle the backlog of Things That Need Doing Around The House; I'd be gardening, doing crosswords, jigsaws; I'd be calling amiably by friends' houses. I'd be able to look after my health. I'd read books, watch films. I'd join Lancashire CCC. I can't imagine how a job could be better than doing all that.
    What you want first is to react slowly.

    Back in the 1980s my dad had two employees, and the long-term one won the pools to the tune of several hundred k.

    The same day he said "I'm offski" and walked out, then bought the big house, and moved in.

    The disruption to his lifestyle /routine / social networks was enough that it caused problems for him, being classic working class.
    Yes - the key to happiness is the expectation that next year should be a bit better than this. If you do it all at once, you diminish your chance for happiness in years 2 onwards.
    That's a good definition but I'm not sure it always applies. Happiness is a slippery concept. Eg I was happy in 1978. I remember quite clearly that I was. Why? Probably just because I was 18. Whole life ahead of me bla bla. Yet by the following year I wasn't and 19 isn't exactly ancient. Still, for whatever reason happiness and I parted company in 79 and it took almost two decades for me to find it again.

    1997 was when the gloom finally lifted. Just as I was beginning to think it never would, it did and this time it lasted. A sustained period of mental ease and bodily comfort all the way till 2010. Thirteen years. Not bad. Not bad at all. Of course it ended but I was prepared this time. I didn't get too down about being unhappy again because I knew it was only temporary. Sure enough, this summer, the sun appeared once more.
    That’s tough. Years of depression and gloom?

    I get the blue meanies but for weeks - or maybe a few months at most - not years

    Sympathies
    I thought that at first. But check the dates. It's a mild political joke.
    Ah. Clever

    This may be a rare if not unique occasion where my natural kindness overwhelmed my good sense
    No, nice reply. I appreciated it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    I fully expect Reform to take the lead in some polls in the new year.

    On Farage becoming PM. Yes he absolutely can. I don’t think I’d put him as favourite. But it’s certainly a plausible outcome at the next GE.

    Without any judgement or criticism, I do think that the centrist, consensus groupthink can form an opinion that it just can’t happen, he is too extreme, too marmite, too fringe, elections are won from the centre, yadda yadda. But our party system is breaking down, and people are more fluid in their voting patterns, and people do not feel listened to by their politicians. The backlash against Labour is a symptom of this - they are viewed as more of the same, not agents of change.

    Labour are banking on things improving to an extent that they’ll be given another go. The Tories are banking on the fact that if Labour are unpopular they will be the repository of the anti-Labour vote as the second party. Neither of these assumptions, in my view, are safe ones to make.

    The other point to make is that the media landscape has changed, and people are much more commonly digesting things that reflect their own prejudices. This poses a challenge for Labour, because even if NHS waiting times come down, even if immigration ticks down, even if more houses are built, if people don’t feel better or don’t believe things are improving, they won’t give Labour their vote. Statistics and meeting targets aren’t necessarily going to win them an election.

    I absolutely think it can happen, but I don't think it's a 1 in 3.7 chance that Farage will be the next PM.

    If people don't want it to happen, then I think they need to tie Farage to Trump as much as possible, and Farage-Trump as being opposed to the UK national interest.
    Counterfactual - what now would be the state of play had Rishi hung on, pushing around the paper clips to see if anything turned up ?
This discussion has been closed.