Basically, most big law firms structure themselves as LLPs.
One piece of analysis [possibly from Private Eye] suggests that the Inland Revenue loses £138,000 on every £1m of profit they make. From the “magic circle” of City law firms – Linklaters, Allen & Overy, Freshfields and Clifford Chance (excluding Slaughter and May, which follow the traditional partnership model) – that would amount to an extra £4bn a year. That’s £4bn from just four sets of lawyers. To put that in context, VAT on school fees is predicted to raise £1.7bn a year.
That can’t be right.
He is saying - I think - that the structure of the LLP means that these 4 law firms are reducing their tax bills by £4bn.
Which implies they are making profits of £29bn - I don’t believe that. (At 13.8%)
Their total revenues were £8.4in 2024 (Links 2.1; A&O 2.2; FBD £1.8; CC 2.3). I can believe that they paid out £4bn in partners profits. Which would mean that the lost tax is in the region of £500m.
On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.
I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
Not sure Badenoch is quite the right candidate to go fishing for LD and centrist Labour votes. Davey is a more conservative leader and overall safer bet.
Davey is anything but conservative. He's a socialist in a yellow suit with a flying bird on it.
Not at all.
For example the LDs oppose the abolition of AR on farms and imposition of VAT on private schools.
Davey certainly wasn't a Socialist when in government either.
It will be tough to expand the number of LD seats at the next GE, as there will surely be some dead cat bounce for the Tories, but it isn't impossible. There is not a lot of love out there for either of the big two parties. We may well be in one of those decades where the tectonic plates of party politics shift.
I suggest you read the interviews with him on his background and political philosophy, which was so left-wing the interviewer even asked him why he didn't join the Labour Party then - to which he gave some weakish answer about how he didn't like its tradition.
He's a Lefty through and through.
Don't confuse political opportunism for where his real sympathies lie, and he'd be delighted to prop up a Labour administration that fell short next time.
One of the interesting curiosities of modern politics is that Conservatives don’t look or act conservative. It’s all topsy turvey
On the contrary they seem determined to trash the country rather than conserve it.
It's to do now, with party loyalty running vertically through classes, rather than horizontally, across them.
People are still used to the idea of upper middle class people being overwhelmingly Conservative, and working class people being mainly Labour (with a substantial Conservative minority).
When in reality, the Conservatives have very little in common now, with much of the Establishment, and Labour have very little in common now, with broad swathes of working class Britain.
And, the same is true of the US, France, and other rich world democracies. Quite often now, the most solidly left-leaning constituencies are the most well-heeled.
It's fascinating to consider why that's the case.
Luxury beliefs of the university educated, especially women. They have to distinguish themselves from the hoi poloi who have always had small-c conservative views. Used to be done by owning a Jaguar, etc.
Luxury beliefs come a lot cheaper than luxury living or even traditional middle class living in southern England.
I wonder how much resentment there is among many recent graduates that they're not going to get the lifestyle they expected, that their parents had or what many of their age group who didn't go to university now has.
There's a lot of resentment around. Saw a Mumsnet post from a 40-something who had worked their way up to an income of £75k, and feels their standard of living doesn't match up to their parents who had a similar inflation-adjusted salary.
We could argue about why that is (housing?) and what to do about it, but people aren't happy and the spectacular Tory defeat was not the cathartic experience the country was looking for.
No there's a lot of buyer's remorse among the £50-70k class to voted Labour for the first time in ages or stayed home. They now realise Labour are going to destroy their jobs and tax them into poverty.
It's been a very steep learning curve for those voters and I expect out of the 2m who stayed home or switched Labour we can get 90% of them back and grab 1.5m from reform on the right. That becomes an election winning coalition in 2029 against what I think will be a deeply unpopular Labour government.
A lot of the £50-£70k class underestimate to a significant degree exactly how far up the pile they are.
Live in London or South East and tell me it's far up the pile.
Most people get that Max but it isn’t particularly relevant when it’s your party that is protecting the interests of those with the housing wealth and those who start sentences with “well in my day I only earned £6k a year”.
In my day I only earned £450 per year but that is a longtime ago [1962] !!!!
That salary is worth about £8,000 in today's money - but house prices were only £40,000 on average, compared with about £260,000 now.
In housing cost terms, you were earning about £55,000 in '24 prices.
This is my photo quota for the day. Politically on topic as the guy in the photograph is a Local Councillor in Lancashire. Martyn Hurt https://bsky.app/profile/martynhurt.bsky.social/post/3lbjj4ssz3s2j This is a barrier near me that the County Council seems to think is fine. I can't independently get through it, even with the power assist as I need to control speed and direction with my arms. I've just started researching how to take action to get it removed. More explanations on the thread. He's trying to work across party on this.
This is a link to Google Maps which shows that - subject to details I may have missed - that anti-wheelchair barrier means that an able bodied person can walk 50m down the path, whilst a wheelchair user who can't get through has to go 3/4 of a mile around the roads. I have several in positions like that here, at least one of which goes back to pre-1970.
Apologies for two barrier photos in a few days, but the new Bluesky feed means I may be buried in these .
What is even the purpose of these barriers?
The usual reason claimed is control of ASBO motorcyclists (sometimes cyclists too, though that is a different debate), and there are often folk-beliefs that it is effective, based sometimes on police advice that was given when somewhere was built in 198x or 199x and has been preserved in memory of the subsequent residents.
It's also a cheap intervention, where local voters said "something must be done" and something can now be seen to have been done.
It gets pernicious because if there was never a problem (as is the case in most places), the existence of these becomes the folk-narrative as to why there is now no problem, and so many will fight to defend them. It's not unknown for a case to be made along the lines of "this cost to you is an acceptable compromise for us to make to protect the wellbeing of the whole community."
Arguments made around PSPOs are similar.
A modern approach would be to combine AI and bounding, directional land mines. You’d need someone to tidy away the remains of the scramble bikers, but nothing is for free.
OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.
If the banks (as they do) have to cover the entire cost it creates no incentive for customers to be careful
I think that's an excellent idea.
The only issue I can see is people not complaining about smaller frauds due to the "excess", like a scratch on your car. So you'll get thousands of £99 frauds, or fraudsters testing out methods unnoticed before going for the big one.
Another one: to be rather frank, a large proportion of people who fall for these kind of frauds are not financially literate, and sometimes barely literate at all. This correlates with not having much cash. Apparently 1/3 of UK adults have savings of less than £1,000 - £100 to them would be a big, big hit.
The stories that hit the headlines are the pensioner who loses £20,000. But the kind of person who loses that much is likely to be rather rich anyway, possibly through a mortgage-free home.
Your hatred of pensioners is shining bright
Not as bright as your hatred of everything Malcolm
Is it noticeable since the election, the benches in the HoC swapped round, a mood shift on PB? It’s PB lefties now aggressively defensive and tetchy? The PB right joyously swinging swords, like yeoman cavalry at a riot. 😆
Unfortunate timing...I imagine Keith Lard's report was interesting.
A west London nightclub could lose its licence after a gun battle erupted at the exact moment a health and safety officer was visiting to investigate crime and disorder claims.
JKRowling is not anti-trans. She is anti trans extremists who are harming the trans cause
She believes that men cannot become women under any circumstances and makes a point of referring them as men. The case study is India Willoughby, who has a gender recognition certificate and a surgically constructed vagina, having had her penis and testicles destroyed in the construction process. JKR insistently calls her a man. Whatever the threshold is for being anti-trans is, I think JKR has crossed it.
XY chromosomes = man.
Even someone with complete androgen insensitivity syndrome, who has spent their entire life believing themselves to be a woman and everyone around them believing them to be a woman?
Yes, look at what happened in the boxing this summer at the Olympics. We had two men beating up women.
There is no clear evidence that Imane Khelif or Lin Yu-ting has XY chromosomes or any sort of androgen insensitivity syndrome.
If Khelif does have raised levels of testosterone giving her an advantage at boxing, then she doesn’t have complete androgen insensitivity syndrome.
I would find it odd to tell someone who is anatomically female and lived their whole life believing themselves to be female that they are a man.
On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.
I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
Not sure Badenoch is quite the right candidate to go fishing for LD and centrist Labour votes. Davey is a more conservative leader and overall safer bet.
Davey is anything but conservative. He's a socialist in a yellow suit with a flying bird on it.
Not at all.
For example the LDs oppose the abolition of AR on farms and imposition of VAT on private schools.
Davey certainly wasn't a Socialist when in government either.
It will be tough to expand the number of LD seats at the next GE, as there will surely be some dead cat bounce for the Tories, but it isn't impossible. There is not a lot of love out there for either of the big two parties. We may well be in one of those decades where the tectonic plates of party politics shift.
I suggest you read the interviews with him on his background and political philosophy, which was so left-wing the interviewer even asked him why he didn't join the Labour Party then - to which he gave some weakish answer about how he didn't like its tradition.
He's a Lefty through and through.
Don't confuse political opportunism for where his real sympathies lie, and he'd be delighted to prop up a Labour administration that fell short next time.
One of the interesting curiosities of modern politics is that Conservatives don’t look or act conservative. It’s all topsy turvey
On the contrary they seem determined to trash the country rather than conserve it.
It's to do now, with party loyalty running vertically through classes, rather than horizontally, across them.
People are still used to the idea of upper middle class people being overwhelmingly Conservative, and working class people being mainly Labour (with a substantial Conservative minority).
When in reality, the Conservatives have very little in common now, with much of the Establishment, and Labour have very little in common now, with broad swathes of working class Britain.
And, the same is true of the US, France, and other rich world democracies. Quite often now, the most solidly left-leaning constituencies are the most well-heeled.
It's fascinating to consider why that's the case.
Luxury beliefs of the university educated, especially women. They have to distinguish themselves from the hoi poloi who have always had small-c conservative views. Used to be done by owning a Jaguar, etc.
Luxury beliefs come a lot cheaper than luxury living or even traditional middle class living in southern England.
I wonder how much resentment there is among many recent graduates that they're not going to get the lifestyle they expected, that their parents had or what many of their age group who didn't go to university now has.
There's a lot of resentment around. Saw a Mumsnet post from a 40-something who had worked their way up to an income of £75k, and feels their standard of living doesn't match up to their parents who had a similar inflation-adjusted salary.
We could argue about why that is (housing?) and what to do about it, but people aren't happy and the spectacular Tory defeat was not the cathartic experience the country was looking for.
No there's a lot of buyer's remorse among the £50-70k class to voted Labour for the first time in ages or stayed home. They now realise Labour are going to destroy their jobs and tax them into poverty.
It's been a very steep learning curve for those voters and I expect out of the 2m who stayed home or switched Labour we can get 90% of them back and grab 1.5m from reform on the right. That becomes an election winning coalition in 2029 against what I think will be a deeply unpopular Labour government.
A lot of the £50-£70k class underestimate to a significant degree exactly how far up the pile they are.
Live in London or South East and tell me it's far up the pile.
But that's the problem. How can it be that £50k is not enough, when it's 50% higher than the median salary? The NMW still applies for those stocking the shelves in central London.
There needs to be a national strategy to spread demand around more. Better transport links, council tax linked to home values, abolish stamp duty, nodal energy pricing.
In addition NHS workers live in London and the South East too and well as to this mythical and unquantified “productivity improvements” my girlfriend works 13+ hour shifts with no break, no lunch, barely time to drink water as a junior doctor in the NHS. No one in the middle class private sector would put up with that and I really challenge anyone to squeeze any more “productivity” out of her
I will confess to not really understanding what is argued about when politicians talk about productivity. Maybe I'm being thick but the terms of the debate don't make it immediately obvious to me what is being measured, and thus how big an issue it is.
It’s just another word for magic money tree. No doubt there are some productivity improvements that can be made in public sector organisations but until anyone can actually quantify them, using them to quantify what level of tax can be reduced on the rest of us is just nonsense.
In the case of the junior doctor, above, it is worth noting that productivity gains are not achieved by “working harder”, nearly ever.
They come from removing things for the job which as part of the job, but not needed.
The classic example was how the process of setting up a piece on a lathe, in a factory, went from a long, fiddly process (hours), to drop roughly in place and pull on this lever. This enabled the machinist to spend much more time machining than setting up.
This is my photo quota for the day. Politically on topic as the guy in the photograph is a Local Councillor in Lancashire. Martyn Hurt https://bsky.app/profile/martynhurt.bsky.social/post/3lbjj4ssz3s2j This is a barrier near me that the County Council seems to think is fine. I can't independently get through it, even with the power assist as I need to control speed and direction with my arms. I've just started researching how to take action to get it removed. More explanations on the thread. He's trying to work across party on this.
This is a link to Google Maps which shows that - subject to details I may have missed - that anti-wheelchair barrier means that an able bodied person can walk 50m down the path, whilst a wheelchair user who can't get through has to go 3/4 of a mile around the roads. I have several in positions like that here, at least one of which goes back to pre-1970.
Apologies for two barrier photos in a few days, but the new Bluesky feed means I may be buried in these .
It looks like there is space on either side of the barrier to make it 6-12 inches wider. Surely that would be a sensible fix - it might be a little tight but he would be able to get through it and whatever they are trying to block would still be blocked
This is my photo quota for the day. Politically on topic as the guy in the photograph is a Local Councillor in Lancashire. Martyn Hurt https://bsky.app/profile/martynhurt.bsky.social/post/3lbjj4ssz3s2j This is a barrier near me that the County Council seems to think is fine. I can't independently get through it, even with the power assist as I need to control speed and direction with my arms. I've just started researching how to take action to get it removed. More explanations on the thread. He's trying to work across party on this.
This is a link to Google Maps which shows that - subject to details I may have missed - that anti-wheelchair barrier means that an able bodied person can walk 50m down the path, whilst a wheelchair user who can't get through has to go 3/4 of a mile around the roads. I have several in positions like that here, at least one of which goes back to pre-1970.
Apologies for two barrier photos in a few days, but the new Bluesky feed means I may be buried in these .
What is even the purpose of these barriers?
Some are so useless they seem more like some attempt at an art installation, or as part of some research project around how hard it is to remove even useless pieces of urban architecture once they are in place, given the convoluted processes to remove the buggering things.
At Manor Fields Park in Sheffield, from Manor Park Crescent, they literally *are* an art installation. And the tactile paving design on this one is remarkable.
Anti-wheelchair A-Barrier in a cocktail dress as part of an "art" project. Doesn't matter - it still blocks mobility scooters and power wheelchairs, as is discriminatory under the Equality Act 2010. And it needs to come out to leave just an entrance. https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1687198688949735424
This is my photo quota for the day. Politically on topic as the guy in the photograph is a Local Councillor in Lancashire. Martyn Hurt https://bsky.app/profile/martynhurt.bsky.social/post/3lbjj4ssz3s2j This is a barrier near me that the County Council seems to think is fine. I can't independently get through it, even with the power assist as I need to control speed and direction with my arms. I've just started researching how to take action to get it removed. More explanations on the thread. He's trying to work across party on this.
This is a link to Google Maps which shows that - subject to details I may have missed - that anti-wheelchair barrier means that an able bodied person can walk 50m down the path, whilst a wheelchair user who can't get through has to go 3/4 of a mile around the roads. I have several in positions like that here, at least one of which goes back to pre-1970.
OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.
If the banks (as they do) have to cover the entire cost it creates no incentive for customers to be careful
I think that's an excellent idea.
The only issue I can see is people not complaining about smaller frauds due to the "excess", like a scratch on your car. So you'll get thousands of £99 frauds, or fraudsters testing out methods unnoticed before going for the big one.
Another one: to be rather frank, a large proportion of people who fall for these kind of frauds are not financially literate, and sometimes barely literate at all. This correlates with not having much cash. Apparently 1/3 of UK adults have savings of less than £1,000 - £100 to them would be a big, big hit.
The stories that hit the headlines are the pensioner who loses £20,000. But the kind of person who loses that much is likely to be rather rich anyway, possibly through a mortgage-free home.
Your hatred of pensioners is shining bright
I'm not going to apologise for expressing concern for people for whom a £100 fraud could put them out on the street. They would 0% back, while the pensioner would get 99.5%.
I don't have a depth of experience to contribute to the car debate, but I always thought the niche Jaguar shoukd exploit is to rip-off the expensive car designs (Aston Martin etc), make the interiors really luxurious, make them pretty, and pitch them at middle-management: kind of posh BMWs. "Grace, pace and space" as they used to say; the car equivalent of a good suit or posh frock depending on gender. The car you buy when you get promoted and want to distinguish yourself from where you came from.
Their coloured powder and pastel colours is more fitted for the arty types - there's a niche for that but not one Jaguar can easily fit. They should have created a spin-off company ("Jaguar Avant-Garde"?) for the experimental plinky-plinky, and used the existing brand to mine its current niche ("Jaguar Andor")
And their problem is the arty fashionista ads space in automotive is traditionally taken by cheap French marques like Citroen and Renault.
I have a power cut, the Queensferry Crossing is closed, the A9 looks like Hoth, Lothian Buses have cancelled all services, and I can't get these studded tyres onto my bike. Waste of £100.
Only in the poncy east , no issues in the west where men are men
Basically, most big law firms structure themselves as LLPs.
One piece of analysis [possibly from Private Eye] suggests that the Inland Revenue loses £138,000 on every £1m of profit they make. From the “magic circle” of City law firms – Linklaters, Allen & Overy, Freshfields and Clifford Chance (excluding Slaughter and May, which follow the traditional partnership model) – that would amount to an extra £4bn a year. That’s £4bn from just four sets of lawyers. To put that in context, VAT on school fees is predicted to raise £1.7bn a year.
That can’t be right.
He is saying - I think - that the structure of the LLP means that these 4 law firms are reducing their tax bills by £4bn.
Which implies they are making profits of £29bn - I don’t believe that. (At 13.8%)
Their total revenues were £8.4in 2024 (Links 2.1; A&O 2.2; FBD £1.8; CC 2.3). I can believe that they paid out £4bn in partners profits. Which would mean that the lost tax is in the region of £500m.
Still very significant, but…
I agree that your numbers are more realistic but why on earth do we have a tax system that once again results in different levels of tax being raised depending on the vehicle for your business? We need a massive simplification and homogenisation of taxes so that you pay the same tax on the same income whether you earn it, receive it in dividends, receive it in pensions, operate through a company, an LLP or a partnership or some other model such as a trust etc etc. These multiple distortions may work well for accountants but they damage our economy and encourage non productive efforts to play the system.
OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.
If the banks (as they do) have to cover the entire cost it creates no incentive for customers to be careful
I think that's an excellent idea.
The only issue I can see is people not complaining about smaller frauds due to the "excess", like a scratch on your car. So you'll get thousands of £99 frauds, or fraudsters testing out methods unnoticed before going for the big one.
Another one: to be rather frank, a large proportion of people who fall for these kind of frauds are not financially literate, and sometimes barely literate at all. This correlates with not having much cash. Apparently 1/3 of UK adults have savings of less than £1,000 - £100 to them would be a big, big hit.
The stories that hit the headlines are the pensioner who loses £20,000. But the kind of person who loses that much is likely to be rather rich anyway, possibly through a mortgage-free home.
Your hatred of pensioners is shining bright
Not as bright as your hatred of everything Malcolm
You obviously do not know me at all, pay attention young man, I love life.
If they were anti-gay views, would you say the same?
JKRowling is not anti-trans. She is anti trans extremists who are harming the trans cause. I think most trans people just want to live in peace.
It is analogous to Extinction Rebellion and concern about the damaging effects of climate change. You can support action to address climate change without supporting Extinction Rebellion.
Where would you place Rowling's deliberate misgendering of India Willoughby on the "not anti trans" scale? Calling her a "fantasising male".
It's one thing to say "I don't think trans women should be competing in men's sports" (reasonable) or "people who haven't fully transitioned shouldn't be able to use gendered facilities until further into their transition" (up for debate).
But to continually refer to a completely transitioned woman as "he", 24 years after they transitioned?
Rowling isn't transphobic? DOUBT.
There is a litany of evidence that suggests she thinks all trans women are "men".
She is an extremist and an absolutist, just as there are trans extremists on the other side who think all you have to do is say you're female and you magically become one overnight*, when in fact transition is a medical process that takes years.
*Edit to point out how funny it is that trans men are always ignored in this debate.
To my mind an extremist on this issue is someone who threatens violence or expresses hatred. Neither of which I have seen from Rowling. Could she be kinder or more generous? That's a reasonable debate.
I think someone can probably be an extremist without going that far. But is refusal to modulate a position at all itself extremist? Perhaps to some extent, but then many people on both sides will be extremist, and thus how would she be regarded as 'worse' than her opponents in that regard.
I think she can get over personal in her attacks and rigid, I think she could be regarded as being at the firm end of one side, but she was attacked even without that, so I also don't buy she is just some angry, terf provocateur.
20 or 30 years ago there were many people who would have said that they had nothing against gay people but that they wouldn't want them working in schools with their children.
If they were anti-gay views, would you say the same?
JKRowling is not anti-trans. She is anti trans extremists who are harming the trans cause. I think most trans people just want to live in peace.
It is analogous to Extinction Rebellion and concern about the damaging effects of climate change. You can support action to address climate change without supporting Extinction Rebellion.
Where would you place Rowling's deliberate misgendering of India Willoughby on the "not anti trans" scale? Calling her a "fantasising male".
It's one thing to say "I don't think trans women should be competing in men's sports" (reasonable) or "people who haven't fully transitioned shouldn't be able to use gendered facilities until further into their transition" (up for debate).
But to continually refer to a completely transitioned woman as "he", 24 years after they transitioned?
Rowling isn't transphobic? DOUBT.
There is a litany of evidence that suggests she thinks all trans women are "men".
She is an extremist and an absolutist, just as there are trans extremists on the other side who think all you have to do is say you're female and you magically become one overnight*, when in fact transition is a medical process that takes years.
*Edit to point out how funny it is that trans men are always ignored in this debate.
To my mind an extremist on this issue is someone who threatens violence or expresses hatred. Neither of which I have seen from Rowling. Could she be kinder or more generous? That's a reasonable debate.
I think someone can probably be an extremist without going that far. But is refusal to modulate a position at all itself extremist? Perhaps to some extent, but then many people on both sides will be extremist, and thus how would she be regarded as 'worse' than her opponents in that regard.
I think she can get over personal in her attacks and rigid, I think she could be regarded as being at the firm end of one side, but she was attacked even without that, so I also don't buy she is just some angry, terf provocateur.
20 or 30 years ago there were many people who would have said that they had nothing against gay people but that they wouldn't want them working in schools with their children.
If JKR is an extremist in her view on trans, so are a good 70% of the population. I think to be an extremist, you have to be right at one end of the bell curve. JKR's views are mainstream as fuck.
If they were anti-gay views, would you say the same?
JKRowling is not anti-trans. She is anti trans extremists who are harming the trans cause. I think most trans people just want to live in peace.
It is analogous to Extinction Rebellion and concern about the damaging effects of climate change. You can support action to address climate change without supporting Extinction Rebellion.
Where would you place Rowling's deliberate misgendering of India Willoughby on the "not anti trans" scale? Calling her a "fantasising male".
It's one thing to say "I don't think trans women should be competing in men's sports" (reasonable) or "people who haven't fully transitioned shouldn't be able to use gendered facilities until further into their transition" (up for debate).
But to continually refer to a completely transitioned woman as "he", 14 years after they transitioned?
Rowling isn't transphobic? DOUBT.
There is a litany of evidence that suggests she thinks all trans women are "men".
She is an extremist and an absolutist, just as there are trans extremists on the other side who think all you have to do is say you're female and you magically become one overnight*, when in fact transition is a medical process that takes years.
*Edit to point out how funny it is that trans men are always ignored in this debate.
I was looking at the Scottish government's written submission for the Supreme Court hearing that is coming up. It is an appeal by the group For Women Scotland against the Court of Session's decision that men who had a GRC qualified as women when meeting a quota requirement on public boards.
This led me to try and find out how many people had GRCs under the 2004 GRA. Until 2020 this was just 5871. I think it will be now nearer 7k as the more recent figures are slightly higher at roughly 400 a year. That is for the whole of the UK. This, as you point out, is for both men who have become women and women have become men although I expect that there is more of the former than the latter.
In Scotland, where this case is coming from, I have not been able to find exact numbers but on a proportionate basis this indicates roughly 40 a year in total for both changes. It is frankly astonishing how much public money, time and effort has been spent arguing about this tiny minority.
The Scottish government's position has changed radically. After the courts found that their Gender Recognition Reform Act exceeded their authority by seeking to amend the effect of the Equality Act they are now arguing that the EA should be construed in accordance with the UK 2004 Act. On this I think that they are probably correct but the consequence is that the Scottish GRR Act has been abandoned completely, something that probably could not have happened when the Greens were still in the government.
There may, of course, be some thousands or possibly even tens of thousands who live as a different gender from their gender at birth who have never sought a certificate. But at that point we go from hard facts to speculation.
If only they had been so diligent on real issues rather than tilting at windmills and trying to frame former FM's.
On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.
I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
Not sure Badenoch is quite the right candidate to go fishing for LD and centrist Labour votes. Davey is a more conservative leader and overall safer bet.
Davey is anything but conservative. He's a socialist in a yellow suit with a flying bird on it.
Not at all.
For example the LDs oppose the abolition of AR on farms and imposition of VAT on private schools.
Davey certainly wasn't a Socialist when in government either.
It will be tough to expand the number of LD seats at the next GE, as there will surely be some dead cat bounce for the Tories, but it isn't impossible. There is not a lot of love out there for either of the big two parties. We may well be in one of those decades where the tectonic plates of party politics shift.
I suggest you read the interviews with him on his background and political philosophy, which was so left-wing the interviewer even asked him why he didn't join the Labour Party then - to which he gave some weakish answer about how he didn't like its tradition.
He's a Lefty through and through.
Don't confuse political opportunism for where his real sympathies lie, and he'd be delighted to prop up a Labour administration that fell short next time.
One of the interesting curiosities of modern politics is that Conservatives don’t look or act conservative. It’s all topsy turvey
On the contrary they seem determined to trash the country rather than conserve it.
It's to do now, with party loyalty running vertically through classes, rather than horizontally, across them.
People are still used to the idea of upper middle class people being overwhelmingly Conservative, and working class people being mainly Labour (with a substantial Conservative minority).
When in reality, the Conservatives have very little in common now, with much of the Establishment, and Labour have very little in common now, with broad swathes of working class Britain.
And, the same is true of the US, France, and other rich world democracies. Quite often now, the most solidly left-leaning constituencies are the most well-heeled.
It's fascinating to consider why that's the case.
Luxury beliefs of the university educated, especially women. They have to distinguish themselves from the hoi poloi who have always had small-c conservative views. Used to be done by owning a Jaguar, etc.
Luxury beliefs come a lot cheaper than luxury living or even traditional middle class living in southern England.
I wonder how much resentment there is among many recent graduates that they're not going to get the lifestyle they expected, that their parents had or what many of their age group who didn't go to university now has.
There's a lot of resentment around. Saw a Mumsnet post from a 40-something who had worked their way up to an income of £75k, and feels their standard of living doesn't match up to their parents who had a similar inflation-adjusted salary.
We could argue about why that is (housing?) and what to do about it, but people aren't happy and the spectacular Tory defeat was not the cathartic experience the country was looking for.
No there's a lot of buyer's remorse among the £50-70k class to voted Labour for the first time in ages or stayed home. They now realise Labour are going to destroy their jobs and tax them into poverty.
It's been a very steep learning curve for those voters and I expect out of the 2m who stayed home or switched Labour we can get 90% of them back and grab 1.5m from reform on the right. That becomes an election winning coalition in 2029 against what I think will be a deeply unpopular Labour government.
A lot of the £50-£70k class underestimate to a significant degree exactly how far up the pile they are.
Live in London or South East and tell me it's far up the pile.
But that's the problem. How can it be that £50k is not enough, when it's 50% higher than the median salary? The NMW still applies for those stocking the shelves in central London.
There needs to be a national strategy to spread demand around more. Better transport links, council tax linked to home values, abolish stamp duty, nodal energy pricing.
In addition NHS workers live in London and the South East too and well as to this mythical and unquantified “productivity improvements” my girlfriend works 13+ hour shifts with no break, no lunch, barely time to drink water as a junior doctor in the NHS. No one in the middle class private sector would put up with that and I really challenge anyone to squeeze any more “productivity” out of her
On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.
I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
Not sure Badenoch is quite the right candidate to go fishing for LD and centrist Labour votes. Davey is a more conservative leader and overall safer bet.
Davey is anything but conservative. He's a socialist in a yellow suit with a flying bird on it.
Not at all.
For example the LDs oppose the abolition of AR on farms and imposition of VAT on private schools.
Davey certainly wasn't a Socialist when in government either.
It will be tough to expand the number of LD seats at the next GE, as there will surely be some dead cat bounce for the Tories, but it isn't impossible. There is not a lot of love out there for either of the big two parties. We may well be in one of those decades where the tectonic plates of party politics shift.
I suggest you read the interviews with him on his background and political philosophy, which was so left-wing the interviewer even asked him why he didn't join the Labour Party then - to which he gave some weakish answer about how he didn't like its tradition.
He's a Lefty through and through.
Don't confuse political opportunism for where his real sympathies lie, and he'd be delighted to prop up a Labour administration that fell short next time.
One of the interesting curiosities of modern politics is that Conservatives don’t look or act conservative. It’s all topsy turvey
On the contrary they seem determined to trash the country rather than conserve it.
It's to do now, with party loyalty running vertically through classes, rather than horizontally, across them.
People are still used to the idea of upper middle class people being overwhelmingly Conservative, and working class people being mainly Labour (with a substantial Conservative minority).
When in reality, the Conservatives have very little in common now, with much of the Establishment, and Labour have very little in common now, with broad swathes of working class Britain.
And, the same is true of the US, France, and other rich world democracies. Quite often now, the most solidly left-leaning constituencies are the most well-heeled.
It's fascinating to consider why that's the case.
Luxury beliefs of the university educated, especially women. They have to distinguish themselves from the hoi poloi who have always had small-c conservative views. Used to be done by owning a Jaguar, etc.
Luxury beliefs come a lot cheaper than luxury living or even traditional middle class living in southern England.
I wonder how much resentment there is among many recent graduates that they're not going to get the lifestyle they expected, that their parents had or what many of their age group who didn't go to university now has.
There's a lot of resentment around. Saw a Mumsnet post from a 40-something who had worked their way up to an income of £75k, and feels their standard of living doesn't match up to their parents who had a similar inflation-adjusted salary.
We could argue about why that is (housing?) and what to do about it, but people aren't happy and the spectacular Tory defeat was not the cathartic experience the country was looking for.
No there's a lot of buyer's remorse among the £50-70k class to voted Labour for the first time in ages or stayed home. They now realise Labour are going to destroy their jobs and tax them into poverty.
It's been a very steep learning curve for those voters and I expect out of the 2m who stayed home or switched Labour we can get 90% of them back and grab 1.5m from reform on the right. That becomes an election winning coalition in 2029 against what I think will be a deeply unpopular Labour government.
A lot of the £50-£70k class underestimate to a significant degree exactly how far up the pile they are.
Live in London or South East and tell me it's far up the pile.
Most people get that Max but it isn’t particularly relevant when it’s your party that is protecting the interests of those with the housing wealth and those who start sentences with “well in my day I only earned £6k a year”.
People say it's the Tories but it's every party. Labour oversaw the boom in private rentals and multiple home ownership by cowboy landlords, they helped baby boomers pull up the ladder for the following generations and pushed gen X and millennials into renting by restricting the supply of available houses simply by outcompeting them with favourable mortgage terms and the ability to expense mortgage interest.
Then the Tories used a bunch of demand based measures to get first time buyers back in the game and it worked but only for people on higher incomes or who could get help from parents/inheritance etc...
The Lib Dems are pro immigration the nimby party and Reform are just as bad though at least they want to cut immigration which reduces demand for housing.
Ultimately there's no party that is willing to step up and tell the old fucks that the easy ride is over, make rent seeking unprofitable and force all of the landlords to sell existing property to first time buyers. Build 2m new properties all over the country and prefer family homes rather than shit high rises. Cut immigration to under 100k and deport illegal immigrants and jail employers/landlords/agencies who give them jobs and house them.
These are the actions that will help people aged under 50 get on the housing ladder, but no party will do all of them. Some may say they'll do one or maybe two but we need to do all of these things to get the housing market into a fit state for owners.
That’s a little harsh on the Tories - with increases in stamp duty on second homes, restricting mortgage deductions etc. Evidently not enough, but an attempt to manage things without cratering the market (and hence the banks)
Am I the only one thinking the Jaguar ad - sorry JaGUar (or some ther wanky mix of capital and lower case) is emblematic of Starmer's Britain - wanting to be different but having no idea of how to deliver? Whilst having no product to actually sell...
I haven't seen the controversial new ad but one branding problem it won't solve is the fact that it's pronounced jag-you-are over here and jag-wah across the pond, and heaven knows how it would be pronounced by a Spanish speaker.
Maybe they should rebrand themselves as just "jag" ? Lowercase seems trendy these days...
On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.
I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
Not sure Badenoch is quite the right candidate to go fishing for LD and centrist Labour votes. Davey is a more conservative leader and overall safer bet.
Davey is anything but conservative. He's a socialist in a yellow suit with a flying bird on it.
Not at all.
For example the LDs oppose the abolition of AR on farms and imposition of VAT on private schools.
Davey certainly wasn't a Socialist when in government either.
It will be tough to expand the number of LD seats at the next GE, as there will surely be some dead cat bounce for the Tories, but it isn't impossible. There is not a lot of love out there for either of the big two parties. We may well be in one of those decades where the tectonic plates of party politics shift.
I suggest you read the interviews with him on his background and political philosophy, which was so left-wing the interviewer even asked him why he didn't join the Labour Party then - to which he gave some weakish answer about how he didn't like its tradition.
He's a Lefty through and through.
Don't confuse political opportunism for where his real sympathies lie, and he'd be delighted to prop up a Labour administration that fell short next time.
One of the interesting curiosities of modern politics is that Conservatives don’t look or act conservative. It’s all topsy turvey
On the contrary they seem determined to trash the country rather than conserve it.
It's to do now, with party loyalty running vertically through classes, rather than horizontally, across them.
People are still used to the idea of upper middle class people being overwhelmingly Conservative, and working class people being mainly Labour (with a substantial Conservative minority).
When in reality, the Conservatives have very little in common now, with much of the Establishment, and Labour have very little in common now, with broad swathes of working class Britain.
And, the same is true of the US, France, and other rich world democracies. Quite often now, the most solidly left-leaning constituencies are the most well-heeled.
It's fascinating to consider why that's the case.
Luxury beliefs of the university educated, especially women. They have to distinguish themselves from the hoi poloi who have always had small-c conservative views. Used to be done by owning a Jaguar, etc.
Luxury beliefs come a lot cheaper than luxury living or even traditional middle class living in southern England.
I wonder how much resentment there is among many recent graduates that they're not going to get the lifestyle they expected, that their parents had or what many of their age group who didn't go to university now has.
There's a lot of resentment around. Saw a Mumsnet post from a 40-something who had worked their way up to an income of £75k, and feels their standard of living doesn't match up to their parents who had a similar inflation-adjusted salary.
We could argue about why that is (housing?) and what to do about it, but people aren't happy and the spectacular Tory defeat was not the cathartic experience the country was looking for.
No there's a lot of buyer's remorse among the £50-70k class to voted Labour for the first time in ages or stayed home. They now realise Labour are going to destroy their jobs and tax them into poverty.
It's been a very steep learning curve for those voters and I expect out of the 2m who stayed home or switched Labour we can get 90% of them back and grab 1.5m from reform on the right. That becomes an election winning coalition in 2029 against what I think will be a deeply unpopular Labour government.
A lot of the £50-£70k class underestimate to a significant degree exactly how far up the pile they are.
Live in London or South East and tell me it's far up the pile.
But that's the problem. How can it be that £50k is not enough, when it's 50% higher than the median salary? The NMW still applies for those stocking the shelves in central London.
There needs to be a national strategy to spread demand around more. Better transport links, council tax linked to home values, abolish stamp duty, nodal energy pricing.
In addition NHS workers live in London and the South East too and well as to this mythical and unquantified “productivity improvements” my girlfriend works 13+ hour shifts with no break, no lunch, barely time to drink water as a junior doctor in the NHS. No one in the middle class private sector would put up with that and I really challenge anyone to squeeze any more “productivity” out of her
I will confess to not really understanding what is argued about when politicians talk about productivity. Maybe I'm being thick but the terms of the debate don't make it immediately obvious to me what is being measured, and thus how big an issue it is.
It’s just another word for magic money tree. No doubt there are some productivity improvements that can be made in public sector organisations but until anyone can actually quantify them, using them to quantify what level of tax can be reduced on the rest of us is just nonsense.
In the case of the junior doctor, above, it is worth noting that productivity gains are not achieved by “working harder”, nearly ever.
They come from removing things for the job which as part of the job, but not needed.
The classic example was how the process of setting up a piece on a lathe, in a factory, went from a long, fiddly process (hours), to drop roughly in place and pull on this lever. This enabled the machinist to spend much more time machining than setting up.
Bet you could do the same with doctors, cut out all the unecessary stuff and get rid of the violins to boot.
If they were anti-gay views, would you say the same?
JKRowling is not anti-trans. She is anti trans extremists who are harming the trans cause. I think most trans people just want to live in peace.
It is analogous to Extinction Rebellion and concern about the damaging effects of climate change. You can support action to address climate change without supporting Extinction Rebellion.
Where would you place Rowling's deliberate misgendering of India Willoughby on the "not anti trans" scale? Calling her a "fantasising male".
It's one thing to say "I don't think trans women should be competing in men's sports" (reasonable) or "people who haven't fully transitioned shouldn't be able to use gendered facilities until further into their transition" (up for debate).
But to continually refer to a completely transitioned woman as "he", 24 years after they transitioned?
Rowling isn't transphobic? DOUBT.
There is a litany of evidence that suggests she thinks all trans women are "men".
She is an extremist and an absolutist, just as there are trans extremists on the other side who think all you have to do is say you're female and you magically become one overnight*, when in fact transition is a medical process that takes years.
*Edit to point out how funny it is that trans men are always ignored in this debate.
To my mind an extremist on this issue is someone who threatens violence or expresses hatred. Neither of which I have seen from Rowling. Could she be kinder or more generous? That's a reasonable debate.
I think someone can probably be an extremist without going that far. But is refusal to modulate a position at all itself extremist? Perhaps to some extent, but then many people on both sides will be extremist, and thus how would she be regarded as 'worse' than her opponents in that regard.
I think she can get over personal in her attacks and rigid, I think she could be regarded as being at the firm end of one side, but she was attacked even without that, so I also don't buy she is just some angry, terf provocateur.
20 or 30 years ago there were many people who would have said that they had nothing against gay people but that they wouldn't want them working in schools with their children.
If JKR is an extremist in her view on trans, so are a good 70% of the population. I think to be an extremist, you have to be right at one end of the bell curve. JKR's views are mainstream as fuck.
Thinking that gay people should be excluded from schools, regiments, doctor's surgeries and male locker rooms wasn't particularly extremist when I was born but it most certainly is now.
On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.
I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
Not sure Badenoch is quite the right candidate to go fishing for LD and centrist Labour votes. Davey is a more conservative leader and overall safer bet.
Davey is anything but conservative. He's a socialist in a yellow suit with a flying bird on it.
Not at all.
For example the LDs oppose the abolition of AR on farms and imposition of VAT on private schools.
Davey certainly wasn't a Socialist when in government either.
It will be tough to expand the number of LD seats at the next GE, as there will surely be some dead cat bounce for the Tories, but it isn't impossible. There is not a lot of love out there for either of the big two parties. We may well be in one of those decades where the tectonic plates of party politics shift.
I suggest you read the interviews with him on his background and political philosophy, which was so left-wing the interviewer even asked him why he didn't join the Labour Party then - to which he gave some weakish answer about how he didn't like its tradition.
He's a Lefty through and through.
Don't confuse political opportunism for where his real sympathies lie, and he'd be delighted to prop up a Labour administration that fell short next time.
One of the interesting curiosities of modern politics is that Conservatives don’t look or act conservative. It’s all topsy turvey
On the contrary they seem determined to trash the country rather than conserve it.
It's to do now, with party loyalty running vertically through classes, rather than horizontally, across them.
People are still used to the idea of upper middle class people being overwhelmingly Conservative, and working class people being mainly Labour (with a substantial Conservative minority).
When in reality, the Conservatives have very little in common now, with much of the Establishment, and Labour have very little in common now, with broad swathes of working class Britain.
And, the same is true of the US, France, and other rich world democracies. Quite often now, the most solidly left-leaning constituencies are the most well-heeled.
It's fascinating to consider why that's the case.
Luxury beliefs of the university educated, especially women. They have to distinguish themselves from the hoi poloi who have always had small-c conservative views. Used to be done by owning a Jaguar, etc.
Luxury beliefs come a lot cheaper than luxury living or even traditional middle class living in southern England.
I wonder how much resentment there is among many recent graduates that they're not going to get the lifestyle they expected, that their parents had or what many of their age group who didn't go to university now has.
There's a lot of resentment around. Saw a Mumsnet post from a 40-something who had worked their way up to an income of £75k, and feels their standard of living doesn't match up to their parents who had a similar inflation-adjusted salary.
We could argue about why that is (housing?) and what to do about it, but people aren't happy and the spectacular Tory defeat was not the cathartic experience the country was looking for.
No there's a lot of buyer's remorse among the £50-70k class to voted Labour for the first time in ages or stayed home. They now realise Labour are going to destroy their jobs and tax them into poverty.
It's been a very steep learning curve for those voters and I expect out of the 2m who stayed home or switched Labour we can get 90% of them back and grab 1.5m from reform on the right. That becomes an election winning coalition in 2029 against what I think will be a deeply unpopular Labour government.
A lot of the £50-£70k class underestimate to a significant degree exactly how far up the pile they are.
Live in London or South East and tell me it's far up the pile.
But that's the problem. How can it be that £50k is not enough, when it's 50% higher than the median salary? The NMW still applies for those stocking the shelves in central London.
There needs to be a national strategy to spread demand around more. Better transport links, council tax linked to home values, abolish stamp duty, nodal energy pricing.
In addition NHS workers live in London and the South East too and well as to this mythical and unquantified “productivity improvements” my girlfriend works 13+ hour shifts with no break, no lunch, barely time to drink water as a junior doctor in the NHS. No one in the middle class private sector would put up with that and I really challenge anyone to squeeze any more “productivity” out of her
I am pretty sure that the productivity improvements of which people speak relate to the bureaucratic layers of the service and the department of health, rather than thinking frontline service providers need to do more.
Comments
He is saying - I think - that the structure of the LLP means that these 4 law firms are reducing their tax bills by £4bn.
Which implies they are making profits of £29bn - I don’t believe that. (At 13.8%)
Their total revenues were £8.4in 2024 (Links 2.1; A&O 2.2; FBD £1.8; CC 2.3). I can believe that they paid out £4bn in partners profits. Which would mean that the lost tax is in the region of £500m.
Still very significant, but…
Paradise.
A west London nightclub could lose its licence after a gun battle erupted at the exact moment a health and safety officer was visiting to investigate crime and disorder claims.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgqyj5yeqpjo
If Khelif does have raised levels of testosterone giving her an advantage at boxing, then she doesn’t have complete androgen insensitivity syndrome.
I would find it odd to tell someone who is anatomically female and lived their whole life believing themselves to be female that they are a man.
They come from removing things for the job which as part of the job, but not needed.
The classic example was how the process of setting up a piece on a lathe, in a factory, went from a long, fiddly process (hours), to drop roughly in place and pull on this lever. This enabled the machinist to spend much more time machining than setting up.
be a little tight but he would be able to get through it and whatever they are trying to block would still be blocked
NEW THREAD
Anti-wheelchair A-Barrier in a cocktail dress as part of an "art" project.
Doesn't matter - it still blocks mobility scooters and power wheelchairs, as is discriminatory under the Equality Act 2010.
And it needs to come out to leave just an entrance.
https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1687198688949735424
To add insult to injury, @KeepBritainTidy
have given the park a Green Flag, for which compliance with the Equality Act 2010, and "Access for All", are basic criteria.
https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1687201260301340676
This is at ///puns.rust.paid. Very PB.
I think to be an extremist, you have to be right at one end of the bell curve. JKR's views are mainstream as fuck.