Will Farage become Tory leader before 2026? – politicalbetting.com

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Will Farage become Tory leader before 2026? – politicalbetting.com

I just cannot see the logistics of how Nigel Farage becomes Tory leader before 2026, nor do I expect a clamour within the volunteer party where Farage’s shilling for Putin goes down badly.

Read the full story here

Foxy

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

JosiasJessop

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

Fishing

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

JosiasJessop

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Alanbrooke

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

On-topic: bloody hope not.

Off-topic: ha, bit miffed at myself for not backing Sainz for pole each way. Good starting place for a win attempt, though.

Jonathan

Does Farage need to be Tory leader any more?

He already has captured the Thatcherite working class vote. He has serious investment in the Reform party machine and has already broke through the FPTP barrier. The Tory brand was Ratnered by Truss. Badenoch meanwhile presents no challenge and Starmer presents an opportunity.

JosiasJessop

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Oh, I understand the appeal. I just don't agree with it.

That's the same mistake people make with Trump. People say: "You just don't understand his appeal!"

Which is wrong. You can understand the appeal, but disagree with it.

Sandpit

QTWTAIN.

Sandpit

10th like Lewis Hamilton.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, I'm sticking with my view that Ferrari should've kept Sainz.

Next year, I expect Leclerc to beat Hamilton handily. May be different in 2026 when the rules change.

Foxy

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Oh, I understand the appeal. I just don't agree with it.

That's the same mistake people make with Trump. People say: "You just don't understand his appeal!"

Which is wrong. You can understand the appeal, but disagree with it.

The biggest problem for the Tories with Farage is his monomania on the subject of immigration. A serious party needs a much broader spectrum of policies than that supplicant of Trump and Putin. There also needs to be some organisational skill and discipline.

Jonathan

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

Dopermean

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

The tip is a 10% return in 12 months because regardless of how you feel about farage it's exceedingly unlikely he can become leader of the the Tory party by 2026.
Badenoch has to be ousted, which can't be done until 1 year is up, the leadership election would have to be done, the last one was 3-4 months and Farage would have to have joined the conservatives and be elected leader.
It's impossible.
The only quest is whether 10% return is worth it.

Foxy

Jonathan said:

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

Badenoch has that unfortunate combination of an abrasive personality combined with a thin skin, but unlike some of her predecessors as Tory leader has some interesting and internally consistent ideas of reforming the state.

Seeing the furore and pearl clutching from even the slightest changes to benefits and taxation these might be a hard sell to the British public. Our nation seems stuck in cognitive dissonance between wanting change and for nothing to change.

Pulpstar

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

noneoftheabove

The interesting thing is the bookie has given themselves a safe bet by choosing 2026 instead of 2028. Wisely done as that is when he will take over.

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

Foxy

Dopermean said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

The tip is a 10% return in 12 months because regardless of how you feel about farage it's exceedingly unlikely he can become leader of the the Tory party by 2026.
Badenoch has to be ousted, which can't be done until 1 year is up, the leadership election would have to be done, the last one was 3-4 months and Farage would have to have joined the conservatives and be elected leader.
It's impossible.
The only quest is whether 10% return is worth it.

Not only the timescale on a Badenoch defenestration, but also the small issue of a Reform party leader needing to defect then get chosen by the Tory MPs for the final too. That 10% is nailed on, but I have better things to do with my money.

Foxy

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

It's certainly a miserable day to go watch Leicester City lose to our former manager.

There was a further blow to the Foxes this week as our best winger got a major knee injury on international duty and is out for the season. Hopefully it keeps away interest from other teams, as I would love to keep him.

Dopermean

noneoftheabove said:

The interesting thing is the bookie has given themselves a safe bet by choosing 2026 instead of 2028. Wisely done as that is when he will take over.

The spelling mistake worries me, do Ladbrokes have form for voiding markets on that basis?

Taz

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net and the likes of Britains Thirst.

Even Mr Farage was talking recently not wanting to politically alienate Islam. Something that has seen him condemned by the far right.

https://x.com/mciazayyan/status/1858622430228402527?s=61

Jonathan

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

Badenoch has that unfortunate combination of an abrasive personality combined with a thin skin, but unlike some of her predecessors as Tory leader has some interesting and internally consistent ideas of reforming the state.

Seeing the furore and pearl clutching from even the slightest changes to benefits and taxation these might be a hard sell to the British public. Our nation seems stuck in cognitive dissonance between wanting change and for nothing to change.

The problem is that there isn’t a coherent “nation”, social media has give us a plethora of special interests, each living within its own bubble. When something changes, the bubble explodes noisily. You get all sorts of hyperbolic bullshit.

The job of national politicians trying to make trade offs is nigh on impossible, which is not to say that Starmer and predecessors haven’t made unforced errors because they themselves also live in a bubble.

JosiasJessop

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net.

(Snip)

The GRT has been clearly mentioned on here in the past, and insinuated about. You can guess the main poster...

Taz

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Absolutely and with that comes the sneering at left behind communities and people who support Reform.

At times it really is an upper middle class circle jerk here.

Taz

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net.

(Snip)

The GRT has been clearly mentioned on here in the past, and insinuated about. You can guess the main poster...

Apart from one ill considered post about white babies I cannot say I have ever seen anything even approaching it.

noneoftheabove

Dopermean said:

noneoftheabove said:

The interesting thing is the bookie has given themselves a safe bet by choosing 2026 instead of 2028. Wisely done as that is when he will take over.

The spelling mistake worries me, do Ladbrokes have form for voiding markets on that basis?

When they started a betting exchange they went full woke and used the url ladbrokesexchange.com. I wouldn't worry.

HYUFD

No he won't. Farage has no interest in becoming Tory leader and CCHQ wouldn't let him become a Tory MP either.

At most he could do a deal with Badenoch if combined Reform ams and the Tories have enough seats for a majority in parliament

Jonathan

Taz said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Absolutely and with that comes the sneering at left behind communities and people who support Reform.

At times it really is an upper middle class circle jerk here.

Sneering comes in all directions. Farage especially loves a good sneer.

IanB2

No

noneoftheabove

HYUFD said:

No he won't. Farage has no interest in becoming Tory leader and CCHQ wouldn't let him become a Tory MP either.

At most he could do a deal with Badenoch if combined Reform ams and the Tories have enough seats for a majority in parliament

Farage in October last year:

“I’d be very surprised if I were not Conservative leader by ‘26. Very surprised.”

HYUFD

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

No he won't. Farage has no interest in becoming Tory leader and CCHQ wouldn't let him become a Tory MP either.

At most he could do a deal with Badenoch if combined Reform ams and the Tories have enough seats for a majority in parliament

Would you be happy if the Tories supported a Farage led coalition?

noneoftheabove

Dopermean said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

The tip is a 10% return in 12 months because regardless of how you feel about farage it's exceedingly unlikely he can become leader of the the Tory party by 2026.
Badenoch has to be ousted, which can't be done until 1 year is up, the leadership election would have to be done, the last one was 3-4 months and Farage would have to have joined the conservatives and be elected leader.
It's impossible.
The only quest is whether 10% return is worth it.

If you put it in an average savings account youd get about 8% in 2 years. Best buy you are getting over 9%. So you are laying 50-100 in real terms not 10.

Pulpstar

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

Why's the price at £60.80 / MWH - with wind power near a record high you'd hope that'd force it (At least for now) down cheap, cheap cheap but the price is still much higher than the average was in 2020.

HYUFD

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net and the likes of Britains Thirst.

Even Mr Farage was talking recently not wanting to politically alienate Islam. Something that has seen him condemned by the far right.

https://x.com/mciazayyan/status/1858622430228402527?s=61

He was talking by 2050 on current trajectory of rising Muslim population in the UK they couldn't afford to alienate Muslims.

Though it has also led to him falling out with Tommy Robinson, hence Robinson has endorsed UKIP not Reform

bondegezou

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net.

(Snip)

The GRT has been clearly mentioned on here in the past, and insinuated about. You can guess the main poster...

Apart from one ill considered post about white babies I cannot say I have ever seen anything even approaching it.

So you missed the follow-up posts a few days later where he explained he really, really meant the first post?

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022399/#Comment_5022399

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022482/#Comment_5022482

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

Why's the price at £60.80 / MWH - with wind power near a record high you'd hope that'd force it (At least for now) down cheap, cheap cheap but the price is still much higher than the average was in 2020.

That's not near a record high. That's barely 75% of the record high.

https://renews.biz/90294/uk-sets-wind-energy-record/

But yes, I do take your point. I suspect as much as any other reason it's because the payments system for power generation is an embarrassing mess.

Stocky

Re Leicester match @Foxy , you are not confident but 1.49 on Chelsea win looks short to me so I've layed it.

Also backed nil-nil at an overpriced 26.

Man City very short at 1.43 v Spurs.

fitalass

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

I second that.

Taz

Jonathan said:

Taz said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Absolutely and with that comes the sneering at left behind communities and people who support Reform.

At times it really is an upper middle class circle jerk here.

Sneering comes in all directions. Farage especially loves a good sneer.

So does Sir Sneer Starmer but we were discussing posting here and, unless under a nom de plume, Farage does not post here.

DecrepiterJohnL

I instantly lose respect for anyone who posts on LinkedIn. Unbearably cringe.
— Elon Musk. MRDA.

Pulpstar

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

Why's the price at £60.80 / MWH - with wind power near a record high you'd hope that'd force it (At least for now) down cheap, cheap cheap but the price is still much higher than the average was in 2020.

That's not near a record high. That's barely 75% of the record high.

https://renews.biz/90294/uk-sets-wind-energy-record/

But yes, I do take your point. I suspect as much as any other reason it's because the payments system for power generation is an embarrassing mess.

No wind generation is 20.63 now, price has happily dropped to £51.10

Taz

bondegezou said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net.

(Snip)

The GRT has been clearly mentioned on here in the past, and insinuated about. You can guess the main poster...

Apart from one ill considered post about white babies I cannot say I have ever seen anything even approaching it.

So you missed the follow-up posts a few days later where he explained he really, really meant the first post?

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022399/#Comment_5022399

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022482/#Comment_5022482

I acknowledged the Post about white babies. I’ve not seen anything else even close to the GRT guff as beloved by the far right.

In that second post he seems very self aware and contrite. Good.

When the debate happened I did not partake in it and just switched out to do something else as I felt little good would come of it.

However the original claim was about posters and the GRT and it being a growing phenomenon. I’ve not seen it here.

xyzxyzxyz

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net and the likes of Britains Thirst.

Even Mr Farage was talking recently not wanting to politically alienate Islam. Something that has seen him condemned by the far right.

https://x.com/mciazayyan/status/1858622430228402527?s=61

Here is the UN document titled Replacement Immigration. No mention of great.

https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf

Taz

HYUFD said:

Taz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

Is there a growing thought here about the great replacement theory ?

If so I’ve missed it.

It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net and the likes of Britains Thirst.

Even Mr Farage was talking recently not wanting to politically alienate Islam. Something that has seen him condemned by the far right.

https://x.com/mciazayyan/status/1858622430228402527?s=61

He was talking by 2050 on current trajectory of rising Muslim population in the UK they couldn't afford to alienate Muslims.

Though it has also led to him falling out with Tommy Robinson, hence Robinson has endorsed UKIP not Reform

That’s not likely to harm Reform I’d have thought.

Foxy

Stocky said:

Re Leicester match @Foxy , you are not confident but 1.49 on Chelsea win looks short to me so I've layed it.

Also backed nil-nil at an overpriced 26.

Man City very short at 1.43 v Spurs.

The foul weather will make play difficult, but we have had only one clean sheet so far. We are missing 2 of our two creative players (Fatawu and Buenonotte) and don't have a fully fit striker. Neither do we have a manager who can cope with game management and his long ball approach is going to be impossible in the conditions.

I would forecast 0:2 or 0:3, with only the conditions and the exceptional Mads Hermansen* in goal for City keeping it to that.

Jonathan

Taz said:

Jonathan said:

Taz said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Absolutely and with that comes the sneering at left behind communities and people who support Reform.

At times it really is an upper middle class circle jerk here.

Sneering comes in all directions. Farage especially loves a good sneer.

So does Sir Sneer Starmer but we were discussing posting here and, unless under a nom de plume, Farage does not post here.

Lots of sneering from all directions on pb. Everyone is at it.

The “common sense” right wing brigade currently wear the crown, not only do they think they are right, they think their opinions represent some sort of fundamental, universal truth and look down on others.

Taz

How much land has exchanged ownership/occupation on the Ukraine Eastern front in the last two years.

Does Russia have momentum as Ian Bremmer says.

https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1860053681883734192?s=61

DecrepiterJohnL

I'm A Celebrity fans joke super sleuth Coleen Rooney is 'better than MI6' as she figures out the true nature of the Jungle Junkyard
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tv/article-14115709/im-celebrity-suspicious-jungle-dean-mccullough-secrets.html

Coleen's got more chance than Nigel Farage.

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

Why's the price at £60.80 / MWH - with wind power near a record high you'd hope that'd force it (At least for now) down cheap, cheap cheap but the price is still much higher than the average was in 2020.

That's not near a record high. That's barely 75% of the record high.

https://renews.biz/90294/uk-sets-wind-energy-record/

But yes, I do take your point. I suspect as much as any other reason it's because the payments system for power generation is an embarrassing mess.

I might be oversimplifying, but doesn't it boil down to "as long as any gas is being burnt, that sets the price of everything"?

In which case, is there a Janet and John version of why that model was chosen?

Theuniondivvie

fitalass said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

I second that.

I third that.
There's no way I'd vote for the Conservative party if anyone else was leader mind, but that's a mere detail.

Stuartinromford

Oh, and on topic...

If there's value in the Farage markets, it's in betting against mug punters backing what they want rather than what's likely (cf. England in the football).

The one year immunity isn't that sure- it didn't save Truss, Johnson or May. Political death will find a way. But a lot of stars need to align to get Farage into and then leading the Conservatives. But maybe that's me antibacking what I don't want, like some kind of mug.

fitalass

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Wrong. Long time political anoraks on this site of all political persuasions have sadly always understood the appeal of Farage and why in his previous role as UKIP leader he and his previous party were so successful in European elections, and far more so in Labour heartlands seats by 2015 than in previous heartland Conservative seats and also in particular in the Welsh Parliamentary elections around that time. So no surprise at how well Reform are performing in either Wales or Scotland right now.

But again, long time political anoraks are already recognising the negative signs of his previous modus operandi as leader of UKIP starting to appear on his new Reform bandwagon.

Casino_Royale

If the Conservatives and Labour continue to fail to get a grip on the economy, immigration, defence and cultural assaults on the country and its population then, yes, I could see Farage doing surprisingly well. Possibly all the way.

It's the bet on him becoming PM by 2040 that I'd be interested in. But not at those odds.

Jonathan

fitalass said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Wrong. Long time political anoraks on this site of all political persuasions have sadly always understood the appeal of Farage and why in his previous role as UKIP leader he and his previous party were so successful in European elections, and far more so in Labour heartlands seats by 2015 than in previous heartland Conservative seats and also in particular in the Welsh Parliamentary elections around that time. So no surprise at how well Reform are performing in either Wales or Scotland right now.

But again, long time political anoraks are already recognising the negative signs of his previous modus operandi as leader of UKIP starting to appear on his new Reform bandwagon.

Are you saying that Farage is yesterday’s man, like Trump?

Luckyguy1983

Jonathan said:

Does Farage need to be Tory leader any more?

He already has captured the Thatcherite working class vote. He has serious investment in the Reform party machine and has already broke through the FPTP barrier. The Tory brand was Ratnered by Truss. Badenoch meanwhile presents no challenge and Starmer presents an opportunity.

You can claim that the Tory brand has been permanently destroyed by Truss, but it still wouldn't be 'Ratnering' it.

To do a Ratner is to take a successful brand and destroy it by publicly declaring how shit it is. The closest the Tories have had to a Ratner moment was Theresa May's 'Nasty Party' speech.

Casino_Royale

I see the MD of Jaguar, Rawdon Glover, has shown himself up to be a chronic dickhead with a markedly defensive interview in The Times today, calling the negative reaction to his ad - utterly predictably - a "blaze of intolerance". We see, now, how this idiocy was signed off in the first place.

Rattled doesn't come close.

Here's what will happen: he will lose his existing customer base, he won't gain the younger and wealthier one he craves, the brand will fail, and then he'll be sacked:

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/jaguar-boss-defends-rebrand-from-blaze-of-intolerance-dh3mgqdqh

Luckyguy1983

On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.

JosiasJessop

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

LOL. No. Before the party lost its head and voted Boris in, I voted Conservative more often than not. Including when New Labour was in power. I'm willing to give Badenoch a chance, although I was not impressed before she became LOTO.

Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"

Foxy

Jonathan said:

fitalass said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Wrong. Long time political anoraks on this site of all political persuasions have sadly always understood the appeal of Farage and why in his previous role as UKIP leader he and his previous party were so successful in European elections, and far more so in Labour heartlands seats by 2015 than in previous heartland Conservative seats and also in particular in the Welsh Parliamentary elections around that time. So no surprise at how well Reform are performing in either Wales or Scotland right now.

But again, long time political anoraks are already recognising the negative signs of his previous modus operandi as leader of UKIP starting to appear on his new Reform bandwagon.

Are you saying that Farage is yesterday’s man, like Trump?

The difference is that we don't have a Presidential system. Farage might do well at that (though there would be a lot of tactical voting against), but in the UK he needs 326 MPs to become PM and the calibre of Reform candidates is very poor. He would need to take over the existing Tory party and for them to nearly treble their seats to become PM.

He is also ageing fast and is a bit too fond of long boozy lunches and media grandstanding to do the hard work needed, like constituency surgeries and committee work.

Carnyx

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

LOL. No. Before the party lost its head and voted Boris in, I voted Conservative more often than not. Including when New Labour was in power. I'm willing to give Badenoch a chance, although I was not impressed before she became LOTO.

Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"

HYUFD used to say exactly that on here on behalf of the Conservative and Unionist Party, though tbf he's dialled that down in the last year or three, perhaps realising the implications for his political career.

fitalass

Jonathan said:

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

If you have to ask that question, then you don't get Kemi Badenoch or chances her chances of staying the course as Conservative leader until the next GE. She gave a very good speech at the Farmers protest in London, she was totally on top her brief when it came to understanding and articulating the wider long term issues surrounding this terrible Labour tax policy for the farming community, far more so than Nigel Farage or even Jeremy Clarkson on the day.

Big_G_NorthWales

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

LOL. No. Before the party lost its head and voted Boris in, I voted Conservative more often than not. Including when New Labour was in power. I'm willing to give Badenoch a chance, although I was not impressed before she became LOTO.

Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"

Good morning

Even I am not a conservative in @HYUFD eyes. !!!!!

Carnyx

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

Cookie

Casino_Royale said:

I see the MD of Jaguar, Rawdon Glover, has shown himself up to be a chronic dickhead with a markedly defensive interview in The Times today, calling the negative reaction to his ad - utterly predictably - a "blaze of intolerance". We see, now, how this idiocy was signed off in the first place.

Rattled doesn't come close.

Here's what will happen: he will lose his existing customer base, he won't gain the younger and wealthier one he craves, the brand will fail, and then he'll be sacked:

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/jaguar-boss-defends-rebrand-from-blaze-of-intolerance-dh3mgqdqh

Is he claiming it's intolerant to mock an advert? ISTR the buffoon in charge of Aberdeen Asset Management tried a similar tack with criticism of their rebrand.
Or is he trying to hint that the real reason people don't like the advert is that they're racists? Which rather overlooks the hundreds of non-shit adverts with black people in which people don't mock.

RobD

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

Stuartinromford

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

fitalass said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Wrong. Long time political anoraks on this site of all political persuasions have sadly always understood the appeal of Farage and why in his previous role as UKIP leader he and his previous party were so successful in European elections, and far more so in Labour heartlands seats by 2015 than in previous heartland Conservative seats and also in particular in the Welsh Parliamentary elections around that time. So no surprise at how well Reform are performing in either Wales or Scotland right now.

But again, long time political anoraks are already recognising the negative signs of his previous modus operandi as leader of UKIP starting to appear on his new Reform bandwagon.

Are you saying that Farage is yesterday’s man, like Trump?

The difference is that we don't have a Presidential system. Farage might do well at that (though there would be a lot of tactical voting against), but in the UK he needs 326 MPs to become PM and the calibre of Reform candidates is very poor. He would need to take over the existing Tory party and for them to nearly treble their seats to become PM.

He is also ageing fast and is a bit too fond of long boozy lunches and media grandstanding to do the hard work needed, like constituency surgeries and committee work.

The interesting counterfactual is "what if Farage has broken through at Westminster in 2017/9?" By sitting those out, he's probably left it too late.

People are already flicking through the Argos website for a small-but-not-totally-insulting retirement gift for Starmer. Farage is roughly the same age and older with it.

Chamberlain was horribly wrong when he claimed that Hitler had missed the bus in 1940, but Farage has probably missed his.

rkrkrk

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

fitalass said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

First.

Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.

Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.

I'm not so sure. Farage strikes me as someone that the centrist Establishment often underestimate.

People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.

It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...

I can only speak for myself. But there is a growing thought in this country - and on here - that embraces shit like the Great Replacement Theory. I think that theory is nasty b/s, but politically it plays well amongst people who like conspiracy theories, are borderline or fully racist, and who want someone to blame for things they don't like.

And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.

PB is just too upper middle class to understand the appeal of Farage.

Wrong. Long time political anoraks on this site of all political persuasions have sadly always understood the appeal of Farage and why in his previous role as UKIP leader he and his previous party were so successful in European elections, and far more so in Labour heartlands seats by 2015 than in previous heartland Conservative seats and also in particular in the Welsh Parliamentary elections around that time. So no surprise at how well Reform are performing in either Wales or Scotland right now.

But again, long time political anoraks are already recognising the negative signs of his previous modus operandi as leader of UKIP starting to appear on his new Reform bandwagon.

Are you saying that Farage is yesterday’s man, like Trump?

The difference is that we don't have a Presidential system. Farage might do well at that (though there would be a lot of tactical voting against), but in the UK he needs 326 MPs to become PM and the calibre of Reform candidates is very poor. He would need to take over the existing Tory party and for them to nearly treble their seats to become PM.

He is also ageing fast and is a bit too fond of long boozy lunches and media grandstanding to do the hard work needed, like constituency surgeries and committee work.

He is 60 which I must admit surprised me, I thought he was much older.

Northern_Al

Big_G_NorthWales said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

LOL. No. Before the party lost its head and voted Boris in, I voted Conservative more often than not. Including when New Labour was in power. I'm willing to give Badenoch a chance, although I was not impressed before she became LOTO.

Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"

Good morning

Even I am not a conservative in @HYUFD eyes. !!!!!

Don't worry, Big G. You are in everybody else's.

JosiasJessop

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

LOL. No. Before the party lost its head and voted Boris in, I voted Conservative more often than not. Including when New Labour was in power. I'm willing to give Badenoch a chance, although I was not impressed before she became LOTO.

Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"

Good morning

Even I am not a conservative in @HYUFD eyes. !!!!!

Don't worry, Big G. You are in everybody else's.

We are all PB Tories now, comrade!

Stocky

Jonathan said:

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

No, Badenoch is a combination of old school conservative and classic liberalism. She's neither libertarian nor populist.

Jonathan

fitalass said:

Jonathan said:

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

If you have to ask that question, then you don't get Kemi Badenoch or chances her chances of staying the course as Conservative leader until the next GE. She gave a very good speech at the Farmers protest in London, she was totally on top her brief when it came to understanding and articulating the wider long term issues surrounding this terrible Labour tax policy for the farming community, far more so than Nigel Farage or even Jeremy Clarkson on the day.

Not impressed. Badenoch backed government spending, but immediately attacks any way to pay for it. That’s not opposition, that’s empty protest and a dead end for her and her party.

She comes across as a tribal comfort zone politician, somewhere between Miliband and Corbyn. Maybe that’s what the Tories need right now.

Carnyx

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

The banks haven't been that great, it must be said. The delays in bringing in checking of the destination account and name were very telling (!). But either way somerthing to know about.

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

RobD

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

Easier to get many, many more people to fall for it, yielding a much higher return.

Carnyx

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

Easier to get many, many more people to fall for it, yielding a much higher return.

I was going to say that I acknowledge your expertise, but that might be misunderstood.

Malmesbury

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see the MD of Jaguar, Rawdon Glover, has shown himself up to be a chronic dickhead with a markedly defensive interview in The Times today, calling the negative reaction to his ad - utterly predictably - a "blaze of intolerance". We see, now, how this idiocy was signed off in the first place.

Rattled doesn't come close.

Here's what will happen: he will lose his existing customer base, he won't gain the younger and wealthier one he craves, the brand will fail, and then he'll be sacked:

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/jaguar-boss-defends-rebrand-from-blaze-of-intolerance-dh3mgqdqh

Is he claiming it's intolerant to mock an advert? ISTR the buffoon in charge of Aberdeen Asset Management tried a similar tack with criticism of their rebrand.
Or is he trying to hint that the real reason people don't like the advert is that they're racists? Which rather overlooks the hundreds of non-shit adverts with black people in which people don't mock.

The makers of shit films regularly claim that the reason that they are not successful is that the public is racist and misogynist (or homophobic as required).

Taz

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

The banks haven't been that great, it must be said. The delays in bringing in checking of the destination account and name were very telling (!). But either way somerthing to know about.

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

I had one where someone managed to spend 2.99 GBP on my Amazon account. Spotted the and rang them. They said it was a scam and they used a small amount first hoping it was not noticed. Then they’d spend big,after a few days,

DavidL

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

We've got some snow this morning. Enough to cover the grass already and its still coming down. Don't expect it to last too long but its pretty.

Foxy

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see the MD of Jaguar, Rawdon Glover, has shown himself up to be a chronic dickhead with a markedly defensive interview in The Times today, calling the negative reaction to his ad - utterly predictably - a "blaze of intolerance". We see, now, how this idiocy was signed off in the first place.

Rattled doesn't come close.

Here's what will happen: he will lose his existing customer base, he won't gain the younger and wealthier one he craves, the brand will fail, and then he'll be sacked:

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/jaguar-boss-defends-rebrand-from-blaze-of-intolerance-dh3mgqdqh

Is he claiming it's intolerant to mock an advert? ISTR the buffoon in charge of Aberdeen Asset Management tried a similar tack with criticism of their rebrand.
Or is he trying to hint that the real reason people don't like the advert is that they're racists? Which rather overlooks the hundreds of non-shit adverts with black people in which people don't mock.

The makers of shit films regularly claim that the reason that they are not successful is that the public is racist and misogynist (or homophobic as required).

No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the general public!

Carnyx

Taz said:

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

The banks haven't been that great, it must be said. The delays in bringing in checking of the destination account and name were very telling (!). But either way somerthing to know about.

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

I had one where someone managed to spend 2.99 GBP on my Amazon account. Spotted the and rang them. They said it was a scam and they used a small amount first hoping it was not noticed. Then they’d spend big,after a few days,

Did you get an email notification of the order, as with a normal order?

Carnyx

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

We've got some snow this morning. Enough to cover the grass already and its still coming down. Don't expect it to last too long but its pretty.

Minor blizzard here south of Forth albeit not at sea level. But not frosty and we have very warm air coming over overnight.

FeersumEnjineeya

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

Why's the price at £60.80 / MWH - with wind power near a record high you'd hope that'd force it (At least for now) down cheap, cheap cheap but the price is still much higher than the average was in 2020.

That's not near a record high. That's barely 75% of the record high.

https://renews.biz/90294/uk-sets-wind-energy-record/

But yes, I do take your point. I suspect as much as any other reason it's because the payments system for power generation is an embarrassing mess.

I might be oversimplifying, but doesn't it boil down to "as long as any gas is being burnt, that sets the price of everything"?

In which case, is there a Janet and John version of why that model was chosen?

I guess it's because gas is the main dispatchable (if that's the right word) source of energy.

Edit: If say, demand rises a bit, pretty much the only way you can meet that demand is by increasing gas generation. So gas generation sets the price.

Edit: Well, not the only way, but the main way.

Taz

Carnyx said:

Taz said:

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

The banks haven't been that great, it must be said. The delays in bringing in checking of the destination account and name were very telling (!). But either way somerthing to know about.

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

I had one where someone managed to spend 2.99 GBP on my Amazon account. Spotted the and rang them. They said it was a scam and they used a small amount first hoping it was not noticed. Then they’d spend big,after a few days,

Did you get an email notification of the order, as with a normal order?

I got a text message from my bank which alerted me to it.

GIN1138

QTWTAIN?

Oh and good morning PB. Lets hope we all survive Storm Bert 🙏

Foxy

Personally I wouldn't buy a JLR vehicle as they seem way overpriced, bloated in design and not very well made. I can see their market is the generation of John Prescott and my Dad though so they do need younger customers. Too radical of rebrand fails to convince and just annoys their older shrinking market.

I wouldn't cheerlead their demise like Farage and CR though as 11 000 British jobs and more in the supply chain depend on their revamping working.

Foxy

Taz said:

Carnyx said:

Taz said:

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

The banks haven't been that great, it must be said. The delays in bringing in checking of the destination account and name were very telling (!). But either way somerthing to know about.

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

I had one where someone managed to spend 2.99 GBP on my Amazon account. Spotted the and rang them. They said it was a scam and they used a small amount first hoping it was not noticed. Then they’d spend big,after a few days,

Did you get an email notification of the order, as with a normal order?

I got a text message from my bank which alerted me to it.

Santander are very good at this in my experience. I have been contacted a number of times by them wanting to talk to me about payments that they have frozen, most recently for a payment to Zambia by international transfer (Mrs Foxy wants to revisit her childhood home for her 60th birthday).

Like airport security it is a hassle and inconvenience but one that I don't complain about. I am glad that banks are vigilant about such transactions.

mwadams

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

There's no way I would vote for a Conservative party with Farage in it.

There's virtually no way you would vote for a Conservative party with Farage not in it either

LOL. No. Before the party lost its head and voted Boris in, I voted Conservative more often than not. Including when New Labour was in power. I'm willing to give Badenoch a chance, although I was not impressed before she became LOTO.

Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"

It remains fascinating that habitual/frequent Conservative voters are told they are not required. Some new pool of voters will be found that will propel the Party to the electoral successes of the 20th Century. (Likewise those, fewer in number, who see Labour's whopper of a majority as 'too big to deprived them of office' at the next election.)

The voters seem to have other ideas.

CharlieShark

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/22/transgender-police-allowed-strip-search-women-new-guidance/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1732308411

Actual state sanctioned sexual assault on women by men. Also forcing women to change and shower with men.

With every vile policy like this, he can add a % or two. Someone yesterday questioned about the trans lobby having captured the police. Can't believe they questioned it.

Badenoch and Farage will gain a % or two every time this happens.

Eabhal

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

21.56GW of wind - the record is 21.81GW.

DavidL

Foxy said:

Personally I wouldn't buy a JLR vehicle as they seem way overpriced, bloated in design and not very well made. I can see their market is the generation of John Prescott and my Dad though so they do need younger customers. Too radical of rebrand fails to convince and just annoys their older shrinking market.

I wouldn't cheerlead their demise like Farage and CR though as 11 000 British jobs and more in the supply chain depend on their revamping working.

As I have said before I have really enjoyed by Jaguar XF. I got it nearly new at a very substantial discount (almost 50%, not sure why) which has made it very good value. Its not easy to park. Servicing charges are at the higher end although not much worse than the Audis I had before. There is no way I am going to afford to buy another one though, certainly not at the price of a new one. I suspect I will be running this one into the deck.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

Personally I wouldn't buy a JLR vehicle as they seem way overpriced, bloated in design and not very well made. I can see their market is the generation of John Prescott and my Dad though so they do need younger customers. Too radical of rebrand fails to convince and just annoys their older shrinking market.

I wouldn't cheerlead their demise like Farage and CR though as 11 000 British jobs and more in the supply chain depend on their revamping working.

Would be bad for Cannock and Wolverhampton given how many jobs depend on their plant at i54.w

carnforth

Foxy said:

Personally I wouldn't buy a JLR vehicle as they seem way overpriced, bloated in design and not very well made. I can see their market is the generation of John Prescott and my Dad though so they do need younger customers. Too radical of rebrand fails to convince and just annoys their older shrinking market.

I wouldn't cheerlead their demise like Farage and CR though as 11 000 British jobs and more in the supply chain depend on their revamping working.

Often in recent decades Land Rover has made big profits while Jaguar lost money. Jaguar alone being put out of its misery might improve JLR long term.

Casino_Royale

Luckyguy1983 said:

On topic, why would Farage want to lead the Tories? It is already a 50/50 toss up who will lead the forthcoming Tory-Reform administration. Reform could be running Wales soon. Kemi is going to have to be brilliant and make the most of all her opportunities not to see the Tories go the way of the Liberals.

I agree, I'd say there's a real risk the Tories become the UUP to Reform's DUP.

However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.

DavidL

Eabhal said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

21.56GW of wind - the record is 21.81GW.

Massive change from the last few weeks where the High pressure area meant the windmills were barely turning.

Casino_Royale

CharlieShark said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/22/transgender-police-allowed-strip-search-women-new-guidance/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1732308411

Actual state sanctioned sexual assault on women by men. Also forcing women to change and shower with men.

With every vile policy like this, he can add a % or two. Someone yesterday questioned about the trans lobby having captured the police. Can't believe they questioned it.

Badenoch and Farage will gain a % or two every time this happens.

The lobby have captured almost every institution because they all crave the Stonewall ratings on 'best employer's to work for', which means you need to deliver to their agenda, and, inside the organisation, demonstrating your commitment to "Diversity" is the only way you can advance your career.

It's a Stage 3 or even Stage 4 tumour and only radical radiotherapy will cure it.

ydoethur

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

OT but something one needs to know: not only are banks sometimes imposing an upper limit on scam refunds, many are now bringing in an £100 excess deduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims

I think there has to be at least a small element of personal responsibility for where you send your money. As long as the bank didn’t do anything wrong, why should they have to pay for your mistake?

I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?

Easier to get many, many more people to fall for it, yielding a much higher return.

I'm currently getting dozens of emails from 'Evri' demanding £2,50 to deliver an unspecified 'parcel.'

Not sure whether they're hoping thousands of people fall for it or whether it's a Trojan horse to hack my card if I fall for it.

I can't help feeling they'd have more chance of fooling people if they didn't send three emails from different addresses within a minute of each other, but I'm assuming they use some kind of AI.

ydoethur

Eabhal said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

21.56GW of wind - the record is 21.81GW.

15.69 according to this:

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Eabhal

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Looks utterly miserable outside. Bring back the cold !

At least the grid is having a good day. 15.45 GW or 58% of demand, including 1.26 being used for pumping water back up in pumped storage.

21.56GW of wind - the record is 21.81GW.

Massive change from the last few weeks where the High pressure area meant the windmills were barely turning.

Over the past week wind provided 33.4% of our energy, higher than the average for the last 12 months (31.1%).

Casino_Royale

Jonathan said:

fitalass said:

Jonathan said:

Is Badenoch better suited to be Reform leader? Perhaps they could swap.

If you have to ask that question, then you don't get Kemi Badenoch or chances her chances of staying the course as Conservative leader until the next GE. She gave a very good speech at the Farmers protest in London, she was totally on top her brief when it came to understanding and articulating the wider long term issues surrounding this terrible Labour tax policy for the farming community, far more so than Nigel Farage or even Jeremy Clarkson on the day.

Not impressed. Badenoch backed government spending, but immediately attacks any way to pay for it. That’s not opposition, that’s empty protest and a dead end for her and her party.

She comes across as a tribal comfort zone politician, somewhere between Miliband and Corbyn. Maybe that’s what the Tories need right now.

Policies like taxing landowners farmers and putting VAT on private schools haven't been implemented to raise revenue, because they don't, they've been done to appeal to Labour's base.