The Chancer of the Exchequer – politicalbetting.com

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Price increases in Russia this year 📈

• Potatoes: +73%
• Butter: +30%
• Inflation: +64%
• Mortgage rates: 28%
• Interest rates: 21%
https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1858544729979601069

The experience of the US election says Putin stands no chance of being re-elected with inflation like that...

I suspect that he will buck the trend of incumbent leaders getting a pasting at the next election.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Reeves embellishing her cv is here nor there, the impact of her budget decisions are the big concern.

Well if she doesn't know what the hell she's doing, that could directly impact her budget decisions?

Most chancellors in past 20 years have had bugger all relevant experience....oh i see your point now.

Best Chancellor in the last 30 years was a lawyer which I feel is no coincidence.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scoop from @joncraig- A politician and a close protection guard are among those the Gambling Commission is looking to prosecute over bets placed on the date of the election

A source has said at least three - and as many as five - people may be charged

https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1858578009038455296

The police dropped the matter? What authority does the gambling commission have to "prosecute"?

MustaphaMondeo said:

The end of Sure Start was in the name of less government.

80% of council spending being on children’s services is not unknown some 15 years later.

I’m hoping that may give us pause about the usefulness of small government.

Roger said:

The suggestion by Michael Crick that she should resign is laughable. Focus pullers in the film business have been 'borrowing' ads forever so they could get a break working as a cameraman. Some I know have become super successful. It would be a bit harsh asking Ridley Scotts DOP to resign after lighting 'Gladiator' because he exaggerated his part in a Renault commercial

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

The suggestion by Michael Crick that she should resign is laughable. Focus pullers in the film business have been 'borrowing' ads forever so they could get a break working as a cameraman. Some I know have become super successful. It would be a bit harsh asking Ridley Scotts DOP to resign after lighting 'Gladiator' because he exaggerated his part in a Renault commercial

Shocking news that the entertainment industry is full of liars and bullshitters....

Foxy said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

The end of Sure Start was in the name of less government.

80% of council spending being on children’s services is not unknown some 15 years later.

I’m hoping that may give us pause about the usefulness of small government.

Shocking figures on child poverty today too.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/nov/18/more-than-one-in-three-uk-children-poverty-deprivation-record-high?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Foxy said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

boulay said:

SonofContrarian said:

There was a 🎄 tree visible in the Sky newsroom..surely not? 🤔🥴

I’ve noticed a tragically large number in houses as I pass. One house with three trees on show with those triangular candalabras in each visible window.

We urgently need to invent a new festival between Halloween and Christmas to hold off the nutters a bit longer.

Thanksgiving!

Look, if it the UK is going to start celebrating the massacre of Indians surely the 13th of April is more apt.

With General Dyer on top of the tree? Oh I do hope not.

Well he should have been hanging somewhere else.

I read a book about the affair many years ago as a random find in a bookshop. What I remember most of all, apart of course from its demonstration of the benevolence of the British empire alongside railways etc., was the indignation in Cheltenham etc. that people should dare to complain.

But there was outrage in the Commons led by Churchill.

However we may dwell upon the difficulties of General Dyer…one tremendous fact stands out. I mean the slaughter of nearly 400 persons and the wounding of probably three or four times as many…. That is an episode which appears to me to be without precedent or parallel in the modern history of the British Empire. It is an event of an entirely different order from any of those tragical occurrences which take place when troops are brought into collision with the civil population. It is an extraordinary event, a monstrous event, an event which stands in singular and sinister isolation.

General Dyer was, of course, a Pakistani.

Slightly ahistorical, and as the Duke of Wellington reputably said in response to being described as Irish. "Just because a man is born in a stable doesn't make him a horse".

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

The suggestion by Michael Crick that she should resign is laughable. Focus pullers in the film business have been 'borrowing' ads forever so they could get a break working as a cameraman. Some I know have become super successful. It would be a bit harsh asking Ridley Scotts DOP to resign after lighting 'Gladiator' because he exaggerated his part in a Renault commercial

Shocking news that the entertainment industry is full of liars and bullshitters....

Malmesbury said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scoop from @joncraig- A politician and a close protection guard are among those the Gambling Commission is looking to prosecute over bets placed on the date of the election

A source has said at least three - and as many as five - people may be charged

https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1858578009038455296

The police dropped the matter? What authority does the gambling commission have to "prosecute"?

Under Section 42 of the Gambling Act of 2005.

In addition, there is no such thing as "authority to prosecute" - anyone can bring a prosecution, for anything.

The CPS customarily does it, but they don't have the sole right to initiate prosecutions.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Telegraph has a series of photos from the G20 meeting in Rio and one of them is of security at the meeting. I have to ask, in the picture below, what the hell is the guy carrying? He is holding it like it is a gun with his finger on the trigger but it doesn't look like any weapon I have seen before.

Anti-drone jamming device.

https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-tactical

Looks like you need to have done some serious work at the gym in order to operate it.

Phil said:

Malmesbury said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scoop from @joncraig- A politician and a close protection guard are among those the Gambling Commission is looking to prosecute over bets placed on the date of the election

A source has said at least three - and as many as five - people may be charged

https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1858578009038455296

The police dropped the matter? What authority does the gambling commission have to "prosecute"?

Under Section 42 of the Gambling Act of 2005.

In addition, there is no such thing as "authority to prosecute" - anyone can bring a prosecution, for anything.

The CPS customarily does it, but they don't have the sole right to initiate prosecutions.

IIRC the does have the power to take over a non-CPS prosecution & then shut it down if they so choose? So the CPS has the ultimate say on whether a prosecution gets to court or not.

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

When this story first broke, I didn't think it was particularly big. Big banks have a surprising number of economists, and they don't all work in the economics department. (There's a lot of microeconomics in most firms operations: we do a huge amount of work on price elasticity of demand, for example.)

However, as time as gone on, I've gotten more and more sceptical of her answers. If she was working as an economist, even in the customer complaints department, then fine. But if she was working in a different role - like supervising staff, then it's another matter altogether. One is her telling the truth ("I was an economist at Halifax"), even if she may have allowed people to come to the wrong conclusions. The other is a lie.

If she lied, then she should not be Chancellor of the Exchequer. Like with Presidents and Prime Ministers, our public servants need to consistently demonstrate the highest standards of honesty. And if she has show to have not, then SKS needs to let her go.

Political leaders having to resign for lying?

There won't be many left, and the few who do survive the cull will be insufferable prigs.

Right, because that's exactly what you'd be saying were this a Tory.

No, as I have stated many times, I never call for people to resign or to be sacked. My only exception is Leicester City managers.

In my many post you won't see me calling for Tory resignations either.

I am very tolerant of old tweets and social media too.

williamglenn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Telegraph has a series of photos from the G20 meeting in Rio and one of them is of security at the meeting. I have to ask, in the picture below, what the hell is the guy carrying? He is holding it like it is a gun with his finger on the trigger but it doesn't look like any weapon I have seen before.

Anti-drone jamming device.

https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-tactical

Looks like you need to have done some serious work at the gym in order to operate it.

According to the link it weighs 7.3kg.

Chris said:

To be fair, Andrea Leadsom probably only got away with it because of her status as the discoverer of penicillin.

boulay said:

Chris said:

To be fair, Andrea Leadsom probably only got away with it because of her status as the discoverer of penicillin.

And she was the inventor of motherhood.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

I could not write a wholly accurate cv as I genuinely cannot remember where and when I worked early on.

Flatlander said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Telegraph has a series of photos from the G20 meeting in Rio and one of them is of security at the meeting. I have to ask, in the picture below, what the hell is the guy carrying? He is holding it like it is a gun with his finger on the trigger but it doesn't look like any weapon I have seen before.

Anti-drone jamming device.

https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-tactical

Any self respecting terrorist has pre-programmed the flight.

Malmesbury said:

Flatlander said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Telegraph has a series of photos from the G20 meeting in Rio and one of them is of security at the meeting. I have to ask, in the picture below, what the hell is the guy carrying? He is holding it like it is a gun with his finger on the trigger but it doesn't look like any weapon I have seen before.

Anti-drone jamming device.

https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-tactical

Any self respecting terrorist has pre-programmed the flight.

Have you ever watched https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107709/

They solve the same problem.

Casino_Royale said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

The suggestion by Michael Crick that she should resign is laughable. Focus pullers in the film business have been 'borrowing' ads forever so they could get a break working as a cameraman. Some I know have become super successful. It would be a bit harsh asking Ridley Scotts DOP to resign after lighting 'Gladiator' because he exaggerated his part in a Renault commercial

Shocking news that the entertainment industry is full of liars and bullshitters....

CV embellishment nowadays though is an inevitable consequence of shitty HR practices.

The sort of practices that demand 4 years of experience for an entry level job, or 10 years of a skill that didn't exist 5 years ago.

Plus the fact that it's all run through AI now before it ever reaches a human being, means you have to keyword stuff a CV like an old-timey SEO optimised web-page. I'm good with Spreadsheets, Microsoft Excel, Tables, Functions, Charts, Cell Editing, VBA scripting for Excel, Pivot Tables etc.

And if your job description doesn't PERFECTLY match the one you're applying for, you have to bend your previous job title (and keyword stuff accordingly) or you'll be rejected out of hand by the ATS before a human ever looks at your CV.

Instead of sending off a CV and cover letter to a real person who reads it, you now have a convoluted process that requires you to game the system just to get in front of a real person.

I've got through my career without lying on my CV.

But it's also the case that almost all the jobs I've got have been through personal reference/word of mouth, where they look at the CV after, not before.

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

When this story first broke, I didn't think it was particularly big. Big banks have a surprising number of economists, and they don't all work in the economics department. (There's a lot of microeconomics in most firms operations: we do a huge amount of work on price elasticity of demand, for example.)

However, as time as gone on, I've gotten more and more sceptical of her answers. If she was working as an economist, even in the customer complaints department, then fine. But if she was working in a different role - like supervising staff, then it's another matter altogether. One is her telling the truth ("I was an economist at Halifax"), even if she may have allowed people to come to the wrong conclusions. The other is a lie.

If she lied, then she should not be Chancellor of the Exchequer. Like with Presidents and Prime Ministers, our public servants need to consistently demonstrate the highest standards of honesty. And if she has show to have not, then SKS needs to let her go.

Political leaders having to resign for lying?

There won't be many left, and the few who do survive the cull will be insufferable prigs.

Right, because that's exactly what you'd be saying were this a Tory.

No, as I have stated many times, I never call for people to resign or to be sacked. My only exception is Leicester City managers.

In my many post you won't see me calling for Tory resignations either.

I am very tolerant of old tweets and social media too.

Absolute bollocks

Peter_the_Punter said:

Carnyx said:

carnforth said:

From the Thatcher auction linked above. I've looked up all the words and, no, still no idea.

Gombeen man = shady businessman wanting to be bribed by Heath, who has a whacking headache after drinking the koolaid poitin of talks with the Nationalists (and by implication the IRA), at Sunningdale, Berks. (Civil Service College),. which makes it 1973, I think. Or is that too early for Mrs T?

While Mrs T, Rev Paisley and someone I don't recognise - Mr Hume of the SDLP, or Mr Cosgrove the Taoiseach? - look on in consternation.

Edit: cxould be Barbara Castle.

Who is the cartoonist? It looks a bit like Cummings, but it's a bit too intelligent for him.

Flatlander said:

Malmesbury said:

Flatlander said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Telegraph has a series of photos from the G20 meeting in Rio and one of them is of security at the meeting. I have to ask, in the picture below, what the hell is the guy carrying? He is holding it like it is a gun with his finger on the trigger but it doesn't look like any weapon I have seen before.

Anti-drone jamming device.

https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-tactical

Any self respecting terrorist has pre-programmed the flight.

Have you ever watched https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107709/

They solve the same problem.

I haven't. Maybe I should put it on the list...

kyf_100 said:

Casino_Royale said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

The suggestion by Michael Crick that she should resign is laughable. Focus pullers in the film business have been 'borrowing' ads forever so they could get a break working as a cameraman. Some I know have become super successful. It would be a bit harsh asking Ridley Scotts DOP to resign after lighting 'Gladiator' because he exaggerated his part in a Renault commercial

Shocking news that the entertainment industry is full of liars and bullshitters....

CV embellishment nowadays though is an inevitable consequence of shitty HR practices.

The sort of practices that demand 4 years of experience for an entry level job, or 10 years of a skill that didn't exist 5 years ago.

Plus the fact that it's all run through AI now before it ever reaches a human being, means you have to keyword stuff a CV like an old-timey SEO optimised web-page. I'm good with Spreadsheets, Microsoft Excel, Tables, Functions, Charts, Cell Editing, VBA scripting for Excel, Pivot Tables etc.

And if your job description doesn't PERFECTLY match the one you're applying for, you have to bend your previous job title (and keyword stuff accordingly) or you'll be rejected out of hand by the ATS before a human ever looks at your CV.

Instead of sending off a CV and cover letter to a real person who reads it, you now have a convoluted process that requires you to game the system just to get in front of a real person.

I've got through my career without lying on my CV.

But it's also the case that almost all the jobs I've got have been through personal reference/word of mouth, where they look at the CV after, not before.

Indeed. It is now utterly impossible to get through the ATS (automated tracking system) without gaming the system. There are now legions of consultants and CV re-writers who are paid top dollar to do this on your behalf. Essentially it's a form of SEO, and is also most necessary at the start of your career (when you're applying without a reputation in the industry or a senior job title).

I don't envy anyone starting out their careers now. Between the ridiculously convoluted ATS + HR screening rounds + competency tests (and random 'gamified' personality tests') plus 'video interviews' where the questions are pre-written and you have to record yourself giving the answer, it sucks to be a grad these days. Then when you finally get a job, there's no-one to mentor you because senior management is always WFH.

Malmesbury said:

stodge said:

My second series of thoughts while relaxing on the country estate were on Donald Trump. Notwithstanding his victory, about which I'm fairly ambivalent I'm intrigued by the concept of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The argument from some of his supporters - and it would likely resonate with some, if not many, here is we have too much Government and we could manage perfectly well with a lot less.

I suspect this will be an area which Badenoch will seek to develop in Conservative policy making as we move through this Parliament. She may well argue the problem is with Government itself rather than the party in power and there's so much more scope for savings once we've established what kind of Government (or State) we want and need.

The relationship between the Government and the individual citizen is very different in the UK than either the US or Europe and we could create our own bespoke "contract" (not the best word) between Government and governed. I often hear from some on here bemoaning the inability of projects to proceed at speed but there is a balance to be struck between individual citizens and the needs of the wider country.

As we heard from two legendary characters do the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few (or the one) or is there a more complex relationship at work?

Rather as a doctor once asked about love, I'm wondering what is Government? What should it be and why isn't it that now?

The problem is that real efficiency and real productivity is not interesting.

What I would do, is create internal units, within departments whose job is to improve systems and streamline process. You'd see, over years, reductions in costs. A few percent a year, maybe. Depending on the level of investment and how aggressive you'd be.

This would be a permanent prat of the government structure.

So why is no one interested?

1) 5 year political cycle. If you started on day 1, you might or might not save more than you spent before the next election. Most likely, your opponent would run on ripping it out, saving money and jeering at your "waste"
2) You are looking at permanent loss of jobs. 99% of the work of the DVLA, for example, should be completely automated. That'll be popular in Swansea.

The other area to look at is contracts, how they are run and the costs. We have reached the stage where adding years and billions, almost arbitrarily is assumed to be fine. Hence spending 100 million to save every singe bat. A stupid price for a stupid requirement.

For this, we need -

- Requirements culling. Sometime the best part is no part. In the case of the Bat Cage, the requirement is wrong. We don't don't spend infinite money on saving human lives. Indeed, we put a cost on saving human life in projects. How much should a bat cost.
- Cost control. This is closely related to the requirements. If something is costing £100,000 a meter, someone needs to ask WTAF.

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

The end of Sure Start was in the name of less government.

80% of council spending being on children’s services is not unknown some 15 years later.

I’m hoping that may give us pause about the usefulness of small government.

Shocking figures on child poverty today too.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/nov/18/more-than-one-in-three-uk-children-poverty-deprivation-record-high?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I assume that's "relative" poverty?

If you click on the link you might find out.

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

The end of Sure Start was in the name of less government.

80% of council spending being on children’s services is not unknown some 15 years later.

I’m hoping that may give us pause about the usefulness of small government.

Shocking figures on child poverty today too.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/nov/18/more-than-one-in-three-uk-children-poverty-deprivation-record-high?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I assume that's "relative" poverty?

If you click on the link you might find out.

If it is, the link ain't worth clicking.

Leon said:

Am I the only PBer who has never had to write a proper CV? Never done a job that required one. Never been asked to submit one

It would be quite colourful tho

1992: jail, mainly
1993: haven’t got a fucking clue
1994-2001: heroin
2002-2005: see 1993

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Telegraph has a series of photos from the G20 meeting in Rio and one of them is of security at the meeting. I have to ask, in the picture below, what the hell is the guy carrying? He is holding it like it is a gun with his finger on the trigger but it doesn't look like any weapon I have seen before.

Anti-drone jamming device.

https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-tactical

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

Am I the only PBer who has never had to write a proper CV? Never done a job that required one. Never been asked to submit one

It would be quite colourful tho

1992: jail, mainly
1993: haven’t got a fucking clue
1994-2001: heroin
2002-2005: see 1993

Sounds more like an improper CV.

Carnyx said:

carnforth said:

From the Thatcher auction linked above. I've looked up all the words and, no, still no idea.

Gombeen man = shady businessman wanting to be bribed by Heath, who has a whacking headache after drinking the koolaid poitin of talks with the Nationalists (and by implication the IRA), at Sunningdale, Berks. (Civil Service College),. which makes it 1973, I think. Or is that too early for Mrs T?

While Mrs T, Rev Paisley and someone I don't recognise - Mr Hume of the SDLP, or Mr Cosgrove the Taoiseach? - look on in consternation.

Edit: cxould be Barbara Castle.

Casino_Royale said:

Roger said:

The suggestion by Michael Crick that she should resign is laughable. Focus pullers in the film business have been 'borrowing' ads forever so they could get a break working as a cameraman. Some I know have become super successful. It would be a bit harsh asking Ridley Scotts DOP to resign after lighting 'Gladiator' because he exaggerated his part in a Renault commercial

Oh fuck, she's in real trouble.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Carnyx said:

carnforth said:

From the Thatcher auction linked above. I've looked up all the words and, no, still no idea.

Gombeen man = shady businessman wanting to be bribed by Heath, who has a whacking headache after drinking the koolaid poitin of talks with the Nationalists (and by implication the IRA), at Sunningdale, Berks. (Civil Service College),. which makes it 1973, I think. Or is that too early for Mrs T?

While Mrs T, Rev Paisley and someone I don't recognise - Mr Hume of the SDLP, or Mr Cosgrove the Taoiseach? - look on in consternation.

Edit: cxould be Barbara Castle.

Jim Prior not Ted Heath, I think. Prior was Mrs T's Northern Ireland Secretary.

ETA scooped by viewcode!

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

Am I the only PBer who has never had to write a proper CV? Never done a job that required one. Never been asked to submit one

It would be quite colourful tho

1992: jail, mainly
1993: haven’t got a fucking clue
1994-2001: heroin
2002-2005: see 1993

Me. Every job I have ever got has been on the basis of personal recommendation. I do have a CV which I keep updated just in case but have never actually had to use it

Driver said:

Eabhal said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

The end of Sure Start was in the name of less government.

80% of council spending being on children’s services is not unknown some 15 years later.

I’m hoping that may give us pause about the usefulness of small government.

Shocking figures on child poverty today too.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/nov/18/more-than-one-in-three-uk-children-poverty-deprivation-record-high?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I assume that's "relative" poverty?

If you click on the link you might find out.

If it is, the link ain't worth clicking.

It's not.

It's actually a rather interesting new measure, adopted by the Conservatives and causing a headache for poverty analysts everywhere.

It is interesting but it still looks like a relative measure ("below average")?

rottenborough said:

Bridget Phillipson looked suspiciously well dressed in Commons this afternoon.

I'm just asking questions as they say.

rottenborough said:

Bridget Phillipson looked suspiciously well dressed in Commons this afternoon.

I'm just asking questions as they say.

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

Bridget Phillipson looked suspiciously well dressed in Commons this afternoon.

I'm just asking questions as they say.

The slightly perturbing implication of that comment is that she normally looks remarkably undressed.

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

Am I the only PBer who has never had to write a proper CV? Never done a job that required one. Never been asked to submit one

It would be quite colourful tho

1992: jail, mainly
1993: haven’t got a fucking clue
1994-2001: heroin
2002-2005: see 1993

Me. Every job I have ever got has been on the basis of personal recommendation. I do have a CV which I keep updated just in case but have never actually had to use it

Admirable

TheScreamingEagles said:

Post Office Horizon Scandal: Four suspects identified by police

Offences being considered by police against individuals include perjury and perverting the course of justice, sources tell Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/post-office-horizon-scandal-four-suspects-identified-by-police-13256357

Alphabet_Soup said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

Am I the only PBer who has never had to write a proper CV? Never done a job that required one. Never been asked to submit one

It would be quite colourful tho

1992: jail, mainly
1993: haven’t got a fucking clue
1994-2001: heroin
2002-2005: see 1993

Me. Every job I have ever got has been on the basis of personal recommendation. I do have a CV which I keep updated just in case but have never actually had to use it

Admirable

For 50 years I've scratched a living on the outer fringes of publishing and have been, in no particular order, printer, publisher, photographer, designer, writer, editor, web designer and delivery boy. If any of these roles had demanded a CV it would have confirmed the fact that I was qualified for none of them.