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This is how polls should be reported – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pulpstar said:

    No, it was definitely required - the main thing which means people don't need licenses is the fact it's essentially unenforceable unless people self incriminate when the license people turn up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvkWGs8nw60 sums it up well.
    Yup, I know all that, but live streaming has got so many nuances that TV Licencing have never caught up.
    TV licencing will tell you you need a licence for loads of things. A decent Barrister would get you off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    MaxPB said:

    The audience for that won't be anywhere near as big. This was easily one of the biggest global streaming events. All other companies don't usually have global rights and only need to serve one or two territories or like F1TV it's just not as popular or has a premium fee. This was available to all Netflix subscribers across the world, that's a potential ~250m viewers who could watch what would normally be a £50-60 PPV. Netflix hugely underestimated demand, they used their water pistol instead of the firehouse that YouTube has.
    30 million is a fairly normal amount to watch the Christmas day NFL game in the US even without Beyonce doing her thing. Now that won't be the 60 million that supposed try to watch the fight on Saturday, but still a huge number of people.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    I don’t think we're alone - pretty sure England has some too no? But of course I speak of the US kind. I hadn't thought of giving them pistols but the idea is tempting.
    In England these days I think we have High Sheriffs, who are a ceremonial official representing the monarch, like Lord Lieutenants.

    In Scotland they are a legal official analogous to I think a District Judge in England.

    I'm never quite sure what a Justice of the Peace is, except they sometimes emerge to do things. The last I heard of one was when a well-connected friend wanted to put up a notice withdrawing the common law right of some officials to enter his property.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I'm fairly sure I've seen conference talks on YouTube with claims of 30 million for IPL.
    Focused in a single country and not at 4k for over half of users. IPL is very impressive but Netflix are looking for a different scale, global live streaming with a similar 20ms delay everywhere for 60m users. I think only YouTube comes close and they have the power of Google/GCP behind them to achieve that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    30 million is a fairly normal amount to watch the Christmas day NFL game in the US even without Beyonce doing her thing. Now that won't be the 60 million that supposed try to watch the fight on Saturday, but still a huge number of people.
    But that's still just in a single country with probably just a few CDNs. I can't imagine what Netflix would actually need for this and whether they might just call it a day with these kinds of global live streams.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,757

    You are supposed to have someone at the foot of the ladder to steady it. The number of people who don’t know that….
    Get a decent ladder with bracing at the base - and/or fix it in at the top so it can't slip.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709

    I love a good dump.




    Lloyds Bank accused of swamping car finance lawyers with truckloads of post

    Courmacs Legal claims lender sent ‘tens of thousands’ of letters daily to stop compensation claims


    Lloyds Bank has been accused of “swamping” lawyers with truckloads of post to stop them claiming compensation for drivers in the car finance mis-selling scandal.

    Courmacs Legal claimed it was receiving “tens of thousands” of legal letters every day from the bank’s finance arm, Black Horse, which other lenders instead send electronically.

    Darren Smith, the managing director of Courmacs Legal, said: “We receive cages of post. We’ve gone from having the conventional post van that arrives at your house to a large transit van.

    “We now get our post delivered by a truck from the Post Office because they are trying to swamp us out with post.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/18/lloyds-bank-swamping-car-finance-lawyers-truckloads-post/

    Lloyds sent me a letter yesterday confirming I had such a finance agreement. But the form for getting compensation requires me to fill in long-form answers on why I deserve it. Going to hold off for now and wait in the hope that the legal system forces them to make it much simpler and almost automatic.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    MaxPB said:

    But that's still just in a single country with probably just a few CDNs. I can't imagine what Netflix would actually need for this and whether they might just call it a day with these kinds of global live streams.
    At the moment we are at a cross roads in sports streaming. There is a fragmented landscape of certain sports having really leaned into their own streaming platforms, while other sports are still very much still built solely around the traditional model of selling the rights to linear tv.

    So far Amazon have only really dipped their toes in the water and the product they produce has been substandard. Not sure what Netflix game plan is with this one-off event and then the odd random sports-ball match.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    carnforth said:

    Lloyds sent me a letter yesterday confirming I had such a finance agreement. But the form for getting compensation requires me to fill in long-form answers on why I deserve it. Going to hold off for now and wait in the hope that the legal system forces them to make it much simpler and almost automatic.
    That is really straightforward - just reference Wood v Commercial First Business Ltd and Others which is the original court case that this all stems from..
  • I love a good dump.




    Lloyds Bank accused of swamping car finance lawyers with truckloads of post

    Courmacs Legal claims lender sent ‘tens of thousands’ of letters daily to stop compensation claims


    Lloyds Bank has been accused of “swamping” lawyers with truckloads of post to stop them claiming compensation for drivers in the car finance mis-selling scandal.

    Courmacs Legal claimed it was receiving “tens of thousands” of legal letters every day from the bank’s finance arm, Black Horse, which other lenders instead send electronically.

    Darren Smith, the managing director of Courmacs Legal, said: “We receive cages of post. We’ve gone from having the conventional post van that arrives at your house to a large transit van.

    “We now get our post delivered by a truck from the Post Office because they are trying to swamp us out with post.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/18/lloyds-bank-swamping-car-finance-lawyers-truckloads-post/

    Ed Miliband will be incensed at all the trees that had to be cut down....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited November 2024

    Ed Miliband will be incensed at all the trees that had to be cut down....
    If the paper is buried - preferably in a salt mine - I think that counts as carbon capture?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,509
    MaxPB said:



    So on balance I'd take anyone over Rachel Reeves. Even with the lack of talent on the Labour front bench, I'd rather someone who didn't have a frankly dangerous view of his/her own competence and experience.

    You've never worked in government I take it? I have, and most ministers I worked for had frankly dangerous views of their own competence and experience. From what I've seen, Reeves isn't particularly exceptional in that way.

    The ones that didn't were the ones who never cared about the issues they were supposed to be in charge of, and only ever asked you in a panicked way five minutes before a TV interview "What am I supposed to say about this?" They were the ones Sir Humphrey would have loved - the ones who let the civil service run itself.
  • Fishing said:

    You've never worked in government I take it? I have, and most ministers I worked for had frankly dangerous views of their own competence and experience. From what I've seen, Reeves isn't particularly exceptional in that way.

    The ones that didn't were the ones who never cared about the issues they were supposed to be in charge of, and only ever asked you in a panicked way five minutes before a TV interview "What am I supposed to say about this?" They were the ones Sir Humphrey would have loved - the ones who let the civil service run itself.
    Dunning Kruger Effect....
  • Also with loads of money you can always deploy enough PR spin to improve your reputation, ask Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg....
    I don't think Bill Gates' reputation ever needed improving.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024

    I don't think Bill Gates' reputation ever needed improving.
    He clearly thought so, as he has spent $100 millions doing so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited November 2024
    Most lefties absolutely loved using Twitter until 2016.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited November 2024

    I remember quite a funny Dave Gorman episode where he looked at YouGov panel. It had some crackers e.g. fans of Little Mix are far more right wing, than fans of Karl Marx are left wing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wa9SpmLJUE
    I enjoyed the Product of the Year, where the organising company makes millions by charging £0 for entering, £4k for being shortlisted, and £18k for winning, across 40+ categories in the UK. Their only expense is paper shuffling, a panel, a not-large survey, and presumably some publicity.

    The reward is you get to display their meaningless trademarked logo.

    https://youtu.be/3wa9SpmLJUE?t=1824

    The (imo) scam continues:

    https://www.productoftheyear.co.uk/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    MattW said:

    I enjoyed the Product of the Year, where the organising company makes millions by charging £0 for entering, £4k for being shortlisted, and £18k for winning, across 40+ categories in the UK. Their only expense is paper shuffling, a panel, a not-large survey, and presumably some publicity.

    The reward is you get to display their meaningless trademarked logo.

    https://youtu.be/3wa9SpmLJUE?t=1824

    The (imo) scam continues:

    https://www.productoftheyear.co.uk/
    Its not just the UK, its worldwide from a company based in Belgium....

    https://www.poyworldwide.com/worldwide-presence/

    Nice little earner.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,226
    Nigelb said:

    Get a decent ladder with bracing at the base - and/or fix it in at the top so it can't slip.
    … and the have someone at the bottom as well.

    The number of ladder stories that started with - “I set the ladder up right - square, braced at the foot….”
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    Roger said:

    Long summer evenings overweight and too much Calvados gave him the idea he could fix the roof .... It's that sort of place
    Just the idea of a “long summer evening in Calvados” makes me slightly tearful

    Odd
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Starmer about to sell the country out to China now. He already gave up the Chagos Islands to China, wonder what they'll ask for next?
  • MaxPB said:

    Starmer about to sell the country out to China now. He already gave up the Chagos Islands to China, wonder what they'll ask for next?

    UK paying China compensation over Opium Wars?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited November 2024
    "Nigel Farage holds highest favourability rating in Ipsos poll, but almost half hold unfavourable opinion of Reform UK leader"

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/nigel-farage-holds-highest-favourability-rating-ipsos-poll-almost-half-hold-unfavourable-opinion

    Trump more popular with younger British voters than older ones.

    18-34: Fav 28%, Unfav 48%
    35-54: Fav 28%, Unfav 53%
    55+: Fav 20%, Unfav 69%
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    MaxPB said:

    Starmer about to sell the country out to China now. He already gave up the Chagos Islands to China, wonder what they'll ask for next?

    Do you not think the British PM should meet the Chinese leader?

    The last such occasion was 2019…
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    My theory on Chagos is that it’s a sell-out to *India*, rather than China.
  • UK paying China compensation over Opium Wars?
    They still haven't forgiven us for smuggling Chinese tea plants to India and setting up in competition. That's why they continue to take a relaxed view about western IP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Do you not think the British PM should meet the Chinese leader?

    The last such occasion was 2019…
    Isn't the worry less the meeting, more the way Kier seems to absolutely get done up whenever these meetings happen ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024

    They still haven't forgiven us for smuggling Chinese tea plants to India and setting up in competition. That's why they continue to take a relaxed view about western IP.
    The relaxed view of IP isn't exclusive to western companies. Try being a Chinese tech start-up in China that might disrupt one of the big players bottom line, your IP won't see any protection at all (unless your family member is somebody important in the party).
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited November 2024

    … and the have someone at the bottom as well.

    The number of ladder stories that started with - “I set the ladder up right - square, braced at the foot….”
    I don’t understand this conversation. Aren’t ladders those things the staff* use to get to the guttering? Why should I know how to operate one?

    *Admittedly she prefers to be called “Mrs Biggles”.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nigel Farage holds highest favourability rating in Ipsos poll, but almost half hold unfavourable opinion of Reform UK leader"

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/nigel-farage-holds-highest-favourability-rating-ipsos-poll-almost-half-hold-unfavourable-opinion

    Trump more popular with younger British voters than older ones.

    18-34: Fav 28%, Unfav 48%
    35-54: Fav 28%, Unfav 53%
    55+: Fav 20%, Unfav 69%

    But still very unpopular overall.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    But still very unpopular overall.
    I’d love to have a long chat with the 13% of LibDem voters with a favourable view. I don’t understand that at all.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,720
    Pulpstar said:

    Biden rather than Harris' favourability ratings seem to have been more indicative of the result so we should probably look at Trump's ratings in 2028 rather than Vance.

    Yes. With Trump term-limited, Vance is the obvious continuity candidate. He will be under more focus than many VPs have been from the outset.
  • biggles said:

    I’d love to have a long chat with the 13% of LibDem voters with a favourable view. I don’t understand that at all.
    They liked him because he split the Tory vote in some seats the Lib Dems won.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,838
    ...

    My theory on Chagos is that it’s a sell-out to *India*, rather than China.

    Can you call something a sell out when we're losing a fortune by it? 'Buy out' would seem more accurate.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    They liked him because he split the Tory vote in some seats the Lib Dems won.
    No, Trump. 13% have a favourable view of Trump in that poll. Bonkers.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,692
    FT clearly does not understand the difference between precision and accuracy.

    Polls can provide precision to as many decimal places as you like. But this does not make them more accurate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,854
    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1858507253625635325

    C-Lion1 submarine cable running between Finland and Germany has broken, and its communication connections are cut — Yle
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,720
    Nigelb said:

    As far as the cases are concerned:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2825395
    ..Clinical vignettes were adapted from a landmark study that set the standard for the evaluation of computer-based diagnostic systems. All cases in this study were based on actual patients and included information available on initial diagnostic evaluation, such as history, physical examination, and laboratory test results. The cases have never been publicly released to protect the validity of the test materials for future use, and therefore are excluded from training data of the LLM...

    "Representative samples" here:
    https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jamanetworkopen/939467/zoi241182supp2_prod_1729527081.368.pdf

    It would be interesting to see how it actually performed in a clinical setting, but that sort of trial would take a lot longer.
    Historically, the problem in health informatics is that computer scientists think that diagnosis is the main problem in medicine. A lot of diagnosis is trivially easy. Most doctors don’t spend most of their time on diagnosis. Most of medicine is treatment. Vast amounts of healthcare is dealing with people who have the same condition they’ve had for years, be it diabetes, depression, dementia, back pain, extreme pineapple intolerance, or whatever.

    Diagnosing diabetes is easy. Getting the person with pre-diabetes to take their diagnosis seriously, and to eat better and do more exercise, that’s difficult.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,226

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1858507253625635325

    C-Lion1 submarine cable running between Finland and Germany has broken, and its communication connections are cut — Yle

    If only the government had invested in satellite communications as a backup…
  • biggles said:

    No, Trump. 13% have a favourable view of Trump in that poll. Bonkers.
    Oh that, it’s obvious, his planned policies make joining the EU inevitable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1858507253625635325

    C-Lion1 submarine cable running between Finland and Germany has broken, and its communication connections are cut — Yle

    Do we really need Finland, anyway?
  • MaxPB said:

    Starmer about to sell the country out to China now. He already gave up the Chagos Islands to China, wonder what they'll ask for next?

    Is he like a British Gerhard Schröder?
  • UK paying China compensation over Opium Wars?
    Don't give him ideas.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    edited November 2024
    Finland has always seemed a bit pointless and “extra”. I mean: Iceland is proper fun. Denmark is near and has Lego. Norway is genuinely Nordic - it’s in the name - and Sweden has meatballs, IKEA and ABBA. All good

    But what’s the point of Finland? Just an extra sticky-out bit that exhausts the theme, like that sixth season of House where it all went wrong

    Just call it something else. Like, I dunno, “Russia”. Sorted
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MaxPB said:

    Starmer about to sell the country out to China now. He already gave up the Chagos Islands to China, wonder what they'll ask for next?

    Shein IPO in London, after NY turned them down? A few billion in hard currency heading back to China.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Oh that, it’s obvious, his planned policies make joining the EU inevitable.
    Show your workings. 500 words maximum.

    I do wonder how long it will take until people realise that will never happen again.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    MaxPB said:

    But that's still just in a single country with probably just a few CDNs. I can't imagine what Netflix would actually need for this and whether they might just call it a day with these kinds of global live streams.
    Well Netflix have just doubled down on the Christmas day NFL game. - Beyonce will bring in an audience even if the match doesn't..

    https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3lba2m44ooc2v

    Beyoncé will perform live during halftime of an NFL Christmas Day game on Netflix, the streaming giant announced. It is the first time NFL games will streamed live on its service.

    The star will perform in her hometown of Houston, where the Texans will host the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium.
  • biggles said:

    Show your workings. 500 words maximum.

    I do wonder how long it will take until people realise that will never happen again.
    He pulls out of NATO and/or applies tariffs to the UK.

    He also gives Putin the green light to invade outside of Ukraine.

    An EU/European Army is essential, helping trade will too
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Shein IPO in London, after NY turned them down? A few billion in hard currency heading back to China.
    I presume all the usual types will be outraged about their links to slave trade....and when I say links, I don't mean there is some relative from 300 years ago that was involved, I mean they use cotton produced by Uyghurs slaves (hence why NY won't have them).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    biggles said:

    Show your workings. 500 words maximum.

    I do wonder how long it will take until people realise that will never happen again.
    If Trump follows through on his policies either the UK needs to get a very favourable deal or we will need to shift closure to the EU just to avoid contagion from the tariffs...

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    eek said:

    Well Netflix have just doubled down on the Christmas day NFL game. - Beyonce will bring in an audience even if the match doesn't..

    https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3lba2m44ooc2v

    Beyoncé will perform live during halftime of an NFL Christmas Day game on Netflix, the streaming giant announced. It is the first time NFL games will streamed live on its service.

    The star will perform in her hometown of Houston, where the Texans will host the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium.
    Live on actual Christmas Day? I thought the Americans were more religious than us? Do they have sport on the day itself?
  • Don't give him ideas.
    The Opium Wars were a real high in British History.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822

    Don't give him ideas.
    China is getting “compensation” for the opium wars via the export of Fentanyl and Tranq to urban America
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    eek said:

    If Trump follows through on his policies either the UK needs to get a very favourable deal or we will need to shift closure to the EU just to avoid contagion from the tariffs...

    Yup. Nothing even close to joining the EU.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,838

    He pulls out of NATO and/or applies tariffs to the UK.

    He also gives Putin the green light to invade outside of Ukraine.

    An EU/European Army is essential, helping trade will too
    Ok dear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    biggles said:

    Live on actual Christmas Day? I thought the Americans were more religious than us? Do they have sport on the day itself?
    American's religion is capitalism....it is normal to have big sportsball matches on the big holidays as they get mega audience. 30 million viewers for Christmas day NFL game. Boxing day isn't a thing in US.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    Well Netflix have just doubled down on the Christmas day NFL game. - Beyonce will bring in an audience even if the match doesn't..

    https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3lba2m44ooc2v

    Beyoncé will perform live during halftime of an NFL Christmas Day game on Netflix, the streaming giant announced. It is the first time NFL games will streamed live on its service.

    The star will perform in her hometown of Houston, where the Texans will host the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium.
    Well they’ve got five weeks to sort out their live streaming CDN, at least for the North American market. Might want to test something in Europe for the half time show as well, which will be late evening in that market (roughly 11pm UK time).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,159
    edited November 2024

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1858507253625635325

    C-Lion1 submarine cable running between Finland and Germany has broken, and its communication connections are cut — Yle

    Not good. Scotland is going to become an energy superpower, but we're going to vulnerable to this kind of thing.

    *Scouts the indyref2 battlefield*
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    biggles said:

    Show your workings. 500 words maximum.

    I do wonder how long it will take until people realise that will never happen again.
    When will Rejoiners realise the future EU is going to be hard right?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/18/european-union-right-wing-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-hard-right-parties

    It will be interesting to see how lefty Remainers react to this dawning reality
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited November 2024
    biggles said:

    Live on actual Christmas Day? I thought the Americans were more religious than us? Do they have sport on the day itself?
    Yup! Two matches on Christmas Day, and they’ll get some of the largest TV audiences for regular season games. Will be sold out in the stadia as well.

    https://www.nfl.com/news/beyonce-to-perform-at-halftime-of-ravens-texans-christmas-day-game-streaming-on-netflix
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    edited November 2024

    American's religion is capitalism....it is normal to have big sportsball matches on the big holidays as they get mega audience. 30 million viewers for Christmas day NFL game. Boxing day isn't a thing in US.
    Pretty sure we used to have Christmas Day football in the UK too.

    Edit - just checked - last time was 1965.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    biggles said:

    No, Trump. 13% have a favourable view of Trump in that poll. Bonkers.
    Remember Lib Dems at the height of their rejoin / over-turn the Brexit phase, were still getting a decent number of Brexit voters.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited November 2024

    He pulls out of NATO and/or applies tariffs to the UK.

    He also gives Putin the green light to invade outside of Ukraine.

    An EU/European Army is essential, helping trade will too
    So you can’t show anything of the sort.

    If he pulls out of NATO, the European defence agreement that follows will be built on NATO. It will need multiple members not in the EU.

    That is, of course, not even touching on the fact that Ukraine shows us that western militaries out match his. He couldn’t invade Poland without a humiliating defeat, never mind Europe.

    Nuclear weapons are an issue, but that would make us more essential that ever, alongside the French, in helping to retain a nuclear umbrella; giving us massive leverage. Stick to law - you don’t get defence.

    His tariff policies might or might not push us into a closer trading relationship, necessitating some rule taking, but that has nothing to do with joining the EU.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Leon said:

    When will Rejoiners realise the future EU is going to be hard right?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/18/european-union-right-wing-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-hard-right-parties

    It will be interesting to see how lefty Remainers react to this dawning reality
    The entire world is going to shift right - the immigrants arriving now are only a small number compared to what we will see as global warming really takes effect...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Pretty sure we used to have Christmas Day football in the UK too.

    Edit - just checked - last time was 1965.
    Seems like a great idea. Something just after the King to fall asleep to.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    MattW said:

    In England these days I think we have High Sheriffs, who are a ceremonial official representing the monarch, like Lord Lieutenants.

    In Scotland they are a legal official analogous to I think a District Judge in England.

    I'm never quite sure what a Justice of the Peace is, except they sometimes emerge to do things. The last I heard of one was when a well-connected friend wanted to put up a notice withdrawing the common law right of some officials to enter his property.
    Matt, just for you
    Justice of the Peace courts replaced the previous district courts. In Justice of the Peace courts, lay justices of the peace work with a legally qualified clerk of court who gives advice on law and procedure. Justices of the peace handle minor criminal matters.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    biggles said:

    Seems like a great idea. Something just after the King to fall asleep to.
    Reading up it seemed to have been a thing from the start of league football and often involved back to back home and away ties (often on Christmas Day then Boxing Day). A lot less entertainment in those days of course.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    eek said:

    The entire world is going to shift right - the immigrants arriving now are only a small number compared to what we will see as global warming really takes effect...
    The barbed wire will be up long before that
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    biggles said:

    Yup. Nothing even close to joining the EU.
    A lot closer than we have been.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    malcolmg said:

    Matt, just for you
    Justice of the Peace courts replaced the previous district courts. In Justice of the Peace courts, lay justices of the peace work with a legally qualified clerk of court who gives advice on law and procedure. Justices of the peace handle minor criminal matters.
    What in England would be called the Magistrates’ Court.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    malcolmg said:

    The barbed wire will be up long before that
    It seems likely that the west will redefine what asylum is in the nearish future. We have an odd geographical situation in the UK - the channel provides a decent obstacle to migrants/asylum seekers etc trying to reach us.
    And the number one point that annoys many people (mainly on the right, but they are allowed to have opinions) is that anyone leaving France to try to reach the UK to claim asylum is leaving a safe country.

    It doesn't matter how many times we are reminded that there is no requirement to claim asylum in the first safe country, most people, I think, suspect that anyone not doing so, or at least not doing so in France, is asylum 'shopping' - preferring the hell-hole that is the UK to the paradise of France. And they don't believe that that is how asylum ought to work.

    And we have blurred to lines around asylum/migration so much now that we have forgotten what asylum was originally for.
  • Reading up it seemed to have been a thing from the start of league football and often involved back to back home and away ties (often on Christmas Day then Boxing Day). A lot less entertainment in those days of course.
    Although an echo of it still lives on with Boxing Day games still traditionally being derby fixtures, as was - necessarily - the case back when Christmas Day games were a thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    Leon said:

    Finland has always seemed a bit pointless and “extra”. I mean: Iceland is proper fun. Denmark is near and has Lego. Norway is genuinely Nordic - it’s in the name - and Sweden has meatballs, IKEA and ABBA. All good

    But what’s the point of Finland? Just an extra sticky-out bit that exhausts the theme, like that sixth season of House where it all went wrong

    Just call it something else. Like, I dunno, “Russia”. Sorted

    You’ve either never been to Finland or, much more likely, since it’s your usual modus operandi, just jetted in and out without learning anything whatsoever.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    Leon said:

    When will Rejoiners realise the future EU is going to be hard right?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/18/european-union-right-wing-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-hard-right-parties

    It will be interesting to see how lefty Remainers react to this dawning reality
    Someone flagged this. I take it Remainers don’t like this awkward new fact
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    UK consumer confidence has fallen this month, as households grow gloomier about their financial prospects.

    The latest poll of consumer sentiment, just released by data firm S&P Global, shows that households reported that their current finances continued to deteriorate in November, while pessimism about the financial outlooks for the year ahead has risen.

    Households across the UK reported further pressure on their everyday spending, which ate into the amount of cash they had available to spend. It has fallen again this month, at a faster rate than in October.

    Debt levels rose in November for the first time in three months, the survey found.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/nov/18/british-households-disappointing-rise-energy-price-cap-january-cornwall-insight-business-live

    I don't think Sunak waiting until would have helped him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    Leon said:

    Someone flagged this. I take it Remainers don’t like this awkward new fact
    I think the EU would have to become a lot fiercer, to make rejoining an attractive proposition. That would mean member states ramping up military spending, and being willing both to inflict, and take, casualties in large numbers. That would mean altering the mindset of decades.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,838
    biggles said:

    So you can’t show anything of the sort.

    If he pulls out of NATO, the European defence agreement that follows will be built on NATO. It will need multiple members not in the EU.

    That is, of course, not even touching on the fact that Ukraine shows us that western militaries out match his. He couldn’t invade Poland without a humiliating defeat, never mind Europe.

    Nuclear weapons are an issue, but that would make us more essential that ever, alongside the French, in helping to retain a nuclear umbrella; giving us massive leverage. Stick to law - you don’t get defence.

    His tariff policies might or might not push us into a closer trading relationship, necessitating some rule taking, but that has nothing to do with joining the EU.
    Why would US tariffs push us into a closer trading arrangement with the EU? UK exports to the US in terms of goods are fairly specialised - things like Scotch whisky. Trump put tariffs on Scotch before (only malts afaicr) and it wasn't great, but didn’t lead to a widespread reorientation of the whisky industry toward the EU or other markets, because that's not how things work.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    eek said:

    The entire world is going to shift right - the immigrants arriving now are only a small number compared to what we will see as global warming really takes effect...
    When are you expecting global warming really to take effect.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,838
    TOPPING said:

    When are you expecting global warming really to take effect.
    Any day now, surely.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    IanB2 said:

    You’ve either never been to Finland or, much more likely, since it’s your usual modus operandi, just jetted in and out without learning anything whatsoever.


    I’ve not only been to Finland (four times) I’ve done the “sauna in the snowbound forest at midnight then dive in the icebound lake where we’ve just
    chopped a hole” rigmarole

    Felt like a god, afterwards. Ended up in bed with the PR girl, too

    Ah, memories
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Any day now, surely.
    Oh God, the global warming deniers are back.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Oh God, the global warming deniers are back.
    Cool it bonzo. Just wondered when @eek thinks global warming will really take effect.

    When do you think it will.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    edited November 2024
    Leon said:

    I’ve not only been to Finland (four times) I’ve done the “sauna in the snowbound forest at midnight then dive in the icebound lake where we’ve just
    chopped a hole” rigmarole

    Felt like a god, afterwards. Ended up in bed with the PR girl, too

    Ah, memories
    Then your abject ignorance is all the more remarkable.

    It really is an achievement to be visiting so many parts of the world, meeting your contact at the airport and then becoming drunk in some hotel bubble by lunchtime every day, and returning just a few days later having learned almost nothing about all the places you have been, apart from what you have managed to scrape on your laptop from Wikipedia.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Why would US tariffs push us into a closer trading arrangement with the EU? UK exports to the US in terms of goods are fairly specialised - things like Scotch whisky. Trump put tariffs on Scotch before (only malts afaicr) and it wasn't great, but didn’t lead to a widespread reorientation of the whisky industry toward the EU or other markets, because that's not how things work.
    As far as the UK is concerned, not being in the EU should be a massive positive when it comes to Trump and tariffs. UK exports to the US are mostly services, and the goods are high-end food and drink, and manufacturing such as cars.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    Leon said:

    When will Rejoiners realise the future EU is going to be hard right?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/18/european-union-right-wing-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-hard-right-parties

    It will be interesting to see how lefty Remainers react to this dawning reality
    Maybe, maybe not. At the moment the only EU governments genuinely hard right led are Italy's and Hungary's.

    Nationalist hard right parties are in coalition governments in the Netherlands, Slovakia and Czech Republic and give confidence and supply to the Swedish centre right government but not in outright control
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    Sean_F said:

    I think the EU would have to become a lot fiercer, to make rejoining an attractive proposition. That would mean member states ramping up military spending, and being willing both to inflict, and take, casualties in large numbers. That would mean altering the mindset of decades.
    The practical problems of rejoining the EU, by themselves, make it utterly impossible

    Consider the process

    You’d have to put a Rejoin promise in your manifesto

    Win the election

    Call a referendum

    Win the referendum

    Then hope and pray that - over the next 5-10 years of negotiation? - the EU doesn’t demand we hand over Gibraltar, or every fish in Scotland, and that some tiny country doesn’t veto us for the lolz

    Meanwhile UK politics - and economics - would be in turmoil waiting for the decision of the EU - for a decade

    It’s simply never going to happen. Its done. We’re out forever and huzzah for that
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    TOPPING said:

    Cool it bonzo. Just wondered when @eek thinks global warming will really take effect.

    When do you think it will.
    Well it's already changing the weather - but my point was that it's likely to be as with bankruptcy - slow changes and then all at once...
  • We're rich. Betfair has settled the pop vote and EC bets. The only outstanding markets are vote percentages.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    eek said:

    Well it's already changing the weather - but my point was that it's likely to be as with bankruptcy - slow changes and then all at once...
    And when do you expect the all at once to happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nigel Farage holds highest favourability rating in Ipsos poll, but almost half hold unfavourable opinion of Reform UK leader"

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/nigel-farage-holds-highest-favourability-rating-ipsos-poll-almost-half-hold-unfavourable-opinion

    Trump more popular with younger British voters than older ones.

    18-34: Fav 28%, Unfav 48%
    35-54: Fav 28%, Unfav 53%
    55+: Fav 20%, Unfav 69%

    In the US too Trump polled best with middle aged voters not pensioners, Harris actually tied him with over 65s.

    Reform did better with 45-65s than over 65s too in July and in France Macron and his party won pensioners comfortably but Le Pen won the middle aged.

    It is a myth pensioners always vote for the most rightwing party. Pensioners are most likely to vote for the centre right and liberal parties but it is the middle aged most likely to vote for the far right and nationalist right, especially middle aged men.

    The young are more likely to vote for populist parties of left or right
  • UK consumer confidence has fallen this month, as households grow gloomier about their financial prospects.

    The latest poll of consumer sentiment, just released by data firm S&P Global, shows that households reported that their current finances continued to deteriorate in November, while pessimism about the financial outlooks for the year ahead has risen.

    Households across the UK reported further pressure on their everyday spending, which ate into the amount of cash they had available to spend. It has fallen again this month, at a faster rate than in October.

    Debt levels rose in November for the first time in three months, the survey found.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/nov/18/british-households-disappointing-rise-energy-price-cap-january-cornwall-insight-business-live

    I don't think Sunak waiting until would have helped him.

    Why? He wouldn't have spent 3 months talking down Britain and then delivering a quasi-socialist budget.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    edited November 2024
    IanB2 said:

    Then your abject ignorance is all the more remarkable.

    It really is an achievement to be visiting so many parts of the world, meeting your contact at the airport and then becoming drunk in some hotel bubble by lunchtime every day, and returning just a few days later having learned almost nothing about all the places you have been, apart from what you have managed to scrape on your laptop from Wikipedia.
    And yet, inexplicably, I am professionally paid to write about my travel experiences - indeed I am paid to HAVE these travel experiences, and then thousands of people happily pay to read about
    them

    Whereas you, sadly, have to pay to travel and no one cares what you do when you’re abroad because you’re a weird friendless idiot

    I know this drives you nuts and that only adds to my pleasure. Sorry
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,136
    Leon said:

    The practical problems of rejoining the EU, by themselves, make it utterly impossible

    Fuck, man, do you ever shut up about Brexit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024

    Why? He wouldn't have spent 3 months talking down Britain and then delivering a quasi-socialist budget.
    The general consumer confidence might not have been quite as bad as having to endure Gordon Brittas for the past 3 months and the budget is taking things in the wrong direction, but the major impacts of that are down the road....the deterioration in UK household finances would have still been the same.
  • Sean_F said:

    I think the EU would have to become a lot fiercer, to make rejoining an attractive proposition. That would mean member states ramping up military spending, and being willing both to inflict, and take, casualties in large numbers. That would mean altering the mindset of decades.
    If I'm honest, the battle to Remain a member of the EU was lost between 2004-2009 when it was considering the EU Constitution and then moved to the Lisbon Treaty as part of its long-term confederalism as a consequence of adopting the Euro.

    That was the time when our membership could have been put on a stable footing: Blair then Brown chose to ignore it, and Cameron/Osborne pretended to be bothered by it but entirely insincerely.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Leon said:

    And yet, inexplicably, I am professionally paid to write about my travel experiences - indeed I am paid to HAVE these travel experiences, and then thousands of people happily pay to read about
    them

    Whereas you, sadly, have to pay to travel and no one cares what you do when you’re abroad because you’re a weird friendless idiot

    I know this drives you nuts and that only adds to my pleasure. Sorry
    Crikey - I thought you were paid to post on PB!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    Leon said:

    And yet, weirdly, I am professionally paid to write about my travel experiences - indeed I am paid to HAVE these travel experiences, and then thousands of people happily pay to read about
    them

    Whereas you, sadly, have to pay to travel and no one cares what you do when you’re abroad because you’re a weird friendless idiot

    I know this drives you nuts and that only adds to my pleasure. Sorry
    I’m happy and able to afford my time spent travelling.

    That I am able to return from Finland, with an appreciation of its culture and history and fully understanding why it would never consent to being renamed ‘Russia’, while you travel for nothing and come back with precisely your money’s worth, in terms of understanding and knowledge, says it all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    IanB2 said:

    I’m happy and able to afford my time spent travelling.

    That I am able to return from Finland, with an appreciation of its culture and history and fully understanding why it would never consent to being renamed ‘Russia’, while you travel for nothing and come back with precisely your money’s worth, in terms of understanding and knowledge, says it all.
    lol
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    edited November 2024
    Leon said:

    lol
    Your surrender accepted.

    That the most travelled person on PB comes away with the narrowest of minds is the most tragic of outcomes, to someone who always tries to return from travel at least a little more enlightened than before.
This discussion has been closed.