So this is the polling question we need to see more – politicalbetting.com
So this is the polling question we need to see more – politicalbetting.com
so the french guy who yolo’d $30m on trump on polymarket noticed polls asking “who are your neighbors voting for?” instead of “who are you voting for?” had trump overperforming.so he commissioned his own poll to confirm.$49m profit in a week. pic.twitter.com/llJhwQhJJx
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The answer in my case would be not a clue because I think they average themselves out...
Edit - actually it would have worked out in 2019 - because Bozo was obvious but this time round I suspect the votes were 25% Tory / 25% Labour / 25% Reform / 25% Lib Dem...
Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.
By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.
Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.
I might well have not bothered doing anything.
*Cross face*
However Rail Electrification in Scotland is organised and continues at a steady pace - with the closures announced for at least one of next years projects.
Once again Scotland will electrify more track on the quiet than England will do with multiple Parliamentary announcements.
Reposted as kind of on point. Well, it's about US election polling.
The Georgia and Pennsylvania early voting numbers were rock solid, 100% accurate.
Interpreting them in the light of polling that consistently had women breaking way more for Harris and at rates way in advance of the normal 3-4% margin women historically vote more than men was a sound enough basis to try to estimate how votes already cast were stacking up.
The polling just missed the sheer scale of men voting for Trump. (Well, apart from the French guy's polling, obvs.) Was I made to look a fool? Sure. Was it purely "lefty virtue signalling and wishcasting"? Sure, cuz that really is who I am.... (Rolls eyes heavanwards....)
As the civil war breaks out between Biden and Harris teams playing the blame game, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get leaked stories about how Biden hasn't really been running anything for ages now.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1854471771946115250?t=gJbmIwd7ilwv29gLlXhQGA&s=08
I mean the statistical tick can be put by Harris very quickly but the House has plenty of competitive elections there
On a personal level Trump's victory and his Crypto Bros means I have more work.
I was spectacularly uninformed and butt lazy. So I can only blame myself.
The reason I do well on UK politics is because I understand it, at least at some level, and read-up on it all the time.
The early voting by party registration changes from 2020 was actually quite predictive - I *think* we should be able to use that delta for the 2028 election as 2024 was a non Covid year which could (But didn't) distort the 2020 baseline.
Ralston's call on Nevada DID felt kind of wishcasty this time round tbh though given he saw a rural lead into ED.
Odd, really, since I am perfectly happy to bet against the LDs in a UK election if I don't think things are going their way.
OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!
It's just a shame Biden didn't pick someone (anyone) else for VP - if it had been Mayor Pete I suspect we would have a different result..
Not, I don't accept the new government, FFIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHTTTTTTTTTTT....
Quite gracious by Biden
Whenever there's a big news event distracting people from work, it's fairly usual for managers to send round "if you're feeling upset or concerned, you can talk to the counselling service". Happens all the time after terrorist attacks and the like - basically, it's a fluffy way of saying "get back to work, please".
And, of course, Guido faking outrage over HR trivia is absolutely normal behaviour.
Surely not.
Dems are just ahead in Nevada and Arizona and only 30,000 behind in Pennsylvania with Philly still to count the remaining120,000 with the DEMs (Casey) 60% ahead. That's 72,000 more DEM votes. Should make up the 30,000 shortfall.
GOP number of Senate seats 49-52 is at 7. They have 52 seats already but the final three are all likely to be DEM. Not much liquidity but I have £70 on to try to make up some of my losses (or add to them!)
So it all comes down to Starmer's political calculation over whether to force a resignation, I suspect.
If the Americans had wanted a different outcome they've certainly not done anything to avert this one. Trump might be more openly belligerent and cruel but I doubt he could have done more than the Biden administration to support the Israeli mass killings and territorial expropriation. We've quietly played our part with logistics and surveillance.
I wouldn't place much blame on the Arab-American vote. Its human nature that the scorned will lash out, the Democratic campaign were aware of the situation and did very little to ameliorate it.
UK will ask US ambassador Karen Pierce to stay in post for Trump transition
Guardina live blog
But it’s not going to be what the Tories want.
Mainstream Media = Fox News
The 2026 map looks OK for the Democrats: I think Maine is a 100% nailed on gain, and North Carolina in a midterm looks very good for them too.
Beyond there it is more tricky, but there are lots of midterm possibles for them.
If Biden had had one of his really good days on the evening of the June debate then he would never have been 'asked' to move aside and then...
Donald Trump tried his damnedest to overturn the 2020 election. Via spurious legal challenges, intimidation of officials, smearing of the electoral process with lies and disinformation, and finally incitement to violence, he sought to stay in power after being voted out. That should have disbarred him from ever standing again and the GOP could have ensured that he didn't. Instead they caved and went back to him.
So, two bad actors here. Donald Trump and the Republican Party. You like to see wrongdoing punished, don't you? In an ideal world you do anyway. Of course it's not an ideal world and people get away with things. That's life. But that's not what has happened. What's happened is that Donald Trump is back as president and the GOP have had their best election for decades, WH, PV, EC, Senate, House. They've smashed it.
Upshot? The egregious behaviour of this man and that political party has not only gone unpunished it has been rewarded. I find that revolting.
It looks like the intention is to prolong fighting for as long as possible. If they'd wanted to expel the population and annex the land then the Gazans would already be in the Egyptian desert I'd have thought.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Never bet what you can't afford to lose!!
Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/11/07/liberal-women-4b-sex-strike-over-trump-election-win/
Have any incumbent governments held onto their majority in the post Ukraine/Covid inflation world?
That the fundamental challenge. Voters everywhere have gotten poorer in the last four years, irrespective of who was in charge. And they have reacted by kicking incumbents.
It's happened in Poland, in the UK, in South Africa, in Argentina, in India, and in Japan. It happened in France.
And where elections haven't happened yet, incumbents are almost universally unpopular, having been blamed for the economic malaise.
Go The Trump.