politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

So this is the polling question we need to see more – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,430
edited November 2024 in General
So this is the polling question we need to see more – politicalbetting.com

so the french guy who yolo’d $30m on trump on polymarket noticed polls asking “who are your neighbors voting for?” instead of “who are you voting for?” had trump overperforming.so he commissioned his own poll to confirm.$49m profit in a week. pic.twitter.com/llJhwQhJJx

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    First?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    Probably.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,201
    edited November 2024
    The problem with this tale is there were lots of winners and lots of losers and they've all got their own story.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    The French guy has obviously met my neighbours.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    He could buy back Louisiana....
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    edited November 2024
    I actually thought about that question last night.

    The answer in my case would be not a clue because I think they average themselves out...

    Edit - actually it would have worked out in 2019 - because Bozo was obvious but this time round I suspect the votes were 25% Tory / 25% Labour / 25% Reform / 25% Lib Dem...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Do people say who they think who their neighbours would actually vote for or how they are REALLY going to vote :p ?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    FPT
    Eabhal said:

    bondegezou said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Fishing said:

    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yep.
    Will Labour get this, or not ?

    "Britain’s HS2 rail line spent £100mn building an arch over the railway to protect overflying bats from hitting its trains.

    "Thompson, who became chair in 2023, said the bat measure was just one of 8,276 consents HS2 needed."

    High infrastructure costs are a policy choice.
    https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1854518510082306063

    Retained EU legislation which the tories kept after Brexit.
    Actually, it doesn't appear that it was.
    Also, note the contribution to delay as well as the cost.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/07/cost-of-shed-to-protect-bat-colony-near-hs2-has-topped-100m-chair-says
    ...He said the “bat shed” was his favourite example of the problems caused. Thompson said the Bechstein’s bat was not protected elsewhere and “generally pretty available in most of northern Europe, western Europe. But nevertheless, under the Wildlife Act, 1981, it’s deemed to be a protected species in the UK, this bat, even though there’s lots of them.”

    Thomson added: “No evidence, by the way, that high speed trains interfere with bats, but leave it on one side.”

    HS2 had to obtain a licence from Natural England, which approved the bat mitigation structure, before asking planning permission from Buckinghamshire county council, he said.

    “So when we go to [the] council and say: ‘Would you like to give us planning permission for this blot on the landscape that costs £100m’, of course, the answer to that is, you’ve got to be joking, right? Why would [they] like this eyesore?

    “So now I’ve got two different bodies. One says I have to do it. The other one says: ‘No chance’. So what do you do? I reach for the lawyers and the environmental specialists and hydrologists and so on and so forth. It stretches out the time. I spend hundreds of thousands of pounds trying to do something, and then in the end, I win the planning commission by going over [the county council’s] head.”..
    But apparently there's no fat to cut in the public sector.

    The reality is that we are making ourselves poor by regulations, and the associated armies of the clipboard wielding who spend our money on fighting each other over their mutually incompatible aims.
    Rubbish. Everybody knows the only way we'll get prosperity is by taxing, spending and regulating the private sector out of existence.

    See paradises like North Korea, Venezuela and the old Soviet Union.

    (Unfortunately, with the current government, the above comment is less satire than a statement of economic policy).
    Given that you list consisted of HS2 (badly ran by the previous Government who changed the plans all the time), not giving Northern Ireland any money and annoying farmers even more than the IHT changes have done - I don't think you ideas are that great.

    HS2 is a financial disaster zone for many, many reasons, but this particular case is not really about HS2, but about the pointless costs which come from inflexible regulations - and which result in lots of public (and private) sector money being spent completely uselessly.
    But what’s the cause of these regulations? It’s often small-c conservative NIMBYism.
    On HS2, a lot of the cost was induced by the political uncertainty of whether it would actually go ahead. Firms had to hedge against that, and that bill landed with us.

    The much bigger cost will actually be from other projects. Wound you invest in the equipment and staff required for a massive tidal pond in the knowledge it might randomly get cancelled by someone like Sunak? A SMR? A battery plant?

    The reason other countries can get this so cheap is because there is a constant programme of investment that is immune to shite decisions from politicians. This is particularly the case with rail electrification. In Edinburgh, why the fuck have we downed tools on the tram instead of slowly but steadily building a few miles a year? A smaller, cheaper, local workforce that develops deep technical expertise and job security over time.
    Because the overspend made the next stage politically difficult

    However Rail Electrification in Scotland is organised and continues at a steady pace - with the closures announced for at least one of next years projects.

    Once again Scotland will electrify more track on the quiet than England will do with multiple Parliamentary announcements.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    Bloody crypto bros....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,718
    Pulpstar said:

    Do people say who they think who their neighbours would actually vote for or how they are REALLY going to vote :p ?

    Is this method prone to the friendship paradox? (Whereby an individual's friends have more friends than that individual: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox .) if some people are “super-neighbours”, do they bias the poll, if people are really thinking about their neighbours’ behaviour?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    I thought trading on Polymarket was err in Bitcoin. Or do they use USDT ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,718
    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do people say who they think who their neighbours would actually vote for or how they are REALLY going to vote :p ?

    Is this method prone to the friendship paradox? (Whereby an individual's friends have more friends than that individual: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox .) if some people are “super-neighbours”, do they bias the poll, if people are really thinking about their neighbours’ behaviour?
    Oh, someone has already raised this issue: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03649-2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068
    Yes, people holding unpopular views with the elite and mainstream media may be more willing to say their neighbours hold them than they do
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    Curse of the new thread...

    Reposted as kind of on point. Well, it's about US election polling.


    The Georgia and Pennsylvania early voting numbers were rock solid, 100% accurate.

    Interpreting them in the light of polling that consistently had women breaking way more for Harris and at rates way in advance of the normal 3-4% margin women historically vote more than men was a sound enough basis to try to estimate how votes already cast were stacking up.

    The polling just missed the sheer scale of men voting for Trump. (Well, apart from the French guy's polling, obvs.) Was I made to look a fool? Sure. Was it purely "lefty virtue signalling and wishcasting"? Sure, cuz that really is who I am.... (Rolls eyes heavanwards....)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    That's a bummer. Why not betfair?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,718
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    At least you watched a good film!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Go on Joe - pardon all the illegals!
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,985
    In Scotland, the local election results are recorded down to ballot box level, so you can actually see how your neighbours (in the broadest sense) voted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Oh, him? The President dude? How quickly you forget...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Oh, him? The President dude? How quickly you forget...
    Well it often so long between appearances, its easy to forget.

    As the civil war breaks out between Biden and Harris teams playing the blame game, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get leaked stories about how Biden hasn't really been running anything for ages now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    FPT
    xyzxyzxyz said:

    French bettor who made $50m on election result used private neighbourhood polls. French regulator now banning poly market.

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d?mod=mhp Paywall

    Why are they banning it?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    Is this for real?

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1854471771946115250?t=gJbmIwd7ilwv29gLlXhQGA&s=08
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    @rcs1000 Why is California so very slow to count it's votes ?

    I mean the statistical tick can be put by Harris very quickly but the House has plenty of competitive elections there
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    xyzxyzxyz said:

    French bettor who made $50m on election result used private neighbourhood polls. French regulator now banning poly market.

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d?mod=mhp Paywall

    Why are they banning it?
    Because Crypto is generally used by bad people, it is highly unregulated.

    On a personal level Trump's victory and his Crypto Bros means I have more work.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    Lol. I can sympathise with that.

    I was spectacularly uninformed and butt lazy. So I can only blame myself.

    The reason I do well on UK politics is because I understand it, at least at some level, and read-up on it all the time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited November 2024
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    Lol. I can sympathise with that.

    I was spectacularly uninformed and butt lazy. So I can only blame myself.

    The reason I do well on UK politics is because I understand it, at least at some level, and read-up on it all the time.
    I kept out of this cycle because I didn't have time to do all of the legwork. Without that effort there's no way to beat the market, like this man did with his neighbour polling. Absolutely brilliant this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110
    As I reported from my US trip, insofar as Americans would talk about the election, the ones I met were all Harris supporters who nevertheless expected Trump to win.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    Is Biden still asleep?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    IanB2 said:

    As I reported from my US trip, insofar as Americans would talk about the election, the ones I met were all Harris supporters who nevertheless expected Trump to win.

    The silent majority ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    In Scotland, the local election results are recorded down to ballot box level, so you can actually see how your neighbours (in the broadest sense) voted.

    Do they still do that for the smaller islands or merge them for privacy, I wonder.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    In Scotland, the local election results are recorded down to ballot box level, so you can actually see how your neighbours (in the broadest sense) voted.

    Do they still do that for the smaller islands or merge them for privacy, I wonder.
    Seems like it could lead to some awkward social gatherings....witch hunt to discover the one Tory voter on the island....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited November 2024
    Selzer's poll was annoying because she's no partisan hack calling Iowa wildly (And correctly) far more in favour of Trump last time than other polls had Biden doing.
    The early voting by party registration changes from 2020 was actually quite predictive - I *think* we should be able to use that delta for the 2028 election as 2024 was a non Covid year which could (But didn't) distort the 2020 baseline.
    Ralston's call on Nevada DID felt kind of wishcasty this time round tbh though given he saw a rural lead into ED.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,555
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Oh, him? The President dude? How quickly you forget...
    Well it often so long between appearances, its easy to forget.

    As the civil war breaks out between Biden and Harris teams playing the blame game, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get leaked stories about how Biden hasn't really been running anything for ages now.
    Yup. It will be "They HAD to run Harris. The guy would have spent months being pummelled, with no coherent response. We'd have lost Vermont with him as the candidate..."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    Lol. I can sympathise with that.

    I was spectacularly uninformed and butt lazy. So I can only blame myself.

    The reason I do well on UK politics is because I understand it, at least at some level, and read-up on it all the time.
    Yes. I lost money, but I expected to if Trump won, since I simply couldn't sit up to watch an election like this one with my money riding on a man like Trump, whether or not the analysis pointed his way or not. And other people's analysis mostly pointed towards a coin toss, anyway. So I made bets that would have been decent ones, in terms of the odds and chances, in the scenario where Harris wins. I was mostly gambling with the profit from having been laying Biden as nominee for the last eighteen months, anyway, and knew they were heart bets, not head ones.

    Odd, really, since I am perfectly happy to bet against the LDs in a UK election if I don't think things are going their way.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited November 2024
    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Go on Joe - pardon all the illegals!
    Individually and by name? :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    xyzxyzxyz said:

    French bettor who made $50m on election result used private neighbourhood polls. French regulator now banning poly market.

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d?mod=mhp Paywall

    Why are they banning it?
    Because Crypto is generally used by bad people, it is highly unregulated.

    On a personal level Trump's victory and his Crypto Bros means I have more work.
    So not all bad, then? :)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Oh, him? The President dude? How quickly you forget...
    Well it often so long between appearances, its easy to forget.

    As the civil war breaks out between Biden and Harris teams playing the blame game, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get leaked stories about how Biden hasn't really been running anything for ages now.
    Yup. It will be "They HAD to run Harris. The guy would have spent months being pummelled, with no coherent response. We'd have lost Vermont with him as the candidate..."
    I mean, by the point of the first debate, that is almost certainly true (hyperbole aside).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    The war in Gaza might end very quickly once Trump is in charge. I mean it won't end well for the Palestinian people but it might well end.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    Why has California stopped counting on 55% counted?

    OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why has California stopped counting on 55% counted?

    OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!

    More importantly it's crucial for the House.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why has California stopped counting on 55% counted?

    OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!

    TBF, they'll still be receiving votes for another 5 days so the denominator isn't even known yet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is Biden still asleep?

    He supposedly congratulated Trump by phone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is Biden still asleep?

    He supposedly congratulated Trump by phone.
    AI is very good these days....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why has California stopped counting on 55% counted?

    OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!

    More importantly it's crucial for the House.
    Pelosi seems to have got 80% of the vote in her District! So far!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Driver said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why has California stopped counting on 55% counted?

    OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!

    TBF, they'll still be receiving votes for another 5 days so the denominator isn't even known yet.
    So many blue states have tremendously tardy election procedures (Yes even Seashanty's WA). It really is no good to not know things like house control for ages.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    Biden speech is much better than Harris.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    Lol. I can sympathise with that.

    I was spectacularly uninformed and butt lazy. So I can only blame myself.

    The reason I do well on UK politics is because I understand it, at least at some level, and read-up on it all the time.
    I kept out of this cycle because I didn't have time to do all of the legwork. Without that effort there's no way to beat the market, like this man did with his neighbour polling. Absolutely brilliant this.
    I've received your piece and will publish it Saturday morning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    The war in Gaza might end very quickly once Trump is in charge. I mean it won't end well for the Palestinian people but it might well end.
    Gaza is toast, I think.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    edited November 2024
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    That's not exactly surprising - Harris was never the best public speaker.

    It's just a shame Biden didn't pick someone (anyone) else for VP - if it had been Mayor Pete I suspect we would have a different result..
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    Lol. I can sympathise with that.

    I was spectacularly uninformed and butt lazy. So I can only blame myself.

    The reason I do well on UK politics is because I understand it, at least at some level, and read-up on it all the time.
    I kept out of this cycle because I didn't have time to do all of the legwork. Without that effort there's no way to beat the market, like this man did with his neighbour polling. Absolutely brilliant this.
    I've received your piece and will publish it Saturday morning.
    Excellent, I hope people enjoy it!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    This is what Harris should have said!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    eek said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    That's not exactly surprising - Harris was never the best public speaker.

    It's just a shame Biden didn't pick someone (anyone) else for VP - if it had been Mayor Pete I suspect we would have a different result..
    The content is right though. This is a message of unity, hope and optimism, with still enough tips to the hat of we will still keep working to get back.

    Not, I don't accept the new government, FFIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHTTTTTTTTTTT....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)

    Go on Joe - pardon all the illegals!
    He'll probably say that he's disappointed President Putin has been re-elected to office, but we're a democracy and must accept the result - end quote.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    eek said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    That's not exactly surprising - Harris was never the best public speaker.

    It's just a shame Biden didn't pick someone (anyone) else for VP - if it had been Mayor Pete I suspect we would have a different result..
    Mayor Pete fulfilled neither of Biden's prerequisites for the role...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    if only biden were five years younger.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    As my wife has just said

    Quite gracious by Biden
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    The war in Gaza might end very quickly once Trump is in charge. I mean it won't end well for the Palestinian people but it might well end.
    Gaza is toast, I think.
    "Hey Bibi, just sort this thing out will you I'll give you whatever the hell you want, do whatever the hell you want I just want this finished now OK"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    rottenborough said:

    if only biden were five years younger.

    I think you mean 25
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    edited November 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Driver said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why has California stopped counting on 55% counted?

    OK, Harris got the EVs, but we still need to know the PV total!

    TBF, they'll still be receiving votes for another 5 days so the denominator isn't even known yet.
    So many blue states have tremendously tardy election procedures (Yes even Seashanty's WA). It really is no good to not know things like house control for ages.
    Yeah but it takes a really long time in those States because REASONS.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
    They've got to be the most stupid people ever. Whatever the Dems did for Israel is going to 10x under Trump. Trump will ensure that the US veto is weilded any time there's any question over Israeli overreach which results in mass civilian deaths.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well, betting wise, I won and I lost.

    Like every election, I save the bulk of my betting for the night. So I loaded by Polymarket account with some Bitcoin, and had a typically profitable evening because the market moved too slowly (as always) in response to new information.

    By the time the probabilities got to over 90% Trump, I called it a night, and watched The Bourne Ultimatum and drank red wine.

    Yesterday, I went to transfer my winnings back to Bitcoin... and discovered that essentially all my profits had disappeared due to the massive spike in the Bitcoin price.

    I might well have not bothered doing anything.

    *Cross face*

    I thought trading on Polymarket was err in Bitcoin. Or do they use USDT ?
    The do do indeed use a stablecoin. I forget which.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    The war in Gaza might end very quickly once Trump is in charge. I mean it won't end well for the Palestinian people but it might well end.
    Gaza is toast, I think.
    "Hey Bibi, just sort this thing out will you I'll give you whatever the hell you want, do whatever the hell you want I just want this finished now OK"
    Big beautiful bombs, I have given Bibi, the biggest ones, bigger ones than Biden, they make the biggest boom, everybody says so....
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this for real?

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1854471771946115250?t=gJbmIwd7ilwv29gLlXhQGA&s=08

    Probably. They'll almost certainly have a counselling service for staff as part of the normal workplace benefit package.

    Whenever there's a big news event distracting people from work, it's fairly usual for managers to send round "if you're feeling upset or concerned, you can talk to the counselling service". Happens all the time after terrorist attacks and the like - basically, it's a fluffy way of saying "get back to work, please".

    And, of course, Guido faking outrage over HR trivia is absolutely normal behaviour.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this for real?

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1854471771946115250?t=gJbmIwd7ilwv29gLlXhQGA&s=08

    Words fail me.

    Surely not.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,763
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
    I didn't see any saying they'd vote Trump, but I did see a few saying they'd vote for Stein.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    I think Emily Matlis is going to need to some expensive therapy sessions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    MaxPB said:

    Driver said:

    eek said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    That's not exactly surprising - Harris was never the best public speaker.

    It's just a shame Biden didn't pick someone (anyone) else for VP - if it had been Mayor Pete I suspect we would have a different result..
    Mayor Pete fulfilled neither of Biden's prerequisites for the role...
    He picked the VP on the basis of her skin colour and gender not her ability to do the job and be a successful candidate for the top job. He didn't pick the best person for the job and now the party and country are going to pay for it. If ever there was an argument against affirmative action/positive discrimination this is it.
    He picked a weak VP so that he wouldn't be pressured to stand aside. It's one of the reasons Democrats left it so late to ask Biden to give way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Are we expecting a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
    I didn't see any saying they'd vote Trump, but I did see a few saying they'd vote for Stein.
    Which is kind of a half-vote for Trump...
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,763
    Driver said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
    I didn't see any saying they'd vote Trump, but I did see a few saying they'd vote for Stein.
    Which is kind of a half-vote for Trump...
    Indeed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    GIN1138 said:

    Are we expecting a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby?

    We have to wait for the outcome of the trial.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    edited November 2024
    I think the DEMS are going to take the remaining three Senate seats leaving the GOP on 52.

    Dems are just ahead in Nevada and Arizona and only 30,000 behind in Pennsylvania with Philly still to count the remaining120,000 with the DEMs (Casey) 60% ahead. That's 72,000 more DEM votes. Should make up the 30,000 shortfall.



    GOP number of Senate seats 49-52 is at 7. They have 52 seats already but the final three are all likely to be DEM. Not much liquidity but I have £70 on to try to make up some of my losses (or add to them!)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    My neighbours are all Tories. Says nothing about my voting intention.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this for real?

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1854471771946115250?t=gJbmIwd7ilwv29gLlXhQGA&s=08

    Words fail me.

    Surely not.
    Not sure why this is seen as so terrible or unbelievable?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    GIN1138 said:

    Are we expecting a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby?

    No chance of an automatic DQ, the sentencing guidelines top out at 16 weeks and in reality (caveat: I know no details of the case) he's unlikely to receive a custodial sentence at all which would also rule out a recall petition.

    So it all comes down to Starmer's political calculation over whether to force a resignation, I suspect.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    Maybe the Dems should have stuck with Joe?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Are we expecting a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby?

    We have to wait for the outcome of the trial.
    So in about 2 years time given current court waiting times...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    GIN1138 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    Maybe the Dems should have stuck with Joe?
    The price of eggs would probably still have done for him though.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,759
    edited November 2024
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
    They've got to be the most stupid people ever. Whatever the Dems did for Israel is going to 10x under Trump. Trump will ensure that the US veto is weilded any time there's any question over Israeli overreach which results in mass civilian deaths.
    I doubt the end result will be any different. Northern Gaza is in the process of being razed, annexed and settled.

    If the Americans had wanted a different outcome they've certainly not done anything to avert this one. Trump might be more openly belligerent and cruel but I doubt he could have done more than the Biden administration to support the Israeli mass killings and territorial expropriation. We've quietly played our part with logistics and surveillance.

    I wouldn't place much blame on the Arab-American vote. Its human nature that the scorned will lash out, the Democratic campaign were aware of the situation and did very little to ameliorate it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    GIN1138 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    Maybe the Dems should have stuck with Joe?
    No way, the thumping would have been even bigger. They needed a proper primary process to get to the right candidate and policy platform.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549

    UK will ask US ambassador Karen Pierce to stay in post for Trump transition

    Guardina live blog
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,787
    I am fully supportive of changing the planning system to allow building anything without constraint.

    But it’s not going to be what the Tories want.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, people holding unpopular views with the elite and mainstream media may be more willing to say their neighbours hold them than they do

    Elite = Donald Trump

    Mainstream Media = Fox News
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Barnesian said:

    I think the DEMS are going to take the remaining three Senate seats leaving the GOP on 52.

    Dems are just ahead in Nevada and Arizona and only 30,000 behind in Pennsylvania with Philly still to count the remaining120,000 with the DEMs (Casey) 60% ahead. That's 72,000 more DEM votes. Should make up the 30,000 shortfall.



    GOP number of Senate seats 49-52 is at 7. They have 52 seats already but the final three are all likely to be DEM. Not much liquidity but I have £70 on to try to make up some of my losses (or add to them!)

    I agree that the Dems look likely to hold onto 48 (including Independents), with Pennsylvania being on a knife edge, but they'll probably just edge it.

    The 2026 map looks OK for the Democrats: I think Maine is a 100% nailed on gain, and North Carolina in a midterm looks very good for them too.

    Beyond there it is more tricky, but there are lots of midterm possibles for them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    The counter factional history for this year is going to be a source of debate.

    If Biden had had one of his really good days on the evening of the June debate then he would never have been 'asked' to move aside and then...

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    MightyAlex said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
    That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
    They've got to be the most stupid people ever. Whatever the Dems did for Israel is going to 10x under Trump. Trump will ensure that the US veto is weilded any time there's any question over Israeli overreach which results in mass civilian deaths.
    I doubt the end result will be any different. Northern Gaza is in the process of being razed, annexed and settled.

    if the Americans had wanted a different outcome they've certainly not done anything to avert this one. Trump might be more openly belligerent and cruel but I doubt he could have done more than the Biden administration to support the Israeli mass killings and territorial expropriation. We've quietly played our part with logistics and surveillance.
    My understanding was that the Israeli army was fighting through an area and then pulling out. So causing lots of destruction, but not occupying the land, not becoming responsible for the civilians there, nor expelling them to elsewhere.

    It looks like the intention is to prolong fighting for as long as possible. If they'd wanted to expel the population and annex the land then the Gazans would already be in the Egyptian desert I'd have thought.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I am fully supportive of changing the planning system to allow building anything without constraint.

    But it’s not going to be what the Tories want.

    That would, of course, be an abolition of the planning system.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,426
    So it wasn't someone fabulously wealthy trying to sway the vote by an odd type of persuasion, but someone fabulously wealthy who'd picked up on public info, verified it, and wanted to add another fabulous fortune to his existing one. Amazing.

    Never bet what you can't afford to lose!!

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win
    Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/11/07/liberal-women-4b-sex-strike-over-trump-election-win/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Biden speech is much better than Harris.

    Maybe the Dems should have stuck with Joe?
    No way, the thumping would have been even bigger. They needed a proper primary process to get to the right candidate and policy platform.
    That might have helped, but don't forget the most likely winner of the Primary process was Gavin Newsom, and he's worse than Harris.

    Have any incumbent governments held onto their majority in the post Ukraine/Covid inflation world?

    That the fundamental challenge. Voters everywhere have gotten poorer in the last four years, irrespective of who was in charge. And they have reacted by kicking incumbents.

    It's happened in Poland, in the UK, in South Africa, in Argentina, in India, and in Japan. It happened in France.

    And where elections haven't happened yet, incumbents are almost universally unpopular, having been blamed for the economic malaise.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them

    The war in Gaza might end very quickly once Trump is in charge. I mean it won't end well for the Palestinian people but it might well end.
    Gaza is toast, I think.
    Are there any buildings left standing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    kinabalu said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this for real?

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1854471771946115250?t=gJbmIwd7ilwv29gLlXhQGA&s=08

    Counselling is OTT. I mean, I was in bits, truly I was, but some sleep and a bowl of porridge pretty much sorted me out. The outcome IS a tragedy though. On several levels it is but I'd offer this one as the biggie:

    Donald Trump tried his damnedest to overturn the 2020 election. Via spurious legal challenges, intimidation of officials, smearing of the electoral process with lies and disinformation, and finally incitement to violence, he sought to stay in power after being voted out. That should have disbarred him from ever standing again and the GOP could have ensured that he didn't. Instead they caved and went back to him.

    So, two bad actors here. Donald Trump and the Republican Party. You like to see wrongdoing punished, don't you? In an ideal world you do anyway. Of course it's not an ideal world and people get away with things. That's life. But that's not what has happened. What's happened is that Donald Trump is back as president and the GOP have had their best election for decades, WH, PV, EC, Senate, House. They've smashed it.

    Upshot? The egregious behaviour of this man and that political party has not only gone unpunished it has been rewarded. I find that revolting.
    Nah. Shows his dedication to the cause. He wants to make America great again so much he is willing to go to extreme lengths to do so.

    Go The Trump.
This discussion has been closed.