Just heard a US commentator suggest the young did not like all the weapons being sent to Ukraine and Israel, and Trump's stance on ending these wars appealed to them
I'm sorry activist young people didn't vote for Trump. The idea is ridiculous. Young people who voted for Trump were largely male, low paid in manual jobs. College educated Palestine activists either sat at home because they didn't like Biden's support of Israel or they went out an campaigned for Kamala because they knew Trump would let Bibi roll in the tanks and flatten Gaza completely.
That's not entirely true: there were a number of voxpox from young Arab American men in Michigan voting for Trump because of the lack of Democrat support for Palestine. Now, I'm sure they were relatively few in number, but they did still exist.
They've got to be the most stupid people ever. Whatever the Dems did for Israel is going to 10x under Trump. Trump will ensure that the US veto is weilded any time there's any question over Israeli overreach which results in mass civilian deaths.
I doubt the end result will be any different. Northern Gaza is in the process of being razed, annexed and settled.
if the Americans had wanted a different outcome they've certainly not done anything to avert this one. Trump might be more openly belligerent and cruel but I doubt he could have done more than the Biden administration to support the Israeli mass killings and territorial expropriation. We've quietly played our part with logistics and surveillance.
My understanding was that the Israeli army was fighting through an area and then pulling out. So causing lots of destruction, but not occupying the land, not becoming responsible for the civilians there, nor expelling them to elsewhere.
It looks like the intention is to prolong fighting for as long as possible. If they'd wanted to expel the population and annex the land then the Gazans would already be in the Egyptian desert I'd have thought.
IMO the population of Northern Gaza has been expelled to the South and the debris fields are now a tabula rasa for settlement. This seems to be plan and I doubt there exists any supernational will for it to be stopped.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
What did Kemi do at pmqs which was so egregious. And so much worse than Jenrick might have been.
No way, the thumping would have been even bigger. They needed a proper primary process to get to the right candidate and policy platform.
That might have helped, but don't forget the most likely winner of the Primary process was Gavin Newsom, and he's worse than Harris.
Have any incumbent governments held onto their majority in the post Ukraine/Covid inflation world?
That the fundamental challenge. Voters everywhere have gotten poorer in the last four years, irrespective of who was in charge. And they have reacted by kicking incumbents.
It's happened in Poland, in the UK, in South Africa, in Argentina, in India, and in Japan. It happened in France.
And where elections haven't happened yet, incumbents are almost universally unpopular, having been blamed for the economic malaise.
On the other hand that would now mean Newsom would have lost like Harris and Dems would now be looking at a primary process in three years time without Newsom.
They need a Bill Clinton circa 1991.
No one has basically heard of him/her but they have the magic stardust with retail politics.
Their next candidate has, imho, absolutely gotta have the retail magic with working class voters.
Are the Dems too far gone into identity land for this to happen??
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Joseph Conrad is always worth reading. Just started one of his short stories. As a Pole, from a political family, who made his living writing in English, he was also unusually politically prescient. Nothing in the last few years would have surprised him. From Wiki:
"The most extensive and ambitious political statement that Conrad ever made was his 1905 essay, "Autocracy and War", whose starting point was the Russo-Japanese War (he finished the article a month before the Battle of Tsushima Strait). The essay begins with a statement about Russia's incurable weakness and ends with warnings against Prussia, the dangerous aggressor in a future European war. For Russia he predicted a violent outburst in the near future, but Russia's lack of democratic traditions and the backwardness of her masses made it impossible for the revolution to have a salutary effect. Conrad regarded the formation of a representative government in Russia as unfeasible and foresaw a transition from autocracy to dictatorship. He saw western Europe as torn by antagonisms engendered by economic rivalry and commercial selfishness. In vain might a Russian revolution seek advice or help from a materialistic and egoistic western Europe that armed itself in preparation for wars far more brutal than those of the past.[106]
"Conrad's distrust of democracy sprang from his doubts whether the propagation of democracy as an aim in itself could solve any problems. He thought that, in view of the weakness of human nature and of the "criminal" character of society, democracy offered boundless opportunities for demagogues and charlatans.[108] Conrad kept his distance from partisan politics, and never voted in British national elections.[109]"
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
What did Kemi do at pmqs which was so egregious. And so much worse than Jenrick might have been.
She seemed ok to me for a first go. Nervous. But otherwise ok. People are too quick to judgement these days.
Looks as if Dem Senate candidates have won MI, WI, AZ and NV - all states Trump won (or appears to have won).
In PA, Dem Senate candidate is currently 0.4% behind and race not yet called (Trump won by 1.9%).
So Dem Senate candidates significantly outperforming Harris across all key states - and Dems would have been within wafer thin margin of winning Presidency if based on Senate votes.
Joseph Conrad is always worth reading. Just started one of his short stories. As a Pole, from a political family, who made his living writing in English, he was also unusually politically prescient. Nothing in the last few years would have surprised him. From Wiki:
"The most extensive and ambitious political statement that Conrad ever made was his 1905 essay, "Autocracy and War", whose starting point was the Russo-Japanese War (he finished the article a month before the Battle of Tsushima Strait). The essay begins with a statement about Russia's incurable weakness and ends with warnings against Prussia, the dangerous aggressor in a future European war. For Russia he predicted a violent outburst in the near future, but Russia's lack of democratic traditions and the backwardness of her masses made it impossible for the revolution to have a salutary effect. Conrad regarded the formation of a representative government in Russia as unfeasible and foresaw a transition from autocracy to dictatorship. He saw western Europe as torn by antagonisms engendered by economic rivalry and commercial selfishness. In vain might a Russian revolution seek advice or help from a materialistic and egoistic western Europe that armed itself in preparation for wars far more brutal than those of the past.[106]
"Conrad's distrust of democracy sprang from his doubts whether the propagation of democracy as an aim in itself could solve any problems. He thought that, in view of the weakness of human nature and of the "criminal" character of society, democracy offered boundless opportunities for demagogues and charlatans.[108] Conrad kept his distance from partisan politics, and never voted in British national elections.[109]"
Conrad is one of the great literature masters. English not first language and yet, what a writer!!
No way, the thumping would have been even bigger. They needed a proper primary process to get to the right candidate and policy platform.
That might have helped, but don't forget the most likely winner of the Primary process was Gavin Newsom, and he's worse than Harris.
Have any incumbent governments held onto their majority in the post Ukraine/Covid inflation world?
That the fundamental challenge. Voters everywhere have gotten poorer in the last four years, irrespective of who was in charge. And they have reacted by kicking incumbents.
It's happened in Poland, in the UK, in South Africa, in Argentina, in India, and in Japan. It happened in France.
And where elections haven't happened yet, incumbents are almost universally unpopular, having been blamed for the economic malaise.
Yep. At some point in this campaign I thought the fundamental unsuitability of Donald Trump would override the “iron law of economic competency.” But I suspect that was just my wishful thinking. FT had two charts yesterday - migration numbers and inflation numbers under Biden and under Trump mark one.
Of course it’s not fair - Migration was down at the arse end of Trump’s first presidency because of COVID, and inflation rose post COVID because states had splurged money post COVID and the Ukraine effect. But, if you are explaining you are losing.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
No way, the thumping would have been even bigger. They needed a proper primary process to get to the right candidate and policy platform.
That might have helped, but don't forget the most likely winner of the Primary process was Gavin Newsom, and he's worse than Harris.
Have any incumbent governments held onto their majority in the post Ukraine/Covid inflation world?
That the fundamental challenge. Voters everywhere have gotten poorer in the last four years, irrespective of who was in charge. And they have reacted by kicking incumbents.
It's happened in Poland, in the UK, in South Africa, in Argentina, in India, and in Japan. It happened in France.
And where elections haven't happened yet, incumbents are almost universally unpopular, having been blamed for the economic malaise.
On the other hand that would now mean Newsom would have lost like Harris and Dems would now be looking at a primary process in three years time without Newsom.
They need a Bill Clinton circa 1991.
No one has basically heard of him/her but they have the magic stardust with retail politics.
Their next candidate has, imho, absolutely gotta have the retail magic with working class voters.
Are the Dems too far gone into identity land for this to happen??
Said 'Bill Clinton-lookalike' is, I suggest, at best an ambitious Lieutenant Governor or, dare I say it State Attorney General, somewhere. We'll start to see him, or her, moving onto the national stage in six or so months time.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Ah the Emotional Hedge. Opposite of wishcasting. I generally try to avoid that but I'd be £££ better off if I'd succumbed in this case. As it is I had some hedges on which kept the net loss down but it was still my worst ever betting result from a political event.
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Ah the Emotional Hedge. Opposite of wishcasting. I generally try to avoid that but I'd be £££ better off if I'd succumbed in this case. As it is I had some hedges on which kept the net loss down but it was still my worst ever betting result from a political event.
It's the bet on the no-score draw philosophy at football. At least by doing that you have something to look forward to if the 90 minutes is boring...
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Ah the Emotional Hedge. Opposite of wishcasting. I generally try to avoid that but I'd be £££ better off if I'd succumbed in this case. As it is I had some hedges on which kept the net loss down but it was still my worst ever betting result from a political event.
It's the bet on the no-score draw philosophy at football. At least by doing that you have something to look forward to if the 90 minutes is boring...
Then you sit through a borefest and the ball bobbles in off a divot in stoppage time...
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Ah the Emotional Hedge. Opposite of wishcasting. I generally try to avoid that but I'd be £££ better off if I'd succumbed in this case. As it is I had some hedges on which kept the net loss down but it was still my worst ever betting result from a political event.
It's the bet on the no-score draw philosophy at football. At least by doing that you have something to look forward to if the 90 minutes is boring...
Then you sit through a borefest and the ball bobbles in off a divot in stoppage time...
Yep been there done that - with the opposition scoring at the other end so you don't even see it...
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation from the White House for the first time since Donald Trump's election win at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT)
Go on Joe - pardon all the illegals!
He'll probably say that he's disappointed President Putin has been re-elected to office, but we're a democracy and must accept the result - end quote.
There might be quite a bit of truth in such a Freudian slip
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
Looks as if Dem Senate candidates have won MI, WI, AZ and NV - all states Trump won (or appears to have won).
In PA, Dem Senate candidate is currently 0.4% behind and race not yet called (Trump won by 1.9%).
So Dem Senate candidates significantly outperforming Harris across all key states - and Dems would have been within wafer thin margin of winning Presidency if based on Senate votes.
Speaking off the US Senate, and not directly related but it stirred a thought in me...
What benefit do Sanders and King get from pretending to be independents?
Counselling is OTT. I mean, I was in bits, truly I was, but some sleep and a bowl of porridge pretty much sorted me out. The outcome IS a tragedy though. On several levels it is but I'd offer this one as the biggie:
Donald Trump tried his damnedest to overturn the 2020 election. Via spurious legal challenges, intimidation of officials, smearing of the electoral process with lies and disinformation, and finally incitement to violence, he sought to stay in power after being voted out. That should have disbarred him from ever standing again and the GOP could have ensured that he didn't. Instead they caved and went back to him.
So, two bad actors here. Donald Trump and the Republican Party. You like to see wrongdoing punished, don't you? In an ideal world you do anyway. Of course it's not an ideal world and people get away with things. That's life. But that's not what has happened. What's happened is that Donald Trump is back as president and the GOP have had their best election for decades, WH, PV, EC, Senate, House. They've smashed it.
Upshot? The egregious behaviour of this man and that political party has not only gone unpunished it has been rewarded. I find that revolting.
Nah. Shows his dedication to the cause. He wants to make America great again so much he is willing to go to extreme lengths to do so.
Go The Trump.
Incredible as it may seem, some of his more 'passionate' supporters believe exactly that.
Counselling is OTT. I mean, I was in bits, truly I was, but some sleep and a bowl of porridge pretty much sorted me out. The outcome IS a tragedy though. On several levels it is but I'd offer this one as the biggie:
Donald Trump tried his damnedest to overturn the 2020 election. Via spurious legal challenges, intimidation of officials, smearing of the electoral process with lies and disinformation, and finally incitement to violence, he sought to stay in power after being voted out. That should have disbarred him from ever standing again and the GOP could have ensured that he didn't. Instead they caved and went back to him.
So, two bad actors here. Donald Trump and the Republican Party. You like to see wrongdoing punished, don't you? In an ideal world you do anyway. Of course it's not an ideal world and people get away with things. That's life. But that's not what has happened. What's happened is that Donald Trump is back as president and the GOP have had their best election for decades, WH, PV, EC, Senate, House. They've smashed it.
Upshot? The egregious behaviour of this man and that political party has not only gone unpunished it has been rewarded. I find that revolting.
Nah. Shows his dedication to the cause. He wants to make America great again so much he is willing to go to extreme lengths to do so.
Go The Trump.
Incredible as it may seem, some of his more 'passionate' supporters believe exactly that.
Incredible. And you of course know what he believes.
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
Ah the Emotional Hedge. Opposite of wishcasting. I generally try to avoid that but I'd be £££ better off if I'd succumbed in this case. As it is I had some hedges on which kept the net loss down but it was still my worst ever betting result from a political event.
It's the bet on the no-score draw philosophy at football. At least by doing that you have something to look forward to if the 90 minutes is boring...
Can be, yes. Also the "never bet on your own team" school of thought.
Im surprised you think Im, holding back. Ive been saying Reeves is useless since July to gasps of horror for the the PB Lefties. Wait for the budget I was told it will put it all right, Well we've had the budget and it was a lead balloon.
Nothing for growth Laughable efforts on housing Job destroying taxes on business And a big dollop of inflation to come.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
They need to change the postal vote rule they count the votes that are there on the day.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
In California, for example, they're also counting the US Senate and House elections, State Senate and Assembly elections, and the 10(?) separate statewide Propositions. On top of that, much of the state will have had countywide measures and council elections, citywide mayoral elections, and various supervisory posts. Many places also had various special district, school board, and various other regional things.
i only bet on results I don't want to happen. The more I don't want the result the more I put on and I've just won five bets in a row.
The first three I got very good odds. Man City are always big favourites. They lost three games on the trot for the first time in years.
Bet number four was Kemi B. The odds weren't good but I put a lot on. The world and his wife knew she'd beat Jenrick but I really don't like her and if you watched PMQ's you'd know why.
Finally Trump. The result no-one wanted. I'd have sacrificed everything I won and more for that result not to come up and even as I count my winnings the pain still doesn't abate....
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
LOL the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up
The dads don't count then?
A bit too trans.
The dads cant get pregnant
Well, no, but they still count as parents. Or are you saying that children inevitably take on the politics of their mothers?
Im saying it's a stupid thing to do.
But you said "the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up". That simply doesn't make sense, given that we're talking about the issue (in the Biblical sense) of Republican dads and Democrat moms. The only way it makes sense if you think kids adopt their mothers' politics.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
LOL the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up
The dads don't count then?
A bit too trans.
The dads cant get pregnant
Well, no, but they still count as parents. Or are you saying that children inevitably take on the politics of their mothers?
Im saying it's a stupid thing to do.
But you said "the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up". That simply doesn't make sense, given that we're talking about the issue (in the Biblical sense) of Republican dads and Democrat moms.
Right so family tensions, divorce and demographic collapse are good things ?
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
LOL the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up
The dads don't count then?
A bit too trans.
The dads cant get pregnant
Well, no, but they still count as parents. Or are you saying that children inevitably take on the politics of their mothers?
Im saying it's a stupid thing to do.
But you said "the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up". That simply doesn't make sense, given that we're talking about the issue (in the Biblical sense) of Republican dads and Democrat moms.
Right so family tensions, divorce and demographic collapse are good things ?
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
India counted 642 million votes inside 48 hours earlier this year.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
LOL the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up
The dads don't count then?
A bit too trans.
The dads cant get pregnant
Well, no, but they still count as parents. Or are you saying that children inevitably take on the politics of their mothers?
Im saying it's a stupid thing to do.
But you said "the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up". That simply doesn't make sense, given that we're talking about the issue (in the Biblical sense) of Republican dads and Democrat moms.
Right so family tensions, divorce and demographic collapse are good things ?
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
LOL the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up
The dads don't count then?
A bit too trans.
The dads cant get pregnant
Well, no, but they still count as parents. Or are you saying that children inevitably take on the politics of their mothers?
Im saying it's a stupid thing to do.
But you said "the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up". That simply doesn't make sense, given that we're talking about the issue (in the Biblical sense) of Republican dads and Democrat moms.
Right so family tensions, divorce and demographic collapse are good things ?
Seems daft.
That was a complete non-sequitur. Are you an AI?
Ill give you some time to work it out.
Hmm. AI's do tend to avoid answering simple, direct questions, I find.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
LOL the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up
The dads don't count then?
A bit too trans.
The dads cant get pregnant
Well, no, but they still count as parents. Or are you saying that children inevitably take on the politics of their mothers?
Im saying it's a stupid thing to do.
But you said "the prospect of fewer liberals children can only cheer Trump up". That simply doesn't make sense, given that we're talking about the issue (in the Biblical sense) of Republican dads and Democrat moms.
Right so family tensions, divorce and demographic collapse are good things ?
The Harris EC, Trump PV vote could easily have won.
Trump has won: PA by 1.9% MI by 1.5% WI by 0.8%
If Harris had won all three, she wins the EC.
Trump currently leads popular vote by 3.3%.
Looks like that will fall by about 1% when all votes counted - ie lead will fall by about 1.5m. So final popular vote lead will be about 2.3%.
Then a uniform swing of 1% across the whole country (ie Harris +1, Trump -1) and Harris wins PA, MI and WI, and Trump still wins popular vote.
So @HYUFD's suggestion of Harris possibly winning the EC and Trump the PV wasn't far off then. Seemed unlikely so a good spot even if it didn't come off.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
India counted 642 million votes inside 48 hours earlier this year.
All electronic voting and counting, and only voting for the equivalent of the House, no other offices on the ballot AFAIK.
I'm not sure about this "who are your neighbours voting for?" methodology. If someone asked me about my neighbours in East Ham I'd say "those who vote will all vote Labour".
As it turned out, half didn't vote and only half of those who did vote voted Labour so it's an inexact science at best I think.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
India counted 642 million votes inside 48 hours earlier this year.
All electronic voting and counting, and only voting for the equivalent of the House, no other offices on the ballot AFAIK.
The Harris EC, Trump PV vote could easily have won.
Trump has won: PA by 1.9% MI by 1.5% WI by 0.8%
If Harris had won all three, she wins the EC.
Trump currently leads popular vote by 3.3%.
Looks like that will fall by about 1% when all votes counted - ie lead will fall by about 1.5m. So final popular vote lead will be about 2.3%.
Then a uniform swing of 1% across the whole country (ie Harris +1, Trump -1) and Harris wins PA, MI and WI, and Trump still wins popular vote.
So @hyifd's suggestion of Harris possibly winning the EC and Trump the PV wasn't far off then. Seemed unlikely so a good spot even if it didn't come off.
On election night it was 95/1 for that outcome and I put a few small bets on it just in case.
I'm not sure about this "who are your neighbours voting for?" methodology. If someone asked me about my neighbours in East Ham I'd say "those who vote will all vote Labour".
As it turned out, half didn't vote and only half of those who did vote voted Labour so it's an inexact science at best I think.
That's because you're answering honestly. I am assuming 'My neighbours are voting Trump' is a polite way of saying 'I am voting Trump'. It was a shy Trump detector.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
In California, for example, they're also counting the US Senate and House elections, State Senate and Assembly elections, and the 10(?) separate statewide Propositions. On top of that, much of the state will have had countywide measures and council elections, citywide mayoral elections, and various supervisory posts. Many places also had various special district, school board, and various other regional things.
The counts are truly mammoth operations.
Pretty sure there are way more things to vote for at US elections than any other country in the world.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
One thing to watch is the emerging diplomatic crisis for the UK, caused by the election of Trump, and which will probably exist for as long as the Labour party are in government. I just don't know how the Labour government and its MP's will be able to reconcile themselves to what has happened. It is one of many problems that I think could ultimately lead to an early election.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
In California, for example, they're also counting the US Senate and House elections, State Senate and Assembly elections, and the 10(?) separate statewide Propositions. On top of that, much of the state will have had countywide measures and council elections, citywide mayoral elections, and various supervisory posts. Many places also had various special district, school board, and various other regional things.
The counts are truly mammoth operations.
Pretty sure there are way more things to vote for at US elections than any other country in the world.
Is there anywhere that even comes close? Granted we have a disproportionate focus on the USA for understandable and less understandable reasons, but I defer to our travelling PBers (who I assume check up on electoral matters when going through bars in Santiago, Seoul, or Sosnowiec) as to whether peopel routinely vote for the local coroner or comptroller.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
They are. Almost all MAGAs are bad news. Their equivalents outside America too. This brings me to another (and imo underappreciated) downside of Nov 5th. Which is that just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump.
There is (rightly) much talk about the obvious macro concerns, things like the threat of creeping fascism, the potential consequences of his policies, tariffs, blowing out the deficit, ditching Ukraine, etc, but there is also an impact at the micro behavioural level. Imagine hundreds of millions of these types of people all feeling good about themselves, feeling validated, empowered, and behaving accordingly. That will have (impossible to measure but in aggregate very serious) consequences.
Still, it's done now and there's little point banging on about it. Least not this aspect. It's true but it's inflammatory and gets us nowhere. Let's calm down like Joe says.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
They are. Almost all MAGAs are bad news. Their equivalents outside America too. This brings me to another (and imo underappreciated) downside of Nov 5th. Which is that just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump.
There is (rightly) much talk about the obvious macro concerns, things like the threat of creeping fascism, the potential consequences of his policies, tariffs, blowing out the deficit, ditching Ukraine, etc, but there is also an impact at the micro behavioural level. Imagine hundreds of millions of these types of people all feeling good about themselves, feeling validated, empowered, and behaving accordingly. That will have (impossible to measure but in aggregate very serious) consequences.
Still, it's done now and there's little point banging on about it. Least not this aspect. It's true but it's inflammatory and gets us nowhere. Let's calm down like Joe says.
" just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump."
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
In California, for example, they're also counting the US Senate and House elections, State Senate and Assembly elections, and the 10(?) separate statewide Propositions. On top of that, much of the state will have had countywide measures and council elections, citywide mayoral elections, and various supervisory posts. Many places also had various special district, school board, and various other regional things.
The counts are truly mammoth operations.
Pretty sure there are way more things to vote for at US elections than any other country in the world.
Is there anywhere that even comes close? Granted we have a disproportionate focus on the USA for understandable and less understandable reasons, but I defer to our travelling PBers (who I assume check up on electoral matters when going through bars in Santiago, Seoul, or Sosnowiec) as to whether peopel routinely vote for the local coroner or comptroller.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200 Lab 180 Con 160 LD 70 Others 40
I suspect you'd be relying on the Tory party splitting, with a decent chunk defecting directly to Refuk.
It's that second part that's the more unlikely aspect, I think. You could imagine a handful of MPs defecting, but if it were dozens they'd more likely form a separate party or bloc (which might well go on to form an alliance with Refuk, but I doubt that would count for the purposes of this bet).
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200 Lab 180 Con 160 LD 70 Others 40
I don't see how the Cons would gain seats if Reform are taking enough of their vote to be the largest party.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200 Lab 180 Con 160 LD 70 Others 40
For Reform (or the LibDems) there will be a tipping point somewhere in the 20s of percents where they start gains scores of seats; and the reverse for the Tories and Labour. We’re not so far from that tipping point, so I agree that this scenario is conceivable, if unlikely. Unlikely because of the campaign and old habits dying hard.
I figure we're knocking around 1m off Harris's popular vote deficit by the time we're done.
Probably. Still find it amazing that the most powerful country in the world can't count votes more quickly. I know they have this rule about postal votes being accepted at any time as long as they were posted by election day.
In California, for example, they're also counting the US Senate and House elections, State Senate and Assembly elections, and the 10(?) separate statewide Propositions. On top of that, much of the state will have had countywide measures and council elections, citywide mayoral elections, and various supervisory posts. Many places also had various special district, school board, and various other regional things.
The counts are truly mammoth operations.
Pretty sure there are way more things to vote for at US elections than any other country in the world.
Is there anywhere that even comes close? Granted we have a disproportionate focus on the USA for understandable and less understandable reasons, but I defer to our travelling PBers (who I assume check up on electoral matters when going through bars in Santiago, Seoul, or Sosnowiec) as to whether peopel routinely vote for the local coroner or comptroller.
Switzerland is probably the closest (isn't their constitution based on the Californian one?) - federal national council, federal council of states, cantonal councils, and communal councils. All the executive posts at each level are collective bodies, with each member being elected. And then there are referendums at all three levels, too.
So they're not quite at the Deputy Dog-catcher level, but it probably gets closer than anywhere else.
This is an example of the conspiracy theory on the internet about "missing votes", all because California, etc count their votes so slowly. This post has had more than 10 million views.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200 Lab 180 Con 160 LD 70 Others 40
I don't see how the Cons would gain seats if Reform are taking enough of their vote to be the largest party.
It would have to be a scenario where the Tories won back a chunk of Cameron 2010 type voters, but the Brexit coalition went Reform and undid Labour.
Im surprised you think Im, holding back. Ive been saying Reeves is useless since July to gasps of horror for the the PB Lefties. Wait for the budget I was told it will put it all right, Well we've had the budget and it was a lead balloon.
Nothing for growth Laughable efforts on housing Job destroying taxes on business And a big dollop of inflation to come.
Really she needs put out to grass.
The central problem with the Budget was the national insurance hike. It's been presented as an effort to get businesses to contribute more rather than workers, but in practice all it will do is weaken smaller employers, whilst larger ones will seek to recoup their losses in the medium term through wage suppression. Yet more years of stagnating incomes from yet another jam tomorrow administration beckon. This is unlikely to end well for the Government, as both the Tories and the US Democrats could tell them.
At least this lot actually understand that small state fantasies aren't sustainable when your population is as old, knackered, fat, sick and altogether dependent as ours is. But their attempts to refinance the crumbling state are half-arsed and still, ultimately, rely on the rinsing of earned incomes - it's just that they've disguised the fact by taking the money off employers and inviting them to recover their losses from their employees. Meanwhile, in other respects Continuity Toryism reigns: the Triple Lock is maintained as a permanent fixture, whilst the two child cap remains in place and the Government seeks to cut several billion pounds off the bill for sickness and disability benefits.
The Government has taken baby steps in the right direction - with some increases in CGT rates and the widening of death duties - but these are tentative and wholly inadequate to the scale of the difficulties that it faces. Assets are still taxed at a fraction of the rate of wages; most estates will still be transmitted entirely tax free. At the fundamental level, when you strip away the baubles, this is simply yet another administration the primary function of which is to facilitate the ongoing transfer of wealth from the poor and the young to the rich and the old. It's an improvement on the dreadful mess that came before, but fast forward five years and the odds are that the average working person will be no better off than they are now, and still with no relief from the stagnation in sight.
I'm not sure about this "who are your neighbours voting for?" methodology. If someone asked me about my neighbours in East Ham I'd say "those who vote will all vote Labour".
As it turned out, half didn't vote and only half of those who did vote voted Labour so it's an inexact science at best I think.
East Ham must be a remarkably tight-knit, gregarious community if you and your neighbours are able to form an opinion about each other's political behaviour. Out here in the sticks the nearest we get is a laconic discussion about bin collections from which it's hard to infer much else with any confidence.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Not that I think it's a value bet, but Reform don't necessarily have to get anywhere near 326 for a most seats bet to pay out.
It's not completely impossible if Labour continue to flounder, and the Tories make no progress we might get back a result something like this (I've ignored the 18 NI seats for simplicity)
Which would win a Ref - most seats bet, without them being likely to get anywhere near government. (Presumably we'd get some sort of rainbow alliance which would last about a week before falling apart like an cheap flat pack wardrobe under the weight of it's own contradictions).
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200 Lab 180 Con 160 LD 70 Others 40
I don't see how the Cons would gain seats if Reform are taking enough of their vote to be the largest party.
Because most of Reform's targets are Labour-held at present?
I am fully supportive of changing the planning system to allow building anything without constraint.
But it’s not going to be what the Tories want.
For sure. On my 6,608 mile road trip around the US, I only saw one solar farm. I drove across sunbaked, boring, featureless, devoid-of-scenery plains in multiple states, yet the one solar farm I saw had been carved out of the woodland beside the French Broad river, in a scenic spot that in a European country would be protected in some way. Right across the river from the lover’s leap trail and viewpoint, where I was sitting having hiked up the hill and was wondering why they would put a solar farm in probably the least appropriate spot I had seen during my travels around the US. And on an impracticable north facing slope, too, such that all the panels were on stilts angling them uphill.
But of course, in the US, there is no “they”, who had allowed the development there. Just a landowner, free to do what he (or she) wants, however inappropriate or unsightly the consequences.
In Scotland, the local election results are recorded down to ballot box level, so you can actually see how your neighbours (in the broadest sense) voted.
Do they still do that for the smaller islands or merge them for privacy, I wonder.
If the number in a ballot box is less than 200 (I think) they mix them with other boxes.
Organisations, however moral their mission, inevitably prioritise themselves over that mission - evidence number 3,603,321
A British barrister's "horrific" and violent abuse of more than 100 children and young men was covered up within the Church of England for decades, according to the conclusion of a damning report.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
They are. Almost all MAGAs are bad news. Their equivalents outside America too. This brings me to another (and imo underappreciated) downside of Nov 5th. Which is that just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
They are. Almost all MAGAs are bad news. Their equivalents outside America too. This brings me to another (and imo underappreciated) downside of Nov 5th. Which is that just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump.
There is (rightly) much talk about the obvious macro concerns, things like the threat of creeping fascism, the potential consequences of his policies, tariffs, blowing out the deficit, ditching Ukraine, etc, but there is also an impact at the micro behavioural level. Imagine hundreds of millions of these types of people all feeling good about themselves, feeling validated, empowered, and behaving accordingly. That will have (impossible to measure but in aggregate very serious) consequences.
Still, it's done now and there's little point banging on about it. Least not this aspect. It's true but it's inflammatory and gets us nowhere. Let's calm down like Joe says.
LOL you are displaying impeccable woke credentials your family and friends back home would be proud of you.
"Liberal women going on sex strike over Trump win Disgruntled female voters draw inspiration from Korean 4B movement to take revenge against men who voted Republican"
They are. Almost all MAGAs are bad news. Their equivalents outside America too. This brings me to another (and imo underappreciated) downside of Nov 5th. Which is that just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump.
There is (rightly) much talk about the obvious macro concerns, things like the threat of creeping fascism, the potential consequences of his policies, tariffs, blowing out the deficit, ditching Ukraine, etc, but there is also an impact at the micro behavioural level. Imagine hundreds of millions of these types of people all feeling good about themselves, feeling validated, empowered, and behaving accordingly. That will have (impossible to measure but in aggregate very serious) consequences.
Still, it's done now and there's little point banging on about it. Least not this aspect. It's true but it's inflammatory and gets us nowhere. Let's calm down like Joe says.
" just about every little racist, xenophobe, misogynist and bigot the whole world over will be happy about the re-election of Donald Trump."
Does that include Dawn Butler ?
I'll pass on this since I'm in the business of reducing the temperature.
Organisations, however moral their mission, inevitably prioritise themselves over that mission - evidence number 3,603,321
A British barrister's "horrific" and violent abuse of more than 100 children and young men was covered up within the Church of England for decades, according to the conclusion of a damning report.
The Conservatives are favourites to win most seats at next GE:
Con 2.38 Lab 2.48 Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
The Tory/Labour odds show it's a coin toss between them, which feels about right.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Note the odds are for Most Seats, not to get a majority.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200 Lab 180 Con 160 LD 70 Others 40
I don't see how the Cons would gain seats if Reform are taking enough of their vote to be the largest party.
As Reform would have gained more 2024 Labour voters than 2024 Tory voters, which is what current polls are showing.
Indeed if the LDs and Tories largely stayed still in terms of seats but Reform swept the redwall seats Boris won but Labour won in July and added a few hard Leave seats even the Tories under Boris could not reach to their current MPs too, Reform most seats and Farage PM of a minority government propped up by Badenoch and the DUP/TUV is not impossible
Organisations, however moral their mission, inevitably prioritise themselves over that mission - evidence number 3,603,321
A British barrister's "horrific" and violent abuse of more than 100 children and young men was covered up within the Church of England for decades, according to the conclusion of a damning report.
Organisations, however moral their mission, inevitably prioritise themselves over that mission - evidence number 3,603,321
A British barrister's "horrific" and violent abuse of more than 100 children and young men was covered up within the Church of England for decades, according to the conclusion of a damning report.
A road trip in the US is like waking up in Norfolk, driving along a dual carriageway at motorway speed the whole day, and by the afternoon finding that you’re still in Norfolk.
Comments
https://www.972mag.com/exterminate-expel-resettle-israel-northern-gaza/
They need a Bill Clinton circa 1991.
No one has basically heard of him/her but they have the magic stardust with retail politics.
Their next candidate has, imho, absolutely gotta have the retail magic with working class voters.
Are the Dems too far gone into identity land for this to happen??
Youve always been a MAGA man
"The most extensive and ambitious political statement that Conrad ever made was his 1905 essay, "Autocracy and War", whose starting point was the Russo-Japanese War (he finished the article a month before the Battle of Tsushima Strait). The essay begins with a statement about Russia's incurable weakness and ends with warnings against Prussia, the dangerous aggressor in a future European war. For Russia he predicted a violent outburst in the near future, but Russia's lack of democratic traditions and the backwardness of her masses made it impossible for the revolution to have a salutary effect. Conrad regarded the formation of a representative government in Russia as unfeasible and foresaw a transition from autocracy to dictatorship. He saw western Europe as torn by antagonisms engendered by economic rivalry and commercial selfishness. In vain might a Russian revolution seek advice or help from a materialistic and egoistic western Europe that armed itself in preparation for wars far more brutal than those of the past.[106]
"Conrad's distrust of democracy sprang from his doubts whether the propagation of democracy as an aim in itself could solve any problems. He thought that, in view of the weakness of human nature and of the "criminal" character of society, democracy offered boundless opportunities for demagogues and charlatans.[108] Conrad kept his distance from partisan politics, and never voted in British national elections.[109]"
She's totally shit
In PA, Dem Senate candidate is currently 0.4% behind and race not yet called (Trump won by 1.9%).
So Dem Senate candidates significantly outperforming Harris across all key states - and Dems would have been within wafer thin margin of winning Presidency if based on Senate votes.
Of course it’s not fair - Migration was down at the arse end of Trump’s first presidency because of COVID, and inflation rose post COVID because states had splurged money post COVID and the Ukraine effect. But, if you are explaining you are losing.
"Queen Elizabeth II kept a diary throughout her rain but said she had time only to record events"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/11/07/queen-elizabeth-iis-final-diary-entry-revealed/
I mean - £42 million?
She probably thinks the same about you..
Con 2.38
Lab 2.48
Ref 5.6
Those odds seem surprising to me.
Not much faith being shown in Labour - and that's despite the expectation of the right remaining badly split.
What benefit do Sanders and King get from pretending to be independents?
California 60%
Oregon 78%
Washington 71%
Alaska 72%
Arizona 70%
Colorado 82%
Utah 70%
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Nothing for growth
Laughable efforts on housing
Job destroying taxes on business
And a big dollop of inflation to come.
Really she needs put out to grass.
The dads cant get pregnant
The mystery trader who calls himself ‘Théo’ is on track for a payday of nearly $50 million"
https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d
The counts are truly mammoth operations.
I think it's the Reform odds that are really suprising. I know things are volatile right now but going from 5 seats to 326 and leapfrogging five other parties in the process is surely less likely than 15.2% or whatever?
Maybe I'd back them at 560:1.
Trump has won:
PA by 1.9%
MI by 1.5%
WI by 0.8%
If Harris had won all three, she wins the EC.
Trump currently leads popular vote by 3.3%.
Looks like that will fall by about 1% when all votes counted - ie lead will fall by about 1.5m. So final popular vote lead will be about 2.3%.
Then a uniform swing of 1% across the whole country (ie Harris +1, Trump -1) and Harris wins PA, MI and WI, and Trump still wins popular vote.
Seems daft.
I'm not sure about this "who are your neighbours voting for?" methodology. If someone asked me about my neighbours in East Ham I'd say "those who vote will all vote Labour".
As it turned out, half didn't vote and only half of those who did vote voted Labour so it's an inexact science at best I think.
If Reform were to get most seats I would have thought the likelihood would be that there would be a huge 4 way seat split, eg
Ref 200
Lab 180
Con 160
LD 70
Others 40
Harris 68,110,984 (47.6%)
There is (rightly) much talk about the obvious macro concerns, things like the threat of creeping fascism, the potential consequences of his policies, tariffs, blowing out the deficit, ditching Ukraine, etc, but there is also an impact at the micro behavioural level. Imagine hundreds of millions of these types of people all feeling good about themselves, feeling validated, empowered, and behaving accordingly. That will have (impossible to measure but in aggregate very serious) consequences.
Still, it's done now and there's little point banging on about it. Least not this aspect. It's true but it's inflammatory and gets us nowhere. Let's calm down like Joe says.
Does that include Dawn Butler ?
It's that second part that's the more unlikely aspect, I think. You could imagine a handful of MPs defecting, but if it were dozens they'd more likely form a separate party or bloc (which might well go on to form an alliance with Refuk, but I doubt that would count for the purposes of this bet).
@DegenRolf
When there is no danger of being caught, women screw over men more than other women, while men do not favor any gender. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/19485506241285079"
https://x.com/DegenRolf/status/1854545276444233931
So they're not quite at the Deputy Dog-catcher level, but it probably gets closer than anywhere else.
"Carpe Donktum🔹
@CarpeDonktum
Trump got 3 million fewer votes than 2020.
Kamala Harris got 15 million less.
Where did 15 million people go??
Last edited
3:56 PM · Nov 6, 2024
·
10.2M Views"
https://x.com/CarpeDonktum/status/1854191245888749848
At least this lot actually understand that small state fantasies aren't sustainable when your population is as old, knackered, fat, sick and altogether dependent as ours is. But their attempts to refinance the crumbling state are half-arsed and still, ultimately, rely on the rinsing of earned incomes - it's just that they've disguised the fact by taking the money off employers and inviting them to recover their losses from their employees. Meanwhile, in other respects Continuity Toryism reigns: the Triple Lock is maintained as a permanent fixture, whilst the two child cap remains in place and the Government seeks to cut several billion pounds off the bill for sickness and disability benefits.
The Government has taken baby steps in the right direction - with some increases in CGT rates and the widening of death duties - but these are tentative and wholly inadequate to the scale of the difficulties that it faces. Assets are still taxed at a fraction of the rate of wages; most estates will still be transmitted entirely tax free. At the fundamental level, when you strip away the baubles, this is simply yet another administration the primary function of which is to facilitate the ongoing transfer of wealth from the poor and the young to the rich and the old. It's an improvement on the dreadful mess that came before, but fast forward five years and the odds are that the average working person will be no better off than they are now, and still with no relief from the stagnation in sight.
It's not completely impossible if Labour continue to flounder, and the Tories make no progress we might get back a result something like this (I've ignored the 18 NI seats for simplicity)
PC:8
Green:50
SNP:51
LD:127
Lab:131
Tory:132
Ref:133
Which would win a Ref - most seats bet, without them being likely to get anywhere near government. (Presumably we'd get some sort of rainbow alliance which would last about a week before falling apart like an cheap flat pack wardrobe under the weight of it's own contradictions).
But of course, in the US, there is no “they”, who had allowed the development there. Just a landowner, free to do what he (or she) wants, however inappropriate or unsightly the consequences.
A British barrister's "horrific" and violent abuse of more than 100 children and young men was covered up within the Church of England for decades, according to the conclusion of a damning report.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cje0y3gqw1po
Is of course what is motivating you.
But really, no need to try so hard.
The true winner of the 2024 US presidential election was actually Dominic Sandbrook.
Indeed if the LDs and Tories largely stayed still in terms of seats but Reform swept the redwall seats Boris won but Labour won in July and added a few hard Leave seats even the Tories under Boris could not reach to their current MPs too, Reform most seats and Farage PM of a minority government propped up by Badenoch and the DUP/TUV is not impossible