Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump becomes American president again – politicalbetting.com
Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump becomes American president again – politicalbetting.com
Whilst the final results haven’t been confirmed as ever it is the economy, stupid, the wave that has unseated incumbent governments across the world, people seldom reward governments and parties that make them poorer. T
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The voters have spoken. The bastards.
It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.
I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.
And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.
It's hard to celebrate this result
Trump 2.0. Buckle up, gonna be a bonkers 4 years.
You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.
Thank you
I hope the UK government steps up.
There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.
An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.
Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
So far on that front we have:
- Hungary
- Almost Poland, a near miss
- Georgia
(I shan't count Turkey as it was never fully democratic).
Whether the US joins the list depends on how competent the project 2025 team are and how vigilant the remaining pillars of the US state will be.
Feck.
Why are parts of the PB in denial? Saying "and you believe this?". Yes. we believe it. And it is what America has voted for.
Anyone who said the economy polls were bad for Biden could have predicted this time and time again. That really does never change.
Do you understand anything?
What do we do now, well suck it up and deal with it. Work with what we have got.
It is the Ukrainians I feel most sorry for, so Europe mustn't let them down.
My biggest fear for the US is the future of the Supreme Court which could have decades of impact.
It's not just here. As soon as I posted some of Trump's astonishing swings and outperfomances I got accused of "being pretty pleased about it".
The blindness and ad-hom isn't just here.
https://www.trumpgolfscotland.com
Trade retaliation is an art, and can be quite fun. The key is to make it as painful as possible for the other side while limiting the pain for your own side. Things your own population don't particularly need to buy, but which your opponent really needs to sell. Trump has already made a mistake in that direction, promising flat tariffs on everything. It means he hurts American consumers and component importers, rather than following the usual playbook of hiking duties on things like Scotch whisky, French couture or Italian leather goods.
And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
All of them.
Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.
There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.
One thing that is still uncertain is the House. Decision Desk has 65% chance GOP. A clean sweep of all four major arms of government (with the Supreme Court already captured) would make the next two years even more dangerous than they would otherwise be.
The writing has been on the wall for weeks. I thought the EC would be closer, but Trump seemed to have the initiative for some time.
Anyway, lesson learned. I’m still thoroughly depressed, though.
I did go on record and says the Joe Rogan podcast could an potentially pivotal roll of the dice...
Maybe the tariffs will happen. Maybe they won't. I think it would be foolish to assume that they won't, but, equally, Trump isn't exactly a man of his word is he?
Part of the reason showed up in the polls . Some voters dislike his manner but like his policies , some think when he says terrible things he’s not really being serious and won’t carry them out .
Well they’re about to find out . The deportations will fxck farming and hospitality , tariffs will feed inflation and his pal Musk wants to gut the budget . It’s funny how Musks “ there might be hardship” got so little coverage .
Oh and to top it all JFK jnr will oversea health and turn the USA back into polio and measles infested developing country .
So for those turkeys who voted for Christmas, enjoy ! The US media have their role in all this , the sane washing was jaw dropping at times and as for Merrick Garland , he delayed the cases against Trump for so long that he was able to kick them past the election .
So yes the US voters have spoken . Trump has his mandate , no ones arguing that he doesn’t .
Let us rejoice in the UK that no matter how bad things get it will never be as bad as the USA, that there are still red lines a politician can’t cross .
But also a son of Tong, Isle of Lewis unfortunately.
The next 500 posts were about how big the population of Newcastle actually is.
Hence, today. But PB wasn’t minded to listen
I thought Harris fought an exceptional campaign. That didn't matter either. Bidenomics has delivered for the US better than the economic policies of any western government. Not enough. Media, and in particular Fox and X, have persuaded the majority that they were in dire straits when they were not. That they were in a crime wave when they were not.
Trump will now double down on the right wing majority in the SC for a generation. The Federal cases against him for keeping secrets in his bathroom and causing a riot on Jan 6th will vanish. Women's freedom will continue to be severely curtailed. Gilead approaches. Grim. Really grim. Mainly for the people of America but we will have the backwash.
I honestly did not think they would vote in sufficient numbers to go back. It doesn’t matter what motivated it, but we and the rest of the world will have to deal with it.
I will say that I stand by my belief that Harris ran a very good campaign. She did nothing wrong. From a standing start she ran an inclusive positive campaign.
The country just preferred Trump, and all that comes with him. The climate denial, the lack of respect for the natural world, the disavowal of American leadership, the trade wars and all the rest of Project 2025.
I fear for the US. I can only hope that there is sufficient commitment to democracy and rule of law in the rest of the Republican party that we can survive the mess to come.
But to be fair, if somebody has done terrible things as Trump has, how do you deal with that? He staged a coup in the Capitol. There’s no “deal with that”. It’s wrong.
The problem is that the rules do not apply to him. And I am really not convinced anymore that there is a way to deal with that.
Fair play to Boris Johnson for a moment of clarity, amidst his shameless book plugging on C4, he told them they were in danger of calling it wrong. The only route for survival is to flatter the narcissistic sex abuser and hope to dissuade him from the worse decisions.
Our thoughts should be with Ukraine, Palestinians, middle east and all US citizens who aren't advantaged, white and male.
The one on the rest of the world I'm not nearly so sure about. He might well have to get that one through the Senate, which I don't think would happen.
Asking for a friend. Far worse than multiple felony convictions and an adjudicated rape.
She's not laughing now.
According to the models I have seen such as they are, the economy that will suffer most will be the USA.
In 2016, he also came in with a number of deranged notions; he was dissuaded from carrying out some of them such as withdrawal from the Paris Agreement - though he did it just before the 2020 Election 4 years later.
I'm on at 8 on BF.
Reader, yes. Yes there is. Down a mere 0.22% to USD and up a solid 1.5% against the Euro. Any guesses which currency that might be?
I will have to reassess my positions. I thought that the female vote and abortion were going to win it for Harris, but there were a lot of very sensible people also pointing to the anti-incumbency factor which looks to have proved decisive, as it has elsewhere. I also think that a scepticism of the polls, fuelled by GE2024 and the last couple of rounds, tempted me away from believing in the shy Trump effect.
I’m not going to be disconsolate. I don’t think a Trump win is good for many reasons, but it also now means the West has to confront some hard realities.
Well! I didn't want either of them to win, but I went to bed resigned to a Harris victory and looking for the positives in that. I checked in on PB about 3am to find it was still on knife edge but already looking as though it would go the other way. I woke up this morning to a Trump victory and have to set about looking for the positives in that.
I hope it was a good night for you all, even if a surprising one.
This morning's result makes it more likely Badenoch becomes PM imho as Starmer may very well be fighting a GE in 2028 with a terrible economic situation.
Most voters probably agree.
It does show what a Mickey mouse subject that PPE is. A non-science that economics is, and as for philosophy and politics - not really subjects for adults.
Complex questions nearly always have complex answers, and those answers are often not easy ones for the electorate to swallow. Easy answers are much easier to swallow, and hence to sell.
The only problem is that simple answers to complex questions rarely work. And when they fail, it is easy for a snake-oil salesmen just to give a crass excuse for the failure, define it as another problem, and come up with another simple solution to it.
Can’t speak for the US media but the BBC similarly crap: otoh this, otoh that, but too close to call, over and over again.
The scenario where that becomes more credible is if he’s already President by the time 2028 comes around. Which is certainly quite possible.