Cat meet pigeons – politicalbetting.com

System · November 3

Cat meet pigeons – politicalbetting.com

Seltzer poll: Harris 47, Trump 44 in Iowa https://t.co/ly7ERGpvEB

TheScreamingEagles · November 3

FPT

BlancheLivermore said:
Beeb keep referring to Kemi as the "early favourite" in the Tory leadership race

I know they're journalists so don't need to understand what they're talking about, but is it actually true?

Wasn't Kemi always considered favourite iff she made it to the membership, so nobody thought she'd make it past the MPs?

IIRC she only became the betting favourite when it got to the final two

She was the early betting favourite on July 5th when Sunak resigned.

Morris_Dancer · November 3

FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.

Morris_Dancer · November 3

On-topic: hmm, cheers. I've added this to my very limited betting on the US election.

ydoethur · November 3

FPT, and actually more relevant here:

kle4 said:

Econew said:
That Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register is genuinely jaw dropping stuff. Wow.
I'm too pessimistic to believe it, but at least one org isn't herding!

If it is correct - and that's a massive 'if,' but let's consider this - you wonder if there might be a major surprise in Missouri.

That's one I'd thought of as a possible target early on - Obama nearly took it in 2008 - but assumed from the belief the race was very close would be out of reach for Harris.

It's also got an abortion ballot...and the Republican Senate candidate has been leading the drive to enforce Dobbs v Jackson.

BlancheLivermore · November 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT

BlancheLivermore said:
Beeb keep referring to Kemi as the "early favourite" in the Tory leadership race

I know they're journalists so don't need to understand what they're talking about, but is it actually true?

Wasn't Kemi always considered favourite iff she made it to the membership, so nobody thought she'd make it past the MPs?

IIRC she only became the betting favourite when it got to the final two
She was the early betting favourite on July 5th when Sunak resigned.

It must have been the commentary on here that made me think she was considered to have little chance then..

I thought I was supporting the dark-horse in the race

Maybe Night Mare would be more appropriate? Just a question of whose..

squareroot2 · November 3

Does anyone believe American polls.....

Scott_xP · November 3

@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743

IanB2 · November 3

Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.

Foxy · November 3

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....

Selzer has quite the reputation.

I have £22 at average odds of 12.15 on betfair, so £245 if Selzer is right, and topped up with a tenner at 12/1 on Ladbrokes when this dropped.

I think there is a Walz effect as well as a woman effect, but will have to see if it's real on Wednesday, and also how generalisable.

OnlyLivingBoy · November 3

Scott_xP said:
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743

I just spent over a week in the US and had a lot of conversations and heard a lot of people speaking about the election. Owing to the field I work in - finance - these were almost all male voices I heard. There was a lot of uncertainty but people generally leaned towards a Trump victory. I do think that if Harris wins (and that is still my expectation) then it will come down to women, and people who are surprised by the result will be people who haven't sought out those marginalized female voices, instead choosing to remain in a male echo chamber.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?

highwayparadise306 · November 3

Definition of the Sunbelt. The place where British and Germans fight for sunbeds in Spain on holiday. This tradition dates back long long ago.

highwayparadise306 · November 3

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Scott_xP said:
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
I just spent over a week in the US and had a lot of conversations and heard a lot of people speaking about the election. Owing to the field I work in - finance - these were almost all male voices I heard. There was a lot of uncertainty but people generally leaned towards a Trump victory. I do think that if Harris wins (and that is still my expectation) then it will come down to women, and people who are surprised by the result will be people who haven't sought out those marginalized female voices, instead choosing to remain in a male echo chamber.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?

Huevos. I agree with you.

eek · November 3

Morris_Dancer said:
FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.

I believe it’s had all night to dry - so the track will probably be greasy rather than wet.

The interesting issue is that there is supposedly more rain coming for the race - so do you set the car up for now and do well in qualifying or set it up for the race and hope to overtake

MarqueeMark · November 3

ydoethur said:
FPT, and actually more relevant here:
kle4 said:

Econew said:
That Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register is genuinely jaw dropping stuff. Wow.
I'm too pessimistic to believe it, but at least one org isn't herding!
If it is correct - and that's a massive 'if,' but let's consider this - you wonder if there might be a major surprise in Missouri.

That's one I'd thought of as a possible target early on - Obama nearly took it in 2008 - but assumed from the belief the race was very close would be out of reach for Harris.

It's also got an abortion ballot...and the Republican Senate candidate has been leading the drive to enforce Dobbs v Jackson.

There is the potential for some big surprises in states that have largely been immune from the deluge of presidential ad campaigns in the 7 swing states.

For example, I made £400 on Obama winning Indiana in 2008.

Foxy · November 3

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.

I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.

Sandpit · November 3

Morris_Dancer said:
FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.

Also note the revised event timings.

Qualifying is at 07:30 (10:30 GMT)
Race is at 12:30 (15:30 GMT)

The race time is half an hour earlier than originally scheduled, to give them a bigger weather window as they’re expecting more rain. Adjust your Sky TV boxes accordingly if you’ve set it to record.

TheScreamingEagles · November 3

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:
FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.
Also note the revised event timings.

Qualifying is at 07:30 (10:30 GMT)
Race is at 12:30 (15:30 GMT)

The race time is half an hour earlier than originally scheduled, to give them a bigger weather window as they’re expecting more rain. Adjust your Sky TV boxes accordingly if you’ve set it to record.

It's 90 mins earlier.

highwayparadise306 · November 3

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.

Pension will only be paid after 83.

JosiasJessop · November 3

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:
FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.
Also note the revised event timings.

Qualifying is at 07:30 (10:30 GMT)
Race is at 12:30 (15:30 GMT)

The race time is half an hour earlier than originally scheduled, to give them a bigger weather window as they’re expecting more rain. Adjust your Sky TV boxes accordingly if you’ve set it to record.

I expect the drivers to be fairly wary in qualifying. A track which might still be damp, and if it is not, has had all the rubber washed off, and only five hours to fix cars if they do stack it. Less, if it is near the end of qualifying.

Icarus · November 3

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.

Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.

IanB2 · November 3

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Scott_xP said:
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
I just spent over a week in the US and had a lot of conversations and heard a lot of people speaking about the election. Owing to the field I work in - finance - these were almost all male voices I heard. There was a lot of uncertainty but people generally leaned towards a Trump victory. I do think that if Harris wins (and that is still my expectation) then it will come down to women, and people who are surprised by the result will be people who haven't sought out those marginalized female voices, instead choosing to remain in a male echo chamber.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?

Well my recent US trip took two months and usually people were reluctant to talk about the election at all, presumably from fear of encountering a contrary opinion. Until they got off US soil, when most of the American I met had voted Harris but expected Trump to win.

The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…

Morris_Dancer · November 3

Mr. eek, got to set it for the race. A bad qualifying can be recovered from. Driving a dry setup in the wet, less so.

That said, I saw a tiny bit of Sky yesterday and James Vowles (Williams boss) asserted there's much less difference between a wet and dry setup now than in the past.

Jonathan · November 3

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.

Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.

ydoethur · November 3

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:
FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.
Also note the revised event timings.

Qualifying is at 07:30 (10:30 GMT)
Race is at 12:30 (15:30 GMT)

The race time is half an hour earlier than originally scheduled, to give them a bigger weather window as they’re expecting more rain. Adjust your Sky TV boxes accordingly if you’ve set it to record.

One might be permitted to wonder what idiot thought it a good idea to run an evening race in Brazil in November.

Have they simply not learned that while the TV schedules are suboptimal the weather waits for nobody?

highwayparadise306 · November 3

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Scott_xP said:
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
I just spent over a week in the US and had a lot of conversations and heard a lot of people speaking about the election. Owing to the field I work in - finance - these were almost all male voices I heard. There was a lot of uncertainty but people generally leaned towards a Trump victory. I do think that if Harris wins (and that is still my expectation) then it will come down to women, and people who are surprised by the result will be people who haven't sought out those marginalized female voices, instead choosing to remain in a male echo chamber.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?
Well my recent US trip took two months and usually people were reluctant to talk about the election at all, presumably from fear of encountering a contrary opinion. Until they got off US soil, when most of the American I met had voted Harris but expected Trump to win.

The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…

That theory may be proved to be correct. Abortion as we know. Women in unhappy relationships may do it to shut up their Trump supporting husband.

Foxy · November 3

highwayparadise306 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.

I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.

The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.

highwayparadise306 · November 3

highwayparadise306 said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Scott_xP said:
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
I just spent over a week in the US and had a lot of conversations and heard a lot of people speaking about the election. Owing to the field I work in - finance - these were almost all male voices I heard. There was a lot of uncertainty but people generally leaned towards a Trump victory. I do think that if Harris wins (and that is still my expectation) then it will come down to women, and people who are surprised by the result will be people who haven't sought out those marginalized female voices, instead choosing to remain in a male echo chamber.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?
Well my recent US trip took two months and usually people were reluctant to talk about the election at all, presumably from fear of encountering a contrary opinion. Until they got off US soil, when most of the American I met had voted Harris but expected Trump to win.

The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…
That theory may be proved to be correct. Abortion as we know. Women in unhappy relationships may do it to shut up their Trump supporting husband.

Or husband will vote for Harris for the same reason. However I doubt that will happen that much.

MarqueeMark · November 3

I have always assessed this to be a Harris victory simply because she wins women by a significantly larger margin than Trump wins men. It's as basic as that.

Even if they were about level, there's 3%-4% more women voting than men in recent previous elections. That could easily be 4-5% this time. Maybe even 6%. Enough to win the EC on its own.

But there are other factors in play. Shy Republicans not telling anyone how they will vote - just because. Trump supporters are not folk you want to admit your vote to. Just nod and "uh-huh" as they spout off. Then go vote for Harris. They won't all be Haley voters, but enough to make a difference.

Scott_xP · November 3

IanB2 said:
The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…

@stuartpstevens

This is a dramatization of the Selzer Iowa poll

https://x.com/stuartpstevens/status/1852890292182999234

Sandpit · November 3

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:
FPT:

F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.

Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.

Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.
Also note the revised event timings.

Qualifying is at 07:30 (10:30 GMT)
Race is at 12:30 (15:30 GMT)

The race time is half an hour earlier than originally scheduled, to give them a bigger weather window as they’re expecting more rain. Adjust your Sky TV boxes accordingly if you’ve set it to record.
It's 90 mins earlier.

Yes you’re right, was originally 14:00. So it’ll be finishing around the time it should have started, if they run to time on the revised schedule.

highwayparadise306 · November 3

Scott_xP said:

IanB2 said:
The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…
@stuartpstevens

This is a dramatization of the Selzer Iowa poll

https://x.com/stuartpstevens/status/1852890292182999234

Absolutely.

Theuniondivvie · November 3

‘She’s turned the white nationalist Nazis against us!’

https://x.com/ztpetrizzo/status/1852760852291559680?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

highwayparadise306 · November 3

MarqueeMark said:
I have always assessed this to be a Harris victory simply because she wins women by a significantly larger margin than Trump wins men. It's as basic as that.

Even if they were about level, there's 3%-4% more women voting than men in recent previous elections. That could easily be 4-5% this time. Maybe even 6%. Enough to win the EC on its own.

But there are other factors in play. Shy Republicans not telling anyone how they will vote - just because. Trump supporters are not folk you want to admit your vote to. Just nod and "uh-huh" as they spout off. Then go vote for Harris. They won't all be Haley voters, but enough to make a difference.

I believe you are right. There are a lot of religious good old girls in key states who will support Trump. Only a few of these need to vote for Harris and that will be her Trump card.

MarqueeMark · November 3

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....

I believe Selzer is worth taking seriously.

If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.

He's in trouble.

IanB2 · November 3

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.

Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.

ydoethur · November 3

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
I believe Selzer is worth taking seriously.

If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.

He's in trouble.

Given her traditional margin of error, he's about 2% ahead in Iowa at best.

That's a 3% swing against him, I think?

If there's a 3% swing against him across the Midwest he's screwed.

If, of course, this isn' t an outlier.

Foxy · November 3

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.

I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.

noneoftheabove · November 3

Foxy said:

highwayparadise306 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.
I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.

The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.

I suspect most people shift to retirement through a part time phase, so it seems sensible to do similar phasing with the pension. We could start a bit earlier at a much reduced rate but only get to the full pension early seventies.

Foxy · November 3

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.
Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.

While the grim reaper must account for some of the drop, much of it may well be people moving to Reform.

Dopermean · November 3

Foxy said:

highwayparadise306 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.
I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.

The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.

Rawnsley is wrong on one count, there is no way they will own up to their economic incompetence, their electoral success has been built on the myth of economic competence, if they admit that's false then they've only got 'crime' (lol) and bigotry.

highwayparadise306 · November 3

The USA election is extremely hard to call.

Morris_Dancer · November 3

F1: btw, suggestion Magnussen could go to Audi. This would mean both Haas drivers heading that way.

noneoftheabove · November 3

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.
Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.

Protecting the environment is the most fertile ground for a reformed Conservative party to redefine their relationship with younger voters, but Badenoch is a self confessed net zero sceptic.

edmundintokyo · November 3

Scott_xP said:

IanB2 said:
The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…
@stuartpstevens

This is a dramatization of the Selzer Iowa poll

https://x.com/stuartpstevens/status/1852890292182999234

How is Ann Selzer getting them to tell the truth?

IanB2 · November 3

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.
Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.
While the grim reaper must account for some of the drop, much of it may well be people moving to Reform.

As a new station between Toryville and the end of the line?

Jonathan · November 3

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.

I doubt she will instinctively reach out in the same way as Blair, Cameron or pre-79 Thatcher.

A lot depends on the voices around the top table. Do we know who will be her top shadows yet?

eek · November 3

Dopermean said:

Foxy said:

highwayparadise306 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.
I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.

The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.
Rawnsley is wrong on one count, there is no way they will own up to their economic incompetence, their electoral success has been built on the myth of economic competence, if they admit that's false then they've only got 'crime' (lol) and bigotry.

They Tories don’t have crime - look at last week it took 20 months for the clear cut Holly Newton case to be prosecuted - a murder that scared everyone in Hexham but where the murderer was instantly known and arrested

MarqueeMark · November 3

I reprted on here at the time of Harris' initial surge that the Republicans in Ohio were rather worried.

Probably a leap too far, but - if Iowa is right...

Most of the polling at Presidential level has been Trump winning by 6-8%. But the most recent Miamai University poll only had Trump by 3%.

Worth a small punt I'd say, if the late-breakers and shy Harris voters are a thing.

edmundintokyo · November 3

My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes.

I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the election. Does he want to be standing in front of the judge still actively committing them?

Casino_Royale · November 3

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Scott_xP said:
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807

@lyzl

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

@CharlotteAlter

Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.

Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.

https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
I just spent over a week in the US and had a lot of conversations and heard a lot of people speaking about the election. Owing to the field I work in - finance - these were almost all male voices I heard. There was a lot of uncertainty but people generally leaned towards a Trump victory. I do think that if Harris wins (and that is still my expectation) then it will come down to women, and people who are surprised by the result will be people who haven't sought out those marginalized female voices, instead choosing to remain in a male echo chamber.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?

There was a very good article by Gerard Baker in The Times yesterday (paywall) explaining why Trump is doing well and all the usual attacks on him don't work:

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/whoever-wins-us-election-2024-american-discord-kamala-harris-trump-phcfz5qfk

Theuniondivvie · November 3

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.

Much as I hesitate to compare the backwater of Scotpol to the world-class magnificence of Westminster, Kate Forbes might provide a helpful model. She appears to have turned down the volume on her social conservatism and swung behind her party and its central tenet. In government and in opposition two different things of course.

noneoftheabove · November 3

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
I believe Selzer is worth taking seriously.

If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.

He's in trouble.
Given her traditional margin of error, he's about 2% ahead in Iowa at best.

That's a 3% swing against him, I think?

If there's a 3% swing against him across the Midwest he's screwed.

If, of course, this isn' t an outlier.

Her traditional margin of error doesnt outweigh the maths of sampling. A 95% confidence interval gives 3.5 lead to Trump. And of course it could be one of the 5% of polls outside of that. Or there could be errors in methodology (there are always errors in methodology to some extent, but could be significant ones).

highwayparadise306 · November 3

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_xP said:

IanB2 said:
The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…
@stuartpstevens

This is a dramatization of the Selzer Iowa poll

https://x.com/stuartpstevens/status/1852890292182999234
How is Ann Selzer getting them to tell the truth?

De Niros lie detector from Meet The Parents.

noneoftheabove · November 3

edmundintokyo said:
My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes.

I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the election. Does he want to be standing in front of the judge still actively committing them?

Err, are you new to Trump and court cases?

Scott_xP · November 3

edmundintokyo said:
My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes.

I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the election. Does he want to be standing in front of the judge still actively committing them?

I assume the thinking is if he does enough crime to be President he won't have to stand in front of the judge...

highwayparadise306 · November 3

noneoftheabove said:

edmundintokyo said:
My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes.

I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the election. Does he want to be standing in front of the judge still actively committing them?
Err, are you new to Trump and court cases?

But I won. I won..... .

Casino_Royale · November 3

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.

I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.

Pro_Rata · November 3

On topic: Am liking Selzer. That can be 6 points off and still bad for Trump.

Let's call it tight still, but I'm hoping this is the scales off moment for this election, like Matt Singh (?) 2015 or Herdson 2017.

Theuniondivvie · November 3

Anyway, on matters more prosaic, anyone tried the new series of The Diplomat yet? It was surprisingly watchable last time out.

Stuartinromford · November 3

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.

That's always the tricky bit for social conservatives. In theory, "I respect your freedom to go full-on Gilead in your personal life" ought to work, but in practice it doesn't. As our friends across the Atlantic are demonstrating.

IanB2 · November 3

These thoughtful short essays on the US election by various left-leaning writers are worth a read:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/its-not-just-shameful-it-is-humiliating-four-celebrated-authors-on-their-hopes-and-fears-before-the-2024-us-election

The observation in one of them that people tend to like Trump less, the more they see of him, is another source of hope, given the amount of exposure he’s had during the campaign.

algarkirk · November 3

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.
Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.

In the long scheme of things people join political parties for particular reasons. No-one has to. Forget the glorious past of Tories as a middle class dating agency. It isn't coming back.

The reasons: support for fundamental principles; and/or access to the power/money/jobs greasy pole at some level, from Great Snoring Parish Council to Prime Minister to business person.

The Tories stood for: competence, moderation, wealth creation, a Burkean view of change, small platoons, sound defence, self reliance, a degree of equality of opportunity, no interest in equality of outcomes.

I can't give an account at this moment of what set of principles anyone would join for. If that is so, then it will be dominated by chancers.

Jonathan · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.

Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.

Casino_Royale · November 3

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....

There are posters on here whose judgement I trust when reading into them, or not.

Foxy · November 3

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.
Much as I hesitate to compare the backwater of Scotpol to the world-class magnificence of Westminster, Kate Forbes might provide a helpful model. She appears to have turned down the volume on her social conservatism and swung behind her party and its central tenet. In government and in opposition two different things of course.

I have no problem with social conservatism, and in many ways am myself. Key for me though is letting others live differently if they choose. It makes no sense to me to favour economic freedom and want to suppress social freedom.

Chris · November 3

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
I believe Selzer is worth taking seriously.

If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.

He's in trouble.

Taking the difference from the polling average at face value and projecting nationally - as just a bit of fun - it would imply Harris winning not only all the commonly recognised swing states, but also Florida, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska!

highwayparadise306 · November 3

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.

And how about a coalition. A deal with the Devil?

Foxy · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
There are posters on here whose judgement I trust when reading into them, or not.

Selzer is good, but I would always be a bit sceptical of a poll of just 808 people in one state.

No poll is better than its sample.

Pulpstar · November 3

We'll know if Selzer is anywhere near right because Indiana won't be midnight instacalled for Trump

Stuartinromford · November 3

Dopermean said:

Foxy said:

highwayparadise306 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.
I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.

The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.
Rawnsley is wrong on one count, there is no way they will own up to their economic incompetence, their electoral success has been built on the myth of economic competence, if they admit that's false then they've only got 'crime' (lol) and bigotry.

However, as long as they deny the incompetence in the runup to 2024, they look incompetent. Which points to needing a leadership team who can say "2019-24 was nothing to do with us." It will take a while for that team to emerge, and until it does Labour will have to really stuff things up to lose next time.

Casino_Royale · November 3

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.

I don't think so.

Casino_Royale · November 3

algarkirk said:

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.
Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.
In the long scheme of things people join political parties for particular reasons. No-one has to. Forget the glorious past of Tories as a middle class dating agency. It isn't coming back.

The reasons: support for fundamental principles; and/or access to the power/money/jobs greasy pole at some level, from Great Snoring Parish Council to Prime Minister to business person.

The Tories stood for: competence, moderation, wealth creation, a Burkean view of change, small platoons, sound defence, self reliance, a degree of equality of opportunity, no interest in equality of outcomes.

I can't give an account at this moment of what set of principles anyone would join for. If that is so, then it will be dominated by chancers.

How's that "Starmer is the real one-nation Tory" stuff going for you ?

Big_G_NorthWales · November 3

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.

Good morning

He won't take this one

Scott_xP · November 3

Theuniondivvie said:
Anyway, on matters more prosaic, anyone tried the new series of The Diplomat yet? It was surprisingly watchable last time out.

Yes. Not impressed.

Just as watchable, but, the story doesn't offer any closure. It veers off in a new direction solely for the purpose of setting up Season 3

I hate that

Jonathan · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.
I don't think so.

It’s clearly a risk to your strategy, the mitigation would be to (somehow) bury Farage before the policy shift.

ajb · November 3

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....

The polls have a phone problem: graph showing proportion of calls answered dropping from 35% before 2020 to nearly 0%

Sean_F · November 3

Ann Selzer has an outstanding reputation.

But, so does Emerson.

It would be funny if Trump stormed Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and even Pennsylvania, but suffered a shock defeat, due to unexpected losses in Iowa and Missouri.

Casino_Royale · November 3

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.
That's always the tricky bit for social conservatives. In theory, "I respect your freedom to go full-on Gilead in your personal life" ought to work, but in practice it doesn't. As our friends across the Atlantic are demonstrating.

I always find it interesting how vociferously left-wingers and progressive liberals argue against any pushback to their sociocultural consensus. "Stick to the economics, guys!"

Maybe they doth protest too much...

Sandpit · November 3

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....

The Selzer Iowa polls do have a good record, but there’s definitely a lot of herding going on, as well as a lot of partisan polling.

I guess we’ll know which were the accurate ones in about three days’ time, still think the actual result could be absolutely anything given how terrible the candidates are and the chance of apathy winning the day. It’s all up to whose supporters are more enthused on Tuesday, which will see the result break one way or the other.

Casino_Royale · November 3

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.
I don't think so.
It’s clearly a risk to your strategy, the mitigation would be to (somehow) bury Farage before the policy shift.

Actually, thinking this through, it probably is a risk.

One forgets that to any unqualified and universal benefit people end up thinking it's both an entitlement and that there's not enough of it.

So a reaction could be one of anger and desertion.

Maybe it'd be better to pledge ending it at a date in the future?

Chris · November 3

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
There are posters on here whose judgement I trust when reading into them, or not.
Selzer is good, but I would always be a bit sceptical of a poll of just 808 people in one state.

No poll is better than its sample.

It's not a huge sample, but assuming they were really even I reckon the probability of Harris ending up 3 or more points ahead through sampling error would still be under 5%.

Casino_Royale · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.
I don't think so.
It’s clearly a risk to your strategy, the mitigation would be to (somehow) bury Farage before the policy shift.
Actually, thinking this through, it probably is a risk.

One forgets that to any unqualified and universal benefit people end up thinking it's both an entitlement and that there's not enough of it.

So a reaction could be one of anger and desertion.

Maybe it'd be better to pledge ending it at a date in the future?

Or get demographic data showing your voting coalition has changed a bit first and then move to qualify it.

Tories really are boxed in by the oldies, even now in Opposition. They have to work out how to break the chain.

ToryJim · November 3

Chris said:

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
I believe Selzer is worth taking seriously.

If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.

He's in trouble.
Taking the difference from the polling average at face value and projecting nationally - as just a bit of fun - it would imply Harris winning not only all the commonly recognised swing states, but also Florida, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska!

Given Florida and Texas voted to the left of Iowa last time there are scenarios where Trump narrowly retains Iowa but ships Florida and Texas. On this poll I’d be taking a much closer look at Texas as it is trending Blue over time, and if Harris were to flip it this cycle Trump would have no path to 270.

Foxy · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.
That's always the tricky bit for social conservatives. In theory, "I respect your freedom to go full-on Gilead in your personal life" ought to work, but in practice it doesn't. As our friends across the Atlantic are demonstrating.
I always find it interesting how vociferously left-wingers and progressive liberals argue against any pushback to their sociocultural consensus. "Stick to the economics, guys!"

Maybe they doth protest too much...

No, it's just old fashioned Liberalism. It's why I don't vote Labour or Conservative, but was swayed to vote for Cameron in 2010.

Roger · November 3

There seems to be a fair amount of revisionism over the budget. The reverse of the norm. The hysteria passed from the right wing press infected the BBC and other news stations but as reality dawned and actual numbers started being looked at the picture has changed.

Maybe the Telegraph might now take a break and start functioning as a NEWSpaper again.

I notice another poll with Labour 7% ahead.

nico679 · November 3

CNN apparently have a big interview today on their Inside Politics show .

From someone who rarely gives an interview . Hard to think who it could be , would Kelly finally give an interview ?

Casino_Royale · November 3

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.

I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.
That's always the tricky bit for social conservatives. In theory, "I respect your freedom to go full-on Gilead in your personal life" ought to work, but in practice it doesn't. As our friends across the Atlantic are demonstrating.
I always find it interesting how vociferously left-wingers and progressive liberals argue against any pushback to their sociocultural consensus. "Stick to the economics, guys!"

Maybe they doth protest too much...
No, it's just old fashioned Liberalism. It's why I don't vote Labour or Conservative, but was swayed to vote for Cameron in 2010.

Identity politics goes against Liberalism.

That's why I oppose it.

Sandpit · November 3

Kamala Harris, meet Kamala Harris: Saturday Night Live appearance.

https://x.com/nbcsnl/status/1852921270159163900

algarkirk · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

algarkirk said:

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.
Badenoch urgently needs to work out how to attract some younger members, to replace those taking their membership to the graveyard.
In the long scheme of things people join political parties for particular reasons. No-one has to. Forget the glorious past of Tories as a middle class dating agency. It isn't coming back.

The reasons: support for fundamental principles; and/or access to the power/money/jobs greasy pole at some level, from Great Snoring Parish Council to Prime Minister to business person.

The Tories stood for: competence, moderation, wealth creation, a Burkean view of change, small platoons, sound defence, self reliance, a degree of equality of opportunity, no interest in equality of outcomes.

I can't give an account at this moment of what set of principles anyone would join for. If that is so, then it will be dominated by chancers.
How's that "Starmer is the real one-nation Tory" stuff going for you ?

Good question. However, in my view he was the nearest, not 'the real'. First impressions? Not bad, but awful presentation. Still loads better than the Tories. If there were an election tomorrow I would vote Labour.

Budget? I note the critics on the whole have picked individual holes, (as can I) but can't offer much by way of alternative to tax, borrow and spend.

Jonathan · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.
I don't think so.
It’s clearly a risk to your strategy, the mitigation would be to (somehow) bury Farage before the policy shift.
Actually, thinking this through, it probably is a risk.

One forgets that to any unqualified and universal benefit people end up thinking it's both an entitlement and that there's not enough of it.

So a reaction could be one of anger and desertion.

Maybe it'd be better to pledge ending it at a date in the future?

Personally, I think the Tories have to deal with their right flank somehow early on. Much as successful Labour leaders have had to figure out how to manage the left.

You cannot make important but difficult decisions whilst Farage is on hand to pop up with betrayal and outrage at a moment’s notice.

What is the dividing line with Farage, which keeps the voters with the Tories?
And gives Badenoch room for manoeuvre?

MarqueeMark · November 3

nico679 said:
CNN apparently have a big interview today on their Inside Politics show .

From someone who rarely gives an interview . Hard to think who it could be , would Kelly finally give an interview ?

Dubya. That would shake things up...

nico679 · November 3

Sandpit said:
Kamala Harris, meet Kamala Harris: Saturday Night Live appearance.

https://x.com/nbcsnl/status/1852921270159163900

It was great . Kamala has such a beautiful smile and is so warm and engaging .

DavidL · November 3

Icarus said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
Even worse for them membership numbers down:

"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."

And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.

Fewer members means less money.

Let's be honest. No realistic prospect of tweaking government policy in a favourable way to the donar means less money.

nico679 · November 3

MarqueeMark said:

nico679 said:
CNN apparently have a big interview today on their Inside Politics show .

From someone who rarely gives an interview . Hard to think who it could be , would Kelly finally give an interview ?
Dubya. That would shake things up...

I’d be shocked if he did endorse Harris . He’s had plenty of time and hasn’t said much .

Foxy · November 3

Casino_Royale said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.
I don't think so.
It’s clearly a risk to your strategy, the mitigation would be to (somehow) bury Farage before the policy shift.
Actually, thinking this through, it probably is a risk.

One forgets that to any unqualified and universal benefit people end up thinking it's both an entitlement and that there's not enough of it.

So a reaction could be one of anger and desertion.

Maybe it'd be better to pledge ending it at a date in the future?
Or get demographic data showing your voting coalition has changed a bit first and then move to qualify it.

Tories really are boxed in by the oldies, even now in Opposition. They have to work out how to break the chain.

No, you can't fatten a pig on market day.

Simply return uprating of benefits and benefits to the governments's discretion at the annual budget. It gives a lot more flexibility to deal with fluctuating economy and finances.

The Triple Lock only dates to 2010. Thatcher and Major, Blair and Brown all managed without it.

Morris_Dancer · November 3

Utterly OT but every time I read 'Gilead' I think of 'Gil-Galad'.

The high king of the Noldor would make a better leader than either presidential candidate, but I'm not sure he'd approve the term limits.

kjh · November 3

edmundintokyo said:
My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes.

I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the election. Does he want to be standing in front of the judge still actively committing them?

If he loses he is going to prison, so he will challenge and fight the result if a lose come hell and high water.

MarqueeMark · November 3

ToryJim said:

Chris said:

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Does anyone believe American polls.....
I believe Selzer is worth taking seriously.

If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.

He's in trouble.
Taking the difference from the polling average at face value and projecting nationally - as just a bit of fun - it would imply Harris winning not only all the commonly recognised swing states, but also Florida, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska!
Given Florida and Texas voted to the left of Iowa last time there are scenarios where Trump narrowly retains Iowa but ships Florida and Texas. On this poll I’d be taking a much closer look at Texas as it is trending Blue over time, and if Harris were to flip it this cycle Trump would have no path to 270.

Ditto Florida. Which looks more likely than Texas in 2024, given the numbers of Puerto Ricans and Haitians in Florida that Trump has pissed off. Plus women: abortion on the ballot is a big thing this time in Florida.

Florida I'd assess as maybe 51:49 Trump this year. Texas nearer 70:30 chance of going Trump this time.

BartholomewRoberts · November 3

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, the weekend Rawnsley:

The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.

In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.

Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.

One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.

Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.

Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.

Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.

Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.

I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
I think Badenoch should move to the double-lock in the next 12 months (and sweeten the pill by keeping all other pensioner benefits) and couple it with a narrative of a stronger, fairer and wealthier future for the UK - plus attack Labour on tax.

She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Farage will take the oldies and it will be game over for the conservatives.
I don't think so.
It’s clearly a risk to your strategy, the mitigation would be to (somehow) bury Farage before the policy shift.
Actually, thinking this through, it probably is a risk.

One forgets that to any unqualified and universal benefit people end up thinking it's both an entitlement and that there's not enough of it.

So a reaction could be one of anger and desertion.

Maybe it'd be better to pledge ending it at a date in the future?
Personally, I think the Tories have to deal with their right flank somehow early on. Much as successful Labour leaders have had to figure out how to manage the left.

You cannot make important but difficult decisions whilst Farage is on hand to pop up with betrayal and outrage at a moment’s notice.

What is the dividing line with Farage, which keeps the voters with the Tories?
And gives Badenoch room for manoeuvre?

Whereas I think the polar opposite.

Corbyn "shoring up Labour's left flank" helped Boris win a massive majority.

Starmer expelling Corbyn and ensuring that Corbyn and his acolytes and the Hamas independents etc were pissing from the outside helped Labour win a landslide majority.

You don't win elections by appealing to the extremists that piss off everyone else.

MarqueeMark · November 3

nico679 said:

MarqueeMark said:

nico679 said:
CNN apparently have a big interview today on their Inside Politics show .

From someone who rarely gives an interview . Hard to think who it could be , would Kelly finally give an interview ?
Dubya. That would shake things up...
I’d be shocked if he did endorse Harris . He’s had plenty of time and hasn’t said much .

I think he has said he wouldn't endorse.

But his views on Jan 6 could carry a lot of weight.

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