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  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The government will change its self-imposed debt rules in order to free up billions for infrastructure spending, the chancellor has told the BBC. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that there will be a technical change to the way debt is measured which will allow it to fund extra investment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg745ggn3no

    That reporting makes it sound like there was a load of money locked in a box in the treasury that just needed unlocking, rather than what in reality it means is loads of extra borrowing.

    This is so dishonest. Changing the rules does not change our balance sheet by 1p. Our debts will be large and growing our assets gradually being sold off to pay for the trade deficit. Pretending that the numbers are in some way better to allow yet more borrowing in the expectation, against all experience, that this will generate adequate returns to pay for that debt, doesn't change that reality at all.

    An honest Chancellor, one who wanted to be candid with the British people about their very unhappy state, would not be looking to deceive the naïve in this way. They would be looking to genuinely improve the situation. Instead, we are going to pretend things are fine for a few more years until the markets say enough.
    It is not necessarily dishonest. If you count assets, then one side-effect might be to boost infrastructure investment over current spending.
    But your expenditure still exceeds the tax revenues raised by the same amount. It is a sleight of hand. It is the same sort of thing that made politicians think that PFI was ok because the debts incurred were "off balance sheet" and didn't show up in the accounts. That was a disaster for us.

    I accept the need to invest more in infrastructure. But the reality is that if you want to do more of that you need to either do less of something else (current expenditure) or you need to increase taxes to pay for it. Borrowing more without one of those alternatives simply digs the hole even deeper.
    Disagree. Taxes should pay for current spending (albeit with some adjustment for economic cycle).
    Investment is supposed to pay for itself over time. If you rely on taxes to pay for investment then you'll always underinvest.
    The word "supposed" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. If it doesn't the tax revenues have to fund it.
    Sure if you make bad investments. But if you build a house in this country, people will buy it.
    We borrow at 4% for 10 years. Inflation is supposed to be 2%. Its not that hard to find public investments which will pay for themselves.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Did you find a new school for your son?
    Not yet, I'm afraid.

    He's in a temporary nursery.
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    WildernessPt2 said:

    Taz said:

    highwayparadise306 said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Harriet Harman accuses Starmer of not appreciating importance of reparations for Commonwealth"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/24/labour-budget-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-imf-uk-politics

    @Leon see the drip, drip, drip of support from labour figures for this. It’s going to happen.

    As for this quote. What a load of BS.

    Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Harman said Starmer did not appreciate why this was a live issue for so many country, and she said the PM should “lean in to a sense of cultural respect and equality”
    Harman. Not a pleasant person. Yuck.
    You just know that the argument will pivot to labelling any objectors to so called reparations ‘racists’ to quell any dissent, or at least reduce it.
    I think that stuff no longer has the resonance it once has. There's a fair few articulate non white people on the conservative benches who can and will put the boot in hard. Of course, all the grifting diversity industry will be all up to slurp on the free beer.
    Yet you’ve seen it in this thread where people have claimed that The debate is allowing people to legitimise slavery and even claim it was beneficial. Expect more of this.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    WildernessPt2 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    What a disastrous prison system the Tories, and New Labour, have left.

    40 years of running policy based on Daily Mail headlines.

    Prison Works. Crime rates have collapsed compared to what they were up until the mid 90s.
    Er... we had prisons before the mid 90s IIRC.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    WildernessPt2 said:

    Flatlander said:

    WildernessPt2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The 20 happiest cities in the world

    Aarhus, Denmark
    Zurich, Switzerland
    Berlin, Germany
    Gothenburg, Sweden
    Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Helsinki, Finland
    Bristol, United Kingdom
    Copenhagen, Denmark
    Geneva, Switzerland,
    Munich, Germany
    Stockholm, Sweden
    Rotterdam, Netherlands
    Oulu, Finland
    Vienna, Austria
    Edinburgh, United Kingdom
    Reykjavík, Iceland
    Aalborg, Denmark
    Minneapolis, Minnesota
    Basel, Switzerland
    Alesund, Norway"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/denmark/aarhus-happiest-city-in-the-world/

    Quite a few of those cities require the alcohol to be massively taxed to avoid the depression and suicide that comes from the long winter nights.
    I thought suicides in Scandinavia were highest in May and October and not during the winter?

    Something to do with temperature changes was suggested.
    I didnt know that, interesting. It could be like here though that it ends up being the recording of the suicides is in the warmer months rather than the actual day of death.
    They find the bodies when the snow melts?
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    The Gene Genie. Must have been great fun to play.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    "Shoplifting offences in England and Wales at highest level on record, ONS figures show"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/24/shoplifting-offences-in-england-and-wales-at-highest-level-on-record-ons-figures-show
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    Taz said:

    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Missing Truss/Kwarteng.
    Yields on 30 year gilts are now higher then when Truss cRaShEd ThE eCoNoMy 👍

    It’s like Truss never left 😀
    The curve is instructive:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield

    When Kwarteng 10-year bond yields were at 4.3% the Bank of England base rate was 2.25%. Now bond yields are at 4.3% (actually today they’re at 4.25%) and the base rate is 5.0%.

    Somewhat different, no?
  • WildernessPt2
    WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Who?
    Fairly useless pair of chancers who were still a few levels less shite than the current talent vacuum.
    I remember in the old days Hunt was seen as a bit of a joke, he managed to just keep his job because he had the ear of the PM. He slithered his way out of a sticky situation as Culture secretary, certainly had a good survival instinct.
    He left plenty of unexploded bombs that are currently going off in his successors lap, in true Brownonian fashion.
  • WildernessPt2
    WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Given the way Hunt run his last two Statement / Budgets removing £20bn of tax revenue via the 4% cut in NI - I doubt I would ever agree with that statement...
    And defined the Labour Government as one struggling. Great politics. Labour shouldnt have honoured the NI cuts.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Andy_JS said:

    "Shoplifting offences in England and Wales at highest level on record, ONS figures show"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/24/shoplifting-offences-in-england-and-wales-at-highest-level-on-record-ons-figures-show

    'In the king’s speech in July, the government moved to make attacking a shop worker a standalone criminal offence after pressure from the retail industry.

    Retailers have said they hope the new crime and policing bill will make it easier for police to investigate and prosecute criminals.'
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited October 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    . . . Meanwhile, up in the Great White North . . .

    CBC - Some [24 out of 153] Liberal MPs issue a deadline to Trudeau: make up your mind to stay or go by Oct. 28

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-caucus-meeting-trudeau-future-1.7359883

    CBC - How the internal push to force Trudeau to resign played out — and what might happen next

    Internal calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign as Liberal leader were aired out behind closed doors Wednesday as Liberal MPs met on Parliament Hill.

    What happened in the caucus meeting?

    Sources speaking to Radio-Canada said that 24 MPs signed an agreement to call on Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader.

    Two sources told CBC News that B.C. MP Patrick Weiler read out a separate document — which laid out an argument for Trudeau's resignation — during the meeting. Weiler pointed to the boost that Democrats gained after U.S. President Joe Biden backed out of the presidential race and suggested the Liberals could see a similar rebound.

    MPs were given two minutes each to address the room during the three-hour-long meeting. About 20 — none of them cabinet ministers — stood up to urge Trudeau to step aside before the next election, sources said. But a number of MPs also stood to voice support for the prime minister.

    The dissident MPs gave Trudeau until Oct. 28 to decide on his future, sources said. But no consequences attached to that deadline were mentioned in the document read to caucus Wednesday.

    The prime minister himself addressed the meeting and two MPs told CBC News that he became emotional when he talked about his children having to see "F--- Trudeau" signs in public. At the end of the meeting, Trudeau said he would reflect on what he heard but didn't indicate that he would resign. . . .

    Despite the pressure on Trudeau, the decision on whether to stay or go ultimately rests with him. He has said repeatedly he wants to lead the party into the next election; it remains to be seen if Wednesday's meeting will make him reconsider. . . .

    The Liberal caucus could have had a secret ballot option if MPs had agreed to adopt the provisions in the 2015 Reform Act — legislation meant to make party leaders more accountable to their caucus members.

    Under the act, if 20 per cent of caucus members sign a petition calling for a leadership review, a vote is triggered. If a majority of the MPs vote against the leader, they are forced to step down. This measure was used to oust former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole in 2022.

    But the Reform Act states that parties must vote on whether to adopt its measures after each general election and the Liberals have never done so. Even if the Liberals did have the Reform Act option at their disposal, the 24 MPs who signed the document wouldn't be enough to force the vote. . . .

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/what-happened-liberal-meeting-trudeau-leadership-1.7361018

    If Harris wins I expect Trudeau will step down, if she doesn't I expect he will stay
    What's the connection between the two?
    If Harris wins it would show changing a less than popular leader before an election works, if she loses Trudeau could and would argue it doesn't.

    Many of the Liberal MPs in the article were pushing the bounce Harris got initially after replacing Biden as Dem nominee as a reason to remove Trudeau
  • highwayparadise306
    highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    MarqueeMark said:

    highwayparadise306 said:

    Chris said:

    highwayparadise306 said:

    Chris said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    There are a fair few stories on X and elsewhere claiming: "Dutch Court rules Bill Gates can face trial over COVID-19 vaccine injuries"

    I haven't been able to find a reputable source for this. Is there one?

    Also, could anyone please tell me whether it's true that a double-decker bus was found on the Moon?
    It was. Musk was sat inside it putting together his future campaign to be president of the world.
    Thanks for the confirmation. Sounds plausible enough. But just to clarify - which world?
    Our world. Next we take over our solar system. Then The Milky Way. After that Andromeda. Then the Universe. And if there is a parallel universe he will have that as well.
    That's looking like a lot of reparations, some way down the line...
    That's true!
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    Benpointer said:

    WildernessPt2 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    What a disastrous prison system the Tories, and New Labour, have left.

    40 years of running policy based on Daily Mail headlines.

    Prison Works. Crime rates have collapsed compared to what they were up until the mid 90s.
    Er... we had prisons before the mid 90s IIRC.
    When crime rates fall to the same levels as those in countries with far lower rates of incarceration (where crime has fallen equally or more rapidly, from lower original levels) then the prison works brigade might have a smidgen of a point.

    There is a shining example of prison not working available to us all, via daily social media. It’s called the USA.
  • highwayparadise306
    highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    Life on Mars?
  • WildernessPt2
    WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    Andy_JS said:

    "Shoplifting offences in England and Wales at highest level on record, ONS figures show"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/24/shoplifting-offences-in-england-and-wales-at-highest-level-on-record-ons-figures-show

    "crimes you no longer go to prison for"
    Shop lifting has in essence become decriminalised.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    Four Seasons Total Landscaping
    @TotalSeasons

    If you go to the ER with a suspected brain injury, the first question they’ll ask you to assess if there’s a problem, is “Who’s the President?”

    @KamalaHQ

    Trump confuses who is currently president, forcing Fox host to correct him: “You mean President Biden. So, um...”

    https://x.com/TotalSeasons/status/1849499829782839348

  • WildernessPt2
    WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    Benpointer said:

    WildernessPt2 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    What a disastrous prison system the Tories, and New Labour, have left.

    40 years of running policy based on Daily Mail headlines.

    Prison Works. Crime rates have collapsed compared to what they were up until the mid 90s.
    Er... we had prisons before the mid 90s IIRC.
    Prison Works was a statement mad by Michael Howard, when both here and in the USA there was a wholesale change of attitude to growing criminality. Surprisingly we found, if you lock the prolific offenders up they don't commit crime. It was a revelation, and what followed was a fifteen year collapse in crime.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    There are a fair few stories on X and elsewhere claiming: "Dutch Court rules Bill Gates can face trial over COVID-19 vaccine injuries"

    I haven't been able to find a reputable source for this. Is there one?

    I'm thinking the answer is 'no.'
    Which is why I'm asking. Because Twix has found it vital to give me tweets from several people thinking this is really, really important.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Not inflation, prices.

    And prices will not fall irrespective of who is in government.

    But why is the price of food in the USA so high ?

    https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=United+States&country2=United+Kingdom
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    Taz said:

    WildernessPt2 said:

    Taz said:

    highwayparadise306 said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Harriet Harman accuses Starmer of not appreciating importance of reparations for Commonwealth"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/24/labour-budget-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-imf-uk-politics

    @Leon see the drip, drip, drip of support from labour figures for this. It’s going to happen.

    As for this quote. What a load of BS.

    Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Harman said Starmer did not appreciate why this was a live issue for so many country, and she said the PM should “lean in to a sense of cultural respect and equality”
    Harman. Not a pleasant person. Yuck.
    You just know that the argument will pivot to labelling any objectors to so called reparations ‘racists’ to quell any dissent, or at least reduce it.
    I think that stuff no longer has the resonance it once has. There's a fair few articulate non white people on the conservative benches who can and will put the boot in hard. Of course, all the grifting diversity industry will be all up to slurp on the free beer.
    Yet you’ve seen it in this thread where people have claimed that The debate is allowing people to legitimise slavery and even claim it was beneficial. Expect more of this.
    On reparations, are we going to deduct the cost of the war against slavery including compensation for those whose ancestors were killed or maimed?
  • BlancheLivermore
    BlancheLivermore Posts: 6,502
    I recently discovered that Waitrose sell (next to their fresh olives, artichokes, cured meats and tapas stuff) Cantabrian marinated anchovy fillets in "a parsley, lemon, orange and garlic dressing"

    I've been eating quite a lot of them plain for a few weeks. I've decided to cook with them tonight

    I'm going to have the anchovies with Kalamata olives, pecorino, spring onions, garlic, white wine vinegar, parsley and chives, mixed into conchiglie pasta (shell shaped, like conch?)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    "Fire up the Death Star!"
  • Stocky
    Stocky Posts: 10,337
    BlancheLivermore said:

    I recently discovered that Waitrose sell (next to their fresh olives, artichokes, cured meats and tapas stuff) Cantabrian marinated anchovy fillets in "a parsley, lemon, orange and garlic dressing"

    I've been eating quite a lot of them plain for a few weeks. I've decided to cook with them tonight

    I'm going to have the anchovies with Kalamata olives, pecorino, spring onions, garlic, white wine vinegar, parsley and chives, mixed into conchiglie pasta (shell shaped, like conch?)

    If you like anchovies, try Miceli Hot Smoked Anchovies. They are awesome.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    edited October 2024
    Absolutely shocking* stuff coming out of the Brianna Ghey inquest.
    Schools with shambolic record keeping. Total lack of mental health support services.

    https://hellorayo.co.uk/hits-radio/manchester/news/brianna-ghey-inquest-day-two/

    *Only shocking if you don't know what goes on.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Analysts at Citigroup warned that the Chancellor’s “near-term fiscal tightening in the autumn” would harm growth next year. The higher tax burden will hold back GDP growth by between 0.5 and 1 percentage points, Citi said. This is equivalent to around £20bn of lost expansion.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    MightyAlex said:

    Won't CPU clusters be poor for current AI stuff, or are they going extinct?

    Essentially nobody now builds new CPU only HPC systems. In the top 100 supercomputers roughly 90% of them have an accelerator of some sort, and even the remaining 10% or so often have CPU features that are basically accelerators, like some of the Chinese (Sunway and Matrix-2000) and Japanese (A64FX) systems. It's quite likely that the top 100 and top 500 will all have accelerators within a few years.

    In fact the cancelled system was planned to use GPUs, presumably from Nvidia or AMD as there are no other viable options, so it's bloody hard to see how such a system would not have been perfectly fine for running AI workloads.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Taz said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    The Gene Genie. Must have been great fun to play.
    He certainly made it look that way.

    Phil came and did a read-through of a script I wrote about that time. Was a real delight to see him chuckling at lines I'd written.

    (Then Hollywood went and made The Big Year. A film about birders. Which utterly bombed. The bastards. Mine still sits in the computer waiting on a rewrite as a more eccentric piece. Gentle buddy road movie, a whimsical Mortimer and Whitehouse: Gone Fishing, with birds though. One day maybe, it'll get some traction, perhaps once my animated movie comes out. And if I'm not still here on the Silk Road...)
  • highwayparadise306
    highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    TimS said:

    Benpointer said:

    WildernessPt2 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    What a disastrous prison system the Tories, and New Labour, have left.

    40 years of running policy based on Daily Mail headlines.

    Prison Works. Crime rates have collapsed compared to what they were up until the mid 90s.
    Er... we had prisons before the mid 90s IIRC.
    When crime rates fall to the same levels as those in countries with far lower rates of incarceration (where crime has fallen equally or more rapidly, from lower original levels) then the prison works brigade might have a smidgen of a point.

    There is a shining example of prison not working available to us all, via daily social media. It’s called the USA.
    That is for sure.
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    MarqueeMark said:

    Taz said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    The Gene Genie. Must have been great fun to play.
    He certainly made it look that way.

    Phil came and did a read-through of a script I wrote about that time. Was a real delight to see him chuckling at lines I'd written.

    (Then Hollywood went and made The Big Year. A film about birders. Which utterly bombed. The bastards. Mine still sits in the computer waiting on a rewrite as a more eccentric piece. Gentle buddy road movie, a whimsical Mortimer and Whitehouse: Gone Fishing, with birds though. One day maybe, it'll get some traction, perhaps once my animated movie comes out. And if I'm not still here on the Silk Road...)
    Had to Google the film. Had a good cast but it absolutely bombed.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    Drop your weapons, you are surrounded by armed bastards
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Scott_xP said:

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping
    @TotalSeasons

    If you go to the ER with a suspected brain injury, the first question they’ll ask you to assess if there’s a problem, is “Who’s the President?”

    @KamalaHQ

    Trump confuses who is currently president, forcing Fox host to correct him: “You mean President Biden. So, um...”

    https://x.com/TotalSeasons/status/1849499829782839348

    If Biden had done that - mainstream news for a week.

    Trump's decline should be the big story of the end of the campaign. If he wins, it'll be a few months after Inauguration that we get President Vance.
  • Stuartinromford
    Stuartinromford Posts: 19,148
    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Not me, anyway.

    Because there is a moderate amount of evidence that they were as fiscally dishonest as their predecessors but with with much less cause.

    Has any tax cut been as irresponsible as the NI reductions, for such little electoral reward?
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    glw said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Won't CPU clusters be poor for current AI stuff, or are they going extinct?

    Essentially nobody now builds new CPU only HPC systems. In the top 100 supercomputers roughly 90% of them have an accelerator of some sort, and even the remaining 10% or so often have CPU features that are basically accelerators, like some of the Chinese (Sunway and Matrix-2000) and Japanese (A64FX) systems. It's quite likely that the top 100 and top 500 will all have accelerators within a few years.

    In fact the cancelled system was planned to use GPUs, presumably from Nvidia or AMD as there are no other viable options, so it's bloody hard to see how such a system would not have been perfectly fine for running AI workloads.
    I got an email this morning announcing the availability of the AI Hat for the Raspberry Pi 5...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    another_richard said:

    Not inflation, prices.

    And prices will not fall irrespective of who is in government.

    But why is the price of food in the USA so high ?

    https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=United+States&country2=United+Kingdom

    Tariffs on imports, which will go up further under Trump and local sales taxes
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.

    How quickly we all forget.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    noneoftheabove said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The government will change its self-imposed debt rules in order to free up billions for infrastructure spending, the chancellor has told the BBC. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that there will be a technical change to the way debt is measured which will allow it to fund extra investment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg745ggn3no

    That reporting makes it sound like there was a load of money locked in a box in the treasury that just needed unlocking, rather than what in reality it means is loads of extra borrowing.

    This is so dishonest. Changing the rules does not change our balance sheet by 1p. Our debts will be large and growing our assets gradually being sold off to pay for the trade deficit. Pretending that the numbers are in some way better to allow yet more borrowing in the expectation, against all experience, that this will generate adequate returns to pay for that debt, doesn't change that reality at all.

    An honest Chancellor, one who wanted to be candid with the British people about their very unhappy state, would not be looking to deceive the naïve in this way. They would be looking to genuinely improve the situation. Instead, we are going to pretend things are fine for a few more years until the markets say enough.
    It is not necessarily dishonest. If you count assets, then one side-effect might be to boost infrastructure investment over current spending.
    But your expenditure still exceeds the tax revenues raised by the same amount. It is a sleight of hand. It is the same sort of thing that made politicians think that PFI was ok because the debts incurred were "off balance sheet" and didn't show up in the accounts. That was a disaster for us.

    I accept the need to invest more in infrastructure. But the reality is that if you want to do more of that you need to either do less of something else (current expenditure) or you need to increase taxes to pay for it. Borrowing more without one of those alternatives simply digs the hole even deeper.
    Disagree. Taxes should pay for current spending (albeit with some adjustment for economic cycle).
    Investment is supposed to pay for itself over time. If you rely on taxes to pay for investment then you'll always underinvest.
    Not just that, but also invest at the wrong times. Within the limits we can sensibly schedule investment it is better to do more when the private sector is struggling and less when it is booming. If it is closely following tax receipts you get the opposite.
    Excellent point
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Malmesbury said:

    eek said:

    highwayparadise306 said:

    I must say. Vienna is a stunning city. The buildings are magnificent. The food is fabulous and the people are friendly. Well worth it!

    Plus housing isn't a problem in Vienna because the city council has 220,000 flats it rents out at decent rates

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/jan/10/the-social-housing-secret-how-vienna-became-the-worlds-most-livable-city
    It’s more that the housing market in Vienna clears.

    That is, the number of properties vs the number of people who need a place means that a number of properties aren’t let.

    I know this will boggle the mind. Try this. friend had a flat in Vienna. Family’s old place etc. Nice building, modernised, but with old charm. Good quality, up to date. It was empty, because he couldn’t find a tenant. The problem wasn’t the price - it was a renters market. Everyone had a place.

    Stayed there a couple of times - he lent it to friends for holidays.

    In the end, it did get rented. After years of being empty.
    That's the market failing to clear.

    If the market cleared, low prices for apartments would suck people into Vienna until there was exactly the same number of people in town as there were apartments for them.
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    I miss DCI Hunt.

    "Gene Hunt. Your DCI. And it's 1973. Almost dinner time. I'm 'avin' 'oops."

    "She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot."

    "He's got fingers in more pies than a leper on a cookery course."
    Being a Hyde lad was one extra reason to love that show.

    Just looked and they've got rid of the 208 number for bus services. Heathens!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    TimS said:

    Benpointer said:

    WildernessPt2 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    What a disastrous prison system the Tories, and New Labour, have left.

    40 years of running policy based on Daily Mail headlines.

    Prison Works. Crime rates have collapsed compared to what they were up until the mid 90s.
    Er... we had prisons before the mid 90s IIRC.
    When crime rates fall to the same levels as those in countries with far lower rates of incarceration (where crime has fallen equally or more rapidly, from lower original levels) then the prison works brigade might have a smidgen of a point.

    There is a shining example of prison not working available to us all, via daily social media. It’s called the USA.
    We have higher reconviction rates in the UK than the USA as does Sweden, Latvia, New Zealand, the Netherlands, France, Denmark, Chile and Australia.

    Only Singapore, South Korea, Italy and Iceland and Norway have clearly lower reoffending rates than the US does
    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/recidivism-rates-by-country
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    WildernessPt2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Shoplifting offences in England and Wales at highest level on record, ONS figures show"

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/24/shoplifting-offences-in-england-and-wales-at-highest-level-on-record-ons-figures-show

    "crimes you no longer go to prison for"
    Shop lifting has in essence become decriminalised.
    For now but one of the few good things Starmer is doing is seeking to change that.

    'Sir Keir Starmer will force police officers to investigate shoplifting offences under £200 as part of a crackdown on crime in the King's Speech.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/14/keir-starmer-target-shoplifters-knife-crime-kings-speech/
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Who?
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,093
    TimS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.

    How quickly we all forget.
    Reeves could quite easily have made a case for taking the line to Crewe to tie up that loose end, especially if she's planning a splurge. She hasn't.

    That she surprises us all and does it is one of the better hopes for the budget - not that it's actually a great step forward, but it's one of the less actively harmful things she could decide to blow our money on.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.

    I agree. Also, it should have connected up with HS1 so that you could travel all the way through to France from places like Leeds and Manchester.
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    edited October 2024
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The government will change its self-imposed debt rules in order to free up billions for infrastructure spending, the chancellor has told the BBC. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that there will be a technical change to the way debt is measured which will allow it to fund extra investment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg745ggn3no

    That reporting makes it sound like there was a load of money locked in a box in the treasury that just needed unlocking, rather than what in reality it means is loads of extra borrowing.

    This is so dishonest. Changing the rules does not change our balance sheet by 1p. Our debts will be large and growing our assets gradually being sold off to pay for the trade deficit. Pretending that the numbers are in some way better to allow yet more borrowing in the expectation, against all experience, that this will generate adequate returns to pay for that debt, doesn't change that reality at all.

    An honest Chancellor, one who wanted to be candid with the British people about their very unhappy state, would not be looking to deceive the naïve in this way. They would be looking to genuinely improve the situation. Instead, we are going to pretend things are fine for a few more years until the markets say enough.
    It is not necessarily dishonest. If you count assets, then one side-effect might be to boost infrastructure investment over current spending.
    But your expenditure still exceeds the tax revenues raised by the same amount. It is a sleight of hand. It is the same sort of thing that made politicians think that PFI was ok because the debts incurred were "off balance sheet" and didn't show up in the accounts. That was a disaster for us.

    I accept the need to invest more in infrastructure. But the reality is that if you want to do more of that you need to either do less of something else (current expenditure) or you need to increase taxes to pay for it. Borrowing more without one of those alternatives simply digs the hole even deeper.
    Disagree. Taxes should pay for current spending (albeit with some adjustment for economic cycle).
    Investment is supposed to pay for itself over time. If you rely on taxes to pay for investment then you'll always underinvest.
    That does, though, depend on a pretty rigorous definition of investment.
    Yes that's the key point if you're going to make this big distinction whereby it's only the deficit against current spending that needs to be fretted about.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,093
    Lady Victoria appears to have left the building.

    https://order-order.com/2024/10/24/lady-vic-noticeable-by-her-absence-say-labour-insiders/
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.

    Labour are hoping to at least partially revive it I heard.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    bondegezou said:

    Cookie said:

    bondegezou said:


    Mayoral elections could go back to an ordinal system.

    Just as you can't elect a single person by FPTP - because there is no post - you can't elect a single person by PR. Proportional representation is a system by which the body being elected is in proportion to the number of votes for each party. When a mayor such as Andy Burnham is elected, 100% of the mayor is from one party. This is not proportional.

    It may or not be appropriate to elect mayors by an alternate vote system or by a plurality system, but it really grinds my gears when people are cavalier with the names for electoral systems.
    No-one in the tweet does refer to AV or any other system as PR. Your gears should be unground. The worst they do is "at" a group called "Labour4PR". Perhaps that group should change its name to "Labour4electoralreform", but I think you're being a bit harsh.
    Perhaps I am. It was indeed that Labour4PR that triggered me.

    But I acknowledge that organisations sometimes support things outside the named remit of the organisation.

    I will calm down a bit.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Scott_xP said:

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping
    @TotalSeasons

    If you go to the ER with a suspected brain injury, the first question they’ll ask you to assess if there’s a problem, is “Who’s the President?”

    @KamalaHQ

    Trump confuses who is currently president, forcing Fox host to correct him: “You mean President Biden. So, um...”

    https://x.com/TotalSeasons/status/1849499829782839348

    So SKS would fail that test then.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    I think we - on PB - are demonstrating quite a lot of cognitive dissonance. While there's plenty of good news for Trump out there, there's quite a lot for Harris too.

  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1849467713711710699

    We’re going to significantly reduce the number of immigrants coming to Canada for the next two years. This is temporary — to pause our population growth and let our economy catch up.

    We have to get the system working right for all Canadians.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone missing Sunak/Hunt yet?

    Who?
    A few people have tried that joke but it doesn't work because your PM keeps thinking he's still the PM.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.

    That was their worst decision, and one I vociferously argued against at the time.

    However, on everything else?

    God I'd love to have them back.
  • Omnium
    Omnium Posts: 11,764
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    I think we - on PB - are demonstrating quite a lot of cognitive dissonance. While there's plenty of good news for Trump out there, there's quite a lot for Harris too.

    Some prior betting pain too.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    What the mooch called a vanity stop.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    Houston, we've got a problem.
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The big mystery in this US election cycle is the independent vote . Even though you rarely find a true independent , the vast majority will lean to one party .

    This issue is more pertinent than ever because in recent years more states have auto-registered voters . This is often done when you get your driving license .

    You’re auto registered as an independent and then have to actively change that . How many will be bothered to do that ?

    When you had to actively register you were more likely to tick that box .

    So political commentators are having trouble now , as party registration has dipped reading the runes has become more difficult.



  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited October 2024
    The Houston stop is more to help the Senate candidate and help get out the vote . And if Beyoncé appears it will get the headlines . We should remember it’s not just about the Presidential race, there are also House races to think about .

    So far Texas is one of the states which have seen huge turnouts in early vote in Dem strongholds .
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Or they're over-sampling Democrats. Either way the headline of those polls is 2-1 Trump.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    @maxh

    Vanilla Mail for you.
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Bears out my view: Trump-sceptic Republicans & independents breaking for Harris + high turnout = comfortable Harris victory.
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    maaarsh said:

    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Or they're over-sampling Democrats. Either way the headline of those polls is 2-1 Trump.
    If they were over sampling Dems, Trump would be behind in all 3 .
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Or they're over-sampling Democrats. Either way the headline of those polls is 2-1 Trump.
    If they were over sampling Dems, Trump would be behind in all 3 .
    It's as broad as it's long - he's winning 2 and losing none - constructing a pipedream from a subsample over-ruled by the whole sample is just wishcasting.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sunak and Hunt destroyed HS2. That alone is enough to say they are totally incompetent.

    HS2 was more than capable of destroying itself.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    What the fuck is she doing there? Trump went to Colorado, Harris to Texas: why? Why? Why are these people acting so stupidly? Make the world make sense, somebody... :(:(:(
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    maaarsh said:

    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Or they're over-sampling Democrats. Either way the headline of those polls is 2-1 Trump.
    Is it?
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    edited October 2024
    maaarsh said:

    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Or they're over-sampling Democrats...
    Which is possible. Trump enthusiasts don't respond to pollsters: it's the reason why he overperformed his polls in 2020.
  • DoubleCarpet
    DoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    viewcode said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    What the fuck is she doing there? Trump went to Colorado, Harris to Texas: why? Why? Why are these people acting so stupidly? Make the world make sense, somebody... :(:(:(
    Senate race presumably?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Georgia early vote per NBC:

    2,169,000 ballots cast.

    Party registration of ballots cast:
    Rep 48
    Dem 46
    Oth 6

    If these voters have actually voted Harris 54, Trump 45 then that would surely be an absolutely brilliant result for Harris and imply (if trend continues) that she was on course for a landslide win.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    Scuttlebutt has it that the Bedford-Cambridge section of East-West rail is going to go ahead as well. That'll be *really* expensive.
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    MikeL said:

    Georgia early vote per NBC:

    2,169,000 ballots cast.

    Party registration of ballots cast:
    Rep 48
    Dem 46
    Oth 6

    If these voters have actually voted Harris 54, Trump 45 then that would surely be an absolutely brilliant result for Harris and imply (if trend continues) that she was on course for a landslide win.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

    Almost makes you wonder if there's a simpler explanation...
  • algarkirk
    algarkirk Posts: 14,975
    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    They are in danger of following the Tories (in their case on migration) and looking as if they have a policy to cut and to increase public expenditure at the same time.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    viewcode said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    What the fuck is she doing there? Trump went to Colorado, Harris to Texas: why? Why? Why are these people acting so stupidly? Make the world make sense, somebody... :(:(:(
    Law of diminishing returns applies to electioneering in swing states.

    Its also important to look confident and show you care about the country as a whole.
  • BlancheLivermore
    BlancheLivermore Posts: 6,502
    Does anyone think that the government's new Commission, or whatever it's called, to recover money from "fraudulent" PPE deals will actually work?

    I'm quite sure that it'll cost more than it will earn from its endeavours
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Does anyone think that the government's new Commission, or whatever it's called, to recover money from "fraudulent" PPE deals will actually work?

    I'm quite sure that it'll cost more than it will earn from its endeavours

    It is just a case of something needs to be done. This is something. I don’t doubt your final sentence will prove to be true.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    Most of it will end up being blown on Union pay demands IMO.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    Possible it will come back? Would be strange to announce big new investment money and then not use it on projects like that. Same for the Arundel bypass I hope.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    maaarsh said:

    MikeL said:

    Georgia early vote per NBC:

    2,169,000 ballots cast.

    Party registration of ballots cast:
    Rep 48
    Dem 46
    Oth 6

    If these voters have actually voted Harris 54, Trump 45 then that would surely be an absolutely brilliant result for Harris and imply (if trend continues) that she was on course for a landslide win.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

    Almost makes you wonder if there's a simpler explanation...
    Those early voting numbers are more consistent with the polling that gives Trump a small lead in Georgia.
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    maaarsh said:

    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    nico679 said:

    An interesting result from the latest batch of Marist polls .

    They asked early voters who they had voted for .

    Arizona

    Harris 55 Trump 44

    North Carolina

    Harris 55 Trump 43

    Georgia

    Harris 54 Trump 45

    Looking at party registration you’d only get those numbers if independents were breaking for Harris .

    Or they're over-sampling Democrats. Either way the headline of those polls is 2-1 Trump.
    If they were over sampling Dems, Trump would be behind in all 3 .
    It's as broad as it's long - he's winning 2 and losing none - constructing a pipedream from a subsample over-ruled by the whole sample is just wishcasting.
    I’m not wish casting . Just reporting the data.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
    So:

    When Trump makes a stop in California, it's a sign of his strength.
    And when Harris makes a stop in Texas, it's a sign of her weakness.

    Here's the thing: the candidates have no better idea than we do of what's happening.

    We don't know. It's entirely possible - as Nate Cohn at NYTimes suggests - that the past vote weighting means the Republican vote share is overstated. It's also possible that the reasons for Dems being easier to find in 2020 (i.e. they were more likely to be locked down at home than Republicans) simply don't apply this year.

    And finally, it's perfectly possible that "Shy Trump" simply is no longer a thing.

    We don't know.

    What we do know is that the data from Nevada in terms of early voting looks very good for the Republicans, while the data from Georgia looks similarly decent for the Democrats.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,170
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Does anyone think that the government's new Commission, or whatever it's called, to recover money from "fraudulent" PPE deals will actually work?

    I'm quite sure that it'll cost more than it will earn from its endeavours

    Perhaps it won't get the money back, but it will make the fraudsters, scammers and their friends in the last government keep their heads down.

    We don't usually expect to make a profit by punishing wrong doers. We do it to prevent further abuses.
  • noneoftheabove
    noneoftheabove Posts: 24,858
    viewcode said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    What the fuck is she doing there? Trump went to Colorado, Harris to Texas: why? Why? Why are these people acting so stupidly? Make the world make sense, somebody... :(:(:(
    President with Trifecta >>>>> President without Trifecta.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
    So:

    When Trump makes a stop in California, it's a sign of his strength.
    And when Harris makes a stop in Texas, it's a sign of her weakness.

    Here's the thing: the candidates have no better idea than we do of what's happening.

    We don't know. It's entirely possible - as Nate Cohn at NYTimes suggests - that the past vote weighting means the Republican vote share is overstated. It's also possible that the reasons for Dems being easier to find in 2020 (i.e. they were more likely to be locked down at home than Republicans) simply don't apply this year.

    And finally, it's perfectly possible that "Shy Trump" simply is no longer a thing.

    We don't know.

    What we do know is that the data from Nevada in terms of early voting looks very good for the Republicans, while the data from Georgia looks similarly decent for the Democrats.
    It makes sense to campaign in States that are safe for the opposition if there are House seats in play.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MikeL said:

    Georgia early vote per NBC:

    2,169,000 ballots cast.

    Party registration of ballots cast:
    Rep 48
    Dem 46
    Oth 6

    If these voters have actually voted Harris 54, Trump 45 then that would surely be an absolutely brilliant result for Harris and imply (if trend continues) that she was on course for a landslide win.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

    The Georgia Secretary of State does not release votes by party registration, so those numbers will be "implied" by survey responses.

    (The very low independent share should be the giveaway - 30% of Georgia voters are indpendent, and they don't vote at particularly different rates to those who are registered Democrats and Republicans.)
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
    So:

    When Trump makes a stop in California, it's a sign of his strength.
    And when Harris makes a stop in Texas, it's a sign of her weakness.

    Here's the thing: the candidates have no better idea than we do of what's happening.

    We don't know. It's entirely possible - as Nate Cohn at NYTimes suggests - that the past vote weighting means the Republican vote share is overstated. It's also possible that the reasons for Dems being easier to find in 2020 (i.e. they were more likely to be locked down at home than Republicans) simply don't apply this year.

    And finally, it's perfectly possible that "Shy Trump" simply is no longer a thing.

    We don't know.

    What we do know is that the data from Nevada in terms of early voting looks very good for the Republicans, while the data from Georgia looks similarly decent for the Democrats.
    Holding Georgia while losing Nevada would definitely be a result for Harris.

    It is, bluntly, hard to see her losing overall if she wins Georgia.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    JosiasJessop said:

    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    Scuttlebutt has it that the Bedford-Cambridge section of East-West rail is going to go ahead as well. That'll be *really* expensive.
    Excuse the chip, but if they're funding that, they had better be throwing an absolute tankerload of cash at infrastructure in the north.
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
    So:

    When Trump makes a stop in California, it's a sign of his strength.
    And when Harris makes a stop in Texas, it's a sign of her weakness.

    Here's the thing: the candidates have no better idea than we do of what's happening.

    We don't know. It's entirely possible - as Nate Cohn at NYTimes suggests - that the past vote weighting means the Republican vote share is overstated. It's also possible that the reasons for Dems being easier to find in 2020 (i.e. they were more likely to be locked down at home than Republicans) simply don't apply this year.

    And finally, it's perfectly possible that "Shy Trump" simply is no longer a thing.

    We don't know.

    What we do know is that the data from Nevada in terms of early voting looks very good for the Republicans, while the data from Georgia looks similarly decent for the Democrats.
    I've never said Trump stopping in stupid states is a sign of strength - I was just despairing of a poster I consider sensible on British politics posting bilge about American.

    Is there evidence of the Georgia early vote being good for 1 candidate or the other - aside from the general trend of R early vote being up more, I'm not sure a subsample of a poll which has them tied constitutes 'what we know' to the same extent as the declared party registrations elsewhere.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The 20 happiest cities in the world

    Aarhus, Denmark
    Zurich, Switzerland
    Berlin, Germany
    Gothenburg, Sweden
    Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Helsinki, Finland
    Bristol, United Kingdom
    Copenhagen, Denmark
    Geneva, Switzerland,
    Munich, Germany
    Stockholm, Sweden
    Rotterdam, Netherlands
    Oulu, Finland
    Vienna, Austria
    Edinburgh, United Kingdom
    Reykjavík, Iceland
    Aalborg, Denmark
    Minneapolis, Minnesota
    Basel, Switzerland
    Alesund, Norway"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/denmark/aarhus-happiest-city-in-the-world/

    Wait until half of Edinburgh finds out they were listed as "United Kingdom" rather than "Scotland". Frowns all round.
    You kidding? The average Edinburger will be just fine with that. More pissed off with no longer in the EU I would imagine.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
    So:

    When Trump makes a stop in California, it's a sign of his strength.
    And when Harris makes a stop in Texas, it's a sign of her weakness.

    Here's the thing: the candidates have no better idea than we do of what's happening.

    We don't know. It's entirely possible - as Nate Cohn at NYTimes suggests - that the past vote weighting means the Republican vote share is overstated. It's also possible that the reasons for Dems being easier to find in 2020 (i.e. they were more likely to be locked down at home than Republicans) simply don't apply this year.

    And finally, it's perfectly possible that "Shy Trump" simply is no longer a thing.

    We don't know.

    What we do know is that the data from Nevada in terms of early voting looks very good for the Republicans, while the data from Georgia looks similarly decent for the Democrats.
    It makes sense to campaign in States that are safe for the opposition if there are House seats in play.
    My point is that Donald Trump and his campaign don't actually have any better idea what's going on than anyone else.

    He might be projecting strength by going to competitive house districts... but my guess - fwiw - is that Trump will probably underperform other Republicans, so how much of a benefit will him turning up bring?
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    Because Treasury mind has taken over.
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Harris is held to a higher standard than Trump. The US media seem to be in this heads she loses , tails she loses .

    As an aside here’s a new poll , a bit trashy but the GOP biased polls needed some counterweight .

    Big Village

    Harris 52
    Trump 45

    Or being picky 51.6 v 45

    That’s an increase in Harris’s lead by 3.1 points from their last poll.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris making a campaign stop in Houston, Texas tomorrow.

    Confident move!

    I mean seriously. How stupid would she need to be for you to recognise it? No chance in Texas, and no relevance to the result.

    More likely her campaign aren't convinced her presense is a net positive.
    So:

    When Trump makes a stop in California, it's a sign of his strength.
    And when Harris makes a stop in Texas, it's a sign of her weakness.

    Here's the thing: the candidates have no better idea than we do of what's happening.

    We don't know. It's entirely possible - as Nate Cohn at NYTimes suggests - that the past vote weighting means the Republican vote share is overstated. It's also possible that the reasons for Dems being easier to find in 2020 (i.e. they were more likely to be locked down at home than Republicans) simply don't apply this year.

    And finally, it's perfectly possible that "Shy Trump" simply is no longer a thing.

    We don't know.

    What we do know is that the data from Nevada in terms of early voting looks very good for the Republicans, while the data from Georgia looks similarly decent for the Democrats.
    Holding Georgia while losing Nevada would definitely be a result for Harris.

    It is, bluntly, hard to see her losing overall if she wins Georgia.
    Trump would have to take two out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Sean_F said:

    maaarsh said:

    MikeL said:

    Georgia early vote per NBC:

    2,169,000 ballots cast.

    Party registration of ballots cast:
    Rep 48
    Dem 46
    Oth 6

    If these voters have actually voted Harris 54, Trump 45 then that would surely be an absolutely brilliant result for Harris and imply (if trend continues) that she was on course for a landslide win.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

    Almost makes you wonder if there's a simpler explanation...
    Those early voting numbers are more consistent with the polling that gives Trump a small lead in Georgia.
    Bingo. But if you compare them to confected early vote party ID numbers you can believe they actually imply Kamala is getting 100% of Dems, 100% of independants and a tasty chunk of GOP on top - it's a chance, but it's not a particularly credible one.
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1849467713711710699

    We’re going to significantly reduce the number of immigrants coming to Canada for the next two years. This is temporary — to pause our population growth and let our economy catch up.

    We have to get the system working right for all Canadians.

    Getting ready for the outflow of Americans after Trump/Harris (delete as appropriate) triumphs next month.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Cookie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MikeL said:

    If the Govt is now going to borrow lots more to fund investment, why has the Stonehenge tunnel been cancelled?

    That's only £1.7bn total - which appears a very small fraction of the supposed additional investment spending now planned.

    It was said earlier that the Govt will now invest an additional £50bn per year - that figure looks way too high to be correct.

    But surely Stonehenge could have been funded - it would have taken approx 4 years to build so only approx £400m per year for 4 years.

    Scuttlebutt has it that the Bedford-Cambridge section of East-West rail is going to go ahead as well. That'll be *really* expensive.
    Excuse the chip, but if they're funding that, they had better be throwing an absolute tankerload of cash at infrastructure in the north.
    Cambridge is north. ;)

    In its defence, the EWR scheme has been underway for some years, with one phase already open, the first trial train having run on a second the other day (Bicester to Bletchley), leaving a big gap to Cambridge.

    But yes, I agree. There needs to be much more public connectivity in general, and in the north. To be frank, an EWR-style scheme at 100 MPH might make more sense than an HS3/4 one, given the physical geometry of the settlements in the north for many journies.
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