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Don’t panic – politicalbetting.com

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Does that include the goons calling Harris a communist?
    Two of said goons being Musk and Trump.
    Well, Harris is quite proud about saying she believes in equality of outcome rather than equality of opportunity. Which arguably makes her more of a communist than it does Trump a fascist.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    viewcode said:

    There is a case for saying the don't knows will split to her. However, too early to tell.
    In one of the polls they asked when people made up their minds . Harris is ahead in the group who decided more recently .
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,217
    mwadams said:

    Those BBC Shakespeares are really good. I hadn't realized that they ploughed through (almost) all of them over many years.

    ETA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Television_Shakespeare
    I thought they did them all but, yes, they are good. You easily ignore the cheap studio sets they are filmed in.

    The quality of the acting is largely excellent and some people crop up you wouldn't expect. Gorden Kaye was in this one I watched.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    HYUFD said:

    If Reeves is stupid enough to reverse the Osborne IHT cut she hands large numbers of marginal seats in London and the South back to the Tories, especially if the LDs don't also promise to restore the spousal exemption as the Tories would.

    Though that source is just 'experts' saying what she could look at, not that she has. One thing they also considered is capping the exemption that can be used at £10 m which would be politically much less damaging for Labour and only effect the super rich
    The Telegraph will be full of blank pages once this budget is finally delivered as they seem to have nothing else to write about.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,419

    The problem with teaching history is that there's always more history to teach. For one thing there's always more history being created - when my grandad was taught history, "history" ended with the Boer Wars - but for another, history is fractal, and there's always more of it the closer you look.

    Just the other day Casino asked about the history of France during the interwar period, which feels like a fairly important part of the WWI/WWII story, but one that I've never made it to (besides some vague knowledge about the Popular Front, occupation of the Ruhr, and other bits and bobs) given all the other history.

    More than any other subject the mismatch between a desire to define a syllabus of the subject, and the feasibility of doing so, is immense. There's simply too much history, and so much of it that is important.
    Yes; for Younger Grandson history went on until the 1960's. And I once wrote a short 'history' document for Elder Grandsons class of 8 year olds on what it was like to live on Canvey Island during WWII.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,572
    edited October 2024

    The problem with teaching history is that there's always more history to teach. For one thing there's always more history being created - when my grandad was taught history, "history" ended with the Boer Wars - but for another, history is fractal, and there's always more of it the closer you look.

    Just the other day Casino asked about the history of France during the interwar period, which feels like a fairly important part of the WWI/WWII story, but one that I've never made it to (besides some vague knowledge about the Popular Front, occupation of the Ruhr, and other bits and bobs) given all the other history.

    More than any other subject the mismatch between a desire to define a syllabus of the subject, and the feasibility of doing so, is immense. There's simply too much history, and so much of it that is important.
    I well recall my first history lesson in grammar school 62 years ago. We spent 45 minutes copying a drawing of a naked Neanderthal man sitting on a rock, using a second rock to pulverise a third. I think the hidden agenda was to make us proud to be British.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Leon said:

    The Labour government is going to fold. They really are. Everyone can see how they caved on Chagos

    From the guardian

    “Starmer under pressure to accept case for slavery reparations, as Commonwealth minister claims UK will eventually agree
    Keir Starmer has been told by Commonwealth leaders he must come to the table to discuss reparations for the “ill effects” of slavery, PA Media reports.

    Commonwealth nations are looking at an agreement that could begin conversations on the issue through a communique, according to the BBC.

    Frederick Mitchell, foreign minister for the Bahamas, told the Today programme that Starmer should take part in a discussion which “needs to be had about the history” around reparations. Mitchell said:

    There appears to be even a reluctance to have the conversation start.
    Many of the institutions in the UK have already conceded the point of apology, the British government isn’t quite there.
    But at this time, the discussion needs to be had about the history of this and the ill effects of what happened after slavery was abolished, which continue to affect our societies today.
    Mitchell said that he expected discussions on the wording of the communique to continue overnight and that leaders might have to get involved in settling the details. He indicated there was some opposition to having a declaration on reparatory justice in the communique – even though countries like his, he said, thought this wording was “innocuous” and that there really should be “an apology and a commitment to reparations”.

    He also predicted that eventually Starmer would shift on this. “It’s only a matter of time before his position changes, I am confident of it,” Mitchell said”

    I bet he’s confident. Labour will buckle but they will try and disguise it as something else. Spineless fucking cretins

    Conceding some wording will look like the easiest move for a PM, but he will need to be careful.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Leon said:

    I believe he is, potentially that stupid and that morally vain, and that weak, and of course he is surrounded by people that actively agree with this. Black activists. David Lammy. Half his MPs

    Yes it would be the instant end of the Labour Party as a serious force forever
    Agreed. Because he won such a massive majority with such a narrow voting coalition, he has become quite complacent about what it will take to stay in power. The rumoured 8p petrol tax increase for example. The sort of thing that tips countless Labour seats into the Reform column (or potentially to Tory, who can say).

    Reparations for slavery at any time is political suicide, yet alone when budgets are so stretched.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,419

    I well recall my first history lesson in grammar school 62 years ago. We spent 45 minutes copying a drawing of a naked Neanderthal man sitting on a rock, using a second rock to pulverise a third. I think the hidden agenda was to make us proud to be British.
    Not very different to my experience around 1950!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877

    I well recall my first history lesson in grammar school 62 years ago. We spent 45 minutes copying a drawing of a naked Neanderthal man sitting on a rock, using a second rock to pulverise a third. I think the hidden agenda was to make us proud to be British.
    Was that one of Leon's forebears?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    viewcode said:

    I've just read David Starkey's "Magna Carta". It's interesting, especially the interplay between all the dramatis personae. I didn't realise there were more than one version and that the final version wasn't certified until after John's death.
    You get some saying it was not important at all because of it being annulled or whatever, but the perception of it overtime and enduring legend about what it was, even beyond what those forcing its signing may have intended, I would think argues for its vital importance regardless.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,419
    kle4 said:

    Conceding some wording will look like the easiest move for a PM, but he will need to be careful.
    He's a lawyer; he'll know about wording.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,971

    The problem with teaching history is that there's always more history to teach. For one thing there's always more history being created - when my grandad was taught history, "history" ended with the Boer Wars - but for another, history is fractal, and there's always more of it the closer you look.

    Just the other day Casino asked about the history of France during the interwar period, which feels like a fairly important part of the WWI/WWII story, but one that I've never made it to (besides some vague knowledge about the Popular Front, occupation of the Ruhr, and other bits and bobs) given all the other history.

    More than any other subject the mismatch between a desire to define a syllabus of the subject, and the feasibility of doing so, is immense. There's simply too much history, and so much of it that is important.
    We should do it by reigns since 1603. There's only been 21-ish, depending on how you count the Cromwells and William and Mary. Plus we should separate it into two areas: British History and World History. We can put the self-abnegation stuff into the latter and all the fun bits in the former.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,352
    moonshine said:

    Agreed. Because he won such a massive majority with such a narrow voting coalition, he has become quite complacent about what it will take to stay in power. The rumoured 8p petrol tax increase for example. The sort of thing that tips countless Labour seats into the Reform column (or potentially to Tory, who can say).

    Reparations for slavery at any time is political suicide, yet alone when budgets are so stretched.
    Electionmaps.uk Nowcast already predicts a chunk of Sunderland as Ref/Lab marginals. Do Labour really want to be fighting a rearguard action in Sunderland of all places?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,352

    He's a lawyer; he'll know about wording.
    The wording might stand up in the courts of law but they're very different to the courts of public opinion.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,722
    Foss said:

    Electionmaps.uk Nowcast already predicts a chunk of Sunderland as Ref/Lab marginals. Do Labour really want to be fighting a rearguard action in Sunderland of all places?
    Sadly, while I think giving away reparations to be indefensible, I think they'll do it anyway, and I don't thinnk they'll suffer electorally for it. They've got a huge majority and four years until the election, by which time people will have forgotten about it. And half their voters I would expect support it or wouldn't particularly care anyway.
  • Foss said:

    The wording might stand up in the courts of law but they're very different to the courts of public opinion.
    The public love a lawyer.

    See this graph.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/20/the-scale-of-the-tory-challenge-and-why-being-a-lawyer-helps-jenrick/
  • Cookie said:

    Sadly, while I think giving away reparations to be indefensible, I think they'll do it anyway, and I don't thinnk they'll suffer electorally for it. They've got a huge majority and four years until the election, by which time people will have forgotten about it. And half their voters I would expect support it or wouldn't particularly care anyway.
    We won’t pay reparations.

    The reality is we cannot afford it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    Cookie said:

    In Burma?
    I find hearing about the real people who fought in WW2 fascinating.
    The father of one of my best friends flew Tempests in the Far East. He escorted Vera Lynn's plane and also took part in the Berlin Airlift after the war. He crashed several times on take off/landing in the war, but with only minor injuries and said he felt sick with fear every time he took off. Lots of stories. He also met Douglas Bader who he hated as being very arrogant.
  • I find it hard to believe that a Labour government that is content to ignore the large majority of its vote and membership on the UK's relationship with the EU is going to buckle to a much smaller demographic on reparations.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,722

    We won’t pay reparations.

    The reality is we cannot afford it.
    There are lots of things we can't afford but spaff money on anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    Nigelb said:

    In a microcosm, that's the case against reparations.

    Don't disagree with you about the history - even if it does wind up Casino all over again.
    That very quickly turns into politicised history, both by the selection of the material and the emphasis placed on that material. And, if you teach shame about the history of Britain then you will create a generation who have shame in Britain.

    That doesn't mean you ignore it, or gloss over it, but it does mean that you put any crimes in the context of the time, what others were doing, what the world was like, and also what positives resulted as well. Because these exist throughout history and have shaped Britain and the world accordingly.

    History should be about history, not a vehicle to advance contemporary political agendas.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    The Telegraph will be full of blank pages once this budget is finally delivered as they seem to have nothing else to write about.
    What are you talking about? They can just go back to one of their many predictions and re-print it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    Cookie said:

    Sadly, while I think giving away reparations to be indefensible, I think they'll do it anyway, and I don't thinnk they'll suffer electorally for it. They've got a huge majority and four years until the election, by which time people will have forgotten about it. And half their voters I would expect support it or wouldn't particularly care anyway.
    Of course they would suffer electorally for it, the Tories would have the billboards prepared to remind voters Labour put funding reparations ahead of funding the NHS. It would hand the redwall seats mostly back to the Tories and some to Reform on a plate
  • The Telegraph will be full of blank pages once this budget is finally delivered as they seem to have nothing else to write about.
    Well, if they do that they are indeed MAD and the government will collapse within a year. Widows committing suicide because of Capital Transfer Tax after 1974 was a real thing and hence the volte face within two years.

    I cannot believe they could be so stupid. But having said that when it comes to stupid Keir Starmer hasn't failed yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    edited October 2024

    I think there are lots of different ways this could go. An election board in a state might refuse to verify the results to prevent Harris from getting the votes, and that could be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court.
    Regardless Harris would still be able to call that state for her under the constitution for the VP declares the results of the presidential election not the SC, nothing the SC can do about that.

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,217

    The Telegraph will be full of blank pages once this budget is finally delivered as they seem to have nothing else to write about.
    You reckon ?

    They seem to have endless articles about reparations at the moment as well.

    They will find something.
  • That very quickly turns into politicised history, both by the selection of the material and the emphasis placed on that material. And, if you teach shame about the history of Britain then you will create a generation who have shame in Britain.

    That doesn't mean you ignore it, or gloss over it, but it does mean that you put any crimes in the context of the time, what others were doing, what the world was like, and also what positives resulted as well. Because these exist throughout history and have shaped Britain and the world accordingly.

    History should be about history, not a vehicle to advance contemporary political agendas.

    How do you build any coherent set of political beliefs and the agendas that spring from them without reference to history?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Not very different to my experience around 1950!
    I wonder if they were still talking about Piltdown Man then? Very British, complete with cricket bat of, ISTR, mammoth ivory. Been said to be targeted at a certain expert who held sway at the time. Britain, or rather England given the bat, cradle of the human race, and all that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    nico679 said:

    It got some media attention but it wasn’t wall to wall coverage . Very few people are undecided about Trumps character , this just reinforces the view amongst those who hate him .

    It’s really about motivating your base . The story really only got attention in the last two days , so we’ll see if there’s any effect on the next few polls .
    Yes. This snippet from The Atlantic hits the spot for me.

    "For millions of the faithful, Trump’s daily attempts to breach new frontiers of hideousness are not offensive but reassuring. They want Trump to be awful—precisely because the people they view as their political foes will be so appalled if he wins. If Trump’s campaign was focused on handing out tax breaks and lowering gas prices, he’d be losing, because for his base, none of that yawn-inducing policy stuff is transgressive enough to be exciting. (Just ask Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who each in their own way tried to run as a Trump alternative.) Some Trump voters may believe his lies. But plenty more want Trump to be terrifying and stomach-turning so that reelecting him will be a fully realized act of social revenge. Harris cannot propose any policy, offer any benefit, or adopt any position that competes with that feeling. Exactly why so many Americans feel this way is a complicated story but a toxic combination of social resentment, entitlement, and racial insecurity drives many Trump voters to believe not only that other Americans are looking down on them but that they are doing so while living an undeservedly good life. These others must be punished or at least brought down to a common level of misery to balance the scales, and Trump is the guy to do it."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,867
    a
    RobD said:

    What are you talking about? They can just go back to one of their many predictions and re-print it.
    It's moderately amusing to watch Labour supporters find out about what being in government means.

    Speculation on budget measures in the run up to a budget? - Ooooh! Missies!

    Wait till we get to the deconstruction of the budget that starts 0.00001 seconds after the Chancellor stops speaking.....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    How do you build any coherent set of political beliefs and the agendas that spring from them without reference to history?

    Also: the Conservatives love history as a vehicle for their agendas. Statue-saving and all that.

    Vide the demand to make Our Island Story a key school book once again, as per Mr Gove.

    Mind,

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2014/feb/07/our-island-story-conservative-david-cameron
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,217
    moonshine said:

    Agreed. Because he won such a massive majority with such a narrow voting coalition, he has become quite complacent about what it will take to stay in power. The rumoured 8p petrol tax increase for example. The sort of thing that tips countless Labour seats into the Reform column (or potentially to Tory, who can say).

    Reparations for slavery at any time is political suicide, yet alone when budgets are so stretched.
    Do we know that ?

    It could be a hugely popular policy for all we know.

    Certainly some Labour MP's and labour activists support it as do a fair few charities and NGO's (the ones who will benefit from "helping" distribute it).

    The thing we need to consider is how do we raise it if we do and also bear in mind the aggrieved nations have very kindly said we can pay in stages over time.




  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    Sean_F said:

    Was he at Cassino? I was there a few days ago, and saw hundreds of graves to Indian soldiers.
    A much better way of teaching our history is to incorporate positive stories like that.
  • We won’t pay reparations.

    The reality is we cannot afford it.
    And "it" is an arbitrary moveable amount. If we paid "it" a new demand for more would follow swiftly.

    Foreign aid seems the right mechanism and is broadly at the right kind of level. Continue with that.
  • HYUFD said:

    Regardless Harris would still be able to call that state for her under the constitution for the VP declares the results of the presidential election not the SC, nothing the SC can do about that.

    The Supreme Court interprets the constitution and decides what cases it wants to hear. Only legislation can override a decision taken by the Supreme Court.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Taz said:

    You reckon ?

    They seem to have endless articles about reparations at the moment as well.

    They will find something.
    They've certainly flown plenty of kites this budget, we'll have to see how many were on target.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,540

    Well, if they do that they are indeed MAD and the government will collapse within a year. Widows committing suicide because of Capital Transfer Tax after 1974 was a real thing and hence the volte face within two years.

    I cannot believe they could be so stupid. But having said that when it comes to stupid Keir Starmer hasn't failed yet.
    One option is of course to abolish inheritance tax, and tax the recipients.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,229
    If you want to learn about modern slavery, may I recommend Francis Bok's "Escape From Slavery". https://www.amazon.com/Escape-Slavery-Captivity-Journey-Freedom/dp/0312306245

    It was one of the things that persuaded the GWB administration to support independence for South Sudan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    edited October 2024
    Cookie said:

    I think there are drawbacks to raising a generation of kids to think that their country is uniquely wicked - which is why most culture tend not to.
    Hardly anyone is arguing that.
    But our country does have a unique role over a particular couple of centuries or so of history, and we should be teaching the bad along with the good.

    One period of history (which might or might not be taught now ?) which didn't even really figure as history when I was a kid, is the postwar decade, worldwide.
    That essentially set what became our modern world.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,555
    edited October 2024

    One option is of course to abolish inheritance tax, and tax the recipients.
    Makes sense - it's a capital gain after all...

    The only advantage of inheritance tax is that by being a different tax you can tax profits and inheritance differently - hard to do that if both are subject to the same tax regime..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    viewcode said:

    We should do it by reigns since 1603. There's only been 21-ish, depending on how you count the Cromwells and William and Mary. Plus we should separate it into two areas: British History and World History. We can put the self-abnegation stuff into the latter and all the fun bits in the former.
    No history before 1603?

    No Reformation? No Romans, Vikings or Normans? None of the early European voyages of discovery? No Black Death, Magna Carta or Crusades? No Spanish Armada, Hundred Years War or War of the Roses?

    Imagine teaching English history and not teaching Elizabeth I's speech at Tilbury. You might as well teach American history and omit the Gettysburg Address.

    But, yeah. I suppose it does get a bit easier if you leave most of it out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,867

    The Supreme Court interprets the constitution and decides what cases it wants to hear. Only legislation can override a decision taken by the Supreme Court.
    Ironically, Harris declaring the results the way she feels is "better" would be what Trump demanded Pence do.

    The day that Dan Quayle came a Second Founding Father.
  • Proof that Donald Trump is a terrible human being who doesn’t deserve to be back in the Oval Office.

    Trump: "You have no idea what I did in the White House. I stopped wars with France”

    This dude's brain is cooked


    https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1849246971157987767?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    THE ORANGE TWAT STOPPED A WAR AGAINST FRANCE!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    Cookie said:

    Sadly, while I think giving away reparations to be indefensible, I think they'll do it anyway, and I don't thinnk they'll suffer electorally for it. They've got a huge majority and four years until the election, by which time people will have forgotten about it. And half their voters I would expect support it or wouldn't particularly care anyway.
    They will care, because the amount will become public and it will be priced and billed per household by opposition parties. Just look at how much the Foreign Aid budget is criticised, and that is far from the same thing.

    It would destroy Labour. Still think they might do it because Starmer is naturally sympathetic and has a tin-ear for public opinion, but it'd be catastrophic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,867

    And "it" is an arbitrary moveable amount. If we paid "it" a new demand for more would follow swiftly.

    Foreign aid seems the right mechanism and is broadly at the right kind of level. Continue with that.
    On foreign aid. Certain countries demand that British logos etc be taken off aid, on the basis that it is "offensive".

    I think we should ignore those requests. Perhaps double the size of the Union Jacks on it. Just to observe the results, in the spirit of scientific enquiry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003

    Was that one of Leon's forebears?
    Proto Spectator writer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003

    Proof that Donald Trump is a terrible human being who doesn’t deserve to be back in the Oval Office.

    Trump: "You have no idea what I did in the White House. I stopped wars with France”

    This dude's brain is cooked


    https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1849246971157987767?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    THE ORANGE TWAT STOPPED A WAR AGAINST FRANCE!!!

    I can see you'd resent him for that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    HYUFD said:

    Regardless Harris would still be able to call that state for her under the constitution for the VP declares the results of the presidential election not the SC, nothing the SC can do about that.
    At least this time Trump will not be in situ at the WH as he tries to overturn the election result. He'll be trying to break in rather than refusing to leave. That will make it a little harder for him.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,722
    Nigelb said:

    Hardly anyone is arguing that.
    But our country does have a unique role over a particular couple of centuries or so of history, and we should be teaching the bad along with the good.

    One period of history (which might or might not be taught now ?) which didn't even really figure as history when I was a kid, is the postwar decade, worldwide.
    That essentially set what became our modern world.
    For the 1750-1950 period, it doesn't seem apparent to me from looking at what my daughters are taught that we teach any of the good along with the bad.

    Postwar is taught nowadays, yes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    They will care, because the amount will become public and it will be priced and billed per household by opposition parties. Just look at how much the Foreign Aid budget is criticised, and that is far from the same thing.

    It would destroy Labour. Still think they might do it because Starmer is naturally sympathetic and has a tin-ear for public opinion, but it'd be catastrophic.
    Yeah, it will literally be billed as tax rises to pay for this bullshit by opposition parties, Reform and the Tories would rinse them. I'm not sure if he'll do it but the consequences of doing so would finish Labour for a generation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    We won’t pay reparations.

    The reality is we cannot afford it.
    Britain still spends a fair wodge on the International Aid budget. It's not hard to envisage a rebrand of that from Aid to Reparations, with no extra money being spent.

    The difference might be that it would be ringfenced for former British colonies, and the governments of those countries would have more say in how it was spent. Whether that would make the spending more effective I'm not sure. The best argument against Western aid spending is that it's been very ineffective, so it might be worth a try.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    Yes; for Younger Grandson history went on until the 1960's. And I once wrote a short 'history' document for Elder Grandsons class of 8 year olds on what it was like to live on Canvey Island during WWII.
    My son is fascinated by history, and much of that is down to two BBC programs: Go Jetters (yes, really...) and Horrible Histories.

    Now, HH annoys me as much as it does the next red-blooded Englishman. Some of the sketches go more for humour than accuracy, are sometimes politically biased, and skim the surface of subjects at best. But many history books by well-established authors are biased and skim the surface of important topics.

    But HH introduces a vast amount of periods, events and characters that kids would otherwise not know about, and that, IMO, is brilliant.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101

    We won’t pay reparations.

    The reality is we cannot afford it.
    It's not just economic, it's political.

    Outside of bien pensant metropolitan circles support for this is astonishingly low, and for good reason, and it'd be like throwing petrol on the flames of culture wars.

    I can scarcely think of anything worse the government could do.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,722

    And "it" is an arbitrary moveable amount. If we paid "it" a new demand for more would follow swiftly.

    Foreign aid seems the right mechanism and is broadly at the right kind of level. Continue with that.
    To me, foreign aid also appears to fall into the category of something we can't afford but pay for anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    Nevada update:

    https://x.com/ralstonreports/status/1849303048633639064

    New numbers just dropped:

    Republicans won early in-person voting again by 2-to-1, picking up 8,000 ballots.

    About 400,000 people have voted, and with mail, GOP statewide lead almost 20,000 ballots.

    Unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    edited October 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Ah! Thank you.
    Just realised my answer wasn't clear - When I said knock up done by mobile phone and internet, you do still physically knock up, but you download and upload the data via your mobile phone.

    For someone who remembers carbon copy shuttleworths I am feeling very old.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Britain still spends a fair wodge on the International Aid budget. It's not hard to envisage a rebrand of that from Aid to Reparations, with no extra money being spent.

    The difference might be that it would be ringfenced for former British colonies, and the governments of those countries would have more say in how it was spent. Whether that would make the spending more effective I'm not sure. The best argument against Western aid spending is that it's been very ineffective, so it might be worth a try.
    That doesn't sounds too bad, actually. If foreign aid were to be spent anywhere surely we should prioritise those with historical links to the UK?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    Leon said:

    The Labour government is going to fold. They really are. Everyone can see how they caved on Chagos

    From the guardian

    “Starmer under pressure to accept case for slavery reparations, as Commonwealth minister claims UK will eventually agree
    Keir Starmer has been told by Commonwealth leaders he must come to the table to discuss reparations for the “ill effects” of slavery, PA Media reports.

    Commonwealth nations are looking at an agreement that could begin conversations on the issue through a communique, according to the BBC.

    Frederick Mitchell, foreign minister for the Bahamas, told the Today programme that Starmer should take part in a discussion which “needs to be had about the history” around reparations. Mitchell said:

    There appears to be even a reluctance to have the conversation start.
    Many of the institutions in the UK have already conceded the point of apology, the British government isn’t quite there.
    But at this time, the discussion needs to be had about the history of this and the ill effects of what happened after slavery was abolished, which continue to affect our societies today.
    Mitchell said that he expected discussions on the wording of the communique to continue overnight and that leaders might have to get involved in settling the details. He indicated there was some opposition to having a declaration on reparatory justice in the communique – even though countries like his, he said, thought this wording was “innocuous” and that there really should be “an apology and a commitment to reparations”.

    He also predicted that eventually Starmer would shift on this. “It’s only a matter of time before his position changes, I am confident of it,” Mitchell said”

    I bet he’s confident. Labour will buckle but they will try and disguise it as something else. Spineless fucking cretins

    Can you blame them?

    They know a soft touch when they see one.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    HYUFD said:

    Regardless Harris would still be able to call that state for her under the constitution for the VP declares the results of the presidential election not the SC, nothing the SC can do about that.

    That's not right. The VP reads out the results as passed to Congress by the States. If the State refuses to send a result then there's nothing for the VP to act on. They can't simply make up a result.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,555

    They will care, because the amount will become public and it will be priced and billed per household by opposition parties. Just look at how much the Foreign Aid budget is criticised, and that is far from the same thing.

    It would destroy Labour. Still think they might do it because Starmer is naturally sympathetic and has a tin-ear for public opinion, but it'd be catastrophic.
    The Government is saying it has zero money - if it can find money to give to some Caribbean countries then the general public is going to think (at best) that they are a bunch of liars ala Bozo and co.

    And that's at best - many people would regard them as being utterly incompetent and not caring about their own citizens.

    I suspect the next week will determine the next election result - decent budget and no stupid decisions and Labour will do well.

    Crap budget and a money sent on "slave reparations" and Labour will be destroyed at the next election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    RobD said:

    That doesn't sounds too bad, actually. If foreign aid were to be spent anywhere surely we should prioritise those with historical links to the UK?
    That's an issue with the idea. It would also involve sending more money to India, an advanced country with nuclear weapons, terrible internal human rights, and which is now assassinating people abroad...

    But generally I'm in favour of the international aid budget.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    edited October 2024

    That very quickly turns into politicised history, both by the selection of the material and the emphasis placed on that material. And, if you teach shame about the history of Britain then you will create a generation who have shame in Britain.

    That doesn't mean you ignore it, or gloss over it, but it does mean that you put any crimes in the context of the time, what others were doing, what the world was like, and also what positives resulted as well. Because these exist throughout history and have shaped Britain and the world accordingly.

    History should be about history, not a vehicle to advance contemporary political agendas.
    LOL, called it.

    And as if all history isn't advancing some agenda.
    If you think I'm advocating the teaching of shame, then you're more of a fool than I took you for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Catching up reading pb.com after presenting to 800 people at a conference in Ashgabat, following on from the Energy Minister's keynote speech.

    Life comes at you fast some time...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,328
    At this point I just want every left winger in the world to fall off a cliff. They are destroying the west. Mankind’s greatest creation

    And they are doing it by poisoning it with entirely unjustified guilt
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    RobD said:

    That doesn't sounds too bad, actually. If foreign aid were to be spent anywhere surely we should prioritise those with historical links to the UK?
    The problem is that it signals guilt and culpability and therefore there wouldn't be gratitude or anything positive built from the relationship, because it'd be about compensation and what's owed.

    If it were about developing allies of Britain and building a strong partnership into the future, perhaps to check China and defend mutual values, that'd be entirely different.

    The framing goals, objectives, reasoning and positioning are entirely different.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,352
    ..

    It's not just economic, it's political.

    Outside of bien pensant metropolitan circles support for this is astonishingly low, and for good reason, and it'd be like throwing petrol on the flames of culture wars.

    I can scarcely think of anything worse the government could do.
    I don't think it'd just be Con/Ref pushing it - it'd make a nice wedge for the SNP/Indie movement as well.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,817
    Carnyx said:

    Also: the Conservatives love history as a vehicle for their agendas. Statue-saving and all that.

    Vide the demand to make Our Island Story a key school book once again, as per Mr Gove.

    Mind,

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2014/feb/07/our-island-story-conservative-david-cameron
    I loved the Scotland's Story equivalent with its wonderful illustrations. A very Pre-Raphaelite "Brave Catherine" sticking her arm where the bolt should have been as the murderers of James 1 were pushing on the other side of the door. A rather bossy Black Agnes getting her maids to dust the walls of Dunbar Castle as it was being pounded by cannon fire.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    Labour are defending council seats today in Calderdale, Crawley, Denbighshire, Middlesbrough, Monmouthshire, South Ribble.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19154/local-council-elections-24th-october?page=1&scrollTo=1552254
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101

    How do you build any coherent set of political beliefs and the agendas that spring from them without reference to history?

    That is the job of political parties and movements, who wish to explain why their principles have a reference point in history.

    It is not the job of historians to do the job for them the other way round.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    This has probably finally decided my vote for Kemi, which I'll return today.

    She'd eat Labour for lunch over this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,867

    Proof that Donald Trump is a terrible human being who doesn’t deserve to be back in the Oval Office.

    Trump: "You have no idea what I did in the White House. I stopped wars with France”

    This dude's brain is cooked


    https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1849246971157987767?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    THE ORANGE TWAT STOPPED A WAR AGAINST FRANCE!!!

    To be fair, wars with France come under the "One hand behind my back and it's still boring" category.

    Remember what Beresford said about the Russian Fleet after the Dogger Bank Incident?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    edited October 2024

    That's not right. The VP reads out the results as passed to Congress by the States. If the State refuses to send a result then there's nothing for the VP to act on. They can't simply make up a result.
    No it is right. Pence as VP had he called the swing states for Trump would have made Trump President.

    Harris would just use a Democrat governor or some Democrat state legislators or officials to send her state results if Republicans refused and nothing in the constitution to stop that. Just as Trump sent alternative results for swing states from GOP state legislators and officials for Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc but Pence bravely rejected them and called Biden and Harris the winners
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,380
    edited October 2024
    Don't support reparations, but find it amusing the people getting particularly angry about this and suggesting we should leave the Commonwealth are *exactly the same people* who argued for Brexit on the basis it would enable us to forge closer links with the Commonwealth.
    Combine that with Trump's planned tariffs and abandonment of Ukraine and it becomes clear how utterly atrocious the Brexiteers' predictions were on foreign policy. Dan Hannan is an absolute moron.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    Cookie said:

    For the 1750-1950 period, it doesn't seem apparent to me from looking at what my daughters are taught that we teach any of the good along with the bad.

    Postwar is taught nowadays, yes.
    Is that postwar world history, or postwar Britain ?
  • moonshine said:

    Well, Harris is quite proud about saying she believes in equality of outcome rather than equality of opportunity. Which arguably makes her more of a communist than it does Trump a fascist.
    Nice weaselly little ‘arguably’ in there! Is Harris on record saying ‘she believes in equality of outcome rather than equality of opportunity’? In fact Marx saw equality of outcome as a bourgeois moral concept, something in which he was uninterested.

    Otoh Fascists were very keen on coups, subverting democracy and racism. Sounds familiar..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    Nearly four million died on Britain’s watch, there has to be a reckoning even if it wasn’t malicious.
    Utter bollox, if you look at the crap over the centuries you would disappear up your own fundamental, would just be a money merrygoround and end up back at hee haw. They want to stick to looking at their opwn imperfections, murderous deeds , etc.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,283

    The problem is that it signals guilt and culpability and therefore there wouldn't be gratitude or anything positive built from the relationship, because it'd be about compensation and what's owed.

    If it were about developing allies of Britain and building a strong partnership into the future, perhaps to check China and defend mutual values, that'd be entirely different.

    The framing goals, objectives, reasoning and positioning are entirely different.
    The interesting thing is that this is flipping the Commonwealth as a forum on its head.

    If it simply becomes a meeting where the UK is repeatedly castigated and told to pay up, does it become less attractive for the UK to really involve itself anymore? The ties are loosening. The Commonwealth Games are in a perma-crisis. Other nations are building new relationships rather than with the old colonial power.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,867
    Left out the important stuff.

    What watch was he wearing? What shoes? Was he a modest lawyer?
  • HYUFD said:

    No it is right. Pence as VP had he called the swing states for Trump would have made Trump President.

    Harris would just use a Democrat governor or some Democrat state legislators to send her state results if Republicans refused and nothing in the constitution to stop that. Just as Trump sent alternative results for swing states from GOP state legislators and officials for Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc but Pence bravely rejected them and called Harris the winner

    "Harris would just use a Democrat governor or some Democrat state legislators to send her state results if Republicans refused and nothing in the constitution to stop that."

    And there is nothing in the constitution preventing a Supreme Court challenge to such a move - or preventing the Supreme Court from accepting such a case.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour are defending council seats today in Calderdale, Crawley, Denbighshire, Middlesbrough, Monmouthshire, South Ribble.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19154/local-council-elections-24th-october?page=1&scrollTo=1552254

    Reparations for slavery should play well in...exactly none of them.
  • Something that is rarely discussed, in the over-nervous climate in the U.S. at the moment, is that at times, as well as being quick on her feet and charismatic, Harris is able to conjure up something, at times, that Hilary Clinton never could; a certain relaxed sex appeal. There are shades of someone that you might have seen in a trendy, funky nightclub in 1980's or 1990"s metropolitan America.

    This matters, because it means that she's.able to counter Trump's, equivalent and folksy, down-home appeal, in a way that Clinton couldn't match.
  • HYUFD said:


    No it is right. Pence as VP had he called the swing states for Trump would have made Trump President.

    Harris would just use a Democrat governor or some Democrat state legislators or officials to send her state results if Republicans refused and nothing in the constitution to stop that. Just as Trump sent alternative results for swing states from GOP state legislators and officials for Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc but Pence bravely rejected them and called Harris the winner

    You’ve missed this from 2022.

    Congress on Friday gave final passage to legislation changing the arcane law that governs the certification of a presidential contest, the strongest effort yet to avoid a repeat of Donald Trump’s violence-inflaming push to reverse his loss in the 2020 election.

    The House passed an overhaul of the Electoral Count Act as part of its massive, end-of-the-year spending bill, after the Senate approved identical wording Thursday. The legislation now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

    Biden hailed the provisions’ inclusion in the spending bill in a statement Friday, calling it “critical bipartisan action that will help ensure that the will of the people is preserved.”

    It’s the most significant legislative response Congress has made yet to Trump’s aggressive efforts to upend the popular vote, and a step that been urged by the House select committee that conducted the most thorough investigation into the violent siege of the Capitol.

    The provisions amending the 1887 law — which has long been criticized as poorly and confusingly written — won bipartisan support and would make it harder for future presidential losers to prevent the ascension of their foes, as Trump tried to do on Jan. 6, 2021.



    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/congress-approves-new-election-certification-rules-in-response-to-jan-6
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,229
    Incidentally, when Bok came to the US, he was taken care of by Christians in North Dakota.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    malcolmg said:

    I am banned from Twitter for saying the Russians should get thrashed, Musk obviously loves Putin , given you can say almost anything on there and not get banned. Life has improved since the ban.
    For whom ? :wink:
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,217
    Leon said:

    The Labour government is going to fold. They really are. Everyone can see how they caved on Chagos

    From the guardian

    “Starmer under pressure to accept case for slavery reparations, as Commonwealth minister claims UK will eventually agree
    Keir Starmer has been told by Commonwealth leaders he must come to the table to discuss reparations for the “ill effects” of slavery, PA Media reports.

    Commonwealth nations are looking at an agreement that could begin conversations on the issue through a communique, according to the BBC.

    Frederick Mitchell, foreign minister for the Bahamas, told the Today programme that Starmer should take part in a discussion which “needs to be had about the history” around reparations. Mitchell said:

    There appears to be even a reluctance to have the conversation start.
    Many of the institutions in the UK have already conceded the point of apology, the British government isn’t quite there.
    But at this time, the discussion needs to be had about the history of this and the ill effects of what happened after slavery was abolished, which continue to affect our societies today.
    Mitchell said that he expected discussions on the wording of the communique to continue overnight and that leaders might have to get involved in settling the details. He indicated there was some opposition to having a declaration on reparatory justice in the communique – even though countries like his, he said, thought this wording was “innocuous” and that there really should be “an apology and a commitment to reparations”.

    He also predicted that eventually Starmer would shift on this. “It’s only a matter of time before his position changes, I am confident of it,” Mitchell said”


    I bet he’s confident. Labour will buckle but they will try and disguise it as something else. Spineless fucking cretins

    You voted for them too Leon !!!

    A shakedown is a shakedown but I suspect you are right. Labour will buckle. Just as the Tories did on Climate reparations at a COP meeting. It starts small but ends up growing and becoming vast.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67581277

    I also noted that Ayesha Hazarika was, on TV today, pretty much saying we should pay them and she is not from the lunatic labour fringe.

    Labour will yield on this. It won't be the trillions, but they will yield.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003

    The interesting thing is that this is flipping the Commonwealth as a forum on its head.

    If it simply becomes a meeting where the UK is repeatedly castigated and told to pay up, does it become less attractive for the UK to really involve itself anymore? The ties are loosening. The Commonwealth Games are in a perma-crisis. Other nations are building new relationships rather than with the old colonial power.
    Yes, perhaps we ought to be looking at some form of ... European grouping ?
    Who knows where that might lead.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    The problem is that it signals guilt and culpability and therefore there wouldn't be gratitude or anything positive built from the relationship, because it'd be about compensation and what's owed.

    If it were about developing allies of Britain and building a strong partnership into the future, perhaps to check China and defend mutual values, that'd be entirely different.

    The framing goals, objectives, reasoning and positioning are entirely different.
    I think that's a fair critique. The framing of a relationship is important.

    I think part of the drive for reparations is that the framing of international aid as charity is not working for the recipient countries. It infantilises them and encourages dependence rather than development.

    Hopefully there is a compromise that could be built around the idea of a better shared future, as you suggest.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    They will care, because the amount will become public and it will be priced and billed per household by opposition parties. Just look at how much the Foreign Aid budget is criticised, and that is far from the same thing.

    It would destroy Labour. Still think they might do it because Starmer is naturally sympathetic and has a tin-ear for public opinion, but it'd be catastrophic.
    There is no way this government will be getting into the paying of reparations for slavery. It would be anathema to the sort of voters that Labour prioritised to win their majority and who they continue to prioritise. The main threat to Starmer comes from his right not his left and he knows this. Eg there are a ton of Labour seats now where RUK is the challenger. No, not happening. You can relax.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Nigelb said:

    For whom ? :wink:
    >:)
  • Leon said:

    At this point I just want every left winger in the world to fall off a cliff. They are destroying the west. Mankind’s greatest creation

    And they are doing it by poisoning it with entirely unjustified guilt

    Lol, its your mate Trumpy who will destroy the West.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,283

    Don't support reparations, but find it amusing the people getting particularly angry about this and suggesting we should leave the Commonwealth are *exactly the same people* who argued for Brexit on the basis it would enable us to forge closer links with the Commonwealth.
    Combine that with Trump's planned tariffs and abandonment of Ukraine and it becomes clear how utterly atrocious the Brexiteers' predictions were on foreign policy. Dan Hannan is an absolute moron.

    The “we should forge closer ties with the Commonwealth” thing was a misreading of the geopolitical situation (though you could perhaps form a -slightly- more coherent argument about closer ties with say NZ, AUS, CA, though that comes with its own challenges).

    The historical fact of the matter is that the time for the Commonwealth to remake itself in some grand, more egalitarian, integrated community has long passed, if it was ever a goer. Perhaps it is not inconceivable that something could have been built from the organisation in say the 1950s and 1960s, but that would have also have run contrary to the general decolonisation and desire for independence that was permeating at the time, and its far from clear that many Commonwealth nations would have signed up to greater economic/political union at a time when they were actively seeking more control over their affairs. The Commonwealth worked for them as it was because it was an informal club. And in any event, the UK entering Europe in the first place put paid to that. Now, history has marched on, the ties that bind are loosening, and there are far too many interests at play that mean it would never be a serious proposition.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667

    I think if someone feels that they personally want to contribute something of their inherited wealth to assuage their conscience, that is absolutely fine and and quite a worthy view (though who you give it to is a bigger question). I don’t think you’re obliged to, though - it’s not your actions after all. But yes, morally, I understand the argument.

    But, like you, I do not agree that there is some generic obligation on nations and peoples to compensate for stuff that that nation did that no-one in charge today had any responsibility for. The framing of the debate is frustrating though. Morally, many would argue that through the principles of charity etc it is incumbent on more wealthy/powerful countries to support poorer ones. It’s why we have an overseas aid budget, of course. Dressing support up in the language of reparations etc just generates and sustains grievances.
    I think that's right, and I'm in favour of a larger overseas aid budget - it's ridiculous that we worry about minor inconveniences and grudges when people are literally starving. It should be based on a mixture of where it's most needed and where it will be spent most effectively. It shouldn't be based on what our forebears did 500 years ago. Arguably that would lead us to send money to prosperous countries in Europe which we treated badly in a previous century.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,217
    malcolmg said:

    Utter bollox, if you look at the crap over the centuries you would disappear up your own fundamental, would just be a money merrygoround and end up back at hee haw. They want to stick to looking at their opwn imperfections, murderous deeds , etc.
    Afternoon Malc.

    Hope you are good.

    Do you fancy digging deep to pay reparations to line the pockets of the political classes of the Caribbean ?

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,380
    kinabalu said:

    There is no way this government will be getting into the paying of reparations for slavery. It would be anathema to the sort of voters that Labour prioritised to win their majority and who they continue to prioritise. The main threat to Starmer comes from his right not his left and he knows this. Eg there are a ton of Labour seats now where RUK is the challenger. No, not happening. You can relax.
    Yeah, I agree. I can't see McSweeney giving the go ahead on this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    On the topic of contested history...

    US Naval Academy disinvites historian @ruthbenghiat from a history department lecture under pressure from the Heritage Foundation--founders of Project 2025.
    Intended lecture was what happens to militaries under authoritarian rule through history

    https://x.com/jemillerbalt/status/1848690507876024456
  • kinabalu said:

    There is no way this government will be getting into the paying of reparations for slavery. It would be anathema to the sort of voters that Labour prioritised to win their majority and who they continue to prioritise. The main threat to Starmer comes from his right not his left and he knows this. Eg there are a ton of Labour seats now where RUK is the challenger. No, not happening. You can relax.
    You are assuming that people on the right want to relax about this.
This discussion has been closed.