Don’t panic – politicalbetting.com

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Don’t panic – politicalbetting.com

I tend to think the so-called Democratic panic is quite overblown at this point. Harris still has a very clear path to 270 votes… The polls show Harris basically even (if not slightly ahead) in the Great Lake battlegrounds.She also still has a potential backup Sun Belt path. pic.twitter.com/xAMSG4q4ek

Read the full story here

Pro_Rata

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a donkey, for that makes a suggestion of who might be first. Not an elephant either.

First, like a musk rat.

No, no, not neutral enough.

First like a tail pinned on a nine banded armadillo. With difficulty.

ydoethur

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

TimS

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

ydoethur

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

1876 all over again.

But this time, the candidate rigging the vote wins.

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

Nigelb

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Not necessarily.

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

Nigelb

Never tell your electrical engineer parent you want to be a Transformer for Halloween.
https://x.com/TimothyImholt/status/1849046895701766384

ydoethur

Speaking of donkeys, England doing what England do best and collapsing in an embarrassing heap.

Isn't it time that somebody asked some hard questions about Crawley and Pope? Nick Knight and Graeme Hick must be looking on in bewilderment at these two being apparently bullet-proof.

Stuartinromford

January 2021 only played out as (relatively) benignly as it did because some key players betrayed The Donald at the crucial moment. And well done them, even if it was a deathbed conversation.

The other disturbing thing about the next few months is the nagging sense that that wouldn't happen this time.

Dictatorships tend not to get rid of the theatre of democracy, they just render it a pointless facade.

TheScreamingEagles

England cricket fans can panic though.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Surely today SKS has to resign, after all he didn’t resign last week for going to a Taylor Swift concert so surely he must resign now for his staff SHOCKINGLY not supporting Trump.

How about Farage buggers off for life too for doing the same thing and then I will gladly see SKS put in prison.

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

Either party could fit the bill....Either side if the equation.

Starmer will be loathed by the next election.

Nigelb

The U.S. liberal media.

My friend Mariel Garza just resigned as editorials editor of @latimes after the newspaper’s owner blocked the editorial board’s plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
https://x.com/sewellchan/status/1849201413445869900

As Musk's free speech petition lottery also demonstrates, US billionaires regard free speech as something to be bought by the highest bidder.

Pro_Rata

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

He's solidly sat on the fence on Tory leadership candidates though

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

England cricket fans can panic though.

Why? Surely panic should be kept for things not going as expected?

Foxy

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

Either party could fit the bill....Either side if the equation.

Starmer will be loathed by the next election.

He always has been by some.

I wouldn't call the next election just yet. There's 4 years and another Tory leadership contest to get through first.

eek

Nigelb said:

The U.S. liberal media.

My friend Mariel Garza just resigned as editorials editor of @latimes after the newspaper’s owner blocked the editorial board’s plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
https://x.com/sewellchan/status/1849201413445869900

As Musk's free speech petition lottery also demonstrates, US billionaires regard free speech as something to be bought by the highest bidder.

Surely the owner of a newspaper can determine who the paper endorses / supports.

noneoftheabove

eek said:

Nigelb said:

The U.S. liberal media.

My friend Mariel Garza just resigned as editorials editor of @latimes after the newspaper’s owner blocked the editorial board’s plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
https://x.com/sewellchan/status/1849201413445869900

As Musk's free speech petition lottery also demonstrates, US billionaires regard free speech as something to be bought by the highest bidder.

Surely the owner of a newspaper can determine who the paper endorses / supports.

Historically typically done by appointing the editor rather than overruling the editor......

Nigelb

eek said:

Nigelb said:

The U.S. liberal media.

My friend Mariel Garza just resigned as editorials editor of @latimes after the newspaper’s owner blocked the editorial board’s plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
https://x.com/sewellchan/status/1849201413445869900

As Musk's free speech petition lottery also demonstrates, US billionaires regard free speech as something to be bought by the highest bidder.

Surely the owner of a newspaper can determine who the paper endorses / supports.

As this shows, they can indeed.

Nigelb

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

squareroot2

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

Either party could fit the bill....Either side if the equation.

Starmer will be loathed by the next election.

He always has been by some.

I wouldn't call the next election just yet. There's 4 years and another Tory leadership contest to get through first.

Yes I know. The Tory leader could be just as disliked. It's likely to be one bad candidate versus another and the devil you know may well take preference

Pro_Rata

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

Nigelb

Support for increasing legal immigration by expanding family-sponsored and employment-based visas:

Support: 59%
Oppose: 26%

YouGov / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1615
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849119821826511034

DavidL

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

Either party could fit the bill....Either side if the equation.

Starmer will be loathed by the next election.

He always has been by some.

I wouldn't call the next election just yet. There's 4 years and another Tory leadership contest to get through first.

You mean another one after the completion of the current one? Very probably. I can't see either of these contenders leading the Tories into an election they want to survive.

DavidL

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality nearly 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

Nigelb

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

Or they're on the fence over Stein and West ..

Net Favorables:

Harris: Even

Walz: -3%
Vance: -6%
Trump: -7%
West: -10%
Stein: -16%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211019769286973

ydoethur

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

Nigelb said:

The U.S. liberal media.

My friend Mariel Garza just resigned as editorials editor of @latimes after the newspaper’s owner blocked the editorial board’s plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
https://x.com/sewellchan/status/1849201413445869900

As Musk's free speech petition lottery also demonstrates, US billionaires regard free speech as something to be bought by the highest bidder.

Surely the owner of a newspaper can determine who the paper endorses / supports.

Historically typically done by appointing the editor rather than overruling the editor......

Or, a la Lord Northcliffe, editing it himself.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

Nigelb

Unlike the Texas seat, which is still a long shot chance for the Democrats, that Florida senate seat hasn't looked in play for a while now.

Florida Senate Polling:

Scott (R): 53%
Mucarsel-Powell (D): 47%

Emerson / Oct 20, 2024 / n=860
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849116751868670016

Theuniondivvie

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

eek

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality nearly 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

Fix for that would be the Oz approach of voting or pay a fine.

However that would result in people voting for the f*** you candidate at which point Trump would be winning at a canter..

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Divvie, I could be wrong but I think Chrome and Firefox have translation options. More of a hassle, but may be a workaround for you.

SouthamObserver

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

SouthamObserver

Theuniondivvie said:

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

Still works for me. If I click on a post I get a translate option.

squareroot2

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

First, like - wear a blindfold and stick the tail on the donkey.

But perhaps not a Donkey, for that is too suggestive of who might be first.

Donkeys are also called Asses.

But there are no Asses standing for election.

There's a Harris, and an Asshole.

We will be faced with the same problem in the UK

*Looks puzzled as he scrolls through Labour MPs*

Are you tipping Carolyn Harris as Sir Keir's replacement?

Either party could fit the bill....Either side if the equation.

Starmer will be loathed by the next election.

He always has been by some.

I wouldn't call the next election just yet. There's 4 years and another Tory leadership contest to get through first.

You mean another one after the completion of the current one? Very probably. I can't see either of these contenders leading the Tories into an election they want to survive.

Indeed yes and it's possible the Tories might be wiped out and the Yellow peril might come to the fore⁹⁹

Cookie

Why are politicians running for office - and especially American politicians - so often photographed pointing? It reeks of insincerity.

JosiasJessop

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

The problem with people who think that is simple: why do they think he is lying just about those issues, and not the issues they care most about? If you like him because of his stance on (say) immigrants, why wouldn't he just be lying about that as well?

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

For the first two, we would just need to make sure that he sees on Twitter that Putin has referred to him as Mr. Poopy pants. Then suddenly Trump would be sending his entire nuclear arsenal to Ukraine.

The other, just ask Xi to pay him a big bribe.

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

stjohn

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality nearly 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

You'd have to check what screens they apply before polling.

Quite a few pollsters screen for likely voters, so this could well be likely but undecided.

SouthamObserver

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

Theuniondivvie

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

Still works for me. If I click on a post I get a translate option.

It’s happened several times for me in the last week eg below.
I wonder if I’ve unwittingly clicked a setting or if the original tweeter hasn’t chosen it as an option.

https://x.com/rolandtichy/status/1849341403702198448?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Edit: Ha, ‘translate post’ now showing! Elon obviously looking in, cheers.

SouthamObserver

Theuniondivvie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

Still works for me. If I click on a post I get a translate option.

It’s happened several times for me in the last week eg below.
I wonder if I’ve unwittingly clicked a setting or if the original tweeter hasn’t chosen it as an option.

https://x.com/rolandtichy/status/1849341403702198448?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Ha, ‘translate post’ now showing! Elon obviously looking in, cheers.

I get the translate option for that one ...

Disastrous polls: The state, which is supposed to do everything in the spirit of the traffic light coalition, is failing completely - and the politicians have no idea what is troubling the citizens

stjohn

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

ydoethur

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

They said he had immunity when he didn't.

Edit - a more plausible outcome, if Harris has fewer than 285 votes, would be to declare the Georgia outcome null and throw the election to Congress, which would almost certainly vote for Trump. That could be done, and while clearly criminal it wouldn't technically be illegal.

felix

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

More so than the UK Labour party is ready for even a white woman to take charge here.

SouthamObserver

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

Coney Barrett actually is less pro-Trump than Alito. For example, she criticised the immunity ruling's breadth while agreeing with the substance.

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/07/supreme-court-amy-coney-barrett-trump-immunity

DecrepiterJohnL

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

Still works for me. If I click on a post I get a translate option.

Same here. Select the tweet and translate post appears. But it is not reliable. It does not seem to appear on graphics-heavy tweets, for instance. As with all things TwiX it is hard to know what is an old bug, what has recently broken, and what is deliberate following Elon's latest brainstorm.

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

I think a good rule of thumb is to assume that people who say hateful things are being entirely sincere.

When Trump calls opponents “vermin”, says of immigrants “they’re not humans, they’re animals”, speaks of “ bad genes”, he’s saying what he truly believes.

Mexicanpete

felix said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

More so than the UK Labour party is ready for even a white woman to take charge here.

I am not sure of the relevance under the circumstances, but for whatever the reason it is not a good look for a purported to be inclusive Labour Party.

SouthamObserver

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

I think a good rule of thumb is to assume that people who say hateful things are being entirely sincere.

When Trump calls opponents “vermin”, says of immigrants “they’re not humans, they’re animals”, speaks of “ bad genes”, he’s saying what he truly believes.

Yep, that's my view too. But I very much hope I am wrong.

DecrepiterJohnL

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Following an unbroken eight-year stretch of White male presidents...

Theuniondivvie

DecrepiterJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

Still works for me. If I click on a post I get a translate option.

Same here. Select the tweet and translate post appears. But it is not reliable. It does not seem to appear on graphics-heavy tweets, for instance. As with all things TwiX it is hard to know what is an old bug, what has recently broken, and what is deliberate following Elon's latest brainstorm.

I click through here on that tweet and it translates, still no translation on my Twitter feed. Weird.

stjohn

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

Pulpstar

Nigelb said:

Never tell your electrical engineer parent you want to be a Transformer for Halloween.
https://x.com/TimothyImholt/status/1849046895701766384

Down to earth parenting.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Following an unbroken eight-year stretch of White male presidents...

Delete the word 'white' and it's an unbroken 236 year stretch.

noneoftheabove

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

Yes, yes, and err, no.

ydoethur

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

You are assuming the Supreme Court are worried about the threat of violence.

Their recent rulings suggest they're just fine with it.

rottenborough

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

Never tell your electrical engineer parent you want to be a Transformer for Halloween.
https://x.com/TimothyImholt/status/1849046895701766384

Down to earth parenting.

Her expression is not neutral.

I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that tweet and photo either, unless it was her idea. That's the kind of thing that can lead to some highly unpleasant bullying.

eek

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

from wikipedia

Chester James Carville Jr. is an American political consultant, author, and occasional actor who has strategized for candidates for public office in the United States and in at least 23 nations abroad.

And yet Trump is complaining about a few brits using their holiday to campaign in the States.

Stereodog

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

I think a good rule of thumb is to assume that people who say hateful things are being entirely sincere.

When Trump calls opponents “vermin”, says of immigrants “they’re not humans, they’re animals”, speaks of “ bad genes”, he’s saying what he truly believes.

I hope that international leaders have given some serious thoughts about how to exploit Trump's massive personal flaws. For example Ukraine could say that any missiles sent by the US will be renamed 'Trump's Massive Vengeance' or make him the first ever Grand High Poobah of NATO.

eek

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

what international reaction would matter? the judges that Trump appointed will have done the job they were appointed to do

It's why you don't want the result settled by a single state...

Sean_F

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

I don’t think his opinion is worth more than a fart, TBH.

Mexicanpete

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

I believe you are correct. Is is a fairly reasonable bet that the SC overturns as many states as it takes to furnish a Trump win, particularly in the event that Trump wins the popular vote and loses the College.

SouthamObserver

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

The whole point is that the Supreme Court will have fond a way to rule that Harris did not win fair and square. Obviously, there would be a huge backlash in the US. Internationally, I suspect most governments would say it was an internal matter for the US. The court won't care about either.

Sean_F

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

I believe you are correct. Is is a fairly reasonable bet that the SC overturns as many states as it takes to furnish a Trump win, particularly in the event that Trump wins the popular vote and loses the College.

If, say, Harris wins 350 EC votes, they can’t overturn it.

If it’s close to a tie, they’ll put their thumb on the scales for Trump.

Malmesbury

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

Maybe he is lying about lying about lying about lying about lying about lying about lying about lying?

Alternatively….

Cookie

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

DecrepiterJohnL

Theuniondivvie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A minor thing in the face of Trump II and an England collapse, but has TwitterX deactivated its translation option for non English tweets? Pitfa if so.

Still works for me. If I click on a post I get a translate option.

Same here. Select the tweet and translate post appears. But it is not reliable. It does not seem to appear on graphics-heavy tweets, for instance. As with all things TwiX it is hard to know what is an old bug, what has recently broken, and what is deliberate following Elon's latest brainstorm.

I click through here on that tweet and it translates, still no translation on my Twitter feed. Weird.

Dunno. Try the usual stuff. Check your settings, clear cache, clear TwiX cookies, sacrifice a small mammal...

stjohn

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

That comment has shades of Blair about it. "It's not a day for soundbites (and yet).... I feel the hand of history upon our shoulder"

Mexicanpete

Sean_F said:

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

I believe you are correct. Is is a fairly reasonable bet that the SC overturns as many states as it takes to furnish a Trump win, particularly in the event that Trump wins the popular vote and loses the College.

If, say, Harris wins 350 EC votes, they can’t overturn it.

If it’s close to a tie, they’ll put their thumb on the scales for Trump.

Surely overturning a couple of the bigger states covering 30 plus College Elector spots is a fairly doable ask.

Malmesbury

Stereodog said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

I hope that the people who are essentially saying that Trump is lying about ceasing support for Ukraine, not following NATO Article 5 and imposing tariffs on all imports are right. He is certainly a liar, so there is a chance.

I think a good rule of thumb is to assume that people who say hateful things are being entirely sincere.

When Trump calls opponents “vermin”, says of immigrants “they’re not humans, they’re animals”, speaks of “ bad genes”, he’s saying what he truly believes.

I hope that international leaders have given some serious thoughts about how to exploit Trump's massive personal flaws. For example Ukraine could say that any missiles sent by the US will be renamed 'Trump's Massive Vengeance' or make him the first ever Grand High Poobah of NATO.

I have long suspected that if Trump wins, Ukraine will discover a back up of Hunter Biddens laptops, a copy of Hillary’s emails and the keys to the basement of the pizza shop…

Malmesbury

noneoftheabove said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

Yes, yes, and err, no.

The SC clowns would need *something* to lot the opinion from. The only question it what tenuous bullshit would make the grade.

viewcode

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

I'm sure he's lovely and visits his Mum regularly, but it's hopecasting. He does make a good point (Harris has lots of money) but I don't know it's conclusive

https://archive.is/AsWhB

Malmesbury

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

I wouldn’t say vacuous. But she isn’t a Big Beast in national level politics. She’s the B- candidate, unfortunately.

Take a look at recent videos of Obama to see what one looks like.

Malmesbury

Mexicanpete said:

Sean_F said:

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

I believe you are correct. Is is a fairly reasonable bet that the SC overturns as many states as it takes to furnish a Trump win, particularly in the event that Trump wins the popular vote and loses the College.

If, say, Harris wins 350 EC votes, they can’t overturn it.

If it’s close to a tie, they’ll put their thumb on the scales for Trump.

Surely overturning a couple of the bigger states covering 30 plus College Elector spots is a fairly doable ask.

For LOLs, imagine Harris wins Texas and they have to try to fiddle that.

Mexicanpete

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

So am I looking in from across the Atlantic, nonetheless the result will have a bearing on how we roll over here

Harris has been confident, witty, sure footed and positive. An absolute mirror image of her opponent. See his Al Smith speech.

It might not be enough.

Fishing

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Following an unbroken eight-year stretch of White male presidents...

Delete the word 'white' and it's an unbroken 236 year stretch.

Replacing the word "president" with "head of state" takes you back a further 75 years to Queen Anne (d.1714).

Leon

Nigelb said:

The U.S. liberal media.

My friend Mariel Garza just resigned as editorials editor of @latimes after the newspaper’s owner blocked the editorial board’s plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
https://x.com/sewellchan/status/1849201413445869900

As Musk's free speech petition lottery also demonstrates, US billionaires regard free speech as something to be bought by the highest bidder.

Strangely, it never seems to bother you the other way round, eg Zuckeberg pimping for Biden to censor "lab leak", an act Zuck now regrets

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/27/mark-zuckerberg-says-white-house-pressured-facebook-to-censor-covid-19-content

stjohn

So the consensus here this morning is that if Harris wins the Electoral College by only a small margin and it gets to the SC then Trump will ultimately win the election. If this is an accurate assessment then it accounts for the betting. Two candidates are neck and neck in the polls but one is clear odds on (though drifting a bit) to win.

Dopermean

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

I've seen a lot of posts saying Harris is a poor candidate but none with any clear explanation.

The USA is clearly very misogynistic as evidenced by the current battle over abortion rights, incels and the young male following of toxic misogynistic social media personalities.

So I wouldn't agree that the USA is ready for a woman president (unlike other countries in America), the evidence is that they'll elect a white male media personality with no previous political or legislative experience over a highly experienced female candidate.

Claiming that highly experienced candidate is a diversity pick just underlines the case that her opponents are racist and sexist.

Anabobazina

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

OT?

On topic or off topic?

Most useless PB abbreviation ever!

Sean_F

viewcode said:

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

I'm sure he's lovely and visits his Mum regularly, but it's hopecasting. He does make a good point (Harris has lots of money) but I don't know it's conclusive

https://archive.is/AsWhB

There’s nothing in that article but wishful thinking.

kinabalu

viewcode said:

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

I'm sure he's lovely and visits his Mum regularly, but it's hopecasting. He does make a good point (Harris has lots of money) but I don't know it's conclusive

https://archive.is/AsWhB

Anyone claiming certainty about the outcome is either hopecasting or doomsaying (depending on whether they're indulging the optimistic or pessimistic side of their nature).

Scott_xP

stjohn said:

So the consensus here this morning is that if Harris wins the Electoral College by only a small margin and it gets to the SC then Trump will ultimately win the election. If this is an accurate assessment then it accounts for the betting. Two candidates are neck and neck in the piolls but one is clear odds on (though drifting a bit) to win.

That's when the wording of the bets becomes important

Who 'wins the election' might not be the same as 'next President'

Nigelb

eek said:

rottenborough said:

OT.

"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."


James Carville: Why I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html


(Posted yesterday but just in case anyone missed it).

from wikipedia

Chester James Carville Jr. is an American political consultant, author, and occasional actor who has strategized for candidates for public office in the United States and in at least 23 nations abroad.

And yet Trump is complaining about a few brits using their holiday to campaign in the States.

American conservatives tend to be even more organised in helping political campaigns overseas.

Not without pushback though. This is an old story, but representative.

Bannon's Europe plan: a look at the law in his 13 targeted countries
European electoral laws bar ex-Trump adviser operating in at least nine of his target states
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/bannon-europe-plan-law-13-targeted-countries-trump

kinabalu

Mexicanpete said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

So am I looking in from across the Atlantic, nonetheless the result will have a bearing on how we roll over here

Harris has been confident, witty, sure footed and positive. An absolute mirror image of her opponent. See his Al Smith speech.

It might not be enough.

Has the revelation that Trump likes Hitler moved the market at all?

Anabobazina

No.

If Harris gets 270, she wins.

It really is as simple as that.

stjohn

Scott_xP said:

stjohn said:

So the consensus here this morning is that if Harris wins the Electoral College by only a small margin and it gets to the SC then Trump will ultimately win the election. If this is an accurate assessment then it accounts for the betting. Two candidates are neck and neck in the piolls but one is clear odds on (though drifting a bit) to win.

That's when the wording of the bets becomes important

Who 'wins the election' might not be the same as 'next President'

This is taken from Betfair's rules.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.

Nigelb

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

SouthamObserver said:

stjohn said:

TimS said:

If the electoral college is anywhere close to even then Trump wins anyway, because he has the mob and the Supreme Court on his side.

Are you saying that if for instance the result is 271-267 to Harris with Harris winning WI, PA and GA and Trump winning the other 4 swing states, then Trump will win by overturning the GA result? He tried that last time and didn't succeed. Yes he has the SC on side but he's not the incumbent President. He would contest the result of course. But would he actually succeed?

If he can get a case to the Supreme Court, he almost certainly would. And the Supreme Court decides what cases it wants to take.

And the SC would say he had won GA when he hadn't?

Why not? He has four votes in the bag - Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett, and Alito is pretty much a shoo-in too.

I'm not saying it couldn't or won't happen. But if Harris wins the Electoral College Vote fair and square - no hanging chads etc - but only wins by a fine margin, 271-267, and the SC then gifts the election to Trump on a technicality, wouldn't there be major civil unrest and international reaction, the extent of which would ultimately stay the SC's hand?

Yes, yes, and err, no.

The SC clowns would need *something* to lot the opinion from. The only question it what tenuous bullshit would make the grade.

The likes of Thomas and Alito wouldn't even need that.
And I don't think any of the court's conservatives have any real scruples now (as the immunity case showed) - with the exception of Barrett. But Roberts or Kavanaugh would probably require at least a pretext, however threadbare.

Anabobazina

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

I believe some of the PB Trump Arse-Lickers consider Harris “the worst candidate ever” ?

Malmesbury

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

So am I looking in from across the Atlantic, nonetheless the result will have a bearing on how we roll over here

Harris has been confident, witty, sure footed and positive. An absolute mirror image of her opponent. See his Al Smith speech.

It might not be enough.

Has the revelation that Trump likes Hitler moved the market at all?

Why would it?

Consider all the other revelations about Trump and what they did to his polling numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTACH1eVIaA

turbotubbs

Scott_xP said:

stjohn said:

So the consensus here this morning is that if Harris wins the Electoral College by only a small margin and it gets to the SC then Trump will ultimately win the election. If this is an accurate assessment then it accounts for the betting. Two candidates are neck and neck in the piolls but one is clear odds on (though drifting a bit) to win.

That's when the wording of the bets becomes important

Who 'wins the election' might not be the same as 'next President'

Well quite. After all its widely held (by some at least) that Corbyn won in 2017, but he didn't get the keys to No 10...

FF43

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Pro_Rata said:

Nigelb said:

"Have you made up your mind on who you will vote for this election?"

Yes: 82%
No: 18%

HarrisX / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1512
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849211274187444340

18% ???

I suggest relatively few are "I might vote Harris, I might vote Trump" and more are "I've an idea who I favour but I'm not that enthused".

I suggest it shows a problem in the polling. In reality 2x as many as that 18% will not get around to voting. Turnout the last time around was 66.1%. So the election turns on who of those who expressed a preference can't be arsed. Isn't democracy wonderful?

that's one reason why this is a brutally difficult election to call. Harris is enthusing certain groups. Trump inspires an almost messianic fervour in others. Other races and the multiple abortion ballots may have a bearing as well.

One reason I think Harris should still be favourite is because Trump's base seems to be much less enthused than last time while hers has every reason to turn out to stop him.

But it's far too close to call.

It should be a shoo in based on the CVs of the two Presidential candidates, although even on here we have a very decent pro-Trump showing and a few posts each day explaining how poor a candidate Harris appears to be. I didn't have high hopes for Harris although during her candidacy, with caveats, she has proven a revelation.

Is America or even the PB right (who thankfully don't get to vote) ready for a Woman of colour President?

Has she? My impression is that she's been vacuous. Which is still, from this perspective, better than what Trump (or even Biden, in his dotage) offers. But compared to pretty much any candidate from either side before 2016 she's been depressingly lacking in reasons to want her as preaident. (From my perspective - and I accept I am seeing the election from 5000 miles away.)
America is ready for a non-white woman president - but perhaps not yet for a non-white woman who is there for reasons of her colour and her gender rather than her quality as a candidate.

I would say Harris is far from vacuous in this speech and she is giving this campaign her all. There is a limit to how much you can influence people against choosing bad outcomes when they want to go ahead anyway.

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1849137011875061970

Taz

SKS is under pressure from labour MP's over his stance on reparations.

With one even describing his attitude as colonial.

Given the pressure he is under will he now yield and open the door to payouts.

This should be a non issue but it is not going away.


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/pm-faces-pressure-from-labour-ranks-and-caribbean-nations-over-reparations/ar-AA1sFQKC?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=02f97b6ba5034e46be2c6fe554706d2c&ei=19

dixiedean

Suppose the SC does overturn results in a couple of States to get Trump over the line.
What is the possibility of civil resistance?
I don't think this has been really discussed.