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Senatorial Choices – politicalbetting.com
Senatorial Choices – politicalbetting.com
All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races.
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"Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.
It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg
Mr. Royale, excellent policy from the Commissar for Economic Excellence. Only by beating the kulak swine will they understand the power of the public sector!
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/
Lots of unpopular policy is being briefed - from all sides - some of it just unpopular (which is a given for this budget); some of it stupid as well.
Similarly.
Local transport funding at risk as Reeves considers big budget cuts
Exclusive: England mayors fear bus, tube and tram plans could be scrapped if Treasury reneges on agreed budgets
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/23/local-transport-funding-at-risk-as-reeves-considers-big-budget-cuts
Starmer is probably foolish enough to be embarrassed.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/22/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/biden-trump-lock-him-up-00184964
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
Still people ignore the facts.
(Or he wouldn't have taken millions from the Saudis in 2016.)
It's just a good messaging opportunity handed for free to Trump by idiots in Labour who think they might make a difference.
They will - but only on the downside.
Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.
Also there’s a weird subculture here. Young trendy Tokyoites - bohemian men in black. trilbies with black and white leopard skin coats and beautiful Japanese emo goth girls also in black - coming here to pray to the dead
A trendy new nationalism, responding to the Chinese threat? Is Mishima vindicated?
Which is why I don't see the problem as I can't see any non local door knocker convincing anyone to go out and vote or change their vote..
And I've thought of one positive from Trump winning. As an illegal immigrant to the US, even though his position was later regularised, Musk would have to go back to South Africa under Trump's policies.
And as he's now a US citizen, they could still tax him like crazy.
It certainly wouldn’t impress me if I were an American voter.
https://youtu.be/DiMXuEmqAHA?si=bkkKDLCRyM1pQ1PJ
The EU will be closer to Trump than us
Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.
The luck that Tester and Brown have had is to be repeatedly up for election in good years for the Dems - 2006, 2012, 2018.
That luck has run out now.
But it happens. It is common for even MPs to travel to foreign countries to campaign and I certainly met one American and several Europeans campaigning here.
As @Nigelb points out there are minimal gains and the potential for Trump to score a propaganda gain (he doesn't care about the legality)
However people are free to do it and do.
This is where it’s easier if you’re a Lib Dem like ACH. You can knock on the door and announce “hi, I’m a Liberal Democrat” and the Americans will know what you mean.
That being said, that could be considered an even better argument for not taxing pension contributions. In a field of stiff competition, that was surely Gordon Brown's worst mistake even if he managed to deflect much of the blame.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/6swvQDGHvp436GoQ9
I think Sherrod Brown holds Ohio though.
Yes, there is the addiction to slow justice - must generate several hundred Ks of documents to make lawyers feel special.
But it comes down, in the end, to simple evidence. Trump tried to orchestrate the overthrow of the counting of EC votes for president. We have Pence stating it. And we have The Second Founder Of America, Dan "Potato" Quayle - who told him to do the right thing.
10 minutes of evidence, and he would have been done.
Instead they managed to prosecute him for things that, started with the personal and small and built up. This created a kind of immunisation giants the *effects* of guilty verdicts.
The Process State has it's downsides, eh?
It's outrageous.
If the tax was pushed through then either staff budgets would increase (funded by the taxpayer) or hiring would be reduced.
The private sector response of limiting wage increases would be more difficult because of the union power and willingness to strike
So it’s a terrible signal and it distorts the labour market long term. However from a fiscal reporting perspective it avoids a gross up (costs and revenues both going up in tandem) and from a cash perspective it’s a wash
A man was shot dead within a second of coming to the back door of his home during a police raid five years ago, a court has heard.
Sean Fitzgerald, aged 31, was shot in the chest at point blank range in Coventry on 4 January 2019.
The counter terrorism specialist firearms officer, referred to in court as “Officer K”, reported seeing Mr Fitzgerald carrying something in his hand, but it turned out to be a mobile phone.
Hadn't even heard about this one from my family in Coventry.
Compare to the Kaba story.
I recall after the EU referendum in 2016 some random on here was screeching about its imminent collapse and I offered a bet that no other country would leave within the next 10 years. Of course they scuttled off.
But I am I'm wondering whether there is a pattern - the government decides it wants to do something in ignorance and then is told of consequences which were not understood. An example might be tax free cash on pensions - I'm fearful that they may specifically target DC schemes only, thus protecting public sector workers who are already mightily favoured.
Will try and go tomorrow
Tonight I’m going to Shinjuku and the peculiar new red light district that has arisen - Japanese girls who face bankruptcy because they fell for gigolos, so they are now street walkers
Apparently
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15020981
Japan is so superbly weird
A really daring Chancellor would be talking of ripping up the whole tax system and starting again to see if that would make a difference.
But she seems innately cautious.
This is very puzzling in a chess champion. The very best players tend to be the ones who can outthink the opponent by being bold.
She may of course have some amazing plan that she's concealing to reveal and totally wrong foot us all but (a) the things she's trailing make unlikely and (b) as there is no Opposition worth the name and the rest of us will have to pay tax whether we like it or not it would seem a bit pointless to do that.
If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
Because the party which does so is unlikely to be popular two years afterwards.
There really is an enormous amount of far-right material on Twitter now. A thread I saw this morning on Trump's Hitler comments has about 60.Nazi-era propaganda posters and slogans loaded on it, with no moderation. Some of yesterday's threads about Chris Kaba, from the right, have antisemitic cartoons on them. Still there today.
(Amusing anecdote. I went to the Fortress of Sagres on Monday, which is officially cashless. Unfortunately for all involved, on that day it was cash only as the card machine was broken.
Which meant I, as the man with two euros in my pocket, had a lovely walk round without too many others...)
Essentially, the Democrats are hoping that their better information from their superior ground operation will allow them to micro target potential voters and get them out to vote. They seem a lot less optimistic about switching never Trumpers or Haley supporters than many on here.
Personally, I think that married women are going to be the key demographic. Trump won married women in 2020 51-47. If Dobbs and the idea of a first female President switches that group (who have a higher than average propensity to vote) to Harris it may well make the difference.
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/markets-insights/personal-finance/personal-finance/the-unintended-consequences-of-fiddling-around-with-taxes/
On Brown's raid: "Worse still, the reduced incentive for UK pension funds to invest in British companies means that they and other institutional investors now own just 4% of UK-quoted shares compared with half of them in 1997."
It was lawfared every step of the way, with Trump spending tens of millions to slow discovery - which in some cases took 18months. I don't think it realistic to say "it should have been dealt with in 2021".
Could Biden have appointed a more thrusting AG than Garland ? Probably.
4chan being the obvious example. 2007 4chan was a bunch of nerds posting memes and wearing guy fawkes masks trolling scientology. Because of the forum's unmoderated nature, more and more Nazis started moving in as they were banned from other places. More Nazi content gets posted, causing non-Nazi people to leave. Eventually it's just an echo chamber of anti-semitic and other far right bullshit.
By using the planetary protection standards that NASA uses, they think they can permanently block any landing. It is, essentially, impossible to sterilise large space craft to the standard and no system of life-support has been created, ever, that doesn't leak into the environment.
The “For you” tab is supposed to show content I assume it thinks I would like. But it’s just far right material or Elon Tweets. I have said so many times I am not interested in this stuff but it keeps showing it to me.
I just use the “Following” tab which avoids this but it’s strange.
Oh, sorry, did you mean The West Wing?
I would disagree on Rosen in NV though. This from Ralston overnight - the Republicans are smashing it in Nevada and the Clark County firewall has collapsed:
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1848937979546681502
On these counts, I think Rosen is also gone.