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Senatorial Choices – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited October 23 in General
imageSenatorial Choices – politicalbetting.com

All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    First like Trump?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, excellent policy from the Commissar for Economic Excellence. Only by beating the kulak swine will they understand the power of the public sector!
  • I mentioned in other posts Trump may pick a fight with Starmer. Starmer will find it very hard to deal with Trump as he plays it by the book and that will not work. For the UK Harris is definitely a better bet. Stability and diplomacy is what we need from a president. Not another four years of chaos and confusion. Let's see wait for the final result and I hope we get Harris.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    I can’t see much to disagree with, here. It’s not a good Senate cycle, for Democrats.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    That would be quite pernicious if true. I wonder how they would try and justify it…
  • I mentioned in other posts Trump may pick a fight with Starmer. Starmer will find it very hard to deal with Trump as he plays it by the book and that will not work. For the UK Harris is definitely a better bet. Stability and diplomacy is what we need from a president. Not another four years of chaos and confusion. Let's see wait for the final result and I hope we get Harris.

    If Trump acts like a dick towards Starmer/The UK then closer alignment with the EU is inevitable.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Eagles, Labour/Starmer will want to be closer to the EU anyway. But a Trump victory does increase the chances that will be more substantial and swifter.
  • Mr. Eagles, Labour/Starmer will want to be closer to the EU anyway. But a Trump victory does increase the chances that will be more substantial and swifter.

    Particularly on defence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited October 23

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Is that just a rumour, or is it likely to happen ?

    Lots of unpopular policy is being briefed - from all sides - some of it just unpopular (which is a given for this budget); some of it stupid as well.

    Similarly.

    Local transport funding at risk as Reeves considers big budget cuts
    Exclusive: England mayors fear bus, tube and tram plans could be scrapped if Treasury reneges on agreed budgets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/23/local-transport-funding-at-risk-as-reeves-considers-big-budget-cuts
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    I mentioned in other posts Trump may pick a fight with Starmer. Starmer will find it very hard to deal with Trump as he plays it by the book and that will not work. For the UK Harris is definitely a better bet. Stability and diplomacy is what we need from a president. Not another four years of chaos and confusion. Let's see wait for the final result and I hope we get Harris.

    If Trump acts like a dick towards Starmer/The UK then closer alignment with the EU is inevitable.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/
    The Trump camp is probably quite grateful to Labour for giving it the opportunity to peddle the bullshit (but effective bullshit) story about 'election interference'.

    Starmer is probably foolish enough to be embarrassed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    When you’re absolutely dying to get a letter from the GOP lawyers but no one gives a feck.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Beatings will continue until morale improves
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Jonathan said:

    Trump is going to be really pissed when he finds out Farage is a UK politician.

    That’s OK though, because he’s on the right side. Like Truss.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    I’m at the Yasukina Shinto shrine to Japan’s war dead, to honour all the good soldiers who did their best at Nanjing, and to say a prayer for rhe misunderstood medics of Unit 731

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Jonathan said:

    Trump is going to be really pissed when he finds out Farage is a UK politician.

    I thought the same. To make it worse Farage correctly files the fact that he had his flights and accommodation paid for in his declaration of money received from outside interests so according to Trump slam dunk illegal.

    Still people ignore the facts.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
  • I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    Brilliantly it actually looks seriously Fash

    Also there’s a weird subculture here. Young trendy Tokyoites - bohemian men in black. trilbies with black and white leopard skin coats and beautiful Japanese emo goth girls also in black - coming here to pray to the dead

    A trendy new nationalism, responding to the Chinese threat? Is Mishima vindicated?
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433
    edited October 23

    When you’re absolutely dying to get a letter from the GOP lawyers but no one gives a feck.


    Very good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Trump is going to be really pissed when he finds out Farage is a UK politician.

    That’s OK though, because he’s on the right side. Like Truss.
    The far right side, shurely?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    Yes, these cases should have been dealt with in 2021 so that there was no question of Trump standing again. It seemed to be the case that it took until 2023 for them to get going despite overwhelming evidence on both Jan 6th and the secret documents case allowing Trump to play for time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited October 23

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening, he's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    Shows how thick he is - because Trump doesn't understand anything beyond wining / losing and the loser has to be seen to have lost...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    While I agree with your comments on Trump's crimes, it is hardly Biden's fault that several judges in the USA including one in Florida and at least three on the Supreme Court are blatantly corrupt.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.

    It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.

    What are they going to achieve - if you are knocking on doors exactly how many people are you going to talk to and how many of those are not going to ask about your accent rather than your views...

    Which is why I don't see the problem as I can't see any non local door knocker convincing anyone to go out and vote or change their vote..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 23
    eek said:

    I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.

    It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.

    What are they going to achieve - if you are knocking on doors exactly how many people are you going to talk to and how many of those are not going to ask about your accent rather than your views...

    Which is why I don't see the problem as I can't see any non local door knocker convincing anyone to go out and vote or change their vote..
    Elon Musk seems to be having a good go...

    And I've thought of one positive from Trump winning. As an illegal immigrant to the US, even though his position was later regularised, Musk would have to go back to South Africa under Trump's policies.

    And as he's now a US citizen, they could still tax him like crazy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    While I agree with your comments on Trump's crimes, it is hardly Biden's fault that several judges in the USA including one in Florida and at least three on the Supreme Court are blatantly corrupt.
    Republicans in the senate let him off the hook because they worried about midterms. That was the mistake
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.

    It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.

    Reminds me of the infamous Guardian letter writing campaign in Ohio in 2004…

    It certainly wouldn’t impress me if I were an American voter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    eek said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening, he's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    Shows how thick he is - because Trump doesn't understand anything beyond wining / losing and the loser has to be seen to have lost...
    He was getting very angry with Victoria who was calling him out for all manner of contradictions over his withdrawal from the ECHR plan, and his black eye liner made him look even more sinister than normal.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798

    I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.

    It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.

    Reminds me of the infamous Guardian letter writing campaign in Ohio in 2004…

    It certainly wouldn’t impress me if I were an American voter.
    Ripping the pish is the best medicine.

    https://youtu.be/DiMXuEmqAHA?si=bkkKDLCRyM1pQ1PJ

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    While I agree with your comments on Trump's crimes, it is hardly Biden's fault that several judges in the USA including one in Florida and at least three on the Supreme Court are blatantly corrupt.
    If anyone else had attempted a coup d' etat on 6th January, by dawn on the 21st they would be wearing an orange jump suit over their soiled diapers in their cell at Terra Haute.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Leon said:

    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us

    I can think of no single act more likely to lead to <100 Labour MPs at the next election than for them to begin seriously talking about rejoining the EU.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,743
    Great insight. I wasn`t going to bet on it as I didn`t know much about this race but I might have a wager at Republicans 53 seats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Leon said:

    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us

    Is that irony or did you have a pint of sake with your rice and miso soup breakfast?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    The problem Tester and Brown have is that they've been continual party line voters.

    The luck that Tester and Brown have had is to be repeatedly up for election in good years for the Dems - 2006, 2012, 2018.

    That luck has run out now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us

    Is that irony or did you have a pint of sake with your rice and miso soup breakfast?
    Have you missed the rightwards shift in European politics? Its a definite THING
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    The noom is strong here. Dark, but strong
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's not a terribly favourable map on 2026 either. The Dems will be defending Colorado and Georgia and although there are possible pickups in Maine, Kentucky and North Carolina none except Maine could be regarded as anything other than a long shot.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    While I agree with your comments on Trump's crimes, it is hardly Biden's fault that several judges in the USA including one in Florida and at least three on the Supreme Court are blatantly corrupt.
    If anyone else had attempted a coup d' etat on 6th January, by dawn on the 21st they would be wearing an orange jump suit over their soiled diapers in their cell at Terra Haute.
    That is true, but for that we blame Cannon and the Four Horsemen, not Biden.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    The problem Tester and Brown have is that they've been continual party line voters.

    The luck that Tester and Brown have had is to be repeatedly up for election in good years for the Dems - 2006, 2012, 2018.

    That luck has run out now.

    Brown is marginally up in the polling (except with Rasmussen, natch) and seems likely to hold on to me. But Tester is toast.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.

    It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.

    I agree on both counts and I wouldn't do it.

    But it happens. It is common for even MPs to travel to foreign countries to campaign and I certainly met one American and several Europeans campaigning here.

    As @Nigelb points out there are minimal gains and the potential for Trump to score a propaganda gain (he doesn't care about the legality)

    However people are free to do it and do.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    eek said:

    I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.

    It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.

    What are they going to achieve - if you are knocking on doors exactly how many people are you going to talk to and how many of those are not going to ask about your accent rather than your views...

    Which is why I don't see the problem as I can't see any non local door knocker convincing anyone to go out and vote or change their vote..
    You could say the same of most door knocking. It’s doing your bit, helping out your political friends, and I daresay good fun.

    This is where it’s easier if you’re a Lib Dem like ACH. You can knock on the door and announce “hi, I’m a Liberal Democrat” and the Americans will know what you mean.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Who gives a fuck? I thought you would support measures that would save the public sector money - what is the point of the Government levying taxes on itself?
    Public sector pensions are also of course different in that they are paid from income (ie tax) not from an accrued pension pot.

    That being said, that could be considered an even better argument for not taxing pension contributions. In a field of stiff competition, that was surely Gordon Brown's worst mistake even if he managed to deflect much of the blame.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us

    Is that irony or did you have a pint of sake with your rice and miso soup breakfast?
    Have you missed the rightwards shift in European politics? Its a definite THING
    But none of them ( except perhaps Putin's little helper Orban) not even Le Pen are now considering leaving the EU having witnessed the Brexit train wreck.
  • Leon, this would appeal to your interests:

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/6swvQDGHvp436GoQ9
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Thanks @rcs1000 - useful round-up.

    I think Sherrod Brown holds Ohio though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited October 23
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    While I agree with your comments on Trump's crimes, it is hardly Biden's fault that several judges in the USA including one in Florida and at least three on the Supreme Court are blatantly corrupt.
    There was no particular reason that prosecuting him for actual crimes on Jan 6th couldn't have been done in the nearly 4 years that have passed.

    Yes, there is the addiction to slow justice - must generate several hundred Ks of documents to make lawyers feel special.

    But it comes down, in the end, to simple evidence. Trump tried to orchestrate the overthrow of the counting of EC votes for president. We have Pence stating it. And we have The Second Founder Of America, Dan "Potato" Quayle - who told him to do the right thing.

    10 minutes of evidence, and he would have been done.

    Instead they managed to prosecute him for things that, started with the personal and small and built up. This created a kind of immunisation giants the *effects* of guilty verdicts.

    The Process State has it's downsides, eh?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    That would be quite pernicious if true. I wonder how they would try and justify it…
    Isn’t it just right pocket / left pocket though?

    If the tax was pushed through then either staff budgets would increase (funded by the taxpayer) or hiring would be reduced.

    The private sector response of limiting wage increases would be more difficult because of the union power and willingness to strike

    So it’s a terrible signal and it distorts the labour market long term. However from a fiscal reporting perspective it avoids a gross up (costs and revenues both going up in tandem) and from a cash perspective it’s a wash

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    A hard time for her first two years. I think the Democrats will take the Senate back in 2026.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Why do I get the creeping feeling this is going to be another day of hypocritical pearl clutching from the PB Trump Arse-Lickers?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Who gives a fuck? I thought you would support measures that would save the public sector money - what is the point of the Government levying taxes on itself?
    I give a fuck. I'm entirely unimpressed by the government putting all tax rises on private sector workers and pensions, whilst shielding the impact for those who work for the State.

    It's outrageous.
    Why? It would otherwise be taxing itself. Which costs money in pointless admin.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c250j42r89zo

    A man was shot dead within a second of coming to the back door of his home during a police raid five years ago, a court has heard.

    Sean Fitzgerald, aged 31, was shot in the chest at point blank range in Coventry on 4 January 2019.

    The counter terrorism specialist firearms officer, referred to in court as “Officer K”, reported seeing Mr Fitzgerald carrying something in his hand, but it turned out to be a mobile phone.


    Hadn't even heard about this one from my family in Coventry.

    Compare to the Kaba story.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited October 23

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us

    Is that irony or did you have a pint of sake with your rice and miso soup breakfast?
    Have you missed the rightwards shift in European politics? Its a definite THING
    But none of them ( except perhaps Putin's little helper Orban) not even Le Pen are now considering leaving the EU having witnessed the Brexit train wreck.
    That’s the weird thing about the new EU right, none of them seem that interested in leaving the EU. Even Orban who’s been in power since 2010 has done feck all about getting out.

    I recall after the EU referendum in 2016 some random on here was screeching about its imminent collapse and I offered a bet that no other country would leave within the next 10 years. Of course they scuttled off.
  • Why do I get the creeping feeling this is going to be another day of hypocritical pearl clutching from the PB Trump Arse-Lickers?

    I bet they would not go over and campaign for him. Just support him on here.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Who gives a fuck? I thought you would support measures that would save the public sector money - what is the point of the Government levying taxes on itself?
    I give a fuck. I'm entirely unimpressed by the government putting all tax rises on private sector workers and pensions, whilst shielding the impact for those who work for the State.

    It's outrageous.
    The article may be incorrect, of course.

    But I am I'm wondering whether there is a pattern - the government decides it wants to do something in ignorance and then is told of consequences which were not understood. An example might be tax free cash on pensions - I'm fearful that they may specifically target DC schemes only, thus protecting public sector workers who are already mightily favoured.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    Its possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    edited October 23
    It does look near certain the GOP will regain control of the Senate, they only need to regain control of normally solid GOP seats in Montana and West Virginia to do so. However several races in swing states do have the Democrats ahead so it could be a much narrower margin overall
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    edited October 23

    Leon, this would appeal to your interests:

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/6swvQDGHvp436GoQ9

    Oooh ta. That looks perfect for my purposes

    Will try and go tomorrow

    Tonight I’m going to Shinjuku and the peculiar new red light district that has arisen - Japanese girls who face bankruptcy because they fell for gigolos, so they are now street walkers

    Apparently

    https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15020981

    Japan is so superbly weird
  • TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    78 now. Will he make 90?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Who gives a fuck? I thought you would support measures that would save the public sector money - what is the point of the Government levying taxes on itself?
    I give a fuck. I'm entirely unimpressed by the government putting all tax rises on private sector workers and pensions, whilst shielding the impact for those who work for the State.

    It's outrageous.
    More pertinently, it's stupid. The last thing any sane chancellor would be doing is encouraging employers to bully their employees out of making pension contributions.

    A really daring Chancellor would be talking of ripping up the whole tax system and starting again to see if that would make a difference.

    But she seems innately cautious.

    This is very puzzling in a chess champion. The very best players tend to be the ones who can outthink the opponent by being bold.

    She may of course have some amazing plan that she's concealing to reveal and totally wrong foot us all but (a) the things she's trailing make unlikely and (b) as there is no Opposition worth the name and the rest of us will have to pay tax whether we like it or not it would seem a bit pointless to do that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Why do I get the creeping feeling this is going to be another day of hypocritical pearl clutching from the PB Trump Arse-Lickers?

    Just as long as we can have a break from you licking Starmer's backside... ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
    Given her age and health, it might be taken out of her hands.

    If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
    He can explore Mars but the conditions aren't there for colonisation
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's not a terribly favourable map on 2026 either. The Dems will be defending Colorado and Georgia and although there are possible pickups in Maine, Kentucky and North Carolina none except Maine could be regarded as anything other than a long shot.
    The 2026 senate and House elections will depend on who wins the 2024 Presidential.

    Because the party which does so is unlikely to be popular two years afterwards.
  • Morning, PB.

    There really is an enormous amount of far-right material on Twitter now. A thread I saw this morning on Trump's Hitler comments has about 60.Nazi-era propaganda posters and slogans loaded on it, with no moderation. Some of yesterday's threads about Chris Kaba, from the right, have antisemitic cartoons on them. Still there today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Why do I get the creeping feeling this is going to be another day of hypocritical pearl clutching from the PB Trump Arse-Lickers?

    Just as long as we can have a break from you licking Starmer's backside... ;)
    If you like, I could distract him by reporting on the very large number of places in the Algarve that are cash only?

    (Amusing anecdote. I went to the Fortress of Sagres on Monday, which is officially cashless. Unfortunately for all involved, on that day it was cash only as the card machine was broken.

    Which meant I, as the man with two euros in my pocket, had a lovely walk round without too many others...)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Why do I get the creeping feeling this is going to be another day of hypocritical pearl clutching from the PB Trump Arse-Lickers?

    Just as long as we can have a break from you licking Starmer's backside... ;)
    Anything other than stating that the Labour government under Starmer is brilliant, clever, successful and playing 8D chess, is alt-right extremism and a non-story.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    78 now. Will he make 90?
    The way things are going I don’t knooooooow
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    This is a summary of how Harris's advisors explained to CNN how they think that they are going to win: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/22/2278658/-Here-s-how-top-Harris-advisers-plan-to-win-this-thing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    Essentially, the Democrats are hoping that their better information from their superior ground operation will allow them to micro target potential voters and get them out to vote. They seem a lot less optimistic about switching never Trumpers or Haley supporters than many on here.

    Personally, I think that married women are going to be the key demographic. Trump won married women in 2020 51-47. If Dobbs and the idea of a first female President switches that group (who have a higher than average propensity to vote) to Harris it may well make the difference.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 23

    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    78 now. Will he make 90?
    Years of age, or children with various ladies?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    Leon said:

    Yes of course we’re going to rejoin the EU under Starmer as the EU swings to the hard right under Meloni and Wilders and Le Pen and Orban and the Austrian Nazis and the Sweden Democrats and the AfD

    The EU will be closer to Trump than us

    Parts, Germany will probably be an SPD and CDU grand coalition again. France Barnier may fancy his chances now Macron cannot run again and he is PM
  • Leon said:

    Leon, this would appeal to your interests:

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/6swvQDGHvp436GoQ9

    Oooh ta. That looks perfect for my purposes

    Will try and go tomorrow

    Tonight I’m going to Shinjuku and the peculiar new red light district that has arisen - Japanese girls who face bankruptcy because they fell for gigolos, so they are now street walkers

    Apparently

    https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15020981

    Japan is so superbly weird
    I went with my better half. All the way round I was unsure whether the whole thing was an elaborate front for a more "hands on" experience. Particularly when we were sat at the bar enjoying our "free" drink and an insanely beautiful member of staff brought down from a shelf some books of very explicit Japanese art to show us. Maybe it was, maybe I just didn't give back the right signals ! Anyway, we both left unmolested.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    ydoethur said:

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    Who gives a fuck? I thought you would support measures that would save the public sector money - what is the point of the Government levying taxes on itself?
    Public sector pensions are also of course different in that they are paid from income (ie tax) not from an accrued pension pot.

    That being said, that could be considered an even better argument for not taxing pension contributions. In a field of stiff competition, that was surely Gordon Brown's worst mistake even if he managed to deflect much of the blame.
    Good article:

    https://www.fidelity.co.uk/markets-insights/personal-finance/personal-finance/the-unintended-consequences-of-fiddling-around-with-taxes/

    On Brown's raid: "Worse still, the reduced incentive for UK pension funds to invest in British companies means that they and other institutional investors now own just 4% of UK-quoted shares compared with half of them in 1997."
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    When you’re absolutely dying to get a letter from the GOP lawyers but no one gives a feck.


    Very good.
    Just me but if an American flew over to SW Wilts and knocked on my door and told me who to vote for, I'd not be impressed. Who do these idiots think they are?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
    Given her age and health, it might be taken out of her hands.

    If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
    This isn’t the West Wing. And even then it didn’t work because of a principled lame duck democratic senator
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:
    Biden's greatest dereliction of duty was allowing Trump to get away with sedition and treason. In what world does launching a coup d' etat and storing classified documents in one's bathroom ( particularly when one has lavatorial habits like Trump) not justify a custodial ( or capital) sentence?
    Yes, these cases should have been dealt with in 2021 so that there was no question of Trump standing again. It seemed to be the case that it took until 2023 for them to get going despite overwhelming evidence on both Jan 6th and the secret documents case allowing Trump to play for time.
    They started in 2021.
    It was lawfared every step of the way, with Trump spending tens of millions to slow discovery - which in some cases took 18months. I don't think it realistic to say "it should have been dealt with in 2021".

    Could Biden have appointed a more thrusting AG than Garland ? Probably.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    Labour single out the public sector for special treatment again:

    "Public-sector workers will be shielded from Rachel Reeves’s plans to mount a tax raid on employers’ pension contributions, while those in the private sector face lower wages and less money in retirement.

    It would cost the government an estimated £5 billion, which means that the rise will fall entirely on businesses and, ultimately, private-sector workers. Experts said that employees would have less generous pensions and companies could also absorb costs by reducing future pay rises."



    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-to-protect-public-sector-workers-from-tax-raid-0n25hxkgg

    The last thing we need if we want to help people support themselves in retirement
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    Morning, PB.

    There really is an enormous amount of far-right material on Twitter now. A thread I saw this morning on Trump's Hitler comments has about 60.Nazi-era propaganda posters and slogans loaded on it, with no moderation. Some of yesterday's threads about Chris Kaba, from the right, have antisemitic cartoons on them. Still there today.

    It's somewhat parallel to the enshittification cycle, but with Nazis.

    4chan being the obvious example. 2007 4chan was a bunch of nerds posting memes and wearing guy fawkes masks trolling scientology. Because of the forum's unmoderated nature, more and more Nazis started moving in as they were banned from other places. More Nazi content gets posted, causing non-Nazi people to leave. Eventually it's just an echo chamber of anti-semitic and other far right bullshit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
    He can explore Mars but the conditions aren't there for colonisation
    The biggest issue in landing on Mars is the group of scientists who are absolutely opposed to human exploration of Mars.

    By using the planetary protection standards that NASA uses, they think they can permanently block any landing. It is, essentially, impossible to sterilise large space craft to the standard and no system of life-support has been created, ever, that doesn't leak into the environment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
    Given her age and health, it might be taken out of her hands.

    If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
    Not possible.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    78 now. Will he make 90?
    Years of age, or children with various ladies?
    26 sets of triplets from one lady would be exhausting!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
    Given her age and health, it might be taken out of her hands.

    If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
    This isn’t the West Wing. And even then it didn’t work because of a principled lame duck democratic senator
    I've never actually watched the West Wing, but I did see Trump's shenanigans over Amy Coney Barrett and McConnell's over Merrick Garland.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
    The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
    Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
    I'd take the bet that they won't.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Morning, PB.

    There really is an enormous amount of far-right material on Twitter now. A thread I saw this morning on Trump's Hitler comments has about 60.Nazi-era propaganda posters and slogans loaded on it, with no moderation. Some of yesterday's threads about Chris Kaba, from the right, have antisemitic cartoons on them. Still there today.

    It's somewhat parallel to the enshittification cycle, but with Nazis.

    4chan being the obvious example. 2007 4chan was a bunch of nerds posting memes and wearing guy fawkes masks trolling scientology. Because of the forum's unmoderated nature, more and more Nazis started moving in as they were banned from other places. More Nazi content gets posted, causing non-Nazi people to leave. Eventually it's just an echo chamber of anti-semitic and other far right bullshit.
    They have completely broken the algorithm on Twitter, or maybe it is by design.

    The “For you” tab is supposed to show content I assume it thinks I would like. But it’s just far right material or Elon Tweets. I have said so many times I am not interested in this stuff but it keeps showing it to me.

    I just use the “Following” tab which avoids this but it’s strange.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
    Given her age and health, it might be taken out of her hands.

    If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
    This isn’t the West Wing. And even then it didn’t work because of a principled lame duck democratic senator
    I've never actually watched the West Wing, but I did see Trump's shenanigans over Amy Coney Barrett and McConnell's over Merrick Garland.
    It’s well written
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    edited October 23

    I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.

    Trump would impose big tariffs on China and the EU and to some degree the UK. Starmer and Davey would probably prefer to shield from that by rejoining the EEA and or Customs Union. Farage and Jenrick and Badenoch would prefer a trade deal with a Trump led USA
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's not a terribly favourable map on 2026 either. The Dems will be defending Colorado and Georgia and although there are possible pickups in Maine, Kentucky and North Carolina none except Maine could be regarded as anything other than a long shot.
    The 2026 senate and House elections will depend on who wins the 2024 Presidential.

    Because the party which does so is unlikely to be popular two years afterwards.
    Lame duck president time as House and Senate may flip.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd be a bit more optimistic for the Democrats than Robert is but I agree that WV is gone and Tester is toast and that is enough. I also agree that the prospects of Democratic pick ups are very poor even if Cruz is being run a lot closer than was thought likely. With Osborn not even counting as a Democrat laying them for control of the Senate seems a very safe bet.

    Incidentally, with 3 SC Justices likely to be selected by the next President it would also mean that Harris may have a very hard time getting her nominations through, even if she wins.

    It's possible that Thomas and Alito might step down with a GOP president and senate but Sotomayer certainly will not.
    Given her age and health, it might be taken out of her hands.

    If Trump wins, the smart move would be for her to resign at once and for Biden to rush through a nominee before the new Senate convenes and blocks it.
    This isn’t the West Wing. And even then it didn’t work because of a principled lame duck democratic senator
    I've never actually watched the West Wing, but I did see Trump's shenanigans over Amy Coney Barrett and McConnell's over Merrick Garland.
    It’s well written
    Really? It looked more like a pair of dimwitted grifters hypocritically flailing about for partisan advantage.

    Oh, sorry, did you mean The West Wing?
  • Thanks Robert, I'd agree with the pick-up analysis. Certainly with Brown, it has the feeling more and more it will be a miracle if he hangs on and the mood music seems to have changed. Of the 3 of MI, WI and PA, I would probably say Hovde is the most likely to win and there is a question whether WI polling will be as especially dire as it was in 2020 which (if it is) probably means he is in the lead by a few percentage points.

    I would disagree on Rosen in NV though. This from Ralston overnight - the Republicans are smashing it in Nevada and the Clark County firewall has collapsed:

    https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1848937979546681502

    On these counts, I think Rosen is also gone.
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