Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
His record is not irrelevant if the police team involved knew he had a record of being armed and dangerous then how do you think their mindset might just be a tad different when approaching the vehicle?
Indeed, that's one element in the assessment of risk. He was also attempting to use his car as a battering-ram, a car is a lethal weapon.
I think that's the thing here - if the jury had found the police man guilty and then all the information the police officer had been told had come out we would now have people claiming it was a miscarriage of justice.
The more you hear about the case the more you question what on earth were people thinking allowing this to go to court. It should have been a public inquiry where the facts are - dangerous person does something dangerous resulting in policeman using weapon to protect himself.
I suspect most people would have done exactly what the police team did...
Will we still get an inquest, now the criminal charges are dismissed? One would think that would return 'lawful killing' if so, on the apparent facts.
For a guy who has spent his entire life making “I am very rich” the keystone of his personal brand, there is something quite poignant about watching Donald Trump get financially cucked by Elon Musk on stage every night. Musk is much younger, much richer, and has had a much more successful series of hair transplants. But needs must, it seems.
As you might be aware, Musk has recently decided to update the tired dystopian fiction trope in which impoverished citizens are forced to compete in deadly gameshows where the winner gets a life-changingly glittering prize, and the losers are killed for sport. In Elon’s rebooted version, the richest man in the world is giving struggling voters the chance to win a million dollars if they sign a “petition” in favour of free speech and the right to bear arms.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I just can't imagine any self-respecting Pennsylvanian having any emotion other than annoyance that Alex Cole Hamilton is knocking on their door. If an American visitor knocked on my door telling me to vote for someone because they knew much more about it than me, I'd have some choice words.
+1 - experts working in the background coming up with ideas on how to do things based on what works elsewhere makes sense.
I can't see how a Foreigner knocking on doors helps anyone....
Manchester Arena attack survivors win harassment case against conspiracy theorist Richard Hall who claims it was hoax
Two survivors of the Manchester Arena attack have won their harassment case against a conspiracy theorist who claims the bombing was "staged".
Former television producer Richard Hall has said he believes the attack at an Ariana Grande concert in 2017 was a hoax, and that no one was "genuinely injured".
Martin Hibbert and his daughter Eve, who were both severely injured in the explosion, brought legal proceedings against Mr Hall for harassment and data protection, with a civil trial taking place in July.
High Court judge Mrs Justice Steyn ruling today that "the claimants have succeeded on their harassment claim", adding that she would not decide the data protection claim at this stage.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I just can't imagine any self-respecting Pennsylvanian having any emotion other than annoyance that Alex Cole Hamilton is knocking on their door. If an American visitor knocked on my door telling me to vote for someone because they knew much more about it than me, I'd have some choice words.
+1 - experts working in the background coming up with ideas on how to do things based on what works elsewhere makes sense.
I can't see how a Foreigner knocking on doors helps anyone....
Perhaps he's planning to adopt a Hans Gruber style American accent and be known as Chuck for the duration.
Off-topic... There was criticism around some COVID-19 messaging during the crisis phase of the pandemic, with some decrying fear-based adverts from the Government (e.g., multiple Telegraph articles). Well, they didn't scare the public:
Unarmed ex soldier Sean Fitzgerald shot dead whilst holding a mobile on a cannabis raid. Where are the vigils for him ? Where is the outrage in the Coventry or military community ?
It sounds like on the surface he was in the forces and decided to grow some pot in his house perhaps after MH/job/falling in with the wrong crowd difficulties. But I hadn't even heard of this till I googled police shootings and found it via wiki today.
A man was shot dead within a second of coming to the back door of his home during a police raid five years ago, a court has heard.
Sean Fitzgerald, aged 31, was shot in the chest at point blank range in Coventry on 4 January 2019.
The counter terrorism specialist firearms officer, referred to in court as “Officer K”, reported seeing Mr Fitzgerald carrying something in his hand, but it turned out to be a mobile phone.
Hadn't even heard about this one from my family in Coventry.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's pretty much me. You have nice friends.
Not enjoying the NV early data analysis though.
Just one big finger cross atm really.
Will you be OK if Trump wins?
Genuine question. We may have our differences over almost everything but I don’t like to see a fellow PBer suffer, even if they are insufferable!
You are SO invested in Trump losing - I worry for your mental state if he wins
Off-topic... There was criticism around some COVID-19 messaging during the crisis phase of the pandemic, with some decrying fear-based adverts from the Government (e.g., multiple Telegraph articles). Well, they didn't scare the public:
We saw that at the time. The public were often out of step with the flow. The government would say another wave is coming, or cases are rising fast, please take care and reduce contact, and the response was one more big night out until we going into lockdown or Tier 3.5 or whatever. Or cases have risen fast in x location, so people went to y location in a lower tier.
The public reacted when their WhatsApp groups were filled with people saying they had got COVID, which was too late, because if all your mates have it and you went on a big'un with them, probably you got it too.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I just can't imagine any self-respecting Pennsylvanian having any emotion other than annoyance that Alex Cole Hamilton is knocking on their door. If an American visitor knocked on my door telling me to vote for someone because they knew much more about it than me, I'd have some choice words.
+1 - experts working in the background coming up with ideas on how to do things based on what works elsewhere makes sense.
I can't see how a Foreigner knocking on doors helps anyone....
I can only speak to myself, but I’d find it quite charming if, say, a member of the German greens came knocking on my door to canvas for the local Green Party candidate. I’d probably give them what for on nuclear energy though.
And if someone with a MAGA hat turned up to canvas for Reform, well it would be interesting too.
Unarmed ex soldier Sean Fitzgerald shot dead whilst holding a mobile on a cannabis raid. Where are the vigils for him ? Where is the outrage in the Coventry or military community ?
It sounds like on the surface he was in the forces and decided to grow some pot in his house perhaps after MH/job/falling in with the wrong crowd difficulties. But I hadn't even heard of this till I googled police shootings and found it via wiki today.
Where's the fuss over this ??
I've not read the story but judging from the URL, the publicity for that case is in the Daily Mail.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
He was not unarmed. He was armed with a car. Furthermore, the reason armed police had been deployed is that the car had been involved in a firearms incident the day before.
They did not know who was driving. They did not know if they were armed or not.
Millions of armed folk roaming the streets every day! Scary stuff..
In a way it is.
"In reported road collisions in Great Britain in 2023 there were an estimated:
1,645 fatalities, a decline of 4% compared to 2022 29,643 killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties, little change compared to 2022 132,063 casualties of all severities, a decline of 3% compared to 2022"
A car is a very lethal device.
In a way, it is a bit like the situation with guns in Switzerland. Swiss have more guns than the US. The reason that this isn't a major problem, is not that the ammo for the military weapons is kept sealed. You can buy the ammo at gun ranges. It is because of culture.
Yes, we have a bit of road rage. However, the number of deliberate attempts to use a vehicle to kill is fortunately quite low.
Society depends on humans being decent, nearly all the time.
I did chemistry - I look at the cleaning products in DIY stores and smile at the panic politicians would be in, if they knew.
The reason appalling events do not happen more often, is simply that nearly everyone does not want to commit horrific acts.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
To round out your last paragraph - they shot someone driving a car linked to three recent shootings and thus they had a strong belief that the driver, whoever he was, would be armed.
John Kelly, Trumps former chief of staff calls Trump a fascist who berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above. When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
Off-topic... There was criticism around some COVID-19 messaging during the crisis phase of the pandemic, with some decrying fear-based adverts from the Government (e.g., multiple Telegraph articles). Well, they didn't scare the public:
We saw that at the time. The public were often out of step with the flow. The government would say another wave is coming, or cases are rising fast, please take care and reduce contact, and the response was one more big night out until we going into lockdown or Tier 3.5 or whatever. Or cases have risen fast in x location, so people went to y location in a lower tier.
The public reacted when their WhatsApp groups were filled with people saying they had got COVID, which was too late, because if all your mates have it and you went on a big'un with them, probably you got it too.
Isn't that the differences between a recession and a depression.
A recession is when a friend loses their job, a depression is when you lose yours...
A man was shot dead within a second of coming to the back door of his home during a police raid five years ago, a court has heard.
Sean Fitzgerald, aged 31, was shot in the chest at point blank range in Coventry on 4 January 2019.
The counter terrorism specialist firearms officer, referred to in court as “Officer K”, reported seeing Mr Fitzgerald carrying something in his hand, but it turned out to be a mobile phone.
Hadn't even heard about this one from my family in Coventry.
John Kelly, Trumps former chief of staff calls Trump a fascist who berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above. When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
"berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals."
So he didn't smash up other peoples countries for years and take massive bribes from Trump? Then when it all went wrong, didn't try to hide behind a couple of juniors who actually did something?
John Kelly, Trumps former chief of staff calls Trump a fascist who berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above. When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
But that also shows how Trump can win. Even if voters think Trump is a fascist, or a lunatic, or incontinent, he is still *our* candidate for the roughly half the country that will not support the Democrats. When the votes are counted, no-one cares who was holding their nose.
Another point on the public reaction to risk and COVID.
It was also true when restrictions were eased. Yes you had the very extreme (and still wearing triple masks now) I am never leaving my house ever again. However, a large proportion of the population went the other direction, it wasn't ok, so things are going in the right direction, we are allowed to do more, it was I am allowed on a foreign holiday, Margaret, getting on t'interweb we are going to Marbs....eat out to help out....I am on my 5th this week....
I also think after vaccination, all but the most scared of COVID, relaxed a lot and also it became obvious you were going to get it at some point, but now the science said you were very unlikely to die from it (well the science at the time said you probably well protected against even getting it).
Furthermore, the original advice from behavioural scientists said the scare tactics / restrictions wouldn't work for more than a few weeks. They actually worked a lot longer than that.
Unarmed ex soldier Sean Fitzgerald shot dead whilst holding a mobile on a cannabis raid. Where are the vigils for him ? Where is the outrage in the Coventry or military community ?
It sounds like on the surface he was in the forces and decided to grow some pot in his house perhaps after MH/job/falling in with the wrong crowd difficulties. But I hadn't even heard of this till I googled police shootings and found it via wiki today.
Where's the fuss over this ??
I've not read the story but judging from the URL, the publicity for that case is in the Daily Mail.
We should organise some Community Restorative Shopping in protest.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
He was not unarmed. He was armed with a car. Furthermore, the reason armed police had been deployed is that the car had been involved in a firearms incident the day before.
They did not know who was driving. They did not know if they were armed or not.
Millions of armed folk roaming the streets every day! Scary stuff..
In a way it is.
"In reported road collisions in Great Britain in 2023 there were an estimated:
1,645 fatalities, a decline of 4% compared to 2022 29,643 killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties, little change compared to 2022 132,063 casualties of all severities, a decline of 3% compared to 2022"
A car is a very lethal device.
In a way, it is a bit like the situation with guns in Switzerland. Swiss have more guns than the US. The reason that this isn't a major problem, is not that the ammo for the military weapons is kept sealed. You can buy the ammo at gun ranges. It is because of culture.
Yes, we have a bit of road rage. However, the number of deliberate attempts to use a vehicle to kill is fortunately quite low.
Society depends on humans being decent, nearly all the time.
I did chemistry - I look at the cleaning products in DIY stores and smile at the panic politicians would be in, if they knew.
The reason appalling events do not happen more often, is simply that nearly everyone does not want to commit horrific acts.
We have one of the lowest rates of car deaths in this country.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's pretty much me. You have nice friends.
Not enjoying the NV early data analysis though.
Just one big finger cross atm really.
Will you be OK if Trump wins?
Genuine question. We may have our differences over almost everything but I don’t like to see a fellow PBer suffer, even if they are insufferable!
You are SO invested in Trump losing - I worry for your mental state if he wins
We did 4 years with him already. He may do ok if he wins or he may cock it up and be gone within 18 months.
Unarmed ex soldier Sean Fitzgerald shot dead whilst holding a mobile on a cannabis raid. Where are the vigils for him ? Where is the outrage in the Coventry or military community ?
It sounds like on the surface he was in the forces and decided to grow some pot in his house perhaps after MH/job/falling in with the wrong crowd difficulties. But I hadn't even heard of this till I googled police shootings and found it via wiki today.
Where's the fuss over this ??
I've not read the story but judging from the URL, the publicity for that case is in the Daily Mail.
We should organise some Community Restorative Shopping in protest.
John Kelly, Trumps former chief of staff calls Trump a fascist who berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above. When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
But that also shows how Trump can win. Even if voters think Trump is a fascist, or a lunatic, or incontinent, he is still *our* candidate for the roughly half the country that will not support the Democrats. When the votes are counted, no-one cares who was holding their nose.
Yes the reasons Trump is well placed to win go back to early 2021 and the failure of McConnell et al to hold him to account. They briefly and half heartedly attempted to do so but went back to being his cucks.
If she hits private sector pensions she's the heir to Brown. He destroyed a generation of pensions and now Reeves is about to do the same for the next two generations.
I’m at the Yasukina Shinto shrine to Japan’s war dead, to honour all the good soldiers who did their best at Nanjing, and to say a prayer for rhe misunderstood medics of Unit 731
The Usonian Government knew what they were doing, which is why many were let off being held responsible for their war crimes in exchange for helping the new programmes created by the USA.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
It's not implausible, and if Harris wins then it will turn out to have been mostly right.
But you can construct plausible cases for concluding the contrary, and I struggle to find an objective way of opting for one set of arguments over the other.
Reeves is, by all available evidence, a technocrat. That may imply a lack of long term vision and a bit of political tone-deafness, but it also means she won't be hidebound by ideology like some chancellors. Her team are looking at what, in their reading, works.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
He was not unarmed. He was armed with a car. Furthermore, the reason armed police had been deployed is that the car had been involved in a firearms incident the day before.
They did not know who was driving. They did not know if they were armed or not.
Millions of armed folk roaming the streets every day! Scary stuff..
In a way it is.
"In reported road collisions in Great Britain in 2023 there were an estimated:
1,645 fatalities, a decline of 4% compared to 2022 29,643 killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties, little change compared to 2022 132,063 casualties of all severities, a decline of 3% compared to 2022"
A car is a very lethal device.
In a way, it is a bit like the situation with guns in Switzerland. Swiss have more guns than the US. The reason that this isn't a major problem, is not that the ammo for the military weapons is kept sealed. You can buy the ammo at gun ranges. It is because of culture.
Yes, we have a bit of road rage. However, the number of deliberate attempts to use a vehicle to kill is fortunately quite low.
Society depends on humans being decent, nearly all the time.
I did chemistry - I look at the cleaning products in DIY stores and smile at the panic politicians would be in, if they knew.
The reason appalling events do not happen more often, is simply that nearly everyone does not want to commit horrific acts.
We have one of the lowest rates of car deaths in this country.
Which is largely driven (ha!) by people being careful and decent, 99.999% of the time. Yes, road layouts, laws, car design etc *help*.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
He was not unarmed. He was armed with a car. Furthermore, the reason armed police had been deployed is that the car had been involved in a firearms incident the day before.
They did not know who was driving. They did not know if they were armed or not.
Millions of armed folk roaming the streets every day! Scary stuff..
Some irony that a tightening up of the law in regard to vehicular violence might come about because a police officer shot someone.
We cyclists have been trying to tell you lot for ages! Indeed, a recent alleged murder in Paris involved a SUV driver running over a cyclist.
John Kelly, Trumps former chief of staff calls Trump a fascist who berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above. When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
But that also shows how Trump can win. Even if voters think Trump is a fascist, or a lunatic, or incontinent, he is still *our* candidate for the roughly half the country that will not support the Democrats. When the votes are counted, no-one cares who was holding their nose.
Yes the reasons Trump is well placed to win go back to early 2021 and the failure of McConnell et al to hold him to account. They briefly and half heartedly attempted to do so but went back to being his cucks.
History will not judge any of these people kindly.
Probably has a better chance than the Dem in Florida.
Robert's analysis in the header is pretty decent - though I suspect the Democrats will hold all three rust belt states, not two. (And the independent in Nebraska is pretty conservative, rather than being a 'moderate'. He's just not part of the cult - so perhaps that makes him a moderate.)
I'm not tempted by the bet, as the odds are two short. If you've got a lot of spare cash in your Betfair account doing nothing, then perhaps not bad though.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I wholeheartedly agree with the emotion, I would feel the same. What I'm about to say isn't intended to counter your point.
It is nevertheless also a fact that the US election will impact UK citizens in a way that is not true the other way around, so I can understand why some activitists might want to campaign over there.
This, though, is a flaw in our global governance structures rather than a problem for the USA, and I would say to those activists that they are directing their efforts at the wrong target, as well as probably having the opposite effect that they would hope for.
There are usually US politicos helping the British parties campaign in our elections. There was a delegation of GOPers helping the Tories in this year’s election.
Ah that makes sense, I can see why they were so crap now.
Did they have a Buger King convention in Maidstone?
The latest TIPP tracker poll now shows Harris with a 2 point lead after a tie yesterday .
Harris 49 Trump 47
This is exactly a week after the previous high point for Harris with this tracker. Is there a day of week effect? How many days of fieldwork are in the tracker, so which days will today's sample be from?
The latest TIPP tracker poll now shows Harris with a 2 point lead after a tie yesterday .
Harris 49 Trump 47
There must be a hugely Blue day in the sample to pull the tracker around that quickly. That said, this poll has been up and down like the proverbial in recent days.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
If you discard polls and bets, the only data we have is the early voting data and the states they are campaigning in.
The states they are campaigning in Trump's campaigning locations are disordered (the McDonalds stunt was in California) but Harris/walz are campaigning in the swing states, which tells us the swing states are close...which we already knew
The early voting The early votes in Nevada give a Republican lead. The rurals are turning out for Trump more but the cities are turning out for Harris less. I think she'll lose Nevada
However early voting nationwide is much better for the Democrats, where they have a lead. Notable is Pennsylvania, where they have a large lead, and North Carolina, where they have a very small lead.
Whisper it, but I think Labour is having an OK couple of weeks and probably steadying the ship after the rapid declines post Reeves' WFA announcement. The budget tax hikes are priced in (and our expectations are probably being managed a bit), the economic news is reasonable, there have been no unforced errors for a week or so and news reporting has generally been neutral or positive.
The Trump news overnight might be quite good for Labour on its left and green flank. I've noticed the Twitter warriors out in force today. Such is the toxicity of Trump to anyone left of Genghis that him hating on Labour might help shore up the urban left wing vote a bit. I doubt it's going to do any damage.
The budget and US election result will determine how the rest of the year goes for the government. Bit of a waiting game for now.
Most posts prefaced by 'whisper it' tend to be shite I'm afraid, see Camilla Tominey's "Whisper it, but could Sunak be making a comeback?" (or similar sentiments). I can see an equivalent outcome for this post. In fact 'whisper it' and 'hasn't aged well' are pretty much linked like engine and carriage aren't they?
Shout it from the rooftops but is TRUSS making a comeback?
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
He was not unarmed. He was armed with a car. Furthermore, the reason armed police had been deployed is that the car had been involved in a firearms incident the day before.
They did not know who was driving. They did not know if they were armed or not.
Millions of armed folk roaming the streets every day! Scary stuff..
Some irony that a tightening up of the law in regard to vehicular violence might come about because a police officer shot someone.
We cyclists have been trying to tell you lot for ages! Indeed, a recent alleged murder in Paris involved a SUV driver running over a cyclist.
The law doesn't need tightening - the issue is charging. Which in turn is set at a level where the government can get convictions from juries.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I wholeheartedly agree with the emotion, I would feel the same. What I'm about to say isn't intended to counter your point.
It is nevertheless also a fact that the US election will impact UK citizens in a way that is not true the other way around, so I can understand why some activitists might want to campaign over there.
This, though, is a flaw in our global governance structures rather than a problem for the USA, and I would say to those activists that they are directing their efforts at the wrong target, as well as probably having the opposite effect that they would hope for.
There are usually US politicos helping the British parties campaign in our elections. There was a delegation of GOPers helping the Tories in this year’s election.
Ah that makes sense, I can see why they were so crap now.
Did they have a Buger King convention in Maidstone?
Off-topic... There was criticism around some COVID-19 messaging during the crisis phase of the pandemic, with some decrying fear-based adverts from the Government (e.g., multiple Telegraph articles). Well, they didn't scare the public:
We saw that at the time. The public were often out of step with the flow. The government would say another wave is coming, or cases are rising fast, please take care and reduce contact, and the response was one more big night out until we going into lockdown or Tier 3.5 or whatever. Or cases have risen fast in x location, so people went to y location in a lower tier.
The public reacted when their WhatsApp groups were filled with people saying they had got COVID, which was too late, because if all your mates have it and you went on a big'un with them, probably you got it too.
Given the state of play in the Senate (I agree with the above analysis), it seems mad and a touch selfish that Sotomayor didn't resign her seat in the last year so the current senate could confirm a younger progressive to the court.
I know Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a folk hero to some people, but the fact she didn't resign during Obama's term given her history of ill health ended up having massive repercussions shifting the court to the right.
I’m at the Yasukina Shinto shrine to Japan’s war dead, to honour all the good soldiers who did their best at Nanjing, and to say a prayer for rhe misunderstood medics of Unit 731
The Usonian Government knew what they were doing, which is why many were let off being held responsible for their war crimes in exchange for helping the new programmes created by the USA.
There's something of a parallel with the furious denial some have that we need properly to consider our slavery legacy.
Because the difference is that we then abolished slavery - the first major nation to do so - and THEN we spent billions (in todays money) sending the Royal Navy around the world abolishing slavery globally, using our navel hegemony to do so
Go visit Zanzibar and the Muslim slave pens there and see how David livingstone and the British empire are revered for what they did - abolishing Islamic slavery (which was even bigger and crueller than western slavery)
By all means let us confront our slaving past. But if we are to do that we must do it in toto, which means lefties might also have to admit that the British Empire also did a noble and wonderful thing. That will be tough for them and I guess they’d rather not
John Kelly, Trumps former chief of staff calls Trump a fascist who berated him for not being willing to act like Hitlers generals.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above. When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
But that also shows how Trump can win. Even if voters think Trump is a fascist, or a lunatic, or incontinent, he is still *our* candidate for the roughly half the country that will not support the Democrats. When the votes are counted, no-one cares who was holding their nose.
Yes the reasons Trump is well placed to win go back to early 2021 and the failure of McConnell et al to hold him to account. They briefly and half heartedly attempted to do so but went back to being his cucks.
History will not judge any of these people kindly.
Mitch. He has retired now. He had a few fall outs with Trump.
Russia really does do things that are classic cartoon baddie. Almost uniquely among modern states they seem to be happy to transgress pretty much every moral code in a blatant way. There are plenty of brutal governments out there but they tend either to justify it by extreme ideology, or go to great lengths to cover it up, or claim self defence with at least a degree of plausibility. Perhaps Putin's friend Assad is the other example.
They openly talk about invading Poland and the Baltics to secure access to Kaliningrad. They send convicts to the front with a promise of pardon even if they've committed cold blooded murder. They openly bribe voters in Moldova, openly blackmailed European states over gas supply, wave nukes around like young gang members with a new knife. They are complete Hollywood mobsters.
"In order to qualify, the gifts must come from income and form part of a regular pattern. Also, the donor will not be eligible for the tax break if they have to lower their living standards in order to afford the gifts."
The changes from a decade ago are huge increases in remand and recall prisoners.
Remand because we don't fund the courts. Recall because we don't fund the probation services and do silly things like expect prisoners to make their way into the world with £46, no job or housing and not commit further crime.
It's all easily solved over a few years and far cheaper than building an extra 30,000 prison places and paying £50k a year per prisoner if we are willing to fund the courts and probation services.
Whisper it, but I think Labour is having an OK couple of weeks and probably steadying the ship after the rapid declines post Reeves' WFA announcement. The budget tax hikes are priced in (and our expectations are probably being managed a bit), the economic news is reasonable, there have been no unforced errors for a week or so and news reporting has generally been neutral or positive.
The Trump news overnight might be quite good for Labour on its left and green flank. I've noticed the Twitter warriors out in force today. Such is the toxicity of Trump to anyone left of Genghis that him hating on Labour might help shore up the urban left wing vote a bit. I doubt it's going to do any damage.
The budget and US election result will determine how the rest of the year goes for the government. Bit of a waiting game for now.
Most posts prefaced by 'whisper it' tend to be shite I'm afraid, see Camilla Tominey's "Whisper it, but could Sunak be making a comeback?" (or similar sentiments). I can see an equivalent outcome for this post. In fact 'whisper it' and 'hasn't aged well' are pretty much linked like engine and carriage aren't they?
Shout it from the rooftops but is TRUSS making a comeback?
Some Hedge Funds boys from Mayfair had to sell some villas in the south of France to fund her next campaign.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I wholeheartedly agree with the emotion, I would feel the same. What I'm about to say isn't intended to counter your point.
It is nevertheless also a fact that the US election will impact UK citizens in a way that is not true the other way around, so I can understand why some activitists might want to campaign over there.
This, though, is a flaw in our global governance structures rather than a problem for the USA, and I would say to those activists that they are directing their efforts at the wrong target, as well as probably having the opposite effect that they would hope for.
There are usually US politicos helping the British parties campaign in our elections. There was a delegation of GOPers helping the Tories in this year’s election.
Ah that makes sense, I can see why they were so crap now.
Did they have a Buger King convention in Maidstone?
"In order to qualify, the gifts must come from income and form part of a regular pattern. Also, the donor will not be eligible for the tax break if they have to lower their living standards in order to afford the gifts."
Whisper it, but I think Labour is having an OK couple of weeks and probably steadying the ship after the rapid declines post Reeves' WFA announcement. The budget tax hikes are priced in (and our expectations are probably being managed a bit), the economic news is reasonable, there have been no unforced errors for a week or so and news reporting has generally been neutral or positive.
The Trump news overnight might be quite good for Labour on its left and green flank. I've noticed the Twitter warriors out in force today. Such is the toxicity of Trump to anyone left of Genghis that him hating on Labour might help shore up the urban left wing vote a bit. I doubt it's going to do any damage.
The budget and US election result will determine how the rest of the year goes for the government. Bit of a waiting game for now.
Most posts prefaced by 'whisper it' tend to be shite I'm afraid, see Camilla Tominey's "Whisper it, but could Sunak be making a comeback?" (or similar sentiments). I can see an equivalent outcome for this post. In fact 'whisper it' and 'hasn't aged well' are pretty much linked like engine and carriage aren't they?
You have a fair literary point there. Too late for the edit function so I'll issue a correction here and simply start with "Labour is having an OK couple of weeks".
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
If you discard polls and bets, the only data we have is the early voting data and the states they are campaigning in.
The states they are campaigning in Trump's campaigning locations are disordered (the McDonalds stunt was in California) but Harris/walz are campaigning in the swing states, which tells us the swing states are close...which we already knew
The early voting The early votes in Nevada give a Republican lead. The rurals are turning out for Trump more but the cities are turning out for Harris less. I think she'll lose Nevada
However early voting nationwide is much better for the Democrats, where they have a lead. Notable is Pennsylvania, where they have a large lead, and North Carolina, where they have a very small lead.
1) The campaigning just tells us that Trump and his team are disorganised and weird. Which is historically true, as well. Dems campaigning in the swing states is just evidence of sanity. Though they would be well advised to not neglect the "near swing" states, IMHO.
2) Early voting is more interesting. But even comparisons of early voting with previous elections are problematic. Too much has changed and the polarisation of American politics has created a game of 52 card pickup for many political behaviours.
"In order to qualify, the gifts must come from income and form part of a regular pattern. Also, the donor will not be eligible for the tax break if they have to lower their living standards in order to afford the gifts."
How is this calculated? Sounds very subjective.
Its a bit like the scheme people abused about giving / selling their home to a relative and paying rent back to them to live in, or the granny flat. It is supposed to be all market rate, very difficult to ensure that, the relative could pay what is on the very low end, you don't increase it for years on end, and that perhaps their shopping is bought for them every week. Its impossible to really know.
Furthermore, the original advice from behavioural scientists said the scare tactics / restrictions wouldn't work for more than a few weeks. They actually worked a lot longer than that.
Yes and no. There was a view among the government's top scientific advisers that "behavioural fatigue" was a thing and that restrictions wouldn't work for more than a few weeks, However, that didn't come from the behavioural scientists. The view just seems to have developed at a higher level. This was hashed out at the COVID-19 Inquiry when the chair of SPI-B was questioned.
I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.
Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.
I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
I'd take the bet that they won't.
I’m surprised by your pessimism. Good chance of a successful starship orbital re-fueling demonstration in 2025. And I think it follows after that he’d push very very hard to hit the 2026 earth Mars transfer window for a successful demonstration of landing on Mars. Who knows what tech they’d put on that trip, the marginal cost of loading some potentially useful cargo would be quite small even if the chance of a successful landing was only 50-50.
There’s then a couple of years to fine tune the system before the late 2028 transfer window. That’s four years from now, by then the Tesla robots will have proven more than capable of autonomously loading and unloading things and connecting a thing to a thing. Presumably the first mission will be setting up a solar farm and comms station. If they are very ambitious they might even get as far as a demonstration oxygen plant on that mission.
All just this side of a May 2029 UK election if that timetable is hit.
Reeves is, by all available evidence, a technocrat. That may imply a lack of long term vision and a bit of political tone-deafness, but it also means she won't be hidebound by ideology like some chancellors. Her team are looking at what, in their reading, works.
Too busy fencing to see the machine-gun salesman...
Technocratic managerialism won't work in the current debt-ridden growth-suppressed war-horizon'd climate. It works in good times but not in bad and these are bad times. Bold action is required.
I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.
Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.
I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
I'd take the bet that they won't.
I’m surprised by your pessimism. Good chance of a successful starship orbital re-fueling demonstration in 2025. And I think it follows after that he’d push very very hard to hit the 2026 earth Mars transfer window for a successful demonstration of landing on Mars. Who knows what tech they’d put on that trip, the marginal cost of loading some potentially useful cargo would be quite small even if the chance of a successful landing was only 50-50.
There’s then a couple of years to fine tune the system before the late 2028 transfer window. That’s four years from now, by then the Tesla robots will have proven more than capable of autonomously loading and unloading things and connecting a thing to a thing. Presumably the first mission will be setting up a solar farm and comms station. If they are very ambitious they might even get as far as a demonstration oxygen plant on that mission.
All just this side of a May 2029 UK election if that timetable is hit.
The planetary protection people will fight a serious battle to prevent a Starship landing on Mars.
For some of them, it is a religious issue. They want no humans or human capable landers on the surface.
At least, they claim, until the question of life is proven or disproven for the entire planet. Which, at the current rate of robotic exploration (and factoring in the effort taken to *not* include directly looking for life) will take forever. Literally.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
"In order to qualify, the gifts must come from income and form part of a regular pattern. Also, the donor will not be eligible for the tax break if they have to lower their living standards in order to afford the gifts."
How is this calculated? Sounds very subjective.
Its a bit like the scheme people abused about giving / selling their home to a relative and paying rent back to them to live in, or the granny flat. It is supposed to be all market rate, very difficult to ensure that, the relative could pay what is on the very low end, you don't increase it for years on end, and that perhaps their shopping is bought for them every week. Its impossible to really know.
It would provide a magnificent opportunity for lawyers to argue the cases.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
If you discard polls and bets, the only data we have is the early voting data and the states they are campaigning in.
The states they are campaigning in Trump's campaigning locations are disordered (the McDonalds stunt was in California) but Harris/walz are campaigning in the swing states, which tells us the swing states are close...which we already knew
The early voting The early votes in Nevada give a Republican lead. The rurals are turning out for Trump more but the cities are turning out for Harris less. I think she'll lose Nevada
However early voting nationwide is much better for the Democrats, where they have a lead. Notable is Pennsylvania, where they have a large lead, and North Carolina, where they have a very small lead.
1) The campaigning just tells us that Trump and his team are disorganised and weird. Which is historically true, as well. Dems campaigning in the swing states is just evidence of sanity. Though they would be well advised to not neglect the "near swing" states, IMHO.
2) Early voting is more interesting. But even comparisons of early voting with previous elections are problematic. Too much has changed and the polarisation of American politics has created a game of 52 card pickup for many political behaviours.
"But even comparisons of early voting with previous elections are problematic."
I know that (2020 was Covid and Trump told his forces not to vote early), which is why I'm not comparing to different elections. On the EV data I think she'll win Pennsylvania and lose Nevada.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
Harris has two huge disadvantages she can do nothing about:
1. She is a woman 2. She is not white
Both matter in the US much more than they do in the UK. Then add voter views on the fundamentals - the economy and immigration - are both heavily in Trump's favour;. Throw in, on top of that, she is just not a great candidate.
The Democrats messed up two years ago when they should have made clear that Biden would not be fighting this election. Since then, it has been Trump's to lose. Getting rid of Biden at the last moment gave the Democrats a chance when they previously had none - but a chance is all it ever was. It flickered and is now dying.
Anyone who votes for Trump knows who he is. They have agency and they are happy to overlook his racism, his criminality, his opposition to democracy and the rule of law, his support for Putin and so on. But the Democrats messed up by failing to understand just how many Americans really don't mind voting for such a candidate if they do not like the alternative. If it wasn't for the harm a Trump presidency will do the UK, I would be watching all this with detached interest. But the forthcoming betrayal of Ukraine and trans-Atlantic trade war are going to be very bad for us. It's worrying.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
"In order to qualify, the gifts must come from income and form part of a regular pattern. Also, the donor will not be eligible for the tax break if they have to lower their living standards in order to afford the gifts."
How is this calculated? Sounds very subjective.
Its a bit like the scheme people abused about giving / selling their home to a relative and paying rent back to them to live in, or the granny flat. It is supposed to be all market rate, very difficult to ensure that, the relative could pay what is on the very low end, you don't increase it for years on end, and that perhaps their shopping is bought for them every week. Its impossible to really know.
It would provide a magnificent opportunity for lawyers to argue the cases.
Its never gets to them unless you very extreme end. The authorities have 20,000 other things to do than worry if little old granny living in a flat above your garage at £500 a month is the going rate and I am sure if on the very rare occasion there are all sorts of get outs e.g. you don't closely follow the rental property market, £500 was a perfectly reasonable amount 5 year ago.
I mean we haven't even reassessed property values for council tax for what 30 years.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I agree with you 100% CR.
There’s something dozy about Starmer’s government, and all the pushy but useless advisers around him and running the party are very naive.
Why are Labour flooding a foreign election with activists in a time of sensitivity about foreign interference in elections?
I think Labour have messed up and given Trump a win. Not a technical win, but a broad brush win. But this isn’t a technical election, but a broad brush election.
Dopey, naive Labour handing Trump easy broad brush win. In a tight election. 🤬
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's a comfort blanket that your friend is clinging to.
The good quality polls show that it is a coin toss, in terms of vote share (which likely means Trump is ahead in the Electoral College).
No the good quality polls show a small Harris lead in vote share. It's a coin toss in the EC. E.g. just today Ipsos,Yougov have Harris up by 2-3 pts.
I’d also posit that Trump’s tariff policies will make joining the EU a must as we’d get all the benefits of the single market and customs union.
Perhaps Don does have some redeeming features after all.
I was watching the angry popinjay Jenrick on Newsnight yesterday evening. He's preparing for even greater isolationism from Europe, but seems quite keen on dealing with the Trumper.
The mathematics of our electoral cycle and their term limits mean that Jenrick will never get to deal with Trump, unless Trump becomes dictator for life.
Here’s a thought. By the time of the next UK election, there’s a good chance that Elon’s humanoid robots will be wandering around on the surface of Mars, prepping the oxygen and propellant factory for the first human arrivals.
I'd take the bet that they won't.
I’m surprised by your pessimism. Good chance of a successful starship orbital re-fueling demonstration in 2025. And I think it follows after that he’d push very very hard to hit the 2026 earth Mars transfer window for a successful demonstration of landing on Mars. Who knows what tech they’d put on that trip, the marginal cost of loading some potentially useful cargo would be quite small even if the chance of a successful landing was only 50-50.
There’s then a couple of years to fine tune the system before the late 2028 transfer window. That’s four years from now, by then the Tesla robots will have proven more than capable of autonomously loading and unloading things and connecting a thing to a thing. Presumably the first mission will be setting up a solar farm and comms station. If they are very ambitious they might even get as far as a demonstration oxygen plant on that mission.
All just this side of a May 2029 UK election if that timetable is hit.
Hold on... land on Mars with what? Are they going to take a Starship down to the surface and land on a plain? He hasn't got any hardware that can land and take off without refuelling.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I agree with you 100% CR.
There’s something dozy about Starmer’s government, and all the pushy but useless advisers around him and running the party are very naive.
Why are Labour flooding a foreign election with activists in a time of sensitivity about foreign interference in elections?
I think Labour have messed up and given Trump a win. Not a technical win, but a broad brush win. But this isn’t a technical election, but a broad brush election.
Dopey, naive Labour handing Trump easy broad brush win. In a tight election. 🤬
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
“The Community” must have been traumatised by Kaba’s actions.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I agree with you 100% CR.
There’s something dozy about Starmer’s government, and all the pushy but useless advisers around him and running the party are very naive.
Why are Labour flooding a foreign election with activists in a time of sensitivity about foreign interference in elections?
I think Labour have messed up and given Trump a win. Not a technical win, but a broad brush win. But this isn’t a technical election, but a broad brush election.
Dopey, naive Labour handing Trump easy broad brush win. In a tight election. 🤬
Not the best political move. Still Wendy's in Oakland would have been a good venue for some brainstorming.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's pretty much me. You have nice friends.
Not enjoying the NV early data analysis though.
Just one big finger cross atm really.
Will you be OK if Trump wins?
Genuine question. We may have our differences over almost everything but I don’t like to see a fellow PBer suffer, even if they are insufferable!
You are SO invested in Trump losing - I worry for your mental state if he wins
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I agree with you 100% CR.
There’s something dozy about Starmer’s government, and all the pushy but useless advisers around him and running the party are very naive.
Why are Labour flooding a foreign election with activists in a time of sensitivity about foreign interference in elections?
I think Labour have messed up and given Trump a win. Not a technical win, but a broad brush win. But this isn’t a technical election, but a broad brush election.
Dopey, naive Labour handing Trump easy broad brush win. In a tight election. 🤬
I don't think it's going to make any difference really, not a single person is going to change their minds about how to vote or if they will vote. The people who get upset at this on the right are people who would have been voting anyway and anyone who is going to listen to a British activist on the left was also going to vote anyway.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's a comfort blanket that your friend is clinging to.
The good quality polls show that it is a coin toss, in terms of vote share (which likely means Trump is ahead in the Electoral College).
No the good quality polls show a small Harris lead in vote share. It's a coin toss in the EC. E.g. just today Ipsos,Yougov have Harris up by 2-3 pts.
And Fox has Trump 2% ahead, Atlas 3%. Emerson and Suffolk each have Harris ahead by 1%. Average those out, and you get a lead of 0.4% for Harris.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's pretty much me. You have nice friends.
Not enjoying the NV early data analysis though.
Just one big finger cross atm really.
Will you be OK if Trump wins?
Genuine question. We may have our differences over almost everything but I don’t like to see a fellow PBer suffer, even if they are insufferable!
You are SO invested in Trump losing - I worry for your mental state if he wins
No I won't.
I would like him to loose. If he wins I will be fine as I was during his last four years. If he looses I would like the people on here to support me when I go and see him and ask why he lost.
I think there's moral silo-ing involved here (I'm not sure what the term is), where human beings (all of us in different ways) put up Chinese Walls between parts of our minds and think and behave differently in different loci. Perhaps "Balkanised conscience" is a good term.
Take the one in the story who said he committed rape on Gisele Pelicot, but he did not think of it at the time to stop himself, to name it for what it was. He said he should have stopped when he saw she was unconscious, but went ahead and committed the rape. What happened to his conscience? I'm reminded of deflecting excuses made by drunk drivers - I'm a good person, not a drunk driver.
The challenge for the rest of us is that the people committing these crimes are so typical, so normal, that it holds up the "could I do that?" or "could I be groomed into doing that?" mirror to all of us.
Draw a parallel with Mohammed Al-Fayed or Donald Trump's little helpers, who have seen crime going on and choose to ignore it, for various reasons. Or those who were present but looked away, or heard rumours and ignored them.
"None of my business", "Nothing to do with me" and all the rest.
Standards change - it is only recently that rape in marriage has been made a crime in even European countries, between the 1970s and the 1990s approximately. In my parents' time it was considered OK, using different language.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's a comfort blanket that your friend is clinging to.
The good quality polls show that it is a coin toss, in terms of vote share (which likely means Trump is ahead in the Electoral College).
No the good quality polls show a small Harris lead in vote share. It's a coin toss in the EC. E.g. just today Ipsos,Yougov have Harris up by 2-3 pts.
And Fox has Trump 2% ahead, Atlas 3%. Emerson and Suffolk each have Harris ahead by 1%. Average those out, and you get a lead of 0.4% for Harris.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
To round out your last paragraph - they shot someone driving a car linked to three recent shootings and thus they had a strong belief that the driver, whoever he was, would be armed.
Like with some previous police shootings - Harry Stanley is the most obvious one, shot while carrying a chair leg - if the police have a belief that you may be armed then you have to do everything right to avoid being shot.
This is not much different to the situation in the US, except that the prevalence and use of guns is so much greater that the police there have a belief that everyone they interact with may be armed, and so people have to do everything right in every interaction with police to avoid being shot.
In the UK, the really tragic cases are those where an entirely innocent person has no reason to suspect that police may believe they are armed, react entirely naturally, and then get shot. But that doesn't feel like the situation with this recent case.
It feels quite offensive to those victims of police shootings - like Harry Stanley - to be lumped in by the media with this case. There have been awful cases of people dying in British police custody after being inappropriately restrained, there was the PC rightly jailed for killing Dalian Atkinson with a taser. I think there's been progress on making sure that the police are not above the law.
The reporting of this case has been abysmal, and I think the CPS have wasted court time. There's no way this case should have been treated as a cause célèbre.
"In order to qualify, the gifts must come from income and form part of a regular pattern. Also, the donor will not be eligible for the tax break if they have to lower their living standards in order to afford the gifts."
How is this calculated? Sounds very subjective.
Its a bit like the scheme people abused about giving / selling their home to a relative and paying rent back to them to live in, or the granny flat. It is supposed to be all market rate, very difficult to ensure that, the relative could pay what is on the very low end, you don't increase it for years on end, and that perhaps their shopping is bought for them every week. Its impossible to really know.
It would provide a magnificent opportunity for lawyers to argue the cases.
Its never gets to them unless you very extreme end. The authorities have 20,000 other things to do than worry if little old granny living in a flat above your garage at £500 a month is the going rate and I am sure if on the very rare occasion there are all sorts of get outs e.g. you don't closely follow the rental property market, £500 was a perfectly reasonable amount 5 year ago.
I mean we haven't even reassessed property values for council tax for what 30 years.
Because no-one can find a way of doing it that isn't a political nightmare.
The solution would be to move council tax into some central government tax based on house prices and gives councils a percentage of income tax or similar...
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's a comfort blanket that your friend is clinging to.
The good quality polls show that it is a coin toss, in terms of vote share (which likely means Trump is ahead in the Electoral College).
No the good quality polls show a small Harris lead in vote share. It's a coin toss in the EC. E.g. just today Ipsos,Yougov have Harris up by 2-3 pts.
And Fox has Trump 2% ahead, Atlas 3%. Emerson and Suffolk each have Harris ahead by 1%. Average those out, and you get a lead of 0.4% for Harris.
Fox. Real quality. Stopped broadcasting here.
Fox polls are rated in the top 20, by 538, but I’m sure you know better.
I must say it does irritate me when Britons write letters, take leave and go out to campaign in US elections, on any side.
It's none of our business. And would piss me off were I an American.
I agree with you 100% CR.
There’s something dozy about Starmer’s government, and all the pushy but useless advisers around him and running the party are very naive.
Why are Labour flooding a foreign election with activists in a time of sensitivity about foreign interference in elections?
I think Labour have messed up and given Trump a win. Not a technical win, but a broad brush win. But this isn’t a technical election, but a broad brush election.
Dopey, naive Labour handing Trump easy broad brush win. In a tight election. 🤬
Anyone who votes for Trump knows who he is. They have agency and they are happy to overlook his racism, his criminality, his opposition to democracy and the rule of law, his support for Putin and so on. But the Democrats messed up by failing to understand just how many Americans really don't mind voting for such a candidate if they do not like the alternative. If it wasn't for the harm a Trump presidency will do the UK, I would be watching all this with detached interest. But the forthcoming betrayal of Ukraine and trans-Atlantic trade war are going to be very bad for us. It's worrying.
People vote for fascists, again and again, despite the lessons from history.
We assume that Hitler was an aberration, but it appears a lot of Americans don't see it that way.
An American friend (a dem and Trump-hater) on the movement in betting markets towards Trump:
"If you look at the polls the market is flooded with GOP polls which skew it to Trumps favour, If you look at independent high quality polls it’s very steady for Harris. As for betting, that was also skewed heavily by a few very large bets. They need the illusion he has this in the bag so they can claim fraud after the election. And all the polls over estimate the quiet Trump voter to compensate for past mistakes and I think they underestimating the quiet female voter, republican women voting for Harris. The turnout has been outstanding which generally bodes well for Dems. I’m not saying it won’t be close but I don’t think it’s going to be as close as polls are predicting."
Thoughts?
That's pretty much me. You have nice friends.
Not enjoying the NV early data analysis though.
Just one big finger cross atm really.
Will you be OK if Trump wins?
Genuine question. We may have our differences over almost everything but I don’t like to see a fellow PBer suffer, even if they are insufferable!
You are SO invested in Trump losing - I worry for your mental state if he wins
Oh I see, we are still doing this...it seems clear some in the media really want(ed) this to be the UK George Floyd.
Chris Kaba verdict leaves community traumatised
Black communities in south London are "really traumatised" and feel they have been "denied justice" after a police officer was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, community leaders have said.
How much worse would Kaba's record have to be to make you think it was the correct decision? I mean he was only the prime suspect (in that car) of 3 shootings in the months leading up to the stop alone.
Few will shed tears for Chris Kaba. Most will be sympathetic to a police officer who had to decide in an instant whether to shoot.
The point is that Kaba's record should be irrelevant. The police shot dead an unarmed Black man. That Kaba was armed the day and week before, and would have been armed the week afterwards, is not justification for killing him. And aiui the police did not know it was Kaba in the car anyway.
That claim about not knowing it was Kaba, is now irrelevant and not sure true. The car was linked to 3 shooting, and i wouldn't be surprised if the police didn't have a good idea it was him, he was a known "face" and they had DNA evidence of him from a previous shooting seen with that car.
Even if they didn't know it was definitely him, they have that car at the scene of 3 very recent shooting, the presumption has to be armed.
And the whole article is still community tramatised...why? A serial gangster was shot after repeatedly ignore police commands and trying the ram / run them down, that isn't the police shooting random people.
The people truly traumatised by all this are surely the black Londoners that Kaba variously shot, stabbed, killed and terrorised - including the pregnant mother of his child, who had a restraining order against him
This guy was an evil c*nt, an eager gangster and a cold blooded killer who was always headed for an unlamented early grave. I imagine that in reality his “community” is quite relieved he is no more
It's similar to the way that, during the Troubles, relatives of IRA members who got killed on "active service", would get genuinely indignant that their intended victims *shot back*.
The troubling thing however is it's not just the family that is talked of. Statements about the 'community' being traumatised. Mayor Khan statements appear to have reflected this. Our leaders need to consider whether their statements are helping or hindering efforts at cohesion in these situations.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
“The Community” must have been traumatised by Kaba’s actions.
Yeah but which 'community'. It's been interesting reading comments from black people claiming that the likes of Kaba have made their lives hell. As soom as there are rumours of a potential riot or just protests after this sort of event everyone is desperate to calm things down. The BBC and Guardian appear to operate on a 'no smoke without fire' basis, blithely ignoring the fact there are plenty of grifters blowing smoke out of their asses.
Comments
As you might be aware, Musk has recently decided to update the tired dystopian fiction trope in which impoverished citizens are forced to compete in deadly gameshows where the winner gets a life-changingly glittering prize, and the losers are killed for sport. In Elon’s rebooted version, the richest man in the world is giving struggling voters the chance to win a million dollars if they sign a “petition” in favour of free speech and the right to bear arms.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/elon-musk-million-dollars-donald-trump-elected
I can't see how a Foreigner knocking on doors helps anyone....
Manchester Arena attack survivors win harassment case against conspiracy theorist Richard Hall who claims it was hoax
Two survivors of the Manchester Arena attack have won their harassment case against a conspiracy theorist who claims the bombing was "staged".
Former television producer Richard Hall has said he believes the attack at an Ariana Grande concert in 2017 was a hoax, and that no one was "genuinely injured".
Martin Hibbert and his daughter Eve, who were both severely injured in the explosion, brought legal proceedings against Mr Hall for harassment and data protection, with a civil trial taking place in July.
High Court judge Mrs Justice Steyn ruling today that "the claimants have succeeded on their harassment claim", adding that she would not decide the data protection claim at this stage.
https://news.sky.com/story/manchester-arena-attack-survivors-win-harassment-case-against-conspiracy-theorist-richard-hall-who-claimed-it-was-hoax-13239402
Not enjoying the NV early data analysis though.
Just one big finger cross atm really.
https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/10/e088027
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12929551/police-firearms-officer-unarmed-ex-soldier-no-prosecution.html
Unarmed ex soldier Sean Fitzgerald shot dead whilst holding a mobile on a cannabis raid. Where are the vigils for him ? Where is the outrage in the Coventry or military community ?
It sounds like on the surface he was in the forces and decided to grow some pot in his house perhaps after MH/job/falling in with the wrong crowd difficulties. But I hadn't even heard of this till I googled police shootings and found it via wiki today.
Where's the fuss over this ??
Genuine question. We may have our differences over almost everything but I don’t like to see a fellow PBer suffer, even if they are insufferable!
You are SO invested in Trump losing - I worry for your mental state if he wins
The public reacted when their WhatsApp groups were filled with people saying they had got COVID, which was too late, because if all your mates have it and you went on a big'un with them, probably you got it too.
And if someone with a MAGA hat turned up to canvas for Reform, well it would be interesting too.
Adds a bit of exoticism to elections.
"In reported road collisions in Great Britain in 2023 there were an estimated:
1,645 fatalities, a decline of 4% compared to 2022
29,643 killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties, little change compared to 2022
132,063 casualties of all severities, a decline of 3% compared to 2022"
A car is a very lethal device.
In a way, it is a bit like the situation with guns in Switzerland. Swiss have more guns than the US. The reason that this isn't a major problem, is not that the ammo for the military weapons is kept sealed. You can buy the ammo at gun ranges. It is because of culture.
Yes, we have a bit of road rage. However, the number of deliberate attempts to use a vehicle to kill is fortunately quite low.
Society depends on humans being decent, nearly all the time.
I did chemistry - I look at the cleaning products in DIY stores and smile at the panic politicians would be in, if they knew.
The reason appalling events do not happen more often, is simply that nearly everyone does not want to commit horrific acts.
Two observations:
He still wont endorse Harris. Pathetic given the above.
When pb-ers point out Trump is a fascist, we get accused of being ultra woke partisan socialists. In reality we are just normal people who have not lost the ability to say what is in plain sight without whataboutery.
A recession is when a friend loses their job, a depression is when you lose yours...
So he didn't smash up other peoples countries for years and take massive bribes from Trump? Then when it all went wrong, didn't try to hide behind a couple of juniors who actually did something?
It was also true when restrictions were eased. Yes you had the very extreme (and still wearing triple masks now) I am never leaving my house ever again. However, a large proportion of the population went the other direction, it wasn't ok, so things are going in the right direction, we are allowed to do more, it was I am allowed on a foreign holiday, Margaret, getting on t'interweb we are going to Marbs....eat out to help out....I am on my 5th this week....
I also think after vaccination, all but the most scared of COVID, relaxed a lot and also it became obvious you were going to get it at some point, but now the science said you were very unlikely to die from it (well the science at the time said you probably well protected against even getting it).
Furthermore, the original advice from behavioural scientists said the scare tactics / restrictions wouldn't work for more than a few weeks. They actually worked a lot longer than that.
Anyone up for helping me with a 60" TV?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/inheritance/families-save-60000-inheritance-tax-loophole-labour-axe/ (£££)
Reeves is heir to Osborne, not Brown.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/23/a-soldier-a-nurse-a-lorry-driver-and-dozens-more-who-are-the-men-accused-over-and-assault-of-gisele-pelicot
Seriously, I'd be interested to know what memorials there are to the prisoners, POWs and Chinese Civilians they experimented on.
https://www.pacificatrocities.org/human-experimentation.html (for just a start).
There's something of a parallel with the furious denial some have that we need properly to consider our slavery legacy.
But you can construct plausible cases for concluding the contrary, and I struggle to find an objective way of opting for one set of arguments over the other.
Russians accused of crimes offered choice - go to war instead of court
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrjrp7625mo
But it all comes down to the driver.
We cyclists have been trying to tell you lot for ages! Indeed, a recent alleged murder in Paris involved a SUV driver running over a cyclist.
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/19/colin-allred-texas-senate-football-nfl-titans-baylor/
Probably has a better chance than the Dem in Florida.
Robert's analysis in the header is pretty decent - though I suspect the Democrats will hold all three rust belt states, not two.
(And the independent in Nebraska is pretty conservative, rather than being a 'moderate'. He's just not part of the cult - so perhaps that makes him a moderate.)
I'm not tempted by the bet, as the odds are two short. If you've got a lot of spare cash in your Betfair account doing nothing, then perhaps not bad though.
The states they are campaigning in
Trump's campaigning locations are disordered (the McDonalds stunt was in California) but Harris/walz are campaigning in the swing states, which tells us the swing states are close...which we already knew
The early voting
The early votes in Nevada give a Republican lead. The rurals are turning out for Trump more but the cities are turning out for Harris less. I think she'll lose Nevada
However early voting nationwide is much better for the Democrats, where they have a lead. Notable is Pennsylvania, where they have a large lead, and North Carolina, where they have a very small lead.
If anybody can offer counter-argument, happy to be persuaded otherwise. Links are:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
I know Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a folk hero to some people, but the fact she didn't resign during Obama's term given her history of ill health ended up having massive repercussions shifting the court to the right.
Go visit Zanzibar and the Muslim slave pens there and see how David livingstone and the British empire are revered for what they did - abolishing Islamic slavery (which was even bigger and crueller than western slavery)
By all means let us confront our slaving past. But if we are to do that we must do it in toto, which means lefties might also have to admit that the British Empire also did a noble and wonderful thing. That will be tough for them and I guess they’d rather not
They openly talk about invading Poland and the Baltics to secure access to Kaliningrad. They send convicts to the front with a promise of pardon even if they've committed cold blooded murder. They openly bribe voters in Moldova, openly blackmailed European states over gas supply, wave nukes around like young gang members with a new knife. They are complete Hollywood mobsters.
How is this calculated? Sounds very subjective.
The changes from a decade ago are huge increases in remand and recall prisoners.
Remand because we don't fund the courts.
Recall because we don't fund the probation services and do silly things like expect prisoners to make their way into the world with £46, no job or housing and not commit further crime.
It's all easily solved over a few years and far cheaper than building an extra 30,000 prison places and paying £50k a year per prisoner if we are willing to fund the courts and probation services.
2) Early voting is more interesting. But even comparisons of early voting with previous elections are problematic. Too much has changed and the polarisation of American politics has created a game of 52 card pickup for many political behaviours.
And, indeed, "behavioural fatigue", didn't happen: https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-022-12777-x
There’s then a couple of years to fine tune the system before the late 2028 transfer window. That’s four years from now, by then the Tesla robots will have proven more than capable of autonomously loading and unloading things and connecting a thing to a thing. Presumably the first mission will be setting up a solar farm and comms station. If they are very ambitious they might even get as far as a demonstration oxygen plant on that mission.
All just this side of a May 2029 UK election if that timetable is hit.
Technocratic managerialism won't work in the current debt-ridden growth-suppressed war-horizon'd climate. It works in good times but not in bad and these are bad times. Bold action is required.
For some of them, it is a religious issue. They want no humans or human capable landers on the surface.
At least, they claim, until the question of life is proven or disproven for the entire planet. Which, at the current rate of robotic exploration (and factoring in the effort taken to *not* include directly looking for life) will take forever. Literally.
The most fascinating thing I've learned today is Peter Bleksey claiming that the Jury wrote a letter for the Judge to read out with regards to the prosecution. The Judge declined.
I know that (2020 was Covid and Trump told his forces not to vote early), which is why I'm not comparing to different elections. On the EV data I think she'll win Pennsylvania and lose Nevada.
1. She is a woman
2. She is not white
Both matter in the US much more than they do in the UK. Then add voter views on the fundamentals - the economy and immigration - are both heavily in Trump's favour;. Throw in, on top of that, she is just not a great candidate.
The Democrats messed up two years ago when they should have made clear that Biden would not be fighting this election. Since then, it has been Trump's to lose. Getting rid of Biden at the last moment gave the Democrats a chance when they previously had none - but a chance is all it ever was. It flickered and is now dying.
Anyone who votes for Trump knows who he is. They have agency and they are happy to overlook his racism, his criminality, his opposition to democracy and the rule of law, his support for Putin and so on. But the Democrats messed up by failing to understand just how many Americans really don't mind voting for such a candidate if they do not like the alternative. If it wasn't for the harm a Trump presidency will do the UK, I would be watching all this with detached interest. But the forthcoming betrayal of Ukraine and trans-Atlantic trade war are going to be very bad for us. It's worrying.
https://x.com/PeterBleksley/status/1848861044145590486
I mean we haven't even reassessed property values for council tax for what 30 years.
There’s something dozy about Starmer’s government, and all the pushy but useless advisers around him and running the party are very naive.
Why are Labour flooding a foreign election with activists in a time of sensitivity about foreign interference in elections?
I think Labour have messed up and given Trump a win. Not a technical win, but a broad brush win. But this isn’t a technical election, but a broad brush election.
Dopey, naive Labour handing Trump easy broad brush win. In a tight election. 🤬
E.g. just today Ipsos,Yougov have Harris up by 2-3 pts.
Arrrh I see.
It's just embarrassing.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4947749-cruz-allred-texas-senate-race-poll/
Genuine shot at it ?
Or just a value loser ?
If I had been on the jury, my main comment on the prosecution would have been "WTAF?"
Take the one in the story who said he committed rape on Gisele Pelicot, but he did not think of it at the time to stop himself, to name it for what it was. He said he should have stopped when he saw she was unconscious, but went ahead and committed the rape. What happened to his conscience? I'm reminded of deflecting excuses made by drunk drivers - I'm a good person, not a drunk driver.
The challenge for the rest of us is that the people committing these crimes are so typical, so normal, that it holds up the "could I do that?" or "could I be groomed into doing that?" mirror to all of us.
Draw a parallel with Mohammed Al-Fayed or Donald Trump's little helpers, who have seen crime going on and choose to ignore it, for various reasons. Or those who were present but looked away, or heard rumours and ignored them.
"None of my business", "Nothing to do with me" and all the rest.
Standards change - it is only recently that rape in marriage has been made a crime in even European countries, between the 1970s and the 1990s approximately. In my parents' time it was considered OK, using different language.
Plus ça change...
This is not much different to the situation in the US, except that the prevalence and use of guns is so much greater that the police there have a belief that everyone they interact with may be armed, and so people have to do everything right in every interaction with police to avoid being shot.
In the UK, the really tragic cases are those where an entirely innocent person has no reason to suspect that police may believe they are armed, react entirely naturally, and then get shot. But that doesn't feel like the situation with this recent case.
It feels quite offensive to those victims of police shootings - like Harry Stanley - to be lumped in by the media with this case. There have been awful cases of people dying in British police custody after being inappropriately restrained, there was the PC rightly jailed for killing Dalian Atkinson with a taser. I think there's been progress on making sure that the police are not above the law.
The reporting of this case has been abysmal, and I think the CPS have wasted court time. There's no way this case should have been treated as a cause célèbre.
The solution would be to move council tax into some central government tax based on house prices and gives councils a percentage of income tax or similar...
We assume that Hitler was an aberration, but it appears a lot of Americans don't see it that way.