11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Not saying it's right, but maybe it's the perceived difference between a young person being killed who had their whole life still ahead of them, versus an oldie, who's already "had a good innings"Eabhal said:
Oh I don't doubt that at all. It's just curious that the same risk-based approach is not applied to older drivers too.MattW said:
I think the numbers are different enough and distinct enough that it would fly. There are already major differences by attributes - such as medical licences, plus the age restriction itself for getting a licence. The number afaics say restrict males more than females, but that is problematic - see what happened with insurance. Plus a version of Graduated Licences has been in place in NI since ~2016.Eabhal said:
It would be interesting to challenge something like that on age discrimination grounds. Car drivers over the age of 86 are more likely to be KSIed than those aged 17-24. For women, the rate is almost double.MattW said:Interesting from the other day. AA support for graduated driving licences.
Drivers aged under 21 who have just passed their tests should be prevented from carrying passengers of a similar age for their first six months as drivers, the AA has said.
It suggested tougher rules that would also see them handed six penalty points for not wearing a seatbelt during the period - meaning they could lose their licence.
The motoring organisation says the proposal for a particular type of licence targeted at new, young drivers has the potential to prevent 934 serious injuries and save 58 lives on UK roads each year.
Similar measures - known as graduated driving licensing (GDL) - already exist in Northern Ireland. The Department for Transport (DfT) has said it is not currently considering the measures for elsewhere in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c361g6nz5j1o
DFT currently not thinking about it:
A Department for Transport spokesperson said it was not currently considering graduated driving licences and is looking for other ways of keeping young drivers safe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7565nr19eko
There a significant increase in KSI rate starting at age 70, so a SPA linked re-test would be effective, notwithstanding the inevitable howls of outrage from the Telegraph.
I think they are perhaps worried about the extra workload on the DVLA, plus the police. Both also need addressing.2 -
It was a very clearcut case of self-defence.BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?0 -
"Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says
Sabine Hossenfelder"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwXswyt-zg0 -
Big news in Stornoway....
https://www.stornowaygazette.co.uk/business/tesco-announce-sunday-opening-date-4833800
"There has been strong opposition to the prospect of Sunday opening from island churches and also many without religious affiliations. An online petition asking Tesco not to go ahead has attracted 1900 signatures since being launched three weeks ago."1 -
Or defence of othersSean_F said:
It was a very clearcut case of self-defence.BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
1 -
I never said we shouldNickPalmer said:
I don't feel especially at risk from the police, being a boring middle-class law-abiding type. But I do think that they on average relax their standards when dealing with people in a criminal environment. It's clearly more difficult, but we shouldn't shrug off the fatal mistakes when they happen, just because the victims are not paragons of virtue. At most that counts as mitigation.Leon said:
He was a violent drug addict and a truly nasty thugCookie said:
It's weirdly controversial to say it, but George Floyd was no paragon of virtue. His killing was of course an example of a police system and culture of criminality which clearly doesn't work very well, but he was no ingenue.Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
The attempt to sanctify him is as nauseating and disturbing as the absurd violence of SOME American cops
I’ve seen too many hideous videos of American cops casually murdering people (of all races)
But George Floyd was a nasty piece of work who did nasty things - like putting a loaded gun to the belly of a pregnant woman
He was a victim of a murder it seemed to me. Cold and brutal. But then they turned him into a saint. Ugh0 -
I was reading about that a few weeks ago. Kind of unsurprising when you think about it.Andy_JS said:"Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says
Sabine Hossenfelder"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwXswyt-zg
I think as a rule of thumb it's always worth questioning long standing records or cohort data that seem to be out of kilter with wider trends. So for example we had absolute age records at a time when life expectancy and healthcare were way behind what they are now, yet nobody had seemed to be getting close to catching them (that French woman from a century ago being the classic).
The other two obvious cases are sporting records, particularly in athletics and cycling, that were huge outliers in their time. Usually some sort of chemical involved. And weather records, notably extreme high temperatures recorded during an era when the earth's temperature was much lower and usually big outliers from surrounding stations. Several of those have come a cropper.2 -
All together now: scientists are experts in their field, which is very narrow, but have no particular expertise outside it.Andy_JS said:"Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says
Sabine Hossenfelder"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwXswyt-zg1 -
This is why you need polymaths like me.viewcode said:
All together now: scientists are experts in their field, which is very narrow, but have no particular expertise outside it.Andy_JS said:"Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says
Sabine Hossenfelder"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwXswyt-zg1 -
Statistic of the day: There have been 65 incidents at which police have intentionally fired their guns in England and Wales…
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-use-of-firearms-statistics-april-2023-to-march-2024/police-use-of-firearms-statistics-england-and-wales-april-2023-to-march-2024
…in the past DECADE.0 -
Reminder of what Sadiq khan said about Kaba last year
“My thoughts are with Chris Kaba’s loved ones today. His death has had a huge impact on Londoners, and in particular Black Londoners. Anger, pain and fear has been felt across communities, along with a desire for change and justice.”
https://x.com/sadiqkhan/status/1641446784009654281?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Disgusting race-baiter
Did Khan express these sincere sympathies for the black Londoners that Kaba shot, stabbed and terrorised, including the mother of his unborn child?2 -
Some of you may remember a few days ago I posted a YouTube by Asianometry discussing how one of the AIs bottlenecks is chip-based: they can't squeeze the cleverness in. He explored various changes that could improve it. That YouTube is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tmGKTNW8DQ
That YouTube is a year old. Today another person pointed out that a recent hardware innovation by IBM may solve this, which is why their stock is going up. That YouTube is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Irmrp-A-W0I
1 -
very interestingAndy_JS said:"Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says
Sabine Hossenfelder"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwXswyt-zg
0 -
If you're driving a car backwards and forwards, ramming police cars and potentially officers recklessly after being told to stop by armed police then yes, yes you certainly do deserve to die.Theuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.0 -
Greetings from Turkmenistan. Spent this morning at Nisa, World Heritaage Site and residence of Parthian kings.
A central battle point on the Silk Road.
Then onto the new Turkmen carpet museum. If you like oriental carpets, it is magnificent. It also houses the world's largest carpet. If that's your bag.6 -
Photos!!MarqueeMark said:Greetings from Turkmenistan. Spent this morning at Nisa, World Heritaage Site and residence of Parthian kings.
A central battle point on the Silk Road.
Then onto the new Turkmen carpet museum. If you like oriental carpets, it is magnificent. It also houses the world's largest carpet. If that's your bag.3 -
FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.
0 -
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.4 -
You have to justify the shoes somehow...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why you need polymaths like me.viewcode said:
All together now: scientists are experts in their field, which is very narrow, but have no particular expertise outside it.Andy_JS said:"Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says
Sabine Hossenfelder"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwXswyt-zg
0 -
56 constituencies, with 5 overlapping others?viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.1 -
Agree, though old people do hit other road users too.CJtheOptimist said:
Not saying it's right, but maybe it's the perceived difference between a young person being killed who had their whole life still ahead of them, versus an oldie, who's already "had a good innings"Eabhal said:
Oh I don't doubt that at all. It's just curious that the same risk-based approach is not applied to older drivers too.MattW said:
I think the numbers are different enough and distinct enough that it would fly. There are already major differences by attributes - such as medical licences, plus the age restriction itself for getting a licence. The number afaics say restrict males more than females, but that is problematic - see what happened with insurance. Plus a version of Graduated Licences has been in place in NI since ~2016.Eabhal said:
It would be interesting to challenge something like that on age discrimination grounds. Car drivers over the age of 86 are more likely to be KSIed than those aged 17-24. For women, the rate is almost double.MattW said:Interesting from the other day. AA support for graduated driving licences.
Drivers aged under 21 who have just passed their tests should be prevented from carrying passengers of a similar age for their first six months as drivers, the AA has said.
It suggested tougher rules that would also see them handed six penalty points for not wearing a seatbelt during the period - meaning they could lose their licence.
The motoring organisation says the proposal for a particular type of licence targeted at new, young drivers has the potential to prevent 934 serious injuries and save 58 lives on UK roads each year.
Similar measures - known as graduated driving licensing (GDL) - already exist in Northern Ireland. The Department for Transport (DfT) has said it is not currently considering the measures for elsewhere in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c361g6nz5j1o
DFT currently not thinking about it:
A Department for Transport spokesperson said it was not currently considering graduated driving licences and is looking for other ways of keeping young drivers safe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7565nr19eko
There a significant increase in KSI rate starting at age 70, so a SPA linked re-test would be effective, notwithstanding the inevitable howls of outrage from the Telegraph.
I think they are perhaps worried about the extra workload on the DVLA, plus the police. Both also need addressing.0 -
Two national polls out this morning.
Ipsos
Harris 48
Trump 45
Morning Consult
Harris 50
Trump 46
Should calm a few nerves in the Harris camp after the flood of GOP trash polls designed to help Trumps “ Stop the Steal “ narrative .4 -
How does inheritance tax apply to timelords?algarkirk said:
No. It applies to about 28,000 estates per year. That's about 280,000 in 10 years. In 10 years there are about 6,500,000 deaths. Just over 4% of deaths involve estates that pay IHT. Each person just dies the once.StillWaters said:
Isn’t IHT on estates 4% *a year* so ending up at 40% every 10 years (obviously with the benefit of time value of money)algarkirk said:
WRT farms, the budget might tweak a bit in order to deal with non-farmers usiing farms as tax planning; but there will be no major change to the exemption in ordinary 'family farm' cases.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, and when you try to tax wealth, will the wealthy and their assets stay in this country, or leave?
Not all wealth can be moved, of course. Council tax on steroids is possible. Or you could drive farmers into bankruptcy (the pre-election murmuring about imposing inheritance tax on farms might come true).
What there should be (IHT currently only applies to 4% of estates) is a much wider net for IHT, incorporating lifetime gifts and many fewer exemptions, but a much lower rate - more like 5-10% than 40%. The current tweak for homes, which brings the threshold up to £1m for some households but not others, should also go by being incorporated into the current exempt sum.1 -
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.0 -
Cambridge educated former Minister doesn't know how to plug external monitor into her laptop?
Couldn't take work laptop home but emailed documents to personal laptop so she could work off both laptops at same time at home?
Unravelling faster than a cheap knitted jumper...
Clearly bs, given she was previously caught emailing similar docs to Hayes there's a much more plausible explanation.
0 -
In Chicago they probably discharge their guns 65 times each day.Sandpit said:Statistic of the day: There have been 65 incidents at which police have intentionally fired their guns in England and Wales…
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-use-of-firearms-statistics-april-2023-to-march-2024/police-use-of-firearms-statistics-england-and-wales-april-2023-to-march-2024
…in the past DECADE.1 -
I think the video was quite clear. A man known to be armed and violent was attempting to use his vehicle as a weapon, and to smash his way out of a roadblock in front of the armed police, who had clearly identified themselves as such.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
I will disagree with the phraseology of ‘ought villains be killed?’, the question really should be ‘was the officer justified in discharging his firearm towards the suspect?’, a question which the jury took only three hours to answer.
The suspect himself would also have been in no doubt as to how he could expect the armed police to respond in the circumstances.3 -
Yes, I forgot about the vote-splitting states. Bad me.Pro_Rata said:
56 constituencies, with 5 overlapping others?viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.
0 -
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.0 -
"Suella Braverman MP
@SuellaBraverman
I’m supporting @RobertJenrick to be the next leader of the Conservative Party.
We need to rebuild trust on one of the defining issues of our age: the global migration crisis.
Robert’s unequivocal commitment to leaving the ECHR and placing a cap on visas is how we start."
https://x.com/SuellaBraverman/status/18486543808971125180 -
Ipsos is a good pollster, but Morning Consult is 107th on 538's rating.nico679 said:Two national polls out this morning.
Ipsos
Harris 48
Trump 45
Morning Consult
Harris 50
Trump 46
Should calm a few nerves in the Harris camp after the flood of GOP trash polls designed to help Trumps “ Stop the Steal “ narrative .
It's not just the junk pollsters who are showing a tight race. Suffolk, Emerson, and Fox are all very good pollsters. Their latest show Harris leads of 1%, 1%, and -2% respectively.4 -
And, if you subtract about 2.5% from Biden's lead, Trump wins.viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.1 -
Will you behave 🙄 it’s fantasy polls whenever all respondents have to go on is menu of promises, nothing about policies that deliver the promises.HYUFD said:
Jenrick is promising more affordable homes and slashed immigraton, something Rishi notably failed to deliver on.MoonRabbit said:
Oh Stop it will you. 🙄. That’s complete fantasy polling.HYUFD said:
On the polling evidence Badenoch is the weaker candidate.MoonRabbit said:
Yes. But it’s akin to counting the threshold on one hand to being able to count it in two hands and half a foot. Jenrick and Cleverly each got MPs in the final vote around the new threshold. And One Nation Group are now sitting out the rest of the election. How to bring party all together, in cabinet and country is going to be extremely difficult to whoever wins. You notice Jenrick wants wet signatures to his policies to even be allowed to stand again as MP - that’s St Bart’s Day massacre of moderates part two no different than the damage Bonehead Boris done in part one.DecrepiterJohnL said:
New 1922 Committee chief Bob Blackman has advocated doubling the threshold needed to oust leaders.highwayparadise306 said:If Kimi wins how long will it last? It could be to the next election or every couple of months we could have a leadership challenge. Revolving non stop challenge till people become oblivious to it.
Also concerning to me would be if by far the weakest candidate beats the stronger one again in members vote, as that would have a pattern of skin colour to the inexplicable decision.
Electoral Calculus already has a poll saying a Jenrick led Tory party would get a hung parliament and deprive Starmer of his majority.
A Badenoch led Tory party would also make gains but Starmer would still have a small Labour majority of 14 against her
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html
In the real world elections are won on lost on leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - what you are polling doesn’t have any of that. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years. once you shred reputations for economic competence and governmental competence, what a long road back it is from there. The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold, that’s something polling at this point of the electoral cycle does not have built in.
Kemi Badenoch subtly won this at conference week. Maternity pay remarks a mistake? She is doubling down now by adding minimum wage to the burdens on existing business and preventing start ups. The trillion pound a year bill and government burdens on business is already here after 13 years of Conservative government - politicians buying favourable front pages and votes with generous offers paid not by them, but by businesses and future taxpayers - but Starmer’s woke government is only going to make the problems worse and even more obvious, which is why Badenoch is spot on with her pro business, pro productivity platform. The Party needs to move on sharpish from Boris Eff business era.
Meanwhile Jendrick’s One Dimensional platform is all in on Johnny Foreigner being a freeloading terror risk, pull up the drawbridge now before they swamp our housing and public services, take our jobs and turn England into a foreign land.
In voteshare terms Electoral Calculus' poll has a Jenrick led Tories on 23% with Labour on 28% and Reform on 20% and the LDs on 12% and Greens on 11% and a Badenoch led Tories on 22% with Labour on 29% and Reform on 21% and the LDs on 12% and Greens on 10%
So Badenoch gets a slightly lower Tory vote than Jenrick while Labour and Reform do better against Badenoch than Jenrick too with the LD voteshare unchanged regardless of which of them becomes Tory leader
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html
Conservative Party currently has no leader - the crown sitting idle, and whoever puts it on will become a bit different, authority and loyalty based on the crown. But there is no leader, manifesto, policies, answers to tough questions, time viewing the leader and party and policies in place yet for poll respondents to base their answers on, so surely you admit such polling is a bit pie in the sky at this point?
On top of this, a party divided in five houses is not even united in voice yet in offering credible costed solutions to issues - both these things are required in the next few years to stand a chance at the election.0 -
I went for a drive this morning. I didn't drive a 'friends' car that had been used in a shooting yesterday. I didn't get stopped by the police. I didn't then ram police cars to try to escape with no care whether I injured or killed a police officer.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
I arrived happily at work, without being shot in the head.
Funny old world.
I cannot shed a tear for a man who will happily kill others. Those protesting the result of the trial ought to look at themselves.3 -
Harris is up by 1.8% according to 538, compared to 4.5% for Biden in 2020.viewcode said:
Yes, I forgot about the vote-splitting states. Bad me.Pro_Rata said:
56 constituencies, with 5 overlapping others?viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.2 -
As it’s coming up to Remembrance Sunday, pride poppy anyone 😂😂😂😂
https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61jZorOEjZL._AC_SX679_.jpg
0 -
But look at today's posts on here seeking to justify Kaba's shooting because he was a career criminal and not an architect. That's the road we should not want to go down.Sandpit said:
I think the video was quite clear. A man known to be armed and violent was attempting to use his vehicle as a weapon, and to smash his way out of a roadblock in front of the armed police, who had clearly identified themselves as such.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
I will disagree with the phraseology of ‘ought villains be killed?’, the question really should be ‘was the officer justified in discharging his firearm towards the suspect?’, a question which the jury took only three hours to answer.
The suspect himself would also have been in no doubt as to how he could expect the armed police to respond in the circumstances.3 -
Looks great. Sign me up.Taz said:As it’s coming up to Remembrance Sunday, pride poppy anyone 😂😂😂😂
https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61jZorOEjZL._AC_SX679_.jpg0 -
How much is Trump up/down by?Andy_JS said:
Harris is up by 1.8% according to 538, compared to 4.5% for Biden in 2020.viewcode said:
Yes, I forgot about the vote-splitting states. Bad me.Pro_Rata said:
56 constituencies, with 5 overlapping others?viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.1 -
Trials are conducted on the basis of law and evidence. Neither the usual suspects, golf club or rentacrowd, cannot be legislated away.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
Our law provides, and in this case provided, a defence to the charge in the eyes of the jury. A cursory following of the trial rendered this outcome more or less certain (at least to me).
The reasonable belief that you are acting in self defence or the defence of another in a split second moment situation is well provided for by the law. I don't think further work needs to be done.
I doubt if this prosecution should have been brought. Once you had the camera evidence and the evidence of the defence witnesses who were present at the time it was over.4 -
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.1 -
I was muddling it up with the 10 Year Charge @ 6%algarkirk said:
No. It applies to about 28,000 estates per year. That's about 280,000 in 10 years. In 10 years there are about 6,500,000 deaths.StillWaters said:
Isn’t IHT on estates 4% *a year* so ending up at 40% every 10 years (obviously with the benefit of time value of money)algarkirk said:
WRT farms, the budget might tweak a bit in order to deal with non-farmers usiing farms as tax planning; but there will be no major change to the exemption in ordinary 'family farm' cases.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, and when you try to tax wealth, will the wealthy and their assets stay in this country, or leave?
Not all wealth can be moved, of course. Council tax on steroids is possible. Or you could drive farmers into bankruptcy (the pre-election murmuring about imposing inheritance tax on farms might come true).
What there should be (IHT currently only applies to 4% of estates) is a much wider net for IHT, incorporating lifetime gifts and many fewer exemptions, but a much lower rate - more like 5-10% than 40%. The current tweak for homes, which brings the threshold up to £1m for some households but not others, should also go by being incorporated into the current exempt sum.
Just over 4% of deaths involve estates that pay IHT. Each person just dies the once.1 -
Chris Kaba got a life ban. A ban from life.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
Semi-automatically.
Too soon?0 -
Some architects….DecrepiterJohnL said:
But look at today's posts on here seeking to justify Kaba's shooting because he was a career criminal and not an architect. That's the road we should not want to go down.Sandpit said:
I think the video was quite clear. A man known to be armed and violent was attempting to use his vehicle as a weapon, and to smash his way out of a roadblock in front of the armed police, who had clearly identified themselves as such.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
I will disagree with the phraseology of ‘ought villains be killed?’, the question really should be ‘was the officer justified in discharging his firearm towards the suspect?’, a question which the jury took only three hours to answer.
The suspect himself would also have been in no doubt as to how he could expect the armed police to respond in the circumstances.
{safety catch on Browning goes click}1 -
X
You're misreading posts if that's what you've seenDecrepiterJohnL said:
But look at today's posts on here seeking to justify Kaba's shooting because he was a career criminal and not an architect. That's the road we should not want to go down.Sandpit said:
I think the video was quite clear. A man known to be armed and violent was attempting to use his vehicle as a weapon, and to smash his way out of a roadblock in front of the armed police, who had clearly identified themselves as such.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
I will disagree with the phraseology of ‘ought villains be killed?’, the question really should be ‘was the officer justified in discharging his firearm towards the suspect?’, a question which the jury took only three hours to answer.
The suspect himself would also have been in no doubt as to how he could expect the armed police to respond in the circumstances.
3 -
But your original post saiud "now only homes worth over £1 million pay inheritance tax".HYUFD said:
The vast majority of married couples, even home owning married couples, do not have non property assets of around £400,000 or more to take them over the thresholdCarnyx said:
Only married couples with no other assets.HYUFD said:
They are for married couplesalgarkirk said:
There are some egregious errors in this comment, but DYOR. If anyone believes that only houses worth over £1m are liable to IHT they might have a horrible shock.HYUFD said:
Making most homes liable for inheritance tax would be hugely unpopular regardless of the rate, the family home is otherwise exempt for a married couplealgarkirk said:
WRT farms, the budget might tweak a bit in order to deal with non-farmers usiing farms as tax planning; but there will be no major change to the exemption in ordinary 'family farm' cases.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, and when you try to tax wealth, will the wealthy and their assets stay in this country, or leave?
Not all wealth can be moved, of course. Council tax on steroids is possible. Or you could drive farmers into bankruptcy (the pre-election murmuring about imposing inheritance tax on farms might come true).
What there should be (IHT currently only applies to 4% of estates) is a much wider net for IHT, incorporating lifetime gifts and many fewer exemptions, but a much lower rate - more like 5-10% than 40%. The current tweak for homes, which brings the threshold up to £1m for some households but not others, should also go by being incorporated into the current exempt sum.
That's flat wrong and it's all part of the Tory lying about IHT applying to many people were it not for the kind benevolent Conservatives.1 -
But this was explicitly NOT what the police officer was tried on. The information about what a shitstain Kaba was was kept from the public (and thus the jury). If you do what he did (in the limited sense of driving the car linked to a gun crime, then ramming police cars to try to escape with no regard to what harm you might cause, then you take your chance.DecrepiterJohnL said:
But look at today's posts on here seeking to justify Kaba's shooting because he was a career criminal and not an architect. That's the road we should not want to go down.Sandpit said:
I think the video was quite clear. A man known to be armed and violent was attempting to use his vehicle as a weapon, and to smash his way out of a roadblock in front of the armed police, who had clearly identified themselves as such.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
I will disagree with the phraseology of ‘ought villains be killed?’, the question really should be ‘was the officer justified in discharging his firearm towards the suspect?’, a question which the jury took only three hours to answer.
The suspect himself would also have been in no doubt as to how he could expect the armed police to respond in the circumstances.3 -
It didn't 'go wrong' the fire-arms officer believed that Kaba was likely armed and was trying to harm or kill colleagues in order to escape.Eabhal said:
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.1 -
I don't think this one will have legs. The Guardian isn't going full on, and its analysis by Vikram Dodd yesterday evening managed to make no reference to the defence witnesses but went off track at some length to fill up space.turbotubbs said:
I went for a drive this morning. I didn't drive a 'friends' car that had been used in a shooting yesterday. I didn't get stopped by the police. I didn't then ram police cars to try to escape with no care whether I injured or killed a police officer.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
I arrived happily at work, without being shot in the head.
Funny old world.
I cannot shed a tear for a man who will happily kill others. Those protesting the result of the trial ought to look at themselves.0 -
Ultimately, you can only give people a choice - surrendered or…Eabhal said:
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.0 -
.
I don't think any reasonable person would disagree with the verdict, on seeing the evidence.algarkirk said:
Trials are conducted on the basis of law and evidence. Neither the usual suspects, golf club or rentacrowd, cannot be legislated away.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
Our law provides, and in this case provided, a defence to the charge in the eyes of the jury. A cursory following of the trial rendered this outcome more or less certain (at least to me).
The reasonable belief that you are acting in self defence or the defence of another in a split second moment situation is well provided for by the law. I don't think further work needs to be done.
I doubt if this prosecution should have been brought. Once you had the camera evidence and the evidence of the defence witnesses who were present at the time it was over.
And that has absolutely nothing to do with anyone's view of how bad a person Kaba might, or might not have been.
But contrast with the US, where Trump is campaigning on giving the police absolute immunity.
I vastly prefer our system, where they have to justify their actions.5 -
Anecdotely I've experienced the same. The ones I know "should" be leaning Badenoch too but aren't, really. On the publicly available evidence these prices are wrong and this should be a coin flip. YouGov (or any reputable) poll, if it's public, could be very useful. While green on either, I'm heavily overweight Jenrick atm, much as I hate the bastard.HYUFD said:From the conversations I have had with Tory members and the Yougov poll I expect it to be the closest Conservative leadership election ever. Probably it will even be as close as the 2010 Labour leadership election when Ed Miliband scraped a shock win over his more centrist brother David which started Labour's shift back left which continued further under Corbyn until Starmer won.
So I would certainly not rule out a shock Jenrick win and Badenoch defeat.1 -
Indeed. Just as Kaba's abominable record was witheld, rightly, from the jury because it had no relation to what was in Blake's mind at the time, so the later discovery that Kaba was unarmed is completely irrelevant to Blake's state of mind and intention at the moment he fired.turbotubbs said:
It didn't 'go wrong' the fire-arms officer believed that Kaba was likely armed and was trying to harm or kill colleagues in order to escape.Eabhal said:
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.1 -
FPT:
Oy you lot, this was HILARIOUS, especially for 10 past 5!Luckyguy1983 said:
Let's hope he wears a little more in future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Source of quatation?Casino_Royale said:
They went Woke, and ignored their own base. Sound familiar?SeaShantyIrish2 said:In New Brunswick, the incumbent Tories are more than losing, they are getting a right kicking by the voters.
Liberal Party
158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020)
Progressive Conservative Party
114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11)
Green Party
44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
"Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance."
Note that "in the wake of" doing a LOT of lifting, for example implying that ALL of NB Progressive Conservative governing caucus resignations/retirements due to anti-Wokeism?
Any actual evidence that PC base is actually as anti-gay/trans as you are? OR that the today's election was lost because PC's "ignored their own base".
It appears they may have lost by catering toooooooo much to their base!
More recent polling (from this summer) shows that BIG ISSUE for voters was/is health care.
https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-2651-N.B.-Political-July-Omni-Populated-report.pdf
Fun fact: while new Premier Susan Holt affirmed her support for LBGT New Brunswickers in her victory speech tonight, her husband stood behind her . . . wearing a large rainbow flag belt-buckle.0 -
No. If you look at what both parties polled at the last election, the joined up score for them both as %, your historical comparison is completely bogus. This is a different landscape, where if you are right, Labour polling sub thirty, history wouldn’t have them still ahead of the Tories even more sub thirty.
The only real question in this electoral landscape is once you shred reputations for economic competence and governmental competence, how long is the road back to winning general elections from there. the “Winter of Discontent” narrative played at all 80’s and 90’s elections.
When it comes to general election 4 or 5 years away, the actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold, that’s something polling at this point of the electoral cycle does not have built in. And a further worry. How many conservatives permanently lost to other parties due to ongoing Brexit divides?
It’s is very funny watching PBers get wound up by the “this Labour governmrnt on course to be disastrous one term government” posts. 😄 Leon is a master of such things. But it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.
Conservatives need to see this situation And hard work ahead very seriously, hard headedly, with some alarm about the mess the party is still in - A one nation candidate couldn’t even make final two ☹️
3 -
The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.0
-
I should have said "ahead by" to avoid confusion.viewcode said:
How much is Trump up/down by?Andy_JS said:
Harris is up by 1.8% according to 538, compared to 4.5% for Biden in 2020.viewcode said:
Yes, I forgot about the vote-splitting states. Bad me.Pro_Rata said:
56 constituencies, with 5 overlapping others?viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.0 -
Mr. Eagles, not sure you're a polymath so much as a multi-numpty.
0 -
Funnily enough, he was named because media organisations made a successful legal application. I’m sure the Mail weren’t one of those organisations but any that were involved should be named as they like openness so much.Foss said:The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.
2 -
The judge that lifted the order and the bod at the CPS who decided to go for a murder charge need sacking tbh. Thank goodness for common sense from the jury.boulay said:
Funnily enough, he was named because media organisations made a successful legal application. I’m sure the Mail weren’t one of those organisations but any that were involved should be named as they like openness so much.Foss said:The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.
3 -
I don't think there was any evidence presented that the fire arms officer ;turbotubbs said:
It didn't 'go wrong' the fire-arms officer believed that Kaba was likely armed and was trying to harm or kill colleagues in order to escape.Eabhal said:
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.
1) Knew it was Chris Kaba.
2) Thought the occupant was likely armed.
It's almost inherent that when an unarmed man is shot dead by the police that the operation didn't go to plan.0 -
And frequently do. Very true.Eabhal said:
Agree, though old people do hit other road users too.CJtheOptimist said:
Not saying it's right, but maybe it's the perceived difference between a young person being killed who had their whole life still ahead of them, versus an oldie, who's already "had a good innings"Eabhal said:
Oh I don't doubt that at all. It's just curious that the same risk-based approach is not applied to older drivers too.MattW said:
I think the numbers are different enough and distinct enough that it would fly. There are already major differences by attributes - such as medical licences, plus the age restriction itself for getting a licence. The number afaics say restrict males more than females, but that is problematic - see what happened with insurance. Plus a version of Graduated Licences has been in place in NI since ~2016.Eabhal said:
It would be interesting to challenge something like that on age discrimination grounds. Car drivers over the age of 86 are more likely to be KSIed than those aged 17-24. For women, the rate is almost double.MattW said:Interesting from the other day. AA support for graduated driving licences.
Drivers aged under 21 who have just passed their tests should be prevented from carrying passengers of a similar age for their first six months as drivers, the AA has said.
It suggested tougher rules that would also see them handed six penalty points for not wearing a seatbelt during the period - meaning they could lose their licence.
The motoring organisation says the proposal for a particular type of licence targeted at new, young drivers has the potential to prevent 934 serious injuries and save 58 lives on UK roads each year.
Similar measures - known as graduated driving licensing (GDL) - already exist in Northern Ireland. The Department for Transport (DfT) has said it is not currently considering the measures for elsewhere in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c361g6nz5j1o
DFT currently not thinking about it:
A Department for Transport spokesperson said it was not currently considering graduated driving licences and is looking for other ways of keeping young drivers safe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7565nr19eko
There a significant increase in KSI rate starting at age 70, so a SPA linked re-test would be effective, notwithstanding the inevitable howls of outrage from the Telegraph.
I think they are perhaps worried about the extra workload on the DVLA, plus the police. Both also need addressing.0 -
"The curious tale of Kamala Harris and the Irish slave owner
The US presidential candidate is believed to have links to a town in County Antrim but whereas transatlantic ties are normally a cause for celebration, in the town of Ballymoney there is a strange unwillingness to embrace its most famous daughter."
https://news.sky.com/story/the-curious-tale-of-kamala-harris-and-the-irish-slave-owner-132010080 -
They were following the car because it was used as a getaway for a shooting in Brixton the day beforekenObi said:
I don't think there was any evidence presented that the fire arms officer ;turbotubbs said:
It didn't 'go wrong' the fire-arms officer believed that Kaba was likely armed and was trying to harm or kill colleagues in order to escape.Eabhal said:
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.
1) Knew it was Chris Kaba.
2) Thought the occupant was likely armed.
It's almost inherent that when an unarmed man is shot dead by the police that the operation didn't go to plan.2 -
6% every ten years is a tax for U.K. trusts that property owning families like the Duke of Westminster use. A 6% inheritance tax on land and business outside a trust once every generation would be a way for the government to increase revenue. Would be survivable as the farms and business could borrow the money without assets having to be sold.StillWaters said:
I was muddling it up with the 10 Year Charge @ 6%algarkirk said:
No. It applies to about 28,000 estates per year. That's about 280,000 in 10 years. In 10 years there are about 6,500,000 deaths.StillWaters said:
Isn’t IHT on estates 4% *a year* so ending up at 40% every 10 years (obviously with the benefit of time value of money)algarkirk said:
WRT farms, the budget might tweak a bit in order to deal with non-farmers usiing farms as tax planning; but there will be no major change to the exemption in ordinary 'family farm' cases.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, and when you try to tax wealth, will the wealthy and their assets stay in this country, or leave?
Not all wealth can be moved, of course. Council tax on steroids is possible. Or you could drive farmers into bankruptcy (the pre-election murmuring about imposing inheritance tax on farms might come true).
What there should be (IHT currently only applies to 4% of estates) is a much wider net for IHT, incorporating lifetime gifts and many fewer exemptions, but a much lower rate - more like 5-10% than 40%. The current tweak for homes, which brings the threshold up to £1m for some households but not others, should also go by being incorporated into the current exempt sum.
Just over 4% of deaths involve estates that pay IHT. Each person just dies the once.
0 -
Mexicanpete said: "This has been the hallmark of this election. The Washington Post fact checking Harris and not fact checking Trump."
Glenn Kessler has caught the Loser for more than 30K falsehoods -- and is still on the case: Here's his latest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fact-checker/2 -
The answer to the 'moving wealth abroad' threat is a UK FATCA: every British citizen should pay UK taxes on their income and assets wherever they live, work or hold those assets, offsetting any local taxes they've paid.eek said:
Haven't we covered this multiple times before - we always end up with a tax on property prices because it's the only thing that can't be quickly moved abroad.Benpointer said:
There is a simple solution staring us all in the face: tax the £20tn of wealth in the country.eek said:
Problem is there are whole parts of the day to day running of the country where things have been cut to the bone already.TimS said:
The latest fiscal numbers are a bit better than expected thanks to slightly higher tax receipts, even while this year to date has been worse than forecast.Leon said:Not enough attention is being given to the very real possibility that this government simply runs out of money
But we’ve already run out of money. The outgoing government tried to bribe the voters with two very expensive NI cuts which have used up the entire fiscal headroom. The new government refusing to reverse these leaves us in a pretty poor position. Not a precarious one - our government bond yields aren’t doing anything worrying and our deficit position is better than several peers, so much so that the pound has been rising.
But there’s not going to be money for a spending bonanza anytime soon. It’s another decade of austerity ahead. Chronic austerity.
Court sitting days have reduced again while court cases are now being scheduled well into 2026...
Unfortunately, no one seems clever enough to do it.
Although that does remind me why I preferred the easier solution of just taxing based on estimated property value rather than land value based taxes...
Those who love money more than they love their country can f*ck right off. And apply for a visa* whenever they wish to visit the UK (an application I'd instruct UKVI to routinely reject on the basis of 'they chose to leave'.)
0 -
13 council by-elections this week.
Only 3 Reform candidates. Okay. Some may not be natural territory but I thought they may have stood in more.
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1848682903418315180?s=610 -
The vehicle was being stopped explicitly because it was linked to a gun incident, hence the 'likely armed'. I wasn't suggesting that the officer thought it was Kaba - he thought the driver was likely armed (see point above). I referred to the driver as Kaba because that was his name.kenObi said:
I don't think there was any evidence presented that the fire arms officer ;turbotubbs said:
It didn't 'go wrong' the fire-arms officer believed that Kaba was likely armed and was trying to harm or kill colleagues in order to escape.Eabhal said:
I suppose I'd much rather Kaba had been on trial for dangerous driving (and other stuff) than shot, with the police officer never put in a position where he feared for his life.Sandpit said:
Well this guy definitely got a life ban.Eabhal said:
Quite. Driving a car at pedestrians is akin to charging at someone with a knife.Malmesbury said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyly5122yeoTheuniondivvie said:
How far did the car move and at what speed before the police shot Kaba?BlancheLivermore said:
The "unarmed" man was using a big car as a weapon against the armed policeTheuniondivvie said:
Istr there was a concerted attempt in certain quarters to depict Floyd as a druggy stain on society who somehow 'deserved' to be choked to death, and no great loss in any case.*Leon said:Oh
“Chris Kaba was a violent gangster who shot rival in nightclub
Convicted criminal was one of key players in London’s most feared and dangerous gangs”
“The man shot dead by police in south London two years ago was a violent, armed gangster who gunned down a rival in a packed nightclub just days before he was killed, it can now be disclosed.”
Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/22/chris-kaba-gunned-down-rival-oval-space-nightclub/
The guardian’s attempt to kick off a George Floyd narrative now looks a little… awkward
Is there a particular type of person that deserves to be shot and killed while unarmed?
*I see that meme is still alive and well.
Should armed police accept being run over by criminals who don't have guns?
A large car is a lethal weapon. Come to think of it, there are probably more *murders* committed using a car than a gun, in the U.K.
This might be one of the few cases where a jury has made the same equivalence. Using a vehicle as a weapon should come with an automatic life ban, imo.
The reason that so few police officers use their weapons in the UK is because they are so good at de-escalation and judging when best to intervene, reducing the risk to everyone. There is a non-zero chance that round hits an innocent bystander, or the police officer does get hit and killed by Kaba.
Even with this result, I'd hope there is a proper investigation to work out why it went so wrong in this case.
1) Knew it was Chris Kaba.
2) Thought the occupant was likely armed.
It's almost inherent that when an unarmed man is shot dead by the police that the operation didn't go to plan.0 -
Mr. Pointer, importing a policy from the slave state of Eritrea is not necessarily a sign it's one brimming with virtue.
Edited extra bit: it's especially ironic to be debating this point given my own situation is currently closer to the pre-success of the Four Yorkshiremen than most people here, but there we are. Also, the spellchecker flagging "Yorkshiremen" is clearly racist.0 -
-
"@ITVNewsPolitics
'Prison is not working at the moment'
Justice Secretary @ShabanaMahmood says the government is 'expanding punishment outside of prison'
The government has announced it's reviewing sentencing to address the crisis in jails"
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/18486545549858984930 -
We are all descended from slaves and we're all descended from slave-owners.Andy_JS said:"The curious tale of Kamala Harris and the Irish slave owner
The US presidential candidate is believed to have links to a town in County Antrim but whereas transatlantic ties are normally a cause for celebration, in the town of Ballymoney there is a strange unwillingness to embrace its most famous daughter."
https://news.sky.com/story/the-curious-tale-of-kamala-harris-and-the-irish-slave-owner-132010081 -
Jokey reform ideas removed from NHS website
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg0g33n3g6o
But not before Wes Streeting had revealed a major Cabinet split: a recommendation for a Wetherspoons pub in every hospital had been "sadly vetoed by the chancellor".0 -
Yorkshirepeople, Morris, Yorkshirepeople.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, importing a policy from the slave state of Eritrea is not necessarily a sign it's one brimming with virtue.
Edited extra bit: it's especially ironic to be debating this point given my own situation is currently closer to the pre-success of the Four Yorkshiremen than most people here, but there we are. Also, the spellchecker flagging "Yorkshiremen" is clearly racist.
PS What's the policy from Eritrea? - I'm curious.0 -
Andy_JS said:
I should have said "ahead by" to avoid confusion.viewcode said:
How much is Trump up/down by?Andy_JS said:
Harris is up by 1.8% according to 538, compared to 4.5% for Biden in 2020.viewcode said:
Yes, I forgot about the vote-splitting states. Bad me.Pro_Rata said:
56 constituencies, with 5 overlapping others?viewcode said:FPT
In short: Uniform National Swing (UNS) spread over 50+1 constituencies. Hmmm (digs out swingometer)rcs1000 said:This is a really good piece from Nate Silver: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150143916?source=queue
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.- Harris lead = D24-R24 = 1.8
- Biden lead = D20-R20 = 4.5
- D24-R24 - D20+R20 = 1.8-4.5 = -2.7
- (D24-D20) - (R24-R20) = -2.7
- Harris delta - Trump delta = -2.7, where Harris delta = D24-D20 and Trump delta = R24-R20
- Swing = |Harris delta| + |Trump delta|
Damn. I''ll look it up on 538. Do you have a link plz?1 - Harris lead = D24-R24 = 1.8
-
Where's the edit button gone?!
Edit: at least it's gone from PB.com0 -
Would it be in Public Record somewhere which media organisations took action to ensure they could name the Officer?Pulpstar said:
The judge that lifted the order and the bod at the CPS who decided to go for a murder charge need sacking tbh. Thank goodness for common sense from the jury.boulay said:
Funnily enough, he was named because media organisations made a successful legal application. I’m sure the Mail weren’t one of those organisations but any that were involved should be named as they like openness so much.Foss said:The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.
Really do think we should know which of them thought their stories were more important than a police officer’s safety and don’t have to put up with their crocodile tears if something bad happens to him or his family.2 -
This is awfully good, and not just because I like the physics references;
In a chaotic election parties and partisans can be tempted to pick the subplots best flatter their prejudices. Was this the biggest landslide in a generation? Yes. Was it also the most fragile landslide in ever, driven as much by divided and weak opponents as a strong victor? Also yes. Was Tory defeat driven by a split right? Yes. Was Tory defeat driven by losing their moderate heartlands? Also yes. Complex and variable outcomes can be cherry picked to support any argument. Choose your own adventure. All of them contain grants of truth, but none of them is the whole picture. Chaotic elections resist simple one line summary and “just one trick” responses are unlikely to work.
https://swingometer.substack.com/p/electoral-chaos-theory-1-from-order
The small thing I would add is that, although chaos allows for crazy things to happen, the
big things are still the big things, most of the time. The art is identifying what they are...
0 -
Mr. Pointer, to be fair, Africa's answer to North Korea has a policy worse than yours. But quite similar.
I don't think they have the off-setting aspect you included, otherwise they require those working overseas to pay tax to Eritrea.
It's barbaric, backward, and indefensible.
The USA does much the same thing.0 -
Well worth listening to the R4 Today discussion on this from this morning, a brilliant gotcha moment from Conservative former Home Office Spad.Andy_JS said:"@ITVNewsPolitics
'Prison is not working at the moment'
Justice Secretary @ShabanaMahmood says the government is 'expanding punishment outside of prison'
The government has announced it's reviewing sentencing to address the crisis in jails"
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1848654554985898493
The policy to stop using short sentences will result in more burden on the probation service which we left on the point of collapse as well.0 -
Er... the offsetting is obviously key. US FATCA allows offsetting IIRC.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, to be fair, Africa's answer to North Korea has a policy worse than yours. But quite similar.
I don't think they have the off-setting aspect you included, otherwise they require those working overseas to pay tax to Eritrea.
It's barbaric, backward, and indefensible.
The USA does much the same thing.
What is indefensible about being expected to pay your share of running the state whose citizenship you enjoy the benefits of?0 -
It is wonderful that a "one nation" (how dare these careerist creeps claim the mantle of Disraeli?) Tory didn't make the final two. The party needs to get behind a new leader and new set of policies, and if the one-nation candidates don't like it, where does that leave the 'unity' and 'party loyalty' they constantly invoke when their faction is in control?MoonRabbit said:No. If you look at what both parties polled at the last election, the joined up score for them both as %, your historical comparison is completely bogus. This is a different landscape, where if you are right, Labour polling sub thirty, history wouldn’t have them still ahead of the Tories even more sub thirty.
The only real question in this electoral landscape is once you shred reputations for economic competence and governmental competence, how long is the road back to winning general elections from there. the “Winter of Discontent” narrative played at all 80’s and 90’s elections.
When it comes to general election 4 or 5 years away, the actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold, that’s something polling at this point of the electoral cycle does not have built in. And a further worry. How many conservatives permanently lost to other parties due to ongoing Brexit divides?
It’s is very funny watching PBers get wound up by the “this Labour governmrnt on course to be disastrous one term government” posts. 😄 Leon is a master of such things. But it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.
Conservatives need to see this situation And hard work ahead very seriously, hard headedly, with some alarm about the mess the party is still in - A one nation candidate couldn’t even make final two ☹️1 -
"The English county facing the biggest financial ‘black hole’
Even in relatively prosperous Hampshire, the cost of providing social care is swallowing up funding for everything else" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/3a42a022-a374-4c6b-8dbf-46db9cb7073f0 -
The thing that really spooked me was Tipp – yes, it might come from a GOP source, but it was spot on last time. It is a very reliable pollster. It had swung to a 2pt Trump lead from a 4pt Harris lead in the space of a week.nico679 said:Two national polls out this morning.
Ipsos
Harris 48
Trump 45
Morning Consult
Harris 50
Trump 46
Should calm a few nerves in the Harris camp after the flood of GOP trash polls designed to help Trumps “ Stop the Steal “ narrative .
This morning, it was back to a tie. Suggests that there might have been a very Trumpy (outlier?) sample last week which is now existing the tracker?1 -
Dorset, and I suspect quite a few other counties, have slipped into the practice of trying to claw back outstanding social care costs from the relatives of deceased residents who have died penniless.Andy_JS said:"The English county facing the biggest financial ‘black hole’
Even in relatively prosperous Hampshire, the cost of providing social care is swallowing up funding for everything else" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/3a42a022-a374-4c6b-8dbf-46db9cb7073f
I had to point out to the council finance department last week that the debt dies with the individual if there is no estate to pay it.0 -
I took a quick read of the other content on TIPP - the stuff published along with their tracker poll. It's wall-to-wall Trumpist drivel. So, ok, their numbers might be untainted but ... well let's just say I'm not taking it as the King James bible.Anabobazina said:
The thing that really spooked me was Tipp – yes, it might come from a GOP source, but it was spot on last time. It is a very reliable pollster. It had swung to a 2pt Trump lead from a 4pt Harris lead in the space of a week.nico679 said:Two national polls out this morning.
Ipsos
Harris 48
Trump 45
Morning Consult
Harris 50
Trump 46
Should calm a few nerves in the Harris camp after the flood of GOP trash polls designed to help Trumps “ Stop the Steal “ narrative .
This morning, it was back to a tie. Suggests that there might have been a very Trumpy (outlier?) sample last week which is now existing the tracker?1 -
Anecdotally, I have had the same experience.Dumbosaurus said:
Anecdotely I've experienced the same. The ones I know "should" be leaning Badenoch too but aren't, really. On the publicly available evidence these prices are wrong and this should be a coin flip. YouGov (or any reputable) poll, if it's public, could be very useful. While green on either, I'm heavily overweight Jenrick atm, much as I hate the bastard.HYUFD said:From the conversations I have had with Tory members and the Yougov poll I expect it to be the closest Conservative leadership election ever. Probably it will even be as close as the 2010 Labour leadership election when Ed Miliband scraped a shock win over his more centrist brother David which started Labour's shift back left which continued further under Corbyn until Starmer won.
So I would certainly not rule out a shock Jenrick win and Badenoch defeat.
Indeed, one chap who was strong Kemi ended up telling me he voted Jenrick.
I think Jenrick 52, Kemi 481 -
None of Khan’s statements would be inaccurate if you assume that Kana was a bad person who *caused* the “anger pain and fear”Leon said:Reminder of what Sadiq khan said about Kaba last year
“My thoughts are with Chris Kaba’s loved ones today. His death has had a huge impact on Londoners, and in particular Black Londoners. Anger, pain and fear has been felt across communities, along with a desire for change and justice.”
https://x.com/sadiqkhan/status/1641446784009654281?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Disgusting race-baiter
Did Khan express these sincere sympathies for the black Londoners that Kaba shot, stabbed and terrorised, including the mother of his unborn child?
0 -
Yes, that's fair and valid. However, last time it was spot on (albeit in partnership with Investors' Business Daily, which no longer sponsors the survey).kinabalu said:
I took a quick read of the other content on TIPP - the stuff published along with their tracker poll. It's wall-to-wall Trumpist drivel. So, ok, their numbers might be untainted but ... well let's just say I'm not taking it as the King James bible.Anabobazina said:
The thing that really spooked me was Tipp – yes, it might come from a GOP source, but it was spot on last time. It is a very reliable pollster. It had swung to a 2pt Trump lead from a 4pt Harris lead in the space of a week.nico679 said:Two national polls out this morning.
Ipsos
Harris 48
Trump 45
Morning Consult
Harris 50
Trump 46
Should calm a few nerves in the Harris camp after the flood of GOP trash polls designed to help Trumps “ Stop the Steal “ narrative .
This morning, it was back to a tie. Suggests that there might have been a very Trumpy (outlier?) sample last week which is now existing the tracker?1 -
A while back I listened to a policing podcast where one of the guest officers talked about his time in the force. He said he had fired his gun a handful of times a year. For another colleague it was a weekly thing, whilst one colleague - another beat officer - had never fired theirs in anger. All had similar aspects to their careers.Andy_JS said:
In Chicago they probably discharge their guns 65 times each day.Sandpit said:Statistic of the day: There have been 65 incidents at which police have intentionally fired their guns in England and Wales…
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-use-of-firearms-statistics-april-2023-to-march-2024/police-use-of-firearms-statistics-england-and-wales-april-2023-to-march-2024
…in the past DECADE.
It just made me think how mixed policing is in one force in the states, let alone amongst the thousands of forces scattered around the country. Training matters.2 -
Bobby B´stard could be the coup de grace for the Tories...Dumbosaurus said:
Anecdotely I've experienced the same. The ones I know "should" be leaning Badenoch too but aren't, really. On the publicly available evidence these prices are wrong and this should be a coin flip. YouGov (or any reputable) poll, if it's public, could be very useful. While green on either, I'm heavily overweight Jenrick atm, much as I hate the bastard.HYUFD said:From the conversations I have had with Tory members and the Yougov poll I expect it to be the closest Conservative leadership election ever. Probably it will even be as close as the 2010 Labour leadership election when Ed Miliband scraped a shock win over his more centrist brother David which started Labour's shift back left which continued further under Corbyn until Starmer won.
So I would certainly not rule out a shock Jenrick win and Badenoch defeat.1 -
Musk's lottery could be breaking electoral law:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/15/opinion/thepoint#musk-breaking-voting-law0 -
On the other hand, if you are penniless and desperate, what else are you going to do?Benpointer said:
Dorset, and I suspect quite a few other counties, have slipped into the practice of trying to claw back outstanding social care costs from the relatives of deceased residents who have died penniless.Andy_JS said:"The English county facing the biggest financial ‘black hole’
Even in relatively prosperous Hampshire, the cost of providing social care is swallowing up funding for everything else" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/3a42a022-a374-4c6b-8dbf-46db9cb7073f
I had to point out to the council finance department last week that the debt dies with the individual if there is no estate to pay it.
And whilst the first tranche of broke councils had done various visibly silly things, the next batch will probably be prudent councils (so little fat to trim) beaten by the Micawber rule. I think there are about twenty that were given a "can you hold it in until we get to the service station past the election" letoff last year.
Yet more prawns stuffed behind the radiator by the last lot.1 -
This is very true, but the context - presumably known to the police - that the car had been involved in a firearms incident and, possibly, that the driver could well be armed will have changed their appreciation of risk in the situation where the driver is using violence to attempt to escape (either that a firearm could well be present and might be used or that the driver would likely be willing to run down an officer).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ought villains really to be killed on the basis of whether they were armed in the past or will be in the future, and not on the basis of whether they are armed and threatening right now? What would Arnie say?Sandpit said:
Wonder if the Mayor of London might wish to revise his statement from yesterday, in light of new information released by the court..?Leon said:“Budding architect turning his life around”
Reality:
“Kaba’s criminal record dated back to the age of 13, but by his late teens he had graduated from petty crime to serious violence with convictions for stabbings and grievous bodily harm.”
There needs to be more work done on providing a reasonable belief justification for the police, not the golf club reaction, who cares? He was a wrong 'un anyway.
Which does not in any way contradict what you are saying, of course - the context feeds into the reasonable belief of being at imminent risk, in addition to the immediate facts on the ground.1 -
Are the chevrons and the circle on the flag the latest evolution of the pride flag? I guess they cover everything after LGBT?Mexicanpete said:
Looks great. Sign me up.Taz said:As it’s coming up to Remembrance Sunday, pride poppy anyone 😂😂😂😂
https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61jZorOEjZL._AC_SX679_.jpg
0 -
But I'm afraid Trump has somehow created a brand where he can lie with impunity.Jim_Miller said:Mexicanpete said: "This has been the hallmark of this election. The Washington Post fact checking Harris and not fact checking Trump."
Glenn Kessler has caught the Loser for more than 30K falsehoods -- and is still on the case: Here's his latest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fact-checker/0
