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11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances – politicalbetting.com
11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances – politicalbetting.com
On Saturday I did partake in a YouGov poll of Tory members, the last poll had Badenoch defeating Jenrick by the cursed ratio of 52% to 48%. If a new poll shows something similar or Jenrick ahead then I’d expect this market to be jolted.
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https://x.com/mrhenrymorris/status/1848011342944309508
One is a high stakes election that's too close to call; the other, only a few obsessive even care about.
I'll leave it for others to decide which is which.
Shocked.
SCOOP:
Remember the baseless conspiracy being pushed on [Twitter] last week about Tim Walz abusing a former student?
Turns out, it came from Russia...
https://x.com/daithaigilbert/status/1848441852422479972
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/new-brunswick/2024/results/
When staying in a £1500 a night 5 star Ryokan in central Kyoto, try not to nod off due to acute jet lag while holding a glass of red wine, which then spills all over their exclusive designer tatami mats
It's chaos on here this morning
Oh.
I know the Americans get a bit confused on that point, but as good Brits we shouldn't.
Public sector net borrowing excluding banks stood at £79.6bn in the six months to September, which was £1.2bn more the same point last year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Suella Braverman forwarded government documents to her private email accounts at least 127 times while serving as attorney general, in a potential breach of the ministerial code.
The Conservative former cabinet minister routinely forwarded correspondence, with at least 290 documents attached, when she was the government’s top legal officer between 2021 and 2022, according to a freedom of information request.
Ministers are banned from sharing sensitive emails and documents about government business with their private accounts because weaker security means they are at greater risk from unauthorised access.
After an 18-month transparency battle by the Times, a tribunal judge forced the attorney general’s office (AGO) to disclose details of Braverman’s use of her private email account while in government. It is not known whether she forwarded sensitive or official documents.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/21/suella-braverman-government-documents-private-email?CMP=share_btn_url
The argument is very simple. Let me spell it out for you.
1. There are a large number of people in America who have lives that suck and they see no way out
2. Trump is offering them a simplistic solution that is very unlikely to work
3. That is appealing to them so they support him
4. In order to address this the Democrats need to offer proper effective solutions
5. They are not doing this, but instead are focusing on issues that have more of a cultural edge to them (“bigoted crap” is a value judgement so not helpful)
6. Therefore the Democrats will not win
The fact that Trump is offering a different flavour of bigoted crap doesn’t disprove @another_richard’s argument. Bigoted crap is not necessarily fungible
"Central government tax receipts grew strongly (and cost of actually borrowing the money is down), but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs."
e.g
"Central government spending on providing public services and benefits continue to grow year-on-year, with this month’s combined costs being £4.0 bn more than in July last year. These increases were partially offset by a £1.0 bn year-on-year reduction in debt interest payable."
I’ve done worse though. I was once staying in an Airbnb cottage in the middle of Dartmoor which had just been extensively refitted - and luxuriously so - with pure thick white carpeting in the upstairs cottage bedroom
I was bringing up a bottle of red to drink in the bedroom, tripped on the final steps, and the entire bottle went all over the carpet, staining the whole thing crimson
It wasn’t a good moment when I went to tell the owner. I think he was expecting a modest little patch that could be fixed
Then he saw
No surprise, she was absolutely clueless about her legal obligations as a Minister,, and her a Cambridge educated lawyer.
Or is that too American? Which is 100% wrong ‘un…..
Or is that too American? Which is 100% wrong ‘un…..
Take the example of Flint whose problems were first covered in 992 by Michael Moore - nothing has changed and things have got worse even though there have been numerous attempts to fix things.
5 I don't think is cultural edge stuff - it's been things like abortion which should have been a dealt issue but the Republicans have managed to create issues.
As for who will win - I haven't got a clue, there is no dataset or opinion polls that looks valid so I'm not going near the market until the night of polling..
They are calamitous. Worst. Government. Ever
It’s trivial to configure this on a mail server.
The problem is a combination of it taking time to have an effect and insufficient emphasis on what is happening. Should have been buying a wall of ads for this, starting a while back.
So I can easily see Trump creating a trade war by imposing massive tariffs as he has often suggested because he doesn't know why it's a stupid idea. Remember Trump only sees winners and losers and doesn't under that it's possible that both sides can do better out of a carefully managed deal..
'Perhaps if Harris and Walz stuck to the issues instead of spouting bigoted crap they would be more likely to win.'
My response was that if that was the case Trump, who does not (contrary to your post) ever address a single issue directly but instead spouts 'bigoted crap,' would have lost.
So your argument whether simple or not is irrelevant.
If the Dems do lose we have to look elsewhere for the causes.
Minister: we need to release prisoners early
Officials: well they could either plan a accelerated early release programme or just pick some prisoners who meet the criteria and give them 24 hours notice (I believe some have been released the same day).
My belief is the same happened with Windrush. The instruction from Government was not to tolerate illegal immigration. Fair enough it is after all a crime. What did the Home Office do? Targeted a load of people who almost certainly had the right to remain, and had been happily living in the UK for 50 years in some cases, but wouldn't find it easy to produce the paperwork.
So I would certainly not rule out a shock Jenrick win and Badenoch defeat.
We are not yet at the stage reached in France in 1786 when Calonne did have to tell Louis XVI there was literally no money left.
The much bigger risk is that as the debt pile rises and productivity remains low we have to pay much more to service the debt, which in turn forces cuts in government spending in other areas.
As a no-doubt well-paid lawyer (and rightly so) you have a strange belief that effective public service can be delivered without paying a reasonable wage. Yes there are other things wrong, but Government has the same need as the private sector to recruit and retain staff.
moderate Republican like
Haley or Bush Snr but Trump
is not a normal or moderate
Republican so they still have
a chance as does he if he
can win the rustbelt again as
he did in 2016 against Hillary but failed to in 2020 against Biden
1 in 4 will have to declare effective bankruptcy as Social Care Costs continue to increase faster than revenue....
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/councils-in-crisis-one-in-four-go-bust-budget-rachel-reeves-n3c5w08r2
There really is no money available anywhere....
But we’ve already run out of money. The outgoing government tried to bribe the voters with two very expensive NI cuts which have used up the entire fiscal headroom. The new government refusing to reverse these leaves us in a pretty poor position. Not a precarious one - our government bond yields aren’t doing anything worrying and our deficit position is better than several peers, so much so that the pound has been rising.
But there’s not going to be money for a spending bonanza anytime soon. It’s another decade of austerity ahead. Chronic austerity.
Court sitting days have reduced again while court cases are now being scheduled well into 2026...
By spouting bigoted crap they come across as little different to Trump.
Is it in the same way that Jack Russell never stood up to quick bowlers, perchance?
The public gets what the public wants.
Without productivity increases the wage increases feed through to price / tax / borrowing increases.
Unfortunately, no one seems celver enough to do it.
10% increases in council tax for a few years would be one way.
Better still would be a council tax revaluation with bands extended to Z.
But that might take a few years to implement.
In some ways the pay off to train drivers kind of fits that narrative. We know that there is a cost to the economy from train strikes (and NHS strikes). If the pay off is less than the total cost to the economy isn’t it worth doing it?
Not all wealth can be moved, of course. Council tax on steroids is possible. Or you could drive farmers into bankruptcy (the pre-election murmuring about imposing inheritance tax on farms might come true).
Even if you can't improve the productivity of public sector roles, the cost can still go up, and the kind of wishful thinking Sunak and Hunt indulged in won't change that.
Although that does remind me why I preferred the easier solution of just taxing based on estimated property value rather than land value based taxes...